UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email An exit poll suggested Thursday that Geert Wilders’ far-right party and a center-left-alliance were neck-and-neck in Dutch elections for the European Union parliament.In a possible harbinger of strong electoral gains for the hard right in the Europe Union, the exit poll indicated that Wilders’ Party for Freedom had made the biggest gains — winning seven seats, up from just one in the last parliament.The poll of some 20,000 voters published by national broadcaster NOS predicted that the center left alliance would win eight of the 31 European Parliament seats up for grabs in the Netherlands.Having sent shockwaves around Europe six months ago by becoming the biggest party in the Dutch national parliament, Wilders now wants to build on that popularity and set the tone for much of the bloc, with calls to claw powers back to national capitals and away from the EU so member states have more autonomy on issues such as migration. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage’s decision to stand as a candidate in the general election has given his party Reform UK a three point boost a new poll has suggested.The weekly tracker poll by Techne UK for The Independent has registered Reform’s support climbing from 12 points to 15 in the week since Farage made his dramatic announcement in the seaside town of Clacton.Meanwhile, following the television debate between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer, the Tories and Labour both lost a point in support dropping to 44 percent and 20 percent respectively.The Lib Dems were down one to 10 percent and Greens remained the same on 6 percent.Loading….This is the third poll to suggest a surge in support for Reform UK on the right splitting the Tory vote. A Yougov poll last night put them within two points of the Conservatives on 17 percent and 19 percent while another today had them both even at 18 percent.Former Tory cabinet minister Nadine Dorries, a Boris Johnson loyalist who publicly fell out with Mr Sunak, predicted that Reform would go ahead of the Conservatives in a poll by the weekend as a result of Farage standing.It was revealed by The Independent that Mr Sunak had been offered a deal which could have prevented Farage from running but rejected it.The event will mark Mr Farage’s first debate appearance since his shock takeover as leader of Reform UK (James Manning/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour’s manifesto will include a plan to officially recognise a Palestinian state “as part of the peace process”, The Independent can reveal.The bold new move also takes aim at Israel, saying that “neighbours should not be able to veto” the recognition of Palestine.The eye-catching commitment is aimed at resolving deep differences within Labour, which have given rise to huge splits between its left and centre and saw Muslim voters punish the party in the local elections last month.With thousands of Labour members involved in the weekly pro-Palestine marches, and concerns that Muslim voters are turning their backs on the party, Sir Keir Starmer has moved to try to reunify the warring factions ahead of the election.But it may be too late to convince those who have been angered by his support for Israel alongside what was seen as a purge of pro-Palestinian candidates including Faiza Shaheen, the candidate for Chingford and Woodford Green, who was replaced by a member of the Jewish Labour Movement. Details of Keir Starmer’s manifesto have been revealed – including a plan to recognise a Palestinian state More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailTory chairman Richard Holden is facing demands that he is deselected as the candidate for Billericay and Basildon in yet another sign of chaos in the party’s election campaign.Just 24 hours after Mr Holden was imposed on a reluctant constituency association in Essex, The Independent has seen a letter to the association chairman from members demanding a special general meeting to deselect Mr Holden.The row is a huge distraction for the man who is supposed to be running the Tory election machine to try to retain power with the party more than 20 points behind in the polls.Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden leaves Downing Street, London, following a Cabinet meeting (James Manning/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Britain’s July 4 election is less than a month away. The campaign has already produced drama and disputes, even before the parties unveil their manifestos with detailed lists of promises in the coming days.This week saw Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Labour Party rival, Keir Starmer, spar in their first televised debate, and populist firebrand Nigel Farage return to dent Conservative hopes of retaining power after 14 years in office.Here are some things we’ve learned: FARAGE IS BACK — AND THE TORIES ARE WORRIED Populist firebrand Nigel Farage, whose years of invective against the European Union helped push Britain out of the bloc, sent tremors through the campaign when he announced Monday that he would run for Parliament at the helm of the right-wing party Reform U.K.Days earlier, Farage had said he wouldn’t be a candidate because it was more important to support his ally Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election in November.Farage has failed in seven previous attempts to win a House of Commons seat but stands a good chance of ousting the Conservative incumbent in the eastern England coastal town of Clacton-on-Sea.Reform is unlikely to win many other seats, but Farage’s return caused gloom in Conservative ranks. In 2019 the Farage-led Brexit Party, precursor to Reform, decided not to run against the Conservatives in hundreds of seats, a move that helped Boris Johnson secure an 80-seat Conservative majority.Now Reform could siphon votes from the Tories across the country, helping Labour and the centrist Liberal Democrats win more seats.“The Farage intervention makes a very bad election for the Conservatives potentially even worse,” said Philip Cowley, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “There will be plenty of seats in which there will be a decent Reform showing. … (and) they take more votes from the Conservatives than they take from Labour.” TUSSLES OVER TAX The two men vying to become Britain’s next prime minister, Sunak and Starmer, debated on live television Tuesday. It was a tetchy, inconclusive event that saw neither land decisive blows.The most memorable — and contested — soundbite was Sunak’s claim that Labour’s plans would mean a 2,000 pound ($2,550) tax increase for every British household. Starmer didn’t rebut the claim until Sunak had said it several times, but then dismissed it as “garbage.”Labour claims the figure is misleading. For one thing, Sunak didn’t make clear that 2,000 pounds was the alleged increase over four years, not annually.It’s also based on disputed figures about Labour’s plans drawn up by the Conservative Party and then submitted to the Treasury for analysis. Sunak claimed the figure had been approved by “independent Treasury officials.”But it turned out that the top civil servant at the Treasury, James Bowler, had written to the Conservatives before the debate to say the figures “should not be presented as having been produced by the Civil Service.”Labour then went on the offensive, calling the figure fake news. Starmer said Sunak had “lied deliberately” with the tax claim. PERSISTENT POLLS The left-of-center Labour Party remains favorite to win the most seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. While major pollsters give varying figures, all show a double-digit Labour lead, with relatively little change since Sunak called the election on May 22.Pollster Ipsos gave Labour a 20-point lead, supported by 43% of voters to the Conservatives’ 23%, in a poll released Thursday. The pollster interviewed 1,014 U.K. adults by phone, and the margin of error was three percentage points.Cowley said that while things can change quickly in politics, “this is a government that’s tremendously unpopular, and people want rid of it.”“Once people have decided that, it’s very difficult to turn it around,” he said. MILKSHAKE MESS This week also saw the return of milkshakes as an instrument of political protest.Farage was doused with a McDonald’s shake as he left his boisterous campaign launch in Clacton. A 25-year-old local woman, Victoria Thomas Bowen, has been charged with assault.Milkshakes became an unlikely political weapon during Britain’s acrimonious disputes over Brexit after the 2016 referendum. Farage was one of several politicians splattered with a sticky beverage in 2019. “Milkshaking” — the act of dousing public figures in milkshakes — was officially recognized by Collins Dictionary the same year.Farage’s political opponents stressed that the sticky attack was no laughing matter in a polarized political atmosphere where threats against politicians are growing. Two British lawmakers, Jo Cox and David Amess, have been murdered in the past decade while meeting constituents.Labour’s law-and-order spokesperson Yvette Cooper said the dousing was a “disgraceful assault on Nigel Farage.”“Completely unacceptable and wrong. No one should face intimidation or assault in an election campaign,” she wrote on social network X. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailVoters are split over Rishi Sunak’s highly controversial claim in the TV debate with Sir Keir Starmer that Labour would put up taxes by £2,000 per person.More than one in three (34 per cent) believe the prime minister was telling the truth, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.However, slightly more (38 per cent) say the claim was false while a total of 28 per cent said they did not know if it was true or false.The survey, by Redfield and Wilton, appeared to suggest not only that voters believed the Labour leader more but even identified him on balance as the debate winner from Tuesday night.A total of 38 per cent say he won the confrontation, while 32 per cent say Mr Sunak had the upper hand. The remaining 30 per cent said neither emerged as winner or declined to offer an opinion.The poll follows a fierce row over Sunak’s £2,000 Labour tax hike allegation. The Treasury chief mandarin disowned the figures and Sir Keir angrily claimed the prime minister had “lied.” The UK Statistics Authority is also investigating the Tories after the prime minister’s claim.For a third consecutive day, the row exploded again with the Tories claiming that Labour plans 10 new tax rises and providing a link to the Treasury analysis on the costs of the opposition’s spending plans. Their attack was partly based on claims Labour would introduce a “retirement tax” by not matching their triple lock plus commitment of not taxing the state pension.But Labour’s shadow chief Treasury secretary Darren Jones had already challenged the Tories to a debate on the £2,000 figure while Sir Keir had accused Mr Sunak of lying on the issue.Responding today, Tory chief Trasury secretary Laura Trott said: “The prime minister warned this week that Keir Starmer would put up taxes on working families by £2,094 to fill Labour’s £38.5 billion black hole.“After spending two days accusing others of lying and ordering his team to dodge questions from the media, the truth has now emerged: he is secretly preparing more than 10 new tax rises later this year. Keir Starmer has a long track record of breaking pledges.“He thinks he can coast to victory with a blank cheque then pretend he has a mandate to raise taxes, raid pensions and impose a Retirement Tax. He now urgently needs to level with the British people about which taxes he wants to increase and by how much.”Meanwhile, the poll also found that Mr Sunak scores badly compared to his opponents Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage on the right.When asked to choose between all three Sir Keir easily topped for poll for standing up for the UK best, standing up for the little guy, strong leader, most charismatic, tells it like it is, knows how to get things done, reprsents change, has ambition, can build a strong economy, can fix the NHS, and can deal with immigration.Mr Sunak did not top any categories while Mr Farage was first in stop the boats.Redfield and Wilton interviewed 2,000 adults online on June 5-6. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailTories in the nominally safe seat of Basildon and Billericay in Essex have spoken of their fury over the way in which party chair Richard Holden was forced on them as their general election candidate last night.It comes after embarrassing video footage of Mr Holden, recorded in February, emerged, in which he describes how he is “loyal to the North East” of England and denies he is seeking a safe seat elsewhere.Mr Holden was the MP for North West Durham, which ceased to exist following the boundary review, but rejected the opportunity to stand in neighbouring Bishop Auckland, which was won for the Tories by Dehenna Davison in 2019.Instead, his hunt for a safe seat became an issue of contention between ordinary party activists in local associations and the Rishi Sunak leadership team in CCHQ (party headquarters).Tory chair Richard Holden is now the candidate for Basildon and Billericay More