UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailOne of the architects of the Vote Leave Brexit referendum victory in 2016 and Boris Johnson election win in 2019 has warned that the Tory leadership’s new strategy is likely to be counterproductive and see voters stay at home.Lee Cain, who was Boris Johnson’s communications director in Downing Street, has hit out at the Conservative Party now warning against a Labour “supermajority” suggesting that his experience showed it would suppress the Tory vote.Taking to X (formerly Twitter) Mr Cain, who has founded Charlesbye Strategy, was highly critical of the line put out by defence secretary Grant Shapps yesterday amid serious concerns that Tory voters are switching to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK or staying at home.Lee Cain is unimpressed by the latest More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLeaked posts from a Tory members-only Facebook group have revealed the deep discontent in Rishi Sunak’s Sky News debate performance on Wednesday evening.The Conservatives Party Members Group, a private group for verified members, has more than 3,000 Conservative members including MPs such as Andrew Rosindell, Joy Morrisey, John Penrose and Virginia Crosby. Previously, The Independent revealed their angry reaction to Mr Sunak’s ITV clash with Sir Keir Starmer in the first debate of the election.Now, in the two men’s second debate, the reviews emerging from the group are equally scathing.Prime minister Rishi Sunak tried to win over the audience on Sky News on Wednesday evening More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailBritain’s ageing and sickly population will start adding a further £20bn a year to the welfare bill by 2029, according to analysis that lays bare the financial challenges of the next government.The booming spending is fuelled by guarantees for pensioners, such as both main parties’ commitment to the pensions Triple Lock, and a growing number of people claiming disability or incapacity benefits, research by think tank Resolution Foundation has found. The welfare bill is forecast to increase by £20.8bn in the year 2028-29 financial year, and increase by £60bn in total over the next four years as spending rises. Nearly half of the forecasted increase in welfare spending will be driven by the cost of the State Pension between 2024 and 2029. Researchers expect a real-term rise of £9.5bn annually by 2029. This is due to an 8.2 per cent increase in the number of pensioners and a 3.6 per cent rise in the real value of the State Pension due to the Triple Lock guarantee, which means pensions rise by average earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent, whichever is highest, each year.Spending on disability and incapacity benefits will also be a large and growing cost for any future government. These benefits account for 47 per cent of the projected boom in welfare spending, due to an expected increase in the number of people who will not be able to work due to disability and ill health. An additional 2.8 million people in the past four years have started claiming health-related benefits More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer faced audience questions on Sky News on Wednesday night as the general election campaign went to Grimsby.The two party leaders were grilled by political editor Beth Rigby, before taking questions from voters from the northeast town and across the country.The prime minister and Labour leader set out their parties’ visions for the country, answering questions on the economy, the NHS and immigration.Here are five key moments from the exchanges:Sunak and Starmer in the debate More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s seemingly inevitable path to defeat in the election saw him take another blow tonight after a snap poll of viewers of the Sky News debate with Keir Starmer saw him lose by almost two to one.According to the YouGov survey of 1,864 voters who watched the two take questions in Grimsby, 64 per cent named Sir Keir as the winner and 36 per cent Mr Sunak.It was a blow for a prime minister who needed to use the debate as a means of reigniting his campaign, which has seen the Tories trail Labour by more than 20 points and been dogged by a series of missteps.Noticeably he did not repeat his line from the first debate that Labour would raise taxes by £2,000 for which Sir Keir had accused him of “lying”, after the Treasury’s most senior civil servant disowned the figure. But the opposition leader also only once referred to Labour’s claim that the Tories would lead to a mortgage payment increase of £4,800 over five years after that figure also drew ridicule.Sunak answers questions More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s faltering election campaign took another hit as a snap poll found Sir Keir Starmer won Wednesday night’s TV debate by a significant margin.A YouGov survey conducted after Sky’s Battle for Number 10 found that two-thirds of voters felt the Labour leader performed better than Mr Sunak in the clash.Some 64 per cent said Sir Keir performed better, with 36 per cent saying the prime minister was the winner. YouGov spoke to 1,864 voters shortly after the debate, during which the two leaders were grilled on their plans for government.The debate followed another frantic day on the campaign trail, during which Mr Sunak was forced to push back on suggestions that Labour was on course for a “supermajority” come 5 July.Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, claimed that Labour could record an even bigger victory than the 1997 landslide won by Tony Blair as he urged Reform voters to back his party.( More