UK Politics

Rishi Sunak repeatedly refused to say whether he told his parliamentary aide about the date of the general election, as the Metropolitan Police said they were investigating a “small number” of bets on the 4 July poll.So far five Conservatives are known to have been caught up in the Gambling Commission inquiry, including the prime minister’s former parliamentary aide, Craig Williams.During a campaign visit in Derbyshire, Mr Sunak was repeatedly asked whether he had confided in Mr Williams ahead of his surprise announcement of a summer election.“I’ve been clear about this. I’m furious to have learnt about these allegations,” he responded, refusing to directly answer the question. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email An Albanian prison cell wouldn’t rank high among choice spots to run a successful campaign for election to the European Parliament.Fredis Beleris, a member of Albania’s ethnic Greek minority, had no choice. Last year he was elected mayor of a town in southern Albania — a candidate to join the European Union — but lost his office and is serving a two-year sentence for vote-buying in that election.The case soured relations between the two Balkan neighbors and led to the dual Greek-Albanian citizen’s election on June 9 to represent EU member Greece in the European Parliament. He ran on the ticket of Greece’s governing center-right party.“I know (my election) will help put a spotlight on a major problem Albania faces, which is the rule of law,” Beleris told The Associated Press in a phone interview Thursday from prison.“Here, the judiciary is the long arm of politics,” he added. “I think these problems must be brought to the fore — lack of respect for the Greek ethnic minority’s rights, such as the right to property … and to be governed by the people it elects.”Beleris’ election isn’t unique. An Italian leftwing activist held in pretrial detention in EU member Hungary was released after her election to the European Parliament on an Italian party’s ballot. Members of the legislature enjoy substantial legal immunity from prosecution within the 27-state EU, even if the allegations relate to crimes committed prior to their election. But Albania is not an EU member, and unlike Beleris, the new Italian MEP had not been convicted in court. Athens described Beleris’ detention and trial as politically motivated and implied Albania’s prospects of joining the EU would suffer. The case is complicated by fractious Balkan politics, minority rights and property disputes on a prime coastal stretch of what’s marketed as the Albanian Riviera, the top tourist destination in the country.Some 10 million tourists visited the small country last year, contributing about a fifth of the economy.“I had no intention of entering politics in Greece, it was because of the need to highlight this huge problem,” Beleris said. “Anybody who knows me knows for sure that I would prefer to have been mayor.”Beleris, 51, was arrested two days before the May 14, 2023 municipal elections in Himare, on the Albanian Riviera, 220 kilometers (140 miles) southwest of the capital Tirana. He was charged with offering some 40,000 Albanian leks (360 euros; $390) to buy eight votes.He won with a 19-vote lead, backed by the ethnic Greek minority party and others opposing Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama’s governing Socialists. But he never took office, being detained until his court conviction in March. An appeals court upheld the ruling Tuesday.Beleris denies the charges, claiming that Prime Minister Rama directly targeted him to keep control of Himare, and that judges ignored evidence in his favor.Albanian officials strongly reject his claims, citing the independence of the judiciary.Judicial corruption has long plagued post-communist Albania. The system recently underwent deep reforms, following EU and U.S. pressure to root out bribery and ensure judges are independent from politics.Beleris said he believes that at the heart of his case are “huge financial interests as far as tourist development is concerned.”“But it’s also that the Albanian prime minister doesn’t want the local (ethnic) Greek population to share in that prosperity,” he said. “That’s a direct breach of our human and minority rights.”Relations between Greece and Albania have been at times uneasy, largely over minority rights and the sizeable Albanian migrant community in Greece.Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has strongly backed Beleris, giving him a place on his New Democracy party’s ticket. Beleris won some 235,000 votes, coming in fourth among the seven MEPs the party elected.Mitsotakis’ move came as ND was struggling to staunch a leak of votes from its traditional conservative base towards small far-right parties. Greece is also at loggerheads with another small Balkan neighbor and EU hopeful, North Macedonia, and has suggested that that country’s efforts to join the bloc could also suffer in consequence.So far, the EU Commission has treated the Beleris matter as a bilateral dispute. EU membership talks with Albania and North Macedonia started in 2022 and are expected to last for years.“I think Albania must join the European Union sooner or later, but … with the rules and the rule of law that befit a European country,” Beleris said.___Llazar Semini in Tirana, Albania, contributed. More

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insightThe sheer scale of the collapse in support for Tories in the opinion polls begs a question as the election approaches: Who are the party faithful, still willing to back Rishi Sunak?Recent polls have the Conservatives’ voting intention at about 19 per cent – less than half the 43.6 per cent vote share of 2019.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called an election for 4 July after months of speculation about an autumn date. Since then, the campaign has been plagued by scandals, from the PM leaving D-Day early to alleged betting by politicians and campaign officials.With a resurgent Reform UK eating into the vote share under Nigel Farage, the Conservatives look all but defeated as the race enters its final week.Who is still voting Tory?While the odds are strongly against a general election victory, one in five voters are still planning to back the Conservatives at the polls.The current average Tory voter is aged 62, voted for Brexit, and has voted Conservative in previous elections. Polling from More In Common shows that Tory voters are slightly more likely to be white, and more than half are comfortable financially.Ed Hodgson, research manager at More In Common, said many Tory voters are fearful about Labour’s approach to the economy. “Most current Conservative voters have real concerns about the idea of a Labour government,” he said. “Many of them are instinctively cautious about Labour. They are receptive to arguments that Labour will increase taxes, mishandle the economy, or that a ‘supermajority’ will create an unopposed Labour government.” He said those issues are raised in focus groups, where Tory supporters frequently raise the famous “I’m afraid there is no money” note, left by Labour’s Liam Byrne, chief secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown, in 2010 for the incoming coalition government.Polling shows the Tories have no particular advantage among voters aged 55-64, of whom 18 per cent say they are voting for the party – just below the national average.The strongest group of Tory supporters by far remains the over-65s, a third of whom say they will vote blue next week. This jumps to 40 per cent when looking at the over-70s.Around 1.3 million people who voted Conservative in 2019 have since died – nearly 10 per cent of supporters. With the majority of Tory support clustered in the older age brackets, the Tories may have a serious demographic problem, not just in this election but also in the next.Despite apocalyptic projections of a Labour landslide from top pollsters, the Tories are still forecast to win with a margin of over 5 per cent in 106 constituencies, according to More In Common’s June MRP. These include large margins in constituencies such as Sevenoaks, Maldon, and Hinckley and Bosworth.In national voting intention polls, those in the North East of England are slightly more likely to vote Conservative, at 23 per cent compared to the national average of 19 per cent, as are those in the South East, with 21 per cent.While there has historically been a gender gap among Tory voters, with more men voting Conservative (47 per cent) in the 2019 election compared to 42 per cent of women, that gap is now less wide.Support among men is currently at 20 per cent, compared to 18 per cent among women.In fact, the real right-wing gender gap exists among Reform supporters.  A much higher proportion of men (16 per cent) are turning to the more right-wing party, compared to the proportion of women (10 per cent).Mr Hodgson said current Conservative voters are more positive about Sunak than the rest of the country. “They think he did a good job as chancellor, getting us through the pandemic, and tend to blame recent issues with the government on the Conservative party not properly backing the prime minister,” he said. “The same cannot be said for their views about Nigel Farage, who Conservative voters understand the appeal of, but don’t like the tone in which he conducts his politics and have an instinctive distrust of.”Of Conservative voters in 2019, 23 per cent say they will go over to Reform UK, 13 per cent to Labour and 4 per cent to the Liberal Democrats. Half are staying loyal and the remainder are undecided.A separate poll by More In Common has shown that Brexit voters are split between the right-wing parties, with a third voting Tory and a third Reform.When it comes to top issues on the ballot, all voters rank the NHS and cost of living as a primary concern, but the average Conservative voter is much more preoccupied with immigration and twice as likely to see the war in Ukraine as a factor impacting their vote. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe blame game has already begun within the Tories as the party prepares to face what could be the most catastrophic defeat in its history in just a week.With seven days to go, polls suggest that the Conservative Party is on the brink of a wipeout with a strong possibility it will get less than 100 MPs elected.While fingers have been pointed by different factions behind the scenes for months even before the election, senior figures are now breaking ranks to give their verdicts even before most voters have cast their votes.First out of the traps was former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries who has told The Independent that she blames Michael Gove for a malaise that has set in over the last 14 years and is demanding he does not get a seat in the Lords – just as she was denied one.Gove has been blamed by Dorries More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has been branded “desperate” after the Conservatives released their latest shock election poster. The prime minister highlighted the attack advert, which depicts three people, including a child, with their hands in the air as if at gunpoint and urges voters not to “surrender” to Labour.The message is one the Prime Minister repeated more than a dozen times during his final head-to-head TV debate with Sir Keir Starmer on Wednesday.The Labour leader said during a campaign visit to Staffordshire that he was “surprised” by the use of the image.”This is really desperate stuff and I’m surprised by it,” he said. “I think it underlines the difference between the two campaigns now.”Others also attacked the poster.Brendan Cox, who was married to murdered MP Jo Cox, tweeted: “Labour are going to gun down your family. Don’t pretend you weren’t warned… Er…”The Tory leader defended the imagery during his on trip to Derbyshire, saying: “This is an incredibly important election, and there’s an important choice for people. And I don’t want people to sleepwalk into something.”He said a Labour government “would be very damaging for our country.”And he again conceded that the public is “frustrated with me and our party, but this is not a by-election. This is a choice about our future, and that choice will have severe consequences for people’s financial security.”During the BBC debate Mr Sunak urged voters not to “surrender” to Labour’s tax, welfare and migration plans.Sunak has been branded ‘desperate’ More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailPolished boots clatter over the cobbles as a group of uniformed military officers emerge from a flag-raising ceremony onto Richmond’s bustling marketplace.Many stride away in search of lunch after an hour spent in Friary Gardens, where the war memorial stands for the fallen of this historic town in Rishi Sunak’s constituency on the edge of the Yorkshire Dales national park.Among those who step into the midday sunshine is 69-year-old Paul Betteridge, proudly wearing his campaign medals and a blazer bearing the emblem of his former regiment, Third Royal Tanks, to celebrate Armed Forces Day.Their motto – “Fear nought” – could, for more than a century, have applied to the Conservative Party in this safest of safe Tory seats. But this year, something feels different.Betteridge and his wife Beryl, also 69, shake their heads and laugh when asked how they rate Sunak’s chances of being returned as Richmond’s MP, let alone prime minister.Paul and Beryl Betteridge are not optimistic about Rishi Sunak’s chances: ‘It’s been a disastrous campaign, and the Conservatives needed a good one more than ever’ More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAnother senior Tory has become embroiled in the election betting scandal after allegedly placing an £8,000 bet that he would lose his seat.Sir Philip Davies is accused of betting he would lose his Shipley seat in West Yorkshire at the upcoming election. “What’s it got to do with you whether I did or didn’t,” the Conservative candidate, defending a majority of 6,242, told The Sun, adding that the bet was “nobody’s business”.“I hope to win. I’m busting a gut to win. I expect to lose. In the 2005 election, I busted a gut to win. I expected to lose. I had a bet on myself to lose in the 2005 election, and my bet went down the pan,” Sir Philip told the newspaper.“And if anyone’s alleging I have done anything illegal, they’re very welcome to allege it, but I’m afraid I haven’t.”Tory MP Philip Davies denied ‘doing anything illegal’ More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe former owner of Newcastle United and a long-time donor to the Conservatives Sir John Hall has endorsed Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.Sir John told ITV that the Tories “are not representing my views” and Reform will “fight for my English rights and customs”.He added that he “doesn’t join parties, but will donate to Reform”.Sir John, who helped fund Theresa May’s disastrous 2017 election, has given more than £500,000 to the Conservatives. But he said he was a “disillusioned Conservative,” adding: “I just feel in these latter years, they’ve let me down.”Sir John Hall More