UK Politics

Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections key statistics and benchmarksSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailVoters go to the polls on Thursday in two parliamentary by-elections, with electoral contests taking place in Northamptonshire and South Gloucestershire.Helen Harrison is running for the Conservative Party in Wellingborough, after her disgraced partner Peter Bone lost the seat in a recall petition having been suspended over bullying and sexual misconduct claims he denies.Mr Bone had a majority of 18,540 in what has been traditionally a safe seat for the Tories. Ms Harrison is running against Labour’s Gen Kitchen and nine other candidates. Labour and the Tories will also battle it out for the Kingswood constituency in South Gloucestershire, vacated by Chris Skidmore, who resigned in protest at the government’s plans to boost North Sea oil and gas drilling.Sam Bromiley will be defending a majority of 11,220 for the Conservatives against Labour’s candidate Damien Egan and five other candidates. The Kingswood constituency will be abolished at the next general election – which has to take place by law no later than January 2025 – meaning that whoever wins the contest will represent the seat for only a few months.Show latest update 1707951632Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections: Key statisticsIf the Conservatives lose one or both of Thursday’s by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough, it would mean the government has clocked up more by-election defeats in a single parliament than any government since the 1960s.The Tories’ current tally of by-election losses since the 2019 general election is eight: Chesham & Amersham and North Shropshire in 2021 (both gained by the Liberal Democrats); Tiverton & Honiton and Wakefield in 2022 (won by the Lib Dems and Labour respectively); and Selby & Ainsty, Somerton & Frome, Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth in 2023 (all Labour gains except Somerton & Frome, which was won by the Lib Dems).The last government to lose this many by-elections during a single parliament was the 1992-97 Conservative administration led by John Major.If the Tories lose one or both of Thursday’s contests, it would bring to nine or 10 the number of defeats so far this parliament: more than any previous government since the 1966-70 Labour administration of Harold Wilson, which endured 15 losses.Even accounting for the Conservatives’ one by-election gain this parliament – winning Hartlepool from Labour in 2021 – a double defeat on Thursday would bring the party’s overall by-election scorecard to nine net losses (10 defeats, one gain).This would still be worse than any government since 1966-70.Katy Clifton14 February 2024 23:001707944432Who is Wellingborough candidate Helen Harrison? The Conservatives have three challenging by-elections to contest in February, with the Northamptonshire seat of Wellingborough looming large in the public eye. Up for grabs after the departure of disgraced former MP Peter Bone, the local Conservative Party have selected his partner – Helen Harrison – as his replacement candidate. Wellingborough’s former MP Peter Bone was suspended from Parliament for six weeks last year, following a watchdog report into his behaviour. The independent panel found he had bullied and indecently exposed himself to a member of staff, allegations which he continues to deny.Ms Harrison has stood by her partner, telling the BBC that she believes the panel “got it wrong”. The former physiotherapist insists she is “proud” to have Mr Bone on the campaign trail with her, and that voters have not been raising the issue on the doorstep.Read more below: Albert Toth 14 February 2024 21:001707936344Wellinborough profileThe Northamptonshire constituency was won by Peter Bone for the Conservatives at every general election from 2005 to 2019.He increased the Tories’ share of the vote at each poll, pushing it up from 43% in 2005 to 48% in 2010, 52% in 2015, 57% in 2017 and 62% in 2019.Labour came second in four of the five contests, the exception being 2015 when Ukip was runner-up.Further back, Labour won Wellingborough at the 1997 and 2001 general elections.The chain of events that led to the by-election began when Mr Bone received a six-week suspension from the House of Commons after an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct.The suspension triggered a recall petition in his constituency which was signed by more than 10% of voters – the threshold for an MP to be removed from their seat.The by-election is similar to Kingswood in that is it a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Labour.However, the swing needed by Labour to win the seat is larger, at 17.9 percentage points – in other words, the equivalent of a net change of 18 in every 100 people who voted Tory in 2019 switching sides.This is still a smaller swing than the ones managed by Labour in 2023 at the by-elections in Tamworth, Selby & Ainsty and Mid Bedfordshire.There are 11 candidates standing in this by-election: Nick the Flying Brick (Official Monster Raving Loony), Ana Gunn (Liberal Democrat), Ben Habib (Reform), Helen Harrison (Conservative), Ankit Love Jknpp Jay Mala Post-Mortem (no description), Gen Kitchen (Labour), Alex Merola (Britain First), Will Morris (Green), Andre Pyne-Bailey (Independent), Marion Turner-Hawes (no description) and Kev Watts (Independent).The constituency of Wellingborough is being replaced at the next general election by the new seat of Wellingborough & Rushden. 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Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Tories are facing an electoral wipeout that would leave them with just 80 seats, the lowest ever total for the Conservative Party, a bombshell new poll shows.Rishi Sunak is on course to lose more than three quarters of the Tories’ seats, the survey of 18,000 voters suggests.As well as spelling near-wipeout for the Conservatives, the shock poll shows seventeen ministers are set to lose their seats, including Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan and Mel Stride.Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer will face off at a general election this yearThe poll, by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, showed Sir Keir Starmer on course to win an even bigger landslide than Sir Tony Blair in 1997, with a majority of 254.And the survey, reported by The Daily Mirror, showed Labour’s support among voters at 42 per cent, with a 20-point lead over the Tories on 20 per cent.The survey was conducted using the MRP (multilevel regression and poststratification) method that successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections.It found voters top concerns were health, the economy and immigration, while the most popular policies included building more homes and nationalising utility firms.In total, Labour would win 452 seats, 249 more than currently, with the Conservatives losing 285 seats to hold just 80.The Liberal Democrats and Green Party are also set to make gains, while the poll suggested the SNP could lose eight seats to a resurgent Scottish Labour.The poll will offer some much-needed comfort for Sir Keir after he faced two of the most difficult weeks of his leadership of the Labour Party so far.He has been dogged by claims that he flip-flops on key decisions after the fudged announcement that he was dropping Labour’s key £28bn per year green spending pledge.Labour instead replaced the measure with plans to spend £23.7 billion over the course of the next parliament.He has also been rocked by an antisemitism scandal after Rochdale by-election candidate Azhar Ali was recorded making antisemitic remarks.After some of Mr Ali’s remarks, claiming Israel had allowed the October 7 Hamas terror attacks to go ahead, Sir Keir sought to stand by the Labour candidate.But, after facing a media storm, and further remarks being made public, Sir Keir dropped his support for Mr Ali.Another Labour candidate was then accused of antisemitism for being recorded at the same meeting appearing to refer to “f***ing Israel” and appeared to say that Britons who volunteer to fight for the Israel Defense Forces “should be locked up”.It all came as a separate poll by Savanta showed Labour’s lead over the Tories falling to its lowest since last June. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA third Labour politician who attended a now notorious council meeting which sparked renewed antisemitism concerns within the party has been spoken to by party officials as they investigate what happened.Sir Keir Starmer’s party has been pitched into a deepening row about the handling of antisemitism allegations, with parliamentary candidate Graham Jones suspended on Tuesday, only a day after Labour was forced to suspend and withdraw its backing for Rochdale by-election candidate Azhar Ali. Mr Ali had claimed Israel allowed the 7 October Hamas attack to take place to lay the ground for an invasion of Gaza. He later apologised. At the same meeting, former MP Graham Jones, who had been selected to run for his old Hyndburn seat again, referred to “f***ing Israel” and appeared to say that Britons who volunteer to fight for the Israel Defence Forces “should be locked up”.It has now emerged that Hyndburn councillor Munsif Dad, who leads the local authority’s Labour group, is thought to have been at the gathering where two parliamentary candidates are alleged to have made antisemitic remarks.There is no suggestion that Mr Dad, who leads the local authority’s Labour group, made inappropriate comments at the meeting and no further action has been taken.The meeting has reignited fears of widespread antisemitism within the Labour Party among Jewish members, with some pointing to Israel’s military action in Gaza as having sparked a “huge spike in antisemitism”.Mike Katz, chairman of the Jewish Labour Movement (JLM), called for the party to step up checks on candidates selected before the Hamas terror attacks and training for candidates to be able to recognise and combat antisemitism.He told The Independent: “I think the party should bear in mind that the level of antisemitic conspiracy theory and misinformation on social media has really increased since October 7, and go back over to check again what people have said and what they have posted.”As the fallout from the controversial meeting grew:The SNP threatened to reopen Labour divisions on the Middle East by forcing a Gaza ceasefire motion to be voted on in the CommonsMomentum slammed Labour for suspending “disproportionately Black and brown MPs” over their support for PalestineLabour’s poll lead over the Tories fell to its lowest level since last June as Sir Keir faces one of his most troubling spells since taking over the partyLabour pledged to investigate all allegations of antisemitism and “take it seriously” Mr Katz said: “Obviously a lot of candidates were selected well before then and are out campaigning in their seats.“It is not about political expediency. It is to make sure people understand and recognise antisemitism and discrimination, and are willing to call it out, wherever they see it, as part of their role in promoting community cohesion.”Meanwhile, Dame Louise Ellman, a Jewish former MP who quit Labour in 2019 over antisemitism under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, said “proper scrutiny” had not been done over the candidates.Sir Keir Starmer claimed he took ‘decisive action’ suspending Azhar Ali after his antisemitic comments came to light She said Sir Keir was “a bit slow” to deal with the latest antisemitism crisis, which brought the party “into disrepute”.And, while Dame Louise told Times Radio that Labour has been “doing very well in rooting out antisemitism”, she described the latest scandal as “a setback”.The Campaign Against Antisemitism reminded Labour of its responsibility to train local activists and candidates to spot and tackle antisemitism. It said Labour “in particular” has a duty to do so because of the action plan to drive antisemitism out of the party agreed with the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC).A spokesman told The Independent: “Since we referred Labour to the EHRC and its investigation into the party, it has been clear that all political parties must rigorously vet their officers and candidates. Failure to do so will inevitably lead to scrutiny and scandal, as we have seen twice in Rochdale in as many days.”It came after Martin Forde KC, the lawyer who led a review into antisemitism in the party, said Labour’s handling of the crisis was “shambolic”.Labour initially backed Mr Ali, saying he had fallen for an online conspiracy theory. But the party dramatically dropped him on Monday night after it emerged that he had also blamed “people in the media from certain Jewish quarters” for fuelling criticism of a pro-Palestinian MP.Mr Ali will still appear as Labour’s candidate on the Rochdale ballot this month due to a deadline for removing candidates, but he will not be a Labour MP if he wins. The party has suspended Mr Jones pending an investigation and will likely pick a new candidate to contest Hyndburn at the general election.On Tuesday, shadow defence secretary John Healey said Labour will “follow the hard evidence” to ensure anyone who does not meet the standards of the party will be investigated. He said: “Anyone at that meeting, if there is evidence that they have, that people acted or spoke in a way that doesn’t meet the standards, or is incompatible with the values of our Labour Party, they need to report it, provide it and the Labour Party will take it seriously and investigate it. It’s what we do with every case.”Pushed on whether Mr Ali was properly vetted, Mr Healey said the Rochdale candidate was “widely respected” and “widely supported across communities, including the Jewish community in the North West”.The Conservatives have said the furore showed that claims Labour had changed under Sir Keir were “hollow”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email North Macedonia ’s parliament speaker on Wednesday formally set early parliamentary and presidential elections in the spring as the country makes a bid to join the European Union.Following opposition pressure, North Macedonia’s main political parties agreed in December to organize general elections on May 8, two months early. A caretaker government was appointed last month. Whoever forms the next government will face pressure from the European Union to approve unpopular constitutional changes as part of the country’s bid to join the bloc.The main opposition center-right VMRO-DPMNE party had long pressed for early elections, accusing the governing center-left Social Democrats and their junior coalition partners of corruption, nepotism and incompetence.Under the act signed Wednesday by parliament’s top official, Jovan Mitreski, the first round of the presidential election will be on April 24. The second will coincide with the May 8 parliamentary election.North Macedonia, together with neighboring Albania, began EU membership talks in 2022 and has been a candidate to join the bloc since 2005.Among other required membership criteria, the country must change its constitution to recognize an ethnic Bulgarian minority. That’s a highly contentious issue because of the overlapping histories and cultures of North Macedonia and neighboring Bulgaria.Constitutional changes require a two-thirds majority in parliament. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch as Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears before the House of Lords economic affairs committee on Wednesday 14 February.Inflation unexpectedly held steady last month as food prices fell for the first time in almost two-and-a-half years, official figures show.Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation remained unchanged at 4 per cent in January, lower than the 4.2 per cent that economists had forecast although still double the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.The monthly drop in food prices, of 0.4 per cent, was the first since September 2021, with the cost of bread and cereals, cream crackers and chocolate biscuits falling, the ONS said.While food and non-alcoholic beverage prices are still 7 per cent higher than a year ago, the category saw the slowest rate of increase since April 2022.On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices fell by 0.4 per cent between December and January. More