UK Politics

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insightRishi Sunak’s government has been urged to reassure Britons there will be no shortage of red roses for Valentine’s Day due to new Brexit checks.Fruit, vegetable and flower importers are urging the government to provide more detail on the wave of new red tape imposed on imports coming in at the end of January and April.And Dutch flower growers have called on Sunak government to delay the looming border controls – warning EU exporters are not ready.Labour MP Daniel Zeichner said British growers importing young plants, flowers seeds and other products were now “seriously worried” about the looming changes.The Horticultural Trade Association has warned that the process of importing a petunia plant from the Netherlands had gone from 19 to 59 steps, Mr Zeichner pointed out in the Commons.The MP asked: “So what’s the minister doing to ensure that we’ll have a plentiful supply of imported red roses for Valentine’s Day – especially for all those Conservatives on the other side who love each other so much?”Tory trade minister Greg Hands said the government had done a lot of work on the system for import checks “to make sure businesses are aware and the introduction of this will be staged”.Dover has seen waves of congestion and delay from post-Brexit rules Mr Hands said the new model will “simplify border processes for both imports and exports”, before going on to attack Labour’s plans for a new veterinary agreement with Brussels to ease trade friction.Mr Sunak’s government delayed the introduction of checks on EU imports until 2024 over fears the extra burden could push up food inflation, which is finally beginning to ease from the peaks of the cost of living crisis.New health certificates are required for imports from 31 January. Then there will be a further three months before sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks on medium-risk food, animal and plant products come into force on 30 April.Chris Bonnett, founder of Gardening Express, has warned the new checks could lead to a shortage of some flowers and plants. He said it is “likely that consumers will face the brunt of it all with increased prices of flowers and plants”.Earlier this month, the Dutch Association of Wholesalers in Floricultural Products said checks should be pushed back again until 2025 – warning of problems ahead of Valentine’s Day and Easter.James Barnes, chairman of the Horticultural Trades Association, has told the Financial Times that the new border system is “a disaster waiting to happen”.He added: “The fundamental issue is that the infrastructure isn’t in place to cope with the volume of trade that’s coming through.”The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) said the looming paperwork and inspections on imports could pose an “existential threat” to Britain’s horticultural businesses.The farming group said British growers who are dependent on young plants from the EU – such as soft fruits like strawberries and raspberries – look set to be hit by disruption. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has been warned that he will be breaking human rights law if his government ignores european court orders intended to stop asylum seekers being sent to Rwanda. The prime minister has repeatedly vowed not to let what he called a “foreign court” to block the government’s plan to send some migrants to the east-African nation. But the president of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), Síofra O’Leary, said on Thursday that “there is a clear legal obligation” for states to comply with orders from the Strasbourg court. Demands called rule 39 interim measures can be issued by the ECHR in certain circumstances, and one such order contributed to the 2022 grounding of the first flight intended to take asylum seekers to Rwanda. Sunak has been warned he could be breaking European human rights lawMs O’Leary told a press conference: “There is a clear legal obligation under the convention for states to comply with rule 39 measures.”She said the interim measures are only issued “in exceptional circumstances where there is a real and imminent risk of irreparable harm”. Senior judge Ms O’Leary said the UK “has always complied with rule 39 measures”, except in one very particular case, and has “publicly declared the need for other states to comply with rule 39 indications”.The UK had previously urged Vladimir Putin’s Russia to abide by a 2021 measure in relation to the release of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.No 10 rejected the criticism and insisted the government’s Rwanda legislation would not need any emergency interventions from the Strasbourg court.Mr Sunak’s official spokesman said: “We are confident our legislation is compliant with our international obligations … There should be no need for Strasburg to intervene to block flights in the way they did in 2022.”But the top No 10 official added: “We’ve also drafted the bill to give ministers the power not to comply with those rulings if necessary … The prime minister has been clear repeatedly that we will not let a foreign court block flights from taking off.”The spokesman said the combination of the Rwanda legislation and the new treaty with the African country would see off any need for a Rule 39 measure from the ECHR.UK had urged Putin’s Russia to abide by European court injunction in Alexei Navalny’s case No 10 also rejected any comparison as “bizarre” between the UK urging Russia to follow rule 39 injunctions over Navalny, and Tory ministers potentially ignoring the injunctions over Rwanda.Mr Sunak’s official spokesman said: “I think it would be bizarre to draw any comparison between Russia’s cruel treatment of Alexei Navalny … and our plan to protect and deter vulnerable migrants from making perilous crossings across the Channel.” The UK did not follow a rule 39 order in 2010 when the Strasbourg court tried to prevent British forces from transfering two men, who were suspected of being part of a plot to kill British servicemen, over to the Iraqi authorities. The UK transfered the pair despite the order. The Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill going through Parliament severely limits the ability of the UK courts to intervene to stop asylum seekers being sent to Rwanda. As a result, it will become more likely that these legal challenges end up in front of the Strasbourg Court. Mr Sunak has previously insisted that he “won’t allow a foreign court to block us from flights taking off”, telling reported: “My patience is worn thin, the British people’s patience is worn thin.”Asked directly if he would over-rule rule 39 orders from the ECHR, Mr Sunak said it would be “for ministers to decide whether to comply”. He added: “I would not have put that clause in the bill if I was not prepared to use it.”The Strasbourg court president would not be drawn on the Safety of Rwanda Bill while it goes through the parliamentary process.But she said: “I know there’s a very healthy debate in the United Kingdom relating to the content of the bill. It’s a country which is blessed with many, many international legal experts and a very active civil society. So I am sure that all of those issues can be fully examined.”In the Rwanda case in June 2022, the interim measure blocking an Iraqi asylum seeker being sent to the African state was granted just hours before the flight was due to take off.Ms O’Leary said rule 39 measures are almost always sought in “situations of urgency, if not extreme urgency, and the nature of the urgency or the degree of urgency is something which respondent governments control”.Dogs in the street know Rwanda flights won’t happen, says former Tory leaderThe interim injunction powers are rarely used – in 2023, 13 requests were refused by the court, and just one interim measure was granted.Rwanda has said that it would not be able to continue with the UK deal if Mr Sunak’s goverment did not abide by international law.Rwanda’s minister of foreign affairs Vincent Biruta has said previously: “It has always been important to both Rwanda and the UK that our rule of law partnership meets the highest standards of international law, and it places obligations on both the UK and Rwanda to act lawfully. “Without lawful behaviour by the UK, Rwanda would not be able to continue with the Migration and Economic Development Partnership.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAny tax cuts promised at the next general election will need to be quickly reversed, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned the government.In a bracing warning to the government, the think tank said Britain faces the worst debt challenge since the 1950s, the challenge of which cannot be “meaningfully confronted by a government that wilfully ignores reality”.The chancellor is said to be considering a package of tax cuts as part of a pre-election giveaway Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor of the exchequer, is said to be considering cuts to income tax or further cuts to national insurance in his March budget, as improved OBR forecasts suggest the chancellor has an extra £15bn to £20bn of headroom within his target to get debt falling in five years’ time.However, the IFS has today warned that the increasing cost of debt interest means this will prove more difficult to manage in the coming year than at any time for decades.The report said: “These challenges – unlike a conflict, pandemic or financial crisis – are entirely predictable. None can be meaningfully confronted by a government that wilfully ignores reality and the need to choose between difficult competing options. As tempting as it may be to engage in ‘cakeism’ – to seek to have the government’s fiscal cake and eat it – any party serious about governing after the election should resist the urge. The electorate surely deserves better than that.”Speaking at the annual World Economic Forum meeting, Mr Hunt said that countries with lower tax burdens have “dynamic, faster growing economies”.In last year’s autumn statement, Mr Hunt announced a £10bn National Insurance cut for millions, claiming the Conservatives have delivered the biggest tax cuts in decades.However, the UK’s overall tax burden as a percentage of national income is at a post-war record high, in part due to frozen tax thresholds.The government is now expected to be considering a larger package of tax cuts as part of their pre-election offering, in the hope of swaying voters towards the Conservatives.Yesterday, Sir Keir Starmer told journalists that he was concerned that the Tories would “salt the ground” by squandering money in pre-election tax cuts that would leave an incoming Labour administration vulnerable to poor public finances and difficult spending decisions.Keir Starmer said the conservatives are ‘not acting in the national interest’ with their tax-cutting agenda Now, the IFS has said prospects for any winning government are “miserable” due to weak economic growth and the cost-of-living crisis. It warned that Mr Hunt cannot “wish away” the likely prospect that any tax cuts in the spring will either lead to later tax rises or spending cuts as future governments try to grapple with the spiralling cost of debt and flailing public services.The IFS also warned that Labour’s £28bn green prosperity plan will mean even less money for day-to-day spending, but still leave state investment lower than it currently is.Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, urged both parties to “be honest” about their plans. “If they are promising tax cuts, let’s hear where the spending cuts will fall. If they are going to raise, or even protect spending, they should tell us where taxes will rise,” he said.The IFS has also questioned the wisdom of tax cuts at the cost of public spending while the population is ageing, defence spending is rising, and voters are demanding better public services.In an effort to borrow less, the government plans to cut infrastructure investment in real terms, resulting in a decrease in investment by about £20bn. This would equate to cuts to public services outside of the NHS, schools and aid – but the detail of this has not yet been set out.The government announced a national insurance tax cut back in the Autumn Earlier this week, Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, dubbed these plans a “work of fiction”, as the current projected headroom “is very small relative to the forecast errors inherent in any forecasting process, including ours”.He also criticised the chancellor’s refusal to provide detailed information about Whitehall departmental budgets to help the OBR calculate it’s forecasts back in November. Responding to the IFS report, a Conservative Party spokesman said:“This shows Labour’s £28bn a year ‘2030’ unfunded spending promise will end up meaning thousands of pounds of higher taxes for working people.“That’s because Keir Starmer can’t say how he would pay for it as he does not have a plan.”The Labour party have been approached for comment. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Keir Starmer has announced a new Labour pledge to tackle the growing epidemic of knife crime, stating that his government will “give young people real support to achieve their potential and stay on track”, but warning if they flout that chance “they’ll feel the full force of the law”.Leaning into his credentials as former director for public prosecutions, the Labour leader has set out ambitious proposals to tackle the growing scourge of youth violence and halve knife crime by the end of his first five years in office.This includes the introduction of a major new programme of prevention and sanctions, in the form of a “youth futures” programme and tougher punishments for those caught with offensive weapons.In a statement announced today, Sir Keir said he would bring an end to existing rules that mean young people carrying knives can escape any further sanctions simply by writing an apology letter.Yesterday, Labour said it would urgently crack down on the availability of machetes and zombie-style knives and introduce tougher sanctions on those found to be carrying these weapons.Labour has said it would introduce a comprehensive ban to tackle knife crime The party also said it would introduce tough criminal sanctions on tech executives who allow knife sales on their online marketplaces, such as Amazon Marketplace, eBay and Instagram.“The number of these deadly weapons on Britain’s streets is terrifying and unacceptable,” Sir Keir said.“For years, the Tories have made grand promises of action, but by failing to bring a proper ban on these killer knives and to crack down on online sales to kids, they’re letting a generation down.“The tragic cost is being felt by too many. Young people are being killed or maimed, and communities are blighted by fear.“Labour will act. There will be nothing short of a ban by my Labour government. And we won’t stop there – we’ll crack down on online sales, too. No child should be able to buy a deadly weapon as easily as they can online today.”Idris Elba staged a knife crime protest with clothes for each of 247 people killed in the UK last yearLabour’s crime blitz comes in response to a sharp increase in recorded knife crime incidents. Since 2015, knife crime has risen by 70 per cent, yet almost half (49 per cent) of knife possession cases led to no further action.Labour analysis has revealed that over 100 people every single week received a death threat involving a knife last year – an increase of nearly fourfold since the Tories came to power in 2010. It also revealed that nearly 5,600 people received a knife-enabled death threat last year – the highest number since 2010. Ministers will today lay before parliament plans to ban dangerous zombie-style knives and machetes, first announced by the prime minister last year. Under the measures, it will be illegal to possess, sell, manufacture or transport them. Sir Keir has now pledged that his government will take a much stronger approach to possession, introducing a bespoke action plan to prevent reoffending, with increased sanctions such as curfews, tagging or behavioural contracts.The plan forms part of the party’s mission for safer streets and is part of Labour’s push to become the more trusted party on law and order. On Wednesday, Sir Keir told journalists that law and order was a “priority” for him:“Crime prevention and dealing with the consequences of crime has been a central feature of a decade of my working life. So yes, that’s why I want to fight on crime, that’s why it matters to me. And yes, I’m very happy to have that fight with the Tories going into the next election.”Sir Keir’s law-and-order push is reminiscent of New Labour’s plan to be “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime”. Back in April last year, Starmer said that “nothing is more important – more fundamental – to a democracy like ours” than the rule of law.Grace O’Malley Kumar was killed as she tried to defend a friend in a knife attack in Nottingham last year Yesterday, the Labour leader also told journalists that he was worried about the safety of young people in this country, and that “they ought to be able to walk the streets feeling safe”.“I know it sounds obvious, but is basic, it’s really important. After 14 years of this government, we do not have that level of confidence in our young people feeling safe that we ought to.”The youth futures programme is likely to echo the last Labour government’s education and prevention programme, SureStart, and would require coordination of local services to identify young people most at risk of knife crime and prevent them from ever picking up a knife.Sir Keir told The Independent: “If you look at the information the police have, the health authorities have, the schools have, the referral units have… it is perfectly possible to map those that are of greatest risk.“By putting that information together, it is possible to better identify those at risk, and that helps with the intervention side and support that’s needed, but also for intelligence-led targeting, whether it’s stop and search or the consequences of carrying a knife. That co-ordination is vitally important in a significant number of cases.”The programme will cost up to £100m a year, which Labour says will fund new youth workers and mental health hubs in every community, youth workers in A&E and mentors in pupil referral units.Labour says it plans to fund the programme through ending tax breaks for private schools and full cost recovery for gun licensing.The Labour leader and shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper are leading Labour’s mission to ‘take back our streets’ Announcing the new policies in Milton Keynes on Thursday morning, Sir Keir is expected to say: “Too many young people are being drawn into squandering their life chances by getting involved in crime. A government that I lead won’t think we can press release away soaring youth crime.“No more apology letters, no more weak warnings. If you carry a knife, you’ll carry the consequences. But this is not just about sanctions once the choices have been made. I saw as chief prosecutor the power of prevention – lives are being lost to knife crime because Tory governments don’t.“Labour will turn this around. We will give young people real support to achieve their potential and stay on track, but flout that chance, and they’ll feel the full force of the law.”The Home Office and Ministry of Justice have been approached for comment. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email A fresh civil war has erupted within the Conservatives after a top ally of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson called for Rishi Sunak to be sacked and replaced.Former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke said the Tories would be “massacred” at the coming election unless the party had a new leader.But senior Tories lashed out at his “foolish” and “facile” move, while former defence secretary Ben Wallace warned it was “division and another PM [that] would lead to the certain loss of power”.As his attempted coup fizzled to a halt even his allies turned on him. Organisers made clear he would not now speak at a Popular Conservativism conference next month, even though the posters for the event feature his picture. A source told The Independent that they had “dumped” him.Supporters of Mr Sunak suspect the intervention by Sir Simon, who was levelling up secretary in Ms Truss’s cabinet and awarded a knighthood by Mr Johnson, is the latest evidence of a carefully planned right-wing plot against the PM.Sir Simon Clarke is leading calls for a new leader of the Conservative Party Tory loyalists said the orchestrated campaign to remove Mr Sunak included the following:A controversial poll last week organised by ex-Brexit minister Lord Frost which claimed the Conservatives faced a landslide election defeatLord Frost has refused to name shadowy Tory donors who paid for the survey in right-wing newspaper The Daily TelegraphSir Simon and fellow Sunak critic Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg have joined the new Popular Conservatism group, set up by Ms TrussThe moves follow a right-wing Tory revolt, in which Sir Simon played a key role, against the PM’s Rwanda billJohnson cheerleader Nadine Dorries greeted news of a possible leadership challenge to Sunak with a three-word post on Twitter/X: ‘And we’re off’Writing in the Telegraph, Sir Simon dubbed Mr Sunak’s leadership “uninspiring” and said he was “the main obstacle to our recovery”.He wrote: “The unvarnished truth is that Rishi Sunak is leading the Conservatives into an election where we will be massacred.”His piece prompted fury from MPs loyal to Mr Sunak but little support from those on the right of the party, including MPs worried the prime minister will lead them to electoral defeat. A leading member of one of the right-wing groups in the party said: “We did not know it was coming. There was no co-ordination with us.” He added he was not surprised MPs were not openly backing Sir Simon. “In politics you have to have a defined destination. But nobody knows where this would lead to. So why would you come out and say anything?” he said. Alongside Mr Clarke’s op-ed was a YouGov opinion poll, the second in as many weeks, this time suggesting a Tory leader with core Conservative policies could beat Labour. Former minister Lord Frost has commissioned a series of polls that have predicted crushing defeats for the Tories Critics were quick to point out both surveys was commissioned by the same group of shadowy Tory donors – known as the Conservative Britain Alliance – led by long-standing Sunak critic Lord Frost.Home secretary James Cleverly said it was “foolish” for Sir Simon to indulge in infighting, warning “all it would do is open the door” for Labour.Former minister Stephen Hammond also told him to shut up unless he wanted the “extinction” of the Tory party.Business minister Kevin Hollinrake admitted that “panic” in the Tory ranks was behind the move, telling Times Radio: “Of course, some people panic at a difficult time. [But] this is not the overwhelming view of the party.”There was very limited support for Sir Simon’s call. Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, who has previously called for Mr Sunak to go, predicted more letters calling for a leadership challenge would be submitted. Boris-backers the Conservative Democratic Organisation also said “urgent change” was needed. With his attempted rebellion effectively over Sir Simon took to the airwaves to cast himself as a soothsayer. He likened himself to a disliked man shouting “iceberg”, as he appeared to compare the Tories to the Titanic. Simon Clarke was a big backer of Liz Truss Amid the backlash against Sir Simon, Tory MPs also rounded on his allies. Conor Burns, a minister in Ms Truss’s short-lived government, said the former PM and her supporters should “shut up”. One senior Tory MP told The Independent that Sir Simon was “flying a kite that’s already broken” – and they did not expect many of his fellow right-wing Rwanda rebels to join him in his call.Other loyal Conservative MPs largely rallied around the PM. Senior Conservatives said Sir Simon had “lost his senses”. According to one report, one called Sir Simon a “self-indulgent tosser”.Former Tory minister Sir David Davis called his intervention “silly”. And Priti Patel, the right-wing former home secretary, said: “Engaging in facile and divisive self-indulgence only serves our opponents.”Former trade secretary Sir Liam Fox said those attempting to “destabilise the government in an election year should understand the consequences”.Tory minister Andrew Bowie used more choice language when he used a WhatsApp group to tell fellow Tory MPs to “get a f***ing grip”, according to The Times.Senior Tories also lampooned Sir Simon’s attempts. Former minister Tobias Ellwood accused the Truss loyalist of “throwing his teddies in the corner” because “his choice of prime minister is no longer in No 10”.With many MPs unhappy at the party’s ratings in the polls, there is still a risk more MPs will submit no-confidence letters in Mr Sunak to the 1922 committee of backbench MPs.One of the few who backed Sir Simon, Nadine Dorries, suggested that the foreign secretary Lord Cameron should return to Downing Street.Sir Simon with Rishi Sunak during visit to the University of LeedsBut The Independent understands former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, himself thought to be eyeing a leadership bid, does not intend to back Sir Simon. The row follows the most testing week of Mr Sunak’s premiership, in which he managed to stave off a right-wing rebellion on his flagship Rwanda legislation.Sixty conservative MPs signed rebel amendments to Mr Sunak’s legislation, dealing a serious blow to the prime minister’s authority. More