UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email The leaders of Hungary and Slovakia on Tuesday said they agree on the need to rework a European Union plan to provide financial assistance to Ukraine. It’s a potential boon to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who last month derailed EU efforts to approve the funding for the war-ravaged country.Following bilateral talks in Budapest, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico said he agrees with Orbán’s position that the EU should not finance a planned 50 billion euro ($54 billion) aid package to Kyiv from the bloc’s common budget, and echoed Orbán’s assertions that the war in Ukraine cannot be resolved through military means.“We have listened very carefully to the proposals that Prime Minister (Orbán) … has already put forward in relation to the review of the budget and aid to Ukraine, and I will repeat that we consider them to be rational and sensible,” Fico said.Fico’s comments come as the EU scrambles to salvage the funding package for Ukraine that Orbán blocked in December, a move that angered many of the bloc’s leaders who were aiming to provide Kyiv with a consistent cash flow for the next four years.Unanimity is required for decisions affecting the EU budget, and Orbán was the only one of the bloc’s 27 leaders to vote against the funding.“If we want to help Ukraine, which I think we need to do … we must do so without damaging the EU budget,” Orbán said on Tuesday.EU leaders are expected to meet again on Feb. 1 to attempt a deal on the financial package, but Orbán’s veto power remains a factor.On Tuesday, Fico said he supports Orbán’s recommendation that the funding be separated into four installments that could be reassessed, and potentially blocked, each year.“I look forward to seeing you soon on Feb. 1 in Brussels, where we will watch with full understanding your legitimate fight for what you started at the last European Council,” Fico told Orbán.A populist whose party won September elections on a pro-Russian and anti-American platform, Fico is seen as a potential ally for Orbán in the latter’s longstanding disputes with the EU.The bloc has withheld billions in funding from Budapest over concerns that Orbán’s government has cracked down on judicial independence, media freedom and the rights of the LGBTQ+ community.Some of Orbán’s critics in the EU believe that he has used his veto power over assistance to Ukraine as leverage to gain access to the frozen funds. On Tuesday, Fico cited the withheld funds as a justification for Orbán’s opposition to EU funding for Ukraine.”They cannot expect a country from which funds have been withdrawn to give money to another country. That is simply not possible. It is not fair, it is not just,” Fico said.Last week, a cross-coalition group of 120 EU lawmakers signed a petition urging that Hungary be stripped of its voting rights in the bloc’s decision making, arguing Orbán had repeatedly violated EU values by subverting democratic institutions since taking office in 2010. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak is having a tough week – as a fresh split over the controversial Rwanda bill follows crushing polls and surveys highlighting the prime minister’s popularity, or lack thereof. Focus group research carried out by JL Partners found that members of the public now regard Mr Sunak with barely concealed contempt.According to the top pollster, the Tory party leader is seen as “spineless and false” and makes people “cringe”.Meanwhile, a poll conducted by YouGov has predicted Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer would win a 120-seat majority if the general election was held tomorrow – a repeat of Tony Blair’s landslide victory over the Tories in 1997.However, Labour will need a record swing to win a majority, as the party’s path to power has been made more difficult by big boundary changes.So what do these polls really mean? Are the results surprising? And can they even be trusted? How much attention should we be paying to these surveys and predictions as the long general election campaign gets underway?If you have a question, submit it now here, or when I join you live at 11am on Wednesday 17 January for the “Ask Me Anything” event.Register to submit your question in the comments box under this article. If you’re not already a member, click “sign up” in the comments section to leave your question. For a full guide on how to comment click here.Don’t worry if you can’t see your question – they may be hidden until I join the conversation to answer them. Then join us live on this page at 11am as I tackle as many questions as I can. More

Tory rebel Robert Jenrick ‘prepared’ to vote against Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill
Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRobert Jenrick has called for people to be deported “within days” as Rishi Sunak faces a mounting rebellion over the crunch vote on his flagship Rwanda immigration plan.The former Conservative immigration minister Mr Jenrick – who quit over the “weak” Rwanda bill and has led the rebel amendments – has also said he is prepared to vote against the government at Wednesday’s showdown vote.Almost 70 right-wing Conservative MPs have now signed the rebel amendments – which are being debated and voted on today in the House of Commons – aimed at toughening the bill and curtailing asylum seekers’ rights to appeal against deportation flights to Kigali.Former prime minister Boris Johnson has also announced his support for the uprising, while Conservative deputy chairmen Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith vowed to join the rebellion.However, any attempt by Mr Sunak to placate the rebels would be opposed by more moderate Tories, who are keen to protect the legislation against breaches of international law.It comes as the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has concluded that the UK government’s new Rwanda bill is not compatible with international law following a legal assessment.Show latest update
1705415376Tory rebel ‘not satisfied’ by Sunak’s pleasSenior Tory MP Danny Kruger has said he is not satisfied by Rishi Sunak’s assurances that he is prepared to ignore European judges who try to block Rwanda deportations, reports political correspondent Adam Forrest.On the move to speed up court hearings, the co-founder of the New Conservatives told GB News: “I’m concerned that that suggests there are going to be lots of claims, which indeed I think they would be under this law.”Mr Kruger said: “I’m afraid I’m not yet satisfied by what we’ve heard from the PM.” He said: “We think the bill needs to go further, discussions are ongoing … We really hope that the government has listened to us and is prepared to concede and ideally adopt the amendments as its own.”He added: “I met with the chief whip last night and might see him again today I expect, and other colleagues are talking to ministers.”Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent16 January 2024 14:291705415076Eight DUP MPs to vote against Rwanda billEight DUP MPs will vote against the Rwanda bill at third reading on Wednesday, the unionist MP Sammy Wilson has told GB News.Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent16 January 2024 14:241705415007Watch: Tory rebel Robert Jenrick ‘prepared’ to vote against Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda billTory rebel Robert Jenrick ‘prepared’ to vote against Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda billTara Cobham16 January 2024 14:231705414816Sunak warned by Tory rebel: I’m not f***ing aroundA potential Tory rebel on Rwanda has warned Rishi Sunak he is not “f***ing around”, political editor Kate Devlin reports. Former minister Simon Clarke said: “I will vote against if the legislation isn’t amended. Simple as that”.He made the comment in response to claims by other Tories that the Rwanda rebels won’t vote down the Bill when it comes to a head on Wednesday.Mr Clarke replied on X, formerly Twitter: “Well this particular MP isn’t “f***ing around””.Kate Devlin 16 January 2024 14:201705414515Asylum debates have entered ‘unchartered waters’, says law professorA law professor has described the asylum debates as entering “unchartered waters”.Dr Helen O’Nions, Associate Professor at Nottingham Law School said: “We are in unchartered waters whereby parliamentary sovereignty is being used as a justification to trump the rule of law and evidence-based reasoning.“Yet it seems likely that the upper chamber, which has become the voice of reason in the recent asylum debates, will reject most of the proposals.“All opposition MPs have already rejected them and many one-nation conservatives are profoundly uncomfortable with a policy which exports our refugee protection and human rights obligations.”Tara Cobham16 January 2024 14:151705413615Watch: Fujitsu boss Paul Patterson ‘sorry’ for firm’s role in Post Office Horizon scandalFujitsu boss Paul Patterson ‘sorry’ for firm’s role in Post Office Horizon scandalTara Cobham16 January 2024 14:001705412715Post Office inquiry MP admits he’s not seen ITV dramaA Post Office inquiry MP admitted he has not watched the popular ITV drama that catapulted the Horizon scandal into the public domain.Jonathan Gullis, MP for Stoke-on-Trent North, revealed he had been made to watch Paw Patrol with his young children instead, much to the amusement of those at the official Post Office inquiry on Tuesday (16 January).Mr Gullis said: “I might be one of the only people in the country who has yet to watch the ITV drama.“With having two young children I am stuck between Paw Patrol and many other shows.”Lucy Leeson reports: More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch live as David Cameron takes questions in the House of Lords on Tuesday 16 January.The foreign secretary will be questioned on a range of topics, including how a lasting ceasefire arrangement between Israel and Gaza can be secured.Lord Cameron will be speaking in parliament after Rishi Sunak warned yesterday that the government remains “prepared to back our words with actions”, as missile attacks continued in the Red Sea despite last week’s air strikes against Houthi rebels.“The threats to shipping must cease. Illegally detained vessels and crews must be released. And we remain prepared to back our words with actions,” the prime minister told the House of Commons.The UK joined the US in targeting Houthi locations in Yemen last week as part of efforts to ensure international cargo vessels can travel through the vital shipping route after assaults by the Iran-backed militants.It is the latest clash during trouble sparked by the Israel-Hamas conflict. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch as Alan Bates appears before the government’s inquiry into the Post Office scandal on Tuesday, 16 January.The former subpostmaster who has led the campaign for justice in the Horizon scandal gave evidence to MPs.More than 700 subpostmasters and subpostmistresses were given criminal convictions after Fujitsu’s faulty Horizon software made it appear as though money was missing at their branches.The real-life Mr Bates, whose campaign for justice has been depicted in the ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, told Sky News ahead of the committee hearing that his focus was on pushing for swift compensation for the victims.“They should be moving heaven and earth to get it done and get it done fast,” he said.Nick Read, chief executive of the Post Office, and Paul Patterson, Europe director at Fujitsu, were also due to appear. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour will need a record swing to win a majority at the 2024 general election, as the party’s path to power has been made more difficult by big boundary changes.A major new YouGov survey has indicated that Labour is heading for a repeat of Tony Blair’s crushing 1997 victory over the Conservatives.However, new research shows that Sir Keir Starmer will have to achieve a swing of 12.7 points from the Tories to become prime minister – larger than the 10.2 point swing Tony Blair managed in his landslide.It is also even higher even than the 12-point swing achieved by Clement Attlee in the historic 1945 Labour victory, and more than double the swing at any other election since 1945.Sir Keir’s task is made harder by the impact of the boundary changes, the first since 2010, and intended to ensure that constituencies have similar numbers of voters.The new parliamentary constituencies were drawn up by the permanent and independent Boundary Commissions, and fewer than 12 per cent of the 650 Commons seats were left untouched.Rishi Sunak said earlier this month that he was planning to go to the poll in “the second half of this year” with a date in October or November considered the most likely.Rishi Sunak is under pressure to revive Tory polling fortunes The boundary changes give him a modest boost, analysis by leading professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher suggests, after they compiled notional results if the last general election in 2019 had it been fought on the new constituencies.They said the overall impact is that the Conservatives will be defending a notional majority of 94 at the next general election, compared with the 80 majority they actually achieved in 2019.“Broadly speaking this reflects a pattern where the east, south east and south west of England have gained seats reflecting the increase in electorates, and Wales has lost them, following the implementation of the new rules,” the academics say.The Tories have made a net gain of seven seats from the changes, while Labour has a net loss of two seats. The Liberal Democrats lose three seats and Plaid Cymru drops from four seats to just two.The changes mean England is allocated 543 seats, an increase of 10. Wales will have 32 seats, a reduction of eight. Scotland will have 57, down two. Northern Ireland remains unchanged with 18.Despite the cut in the number of seats in Scotland, the SNP remain on 48 seats, and there is no change in Northern Ireland, with the DUP on eight, Sinn Fein seven, SDLP on two and Alliance on one.The Conservatives won 365 seats in the snap 2019 December election, with Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour on 203, giving Boris Johnson a majority of 80, and 162 over Labour.Keir Starmer has told his troops to ignore the polls While the number of Conservative MPs is now down to 349, partly because of by-elections, with another two next month, that makes no difference to the calculations for the general election, which are based solely on the notional results.Following the 2019 election, a direct swing of seven percentage points from the Tories was needed for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament, and the boundary changes mean this rises to 8.3 percentage points.For an overall majority, Sir Keir’s 12.7-point swing requirement is up from 12 on the old boundaries, and any uniform swing from Conservatives to Labour greater than 4.2 and less than 12.7 is likely to produce a hung parliament.However, focusing only on the direct swing between Conservatives and Labour makes the assumption there will be no change in the share votes cast for the other parties, which is highly unlikely to be true.For instance, a 10-point swing from the SNP to Labour would give Sir Keir 15 gains under the new boundaries, easing his path to Downing Street, according to professors Rallings and Thrasher.The top election experts compiled their notional results on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the PA news agency.Despite the warnings about the scale of the turnaround needed by Labour, a YouGov poll of 14,000 voters found Sir Keir’s party is on course to achieve a stunning 120-majority.It found that the Tories were headed for as few as 169 seats, while Labour would sweep into power with 385.The survey, commissioned by Tory donors working with arch-Brexiteer David Frost, also predicts that chancellor Jeremy Hunt could be one of 11 cabinet ministers to lose their seats, in what would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906.The Conservatives’ election chief Isaac Levido fired backed at Lord Frost at a meeting of Tory backbenchers’ 1922 committee last night.The strategist said those who organised the timing of the poll – ahead of the showdown Rwanda vote – are “intent on undermining this government” and “more interested in what happens after the election than fighting it”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailCan the Tories cling to power in 2024? Is Sir Keir Starmer the UK’s next Prime Minister? What will be the defining issues of the next election? And when will we actually take to the polls this year?So many questions swirl around the upcoming 2024 general election – and we want to hear your predictions.On Monday Rishi Sunak dismissed the significance of a damning opinion poll predicting the Tories are on track for a 1997-style wipeout.The research, which was commissioned by Tory donors working with arch-Brexiteer David Frost, suggests the Conservatives are facing a humiliating defeat with several senior MPs set to lose their seats.The YouGov survey of 14,000 people suggests the Tories could retain as few as 169 seats, while Labour would sweep into power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a massive 120-seat majority.It came as Sir Keir warns Labour MPs that the Tory prime minister could still call a surprise general election in the spring.The Labour leader told his troops to get ready to campaign within months, despite Mr Sunak saying he wanted to go to the polls later in the year.Speaking to his MPs at the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) on Monday night, Sir Keir also warned of a potentially dirty election campaign – having vowed to fight “fight with fire”.Whether it happens in May or November, we are just months away from taking to polling stations up and down the country. Share your predictions in the comments and we’ll highlight the best takes as they come in.All you have to do is sign up and register your details – then you can then take part in the discussion. You can also sign up by clicking ‘log in’ on the top right-hand corner of the screen.Make sure you adhere to our community guidelines, which can be found here. For a full guide on how to comment click here.Join the conversation with other Independent readers below. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe new Rwanda deal proposed by Rishi Sunak’s government is still “not compatible” with international refugee law, the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) said.The UNHCR has published its legal assessment of the bill designed to allow Britain to send asylum seekers who arrive illegally in the UK to Rwanda.The UNHCR said the modified Rwanda scheme “does not meet the required standards relating to the legality and appropriateness of the transfer of asylum seekers and is not compatible with international refugee law”.In November last year, the UK Supreme Court blocked the government’s Rwanda policy, declaring it unlawful.After the ruling, the government introduced the Safety of Rwanda Bill, asserting that, according to UK law, Rwanda was considered a safe country. Additionally, the bill grants ministers the authority to disregard emergency orders from the European Court of Human Rights that would suspend a flight to Rwanda during the ongoing legal proceedings of an individual case.Mr Sunak is optimistic that the upcoming legislation, once enacted, will address legal concerns and enable him to uphold his commitment to preventing individuals from arriving via small boats across the Channel.In its published analysis on Monday evening, the UNHCR concluded: “UNHCR has reviewed the updated UK-Rwanda scheme in light of the principles and standards set out in its 2022 analysis and summarised in Part I above.”The UNHCR said that the shortcomings in the Rwandan asylum system, as highlighted by the Supreme Court, have not been rectified.“It maintains its position that the arrangement, as now articulated in the UK-Rwanda Partnership Treaty and accompanying legislative scheme23 does not meet the required standards relating to the legality and appropriateness of the transfer of asylum seekers and is not compatible with international refugee law.”It comes as Mr Sunak faces a parliamentary showdown this week with right-wing members of his party, who are poised to support rebel amendments to the bill as his flagship legislation.Parliament will vote on a series of proposed amendments on Tuesday and Wednesday aimed at closing off potential loopholes that could block asylum seekers from being removed to Rwanda.Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith said they would defy the government by joining more than 60 Tory MPs who are seeking to disapply international law from the Bill and curtail asylum seekers’ rights to appeal against flights to Kigali. More