UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has not ruled out further military action in Yemen after Houthi rebels warned of reprisals for overnight airstrikes and the leader of Turkey accused the UK and the US of trying to create a “sea of blood”.As international tensions escalated as a result of the bombing, the prime minister said Britain had sent a “strong signal” that the militants’ attacks in the Red Sea cannot be carried out with “impunity”.Downing Street rejected the idea the UK was at war with the Iran-backed group and said the UK’s actions, targetting military facilities used by rebels, had been proportionate and carried out in self-defence.But pressed on what happens if the air strikes fail to deter attacks, Mr Sunak said ministers would monitor the situation, adding: “It’s clear that this type of behaviour can’t be met without a response. We need to send a strong signal that this breach of international law is wrong. People can’t act like this with impunity and that’s why together with allies we’ve decided to take this action.”President Biden has also said he will not hesitate to take further action if necessary. Houthi rebels said the strikes killed at least five people and wounded six, and would “not go unanswered and unpunished”. As concerns over tensions in the Middle East grew, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the UK and the US are trying to turn the Red Sea into a “sea of blood”. Huge explosions were seen in Yemeni cities, including Sanaa and Hodeidah, in the early hours of Friday. The US military said 60 strikes were launched at 16 sites linked to the Houthis’ military operations.The Ministry of Defence said four Royal Air Force jets struck two Houthi facilities involved in their targeting of HMS Diamond and US Navy vessels on Tuesday.One was a site at Bani and the other the Abbs airfield, used to launch drones and cruise missiles.The Houthis on Friday said the US-led operation resulted in at least five deaths and six injuries.A military spokesperson for the group warned the strikes will not go unpunished and will not deter the militia from supporting Hamas by targeting ships associated with Israel.Sophia Gaston, head of foreign policy at the think tank Policy Exchange, said: “We are moving into a much riskier terrain because the United States and the United Kingdom certainly do not want to be in a situation where we are required to engage beyond a limited targeted strike capacity and certainly not one that may invite the participation of other regional powers.” She added that the existence of so many proxies for different states, such as the Houthis and Hezbollah for Iran, “necessarily makes this a kind of tinderbox”.”And I think there are a lot of these players who believe that the stakes at the moment are becoming existential. So I think that always is a recipe for a higher risk of conflict.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailInfected blood victims have welcomed the idea of a Post Office scandal-style drama about their own experience of injustice, a lawyer said.Des Collins, senior partner of Collins Solicitors, which represents 1,500 victims and their families, said most of his clients would welcome a TV drama as it would attract more attention than news coverage.He said since ITV programme Mr Bates Vs The Post Office began, families had come forward asking why they had not had the same coverage.“They phone up and say ‘have you seen it, why aren’t we getting this coverage’ and they do feel marginalised,” Mr Collins said.“But it is not a question of – we’re entitled to it, they’re not – it’s the question of everyone who is wronged in these circumstances as a result of whatever went wrong.Infected blood victims would welcome a Post Office scandal-style TV drama about their experience“Whether it’s the Post Office scandal or the contaminated blood crisis, it requires the Government to react properly, objectively and fully,” he added.In the 1970s and 1980s, thousands died in what is widely recognised as the worst treatment disaster in the history of the NHS after being given blood products contaminated with HIV and Hepatitis C.It comes as Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt said it would not take an ITV drama for compensation to victims of the scandal to be resolved.Ms Mordaunt was speaking in the Commons as she faced calls to speed up justice for the victims of other scandals after recent Government announcements on compensating wrongly convicted subpostmasters following the airing of the ITV drama on the issue.While the Commons Leader defended the Government’s actions in trying to resolve “some very difficult and long-running issues”, she said she would speak to the Cabinet Office to ensure lessons are learned “particularly” from the last few weeks.Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt said it would not take an ITV drama for compensation to victims of the scandal to be resolvedBut Mr Collins said his clients would like to see “less words and more action”. He said: “Penny Mordaunt says, well this is very serious, and it is, and that we can rely on the Government to do the right thing, they regard it as important but so far that has not been the evidence which has presented itself to the victims.“Similarly, with the Post Office victims, there was a lot of talk over the last two or three years insofar as the postmasters were concerned that it was being looked at very seriously and they were going to do the right thing, but they didn’t until someone basically, took a stick to them, the world’s press took a stick to them.“It’s good that that happened, and it wasn’t before time, but clearly my clients are concerned that that will never happen to them and they are concerned that the response of the Government to the compensation framework, which should have been set up six months ago, at least six months ago, is now pushed forward at the earliest opportunity.“All very well for Penny to say something in the House this afternoon but I think my clients would like to see less words and more action.”Mr Collins added that the Infected Blood Inquiry does not seem to have “cut through the impasse” but his clients feel that the ITV drama has.He said: “They think that would be something which would assist them or their cause and I can’t disagree with them.”Mr Collins said he believes if the Infected Blood Inquiry and the interim report had been given the same coverage as the Post Office scandal, then the Government “would have reacted”.He said the families have the “utmost sympathy” for the victims of the Post Office scandal but that the Government will “only react in a certain way at a certain time” and the reaction to the Infected Blood Inquiry has been “woefully inadequate”.A Government spokesperson said: “This was an appalling tragedy, and our thoughts remain with all those affected.“We are clear that justice needs to be delivered for the victims and have already accepted the moral case for compensation.“The report covers a set of extremely complex issues – and the Government intends to respond in full to Sir Brian’s (Langstaff) recommendations for wider compensation following the publication of the Inquiry’s final report in March 2024.” More

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insightBrexit is set to leave Britain’s economy £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, a damning new report by top economists has found.The scathing study by Cambridge Econometrics found that the decision to leave the EU had already cost the UK £140bn.The shock findings put the scale of the damage far higher than previous warnings by independent economists that Brexit caused a £33bn loss to the economy.The new report warned that Britain will continue to have lower investment, weaker trade and fewer jobs in the decade ahead as a consequence of being outside the bloc.The Cambridge study – commissioned by London mayor Sadiq Khan – said the country will have three million fewer jobs by 2035 than if it had stayed inside the EU.And the economists estimated that Brexit will be responsible for a mammoth 10 per cent hit to Britain’s gross value added (GVA) – the overall value of goods and services – by the same date.Using data Office for Budget of Responsibility data and forecasts based on the organisation’s data, the report predicts that the UK’s GVA will hit £2,771bn by 2035.But this is £311bn lower than the £3,082bn GVA figure the nation would have reached without deciding to leave the EU.Mayor of London Sadiq Khan said report showed ‘Brexit isn’t working’ The economists worked to isolate the “Brexit effect” from other factors such as Covid and the Ukraine war in its modelling.They found Britain will have 32 per cent lower investment, 16 per cent lower imports and 5 per cent lower exports by the middle of the next decade than without Brexit.The study also found that Brexit would further widen the productivity gap between the capital and the rest of the country.Shyamoli Patel, principal economist at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit hadn’t taken place.“Looking ahead, we project that Brexit will continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies in the medium term.”A majority of voters believe Brexit has damaged the economy The Labour mayor of London said the findings showed it was “now obvious that Brexit isn’t working”.In speech at Mansion House on Thursday evening, he said: “The cost of Brexit crisis can only be solved if we take a mature approach and if we are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours.”Mr Khan – who has called for a debate on re-joining the EU single market – added: “I agree with the shadow foreign secretary [David Lammy], who has said we urgently need to build a closer relationship with the EU.”However, Labour has insisted it will keep Britain out of the single market and customs union if it wins power at the 2024 general election.Leader Sir Keir Starmer has offered a vague promise to seek a new veterinary agreement to ease current trade friction, and examine Boris Johnson’s trade deal when it comes up for review in 2025.The most recent Opinium poll showed that more than 60 per cent of voters feel Brexit had been bad for prices in the shops, and 53 per cent said it had hampered the UK’s ability to control immigration. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailScotland’s first minister, Humza Yousaf, is expected to urge Scotland to vote for the Scottish National Party in order to “kick the Tories out”, as his party prepares to launch its 2024 general election campaign.In a speech on Friday, Mr Yousaf will say that Rishi Sunak is “finished” and will implore voters across Scotland to “take the opportunity to kick them out of Scotland completely” as “the damage they have caused to Scotland is unforgiveable”.He will call upon the Scottish electorate to vote for the SNP, explaining that his party is “best placed” to remove the Conservatives as the SNP is currently second in every Tory-held seat across Scotland.Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has said that voting Labour offers the best chance of a Conservative wipeout Mr Yousaf’s speech comes just days after a rival speech from the leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sarwar, who opted for a similar message and urged supporters of Scottish independence to defect from the SNP and lend their vote to Labour in order to vote the Conservatives out, exhorting them to “unite to change the country”.The last time Scotland saw a Conservative wipeout was during the 1997 election, when all of the Scottish Conservative MPs lost their seats to Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.In 2005, the Conservatives managed to claw back one Scottish constituency when David Mundell won the seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale and was made shadow secretary of state for Scotland by the then Conservative leader, David Cameron.So low was the number of Scottish Conservatives in the early 2000s that in 2010, Mr Mundell became the butt of the infamous joke that there are “more pandas in Scotland than Scottish MPs” after Edinburgh Zoo gained two giant pandas.Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross will leave Westminster at the next election Now, some are predicting that the Conservatives could suffer a similar defeat in Scotland, following their poor performance in opinion polls and the resignation of both the leader of the Scottish Tories, Douglas Ross, and the current Scottish secretary Alister Jack, both of whom are set to stand down at the end of the current parliament.Mr Sunak has, however, strongly rebuffed the suggestion that his party will see enormous losses in Scotland, and told journalists in December that he was “very confident” about his party’s prospects north of the Scottish border.Meanwhile, the Labour Party may be quietly confident about its chances in Scotland, following the Labour gain of an SNP seat at the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election in October last year.Labour saw a seismic 20 per cent swing in its vote share, which led polling guru Michael Thrasher to suggest that if the result were replicated in a 2024 general election, it could equate to a 42-seat gain by Labour in Scotland.Scotland is expected to be a key battleground at the next election, with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer having remarked that “the route to a Labour election win at the next general election runs through Scotland”. More