UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has been hit by a fresh headache on his flagship Rwanda bill, as senior Conservative on the left said they would join right-wing rebels in pushing the PM for changes ahead of an expected second vote in January.The embattled PM believed he could count on the support of Tory MPs in the moderate “One Nation” wing, as he fights to appease their rivals on the right who are demanding tougher deportation legislation.But, as No 10 prepares for crunch talks with the right-wingers over the Christmas break, senior Tory moderates told The Independent they are considering how to amend the bill in a bid to soften its impact.Tobias Ellwood said he wanted to explore ways to stop the bill “clashing with international law”. Fellow moderate Sir Robert Buckland confirmed that he was also considering how it might be “tweaked” to make it comply with global treaties.It comes as home secretary James Cleverly insisted that Tory rebels would not “kill the bill” in the new year – saying that the party was still “united” after the government survived a first hurdle vote in the Commons.Despite the PM’s relief in winning through on Tuesday night, 29 mostly right-wing Tory rebels defied the whips by abstaining. They have warned that they reserved the right to “kill the bill” when it returns next year.The One Nation caucus – which boasts around 100 MPs – agreed to back the bill – but its leading figures have stressed they will resist any amendments from the Tory right that risk the UK breaching the rule of law.James Cleverly rejected the idea rebel Tories could ‘kill the bill’ in January Damian Green, the One Nation wing’s chairman, said he hoped the “third reading would go through reasonably easily” so long as Mr Sunak and his team “stick to that [narrow] landing strip”.However, Mr Ellwood said he wanted to explore “improving” the bill. The senior moderate – who abstained on Tuesday night – said he was concerned the plan “could see us clashing with international law”.Mr Ellwood said he was uncomfortable with the push to stop the courts from having a say in deciding if Rwanda is safe, and giving ministers the power to overrule the Strasbourg court which oversees the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR).“We all have to look in the mirror and decide what we believe in,” the former foreign affairs committee chief told The Independent. “We will have to look at how we might finesse those aspects [in the bill], so it fits in with international law.”Sir Robert – the former justice secretary who is keen to avoid any breach of international law – suggested on LBC Radio that he would consider pushing to soften the bill.“If anything, it probably should be tweaked in the other direction, and if it was, I would think there are numbers within the House of Commons… and certainly the House of Lords, to amend the bill to make it legally more workable.”Warning Mr Sunak of the “battle” to come, Sir Robert suggested he could not back the bill if it was made more draconian. “I think there will be a problem from people like me, frankly,” he said. The ex-cabinet minister later confirmed he was considering amendments.Former justice secretary Robert Buckland said there would be support for moderate ‘tweaks’ to the bill On the other side, hardliner former home secretary Suella Braverman and her key ally ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who quit last week, were among the high-profile Tories to abstain, despite being issued a three-line whip.The 40 or so leading right-wing MPs who attended meetings of the “five families” with European Research Group (ERG) chairman Mark Francois on Tuesday were said to be evenly split between abstaining or voting against.A Tory rebel source said: “This bill has been allowed to live another day. But without amendments it will be killed next month. It is now up to the government to decide what it wants to do.”Mr Jenrick told reporters on Wednesday that he still “hopes” that he can persuade Mr Sunak to make significant changes to the Rwanda bill.“The public expect us to secure our borders so I will always fight for that and I am pleased that it sounds as if there is a way forward where we can make the bill better,” said the hardliner, among those who abstained.Some Tory right-wingers claim that the 29 abstentions underestimate the number of potential rebels, unhappy with the bill, who could vote it down at the showdown third reading stage.Others think the Tory right is “all talk”, and that some who abstained will back the bill when it comes to the crunch. “This was the moment of maximum leverage for opponents of the bill and the government rightly told them to f*** off,” another senior Tory MP who backed the bill told the FT.Sunak and his team are facing crucial talks over the Christmas break Pressed on the push from the Tory right on the Rwanda bill, Mr Sunak’s official spokesman said: “We will have discussions with colleagues, we will listen to any suggestions on amendments.”The PM’s spokesperson did not deny that Mr Sunak could hold meetings with Tory rebels over the Christmas break, saying only that “discussions will continue”. There was no clarity on the timetable for the bill in January – but No 10 insisted the bill remained “urgent”.Put to him that the right-wingers would vote the bill down next year, Mr Cleverly told Sky News earlier: “I don’t agree.”Asked about the objections of Mr Francois and other rebels, he said: “I will talk to Mark and I’ll talk to others … to understand their thinking on this and try to harvest their ideas to make things better.”Sir Keir Starmer dubbed Mr Sunak a festive “donkey” as he used PMQs to mock Christmas party plans for the divided Tories. “They’ve obviously found the donkey for their nativity – the search for three wise men may take longer.”The Labour leader also went on to ridicule the “five families” plotting on the Tory backbenches, saying Mr Sunak’s MPs are “swirling around… pretending to be members of the mafia”.Conservative party is ‘united’ on making Rwanda bill work, home secretary insistsSir Keir challenged Tory MPs who have anonymously criticised Mr Sunak in the press to identify themselves. “Who was it who said he’s a really bad politician? Hands up.”Meanwhile, justice secretary Alex Chalk said any suggestions the Sunak government is behaving like a “dictatorship” with the bill are “a long way wide of the mark”.SNP MP Joanna Cherry KC put to him that parliament would be “usurping part of the judicial function” during his appearance at the human rights committee. Mr Chalk replied: “I think suggestions of a dictatorship are a long way wide of the mark.”Mr Ellwood warned Tory colleagues not to overstate the importance of the bill. “The Rwanda policy has been ramped up, where’s it become this totemic statement of success of migration. That’s unfortunate. We shouldn’t look sight of all the good things the prime minister has done in tackling [illegal] migration.”Right-wing Tory MP Philip Davies warned that the party could be “sleepwalking” into a Starmer government, if the infighting on Rwanda continues. He urged the Tory factions to get behind Mr Sunak and “turn our guns [on Labour] rather than on ourselves”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe first minister of Wales Mark Drakeford has announced he is standing down as the country’s Labour leader – triggering a surprise winter contest to find his successor.The 69-year-old Labour politician, who has been Welsh leader since December 2018, said he hoped his replacement could be in place before Easter 2024.At a news conference in Cardiff, Mr Drakeford said he would remain as first minister until then “in the full sense of that job”.Mr Drakeford said he would continue to work “tirelessly” for a Labour government to “start repairing the huge damage which has been inflicted by the Tories over the last 13 years”.Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer praised Mr Drakeford as a “true titan” of Welsh politics and his party, paying tribute to “an outstanding career”.Mr Drakeford has suffered a major slump in poll ratings, and has come under fire for recent policies including the widespread use of 20mph limits on Welsh roads.A YouGov poll of Welsh voters for ITV and Cardiff University earlier this month found his popularity is at an 18-month low – with 56 per cent believing he was doing a bad job.Mark Drakeford will remain in place until Easter 2024 Mr Drakeford was first elected to the Senedd, the Welsh Assembly, back in 2011 as the member for Cardiff West. He served in various ministerial roles from 2013 under the leadership of Carwyn Jones, before succeeding him as first minister in 2018.In a resignation statement posted to X, formerly Twitter, Mr Drakeford said he had vowed to stand down during the current term. “That time has now come.”He added: “It has been a great privilege to serve as leader of this party. Together, we have achieved a huge amount over the last five years in some of the toughest times we have known.”“Despite all the chaos in Westminster, the ongoing impact of Brexit, climate change and the pandemic, by working together, we have delivered record results for Welsh Labour in the local government and Senedd elections.Mr Drakeford added: “I will work tirelessly to secure that Labour victory and to continue delivering on the promises we made to people all across Wales in 2021 to deliver a stronger, fairer and greener Wales.”Sir Keir said the resigning Welsh leader had “set a clear standard for public service in UK politics – always putting others before himself”.The Labour said Mr Drakeford had delivered for Wales with “steely determination and quiet authority” against a backdrop of austerity, instability in Westminster and the Covid pandemic.“Above all, Mark is a kind and decent man, who lives his Labour values,” said Mr Starmer. “A proud Welshman, Wales too can be proud of Mark, for his fight for working people.He added: “He’s a true titan of Welsh and Labour politics. It has been a pleasure to work alongside him and we all wish him the very best for his retirement.”Rishi Sunak said he wished Mr Drakeford “all the best as he moves on from his many years of public service”, adding that the Tory government would “continue to work closely” with the administration in Wales.Tory chairman Richard Holden thanked Mr Drakeford “for his service” – but also attacked his leadership and said Labour’s “25 years of failure running Wales cannot be ignored”.He added: “With falling schools standards, blanket 20mph speed limits, and blocking meal deals in supermarkets, the Labour government in Wales have been focused on short-term soundbites.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Government expects to have “robust mechanisms” in place to stop the spread of AI-powered disinformation before the next general election, the Technology Secretary has said.Michelle Donelan said the Government was working with social media companies on tools to combat AI-generated content which could be used as part of disinformation campaigns.Giving evidence to MPs on the Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, Ms Donelan said the Government was “concerned” about the potential impact of AI being used to create deepfakes and other kinds of disinformation during an election campaign and was taking the issue “extremely seriously”.The UK is due to hold its next general election no later than January 2025.Nobody has a silver bullet answer on this topic, but this is something that the Government is taking extremely seriouslyMichelle Donelan – Technology SecretaryThe Secretary of State said the rise of generative AI – which can be used to create written, audio and video content – had “made it easier” for people to create “more sophisticated” misleading content and “amplifies an existing risk” around online disinformation.Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have all been the subject of manipulated images, video or audio in recent months that have been circulated online.Fact-checking charity Full Fact has warned that AI-generated content is reducing the public’s trust in everything they see online, and has called on the Government to put more funding into media literacy to help people better spot fake content.In response to the issue, Ms Donelan told MPs the UK was working with allies on its approach to the issue and was also “working very closely with leading tech companies” on potential solutions to combat it, including watermarking content that is AI-generated to identify it and stop it spreading further, as well as detection software capable of spotting content which has been AI-generated.The Technology Secretary said the work was being lead by Security Minister Tom Tugendhat and the Defending Democracy Taskforce, but that her department had “a seat at the table” for discussions on the issue.“What I can say is that we are working with social media companies to make sure that something would be in place relatively soon,” Ms Donelan told MPs.“I’m fully aware of the timeframes that we’re working to in this country, and the potential risks here as well.“Nobody has a silver bullet answer on this topic, but this is something that the Government is taking extremely seriously.“We’ve got work streams that are working apace and we’re working with our international counterparts as well, and we do have the Electoral Commission as well.“We are working to be able to deliver something with social media companies that will be effective in this space.“Do I expect that by the next general election we will have robust mechanisms in place that will be able to tackle these topics? Absolutely, yes.”In its annual review, published last month, the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre said that artificial intelligence posed a threat to elections, warning that the large language models (LLMs) used in generative AI software would almost certainly be used to generate fake content as part of disinformation campaigns to disrupt the democratic process. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Conservative cabinet minister took a swipe at David Cameron over his past support for closer ties with China in the latest sign of Tory infighting.Security minister Tom Tugendhat appeared to mock the changed stance by the foreign secretary – who once hailed a “golden era” of UK relations with Beijing while he was PM.Mr Tugendhat – one of the Tory party’s leading “hawks” on the Chinese government – re-posted a Foreign Office tweet showing Lord Cameron with Sebastien Lai.Mr Lai’s father is the leading Hong Kong dissent Jimmy Lai, a politician who has been detained by the Chinese authorities after the crackdown on the territory’s autonomy.Mr Tugendhat said on X, formerly known as Twitter: “I guess the golden era is over.”As Tory prime minister, Mr Cameron hailed a “golden era” of UK-China ties, and even took Chinese premier Xi Jinping for a pint at his local pub during a state visit.Lord Cameron was given a speedy peerage by Rishi Sunak as the PM brought the former leader back into government during a shock reshuffle last month.The foreign secretary now sits at the cabinet table with Mr Tugendhat, with who is supposed to work closely on security issues.David Cameron has defended his foreign policy as PM On the meeting with Mr Lai, the Foreign Office said Lord Cameron had met him “to listen to his concerns for his father, Jimmy Lai, detained in Hong Kong”.The department added: “The UK opposes the National Security Law and will continue to stand by Jimmy Lai and the people of HK [Hong Kong].”Earlier this month Lord Cameron said Britain would continue its engagement with China after speaking to his counterpart in Beijing for the first time in his new job.The foreign secretary said he and Wang Yi had spoken about their aim for “constructive” UK-Sino relations.Relations between the West and China have deteriorated dramatically in the years since Mr Cameron left No 10 in 2016.Lord Cameron has also acknowledged that the Asian power had become “much more aggressive, much more assertive” since he left No 10, while defending the foreign policy of his period in office.He insisted that engaging with China – a “fifth of humanity” – today was necessary to solve challenges such as climate change.Mr Sunak has insisted Lord Cameron’s shock political comeback will not mean the return of his golden era approach to Beijing. The PM described the pursuit of closer economic ties over the previous decade as “naive”.Some Tory MPs have pushed Mr Sunak to go further and brand China a “threat”, amid concerns about recent attempts to reduce tensions. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s popularity has hit a record low, and he is now as unpopular as Boris Johnson before he was forced out of Downing Street.As the prime minister battles a civil war on the Tory back benches, his favourability with the public has continued to plunge.In a damning poll conducted ahead of Tuesday’s crunch vote on Mr Sunak’s Rwanda bill, just 21 per cent of people said they have a positive view of the PM.That compared with 70 per cent of people who said they view him negatively, leaving his approval rating at -49, a 10-point drop from the end of November. It is also 30 points below Mr Sunak’s rating when he took over as PM.It is the lowest approval rating YouGov has recorded for the prime minister since he took over from Liz Truss last October.The embattled PM’s rating is lower than Mr Johnson’s rating before he was forced to quit over a series of scandals including Partygate. And it is tumbling toward the -70 approval rating hit by Liz Truss during her disastrous 49-day stint in Downing Street.Mr Sunak was relatively popular when he took over, having won praise for his handling of the economy through the pandemic. And Tories had hoped that he would restore the party’s reputation after the Johnson and Truss administrations.But the dip in Mr Sunak’s popularity also means he is now as unpopular as the Conservative Party as a whole.YouGov also found Mr Sunak is viewed negatively by a majority of 2019 Tory voters, who the party needs to hold onto to win a general election expected next year.Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s approval rating has also dipped in recent weeks, with a score of -22.The damning finding for Mr Sunak comes as he grapples with a major Tory rebellion over his Rwanda deportation plan.The PM emerged wounded from a crunch vote over a bill to deem Rwanda a safe country to deport asylum seekers in a bid to revive the policy after it was struck down by the Supreme Court. Parliament backed his emergency legislation by 313 votes to 269But he faces another battle over the bill within weeks, with Tory rebels warning they could vote against the bill without significant changes.The polling also come after it was confirmed Mr Sunak is failing on four of his five key pledges to the country.In January, he promised to halve inflation, grow the economy, cut national debt, cut waiting lists and stop small boat crossings in the channel.Inflation fell from more than 10 per cent at the time of the announcement, to 4.6 per cent last month, in a boost for the PM.But since the pledge, waiting lists have hit a record high, national debt has risen and migrants have continued crossing the channel in small boats.And figures from the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday morning showed the economy shrinking faster than expected, meaning the PM is also failing to grow the economy.Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said that the data shows that Mr Sunak’s government had “failed” to grow the economy as promised. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch as Rishi Sunak faces questions from Sir Keir Starmer during Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday 13 December, after winning a crunch vote on the Safety of Rwanda Bill last night.The prime minister spent the day in talks with potential rebels to avoid a defeat on his flagship “stop the boats” pledge.His effort to bring people on side worked, with MPs approving the bill at second reading by 313 votes to 269, giving the government a winning majority of 44.But right-wing Tory factions said they reserved the right to vote against the draft law when it returns to the House of Commons next year if its contents are not strengthened to ensure asylum seekers can be deported to Rwanda before the next election.Dozens abstained but no Tory MP voted against the bill, with former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith and former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg among those to back it. More