US Politics

Joe Biden has played down congressional jitters over the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal and has revealed he assured Xi Jinping that the countries involved are not aiming to “surround China”.The US president welcomed the Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, to the White House and insisted he was “confident that we’re going to be able to get the money for Aukus because it’s overwhelmingly in our interest”.“So the question is not if, but when,” Biden said during a joint press conference with Albanese in the rose garden on Wednesday US time (Thursday Australian time).Biden also relayed a conversation he previously had with China’s president about the Aukus security partnership, in which Australia, the US and the UK have pledged to work together on advanced defence capabilities.“When I was asked when we put together the deal, I was asked by Xi Jinping, were we just trying to surround China?,” Biden said“I said, no, we’re not surrounding China. We’re just making sure that the sea lanes remain open, it doesn’t unilaterally to be able to change the rules of the road in terms of what constitutes international airspace and water, space, etc.”Biden and Albanese spoke to reporters after wide-ranging talks at the White House. They pledged to cooperate in numerous fields, including space, with a deal paving the way for launches of US commercial space vehicles from Australia.There was a heavy emphasis on working with Pacific countries amid intensifying competition for influence in the region.The leaders announced plans for the US and Australia to “co‑finance critical maritime infrastructure projects in Kiribati, including the rehabilitation of Kanton Wharf and Charlie Wharf in Tarawa”. They will also assist Pacific countries with banking services and undersea cables.The climate crisis formed a significant part of the talks, with plans to collaborate on battery supply chains “to explore the deepening of both countries’ manufacturing capability and work on battery technology research and development”.In their joint statement, Biden and Albanese acknowledged that “achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement will require rapid deployment of clean energy and decarbonisation technologies, and increased electrification in our countries this decade, alongside the phasedown of unabated coal power”.It was the ninth time Albanese has met with Biden since the May 2022 election, although the earlier meetings mostly occurred on the sidelines of international events.Biden and the first lady, Jill Biden, welcomed Albanese and his partner, Jodie Haydon, to the White House for a private dinner on Tuesday evening but the main diplomatic talks were held on Wednesday.The day began with a welcome on the south lawn of the White House before the two leaders held a formal meeting in the Oval Office.Biden began that meeting by apologising “again for not being able to make my visit to Australia” in May when the Quad summit in Sydney was called off because of debt ceiling negotiations in the US.“Things were a little bit in disarray here and required to be home,” Biden told Albanese.Albanese will be feted at a state dinner later on Wednesday US time (late Thursday morning AEDT).Biden described ties with Australia as “strong” and getting “stronger”, while Albanese said the alliance was based on “a faith in freedom and democracy, a belief in opportunity, a determination to build a prosperous and more peaceful world”.However, seven months after Albanese joined Biden and the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, in San Diego to announce the Aukus plans, there remains uncertainty over congressional approvals needed for them to succeed.Aukus will require reforms to the US export control system. Congress will also need to authorise the sale of at least three Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s but some Republicans have raised concerns that will come at the cost of the US’s own needs. Australian-built nuclear-powered submarines are due to enter into service from the 2040s.Standing alongside Albanese on Wednesday, Biden urged Congress to “pass our Aukus legislation this year”.Albanese played down concerns about the deal, saying he regarded the US “as a very reliable partner”.“And I regard the relationship that I have with the president as second to none of the relationships that I have around the world, or indeed domestically, for that matter,” Albanese said.The prime minister said he was “very confident in the discussions that I’ve had with Democrats and Republicans that there is very broad support for the Aukus arrangements”.Albanese said he looked forward to “a constructive dialogue” when he visits China next month, describing such talks as important to build understanding and reduce tensions.Biden and Albanese also discussed the Israel-Hamas conflict. In their joint statement, they said Hamas attacks on Israel “can have no justification, no legitimacy, and must be universally condemned”.While pledging to “support Israel as it defends itself and its people against such atrocities”, the two leaders also called on “all parties to act consistent with the principles of international law and to protect civilians as an utmost priority”.“We are concerned at the humanitarian situation in Gaza and call on all actors to ensure the provision of humanitarian supplies to populations in need,” Biden and Albanese said.“Our two countries support equal measures of dignity, freedom, and self-determination for Israelis and Palestinians alike and we mourn every civilian life lost in this conflict. We continue to support Palestinian aspirations for a state of their own and consider a two-state solution as the best avenue towards a lasting peace.”Albanese announced that Australia would provide an additional $15m in humanitarian assistance for civilians in Gaza. More

Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.The US has ordered the immediate halt of exports to China of hi-tech computer chips used for artificial intelligence, chipmaker Nvidia has said.Nvidia said the US had brought forward a ban which had given the company 30 days from 17 October to stop shipments. Instead of a grace period, the ban is “effective immediately”, the company said in a statement to US regulators.The company did not say why the ban had been brought forward so abruptly, but it comes amid a deep rivalry between the US and China over who will dominate the AI boom.Nvidia said that shipments of its A100, A800, H100, H800, and L40S chips would be affected. Those chips, which retail at several thousand dollars apiece, are specifically designed for use in datacentres to train AI and large language models.Demand for AI chips has soared as excitement has grown about the capabilities of generative AI, which can produce new text, images and video based on the inputs of huge volumes of data.Nvidia said it “does not anticipate that the accelerated timing of the licensing requirements will have a near-term meaningful impact on its financial results”.Lloyds profits up but competition squeezes marginsIn the UK, Lloyds Banking Group has reported a rise in profits even as it said competition was hitting its margins as mortgage rates fall back.Britain’s biggest bank said it made £1.9bn in profits from July to September, an increase compared to the £576m for the same period last year. The comparison has an important caveat, however: the bank has restated its financials to conform to new accounting rules.Net interest margin – the measure of the difference between the cost of borrowing and what it charges customers when it lends – was 3.08% in the third quarter, down 0.06 percentage points in the quarter “given the expected mortgage and deposit pricing headwinds”, it said.The bank did set aside £800m to deal with rising defaults from borrowers, but said that it was still seeing “broadly stable credit trends and resilient asset quality”.The agendaFilters BETAAn EY-linked auditor to the Adani Group is under scrutiny from India’s accounting regulator, Bloomberg News has reported.The National Financial Reporting Authority, or NFRA, has started an inquiry into, S.R. Batliboi, a member firm of EY in India, Bloomberg said, citing unnamed sources.S.R. Batliboi is the auditor for five Adani companies which account for about half Adani’s revenues.Bloomberg reported that representatives for NFRA and the Adani Group didn’t respond to an emailed request for comments. A representative for EY and S.R. Batliboi declined to comment to Bloomberg.China’s economic slowdown is causing worries at home, as well as in Germany and other big trade partners.A series of Chinese government actions have signalled their concern about slowing growth, which could cause problems for an authoritarian regime.Xi Jinping, China’s president, visited the People’s Bank of China for the first time, according to reports yesterday. “The purpose of the visit was not immediately known,” said Reuters, ominously.State media also reported that China had sharply lifted its 2023 budget deficit to about 3.8% of GDP because of an extra $137bn in government borrowing. That was up from 3%. The Global Times, a state-controlled newspaper, said the move would “benefit home consumption and the country’s economic growth”, citing an unnamed official.Germany’s economic fortunes were better than expected in October, according to a closely watched indicator – but whether it’s overall good news or bad depends on who you ask.The ifo business climate index rose from 85.8 to 86.9 points, higher than the 85.9 expected by economists polled beforehand by Reuters.Germany has been struggling as growth slows in China, a key export market, as well as the costs of switching from Russian gas to fuel its economy. You can read more context here:Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy, is firmly in team glass half empty. She said:
The small rise in the Ifo business climate index (BCI) in October still left the index in contractionary territory, echoing the downbeat message from the composite PMI released yesterday. This chimes with our view that the German economy is again recession.
Despite the improvement in October, the bigger picture remains that the German economy is struggling. The Ifo current conditions index, which has a better relationship with GDP than the BCI, is still consistent with GDP contracting by around 1% quarter-on-quarter. This is an even worse picture than that painted by the composite PMI, which fell in October but points to output dropping by “only” 0.5% quarter-on-quarter.
But journalist Holger Zschaepitz said it looks like things are improving:UK house prices will continue to slide this year and in 2024 and will not start to recover until 2025, Lloyds Banking Group has forecast.The lender, which owns Halifax and is Britain’s largest mortgage provider, said that by the end of 2023 UK house prices will have fallen 5% over the course of the year and are likely to fall another 2.4% in 2024.Those forecasts, which were released alongside its third-quarter financial results on Wednesday, suggest UK house prices will have dropped 11% from their peak last year, when the market was still being fuelled by a rush for larger homes in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.Lloyds said the first signs of growth would only start to emerge in 2025, with its economists predicting a 2.3% increase in house prices that year.You can read the full report here:The Israel-Hamas conflict adds another cloud on the horizon for the global economy, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).Kristalina Georgieva was at “Davos in the desert”, a big conference hosted by Saudi Arabia.The Future Investment Initiative conference was the subject of boycotts five years ago when Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman allegedly ordered the murder of exiled critic Jamal Khasoggi. The distaste of global leaders has apparently faded since, however.Speaking on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Georgieva said (via Reuters):
What we see is more jitters in what has already been an anxious world. And on a horizon that had plenty of clouds, one more – and it can get deeper.
The war has been devastating for Israel and Gaza. Hamas killed more than 1,400 people and took more than 220 people as hostages in an assault on Israel. The health ministry in Gaza, which is run by Hamas, said last night that Gaza’s total death toll after 18 days of retaliatory bombing was 5,791 people, including 2,360 children.The broader economic impacts have been relatively limited, but Georgieva said that some neighbouring countries were feeling them:
Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan. There, the channels of impact are already visible. Uncertainty is a killer for tourists inflows. Investors are going to be shy to go to that place.
Reckitt, the maker of Dettol bleach and Finish dishwasher products, has missed sales expectations as revenues dropped 3.6% year-on-year in the third quarter.Its shares were down 2.3% on Wednesday morning, despite it also committing to buy back £1bn in shares.It missed expectations because of the comparison with strong sales in the same period last year in its nutrition division, which makes baby milk powder.Kris Licht, Reckitt’s chief executive, said:
Reckitt delivered a strong quarter with 6.7% like-for-like growth across our hygiene and health businesses and has maintained market leadership in our US nutrition business.
We are firmly on track to deliver our full year targets, despite some tough prior year comparatives that we continue to face in our US Nutrition business and across our OTC [over-the-counter medicines] portfolio in the fourth quarter.
Speaking of Deutsche Bank, it posted its own earnings this morning: third-quarter profits dropped by 8%, but that was better than expected by analysts.Shares in Deutsche, which has struggled in the long shadow of the financial crisis, are up 4.2% in early trading.Reuters reported:
The bank was slightly more optimistic on its revenue outlook for the full year, forecasting it would reach €29bn ($30.73bn), the top end of its previous guidance range, as it upgraded the outlook for revenue at the retail division.
Net profit attributable to shareholders at Germany’s largest bank was €1.031bn, better than analyst expectations for profit of around €937m.
Though earnings dropped, it marked the 13th consecutive profitable quarter, a considerable streak in the black after years of hefty losses.
Here are the opening snaps from across Europe’s stock market indices, via Reuters:
EUROPE’S STOXX 600 DOWN 0.1%
FRANCE’S CAC 40 DOWN 0.4%
SPAIN’S IBEX DOWN 0.3%
EURO STOXX INDEX DOWN 0.2%
EURO ZONE BLUE CHIPS DOWN 0.3%
European indices appeared to be taking their lead from the US, where Google owner Alphabet’s share price dropped in after-hours trading last night. That dragged down futures for US tech companies, even though another tech titan, Microsoft, pleased investors.Analysts led by Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank said:
Microsoft saw its shares rise +3.95% in after-market trading as revenues of $56.52bn (+13% y/y) beat estimates of $54.54bn and EPS came in at $2.99 (v $2.65 expected). The beat comes on the back of recovering cloud-computing growth with corporate customers spending more than expected. The other megacap, Alphabet, missed on their cloud revenue estimates at $8.4bn (v $8.6bn) with the share price falling -5.93% after hours as operating income and margins both surprised slightly to the downside.
You can read more about Google’s performance here:We’re off to the races on the London Stock Exchange this morning: and the FTSE 100 has dipped at the open.Shares on London’s blue-chip index are down by 0.15% in the early trades. Lloyds Banking Group shares initially moved higher, but now they are down 2.1% after they flagged increasing competition hitting net interest margins.Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.The US has ordered the immediate halt of exports to China of hi-tech computer chips used for artificial intelligence, chipmaker Nvidia has said.Nvidia said the US had brought forward a ban which had given the company 30 days from 17 October to stop shipments. Instead of a grace period, the ban is “effective immediately”, the company said in a statement to US regulators.The company did not say why the ban had been brought forward so abruptly, but it comes amid a deep rivalry between the US and China over who will dominate the AI boom.Nvidia said that shipments of its A100, A800, H100, H800, and L40S chips would be affected. Those chips, which retail at several thousand dollars apiece, are specifically designed for use in datacentres to train AI and large language models.Demand for AI chips has soared as excitement has grown about the capabilities of generative AI, which can produce new text, images and video based on the inputs of huge volumes of data.Nvidia said it “does not anticipate that the accelerated timing of the licensing requirements will have a near-term meaningful impact on its financial results”.Lloyds profits up but competition squeezes marginsIn the UK, Lloyds Banking Group has reported a rise in profits even as it said competition was hitting its margins as mortgage rates fall back.Britain’s biggest bank said it made £1.9bn in profits from July to September, an increase compared to the £576m for the same period last year. The comparison has an important caveat, however: the bank has restated its financials to conform to new accounting rules.Net interest margin – the measure of the difference between the cost of borrowing and what it charges customers when it lends – was 3.08% in the third quarter, down 0.06 percentage points in the quarter “given the expected mortgage and deposit pricing headwinds”, it said.The bank did set aside £800m to deal with rising defaults from borrowers, but said that it was still seeing “broadly stable credit trends and resilient asset quality”.The agenda More

Nearly one in four Americans believe that political violence may be justified to “save” the country, a national opinion poll has found.The 14th annual American Values Survey, carried out by the non-profit Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) in partnership with the Brookings Institution thinktank, offers a snapshot of America’s deepening polarisation and willingness to contemplate taking up arms.Even as Joe Biden has sought to lower the temperature, support for political violence has increased over the past two years, the survey shows. Today about 23% of Americans agree that “because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country” – up from 15% in 2021.The PRRI has asked this question in eight separate surveys since March 2021 but this is the first time that support for political violence has risen above 20% in the general population.One in three Republicans believe that “true American patriots” may have to resort to violence to save the country, compared with 22% of independents and 13% of Democrats – all representing increases since 2021. Almost one in three white evangelical Protestants believe that patriots may have to resort to political violence to save the country, markedly higher than any other religious group.Support for political violence jumps to even higher levels among Americans who believe that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump (46%); Americans who hold a favourable view of Trump (41%); Americans who believe in the so-called “replacement theory” (41%); Americans who affirm the core tenet of white Christian nationalism, that God intended America to be a new promised land for European Christians (39%).“The political temperature in America is rising, and this year’s American Values Survey results reflect that reality,” said PRRI’s president and founder, Robert P Jones. “Our last presidential election was the first in our history without a peaceful transfer of power. With flashes of political violence continuing among us, and the 2024 election on the horizon, we should be deeply concerned about the growing number of Americans who express openness to political violence.”Trump, facing 91 criminal charges in four jurisdictions, has used ever more violent rhetoric in recent months, prompting warnings that such discourse is becoming normalised. The former president falsely claimed the former joint chiefs of staff chairman Gen Mark Milley committed “treason” and suggested he be executed, called for police to shoot shoplifters on sight and claimed that migrants illegally crossing the southern border are “poisoning the blood of our country”.Trump, who denies without evidence that he lost the 2020 election, is the current frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. The PRRI study found three in four Americans say the future of democracy is at risk in next year’s election. Democrats (84%) are most likely to hold this view but 77% of Republicans and 73% of independents also agree.PRRI has also been tracking the QAnon conspiracy movement since 2021. Across party lines there has been a significant increase in QAnon believers (from 14% to 23%) and a decrease in QAnon rejecters (from 40% to 29%). Republicans remain twice as likely as Democrats to be QAnon believers (29% v 14%) and are three times less likely to be QAnon rejecters (14% v 43%).The survey was conducted among a representative sample of 2,525 adults living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Interviews were conducted online between 25 and 30 August. More

Mike Johnson was nominated to lead the US House of Representatives on Tuesday, though it was unclear whether he would merely become the latest hopeful to fall victim to party infighting that has paralyzed Congress for more than three weeks.Johnson, of Louisiana, is the fourth Republican this month to win the party’s nomination for the speaker’s chair, which has sat vacant since a small faction of party rebels ousted Kevin McCarthy on 3 October.Republicans’ disarray has left lawmakers unable to respond to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, or take steps to head off a partial government shutdown that would begin on 18 November without congressional action.It was not clear whether Johnson would be able to overcome divisions that have tripped up three other candidates who had previously won the party’s nomination. In a sign of those divisions, the second-place finisher in the nominating vote was the ousted McCarthy, who secured 43 votes despite not being a declared candidate.Tom Emmer, the No. 3 House Republican, won the nomination earlier in the day, only to withdraw hours later due to opposition from the party’s right flank.Like Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan before him, Emmer’s prospects were doomed by a relatively small group of holdouts who denied him the 217 votes he needed. That high threshold and the party’s narrow 221-212 majority means that any candidate can afford to lose just four votes if Democrats remain united in opposition.“We have no capacity at the moment to come to a verdict, and that is a very distressing place to be,” congressman Marc Molinaro said.Johnson, a conservative constitutional law attorney, has billed himself as a bridge builder between the various Republican factions. The north-west Louisiana district he represents is one of the poorest in the US.“He knows everybody very well, does a great job with bringing people to the floor, talking about our policies, and that’s what we need right now,” said Kevin Hern, who withdrew his own bid to support Johnson.Johnson bested Byron Donalds, Mark Green, Roger Williams and Chuck Fleischmann in the latest Republican speaker nomination fight. In total, 14 Republicans have put their names forward for speaker this month.Emmer dropped his bid after Donald Trump urged Republicans to oppose him. Unlike many in his party, Emmer voted to certify Joe Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump after the 6 January 2021 attack on the Capitol by Trump supporters.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump earlier this month had backed Jordan’s bid for the speakership, but Republicans gave up on his attempt last week after Jordan lost three floor votes.Before that, No. 2 House Republican Steve Scalise dropped his own bid when he was unable to line up enough votes to win the job.Democrats have said they are open to a compromise candidate who would allow the chamber to function. Many Republicans have said on principle that they would not back somebody who had support from the opposition party.“We must pursue a bipartisan path forward and reopen the House,” top House Democrat Hakeem Jeffries said on social media.The uncertainty has also helped to push up the US government’s borrowing costs. The government posted a record $1.7tn deficit for the most recent fiscal year, in part due to higher interest payments. More

The Minnesota representative Tom Emmer has abandoned his bid for speaker after it became clear he had no pathway to winning the 217 votes required to become speaker. He abandoned his bid hours after getting enough votes to be the GOP nominee.Emmer is the third Republican who has withdrawn from the speakership race after initially getting the nod from a majority of the conference. Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Jim Jordan of Ohio previously launched unsuccessful efforts.Emmer’s failure to get the speakership is the latest development in a remarkably embarrassing three weeks for House Republicans that came after they ousted Kevin McCarthy as speaker.Emmer won the nomination to be speaker shortly after noon ET on Tuesday, defeating Louisiana congressman Mike Johnson by 117-97 in a secret ballot vote. After becoming the nominee, Republicans took a non-secret roll call vote in which 26 members said they would vote against Emmer in a floor vote, according to Punchbowl News, making his pathway to getting 217 votes virtually impossible. Republicans hold a 221-212 majority in the House, meaning that whoever is eventually elected speaker needs to get the support of almost the entire conference, assuming all Democrats vote for their leader, Hakeem Jeffries of New York.Johnson and Kevin Hern, the chairman of the Republican study committee and one of the eight candidates Emmer defeated on Tuesday, immediately announced they were running for speaker.Donald Trump also publicly came out against Emmer’s candidacy Tuesday afternoon.“I have many wonderful friends wanting to be Speaker of the House, and some are truly great Warriors,” Trump said in a statement posted on Truth Social, his social media network. “RINO Tom Emmer, who I do not know well, is not one of them. He never respected the Power of a Trump Endorsement, or the breadth and scope of MAGA-MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! He fought me all the way.”Emmer abruptly left a meeting of House Republicans Tuesday afternoon, shortly before it was announced he was ending his bid, Punchbowl reported.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionUnlike many of his colleagues, Emmer voted to certify the 2020 election in Congress. When he led House Republicans’ campaign arm, he also reportedly advised candidates to not talk about Trump on the campaign trail – something Emmer strongly denies. More

It looks like Tom Emmer is out of the speakership scramble…Emmer has dropped out of the race, per multiple reports, including the Washington Post, CNN and NBC. The Minnesota congressman is the third Republican speaker nominee since Kevin McCarthy was ousted.Emmer goes the way of representatives Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan, neither of whom was able to unite their party’s far-right and moderate factions to back them. Emmer’s bid lasted just a few hours – he was nominated by the House GOP at lunchtime.House Republicans’ long search for a leader is far from over. Tom Emmer, the latest member vying for the speakership, announced he was dropping out of the race just four hours after his peers designated him as a nominee.Like Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan before him, Emmer couldn’t unite House GOP members to back him. His detractors on the far-right cited his stance on same-sex marriage and government spending bills, and his willingness to certify the 2020 election in Congress.In other news:
Jenna Ellis, a former lawyer to Donald Trump who was indicted in the Georgia election subversion case, accepted a plea deal from prosecutors.
Trump’s former White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, testified that the former president was told repeatedly that his allegations of voting fraud were baseless, according to report from ABC. This is the latest, and perhaps most damning evidence yet in the federal government’s case against Trump .
Donald Trump’s former White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, spoke with the special counsel investigating the former president several times, testifying that Trump was told repeatedly that his allegations of voting fraud were baseless, according to ABC.Per ABC, which sites unnamed sources familiar with the matter:
The sources said Meadows informed [special counsel Jack] Smith’s team that he repeatedly told Trump in the weeks after the 2020 presidential election that the allegations of significant voting fraud coming to them were baseless, a striking break from Trump’s prolific rhetoric regarding the election.
Meadows also told the federal investigators Trump was being “dishonest” with the public when he first claimed to have won the election only hours after polls closed on Nov. 3, 2020, before final results were in.
Such testimony would be among the most damning evidence yet in special counsel’s case alleging that Trump tried to unlawfully retain power after losing the 2020 election to Joe Biden.On Fox Business, far-right representative Marjorie Taylor Greene said she couldn’t support Tom Emmer because he hadn’t supported a ban on trans people serving in the military, and because he supported the “voting rights … national voting movement that was completely against what we stand for”.It looks like Tom Emmer is out of the speakership scramble…Emmer has dropped out of the race, per multiple reports, including the Washington Post, CNN and NBC. The Minnesota congressman is the third Republican speaker nominee since Kevin McCarthy was ousted.Emmer goes the way of representatives Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan, neither of whom was able to unite their party’s far-right and moderate factions to back them. Emmer’s bid lasted just a few hours – he was nominated by the House GOP at lunchtime.Punchbowl News reports that Republicans are returning to a Capitol complex meeting room for behind-closed-door discussions that could decide whether they move forward with Tom Emmer’s candidacy as speaker:The Minnesota congressman, who, as the party’s whip is the third-highest-ranking Republican in the House, won the GOP nomination for speaker this afternoon, but now faces opposition from perhaps 26 of his counterparts – which means defeat in a floor vote.We’ll be looking out for details on what Republicans decide at this meeting.Earlier in the day, House Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar weighed in on congressman Dean Phillips’s attempt to make a deal with Republicans.The Minnesota Democrat had suggested he would be willing to vote “present” and lower the threshold for Republican Tom Emmer to win election as speaker on the House floor in exchange for policy concessions around aid to Ukraine and Israel, among other things.That would represent a break from Democrats’ tactics ever since Kevin McCarthy was ousted, which have generally involved sitting back and doing nothing while the GOP fights among themselves. But with perhaps 26 Republicans willing to oppose his candidacy as speaker, it would not be enough to save Emmer, and Aguilar made clear the rest of the party is not on board.Here are his comments:The ranks of Tom Emmer’s detractors appear to be growing.Rightwing Florida congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna is not among those reported to have voted against Emmer behind closed doors, but now says she would oppose him on the House floor:That could mean his opponents number 27, which would guarantee his defeat.Wondering who exactly is this Tom Emmer fellow, emerged from the (figurative) wilds of Minnesota to be the latest Republican congressman (all men, so far) to attempt to grasp and keep hold of the gavel of the speaker of the US House? Let the Guardian’s Sam Levine enlighten you:The Minnesota congressman Tom Emmer will now be the third party leader to try to galvanize enough support among Republicans after Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Jim Jordan of Ohio failed in their bids to be House speaker.It remains unclear if Emmer will be able to get the 217 votes he needs to be speaker, but – for the moment at least – he is in the center of the ongoing crisis gripping the party and causing chaos in the heart of US government.Emmer was elected to Congress in 2014, replacing Michele Bachmann, a far-right figutr who was one of the earliest Tea Party stars. When he initially ran to replace her, he was described as “Bachmann 2.0”, by the left-leaning Mother Jones magazine, but after he was elected he said he would be more low key.Emmer represents Minnesota’s sixth congressional district, which includes a partial ring of Minneapolis suburbs and extends north-west from the city. The district is solidly conservative: Donald Trump carried it in 2020 by more than 17 points.Emmer broke with many of his Republican colleagues and voted to certify the 2020 election.“Simply put, Congress does not have the authority to discard an individual slate of electors certified by a state’s legislature in accordance with their constitution,” he said.He did, however, sign on to a brief at the supreme court urging the justices to throw out the electoral votes from key swing states and suggested there may have been fraud as he supported Trump’s legal challenges to the election results, CNN reported.Read on here:Courtesy of Politico, here is a full list of all of Tom Emmer’s opponents among the House GOP, and who they voted for.As you can see, many cast ballots for Jim Jordan, a prominent rightwing lawmaker and 2020 election denier who last week abandoned his bid for speaker after concluding he could not win a floor vote:CNN, meanwhile, heard from Indiana’s Jim Banks, who had no problems pillorying Emmer:Tom Emmer’s issues with Donald Trump and his allies are well known, and it appeared the Minnesota congressman had moved to address them.While campaigning in New Hampshire yesterday, the former president batted away a question about whether he was opposed to Emmer becoming speaker – video of which was posted by the congressman, as a sign he had Trump’s support:It was apparently all for naught, since Trump has now put out a strongly worded statement against Emmer.Politico had a good rundown over the weekend of why Trump is opposed to Emmer, who is notable for not supporting attempts to certify election results in swing states that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, as some of the other speaker candidates had. Here’s more from Politico:
The former president’s top allies are already working to thwart Emmer’s candidacy. Trump supporters have begun passing around opposition research on the congressmember, and the pro-Trump “War Room” podcast on Friday afternoon turned into an Emmer bash-fest. During an appearance on the program, top Trump adviser Boris Epshteyn noted that Emmer had yet to endorse Trump in the Republican presidential primary.
“If somebody is so out of step with where the Republican electorate is, where the MAGA movement is, how can they even be in the conversation?” Epshteyn said. “We need a MAGA speaker. That’s what it comes down to. Because if you look at the numbers, if you look at the energy, if you look at the heat, this is the Trump party, this is the MAGA party. It is no longer the old-school khaki establishment Republican Party.”
Steve Bannon, a former Trump White House adviser and the “War Room” host, chimed in to call Emmer a “Trump hater.”
Others close to Trump said Emmer as speaker would open a breach between House Republicans and their likely presidential nominee. Emmer “has no relationship with Trump,” one adviser said.
And … Donald Trump hath spoken. And … he isn’t a fan of Tom Emmer, the current choice of the Republican party to be speaker of the US House.
I have many wonderful friends wanting to be Speaker of the House, and some are truly great Warriors. RINO Tom Emmer, who I do not know well, is not one of them. He never respected the Power of a Trump Endorsement, or the breadth and scope of MAGA – MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! He fought me all the way, and actually spent more time defending Ilhan Omar, than he did me—He is totally out-of-touch with Republican Voters. I believe he has now learned his lesson, because he is saying that he is Pro-Trump all the way, but who can ever be sure? Has he only changed because that’s what it takes to win? The Republican Party cannot take that chance, because that’s not where the America First Voters are. Voting for a Globalist RINO like Tom Emmer would be a tragic mistake!
That word salad brought to you by Truth Social, of course. Whether Emmer has “fought Trump all the way” or not is, to put it mildly, doubtful. He didn’t vote to overturn the 2020 election but he did sign on to a lawsuit seeking to throw out results, and so forth.Ilhan Omar, meanwhile, is a Democratic representative from Minnesota – Emmer’s state – a migrant from Somalia, both one of the first two Muslim women elected to Congress and a leading progressive, part of a so-called “Squad” of left-leaning Democratic women.In July 2019, a crowd at a Trump rally in North Carolina targeted Omar with chants of “send her back”. Amid condemnation (Omar said: “I believe [Trump] is fascist”), Emmer said: “I didn’t watch the rally last night, sorry, but there’s no place for that kind of talk. I don’t agree with it.”Trump – who at the time said himself he was “not happy” with the crowd and claimed to have tried to stop the chants – may now wish to consider that in the same session with reporters, Emmer both said he didn’t think Trump had a “racist bone” in his body, and tried to explain Trump’s attacks on Omar.“What he was trying to say he said wrong,” Emmer said. “What he was trying to say is that if you don’t appreciate this country you don’t have to be here. It has nothing to do with your race or gender, or your family history. It has to do with respecting and loving the country that is giving you the opportunities that you have.“I had somebody say to me recently: ‘You know when Ilhan talks, Ilhan makes it look like she lets people believe she hates America.’ Now I don’t know if that’s true, but as somebody said to me back at home, they said to me: ‘How about a little gratitude with that attitude?’”Sidney Blumenthal’s Guardian column today – on the short-lived candidacy for speaker of Jim Jordan, the end of which precipitated today’s votes and the rise of Tom Emmer – is worth your time, starting from the opening lines about the necessity of counting votes and proceeding through Jordan’s unique political career:Jim Jordan’s march to seize the Capitol began as a beer hall putsch but veered into Sesame Street. Vote after vote, he has missed the sagacity of the Count, the puppet Dracula who teaches children the number of the day. Former speaker Nancy Pelosi wryly remarked that the Republicans should “take a lesson in mathematics and learning how to count”.After the second round, Jordan threw in the towel from his stool in the corner: no más! He endorsed instead extending the tenure and power of Patrick McHenry, the speaker pro tempore, until someone could figure something else out. But Jim Jordan the consensus builder was a short-lived phenomenon. The spirit of violence swirled around him.Read on:Steve Scalise, the majority leader, emerges to talk about the talks (and discuss the discussions) going on behind closed doors. Speaking to reporters at the Capitol, Scalise, of Louisiana and a previous candidate for speaker, says of the 20 or more holdouts against Emmer: “There’s some conversations, some are moving.”From the top: “First of all, I want to congratulate Tom Emmer on being selected our speaker designate with strong support. We are working right now through some questions still and we just continue our conversations.“Obviously we want to work to make sure when we get to the floor we have 217 [votes, to make Emmer speaker] and that’s something that Tom has said he wants to do before we go to the floor. So we’re gonna have some more conversations, but this is an ongoing process. We like to wrap this up today, but we’re still talking to some individual members.”Asked about the likelihood of Emmer (from Minnesota) making it to the floor today, Scalise says: “There’s some conversations, some are moving. You got to continue having these conversations. That’s what we’re doing right now.”Emmer, Scalise says, is “hearing everybody in those conversations going on as we speak. So that’s the first thing that Tom’s doing, is hearing people out, and that’s what, frankly, this whole process has been about. And so he’s got to hear people out. Ultimately, work to to move them over. And we’ve got to keep working until we get to 217. And I’m gonna do what I can to help Tom.”Matt Gaetz of Florida, who started this whole mess by prompting the ejection of Kevin McCarthy, then appears and stalks off, followed by the media scrum.Some reading to pass the time while we wait for Tom Emmer to speak – or not – concerning the last person to actually be speaker, Kevin McCarthy, and his relationships with Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, the two anti-Trump Republicans who sat on the House January 6 committee and subsequently left Congress, Cheney defeated in Wyoming and Kinzinger retired in Illinois.Kinzinger will next week publish a book: Renegade: Defending Democracy and Liberty in Our Divided Country.Inside, he says McCarthy dismissed Cheney’s warning about January 6 on a party conference call five days before.Kinzinger also details two occasions on which, he says, McCarthy shoulder-checked him, physically, in the House chamber.Those moments, Kinzinger says, made him think: “What a child.’”In a passage written before McCarthy’s historic ejection by Matt Gaetz of Florida, the catalyst for the current mess, Kinzinger adds: “I just chalked it up to the immature behaviour that [McCarthy] favoured and that had become more and more common inside the chamber.”Full story:House Republicans have nominated Tom Emmer to become the next speaker of Congress’s lower chamber, but their long search for leadership is far from over. As many as 26 members of the party signaled they will not vote for him on the floor, more than enough to sink his candidacy. This is the exact same position Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan found themselves in, and highlights just how disunited the GOP has become and what an absolute mess that ouster of Kevin McCarthy created. Emmer has reportedly vowed to continue polling Republicans behind closed doors until he gets the support he needs to win. We’ll see what becomes of that.Here’s a rundown of today’s news so far:
Jenna Ellis, a former lawyer to Donald Trump who was indicted in the Georgia election subversion case, accepted a plea deal from prosecutors.
Emmer’s detractors cite his stance on same-sex marriage and on government spending bills.
Dean Phillips, a Democratic congressman who is mulling challenging Joe Biden in the primary, said he would be willing to vote “present” when Emmer’s nomination is considered in exchange for policy concessions.
Tom Emmer is pressing on in the face of the significant GOP opposition to his candidacy for speaker.CNN reports that he wants to continue holding roll call votes behind closed doors until he has the numbers he needs to win. But if he is not successful, congressman David Joyce says he will offer a resolution to give acting speaker Patrick McHenry the full powers of the job. Joyce made the same proposal last week, when Jim Jordan’s candidacy was flailing:Up to 26 Republicans may oppose Tom Emmer becoming speaker of the House, enough to stop him from getting the gavel, Punchbowl News reports:Assuming all Democrats vote against him, Emmer can only afford to lose four of the 221 Republicans in the House – a goal he appears to be well short of.The nominees who came before him, Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan, faced the same problem, and ultimately had to drop out. House Republicans have not yet announced when they will convene the chamber to hold a floor vote on making Emmer speaker. More

The Minnesota congressman Tom Emmer was the third party leader to try to galvanize enough support among Republicans to be House speaker after Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Jim Jordan of Ohio failed in their bids.But he rapidly found he was unableto muster the 217 votes he needed to get the job.He was for a few hours at the center of the ongoing crisis gripping the party and causing chaos in the heart of US government. But Emmer did not even make it to a public floor vote in the House before his support ebbed away and he dropped out – not least due to withering attacks by the former US president Donald Trump.Emmer was first elected to Congress in 2014, replacing Michele Bachmann, a far-right member of Congress who was one of the earliest members of the Tea Party. When he initially ran to replace her, he was described as “Bachmann 2.0”, by the left-leaning Mother Jones magazine, but after he was elected he said he would be more low key than she was.Emmer represents Minnesota’s sixth congressional district, which includes a partial ring of Minneapolis suburbs and extends north-west from the city. The district is solidly conservative – Donald Trump handily carried the district in 2020 by more than 17 points.Emmer broke with many of his Republican colleagues and voted to certify the 2020 election. “Simply put, Congress does not have the authority to discard an individual slate of electors certified by a state’s legislature in accordance with their constitution,” he said in a statement after certification.He did, however, sign on to a brief at the supreme court urging the justices to throw out the electoral votes from key swing states and suggested there may have been fraud as he supported Trump’s legal challenges to the election results, CNN reported.Emmer’s rise in Congress was shaped by two terms he spent as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the wing of the House Republicans that helps the party defend and pick up seats. During Emmer’s first term as chair in 2020, Republicans gained a net 13 seats, getting them very close to a majority. In 2022, in Emmer’s second term, Republicans gained that majority, though they didn’t pick up as many seats as expected.During the midterm elections last year, CNN reported Emmer reportedly advised candidates not to talk about Trump on the campaign trail – an accusation he strongly denies. That history, in addition to Emmer’s vote to certify the election, has reportedly cause friction with Trump, whose allies are said to be pushing to block him from the speakership.Trump himself said he was largely staying out of the speaker’s race and noted that Emmer had called him to offer praise. “I think he’s my biggest fan now,” he told reporters on Monday in New Hampshire.After Republicans won control of the House last year, Emmer won a contentious election to be the majority whip, the number three position in leadership that is in charge of counting votes. He narrowly defeated the Indiana representative Jim Banks in a contest that reportedly generated bad blood.In addition to his vote to certify the election, Emmer has also taken at least one other vote that broke with the majority of his caucus. Last year, he was one of 39 Republicans to vote in favor of having the federal government recognize same-sex marriages.Before serving in Congress, Emmer was a lawyer and state representative in Minnesota, where in 2005 he backed a bill favoring chemical castration for some sex offenders. In 2010, he ran for governor, losing by an extremely close 9,000 votes after a recount. He has seven children. More

After three weeks of the House having no speaker and mere hours after Tom Emmer of Minnesota won the nomination, the House still did not have a speaker on Tuesday when Emmer dropped out after just hours.Again, Republicans have failed to unify after the historic removal of Kevin McCarthy.Ahead of the Tuesday vote, seven House Republicans had launched speakership bids: Emmer, Jack Bergman of Michigan, Byron Donalds of Florida, Kevin Hern of Oklahoma, Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Austin Scott of Georgia and Pete Sessions of Texas. Two other declared candidates, Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania and Gary Palmer of Alabama, announced before the Tuesday vote that they would withdraw from the race.Sessions, Bergman, Scott and Hern were eliminated after the first four ballots, while Donalds dropped out following the fourth round of voting. On the fifth and final ballot, Emmer and Johnson were the only two candidates, and Emmer pulled off the win, becoming the conference’s third speaker nominee in three weeks.The final vote was 117 to 97, underscoring the significant challenge that Emmer faced in attempting to unify his deeply divided conference. An internal roll call vote taken after Emmer won the nomination indicated that more than 20 Republicans intended to oppose him on the floor, members told reporters. Although Emmer tried to allay those members’ concerns, he was unable to sway enough of his detractors to advance to a floor vote.Of the declared candidates, Emmer was arguably the best known within the conference, because of his position in House leadership. But Emmer has shown an occasional willingness to clash with Donald Trump, which raised issues with some of his House colleagues. For example, Emmer is one of just two speaker candidates, along with Scott, who voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election despite the former president’s false claims of widespread fraud in battleground states. However, Emmer also signed an amicus brief urging the US supreme court to invalidate the election results of four key swing states, which would have voided Biden’s victory in the presidential race.Emmer’s mixed record on election denial was not enough to assuage the concerns of Trump, who urged House Republicans to oppose the speaker nominee on Tuesday. Writing on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump warned that a vote for Emmer would be “a tragic mistake”.“I have many wonderful friends wanting to be Speaker of the House, and some are truly great Warriors,” Trump said. “Tom Emmer, who I do not know well, is not one of them.”Emmer’s nomination came four days after Jim Jordan of Ohio abandoned his speakership bid due to entrenched opposition among more moderate Republicans.The House has now been without a speaker for three weeks, since McCarthy’s ouster earlier this month. Because of Republicans’ razor-thin majority in the House, any speaker candidate can only afford four defections within the party and still secure the 217 votes needed to win the gavel.As the House remains at a standstill, the chamber is unable to advance any legislation. Joe Biden has called on Congress to pass a supplemental funding package providing aid to Ukraine and Israel, but the House cannot consider such a bill until a new speaker is elected.Despite the high stakes, House Republicans have been unable to unify around a single candidate. Following McCarthy’s removal, the House majority leader, Steve Scalise of Louisiana, won the conference’s speaker nomination, but he dropped out days later amid fierce backlash from hard-right lawmakers. Jordan then won Republicans’ speaker nomination, but he was forced to withdraw after three failed floor votes.“Chaos and dysfunction continue to be the order of the day in the House Republican majority,” the House Democratic caucus chair, Pete Aguilar of California, said Tuesday. “The American people and our allies abroad can’t afford any more delays. Every day of this Maga [‘Make America Great Again’] madness is another day of not sending aid to Israel and Ukraine, not taking meaningful steps to fund our government and not making sure that we’re looking out for working families across this country.”In a potentially grim sign for Republicans’ hopes of quickly reaching a resolution to the deadlock, the hard-right House Freedom Caucus has demanded that members remain in Washington DC until a new speaker is elected, jeopardizing the chamber’s planned recess starting next week.“We must proceed with all possible speed and determination,” the caucus said in a statement released on Monday. “Intentional and unnecessary delays must end. It serves only the lobbyists of the swamp and defenders of the status quo to continue to drag out this process.” More