US Politics

The United States debt limit is a legislative limit on the overall debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running budget deficits, the debt keeps increasing. Congress could deal with this permanently by either repealing the debt limit, or increasing it to a very large number.

But instead, Congress has only increased the debt limit enough to give grace for a year or two before it needs to be increased again. The last time the debt limit was increased was December 2021.

The US hit the debt limit on January 19 this year. The Treasury has been taking extraordinary measures to delay a default, but these measures could fail as early as June 1. While the US has never defaulted, there were debt limit crises in 2011 and 2013.

The main reason for the 2011 and 2013 crises was divided government – Democrat Barack Obama was president and Republicans controlled the House of Representatives. This situation is the same now, with Democrat Joe Biden as president and Republicans controlling the House. Republicans have attempted to use the debt limit to demand spending cuts.

Read more:
A brief history of debt ceiling crises and the political chaos they’ve unleashed

Republicans only hold a 222-213 House majority, and it took 15 rounds of voting for Republican Kevin McCarthy to be elected House speaker in early January. But right-wing Republicans won concessions from McCarthy, and the speaker decides what comes to the floor for a vote.

To keep the right onside, McCarthy will probably deny a vote on any debt ceiling increase that excludes major spending cuts, and such cuts would be unacceptable to Democrats.

Democrats had overall control of the presidency, House and Senate until January 3 when the new House started. But they made no real attempt to increase the debt limit and avert a crisis until after the 2024 presidential election. If there is a default, the failure to increase the limit will come back to haunt Democrats, the US and the world economy.

A weaker economy in the presidential election year of 2024 is likely to hurt Biden, so Republicans have some incentive to not compromise on the spending cuts they are demanding.

On April 26, Republicans passed a bill through the House of Representatives by a 217-215 margin that would raise the debt limit in return for big spending cuts that Democrats strongly oppose. All Democrats that voted were opposed.

This bill has no chance of passing the Democratic-controlled Senate, and would be vetoed by Biden. But it showed that Republicans could pass their agenda. Had the House not passed this bill or something similar, there would be more pressure on Republicans to pass a “clean” debt limit increase – an increase without any spending cuts.

As it is, McCarthy can argue that the House has done its job, and that Democrats need to give ground on spending cuts.

In the last week there have been negotiations over the debt limit between Democratic and Republican leaders, but these negotiations have broken down in the last two days, with both sides blaming the other for changing their positions.

Left-wing Democrats have been urging Biden to use Section 4 of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution, and effectively declare the debt limit unconstitutional. However, the US Supreme Court currently has a six-to-three right-leaning majority, so it’s unclear whether they would support Biden.

Trump way ahead of DeSantis in Republican primary polls

Republicans and Democrats will both select their presidential candidates for the November 2024 election in a series of nominating contests in each state in early 2024, at which delegates to the national conventions are elected. When we are closer to the voting in the early states, polls of those states will be useful, but for now the national polling is better.

Former President Donald Trump has 53.5% of the vote in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate of national Republican presidential primary polls. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trails far behind on 20.8% and no other candidate has more than 6%. Since this aggregate started in early March, Trump has steadily increased his lead over DeSantis.

For the Democratic primary, there are polls that list many possible candidates, which indicate that Biden could face a contest if a high-profile candidate were to enter. However, Biden will easily defeat the only two other candidates who have actually entered: Robert F Kennedy Jr and Marianne Williamson.

General election Biden vs Trump polls are close

If Biden and Trump both win their parties’ nominations, which current polling suggests is likely, we will have a November 2024 rematch of the 2020 contest which Biden won. The RealClearPolitics average of national Biden vs Trump general election polls currently has Trump leading Biden 44.2-42.8%.

A key reason why this match-up is close is that Biden’s ratings have slumped since the beginning of his presidency.

In his first six months as president, Biden’s approval rating was over 50% in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate. But since October 2021, his approval rating has consistently been below 45%, while his disapproval has been over 50%. Biden’s ratings haven’t changed much in the last few months and are currently at 52.7% disapprove and 42.4% approve (net -10.4).

The two potential hurdles to Biden’s re-election are the economy and his age. A debt default would make the economy far worse, and Biden will be almost 82 by the November 2024 election, though Trump will be 78. More

US president Joe Biden and House Republican speaker Kevin McCarthy have held a “productive” phone call on the continued impasse over the debt ceiling and promised to meet on Monday after Biden returned to Washington.McCarthy, speaking to reporters after the call, said there were positive discussions on solving the crisis and that staff-level talks were set to resume later on Sunday.Asked if he was more hopeful after talking to the president, McCarthy said: “Our teams are talking today and we’re … meeting tomorrow. That’s better than it was earlier. So, yes.”Biden, who arrived back at the White House late on Sunday evening after his trip to Japan, said the call with McCarthy had gone well. “We’ll talk tomorrow,” he said.Speaking from the G7 summit in Japan on Sunday, Biden said he would be willing to cut spending together with tax adjustments to reach a deal, but the latest offer from Republicans on the ceiling was “unacceptable.”Less than two weeks remain until the 1 June deadline, upon which the Treasury department has said the federal government could be unable to pay all its debts.Without raising the debt limit, the US government will default on its bills, a historic first, with likely catastrophic consequences. Federal workers would be furloughed, global stock markets would crash and the US economy would probably drop into a recession.McCarthy’s comments on Sunday struck a more positive tone than the heated rhetoric of recent days which has seen talks stall.“Much of what they’ve already proposed is simply, quite frankly, unacceptable,” Biden told a news conference in Hiroshima. “It’s time for Republicans to accept that there is no bipartisan deal to be made solely, solely on their partisan terms. They have to move as well.”The president later tweeted that he would not agree to a deal that protected “Big Oil” subsidies and “wealthy tax cheats” while putting healthcare and food assistance at risk for millions of Americans.He also suggested some Republican lawmakers were willing to see the US default on its debt in the hope that the disastrous results would prevent Biden from winning re-election in 2024.After Sunday’s call, McCarthy said while there was still no final deal, there was an understanding to get negotiators on both sides back together before the two leaders met: “There’s no agreement. We’re still apart.”“What I’m looking at are where our differences are and how could we solve those, and I felt that part was productive,” he told reporters.McCarthy has said Republicans backed an increase in the defence budget while cutting overall spending, and that debt ceiling talks have not included discussions about tax cuts passed under former president Donald Trump.Ahead of the call with McCarthy, Biden stressed that he was open to making spending cuts and said he was not concerned they would lead to a recession, but he could not agree to Republicans’ current demands.Last month, the Republican-controlled House passed legislation that would cut a wide swath of government spending by 8% next year. Democrats say that would force average cuts of at least 22% on programs like education and law enforcement, a figure top Republicans have not disputed.Republicans hold a slim majority in the House and Biden’s fellow Democrats have narrow control of the Senate, so no deal can pass without bipartisan support. But time is running out, as Monday’s meeting will take place with just 10 days left to hammer out a deal before hitting Treasury’s deadline.McCarthy has said he will give House lawmakers 72 hours to review an agreement before bringing it up for a vote. More

New York mayor Eric Adams has warned that there are “more Jordan Neelys out there”, invoking the name of the unhoused man who was killed on the subway earlier in May as the Democratic mayor pushed his idea to force people with mental illness to access help.In an interview with MSNBC on Sunday, Adams called a dearth of such services – particularly for the city’s unhoused population – “a very real issue”.Neely, 30, died after 24-year-old Daniel Penny put him in a chokehold. Penny, who previously served in the marines, has been charged with manslaughter despite his claims of self-defense in a case that has inflamed racial tensions nationwide because he is white and Neely was Black.Adams said: “The case is now in the hands of the district attorney. I have a lot of confidence in DA [Alvin] Bragg.“I am clear on this. I can’t control the outcome of the case but I can control how we continue to address a very real issue,” Adams said. New York saw street protests demanding Penny’s arrest for Neely’s death.Adams alluded to earlier remarks that he had made calling for the “involuntary removal to the hospitals of those who are unable to take care of basic needs and they are [a] danger to themselves”.In November, Adams announced plans for authorities and emergency services to more aggressively hospitalize mentally ill people involuntarily, even if they do not pose any active threat to others.At the time of the announcement, Adams said his directive was an attempt to clear up a “gray area where policy, law and accountability have not been clear”, and he said that it was an “moral obligation to act” in response to a “crisis we see all around us”.Adams’s announcement faced swift backlash from civil rights organizations, unhoused people and their advocates, with the New York Civil Liberties Union accusing Adams of “playing fast and loose with the legal rights of New Yorkers and … not dedicating the resources necessary to address the mental health crises”.During Sunday’s interview, Adams urged the codification of involuntary removals, saying: “We need state health to codify what the courts have already ruled. That is the real issue. There are more Jordan Neelys out there.“And when I’m in the subway system speaking with them trying to get them into care, we know that we have to have help on a state level to codify this law.”Last year, the mayor, a former police officer, also announced a new subway safety plan and promised the expansion of outreach teams consisting of clinicians and police officers, which critics also condemned as cracking down against people experiencing mental illness and homelessness.Prior to his death, Neely had been a Michael Jackson impersonator. He had dealt with various mental health problems, including schizophrenia and post-traumatic stress disorder after his mother was murdered by an abusive partner when Neely was 14.According to police, Neely had over 40 prior arrests, and he had previously been accused of punching a fellow subway passenger. He also had over a dozen mental health encounters with police but had apparently not received mental health support.On the day of his death, Neely boarded a train and pleaded to passengers that he was hungry, homeless and thirsty. Penny placed him in a chokehold for several minutes.After Neely’s killing, Republicans have been swift to embrace Penny as he contests charges of second-degree manslaughter. More than $1m has been raised for Penny’s legal defense, largely through the Christian fundraising website GiveSendGo. The site also hosted fundraising efforts for US Capitol attack participants and Kyle Rittenhouse, who shot two racial justice demonstrators dead in Wisconsin and was acquitted of murder charges by claiming self-defense.During Neely’s funeral at a Harlem church on Friday, the civil rights activist and pastor Al Sharpton called for more support for people living with mental illnesses.“A Good Samaritan helps those in trouble. They don’t choke him out,” Sharpton said. “People keep criminalizing people that need help.“They don’t need abuse – they need help.” More

Republican US senator Bill Cassidy predicted on Sunday that Donald Trump would fail to win the 2024 presidential race if his party nominates him to run again, citing the poor performance of his endorsed candidates during last year’s midterms.“We saw in all the swing states, almost all – Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona – the candidates for Senate that Trump endorsed all lost,” Cassidy said of the former president on CNN’s State of the Union. “If past is prologue, that means President Trump is going to have a hard time in the swing states, which means he cannot win a general election.”The Louisiana Republican delivered those remarks after network host Jake Tapper asked him for his thoughts on comments that Florida’s conservative governor, Ron DeSantis, made on a recent call with donors about his chances of winning the White House.DeSantis – who has not formally announced himself as a candidate but is widely expected to do so – argued on the private call that he, Trump and Democratic incumbent Joe Biden were the only credible contenders for the presidency in 2024, according to the New York Times.“And I think of those three, two have a chance to get elected president – Biden and me,” DeSantis reportedly added.Cassidy said on Sunday that DeSantis’s comments were “a nice way” for the governor to cast aspersions on another “pretty formidable candidate”: the Republican US senator Tim Scott. Scott, of South Carolina, the only Black Republican serving in the Senate, filed paperwork on Friday to run for the presidency ahead of a formal campaign launch on Monday.“You just have to take this as a competitor trying to diss others,” said Cassidy, whom Louisiana first elected to the Senate in 2014.However, Cassidy added, DeSantis did have a point in arguing that Trump would be quite beatable in a rematch with Biden, to whom he lost when he ran for re-election in 2020.Cassidy alluded to how Trump threw his support behind Senate candidates Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz, Adam Laxalt and Blake Masters in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona, respectively, during last year’s midterm elections. And they respectively lost to Raphael Warnock, John Fetterman, Catherine Cortez Masto and Mark Kelly as the Democrats seized a two-seat majority in the upper congressional chamber.Cassidy also alluded to how other Republicans in those states performed well in political contests that didn’t draw Trump’s attention, leading the Louisianan to conclude that the former president’s “kind of high-profile endorsement of those candidates actually hurt those candidates” in the doomed Senate campaigns that he backed.Cassidy’s comments on Sunday were not the first time he has spoken out against Trump, whom polling has shown to be the leading contender for the Republicans’ 2024 presidential nomination.Trump maintains that lead despite unprecedented legal jeopardy, including over a hush money payment to an adult film actor, his retention of classified materials and 2020 election subversion.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionCassidy, along with six other Republicans in the Senate, voted to convict the former president after Trump was impeached over his role in the deadly attack that his supporters staged at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021. Trump, nonetheless, had more than enough votes to be acquitted at his impeachment trial.When Cassidy later said that he would not support Trump if he ran for the White House again, he prompted the ex-president to call him a “Rino”, which is an acronym meaning “Republican in name only”.Cassidy has been able to carve out a seat for himself at the negotiating table for some of the most prominent issues discussed on Capitol Hill by presenting himself as being willing to engage in bipartisan talks with Democrats and the Biden administration.He was one of the federal lawmakers who successfully pushed for the gun control bill that Biden signed into law last year, which expanded background checks for the youngest gun buyers while funding mental health and violence intervention programs amid a spate of deadly mass shootings across the US.Despite that legislation, the nation is on track to have its deadliest year in terms of mass shootings in recent memory, leading many to call for more substantial gun control measures. More

A transgender girl in Mississippi did not participate in her high school graduation ceremony on Saturday because school officials told her to dress like a boy and a federal judge did not block the officials’ decision, an attorney for the girl’s family said.Linda Morris, staff attorney at the American Civil Liberties Union’s Women’s Rights Project, said the ruling handed down late on Friday by federal judge Taylor McNeel in the Mississippi city of Gulfport “is as disappointing as it is absurd”.“Our client is being shamed and humiliated for explicitly discriminatory reasons, and her family is being denied a once-in-a-lifetime milestone in their daughter’s life,” Morris said. “No one should be forced to miss their graduation because of their gender.”The ACLU confirmed that the 17-year-old girl – listed in court papers only by her initials, LB – would skip the Saturday ceremony for Harrison Central high school in Gulfport, about 160 miles (260km) south of Jackson and 80 miles (129km) east of New Orleans.The student “has met the qualifications to receive a diploma”, according to the local public school district’s attorney, Wynn Clark.The ACLU sued the district on Thursday on behalf of the student and her parents after Harrison Central principal Kelly Fuller and school district superintendent Mitchell King told LB that she must follow the boys’ clothing rules. Graduating boys are expected to wear white shirts and black slacks, and girls are expected to wear white dresses.LB had selected a dress to wear with her cap and gown. The lawsuit said LB had worn dresses to classes and extracurricular events throughout high school, including to a prom last year, and she should not face discriminatory treatment during graduation.King told LB’s mother that the teenager could not participate in the graduation ceremony unless LB wears “pants, socks, and shoes, like a boy”, according to the lawsuit.Clark wrote in court papers on Friday that taking part in a graduation ceremony is voluntary and not a constitutionally protected right for any student.Mississippi is among the US states that have pursued a barrage of restrictions pertaining to transgender youth medical care, sports participation and bathroom use. Earlier this year, the state’s conservative governor, Tate Reeves, signed into law a legislative bill which prohibits health professionals from providing both hormone treatments and surgical procedures to transgender minors.Such gender-affirming care is medically necessary and potentially lifesaving for children and adults diagnosed with gender dysphoria.At the time the bill was signed, Reeves said the law indicated to children they are “beautiful the way they are” and do not need to “take drugs and cut themselves up with expensive surgeries in order to find freedom from depression”. More

About 45 minutes into his New Hampshire town hall, Tim Scott said he needed to reveal a secret to the Republican voters who had gathered to hear from the presidential hopeful.“Listen, this might surprise some of y’all,” Scott told attendees with subtle laughter in his voice. He paused briefly: “I’m Black.”The line was met with loud laughter from the mostly white crowd, and it underscored the unique role that Scott faces in the Republican presidential primary ahead of the 2024 election. The 57-year-old senator of South Carolina and erstwhile Donald Trump ally, who filed paperwork on Friday to declare his presidential candidacy ahead of a formal launch event on Monday, hopes to become the first Black politician to win his party’s nomination and go on to defeat Joe Biden in the general election next November.Scott’s chances of success appear slim, as Trump continues to dominate in national polls thanks to the enduring loyalty of many Republican primary voters. But Scott believes his sunny vision for America’s future can sway a significant number of Republicans who are ready for “new leadership” in the party.To do that, Scott will need to take on Trump and convince fellow Republicans to abandon the vengeful worldview embraced by the former president in favor of a more positive message about the direction of the country. Relying on Reaganesque optimism about the brighter days ahead, Scott has called for a new era of American policy based on “personal responsibility”, deeply rooted in rightwing principles like restricting abortion access and rigorously enforcing border security.But it remains unclear whether enough Republicans are interested in dumping Trump.“You cannot lean into ‘the best days ahead of you’ until you deal with the cancer inside of you at the moment,” said Michael Steele, a former chair of the Republican National Committee and a vocal Trump critic. “The way you do that is to take down the guy who’s perpetuating that narrative.”‘From cotton to Congress’As he spoke to the voters at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire earlier this month, Scott pointed to his own family history as an example of America’s promise. He was raised by a single, working mother, and his grandfather dropped out of school in the third grade to pick cotton on a South Carolina farm.That grandfather lived long enough to see his grandson win a seat in the US House of Representatives, where Scott served one term before being appointed to the Senate in 2013. Scott is currently the only Black Republican serving in the Senate.“One of the reasons why we say in my family ‘from cotton to Congress in one lifetime’ is because my grandfather had a stubborn faith,” Scott told the New Hampshire voters. “He had faith in God. He had faith in the American people, but he also had faith in the future of this great nation.”Echoing his message from 2021, when he delivered the Republican response to Biden’s first presidential speech to a joint session of Congress, Scott accused Democrats of turning Americans against each other by bringing attention to systemic oppression.“When I talk to my friends on the other side of the aisle, particularly the ones who disagree with me vehemently, the one thing I can tell them is that the proof of my life disproves your lies,” Scott said at the town hall. “America is a beautiful country. We are the land of opportunity and not the land of oppression.”Scott went on to list the benefits of his “opportunity zones” policy, an initiative aimed at directing private investment into America’s economically disadvantaged communities. He encouraged Americans to “take responsibility for yourself” and reject “today’s cultural victimhood”, alluding to the “pull yourself up by your bootstraps” narrative that has been criticized on the left as unrealistic and racist.“My mentor literally taught me that if you take responsibility for yourself, that in that mirror, you see the problem. But in the same mirror, you find the promise,” Scott said at the town hall.Scott’s upbeat tone cast quite a contrast from Trump, whose presidential campaign thus far has focused on promising “retribution” to his political enemies if he wins the White House next year.“Everything about Tim Scott is out of the ordinary. He is the exact opposite of Donald Trump, and that’s why he is so intriguing,” said the Republican pollster Frank Luntz. “He is as nice and kind-hearted as Trump is tough and critical.”Scott’s message was greeted like a breath of fresh air from attendees of his town hall, some of whom said they are looking for the Republican party to break free from Trump’s influence and move in a new direction.“I really liked the guy. I thought he was very good and forthcoming, and he’s got a great message,” Bruce Nest, a 70-year-old anti-Trump voter from Nashua, said after Scott’s town hall.Though Scott’s tone is markedly different from Trump’s, the two politicians’ platforms have far more in common. Like Trump, Scott has called for a tougher stance against China and emphasized the importance of preventing migrants from entering the US. On abortion, which will take center stage in the 2024 election because of the supreme court’s decision last year to overturn Roe v Wade, Scott has vowed to sign “the most conservative, pro-life legislation” that could pass Congress. But Scott has refused to specify his preferred timeframe for a potential federal abortion ban.In the Republican primary, the senator’s tone and temperament alone may be enough to sway some voters.Nest’s wife, Debra, 70, argued it was “time to give someone else a chance” to lead the Republican party. “We want to pass the baton,” she said. “I’m looking for someone to pass the baton to.”But Trump’s enduring popularity left some town hall attendees skeptical.“I think he has a really good backstory, and I think he will connect to a lot of different ethnicities and different cultures of America,” said Robert Plourde, a 59-year-old voter from Loudon. “It remains to be seen whether he has enough traction with the Republican party that really doesn’t know him, I think, nationally right now.”Stuck at 1%When Scott formally launches his campaign on Monday, he will join a growing Republican primary field where candidates not named Trump have struggled to break through. The most recent Morning Consult poll showed Scott has drawn the support of just 1% of Republican primary voters across the country.There is some evidence to suggest that a crucial share of Republican voters are looking to move on from Trump. One AP/NORC poll taken last month found that nearly half of Republicans do not want Trump to seek re-election, but the same survey showed Trump still enjoys a favorability rating of 68% among Republicans.Even in Scott’s home state of South Carolina, a Winthrop University survey taken last month found that 7% of Republicans supported the senator, putting him in fourth place. The former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, who served as South Carolina’s governor and appointed Scott to the Senate, outpaced him by 11 points while Trump and Florida governor Ron DeSantis led in the poll.Scott’s advisers point out that the Iowa caucuses are still nine months away. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, senior campaign officials noted Scott’s campaign committee has nearly $22m in cash on hand. Scott has also received hefty financial support from some Republican megadonors; last year, the tech billionaire and fellow school choice proponent Larry Ellison poured $15m into a Super Pac aligned with the senator.Perhaps Scott’s greatest challenge at this early stage will be distinguishing himself from the other Republican presidential candidates. Scott has not made much of an effort thus far to distance himself from Trump on matters of policy, even as he has refused to commit to supporting the former president in the election if he wins the nomination.Appearing on the Fox News host Sean Hannity’s show in February, Scott was asked what differences there were between his campaign platform and Trump’s.“Probably not very many at all,” Scott replied. “I’m so thankful that we had President Trump in office. Frankly, the policies that we were able to pass from 2017 to 2020 were monumental.”Scott’s embrace of his opponent’s record has intensified speculation that this White House bid is simply a ploy to bolster his chances of becoming Trump’s running mate, although the senator has dismissed those suggestions.“If you’re going to go for it, go for it all,” Scott told reporters last month. “Period.”With Trump maintaining his massive lead in national polls, Steele is skeptical that Scott or any other Republican candidate can seriously fight for the nomination without directly confronting the former president.“Unless your name is Donald Trump, you’re running for vice-president,” Steele said. “Until shown otherwise, that they’re willing to take this man down and willing to really press the point that he is wholly incompetent and too politically damaged to be the nominee of the party again, everybody’s running for something other than the current presidential race.”‘I know it because I’ve lived it’As Scott continues to insist that he is truly running to win the Republican nomination, his team has pointed to two factors that could help him: his personal story and his evangelical faith. In a video released last month, Scott emphasized those points.“I was raised by a single mother in poverty. The spoons in our apartment were plastic, not silver,” Scott said in the video. “But we had faith. We put in the work and we had an unwavering belief that we too could live the American dream. I know America is the land of opportunity, not a land of oppression. I know it because I’ve lived it.”Scott’s video was filmed at Fort Sumter, the South Carolina military site where the civil war began in 1861, which Scott said represented America’s strength and resilience. That message of unity may not resonate with all Republican primary voters; after all, when a group of Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol on 6 January 2021, some of them entered the building waving Confederate flags.“That storyline doesn’t land the same way it used to because a lot of the folks that you’re going to be talking to don’t necessarily look at that as a positive,” Steele said. “They see that as part of the problem, which is why white nationalism has reared its ugly head the way it has.”Scott’s efforts to connect with white evangelical voters, who make up a substantial portion of the Republican primary electorate, will also likely encounter roadblocks. Evangelical voters represent a core piece of Trump’s base, and they have shown hesitation in abandoning the former president. According to data compiled by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) in March, 62% of white evangelicals held favorable views of Trump.“I think it’s going to be pretty heavy lifting for Senator Tim Scott, or really any other candidate aside from Donald Trump, to gain a lot of loyalty from white evangelical voters,” said Melissa Deckman, the chief executive of PRRI.Scott’s fumbled answers on abortion policy could add to his troubles with that cohort. He remains staunchly anti-abortion, but he has bristled when reporters try to nail down his specific views on enacting a nationwide ban. When asked about his preferred cut-off point for banning the procedure, Scott told NBC News last month: “I’m not going to talk about six or five or seven or 10 [weeks].”“For the [Republican] base, the positions on abortion really matter,” Deckman said. “And when you have someone like Tim Scott or Nikki Haley sort of waffling on that issue, not trying to pin down the specifics of where they stand, I think it’s going to be harder for them to pull people away from Donald Trump in the primary.”That task is already proving difficult for Scott. On Monday, he will start finding out if it is, in fact, impossible. More

The US is careening towards a debt crisis the likes of which we haven’t seen since 2011 when Barack Obama faced off against the Tea Party. No one knows for sure if the federal government is going to default on its debt by the end of this month. But if Democrats and Republicans can’t agree on a compromise, it will have an enormous impact on small businesses around the country.Some 65% of small businesses believe they would be negatively affected by a default, according to a recent report from Goldman Sachs. This is very bad news. Small businesses accounted for 45% of all private-sector jobs in the first quarter of 2022.The first small businesses that will be affected will be those that contract directly with the federal government. Tens of thousands of small businesses received more than $154bn in federal contracts in the fiscal year 2021 – about 27% of all government contract spending that year. And this doesn’t include the small businesses that indirectly received funding from larger construction and other firms that get government money and sub-contract out work to them. If Janet Yellen is forced to prioritize interest and debt payments above all else, then these federal contracts would be suspended and the negative cash flow impact on these small firms would be substantial. Let’s remember: almost half of small businesses have less than three months of cash on hand.Then there are the small businesses that service government properties. A report from the Cato Institute estimates that the federal government owns or leases more than 350,000 buildings and properties around the country. These facilities are a critical revenue source for countless small firms that perform construction, maintenance, security, cleaning, electrical, landscaping and other kinds of services, all which would be potentially interrupted. The employees that go to these buildings every day rely on neighboring businesses for their lunches, dry cleaning, yoga, happy hours and other products and services. If ordered to stay home, these businesses – already reeling from the number of employees now working remotely – would suffer a significant blow.Then there are government functions. Individuals and small business owners rely on many areas of the government for services. They’re applying for passports, questioning the IRS, waiting on regulatory approval and loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration. These and many other critical government services could be suspended if funding is re-directed.These are all immediate effects of what would happen if the government must avoid a loan default. The longer-term effects are even more devastating. If the situation persists credit and financial markets will be volatile and banks will be forced to limit financing to only the most secure (and usually) largest of their customers, which means many small businesses seeking loans will either have to wait or be denied. The Goldman Sachs study found that 77% of small business owners they surveyed were already concerned about their ability to get loans.According to the White House, a default lasting more than three months would cause a significant recession with as many as 8 million people losing their jobs. The stock market – where small business owners park a significant amount of their retirement savings and collateral – could collapse.All of this could not come at a worse time for small businesses. Optimism among business owners – as determined monthly by the National Federation of Independent Businesses – is already at a 10-year low. Bankruptcies are ominously on the rise too, with one research firm reporting a 20% increase in filings from a year ago. An extended shutdown would make these numbers much worse.If you’re a small business owner, what can you do?It sounds obvious but it’s a fact that my very best clients are always thinking ahead. So the first thing you should be doing is preparing. A federal default or shutdown may not happen at all, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be ready for such an event by the end of this month.That means hoarding cash, confirming your credit availability (including credit cards) and communicating with your customers, suppliers, employees and partners. No one should be surprised by your actions – like delaying payments – if a shutdown occurs. They should know that this is something you may be forced to do and they should know this well in advance. The more you tell them of your plans the better they can also plan and the more appreciative they will be.Also, and this is probably no consolation for businesses right now, is to take away an important lesson: diversity is important. If your business relies too much on any one customer (ie the federal government) then once this problem is behind us you should be making it a priority to diversify your customer base. Too much dependence on one source of revenue is too big a risk and even the federal government can’t be relied on to pay its bills on time – or at all.The silver lining in this dangerous, avoidable situation is that it would take time for things to get really, really bad. Although Yellen warns of a default by the end of May, she does have options for at least funding major parts of the government. And quarterly tax payments – expected by mid-June – could help stave off disaster for a while longer. But none of this should stop a business owner from thinking about the consequences now and preparing for this event. Even if we escape this time, given the acrimonious environment in Washington, we shouldn’t be surprised if something like this doesn’t occur again – and soon. More

After repeated failed attempts to pass stricter bans, Republicans in some US states are changing their messaging, touting “common sense” abortion laws presented as more lenient than outright bans, but that are more restrictive than they seem when looked at in detail.Nebraska’s state legislature passed a 12-week ban on Friday, days after another 12-week ban cleared its final hurdle in North Carolina.Meanwhile, South Carolina’s senate will again weigh a six-week abortion ban that the legislature has repeatedly tried and failed to pass in previous weeks.In Nebraska, Republican lawmakers praised the ban as a compromise, but their Democratic colleagues did not see it that way. “This place is morally bankrupt,” said the Omaha state senator Machaela Cavanaugh. “I’m looking forward to 2025 when I no longer have to serve with many of you.” Cavanaugh filibustered for hundreds of hours in recent months in an attempt to stop the bill passed on Friday, an anti-trans measure to which the abortion ban was attached.Two weeks ago, a six-week ban was tanked in Nebraska, partly by one of its original co-sponsors – the Republican state senator Merve Riepe – who had come to think of it as too extreme, as many women do not yet realize they are pregnant at six weeks. Ahead of the earlier vote, which Riepe abstained from, he passed around a news article warning that abortion was hurting the Republican party, according to the Washington Post. Polling has consistently found that strong majorities of Americans oppose abortion bans.The Nebraska ban includes no exceptions for fetal anomalies or pregnancies incompatible with life and threatens doctors with jail time.Republicans in Nebraska’s technically non-partisan legislature (where each lawmaker nonetheless identifies either as Republican or Democrat) have painted the bill as a huge step down from the six-week ban.Nebraskans crowded the statehouse as the bill progressed on Wednesday, drowning out the lively debate on the house floor with angry chants and foot stomping. By the end of the night, lawmakers were forced to seek refuge, fleeing the capitol rotunda through a back tunnel flanked by police escorts in a bid to avoid angry protesters.With the legislative session about to end, lawmakers craftily advanced the ban by attaching it to a measure limiting gender-affirming care to transgender people.“You are willing to drive this state into the ground. You look ridiculous,” Cavanaugh, said on Wednesday, adding: “Women will die, children are dying, and you are responsible.”In North Carolina, the 12-week ban was passed on Wednesday, when Republican politicians overrode the Democratic governor’s veto. The fresh ban brings the current limit down from 20 weeks.Republicans described the bill as “pro-life plan, not an abortion ban”, as they passed it amid protestors chanting “shame” from inside the state legislature. But the bill will make it incredibly difficult to obtain an abortion in North Carolina, a state that has become somewhat of a safe haven for abortion in the increasingly restrictive Bible belt.Most notably, the bill limits the use of medication abortion – the most common US method of abortion – to 10 weeks of pregnancy, and requires three in-person visits to get pills or any other form of the procedure. Those restrictions will make it harder to get an abortion for those with uncompromising work schedules, those who can’t afford to pay for childcare and those traveling from out of state.Further worsening the effect of abortion bans on low-income people and women of color, it will also make people seeking abortions wait 72 hours between visits. It will require women to watch ultrasounds before they have an abortion, and to be warned about unfounded medical side-effects of abortion before having one.Strict licensing requirements written into the bill could also shutter a number of the state’s remaining 14 clinics, and oblige abortion providers to report details on people who have sought an abortion to the state department of health and human services.And in South Carolina on Wednesday, a six-week abortion ban finally progressed to the senate, after weeks of Republicans repeatedly trying and failing to move it forward. But even if it passes, it must be upheld by the state supreme court, which blocked a similar six-week ban earlier this year. (The composition of that supreme court has since changed – the judge who wrote the decision striking down the ban has been replaced by judge who GOP lawmakers hope will overturn it.) Meanwhile, Republican and Democratic women have repeatedly united in a filibuster to stop the bill from passing. They have said they plan to do so again.Some 900 amendments were affixed to the legislation – many by Democrats hoping to delay the passage of the bill. Some of those amendments included making the state liable for funeral costs of people who die after being denied an abortion, and making men liable for child support and the costs of half of all pregnancy expenses, starting from fertilization. More