US Politics

The future of US elections hinges on an outlandish case before the supreme courtMoira DoneganThe ‘independent state legislature’ theory has rarely been put forward, and then only by blatant partisans acting in bad faith Going into the oral arguments for Moore v Harper on Wednesday, it was easy to forget just how radical and strange it was that the US supreme court was hearing the case in the first place.Moore v Harper is a challenge by North Carolina’s Republican-controlled state legislature to a decision by the state’s Democratic-controlled supreme court, which threw out what the court called an excessively gerrymandered congressional district map that the legislature put forward, saying the map violated a state constitutional law guaranteeing free elections. Unhappy, the legislature adopted what used to be a fringe theory: that state courts don’t have much jurisdiction over election matters at all.The US supreme court is poised to strike another blow against gay rights | Moira DoneganRead moreThis used to be the kind of claim that a different supreme court would never dignify by granting certiorari. The “independent state legislature” theory has been put forward only a handful of times over the past hundred years, and even then, only by blatant partisans acting in transparent bad faith.But “blatant partisans acting in transparent bad faith” is now a decent description of the supreme court, so the meritless case is being heard this term. And the North Carolina legislature’s gambit even has a shot of succeeding. When oral arguments began on Wednesday morning, the theory advanced by the legislature had garnered public expressions of support by four of the nine sitting justices – Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Clarence Thomas. As happens so frequently with this court, a theory that was once confined to the radical rightwing fringe has been ushered into doctrinal legitimacy by judges eager to secure conservative outcomes.The independent state legislature theory posits that, when it comes to determining how to conduct federal elections, state legislatures have virtually no limits on their authority and no other government bodies that can check them. State constitutions can’t limit how legislatures order elections, according to this theory, and neither can state courts.It’s an odd conception of state legislatures, picturing their power over elections as special and different, not subject to the ordinary checks and balances of executive actions and judicial review. Under it, all state constitutional provisions that protect voting rights, ensure equal protection of the law and guarantee due process would be moot, as far as elections go; legislatures would not be bound by them.And it’s a vision of state legislative authority in elections that the supreme court has rejected as recently as 2015: in Arizona State Legislature v Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, the court ruled that voters could use a ballot initiative to create an independent commission to draw new congressional districts. The North Carolina legislature, meanwhile, has itself asked the state supreme court to weigh in on certain election administration questions, making their own claim that that court has no authority on such issues seem odd. If it were adopted by the federal supreme court, the independent state legislature theory would call a mulligan on all of this, disposing of the regular relationship between state legislatures and state courts along with about 100 years’ worth of precedent.The most terrifying case of all is about to be heard by the US supreme court | Steven DonzigerRead moreApplied to appointing electors every four years for the presidential election, this was the theory that backed the election subversion plot cooked up by Trump adviser and disgraced law professor John Eastman: it was the theory that if a state legislature didn’t like the electors dictated to them by the voters of their states, they could simply advance another slate of electors instead.The case before the supreme court now applies the theory to federal congressional elections. It posits that if a state legislature wants to draw a dramatically gerrymandered congressional map – the kind that dilutes the value of votes, erodes the competitiveness of elections and forecloses the ability of the people to express their will through the political process – then it can. State legislators have to abide by the rule of law, according to the theory – except for when they’re determining the rules by which they get to remain in power.Moore v Harper has come to be seen as an existential threat to functioning democracy in America, in no small part because, in the hands of insurrectionists like Eastman, the tenets of the independent state legislature theory have already become fodder for an attempted coup. But it seems that what might decide the fate of the theory is not its threat to the integrity of implementation but practical matters of applicability.At oral arguments on Wednesday, the liberal justices hammered lawyers for North Carolina’s legislature about the unaccountable extra-constitutionality of the scheme. Even the arch-conservative Samuel Alito seemed less than enthused, though there’s no doubt he will support the theory when it’s time to issue opinions. But as in most cases this court hears, those votes were never really in play: Alito will vote for whatever seems favorable to the Republican party; Gorsuch seemed downright excited about the theory at oral arguments; and Thomas’s wife, Ginni Thomas, lobbied for the theory in the aftermath of the 2020 election.Meanwhile, Chief Justice Roberts has been publicly skeptical of the theory, and didn’t give much indication at oral argument that he had changed his mind. Brett Kavanaugh, ever eager to grasp at some semblance of moderation and respectability that might make the public forget that there are multiple credible accusations of sexual assault against him, seems eager to split the baby; he’s indicated in the past that he would prefer a smaller nullification of state judicial review than what the North Carolina legislature is asking for. Theirs are not the votes that matter, in the end. The vote that matters is Amy Coney Barrett’s.The January 6 committee has its sights on Ginni Thomas. She should be worried | Kimberly WehleRead moreAnd so it was exceptionally good news for the country that the Trump appointee appeared skeptical of the petitioner’s argument on Wednesday. The theory, it was pointed out, would create chaos in the federal courts, delegating huge numbers of murky elections disputes to the federal judiciary as state courts are stripped of jurisdiction. The North Carolina legislature’s attorneys tried to make an obscure distinction between “substantive” elections questions, which state courts would not be able to rule on, and “procedural” questions, which they would; Barrett wasn’t buying it, correctly pointing out that that very distinction was likely to be disputed.The theory would create different rules for state and federal elections, fomenting chaos that would enable those with the worst motives to serve their own interests, instead of the country’s. Hopefully, that prospect won’t appeal to Barrett. But the chaos was always precisely the point.
Moira Donegan is a Guardian US columnist
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Trump lawyers find two more classified documents at Florida storage unitDiscovery appears to confirm DoJ’s suspicions that former president possessed additional government records, sources say Donald Trump’s lawyers found at least two more documents bearing classification markings inside boxes at a storage unit in Florida when they searched through items that were brought from the White House at the end of his administration, one source familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.The new discovery could exacerbate the former president’s legal exposure after the FBI seized 103 documents marked classified at his Mar-a-Lago resort in August as part of the justice department’s criminal investigation into the possible unauthorized retention of national security information and obstruction of justice.The presence of documents marked classified in a second location beyond Mar-a-Lago, earlier reported by the Washington Post, appears to confirm the justice department’s suspicions, communicated to Trump’s lawyers in October, that Trump possessed additional government records.Trump’s lawyers found the documents after the former president retained an outside firm to search four locations after a federal judge ordered his legal team to conduct a more thorough search to make sure all documents marked classified had been returned to the government.The outside firm ended up searching a number of Trump’s properties, according to another source, including Trump Tower in New York, Trump Bedminster golf club in New Jersey, the Mar-a-Lago resort and the external storage unit in West Palm Beach, Florida, which has been understood to have been controlled by a federal agency.According to emails released by the General Services Administration, a government agency that assists in presidential transitions, Trump used a storage facility in West Palm Beach to hold some materials that were packed up from the White House and had been temporarily held in Virginia.That storage facility was used to hold at least three pallets of boxes that had been packed up by Trump White House staffers and the GSA initially transported to an office space in Virginia before sending them to Florida in September 2021, the emails show.The contents of the boxes in the pallets do not appear to have ever been catalogued, the second source said. It was not clear whether the storage facility referenced in the emails was the same storage unit where the new documents were found – but it was the place from where Trump’s lawyers sent two dozen boxes to the National Archives earlier this year.The justice department declined to comment. A Trump spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Trump’s lawyers were ordered in recent weeks to conduct a more thorough search of items in the former president’s possession by Beryl Howell, the chief US district court judge for the District of Columbia, in a sealed order issued as part of a closed-door court battle.The order capped a weeks-long process that started after the justice department expressed concern that Trump still had additional documents marked classified in his possession, potentially at other properties, after the FBI seized thousands of materials at Mar-a-Lago on 8 August.Trump was served with a grand jury subpoena in May demanding the return of all government records – bearing classification markings or otherwise – in the possession of the “45 Office”, to which his lawyers responded by turning over a double-taped folder containing responsive documents.The double-taped folder contained documents found by Trump attorney Evan Corcoran in a basement storage room at Mar-a-Lago, the second source told the Guardian, and got another Trump attorney Christina Bobb to sign a caveated attestation certifying compliance with the subpoena.But in the following months, the justice department developed evidence that other sensitive materials remained at Mar-a-Lago, and the FBI retrieved 103 documents marked classified in Trump’s office and in the basement storage room, according to the unsealed search warrant affidavit.The justice department then developed suspicions that Trump potentially was in possession of still more government records he should no longer have access to, and eventually asked Howell to intervene and order a second search of Trump’s belongings, the second source said.Former Florida solicitor general Christopher Kise, who had by then been added to Trump’s legal team, had suggested retaining an outside firm to conduct another search even before the court order, though that idea was initially rejected by some of the more bullish Trump lawyers on the team.But when the court order necessitated a more thorough search, Trump engaged the outside firm. The FBI is understood to have been invited to observe the search of at least one of the properties, but declined the offer, as is typical for searches not done by law enforcement, the source said.TopicsDonald TrumpFloridaFBIUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

Attorneys for Donald Trump discovered two classified items among materials retrieved from a Florida storage unit rented for the former president, the Washington Post reports.Trump hired an outside firm to search his properties for any classified items, in order to comply with a federal grand jury subpoena issued in May. The former president is under investigation for unlawfully retaining secret material after leaving the White House last year, which led to the FBI’s search of his Mar-a-Lago property in August.Besides the storage unit in West Palm Beach, Florida housing materials that had been moved from a northern Virginia office after his presidency, the outside firm also searched Trump-owned golf course in New Jersey and Trump Tower in New York.Here’s more from the Post’s report:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}The ultimate significance of the classified material in the storage unit is not immediately clear, but its presence there indicates Mar-a-Lago was not the only place where Trump kept classified material. It also provides further evidence that Trump and his team did not fully comply with a May grand jury subpoena that sought all documents marked classified still in possession of the post-presidential office.
In addition to the storage unit, the team hired an outside firm to carry out the search of his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., and, more recently, Trump Tower in New York, according to people familiar with the matter. The outside team also searched at least one other property.
The team also offered the FBI the opportunity to observe the search, but the offer was declined, the people said. It would be unusual for federal agents to monitor a search of someone’s property conducted by anyone other than another law enforcement agency.
Trump’s lawyers have told the Justice Department that the outside team did not turn up any new classified information during their search of Bedminster and Trump Tower, according to people familiar with the process, and have said they utilized a firm that had expertise in searching for documents.Classified material keeps turning up at Donald Trump’s properties, as the former president faces heat from a federal investigation into whether he unlawfully held on to government secrets after leaving the White House. Meanwhile, Democrats were relishing Raphael Warnock’s victory in Georgia’s Senate race, capping a historic midterm election in which they stemmed their losses in the House and managed to get all of their senators re-elected.Here’s a look back at what happened today:
The Congressional Black Caucus wants lawmakers to pass a long-stalled voting rights measure before the end of the year as Democrats try to make the most of their finals weeks controlling the House and Senate.
Sean Spicer, a former press secretary in Trump’s White House, is being roasted for mistaking today for the anniversary of D-day – when it is, in fact, the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor.
The supreme court sounds skeptical of making a ruling in favor of Republican-backed state legislatures that could have a major impact on voting rights.
Second gentleman Doug Emhoff spoke out forcefully against antisemitism, warning of “an epidemic of hate facing our country”.
Republicans were playing the blame game after their poor midterm showing.
But what does Raphael Warnock think of the Trump question?CNN caught up with the newly re-elected Democratic senator to ask him whether he thought the former president made a difference in his race. Here’s what he had to say:Asked how much he benefited from Trump’s involvement in selecting his foe, Raphael Warnock told me: “I think the people of Georgia deserve a great deal of credit for seeing the differences between me and my opponent. I look forward to working on their behalf the next six years.”— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 7, 2022
In a speech today, second gentleman Doug Emhoff spoke out against antisemitism, warning that there’s “an epidemic of hate facing our country”:.@SecondGentleman: “There’s no both-sides-ism on this one. There’s only one side…ALL OF US must be against antisemitism.” pic.twitter.com/V9SKEOiS53— Herbie Ziskend (@HerbieZiskend46) December 7, 2022
Emhoff is the husband of Kamala Harris and the first Jewish spouse of a vice president. His speech came after Donald Trump sparked outrage by meeting with Nick Fuentes, a noted antisemite.Well this is awkward.The below video is of Indiana’s Republican senator Mike Braun decrying the quality of the party’s candidates in the midterms. Behind him stands Rick Scott, another senator who is chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee – which was tasked with retaking control of the chamber. He did not succeed:Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) blasts Republican strategy after Herschel Walker’s loss, with NRSC Chairman Rick Scott (R-FL) standing right behind him:“Candidate quality does count … We are basically for nothing … and then say, ‘Well, maybe we’ll tell you after we’re elected.’” pic.twitter.com/pZ04zE3e4W— The Recount (@therecount) December 7, 2022
The Congressional Black Caucus’ last-minute push to get voting rights legislation passed may already be making waves.The lawmakers want the long-delayed bill attached to a year-end Pentagon funding proposal, and the House was this afternoon expected to vote on the rules for debate of the legislation. That vote has now been postponed:The House is in recess subject to the call of the Chair.— House Press Gallery (@HouseDailyPress) December 7, 2022
“Members are advised that further information will be provided later today,” the office of Democratic majority leader Steny Hoyer said.In other Mar-a-Lago shenanigans, ABC News reports that Liz Crokin, a well-known promoter of the QAnon and “pizzagate” conspiracy theories, turned up at an event at Donald Trump’s south Florida property.Crokin was there to attend a documentary on sex trafficking, which ABC says is a major subject of concern for QAnon adherents. She managed to snag a photo with the former president, who is under fire for his recent dinner with rapper Ye and far-right activist Nick Fuentes, both of whom have made antisemitic remarks.Here’s more from ABC’s report:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Videos and photos posted to social media appear to show Liz Crokin, a prominent promoter of QAnon and pro-Trump conspiracies theories, speaking at an event at Mar-a-Lago and later posing for photos with Trump. In one photo, the duo make a “thumbs up” sign together.
According to social media posts, the event was billed as a fundraiser in support of a “documentary” on sex trafficking — one of the pillars of the QAnon conspiracy theory. The website for the film, which includes multiple falsehoods and claims of mass sex-trafficking in Hollywood, boasts that it is “Banned by YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and PayPal.”
Mar-a-Lago often hosts events for outside groups.
“You are incredible people, you are doing unbelievable work, and we just appreciate you being here and we hope you’re going to be back,” Trump said in remarks to the crowd, according to a video of his speech.
A representative for the Trump campaign did not respond to ABC News’ request for comment.With Congress in the midst of a flurry of bill-passing before the year ends and newly elected lawmakers take their seats, Punchbowl News reports that the Congressional Black Caucus is making a last-ditch attempt to get a major voting rights bill passed.The John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act has been stalled since its August 2021 passaged in the House, after it failed to get enough support to make it through the Senate. Punchbowl reports that the caucus representing African-American lawmakers in both chambers wants the legislation attached to the annual defense spending bill, which is considered a priority for both Democratic and Republican lawmakers.A key test of whether their strategy will go anywhere may come this afternoon, when the House is set to vote on the rules for debate of the spending bill, according to Punchbowl.CNN has been going around the Capitol, polling Republicans senators on whether they think Donald Trump is to blame for their candidates’ weak showing during the midterms.While not an out-and-out break with the most recent White House occupant from their party, several acknowledged that Trump wasn’t much help in last month’s election. Here’s John Thune, the number-two Senate Republican:Thune added: “The Dems were in many cases able to turn it into a choice election because of Trump’s presence out there – so was he a factor? I don’t think there’s any question about that.”— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 7, 2022
Pat Toomey is the retiring senator from Pennsylvania, who is being replaced by Democrat John Fetterman in a major loss for the GOP:Pat Toomey: “It’s just one more data point in an overwhelming body of data that the Trump obsession is very bad for Republicans but normal Republicans are doing extremely well”Graham to me: “I think we’re losing close elections, not because of Donald Trump,” citing D fundraising— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 7, 2022
Lindsey Graham is one of Trump’s biggest allies in Congress’s upper chamber. Here’s what he had to say:Lindsey Graham to me on Trump: “I think what he’s gonna have to do is establish to Republicans he can win in 2024. He’s still very popular in the party. People appreciate his presidency. They appreciate his fighting spirit. But there’s beginning to be a sense, ‘Can he win?’”— Manu Raju (@mkraju) December 7, 2022
Attorneys for Donald Trump discovered two classified items among materials retrieved from a Florida storage unit rented for the former president, the Washington Post reports.Trump hired an outside firm to search his properties for any classified items, in order to comply with a federal grand jury subpoena issued in May. The former president is under investigation for unlawfully retaining secret material after leaving the White House last year, which led to the FBI’s search of his Mar-a-Lago property in August.Besides the storage unit in West Palm Beach, Florida housing materials that had been moved from a northern Virginia office after his presidency, the outside firm also searched Trump-owned golf course in New Jersey and Trump Tower in New York.Here’s more from the Post’s report:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}The ultimate significance of the classified material in the storage unit is not immediately clear, but its presence there indicates Mar-a-Lago was not the only place where Trump kept classified material. It also provides further evidence that Trump and his team did not fully comply with a May grand jury subpoena that sought all documents marked classified still in possession of the post-presidential office.
In addition to the storage unit, the team hired an outside firm to carry out the search of his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., and, more recently, Trump Tower in New York, according to people familiar with the matter. The outside team also searched at least one other property.
The team also offered the FBI the opportunity to observe the search, but the offer was declined, the people said. It would be unusual for federal agents to monitor a search of someone’s property conducted by anyone other than another law enforcement agency.
Trump’s lawyers have told the Justice Department that the outside team did not turn up any new classified information during their search of Bedminster and Trump Tower, according to people familiar with the process, and have said they utilized a firm that had expertise in searching for documents.Democrats are relishing Raphael Warnock’s victory in Georgia’s Senate race, which caps a historic midterm election where they stemmed their losses in the House and managed to get all of their senators re-elected. The GOP’s underwhelming showing has several Republicans pointing their fingers at Donald Trump, saying candidates he’d handpicked for the election underperformed.Here’s a look back at what has happened so far today:
Trump has hired an outside firm to look for classified documents at two of his properties to comply with a grand jury subpoena, the Washington Post reports.
Sean Spicer, a former press secretary in Trump’s White House, is being roasted for mistaking today for the anniversary of D-day – when it is in fact the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor.
The supreme court sounds skeptical of making a ruling in favor of Republican-backed state legislatures that could have a major impact on voting rights.
The White House has announced that Joe Biden will speak this evening, at St Mark’s Episcopal Church in Washington, host to the 10th Annual National Vigil for All Victims of Gun Violence.A White House update says the vigil is “a service of mourning and loving remembrance for all who have fallen victim to the ongoing epidemic of gun violence in America”. The 10th anniversary of the Sandy Hook elementary school shooting, in which 20 young children and six adults were killed, falls a week from today.Biden, as vice-president, saw attempts for meaningful gun reform fail, even after that massacre in Connecticut. But Chris Murphy, the Democratic senator from the north-eastern state, has campaigned for reform ever since.He is now optimistic that more will soon be done. Last week, he told the Guardian: “Ten years ago, it would have been unthinkable for a gun safety bill to pass the Senate with NRA opposition. Now, a whole bunch of Republican senators know that the NRA does not even represent gun owners any longer. And thus, they’re not paying as much attention.”More:Senator Chris Murphy: ‘victory after victory’ is coming for US gun safetyRead moreFrom Washington, the Associated Press reports that “at least six supreme court justices sound skeptical of making a broad ruling that would leave state legislatures virtually unchecked when making rules for elections for Congress and the presidency”.Here’s more on the case in hand, also from the AP:US supreme court hears case that could radically reshape electionsRead moreSean Spicer, Donald Trump’s first White House press secretary and a Harvard politics fellow, has come under fire for a tweet in which he said today, 7 December, was D-Day.Spicer wrote: “Today is Dday [sic]. It only lives in infamy if we remember and share the story of sacrifice with the next generation. #DDay.”7 December is indeed an important second world war anniversary – that of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor which brought the US into the war. It has been called many things, including, most famously and lastingly and by the then president, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, “a date which will live in infamy”.But not D-Day. That was 6 June 1944, when allied navies sent forces ashore in France, at the start of the end of the war against Nazi Germany.Pearl Harbor was primarily an attack on the US navy. According to US government figures, 2,008 members of the navy were killed, along with 218 members of the army, 109 marines and 68 civilians. Three US ships were destroyed and 16 damaged.According to his own website, Spicer “holds a master’s degree in national security and strategic studies from the US Naval War College [and] has served over 20 years in the US Navy Reserve and is currently a commander”. He specialises in public affairs.Amid a minor PR nightmare and Twitter storm, Spicer deleted his D-Day tweet and said: “Sorry. Apologies.”Undeleted, a tweet from 2021 in which Spicer showed he knew when D-Day was and was happy to use that knowledge to attack Joe Biden, writing: “Yesterday was the anniversary of #DDay – no mention of it from the president. The White House press secretary says he might get around to it.”Biden was widely attacked from the right for not formally marking D-Day last year. But as the fact-checking website Snopes put it: “While neither Biden himself nor the White House, as such, publicly commemorated the 77th anniversary of D-Day in 2021, Vice-President Kamala Harris and first lady Jill Biden both did.”Furthermore, “in his speech at Arlington National Cemetery on Memorial Day, 31 May, Biden briefly alluded to the D-Day landings, saying: ‘Here in Arlington lie heroes who gave what President Lincoln called ‘the last full measure of devotion’. They did not only die at Gettysburg or in Flanders Field or on the beaches of Normandy, but in the mountains of Afghanistan, the deserts of Iraq in the last 20 years.’” More

US supreme court hears case that could radically reshape electionsCase brought by North Carolina would give partisan state legislatures near total control over elections with no role for courts The US supreme court heard arguments on Wednesday in Moore v Harper, one of this term’s highest profile and most contentious cases which has the potential to fundamentally reshape elections for Congress and the presidency.The justices appeared to be starkly divided along predictable ideological lines as they mulled over the power of state courts to strike down congressional districts drawn by state legislatures because they violate state constitutions.The most terrifying case of all is about to be heard by the US supreme court | Steven DonzigerRead moreRepublicans from North Carolina who brought the case argue that a provision of the US constitution known as the elections clause gives state lawmakers virtually total control over the “times, places and manner” of congressional elections, including redistricting, and cuts state courts out of the process.The Republicans are advancing a concept called the “independent state legislature theory”, never before adopted by the supreme court but cited approvingly by four conservative justices.The direction of questioning at Wednesday’s hearing suggested thatthree of those conservative justices – Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas – were open to the idea of adopting the theory, despite decades of precedent from their own court dismissing it. They seemed to have the slightly more tentative backing of Brett Kavanaugh, who was part of the legal team in 2000 that assisted George W Bush through Bush v Gore, the case that in modern times put the independent state legislature theory on the map.On the other side of the argument, the three liberal-leaning justices were profoundly critical of the notion that state legislatures should be given free rein to control federal elections virtually unrestrained by state constitutions and judicial review from state courts. Questions from John Roberts suggested he might be seeking a more narrowly-drawn compromise position.Which left all eyes on Amy Coney Barrett, the third of Donald Trump’s three appointees. Potentially, she might find herself casting the decisive vote.Though it gives little clue as to which side of the fence Barrett will be standing on when the ruling comes down, she did ask several probing questions of the lawyer representing North Carolina’s Republicans. She said that those pushing for state legislatures to be freed up from oversight had a “problem” defining their terms, and she questioned whether the theory had any bearing in legal text.For their part, the liberal justices – Elena Kagan, Ketanji Brown Jackson and Sonia Sotomayor – robustly argued that incorporating the theory into constitutional law would be a threat to democracy. Elena Kagan cited three recent supreme court rulings that all counter the theory.Kagan made an impassioned speech about the potential impact of siding with North Carolina’s Republicans. “Think about consequences, because this is a theory with big consequences … This is a proposal that gets rid of the normal checks and balances on the way big governmental decisions are made in this country, at exactly the time when they are needed most.”She warned that a broad ruling could unleash state legislatures to carry out extreme forms of gerrymandering, tear up voter protections and even certify election results according to their own political interests.Moore v Harper came about after the North Carolina state supreme court struck down districts drawn by Republicans who control the legislature because they heavily favored Republicans in the highly competitive state. The court-drawn map used in last month’s elections for Congress produced a 7-7 split between Democrats and Republicans.North Carolina is among six states in recent years in which state courts have ruled that overly partisan redistricting for Congress violated their state constitutions. The others are Florida, Maryland, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.State courts have become the only legal forum for challenging partisan congressional maps since the supreme court ruled in 2019 that those lawsuits cannot be brought in federal court.In North Carolina, Republican lawmakers will not have to wait for the court’s decision to produce a new congressional map that is expected to have more Republican districts.Even as Democrats won half the state’s 14 congressional seats, Republicans seized control of the state supreme court. Two newly elected Republican justices give them a 5-2 edge that makes it more likely than not that the court would uphold a map with more Republican districts.One of the striking features about Wednesday’s legal debate was how the usual ideological positions of the two sides were turned on their heads. The conservative justices, who have often invoked states’ rights in previous rulings – not least in last year’s seminal decision to overturn abortion rights – sounded at times to be almost anti-federalist.After the US solicitor general, Elizabeth Prelogar, accused the petitioners of making an “atextual, ahistorical, and destabilizing interpretation of the elections clause”, Thomas intervened. “I must say, it seems a bit ironic that you’re on the other side of the federalism issue,” he said, apparently unaware of the irony of his own position.By contrast, lawyers speaking against the state legislature theory turned on several occasions to the historical record of the founding fathers as well as close textual analysis of the constitution – tactics normally associated with the rightwing supermajority. “Over 233 years, this court has never second-guessed a state court interpretation of its own constitution in any context,” said Neal Katyal, a lawyer representing Common Cause, an ethics-in-government group which is opposing what it claims is an attempted Republican power grab in North Carolina.TopicsUS supreme courtLaw (US)US voting rightsUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

Runoff elections tend to be races of attrition. Turnout will most likely be lower, as voters are less accustomed to turning out for off-cycle elections. Candidates, then, must try to minimize attrition among their supporters, and the one with the least erosion is most likely to win.

Such was the case in Georgia on Dec. 6, 2022. Fewer people voted for either candidate in the runoff: Sen. Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, saw the number of people who turned out to vote for him drop by about 131,000 from the November vote; Republican Herschel Walker lost closer to 200,000 voters. This would explain how Warnock was able to grow his lead in the runoff.

On turnouts and turnoffs

Overall, voter turnout in the Georgia Senate runoff election was nearly 90% of the turnout in the November general election. That’s not a huge drop-off and reflects voter interest in the outcome of a race that has been the subject of intense mobilization campaigns by both candidates in the past month.

When looking at the 10 counties with the highest proportional attrition from November to December – that is, counties where runoff turnout was only 83% to 88.1% of general election turnout – one thing stands out: They were all in metro and exurban Atlanta or north Georgia, the counties close to Tennessee and the South Carolina state line near I-85.

While some of these counties are Republican strongholds, many of them are increasingly diverse racially. Some of these counties are also rich with the college-educated white voters whom both parties covet.

Warnock earned a higher percentage of the vote in the runoff compared with November in each of these “high-attrition” counties. Walker, however, lost vote share in three of these counties.

Furthermore, in the seven high-attrition counties where both Warnock and Walker got a larger percentage of the vote than they did in November, Warnock garnered more vote share in all but the three most sparsely populated counties.

This suggests that Warnock may have won the majority of the eliminated Libertarian candidate’s votes that were up for grabs in the runoff.

There was also a nontrivial number of new runoff voters – people who voted in the runoff but not in November. We know that almost 78,000 of these new voters participated in early voting, and that this group was disproportionately voters of color – people who tend to vote Democratic.

Warnock overperformed in the most densely populated counties, too. My analysis shows that in the 10 counties that cast the most ballots in this election cycle, Warnock improved his vote share in the runoff by a range of 1 to 3.2 percentage points in each county. Walker, meanwhile, lost vote share in six of the 10 counties.

There was only one county of the top 10 – Hall County – where Walker’s increase in vote share outpaced Warnock’s increase. With the exception of Chatham County, home of Savannah, all of the vote-rich counties where Warnock gained and Walker tended to lose vote share are in metro or exurban Atlanta.

Deficiencies as a candidate

This raises the necessary but uncomfortable conversation about candidate quality. Pundits and observers had long been concerned that Walker’s deficiencies as a candidate would be a particular turnoff to suburban Republican voters, and that they might register their opposition by not voting at all. That more attrition took place in and around Atlanta suggests that there were grounds for that concern.

Walker was particularly compromised as a candidate. By standard political science measures of candidate quality – such as whether a candidate has relevant prior experience – Walker was a low-quality candidate.

His unintelligible policy pronouncements and bizarre non sequiturs about bulls and werewolves only reinforced the impression among some voters that he was not capable of handling the job of U.S. senator.

And when you compound those problems with the explosive allegations about domestic violence and pressuring girlfriends to get abortions, it looks like a small but significant sliver of likely Republican voters decided to prioritize their concerns about candidate quality over naked partisanship.

Meanwhile, Warnock has nearly two years of Senate experience and was able to draw on a modicum of incumbency advantage to help him in the contest. This was certainly reflected in his prodigious fundraising over the course of this cycle.

Yet Warnock was one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats in this midterm election cycle for a reason. Georgia Democrats may be increasing in number and voting power, but other recent elections suggest there are still more Republican than Democratic voters in the state. Other GOP nominees in the state, such as Gov. Brian Kemp, were able to coast on that numerical advantage and Joe Biden’s net negative favorability to win decisive victories in November – without runoffs.

That Walker struggled was a signal of his weaknesses as a candidate. But many of his weaknesses and his lack of experience were known going into the primaries. That should have been enough for Republican leaders to challenge Donald Trump’s insistence that Walker was the best candidate to run against Warnock.

In the future, the Republican Party might think twice about selecting a candidate based on a party leader’s whim and not experience, substance or a demonstration of electability. If there is one lesson we can take from the 2022 Georgia Senate election, it is that candidate quality matters. More

Democrats ditch Manchin’s ‘dirty deal’ after opposition from climate activistsSenator had proposed to attach energy bill to appropriations legislation but plan fails amid criticism of party leadership A last-ditch effort to force through legislation that would weaken environmental protections and fast-track energy projects has failed.Joe Manchin, the fossil fuel-friendly senator from West Virginia, had attempted to latch the controversial deregulation and permitting reforms to a must-pass defense bill – after failing to get his so-called “dirty deal” passed earlier this year.The proposal to attach his bill to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), an annual appropriations bill that will be voted on later this week, was reportedly supported by Joe Biden and House leader Nancy Pelosi.But progressive lawmakers and hundreds of climate, public health and youth groups opposed the move to pass such consequential reforms without proper scrutiny. Manchin’s legislation would weaken environmental safeguards and expedite permits to construct pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure while restricting public input and legal challenges.On Tuesday, more than 750 organizations sent a letter to the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and congressional leadership opposing what they call a “cruel and direct attack on environmental justice communities”. Attaching the “dirty deal” to the NDAA, which would have been one of Pelosi’s final acts as speaker, threatened her legacy and the party’s climate credibility, the groups said.The deal was ditched – for now at least – amid mounting criticism aimed at the Democratic leadership.How fossil fuel firms use Black leaders to ‘deceive’ their communitiesRead moreEnvironmental groups welcomed the news, but warned the fossil fuel industry would not give up.Ariel Moger, government and political affairs director at Friends of the Earth, said: “Manchin’s efforts to tie his dirty deal to any must-pass legislation he can get his hands on are undemocratic and potentially devastating for the planet. With momentum on the side of frontline communities, the fight will continue until the bill dies at the end of this Congress.”Jeff Ordower, 350.org’s North America director, said: “Senator Manchin cannot get away with last-ditch efforts to push forward his fossil fuel fast tracking bill. The industry will keep trying these secretive, last minute efforts to push forward dirty deals, so we will continue to be alert and we won’t let up the fight.”Manchin, who receives more campaign donations from the fossil fuel industry than any other lawmaker, warned of dire consequences for America’s energy security. He said: “The American people will pay the steepest price for Washington once again failing to put common sense policy ahead of toxic tribal politics. This is why the American people hate politics in Washington.”Manchin’s bill, described by environmentalists as a “fossil fuel wishlist”, was first attached as a side deal to Biden’s historic climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, but was eventually thwarted after widespread opposition from progressive Democrats and civil society groups. It included limits on legal challenges to new energy projects including the 303-mile Mountain Valley gas pipeline across the Appalachian mountains that has been stalled by concerned communities and environmental groups in West Virginia and Virginia.He and other proponents have said that fast-track permitting is needed for a rapid transition to renewables and in order to modernize the country’s outdated power transmission systems.But Jeff Merkley, the Democratic senator representing Oregon, said Manchin’s deal was a dirty one, and had nothing to do with renewables. “This [bill] will give a whole lot more impetus to fossil fuels and run over the top of ordinary people raising concerns, that’s why it’s a dirty deal. This is a real travesty in terms of legislative deliberation, and in terms of environmental justice.”On Tuesday, Rashida Tlaib, the Democratic congresswoman from Michigan, had called on her colleagues to stand up against the fossil fuel industry and the undemocratic manner in which leadership was trying to push through the bill without scrutiny. She said: “It’s outrageous enough that Congress wants to spend another $847bn on our military-industrial complex, the largest annual military budget in history; we cannot allow them to then ram through Manchin’s dirty deal in the process.”The NDAA is considered a must-pass bill because it authorizes pay increases and compensation for harmed troops, as well as establishing the following year’s personnel, arms purchasing and geopolitical policies.Environmental and climate justice groups warned Democrats that frontline communities would not forget and would hold them accountable in 2024 if the deregulation bill was pushed through.“To think that this is happening at the hands of Democrats, and their very last action of power is going to be to hurt our communities and strip our voice is really hurtful. I feel betrayed,” said Maria Lopez Nunez, deputy director of the New Jersey-based Ironbound Community Corporation and member of the White House environmental justice advisory council.“For any Democrat that’s listening, if you’re playing along to this charade, our community will call you out and we will hold you accountable.”On Wednesday, Manchin launched yet another bid to garner Republican support for his bill in the Senate, in hope of getting it through as an appendage to the NDAA. It seems likely to fail.“Nobody wants Manchin’s filthy lump of coal, no matter how many ways he tries to polish it,” said Jean Su, energy justice program director at the Center for Biological Diversity. “Speaker Pelosi and Leader Schumer need to see this dirty deal for what it is and leave it as a failed footnote in the 2022 history books.” TopicsJoe ManchinFossil fuelsDemocratsUS CongressUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

Republicans reflect and blame after Trump-backed candidate Walker losesHerschel Walker’s failure to win Georgia runoff is latest in long list of midterm misfires for extremist candidates endorsed by Trump Deflated Republicans were embarking on a period of introspection and blame on Wednesday after Herschel Walker, Donald Trump’s handpicked candidate, fell well short in his effort to capture Georgia’s Senate seat.Raphael Warnock wins Georgia runoff, bolstering Democratic Senate majorityRead moreWalker’s failure in the runoff against the incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock was the most recent of a long list of misfires in the midterm elections for extremist candidates endorsed by the former president, who announced his latest run for the White House last month.It secured Democrats a 51-49 majority in the Senate, leaving Republicans powerless to block key elements of Joe Biden’s agenda, especially judicial appointments, for at least two years.Hours after Walker delivered his concession speech in Atlanta on Tuesday night, an increasing number of prominent party members were suggesting they were ready to look for a future unshackled by Trump and his lie that his 2020 election defeat to Biden was fraudulent.John Bolton, national security adviser during Trump’s single term in office, was forthright in a tweet urging Republican colleagues to cast him aside.“The outcome in Georgia is due primarily to Trump, who cast a long shadow over this race,” he wrote.“His meddling and insistence that the 2020 election was stolen will deliver more losses. Trump remains a huge liability and the Democrats’ best asset. It’s time to disavow him and move on.”John Thune, a South Dakota Republican and Senate minority whip, also blamed his party’s flops on the Trump factor.“Was he a factor? I don’t think there’s any question about that, because a lot of the candidates that had problems in these elections were running on the 2020 election being stolen, and I don’t think independent voters were having it.”Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican seen as a close ally of the former president, did not refer to Trump directly in his own analysis, but saw blame for his party’s lackluster midterms performance in poor-quality candidates, such as Walker, focusing on Trump’s big lie.“Democrats have done a pretty good job of picking issues that motivate their base and that have wider support among the public,” Graham told Politico.“We need to be doing the same thing. I think a lot of people in the Republican party don’t see us doing it as emphatically as Democrats.”Other election-denying, Trump-backed candidates who were defeated included Kari Lake, who was seeking the governorship of Arizona; Blake Masters, who lost his race for that state’s Senate seat; and Mehmet Oz, the celebrity television doctor and conspiracy theorist who was beaten by senator-elect John Fetterman in Pennsylvania as Democrats flipped the previously Republican-held seat.The Lincoln Project, a political action committee consisting largely of disgruntled Republicans, gleefully tweeted a video clip from the rightwing Fox News network, captioned “And the runner-up is …”, showcasing 25 Trump-endorsed losers from various midterm races.Trump himself remained defiant, posting on his own Truth Social network, in all capitals, that “Our country is in big trouble. What a mess!” and without accepting any responsibility for Walker’s defeat.The question now is whether the Republican party, which has remained fiercely loyal despite his two impeachments, the 2020 election defeat and their failure to recapture control of Congress, still sees Trump as the undisputed party leader and the man to lead them into the 2024 presidential race. Many members are proposing to switch allegiance from a man mired in legal problems over the January 6 Capitol riot, his mishandling of classified documents post-presidency and efforts in Georgia to overturn Biden’s victory, to someone more appealing and without that baggage, such as Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis.Trump’s toxicity at the ballot box, especially among suburban voters, provoked grumbling even before last weekend, when Trump was condemned for hosting dinner at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida with the antisemitic rapper Kanye West and the white supremacist Nick Fuentes.Several Republicans, including the usually loyal Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, also spoke out this week when Trump demanded the “termination” of the constitution to accommodate his election lies.Mick Mulvaney, White House chief of staff in the Trump administration, pointed to the party’s mixed performance in Georgia, where the Republican governor, Brian Kemp, and senior officials were re-elected comfortably in the generally reliably red state. Trump lost Georgia to Biden in 2020, and watched Democrats take both Senate seats from Republicans he endorsed.“Trump has now lost four races in Georgia in two years. One of his own and three by proxy. Similar stories in [Arizona and Pennsylvania],” Mulvaney tweeted.“He has a swing-state problem for 2024 that is real. Again: those who win primaries, and lose general elections, are still losers.”TopicsGeorgiaUS midterm elections 2022US politicsRepublicansDemocratsnewsReuse this content More

Sean Spicer confuses Pearl Harbor anniversary with D-dayTrump’s former press secretary apologized for his error, after criticizing Biden for not acknowledging D-day last year Sean Spicer, Donald Trump’s first White House press secretary and a Harvard politics fellow, came under fire on Wednesday for a tweet in which he appeared to confuse one major second world war anniversary for another.A history of Sean Spicer’s gaffes as White House press secretaryRead moreSpicer wrote: “Today is Dday [sic]. It only lives in infamy if we remember and share the story of sacrifice with the next generation. #DDay.”7 December is indeed an important second world war anniversary – that of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, which brought the US into the war.Pearl Harbor has been called many things, including most famously “a date which will live in infamy” by the then president, Franklin Delano Roosevelt.But not D-day. That was 6 June 1944, when allied navies sent forces ashore in France, the start of the end of the war against Nazi Germany.Pearl Harbor was primarily an attack on the US navy. According to US government figures, 2,008 members of the navy were killed, along with 218 members of the army, 109 marines and 68 civilians. Nineteen ships were destroyed or damaged.According to his own website, Spicer “holds a master’s degree in national security and strategic studies from the US Naval War College [and] has served over 20 years in the US navy reserve and is currently a commander”. He specialises in public affairs.On Wednesday, amid a minor PR nightmare and Twitter storm, Spicer deleted his D-day tweet and said: “Sorry. Apologies.”Undeleted was a tweet from 2021 in which Spicer showed he knew when D-day was and was happy to use that knowledge to attack Joe Biden, writing: “Yesterday was the anniversary of #DDay – no mention of it from the president. The White House press secretary says he might get around to it.”Biden was widely attacked from the right for not formally marking D-day last year.But as the fact-checking website Snopes put it: “While neither Biden himself nor the White House, as such, publicly commemorated the 77th anniversary of D-day in 2021, Vice-President Kamala Harris and first lady Jill Biden both did.”Furthermore, “in his speech at Arlington National Cemetery on Memorial Day, 31 May, Biden briefly alluded to the D-day landings, saying: ‘Here in Arlington lie heroes who gave what President Lincoln called ‘the last full measure of devotion’. They did not only die at Gettysburg or in Flanders Fields or on the beaches of Normandy, but in the mountains of Afghanistan, the deserts of Iraq in the last 20 years’.”On Wednesday, the Associated Press said a “dwindling number” of Pearl Harbor veterans returned to Hawaii to mark the 81st anniversary of the Japanese attack.Ira Schab, 102, was on the USS Dobbin as a tuba player in the ship’s band. He remembered seeing Japanese planes flying overhead and wondering what to do.“We had no place to go and hoped they’d miss us,” he said, also describing how he fed ammunition to machine gunners on the vessel, which was not hit.Of the remembrance ceremony, Schab said: “I wouldn’t miss it because I got an awful lot of friends that are still here that are buried here. I come back out of respect for them.“Remember what they’re here for. Remember and honor those that are left. They did a hell of a job. Those who are still here, dead or alive.”
Associated Press contributed reporting
TopicsD-daySean SpicerUS politicsTrump administrationnewsReuse this content More