US Politics

Bernie Sanders to publish book outlining vision for ‘political revolution’It’s OK to Be Angry About Capitalism, out next year, will argue the world needs to ‘recognise that economic rights are human rights’ Former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders is to publish a book outlining “a vision of what would be possible if the political revolution took place”.It’s OK to Be Angry About Capitalism will be published by Penguin Random House in February 2023.The book, said the publisher, will look at what happens if “we would finally recognise that economic rights are human rights, and work to create a society that provides them”.Publishing director Thomas Penn said It’s OK to Be Angry About Capitalism was a “scorching denunciation of a system that is manifestly failing the vast majority of people along with the planet itself”.“But there is, he says, another way: if we are prepared to call out uber-capitalism for what it is, together we can bring about transformational change,” Penn added. “Humane, clear-eyed and – yes – angry, this is a vital book for our times and for our future. We are thrilled to be publishing it.”It’s OK to Be Angry About Capitalism has editorial contributions from John Nichols, an award-winning progressive author and journalist who works as a national affairs correspondent for the Nation magazine.‘They haven’t tried’: Bernie Sanders on Democrats’ economic messagingRead moreSanders is currently serving his third term in the US senate after 16 years in the House of Representatives and is the longest serving independent member of Congress in American history. He is the chairman of the budget committee where he helped write the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan.In an interview with the Guardian before the mid-term elections earlier this month, Sanders was keen to highlight the financial difficulties people were facing.“People are hurting,” he said. “You got 60% of our people living paycheck to paycheck, and for many workers, they are falling further behind as a result of inflation. Oil company profits are soaring, food company profits are soaring, drug company profits are soaring. Corporate profits are at an all-time high.”Sanders has often been critical of the Democratic party, saying in the interview that they “haven’t tried” to communicate to voters the threat of corporate profiteering to the cost of living.Sanders has run for the Democratic party presidential nomination twice, in 2016 and 2020, garnering huge support and raising large amounts of money, but both times ultimately failing to secure the nomination.TopicsBooksBernie SandersUS politicsPublishingPolitics booksnewsReuse this content More

If US president Joe Biden was looking for an excuse not to run in 2024, he didn’t get it in the midterms. Democrats not only avoided the dreaded “red wave”, but also managed to retain control of the Senate, held Republicans to a razor-thin majority in the House, and swept key gubernatorial contests.

Despite once-in-a-generation inflation and Biden’s stubbornly low approval ratings, Democrats defied expectations and enjoyed the best midterms of any president’s party in decades.

Biden’s victory lap was made even sweeter by the defeat of the most high-profile Trump-supporting candidates, sparking widespread criticism of the former president from within conservative circles.

Nevertheless, Trump has announced his 2024 presidential bid as planned, officially launching the next election cycle on November 15 and throwing down the gauntlet to Biden – who has styled himself as the only candidate who can beat Trump.

What does all this mean for Biden? Will he – and should he – seek reelection?

Murmurs that Biden should step aside in 2024 have gone quiet for the time being. But don’t expect that to last. Two-thirds of voters indicated in exit polls that they prefer Biden not to run for reelection. Those voters included over 40% of Democrats, leaving many on the left grumbling that victories happened in spite of Biden not because of him.

Yet even if Biden’s approval ratings get a bounce, he can’t change his age. Biden, who turns 80 this month, is already the oldest president in America’s history, and his second term would take him to 86. Biden insists that he’s in fine shape. But voters may have other thoughts, especially given several recent flubs that seem to go beyond his usual penchant for gaffes.

Unsurprisingly, Biden has so far indicated that he will run in 2024, with a firm decision expected in early 2023. That sets up at least several months of Democrat introspection, guessing games and hypotheticals on who’s best positioned to lead the party. Although a direct challenge to Biden is unlikely, if he does opt to bow out, the contest for his successor would be a wide open field.

Here are Democrats most likely to vie for the nomination:

Kamala Harris

As vice president, Kamala Harris should be the clear heir apparent to Biden. While still a potential front-runner, Harris would need a serious rebrand to clinch the nomination. Harris’s approval ratings are even worse than Biden’s and many Democrats perceive her nomination as “party suicide,” especially against a potential Republican juggernaut like Trump or rising star Ron DeSantis.

Marginal candidate: the US vice-president Kamala Harris.
EPA-EFE/Shawn Thew

As the first woman and person of colour to rise to the VP office, Harris would also be a barrier-breaking president. Yet even in a Democratic party eager to diversify, Harris may lack the political acumen and appeal to win over a general electorate. The fact that Biden has filled her governing portfolio with low-priority, low-visibility agenda items won’t help her cause — and neither will her own reputation for gaffes.

Pete Buttigieg

A Harvard graduate and former McKinsey consultant who speaks eight languages, Pete Buttigieg, the former small-town mayor of South Bend, Indiana, came to national prominence during the 2020 presidential campaign. He’s since been a notably visible secretary of transportation, promoting Biden’s 2022 infrastructure bill around the country. An openly gay husband and father, Buttigieg would bring a different kind of diversity to the Democratic ticket, even as he struggled to win over crucial black voters in 2020.

Rising star: Pete Buttigieg.
EPA-EFE/Caroline Brehman

Buttigieg’s erudite, wonkish reputation plays well within a demographic eager for a president with policy chops. At just 40 years old, he also resonates with a younger, urban, educated voter, though it’s unclear how he’d fare with other swaths of the electorate.

Nevertheless, Buttigieg was reportedly one of the most sought-after “surrogates” for Democrats campaigning in 2022. And, with several years of Washington service under his belt, Buttigieg may be better poised to parry criticism in this cycle that he lacks requisite governing experience.

Gretchen Whitmer

After holding onto the governorship in the swing state of Michigan with a double-digit win over a Trump-supporting candidate, Gretchen Whitmer’s stature within the Democratic party has continued to rise. A vocal advocate for abortion rights, she has also been one of the most visible Democrats confronting right-wing extremism. At the same time, Whitmer has managed to dodge the death knell label of “coastal elite,” and has leaned into her nickname, “Big Gretch.”

Reelected as governor of Michigan with a double-digit win over her MAGA opponent: Gretchen Whitmer.
EPA-EFE/Nic Antaya

Whitmer has little experience on the national stage, and she’s far from a household name. But she was reportedly shortlisted for Biden’s vice-presidential pick in 2020, and would likely appeal to electorates in critical “rust-belt” states in the midwest. But Whitmer did take considerable heat for her heavy-handed management of the COVID-19 pandemic, triggering outrage – and not just among Republicans.

Gavin Newsom

California governor Gavin Newsom had his own brush with pandemic politics, but survived a recall election in his home state by a wide margin in 2021. Newsom, who cut his teeth in business before pivoting to politics, has long been thought to harbour presidential ambitions. Formerly California’s lieutenant governor and San Francisco’s mayor, Newsom has a CV that, on paper, looks ready for prime-time.

‘Left coast’ contender: Gavin Newsom.
EPA-EFE/John G Mabanglo

An alleged strike against Newsom is that he’s too smooth and too “Hollywood.” As leader of California, a solidly “blue” or Democrat-voting state, he also doesn’t bring much to the national electoral math. Still, Newsom is positioned to raise his profile over the next year, with US$24 million (£20 million) in a campaign war chest and the political prominence that comes with running one of the biggest states in the country.

Amy Klobuchar

Amy Klobuchar, the senior US senator from Minnesota, won plaudits in the 2020 Democratic primaries for her pragmatic approach to politics. Rated as the “most effective” Democratic senator by a recent Vanderbilt University study, Klobuchar doesn’t dazzle in the traditional sense – and may even be seen as boring. Yet she’s earned a reputation for leadership, chairing both the Senate rules committee and the judiciary subcommittee on competition policy, antitrust, and consumer rights.

‘Most effective’ Democrat senator: Amy Klobuchar.
EPA-EFE/Shawn Thew

Klobuchar won’t be many Democrats’ first pick for president, even if one of her favourite lines in 2020 was that she’d never lost a campaign in her life (that streak ended when she withdrew from the nomination race, giving her support to Biden). Still, in a Democratic field without a clear frontrunner, Klobuchar — who has largely avoided big political missteps (although has been marred by accusations of mistreating her staff) – could become a viable candidate simply by process of elimination.

Bernie Sanders

At 81 years old, Bernie Sanders doesn’t exactly solve the Biden age problem. Although swapping out one octogenarian candidate for another might not seem viable, it’s hardly an impossibility. Sanders, a big-government liberal who identifies as a “democratic socialist”, not only has a cult following among his famed “Bernie Bros.” He also has the most crossover appeal to former Trump voters.

‘Democratic socialist’: Bernie Sanders.
EPA-EFE/Michael Reynolds

Sanders, who ran for president in both 2016 and 2020, has spent a lifetime championing efforts to tackle inequality through expanded entitlements. While a “last hurrah” run by Sanders might be more about making a point than winning, his celebrity is hard to discount. If Sanders chooses not to run, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the most likely successors to carry his mantle, while Senator Elizabeth Warren may also consider another run.

All moves now depend on Biden. He has said before that he would “not be disappointed” to face Trump in a rematch, and his recent response to critics who don’t want him to run was: “watch me”. For now, that leaves other presidential hopefuls – and the Democrats’ base – watching, and waiting. More

How Michigan Democrats took control for the first time in decadesRepublicans were expected to maintain their iron grip on state legislature – but Democrats took control of the vital swing state’s senate and house Early on the morning after the midterm elections, a stunning new development that few Michigan political observers imagined possible took shape: Democrats, for the first time in nearly 40 years, took control of the vital swing state’s senate and house.They achieved it in a year Republicans were expected to maintain their iron grip on the state legislature, but when the dust settled, Democrats held a 56-54 majority in the house and 20-18 advantage in the senate. It came in addition to Dems sweeping the statewide offices at the top of the ballot, retaining control of the state supreme court and winning a majority of US House seats.New generation of candidates stakes claim to Democratic party’s futureRead more“Michigan Republicans were decimated in an election when history tells us it never should have happened,” the right-leaning state political commentator Bill Ballenger wrote of the results. “The [Michigan] GOP lost everything of value.”The bellwether swing state in America’s industrial upper midwest is a political prize that has voted for the presidential winner in the last four national elections, but despite its bipartisan tendencies, gerrymandered legislative districts drawn by Republicans for decades have virtually ensured Democrats rarely have a chance to govern at the state level here.In the midterms’ wake, the confluence of forces that came together to propel the Democratic victory are becoming clear. Like elsewhere in the nation where Democrats performed well, the Michigan party benefited from facing many weak, extreme Republican candidates and a base motivated by the US supreme court overturning Roe v Wade.But state Democrats also charted their own destiny in some ways, observers note. They spent more on state legislative races than in past years, ran popular statewide candidates at the top of the ballot, and passed a string of citizen-led progressive ballot initiatives over the last three cycles that paid off in 2022.That started with the 2018 passage of initiatives for an independent redistricting commission and expansion of voting rights. The commission’s new lines went into effect this year, giving Democrats a much fairer shot at control. Meanwhile, the Democratic floor leader, Yousef Rabhi, who did not run for re-election but campaigned statewide for his party, spent most of election day at a university campus where hundreds of young people signed up to vote last minute. Their votes would not have been possible before the 2018 voting rights expansion.In 2022, an initiative to codify abortion rights in the state and a further expansion of voting rights again energized the liberal base and boosted turnout, and this time they voted on races run in fairer districts.“It was incredible to see,” Rabhi said. “But it was a multi-election process that never would have been possible prior to passing those laws in 2018.”State pollster Ed Sarpolous of Target Insyght laid today’s fairer legislative lines over the results from the past 20 years and found that with those districts in place Democrats would have won control of the legislature in 2006 and 2008.Pre-election polling by the Epic-MRA pollster Bernie Porn also highlighted how this year’s abortion rights initiative benefited Dems. Asked what single issue was motivating them to vote, 43% of respondents said abortion, which topped inflation by about 14 points.“Abortion, abortion, abortion,” Porn said. “This proposal drove women and younger voters to the polls … and if Democrats in other states have a mechanism to put an abortion ballot proposal on the ballot in 2024, then they should consider that.”The initiative, which passed by a 57-43 margin, also helped energize other key Michigan constituencies, like independents and Catholics, the latter of which have traditionally voted blue and are split on abortion, Sarpolous said.“Democrats do well when there are issues that all voters care about and this was viewed not as an abortion issue, but a women’s rights issue,” he added.Democrats in the legislature further benefited from what pollsters called the “coattails” effect. At the top of the ballot, Governor Gretchen Whitmer, the secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson, and attorney general, Dana Nessel, won their respective races by between eight and 15 points, which helped power Democratic candidates down ballot. Meanwhile, competitive races in US House seats had a similar effect, observers say.They were helped by what Ballanger told the Guardian were “historically weak” Republican candidates for statewide office – each was a Trump-backed election denier who was viewed as an extremist. Whitmer and national Democrats far outspent Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon and national Republicans, who may have given up on Dixon before the campaign ever got started.An analysis by Sarpolous found 27,000 Republicans voted for Whitmer, while about 216,000 Republican-leaning independents stayed home.“That was a killer,” Ballenger said. “That just affected races down the ballot.”Rabhi echoed that, and said he heard anecdotally from voters around the state while campaigning that the election denialism in particular was a turn-off: “They are batshit crazy at this point and that’s what I heard from Republicans, Democrats and independents alike.”He and other Democrats touted the strength of their legislative candidates who, along with Whitmer, focused on abortion and local issues that affected people in their districts. Republicans, by contrast, spent a large amount of resources on re-litigating the 2020 election, supporting gun rights or tying candidates to Joe Biden and inflation, a tactic that some say failed as Biden’s approval rating ticked up in the second half of the year.“Democratic candidates were actually trying to listen to the concerns of voters rather than throw red meat at them with some of these issues that Tudor Dixon and other Republicans pursued,” said Rodericka Applewhite, Michigan Democrats’ senior communications adviser.If they are to repeat in 2024, Democrats need to pursue the legislation they have been proposing in recent years that Republicans have killed, Rabhi said. That could mean repealing right-to-work, killing the GOP’s unpopular Line 5 gas pipeline being built through the Great Lakes, new oversight of unpopular utilities like DTE Energy, codifying equal rights for LGBTQ+ residents and more.“Now that we have the majority we have to deliver on promises and be the bold progressives that we should be,” Rabhi said.TopicsMichiganUS midterm elections 2022US politicsDemocratsfeaturesReuse this content More

Trump is now effectively in control of the US House of RepresentativesSidney BlumenthalKevin McCarthy will be a mere stooge – that is, until he’s replaced by someone even more Trumpist Even before the midterm elections – when the vaunted “red wave” dried up – influential Republicans, over drinks in Washington, casually discussed the fate of Kevin McCarthy as a short-timer.The man who would be the speaker of the House had already been taking a victory lap before a single vote was counted. “I’m better prepared now,” he recently told New York magazine. “If I’m not going to be acceptable to the body having that scenario this time, no one’s acceptable,” he boasted to Punchbowl News. The failed frozen yogurt shop owner from Bakersfield, California, envisions himself at last standing as the hero of his Horatio Alger success story atop the greasy pole. McCarthy now trumpets that he has won the confidence of the far-right Freedom Caucus that previously opposed his elevation. He clutches its leader, his twitchy former foe Jim Jordan, as a great friend. “Probably my biggest advocate is Jim Jordan,” he has said.McCarthy’s bravado discloses a hint of insecurity. The talk of the steakhouses is that he will not last long.Donald Trump’s ragtag minions of horned madmen and militias could not seize the Capitol on January 6. But when the 118th Congress is sworn in on 3 January, Trump’s coup will have broken through more than a police barrier to enter a new phase. That’s because Trump will, for all intents and purposes, become the de facto speaker of the House. If and when Nancy Pelosi ever so gently passes the gavel to Kevin McCarthy, “it would be hard not to hit her with it,” McCarthy said to the raucous laughter of a Republican crowd in 2021. The ultimate power will be held in the hands of Trump. From his gilded tropical palace, he will phone dictates to Jim Jordan and other acolytes who will transform the House of Representatives into his 2024 presidential campaign committee, virtual law firm and bludgeon for revenge. The House will be his hammer.Who’s next? Republicans who might go up against Trump in 2024Read moreTrump still looms over the party, contemptuous of the bitter Republican finger-pointing blaming him for the midterm disappointment. Rupert Murdoch’s overnight order to Fox News to hype Florida Governor Ron DeSantis cannot suddenly cancel the Trump show Murdoch has been instrumental in producing, though for years he reportedly privately called him “a fucking idiot”. Trump is hardly dislodged.In the 117th Congress, 147 Republicans out of 213 refused to certify the results of the electoral college. The margin of the slim new Republican majority will uniformly be election deniers, who will pad the Freedom Caucus before which McCarthy cowers. When the “red wave” was revealed to be a mirage, while the votes were still being tallied and the House Republican majority still uncertain, representative Matt Gaetz of Florida labeled McCarthy “McFailure”, pledged his eternal fealty to Trump and called for a challenge to McCarthy as speaker. Jason Miller, a former Trump official and his echo, went on Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast to declare that if McCarthy “wants a chance of being speaker, he needs to be much more declarative of supporting President Trump”. Bannon, free on appeal from his conviction for contempt of Congress for refusing to testify before the January 6 committee, replied that “the Maga-centric nature” of the House and the Republican party would intensify.When Trump’s mob ran through the corridors of the Capitol chanting “hang Mike Pence!” and “Nancy! Nancy!” and were yards away from breaking into McCarthy’s office, he desperately reached Trump at the White House to ask him to call it off. “Well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are,” Trump said, according to the journalist Robert Draper. “Am I upset? They’re trying to fucking kill me!” McCarthy shrieked. “Who the fuck do you think you are talking to?”In the days after the trauma, McCarthy raised the idea that cabinet members invoke the 25th amendment to remove Trump – then defended Trump from impeachment, which did not preclude Trump calling him a “pussy”, and on 27 January flew to Mar-a-Lago to bend his knee in supplication.McCarthy, even as he tries to balance along a fine line, chronically abases himself. Occasionally, he tries to cover his naked ambition with a transparent fig leaf. In May 2020, when Trump falsely claimed that Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman and an MSNBC TV host critical of Trump, had murdered a young female aide in 2001, despite being 800 miles away when she fell and fatally hit her head, McCarthy responded with a statement he must have thought displayed his political cuteness.“I was not here with Joe Scarborough,” he said. “I don’t quite know about the subject itself.”But abasement in the service of self-interest is not loyalty. Trump, who recalls every slight as lese-majesty, has taken McCarthy’s small measure as “my Kevin”. He knows that McCarthy thinks, as McCarthy blurted to the House Republican conference in 2017, that Putin “pays” Trump – “swear to God”. He will never be judged sufficiently loyal, nor trusted to do absolutely everything he’s ordered to do, especially when those orders are to lay siege to the justice department in a bid to interfere with its investigations of Trump.Kevin McCarthy’s McCarthyism, like the previous McCarthyism, is rooted in personal ambition, but in Kevin McCarthy’s case it is more motivated by a desire to to go along than by the feral instinct displayed by Joe McCarthy, with Roy Cohn whispering in his ear before he got into Trump’s.Kevin McCarthy has always known the score: that Republican mendacity, from little white lies to big lie, is born of sheer cynicism. From time to time, he inadvertently spills the beans. His impulse to babble the truth was uncontrollable in 2015, when he blabbed about the House investigation on Benghazi, revealing its political intent: “Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping.”McCarthy surely knows that the cruel Republican culture war is hypocrisy. When it comes to Trump’s handpicked senate candidate from Georgia, Herschel Walker – who is facing a runoff election with senator Raphael Warnock, and who allegedly paid for girlfriends’ abortions, allegedly abandoned both his legal and illegitimate children, and allegedly engaged in violence against his ex-wife – McCarthy has maintained radio silence.His passivity in the face of vice is the price he willingly pays to sustain the virtuous sheen of the culture war. While he advances himself through each cowardly act, his performance does not inspire confidence from his own cohort, who see through the cellophane man. He must dance faster and faster just to stand still.McCarthy will obediently issue blanket approval for House committees to launch a thousand inquisitions. Democratic groups engaged in voter turnout efforts will be investigated. Democratic attorneys who defend voting rights will be targeted. Progressive nonprofits involved with elections and criminal justice will have their nonprofit status challenged. Secretaries of state who have frustrated Trump election deniers will be pressured. Biden administration officials, from national security to homeland security, will be subpoenaed to scandalize their policies. Military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, already assailed by the Republican pro-Putin caucus, will be squeezed. No “blank check”, McCarthy has said.Corporations and banks that invest in green energy, or adopt diversity and equity policies, will be pressured. Tech platforms will be hauled before the klieg lights for depositions on alleged political discrimination against conservatives, to intimidate them into following the example of Elon Musk, who attended McCarthy’s private political retreat in Wyoming this past August. (“Elon believes in freedom. Elon is an entrepreneur. Such an American success story,” McCarthy said.)The subpoenas will fly. And, quite predictably, the House will manufacture a conflict over the federal budget to shut down the government in an attempt to enforce its draconian policies, as Republicans have done before as a tactic against Bill Clinton in 1995 to 1996 and against Barack Obama in 2013.Then the House may impeach President Biden – and possibly Vice-President Kamala Harris, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, among others. The writer Barton Gellman recently laid out the coming strategy in the Atlantic. “McCarthy wants to oversee subpoenas and Benghazi-style hearings to weaken the president ahead of the 2024 election, not issue a call for Biden’s removal,” Gellman writes. “But there is little reason to think that McCarthy can resist the GOP’s impulse to impeach once it gathers strength.”Gellman further quotes Ted Cruz, from the senator’s recent podcast, pressing for Biden’s impeachment, “whether it’s justified or not”, as payback for Trump’s two impeachments. Like many Republicans, Cruz uses the word “weaponize” in the same way that Republicans have adopted the word “grooming” to accuse public school teachers of trying to turn children transgender. “The Democrats weaponized impeachment,” said Cruz. “They used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. And one of the real disadvantages of doing that … is the more you weaponize it and turn it into a partisan cudgel, you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.”After the January 6 committee is disbanded, the House judiciary committee will paint a bull’s eye on the Department of Justice (DoJ). The committee will act as Trump’s team for the defense. As the investigations circling Trump close in, from the fake electors’ scheme to the Mar-a-Lago archives theft, Trump and his allies will intensify their charges that the justice department is “weaponizing” the law. Jim Jordan will claim that the DoJ is unfairly persecuting Trump while failing to investigate properly the “Biden crime family”, only beginning with Hunter Biden.The House Republicans will demand the internal documents and sources in every case the DoJ is pursuing about Trump. When the justice department refuses to hand over materials from ongoing investigations, subpoenas will be issued for them, and when the DoJ invariably declines – because to comply would violate the law and all of its protocols – contempt charges will be filed against attorney general Merrick Garland, his deputy, Lisa Monaco, and individual prosecutors. The dismissal of those contempt filings will have no bearing on the House proceeding to the impeachment of Garland, Monaco, et al.The point for the Republicans will not necessarily be to remove Garland, which would be highly unlikely, but instead to discredit any justice department case against Trump as politically motivated, to portray Trump as the victim, and to rouse the Republican base. Most importantly, the judiciary committee interference would attempt to severely cripple the investigations.If this sounds like conjecture, consider that Jim Jordan wrote to Merrick Garland and the FBI director, Christopher Wray, on 2 November – a week before the election and under the letterhead of the judiciary committee, as if he were already the chairman – demanding information and sources in current cases involving Trump, extremist militias and far-right figures.Trump is running for president again – but these legal battles might stand in the wayRead moreIn his lengthy list of requests, he asked for “all documents and communications between or among employees of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Department of Justice, and the executive office of the president referring or relating to classifying or reclassifying domestic violent extremism cases, for the period of January 1 2020, to the present”; “all documents and communications referring or relating to the decision to seek a search warrant for President Trump’s residence”; and “all documents and communications referring or relating to the use of confidential human source(s) in connection with the search of President Trump’s residence”. Jordan followed up by releasing a dense 1,050-page compendium of conspiracy theories – 1,050 rabbit holes he promises to go down.If McCarthy exhibits the slightest queasiness, commits another of his trademark gaffes that reveal too much of the truth, or is simply not militant enough for Trump, his speakership will become unstable. The jackals already surround him, and there is a ready alternative waiting in the wings to replace him. Elise Stefanik, adored by Trump, seamlessly transmogrified from moderate to Maga, emerging as Trump’s defender during his first impeachment. “A new Republican star is born,” Trump tweeted. The 38-year-old congresswoman’s ambition is a raging fever.Once a classic Bush Republican – an assistant to George W Bush’s eminently reasonable chief of staff Josh Bolten, no less – Stefanik has since become Trump’s full-throated champion. She whipped up the purge of Liz Cheney as chair of the House Republican conference for Cheney’s heresy and engineered herself into the job, profusely praising Trump as “the leader”. This year, she introduced a resolution to expunge his second impeachment over the insurrection as “a sham smear”. Since the midterm elections, she has thrice endorsed Trump for president in 2024. The leaning tumbril awaits McCarthy too.Trump declared his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination the third time, after two impeachments and a coup attempt, one week after the Republican midterm debacle, in which many of the loyalists bearing his imprimatur fell before the voters. Nor has he been deterred by the prospect of a contest with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who, to claim the prize, would have to murder the king and be tainted with his blood.It was a grand illusion that Trump would somehow fade away, Biden restore the spirit of civility of the old Senate, and Garland prosecute the January 6 rioters to be done with the mess, shelving the whole episode as a thing of the past, with decency and the rule of law prevailing again.The Republican fear campaign in the midterm elections, projecting the menaces of inflation, crime and trans rights, will dissolve the instant the contest is over. On January 6, Trump waved his mob forward: “We’re going to walk down to the Capitol, and we’re going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women, and we’re probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them.” Trump’s coup, which has never ended, will now continue with the House of Representatives as his chief political tool.TS Eliot, in The Hollow Men, wrote:.css-f9ay0g{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C74600;}Between the ideaAnd the realityBetween the motionAnd the actFalls the ShadowOn 13 September, Trump retweeted a kitsch portrait of himself wearing a “Q” on his lapel, the symbol of the QAnon conspiracy cult that venerates him; its slogan, “The Storm Is Coming”; and the cryptic letters, “WWG1WGA”, which mean “Where We Go One, We Go All”. As Trump tweeted on 23 December 2020 to promote the January 6 insurrection: “Will be wild”.
Sidney Blumenthal, former senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, has published three books of a projected five-volume political life of Abraham Lincoln: A Self-Made Man, Wrestling With His Angel and All the Powers of Earth
TopicsDonald TrumpOpinionUS midterm elections 2022US politicsUS CongressRepublicansDemocratscommentReuse this content More

Republicans scrape back control of US House after midterms flopSlim majority means any member of party sitting in House of Representatives could stymie legislation

US midterms: results in full
Republicans have won back control of the House of Representatives, scraping a victory from a midterm election that many had expected to be a red wave of wins but instead turned into more of a trickle.Nevertheless, the party finally won its crucial 218th seat in the lower chamber of Congress, wresting away control from the Democrats and setting the stage for a showdown with Joe Biden in the next two years of his presidency.US midterm elections results 2022: liveRead moreThe result means the end of Democrat Nancy Pelosi’s time as House speaker. She is likely to pass the gavel to the Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, who has announced his intention to take up the post.Control of the House is crucial as it will allow the Republicans to launch an array of congressional investigations into issues ranging from Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan to more obviously politicised probes of government actions during the Covid pandemic and Biden’s son Hunter’s business activities.The Republican-run House is likely to be a raucous affair as its predicted slim majority means it will take only a few rebels to stymie any legislation – in effect handing great power to almost every Republican member of the House. With the Republican right full of fringe figures, including Georgia’s Marjorie Taylor Greene, that could be a recipe for chaos and the promotion of extremist beliefs and measures.Trump for 2024 would be ‘bad mistake’, Republican says as blame game deepens Read moreBiden congratulated McCarthy on the victory and said he was “ready to work with House Republicans to deliver results for working families”.“Last week’s elections demonstrated the strength and resilience of American democracy,” the president added. “There was a strong rejection of election deniers, political violence, and intimidation.”Biden and his party had gone into election day largely expecting to get a thumping from an electorate angry at high inflation that has wrought misery for millions of Americans struggling with bills and spiraling prices. Republicans had doubled down on that by running campaigns that stoked fears of violent crime and portrayed Democrats as far-left politicians out of touch with voters’ concerns.But the Democrats fought back, pointing out the extremist nature of many Republican politicians, especially a cadre of far-right figures backed by Donald Trump, and warning of the threat to US democracy they represented. They were also boosted by the backlash from the loss of federal abortion rights, taken away by a conservative-dominated supreme court.03:20The result was a shock: Democrats held up in swathes of the country and while Republicans won in some parts, such as Florida, in many other parts their candidates were defeated. High-profile Trump-backed candidates such as Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania lost their races.Meanwhile, Republican performance in the Senate was worse. Democrats retained control of the upper chamber when their incumbent senator was projected as the winner in Nevada the Saturday after election night.The remaining seat up for grabs, in Georgia, will be decided in a run-off between incumbent Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger Herschel Walker in early December after neither surpassed 50% of the vote.If Warnock wins, Democrats will enjoy a one-seat majority, 51-49, in the 100-seat senate, a small but significant improvement on the current 50-50 balance, which leaves Democrats in control because the vice-president, Kamala Harris, has the tie-breaking vote.That situation will continue if Walker wins the seat for the Republicans.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022RepublicansHouse of RepresentativesDemocratsNancy PelosiJoe BidenUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

ExplainerQ&A: what does a split Congress mean for US politics?With Republicans in control of the House and Democrats holding the Senate, expect a legislative logjam Republicans officially captured control of the House on Wednesday, as the Associated Press called the 218th seat for the party. The House victory ends four years of Democratic control of the lower chamber, handing Republicans the speakership and the chairmanships of key committees, while Democrats will maintain control of the Senate.But the incoming Republican speaker has the unenviable task of attempting to pass legislation with a very narrow majority, where only a few defections within the party will be enough to kill a bill.Republicans had hoped that a “red wave” in the midterm elections would allow them to flip dozens of House seats, giving them a much more comfortable majority. Instead, Republicans were barely about to flip the House, and Democrats may even be able to increase their Senate majority depending on the results of the Georgia runoff next month.With the House and the Senate now both called, Washington is bracing for at least two years of split control of Congress. Here’s what we can expect. :Will Congress be able to pass any bills?It will be extremely difficult for Democrats to advance their legislative agenda. Republicans can use their majority power to block any bills passed by the Democratic Senate from even getting a vote on the House floor.Since Joe Biden took office, some notable bills have passed the House with bipartisan support, including the infrastructure law that the president signed late last year. But the new Republican speaker will probably be hesitant to hand Biden and his party any more policy wins before the 2024 presidential race, which could result in a legislative logjam.How will Republicans use their House majority?Given their very narrow majority, House Republicans may have trouble advancing major legislation through the chamber. Even if they are able to pass something, the bill would almost certainly fail in the Democratic Senate, so it seems likely House Republicans will focus most of their attention on investigations and executive oversight.Even before polls closed last Tuesday, House Republicans had outlined plans to launch a series of investigations into the Biden administration and members of the president’s family. Republican members have expressed keen interest in investigating the administration’s handling of the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden’s oversight of the US-Mexican border and his son Hunter’s overseas business dealings.Some of the far-right members of the House Republican caucus have also threatened to use their new majority to hold up must-pass bills, including a debt ceiling hike. If the debt ceiling – essentially, the maximum amount the US government can borrow – is not raised, it could jeopardize the entire US economy. Some House Republicans have signaled they want to withhold support for a debt ceiling increase until they secure concessions on government spending and entitlement programs.The new House Republican majority could also threaten proposals to send more military aid to Ukraine amidst its war against Russia. The far-right congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has said that “not another penny will go to Ukraine” once Republicans take control, alarming Ukraine’s allies on Capitol Hill and abroad. With such a narrow majority, it only takes a few votes to block bills.Who will replace Nancy Pelosi as House speaker?That is a question that many House Republicans are asking themselves right now as well. The obvious frontrunner for the role – which oversees, manages and directs the majority party in the House – is Kevin McCarthy, the California Republican who has served as House minority leader since 2019.But McCarthy has faced some dissent from within his own caucus, and it remains unclear whether he can get the 218 votes needed to become speaker. On Tuesday, the House Republican caucus easily nominated McCarthy as their speaker candidate, but 31 members cast ballots for the far-right Arizona lawmaker Andy Biggs. That tally could spell disaster for McCarthy when the full floor vote is held in January.“My position remains the same until further notice – no one has 218 (or close, as needed),” Chip Roy, a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus who nominated Biggs, told the Texas Tribune on Tuesday. “We have to sit down and establish the fundamental changes needed.”How will Biden work with the new Republican speaker?Before becoming president, Biden built a reputation in the Senate for his ability to reach across the aisle and strike compromise with his Republican colleagues. During the 2020 Democratic primary, Biden boasted about how he was even able to work with hardline segregationists such as James Eastland and Strom Thurmond. Those comments, meant to demonstrate Biden’s collaborative nature, outraged many Democratic primary voters.But in recent months, Biden has become increasingly vocal in his criticism of the modern Republican party, which he says is beholden to Donald Trump and hostile to democratic principles. “Donald Trump and the Maga Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic,” Biden said in September.McCarthy has responded to Biden’s criticism by accusing the president of having “chosen to divide, demean, and disparage his fellow Americans … simply because they disagree with his policies”.So if McCarthy does manage to capture the speakership, he and Biden will not be starting off their new relationship on the best footing. When a reporter asked Biden last week about his relationship with McCarthy, the president deflected.“I think he’s the Republican leader, and I haven’t had much of [an] occasion to talk to him,” Biden replied. “But I will be talking to him.”What can Democrats get done without control of the House?Democrats’ continued control of the Senate ensures that they will still be able to approve Biden’s cabinet and judicial nominations. Their Senate majority will allow Democrats to install more liberal judges in key posts, and it could give them the ability to fill another supreme court seat if one opens up in the next two years.But overall, Democrats’ best opportunity to enact change between now and 2024 may come down to the power of the executive. Biden has already signed more than 100 executive orders since becoming president, according to the Presidency Project at University of California Santa Barbara.Biden has used executive orders to overturn some of Trump’s most controversial policies, such as halting funding for construction of a wall at the US-Mexican border, and to advance progressive proposals that would otherwise stall in Congress. Biden’s order to provide student debt relief of up to $20,000 for millions of borrowers was celebrated by the president’s progressive allies, although the policy is now facing legal challenges.With Republicans now in control of the House, Biden could soon be reaching for his executive pen more frequently.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US CongressRepublicansDemocratsUS politicsHouse of RepresentativesUS SenateexplainersReuse this content More

AnalysisRepublicans are already fighting with each other as they take House controlMartin PengellyControlling an unruly party with an extremely narrow majority will all but guarantee brutal tests every day Even before Republicans took the House of Representatives, leading figures on the right of the party pointed to troubled waters ahead for Kevin McCarthy – or whoever else becomes the next House speaker.Now Republicans have won their slim victory in the lower chamber of Congress, the next two years are likely to be chaotic. Controlling an unruly party with an extremely narrow majority will all but guarantee brutal tests every day, especially from the right wing.Fighting among Republicans over who leads the House is already in full swing. On Tuesday, Clay Higgins of Louisiana, a member of the hard-right Freedom Caucus, would not tell Politico if he would back McCarthy.But Higgins did say: “The speaker of the House, whomever he or she is, will be required to recognise the center of gravity of the conference itself. And the Freedom Caucus has moved that center of gravity to the right.”Andy Biggs, a Freedom Caucus member from Arizona and an ardent backer of Donald Trump’s electoral fraud lie, challenged McCarthy, now minority leader, to be the Republican nominee for speaker.“My bid to run for speaker is about changing the paradigm and the status quo,” Biggs tweeted, adding: “McCarthy does not have the votes needed to become the next speaker of the House and his speakership should not be a foregone conclusion.”Biggs did not have the votes in secret leadership ballots on Tuesday, losing 188-31 to McCarthy. But the speaker’s role will not be decided till January and any candidate for speaker must attract 218 votes. That is a simple House majority, not confined to party lines, but Republicans are set to hold power by not much more and McCarthy must now win over his skeptics.Backstage manoeuvers are in full swing. On Tuesday a moderate Democrat, Henry Cuellar of Texas, confirmed that consultants allied to McCarthy had been seeking his vote, via a switch to become a Republican.The Republican party is in flux, after a predicted midterms “red wave” failed to materialize and with leaders under fire from all directions, each faction seeking to identify what went wrong and set course for the next two years.Another prominent rightwinger, Matt Gaetz of Florida, is among those demanding aggressive action against Democrats, including investigations of Hunter Biden, the coronavirus response and immigration policy and swift impeachment of Joe Biden.On Monday, Gaetz said of McCarthy: “I’m not voting for him tomorrow. I’m not voting for him on the floor. And I am certain that there is a critical mass of people who hold my precise view.”On Tuesday, after McCarthy’s party vote victory, Gaetz told reporters the current minority leader “couldn’t get 218 votes, he couldn’t get 200 votes, he couldn’t get 190 votes today, so to believe that Kevin McCarthy is going to be speaker, you have to believe he’s going to get votes in the next six weeks that he couldn’t get in six years”.Illustrating party ferment, however, an equally visible and extreme provocateur, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, has taken an opposing view.03:20Speaking to the former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, Greene said denying McCarthy the speaker’s gavel would be “bad strategy when we’re looking at having a very razor-thin majority”.McCarthy has confirmed that if made speaker, he will restore to Greene committee assignments Democrats stripped over her extremist views and behaviour.Greene also pointed to an outlandish idea, nonetheless circulating on Capitol Hill, that moderate Republicans could join with Democrats and install Liz Cheney, an anti-Trump conservative, as speaker.Greene said: “We’ve already been through two years where we saw Republicans – Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger – cross over and join the Democrats and produce a January 6 committee.“The danger is this: do we want to watch a challenge for speaker of the House simply because the ‘Never Kevin’ movement – just like we’ve seen a ‘Never Trump’ movement – do we want to see that challenge open the door to Nancy Pelosi handing the gavel to Liz Cheney?”Cheney will soon leave the House, having lost her Wyoming primary to a Trump-backed challenger. But the speaker of the House does not have to be a member of Congress, hence a previous fringe idea that Republicans could put Trump in the role.On Monday, Don Bacon, a Republican moderate from Nebraska, told NBC News “Cheney for speaker” was a non-starter. But he also said that if his party paralysed itself with partisan infighting, he would work with Democrats to install a moderate Republican speaker.“I will support Kevin McCarthy,” he said. “But … I do want the country to work and we need to govern. We can’t sit neutral. We can’t have total gridlock for two years.”TopicsRepublicansHouse of RepresentativesUS politicsanalysisReuse this content More

US court sentences Chinese spy to 20 years for stealing trade secretsXu Yanjun was accused of a lead role in a five-year Chinese state-backed scheme to steal commercial secrets from GE Aviation A US federal court has sentenced a Chinese intelligence officer to 20 years in prison after he was convicted last year of plotting to steal trade secrets from from US and French aviation and aerospace companies.Xu Yanjun was accused of a lead role in a five-year Chinese state-backed scheme to steal commercial secrets from GE Aviation, one of the world’s leading aircraft engine manufacturers, and France’s Safran Group, which was working with GE on engine development.Xu was one of 11 Chinese nationals, including two intelligence officers, named in October 2018 indictments in federal court in Cincinnati, Ohio, where GE Aviation is based.The Chinese ministry of state security intelligence officer was arrested in April 2018 in Belgium, where he had apparently been lured into a counter-intelligence operation – he had planned to secretly meet a GE employee on the trip.He was extradited to the United States, where he stood trial and was convicted in a jury trial on 5 November 2021 of attempted economic espionage, attempted trade secret theft, and two related conspiracy charges.Prosecutors had asked for a 25-year sentence to act as deterrent against similar actions, but Xu’s lawyers said in earlier court filings that such a sentence request exceeded those given to other people convicted of such crimes.“Xu targeted American aviation companies, recruited employees to travel to China, and solicited their proprietary information, all on behalf of the government of the People’s Republic of China,” the Justice Department said in a statement.“This case sends a clear message: we will hold accountable anyone attempting to steal American trade secrets,” said Ohio federal prosecutor Kenneth Parker.Last year, China’s foreign ministry labeled the charges against Xu “pure fabrication”.US officials say the Chinese government poses the biggest long-term threat to US economic and national security, and is carrying out unprecedented efforts to steal critical technology from US businesses and researchers.The FBI director, Christopher Wray, has said his agency opens a new counterintelligence case related to China about twice a day.TopicsOhioChinaEspionageUS politicsnewsReuse this content More