US Politics

Wednesday briefing: Trump announces his third presidential bid – but can he win?In today’s newsletter: The former president wants to make American great again … again. Here’s what he said, how it was received and what the arguments are for and against – gulp – Trump 2024

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Good morning. To many observers in the Republican party, Donald Trump was the single biggest drag on their hugely disappointing performance in last week’s US midterm elections. Trump has listened, weighed the available evidence, undertaken a searching examination of his own role in the debacle, and – you are not going to believe this – concluded that he disagrees. Instead, he told an enthusiastic audience at Mar-a-Lago overnight, “in order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States.”Persuaded of his own magnificence though Trump is, there are many good reasons to think that his return is extremely bad news for the Republican party. And yet. With the help of the Guardian US reporting team, today’s newsletter will run you through what the former president said, how it was received and what the arguments are for and against – gulp – Trump 2024. That’s after the headlines.Five big stories
Russia | Joe Biden has said that a missile that landed in Poland killing two people on Tuesday was “unlikely” to have been fired from Russia due to its trajectory. Amid alarm over at the implications of any attack on Nato territory, Moscow has denied responsibility, while Poland would only say that the missiles appeared to be “Russian-made”.
Cop27 | Fear of countries backsliding on their commitments to tackle the climate crisis dominated the Cop27 UN climate talks in Egypt on Tuesday, as the first tentative drafts started to emerge of key potential decisions. Documents and proposals seen by the Guardian showed some countries attempting to unpick agreements and water down commitments.
Housing | The death of Awaab Ishak, an “engaging, lively, endearing” two-year-old, was a result of chronic mould in his family’s social housing flat in Rochdale, an inquest said. The coroner said Awaab’s tragic death should be a “defining moment” for the housing sector.
G20 | Rishi Sunak will extend Britain’s hand to China for the first time in almost five years, asking for closer relations on energy and the economy in a meeting with president Xi Jinping on Tuesday. The move risks a backlash from Conservative MPs who have had sanctions imposed upon them by Beijing.
Egypt | Alaa Abd el-Fattah, the British-Egyptian democracy activist in jail in Egypt, has said in a letter to his family that he has ended his six-month hunger strike.
In depth: ‘It feels very strange to be back here again’Trump’s advisers had hoped his speech might be limited to 45 minutes: in the event, he continued for more than an hour. David Smith sent a voice note from the Mar-a-Lago ballroom shortly after he finished. Trump’s confirmation of his intention to run “prompted an eruption of cheers and whistles from several hundred guests under the crystal chandeliers,” he said, but “apart from that I think the general consensus here is that it was a pretty low energy speech … unusually for anyone who’s been to one of his rallies, it was at times quite boring.”There were some characteristically wild moments, like his vow that drug dealers will “receive the death penalty for their heinous acts”. But overall, David said, “I did not see much at Mar-a-Lago tonight that is going to rattle Joe Biden or potential Republican rivals in the primary.” You can read David’s sketch, in which he compares Trump to “an ageing champ returning to centre court only to find he’s holding a wooden racket,” here.It feels “very strange to be back here again”, said Guardian US political correspondent Lauren Gambino. After disappointing midterm results, “there are all these questions about what the future of the party should look like, and he’s just really pulling them back to 2020”.Here are some arguments for and against Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination.Why Trump’s not the force he was1 He was a drag on Republicans in the midtermsIf ideological or ethical concerns have never been enough to wean the GOP off Trump, cold electoral arithmetic might be. The party has now failed in three elections in a row with him as its figurehead. In a midterm year which by any historic guide should have been a success for the “out” party, Republicans failed to capture the Senate and will only squeak the narrowest of victories in the House of Representatives.Trump ignored those disappointments, instead celebrating: “Nancy Pelosi has been fired. Isn’t that nice?” But whatever he says, it looks as if his influence was a crucial reason for the failure. In this analysis for the Washington Post, Philip Wallach, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, writes that in competitive races, candidates with Trump endorsements fared around seven percentage points worse than those he didn’t support.2 He’s lost important support in the media and party establishmentUntil recently, Trump could count on the near-unanimous backing of the conservative media in the US. Now, as Adam Gabbatt writes in his analysis of rightwing media coverage, there have been signs that Rupert Murdoch’s empire may have turned on the former president, who was branded “Trumpty Dumpty” by the New York Post and called “the Republican party’s biggest loser” by the Wall Street Journal.On Fox News last night, Adam writes, “it seemed that not everyone was ready to let Trump go”. But there were still nuances to the coverage which would once have been unimaginable.“Fox News has been tied so closely to Trump for so long that an immediate ditching was always unlikely – but there were some small signs through the evening that perhaps they’re pulling away,” Adam said in a voice note. He pointed to an interview with possible rival Mike Pence, a “quite subdued” appearance from longtime supporter Sean Hannity, and the decision to cut away from Trump’s speech to analysis even as it continued.“I think in previous years if Trump had a big announcement to make at 9 o’clock, that’s, like, three hours of Fox News coverage sorted – just Trump, Trump, Trump. It wasn’t that.”It’s not just the media: for one example of how the party establishment feels more able to take on Trump, see this story from Monday on Politico, which notes that the influential Club for Growth – once a reliable Trump cheerleader – has pushed out polling data showing him trailing rival Ron DeSantis in key primary states. Even his daughter Ivanka says she will not be part of the 2024 campaign.3 He has a viable rival on the far rightDeSantis (below) was one of the Republican party’s few big winners on election night, beating his Democratic rival by almost 20 points in the race to be governor of Florida. DeSantis is a threat to Trump precisely because he hews pretty closely to his extreme ideology without the former president’s baggage or unpredictability – and a YouGov poll shows him with a seven-point lead among Republican voters nationally.Trump’s nickname for the man he views as the only serious threat to his domination of the Republican party, Ron DeSanctimonious, is pretty funny – but Republican voters may ask themselves if they wouldn’t prefer a more “normal” politician who, at 44, also presents a helpful generational contrast with 79-year-old Joe Biden. For more on the Trump-DeSantis rivalry, see this piece from yesterday by Chris McGreal. And Martin Pengelly has a guide to the other likely candidates.Why he might be the candidate anyway1 He wasn’t the Republicans’ only problem in the midtermsWhile Trump was undoubtedly an issue for Republican candidates, there are sound arguments that the party’s difficulties were not limited to his influence. In the American Conservative, the successful Trump-endorsed Senate candidate in Ohio, JD Vance, argues that blaming the former president ignores the Democrats’ advantage in “small-dollar fundraising” and calls Republican efforts “paltry by comparison”. While the overall fundraising picture is complex, Axios reported that in the 10 most competitive Senate races, Republicans were outraised by $75m among small-dollar donors.It may be hard to wholly separate fundraising from Trump’s influence as rallying force for Democrats. But Vance argues that the best way to solve the problem is to “build a turnout machine” and that the party has “one major asset … to rally these voters: President Donald Trump”. (Unsurprisingly, Trump agrees: he has blamed the GOP establishment, the electoral system, the candidates themselves and reportedly, for her alleged role in leading him to support doomed Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, his wife, Melania.)2 He can still win the nomination without being very popularA presidential election is another question – but in the contest for the Republican nomination, Trump can prevail with the highly motivated minority of Republican voters who still prefer him to any other candidate. Republican pollsters estimate that proportion of GOP primary voters at between one-third and 40%. In 2016, Trump won the Republican primary with about 45% of the vote overall, and many states with less than that. Until DeSantis or anyone else proves they can defeat him with voters, he remains a very serious candidate for the nomination.3 He’s been underestimated beforeIt would be foolish to write off the extensive evidence that Trump’s star is on the wane – but past experience suggests that it would be equally unwise to write him off so early. Meanwhile, there is no sign that the Republican party is thinking hard about what a successful political message that repudiates Trumpism would look like.One plausible theory is that despite his many disadvantages, his supporters are less interested in winning elections than in maintaining their love affair with the politician who tells them they’re right about everything. “It’s tempting to see the strength of the Maga forces ebbing at last, the calendar leaf turning over on the Trump era,” Tom Scocca wrote for the New York Times this week. “But how do you declare defeat for a movement that is built around refusing to accept defeat?”Extremely onlineFor a raucous summary of how Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter has gone so far, look no further than this exhaustive thread from @christapeterso. Features Mario giving the finger, and Musk on the future of the company: “We all need to be more hardcore.”What else we’ve been reading
Once you’ve read Dan Hancox’s account of “proper binmen” memes, you’ll see the past and the present differently. Beautifully written, subtle and featuring a three-paragraph rendition of the sweep of the “baby boomer nostalgia industrial complex” that could hardly be bettered. Archie
India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has presented himself as a committed environmentalist who wants his country to embrace renewable energy, all while unveiling plans to increase coal production to 1bn tonnes a year. Hannah Ellis-Petersen dives into India’s energy conundrum. Nimo
Ageing gamers like me have much to learn from Keith Stuart’s guide to surviving an online ecosystem ruled by trigger-happy teens. As with most things for the over-30s, it comes down to not running, spending a lot of money on equipment and hiding as much as possible. Archie
David Squires’ cartoon on the death of Qatar World Cup worker Rupchandra Rumba by “natural causes”, building on the reporting of Pete Pattisson, makes the brutal conditions faced by those who made the tournament possible inescapable. And read Pattisson’s piece on what he’s learned in reporting on migrant workers’ plight. Archie
In this hilarious and honest Q&A, Liam Pape spoke to the comedian Sara Pascoe about the best and worst advice she’s ever received, her relationship with feminism and her new show Success Story. Nimo
SportWorld Cup | Gay Qataris have been promised safety from torture in exchange for helping authorities track down other LGBTQ+ people, a prominent Qatari campaigner told the Guardian. Dr Nasser Mohamed said foreign gay fans would not face prosecution during the tournament but warned that gay Qataris faced a very different reality.Football | England’s Lionesses could not find a 17th victory of the year but signed off on an unbeaten 2022 with a 1-1 draw against Norway, who equalised late on despite the sending off of Anja Sønstevold.Cricket | Simon Burnton’s review of the T20 World Cup reflects on the tournament’s thrilling unpredictability – the Netherlands v South Africa for best match? – and asks the hard questions of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.The front pagesOur Guardian print edition leads with “Russian barrage strikes Ukraine amid claims missiles hit Poland”. The front-page picture is Awaab Ishak, not even two, who died from mould in the family flat. Of that, the Daily Express says “Tragic death of boy from mould shames Britain”. The Times has “Russians blamed for fatal strike on Poland” while the Daily Mirror says “Russian bombs hit Poland” under the banner “Tyrant’s war on Ukraine” with a picture of Vladimir Putin. “Putin’s war spills into Poland” – that’s the i, while the Daily Telegraph has “Russian missile strikes Poland”. The Metro says “Putin’s war escalates – ‘Russian missiles’ hit Poland”. In the Financial Times, it’s “Sunak urges bosses to curb their pay and look after staff”. The culture wars are back on in the Daily Mail: “Universities are told to ‘decolonise’ maths and computing”. And the footballer Ronaldo has told the Sun that “I keep our baby Angel’s ashes. I talk to him all the time”.Today in FocusReclaiming Kherson: what Russia’s retreat reveals about the fight for UkraineUkrainians have reacted with jubilation after retaking Kherson city and the region around it. But what did living under Russian occupation do to the area and its people – and is this really the beginning of the end of the war?Cartoon of the day | Martin RowsonThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badCorals that were planted in 2017 at Fitzroy Island on the Great Barrier Reef have spawned for the first time. They were planted as part of a pilot programme testing the benefits of offshore “coral nurseries” – the hopes were that the corals that were grown from fragments that had survived mass bleaching would be resilient to heatwaves in the future. The spawning has been described as a “beautiful milestone” in the journey to recovering Australia’s corals. So far the Reef Restoration Foundation has established 33 coral nurseries to help the health of the reef on a small localised scale.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
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TopicsDonald TrumpFirst EditionRepublicansUS politicsUS midterm elections 2022Ron DeSantisnewslettersReuse this content More

AnalysisTrump’s speech was full of exaggerated and false talking pointsJoan E GreveThe former president consistently painted a misleading image of his years in office, recalling nonexistent global peace, secure borders and a strong economy Donald Trump’s announcement that he will run for president again in 2024 was met with joy, dismay and mockery across the political spectrum.Making the widely anticipated announcement at his Florida resort of Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday night, Trump delivered remarks that would feel quite familiar to anyone who has watched one of his many campaign rallies. Looking back on America as he left the presidency in early 2021, Trump painted a rosy and often misleading picture of a nation that had established secure borders, a strong economy and global peace.Trump announces 2024 run nearly two years after inspiring deadly Capitol riotRead moreTrump largely ignored the global pandemic that defined his final year as president and killed more than 400,000 Americans before he stepped down. He made the bizarre claim that the country had gone decades without a war while he was president, even though the war in Afghanistan was still unfolding at the end of his term. And Trump delivered the baseless declaration that the US-Mexican border had been “erased” since Joe Biden was sworn in.Trump used these consistently exaggerated and frequently false talking points to make his case for a third presidential bid.“Two years ago, we were a great nation, and soon we will be a great nation again,” Trump said. “In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States.”00:52The announcement was celebrated by Trump’s most loyal allies, who have continued to stand by him even after he incited a deadly insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6.“If President Trump continues this tone and delivers this message on a consistent basis, he will be hard to beat,” said Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator of South Carolina. “His speech tonight, contrasting his policies and results against the Biden administration, charts a winning path for him in the primaries and general election.”But Republicans’ disappointing performance in the midterm elections last week may contradict Graham’s confident assessment of Trump’s prospects. Despite widespread expectations that Republicans would easily recapture the House majority, control of the lower chamber remained officially up for grabs as Trump delivered his speech on Tuesday night. In the Senate, Democrats have already secured two more years of majority power, and they may even pick up a seat depending on the results of the Georgia runoff next month.Speaking to a friendly crowd on Tuesday, Trump boasted an endorsement success rate in the midterms of 232 wins and only 22 losses, ignoring the fact that the 22 losses came in some of the consequential elections of the year. Trump’s Senate picks like Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania and Don Bolduc of New Hampshire lost races that could have helped Republicans win back the majority. Those who embraced Trump’s lies about widespread fraud in the 2020 election, such as gubernatorial candidates Kari Lake of Arizona and Don Mastriano of Pennsylvania, performed particularly badly last Tuesday.“I think it’s basically the third election in a row that Donald Trump has cost us the race, and it’s like three strikes, you’re out,” Larry Hogan, the outgoing Republican governor of Maryland and a frequent Trump critic, told CNN on Sunday.Never one to accept responsibility for (or even acknowledge) defeat, Trump instead suggested that Republican candidates lost because Americans are simply not yet feeling the sting of near record-high inflation and economic uncertainty.Time will tell whether that downbeat message will resonate with voters, but Democrats have wasted no time in reminding Americans of what they may not have appreciated about Trump’s presidency. The Tuesday speech brought a flood of anti-Trump fundraising emails from Democratic candidates and groups, and the sitting president himself joined in on the pile-on. Even before Trump had concluded his remarks, Joe Biden shared a video on Twitter noting that his predecessor saw an overall decline in jobs and attempted to overturn the Affordable Care Act.“Donald Trump failed America,” Biden said in the tweet.A senior Biden White House official also mocked the Mar-a-Lago speech as boring, a criticism that was echoed by a former member of Trump’s own administration.“This is one of the most low-energy, uninspiring speeches I’ve ever heard from Trump,” said Sarah Matthews, who left the White House after the January 6 insurrection. “Even the crowd seems bored. Not exactly what you want when announcing a presidential run.”This is one of the most low-energy, uninspiring speeches I’ve ever heard from Trump. Even the crowd seems bored. Not exactly what you want when announcing a presidential run.— Sarah Matthews (@SarahAMatthews1) November 16, 2022
Trump’s decision to announce so early, just one week after the last election cycle concluded, means that his critics will have more time to dissect his record and campaign appearances. But for Trump himself, the early announcement could come with some benefits.Trump, who has been quick to denounce any investigation of him as a witch hunt, now faces legal threats on multiple fronts, and he will likely use his newly announced candidacy to bolster his questionable claims of political persecution.Trump’s early announcement is also an apparent attempt to clear the field for the Republican nomination, as one 2024 contender in particular appears to be gaining momentum. Florida governor Ron DeSantis has received glowing coverage from right-leaning media outlets since winning re-election by nearly 20 points last week, and there are early signs that Republican voters are taking notice.According to a Politico/Morning Consult poll taken in the days after polls closed, 33% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they would support DeSantis if the 2024 primary were held today, up from 26% just before election day.But the same poll reflected Trump’s enduring sway with Republican voters, as 47% of respondents said they would support the former president if the primary were held now. After Trump confirmed he would attempt to recapture the White House in 2024, some of his loudest critics begrudgingly acknowledged he is likely to win the Republican nomination again.Despite the challenge ahead, those same critics voiced confidence that Americans would again go to the polls in large numbers to deliver Trump a second defeat.“He’s back. He’ll win the GOP primary,” said Rick Wilson, a former Republican strategist and cofounder of the anti-Trump group the Lincoln Project. “Only 721 days til election day 2024. We beat him before, together. We can beat him again, together.”TopicsDonald TrumpRepublicansUS politicsanalysisReuse this content More

AnalysisTrump plays the ousted autocrat struggling to recapture past gloryDavid Smith in Palm Beach, Florida Ex-president appears over the hill at 2024 announcement to an enthusiastic – but dwindling – group of loyalistsFrom plastering his name on buildings to hiring his own children, from salivating over military parades to savaging the media, from befriending fellow strongmen to defying the will of the people, Donald Trump has done much to invite comparisons with autocrats.On Tuesday he continued to play that role to perfection. Only now he was the ousted dictator, drained of power and surrounded by a dwindling band of loyalists in his last redoubt, the opulent Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. As a rule, the grander the palace, the weaker the man.Rightwing media’s coverage of Trump’s presidential bid shows they just can’t turn awayRead moreTo raucous cheers and shrill whistles, the 45th president of the United States announced his intention to become the 47th “in order to make America great and glorious again”. Never before has someone launched a run for the White House in the shadow of so many scandals and criminal investigations. And never before – perhaps! – has Trump been so vulnerable within the Republican party.If he hoped that this hour-long speech would silence the doubters and regain the patronage of media mogul Rupert Murdoch, he will surely be disappointed. The Trump who took the stage seemed an ageing champ returning to centre court only to find he’s holding a wooden racket.In an attempt to appear “presidential” – something that America previously spent four years waiting for in vain – he delivered the kind of low energy performance for which he used to mock Jeb Bush (thus Jeb Bush Jr wrote on Twitter: “WOW! What a low energy speech by the Donald. Time for new leaders! #WEAK #SleepyDonnie”).Here was the spectacle of a man who is over the hill, chasing past glories and raging against the dying of the right. “Just as I promised in 2016, I am your voice,” he told guests, but it did not seem to strike the same chord as six years ago.David Axelrod, a former strategist for Barack Obama, tweeted: “Weird performance. Either he was advised to tone it down or he’s just depressed about all the pounding he’s taken in the past week for the GOP’s performance.”Trump’s long-trailed declaration came just a week after many of his endorsed candidates flopped in the midterm elections, following similar rebukes in 2018 and 2020. Millions of people sent a message that they are sick of the lies, the hate and the conspiracy theories. Whatever he was selling in the midterms, people were no longer buying.Naturally, he did not accept this premise, claiming that he had notched 232 wins and suffered only 21 losses and not been given due credit. “I’m not going to use the term fake news; we’re going to keep it very elegant,” he said. Claiming prematurely that Republicans had just regained a majority in the House of Representatives, he added gleefully: “Nancy Pelosi has been fired!” The crowd of several hundred guests erupted.Trump also embarked on a meandering speculation that “the citizens of our country haven’t realised the full gravity of the pain our nation is going through, and the total effect of the suffering is just starting to take hold”.But, come 2024, they may and act accordingly. The speech felt unlikely to persuade Murdoch’s media outlets or Republican donors now openly flirting with Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, who offers a cleaner, crisper form of Trumpism.Trump steered clear of his “Ron DeSanctimonius” moniker this time but repeated his 2016 claim that America’s malaise calls for an outsider, not a politician (he spoke of “the festering rot of corruption in Washington DC”, prompting crowd chants of “Drain the swamp! Drain the swamp!”). The difference, this time, is that the US knows what four years of Trump in the Oval Office means – two impeachments and an experiment in American carnage.A primary between Trump, DeSantis and possibly Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo and others threatens to be a Republican Lord of the Flies. Trump would start with the disadvantage of multiple federal, state and congressional investigations hanging over him. Maybe he thinks, probably erroneously, that becoming a presidential candidate will shield him from the justice department.Mar-a-Lago itself is allegedly a crime scene: it was here, on the plush 20-acre estate, that Trump stored hundreds of classified documents that should have been given to the National Archives (he has claimed that he could declassify them just by thinking about it).Trump declared Mar-a-Lago his permanent residence in 2019 and has reportedly turned into an unlikely DJ there, with his signature tune being the Village People’s YMCA. As a backdrop to Tuesday’s announcement, it nodded to Trump’s perceived status as a “blue-collar billionaire” – if I can live the American dream, you can too.Oh how Donald Trump has fallen | Cas MuddeRead moreHe delivered his address surrounded by 33 US national flags and elaborate Corinthian-style columns, beneath a ceiling of 16 crystal chandeliers and elaborate gold leaf decoration. The walls boasted mounted faux candelabra and giant Versailles-style mirrors. Giant TV screens proclaimed in white on blue: “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! TEXT TRUMP TO 88022. DONALDJTRUMP.COM.”There were chants of “Trump! Trump! Trump!” and shouts of “We love you!” from hundreds of invited guests sitting or standing on the marble floor – some of them Maga diehards with the suits and red hats to prove it, some the Florida nouveau riche with the tans and jewels to prove it. At least four men wore leather jackets emblazoned with “Bikers for Trump”.Beforehand, Mike Lindell, the My Pillow guy, had prowled the room looking for reporters to berate about his fantastical conspiracy theories about voting machines. Loudspeakers boomed the Trump golden oldies, just as they do at his rallies: Johnny Cash, Elton John, Elvis Presley, Dolly Parton, the Rolling Stones, Dusty Springfield, Frank Sinatra (“And now, the end is near/ And so I face the final curtain”).Then, bizarrely, came a deafening roar of Do You Hear the People Sing? from the musical Les Misérables and the more tried and trusted “God Bless the USA” by Lee Greenwood.Once Trump had confirmed his candidacy he warmed up a little, railing against Joe Biden for spurious reasons and reeling off some half-baked policies. Still not quite able to let go of 2020, despite the horrors of January 6 and the repudiation of election deniers last week, he declared: “To eliminate cheating, I will immediately demand voter ID, same day voting and only paper ballots.” This crowd loved it.The former first lady Melania Trump appeared smiling at the former president’s side at the end. But there was no sign of his son and Maga champion Donald Jr or daughter Ivanka, who issued a statement saying she is now staying out of politics. On the night of his great comeback, Trump, like King Lear, had been silently rebuked by his favorite, an absence that suggested: let it go.TopicsDonald TrumpThe US politics sketchRepublicansUS elections 2024US politicsanalysisReuse this content More

We can’t be lulled into a false sense of security. Trumpism is far from overFrancine ProseTo ‘move on’ from Trumpism, is to fall victim to the dangerous historical amnesia to which Americans seem so susceptible In the general relief that has followed the midterm elections, we’ve been hearing that Donald Trump is losing his grip on the Republican party and that his popularity with the electorate has waned. The evidence seems clear: most, if not all, of the candidates he backed in crucial political races were defeated, as were the far-right extremists and the 2020 election deniers.Trump announces 2024 run nearly two years after inspiring deadly Capitol riotRead moreIt’s hard not to be cheered by the indications that the country hasn’t entirely lost its collective mind. But to “move on” from Trumpism, to view his regime as an aberration, a four-year mistake, is to fall victim to the dangerous historical amnesia to which Americans seem so susceptible.Even as we celebrate Trump’s failure to push Dr Oz to victory in Pennsylvania, we need to remember what our 45th president did, how effectively and recklessly he tapped into and unleashed our dark side, and the wellsprings of cruelty and hatred. We need to recall the broken-marionette twitches with which he mocked a disabled journalist and encouraged the crowd to laugh, his leading the chants demanding that Hillary Clinton be incarcerated – and his speech inciting his supporters to punish Mike Pence for refusing to decertify the 2020 election.Surely I’m not the only person who remembers the night when teams of immigration lawyers rushed to New York’s JFK airport because Trump had just called for all Muslims to be prohibited from entering the country, or the vicious nicknames he invented for his enemies and opponents, or his refusal to condemn the neo-Nazis who marched in Charlottesville. We are still mourning the thousands who died needlessly after Trump politicized a virus. We haven’t had time to forget how close his policies – and his spirit – have edged our democracy to the brink of extinction, and few of us feel certain that, even now, we are safe and in the clear.But just in case we’d forgotten any of that, just in case we’d persuaded ourselves that our Donald Trump problem is over, Trump’s announcement of his intention to run for president in 2024 brought it all back. The boasting and lying haven’t stopped. He claimed to have “taken decisive action” against Covid-19, to have more or less single-handedly defeated Isis, to have brokered a deal compelling Central America to take back deported gang members, and (despite the facts still fresh in our minds ) to have scored huge successes in helping elect candidates in the midterm elections.Who’s next? Republicans who might go up against Trump in 2024Read moreIt was painful to be reminded of the characteristically wild and inflammatory hyperbole (our cities, he claimed, are “cesspools of blood”), the vindictive attacks on the FBI and the Department of Justice, the winking reference to Barack Hussein Obama, and the racism and jingoism, the hatred of immigrants conveyed in his warnings about the “hundreds of millions” of criminal “savages” crossing our border for “a bad and sinister reason”. Once more, we heard his smarmy mocking of our concerns about the environment and the future of the planet, his derision of “the socialist disaster known as the green new deal”, his suggestion that we expand our mining for coal and drilling for fossil fuels.Meanwhile he seemed to have found some harsh new notes to sound. He suggested that drug dealers be summarily executed following the “quick trials” that work so well in China, that congressional term limits be abolished, that voting be made more difficult, that critical race theory and “gender insanity” be banned from the schools, that “parental rights” be upheld and that trans rights – which he characterized as “men playing women’s sports” – be weakened or abolished.It was all too familiar – and disturbing. When he spoke of reclaiming the “corridors of power”, it was hard not to think of the insurrectionists surging through the corridors of the US Capitol. And at moments it did feel as if he were reprising the tone and substance of the January 6 address – the appeal to take back our country – that sent his loyal followers on their destructive course. In a speech that lasted over an hour, less than a minute was spent promising to bring the country together; the rest of the time was devoted to inspiring an even greater divisiveness, a sharper awareness of difference, of the gap between “us” and “them”.But perhaps the most upsetting thing was Trump’s hammering insistence on the “fact” that America has been all but irreparably broken by the “radical left trying to destroy our country from within”. That was the theme that emerged most often as he spoke: our country is a “laughing stock”, a nation in “disarray” and “ruin” – a historical catastrophe from which he alone has been sent to save us.If we think we’ve heard it before, it’s because we have – long before Donald Trump entered the political arena. It’s the rhetoric of fascism and authoritarianism, the idea of a country that has been undermined, sabotaged and stabbed in the back, and that can only be rescued from certain destruction by the intercession of a dictator.
Francine Prose is a former president of Pen American Center and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Letters and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences
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Oh how Donald Trump has fallenCas MuddeJust a few months ago, it was received wisdom that the Republican nomination was his for the taking. Now, that’s not the case He is running! In the least surprising news of the year, a low-energy Donald Trump announced that he is running for president again last night. The speech itself was also predictable, hitting the traditional authoritarian and nativist favorites. We heard about the “invasion” at the border and “radical Democrats” in the White House, all spiced up with the usual combination of self-complimenting anecdotes and self-serving lies that we have come to expect from the former president.Trump announces 2024 run nearly two years after inspiring deadly Capitol riotRead moreWhat was much more interesting was the almost complete absence of prominent Republicans in Mar-a-Lago and even the lukewarm interest of the US media. At various channels, journalists were “analyzing” Trump’s run while the former president was giving his speech on mute in the background. Even Fox News’s Sean Hannity cut into the speech after a little over half an hour.How the mighty have fallen. Just a few months ago, it was received wisdom that the Republican nomination was his for the taking. After Tuesday’s uninspiring announcement, none of his competitors will feel intimidated. In fact, already before the announcement, Mike Pompeo, secretary of state under Trump, said the announcement would not change his own decision to run. Taking a clear swipe at his former boss, he said: “We need leaders that are looking forward, not staring in the rear-view mirror claiming victimhood.” Similar sentiments were expressed by other prominent Republicans, such as South Dakota senator John Thune.These responses are very much in line with the dominant Republican narrative on the midterm elections, ie that they were lost because of Trump. Calls for a “post-Trump” Republican party have come from all sides of the party and right-wing media system for days now. For the moment, Florida governor Ron DeSantis is the favorite to bring the Grand Old Party back to “normal”. To be clear, this “normal” party is both Trumpian and post-Trump, because most Republicans, both the politicians and the voters, agree with Mike Simpson, Republican representative from Idaho, who said: “I think his policies were good. I just don’t need all the drama with it.”The question is, however, can anyone beat Trump in the primaries? It is true that the star of the former president was already waning among the Republican faithful before the midterms. Just under half of Republican primary voters (48%) said they would support Trump in the 2024 primaries. And while DeSantis’s star was already rising before the midterms, he was still only at half of Trump’s support level (26%). Since then, anti-Trump conservative groups have been flooding the media with new polls that show that DeSantis has already overtaken Trump as the new favorite.Rightwing media’s coverage of Trump’s presidential bid shows it just can’t turn awayRead moreAs Florida governor, DeSantis has tried to stay out of the hair of his state’s most famous, and quick-tempered, inhabitant. Although he has picked up largely the same issues, his claim to fame as a culture warrior is more based on state policies than national speeches. As a local politician, DeSantis did not pose a threat to Trump’s ambitions. But as a competitor for the 2024 Republican nomination, this will change and, knowing Trump, he will go all out. In fact, he has already started using a nickname, “Ron De-Sanctimonious”, and both he and his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, have made thinly-veiled threats.The key problem of the Republican party is that Trump does not care about “his” party. He does not even really care about being president again. Trump must run to stay out of jail. That is why all the media speculation about whether he has announced too early is silly. The former president is facing an onslaught of legal cases, on a broad variety of issues – mishandling of classified documents, insurrection, and tax fraud – for which he needs a lot of money and political coverage. As a mere citizen, even as a former president, he holds much less leverage than as a primary candidate, who may not be able to win the presidency for the Republican party but is probably still strong enough to lose it for them.It is paradoxical that the midterms, in which he didn’t run, did to Trump what the 2020 presidential elections, which he lost, could not do: make him into the one thing he despises the most: a loser. And although his ideas live on in the Republican party, he himself has been deemed toxic by that same party. This is particularly ironic, as Trump himself was never interested in the ideas, just in himself.
Cas Mudde is a Guardian US columnist and the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor in the school of public and international affairs at the University of Georgia
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Donald Trump announces 2024 run for president nearly two years after inspiring deadly Capitol riotTwice-impeached ex-president makes expected election announcement despite shaky midterms and surge from rival Ron DeSantis00:52Donald Trump on Tuesday night announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, likely sparking another period of tumult in US politics and especially his own political party.“In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,” Trump said from ballroom of his private Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, where he stood on a stage crowded with American flags and Make America Great Again banners.Vowing to defeat Joe Biden in 2024, he declared: “America’s golden age is just ahead.”The long-expected announcement by a twice-impeached president who incited a deadly attack on Congress seems guaranteed to deepen a stark partisan divide that has fueled fears of increased political violence.Who’s next? Republicans who might go up against Trump in 2024Read moreBut it also comes as Trump’s standing in the Republican party has suddenly been put into question. Trump spoke at Mar-a-Lago a week after midterm elections in which his Republican party did not make expected gains, losing the Senate and seeming on course for only a narrow majority in the US House.In his remarks, Trump took credit for Republicans’ performance victory in the House, even though they are poised to capture a far narrower majority than anticipated. “Nancy Pelosi has been fired. Isn’t that nice?” he said. The Associated Press has not yet projected which party will win the majority.In a party hitherto dominated by Trump, defeats suffered by high-profile, Trump-endorsed candidates led to open attacks on the former president and calls to delay his announcement or not to run at all. As Trump’s standing has slipped, Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, has surged into strong contention after sailing to reelection last week.Trump’s announcement also coincided on Tuesday with the release of Mike Pence’s memoir, So Help Me God, in which the ex-president’s once-faithful lieutenant criticizes him for his conduct on January 6. The former vice-president is also maneuvering toward a possible 2024 run despite falling out of favor with the Maga base.Brushing past Republican setbacks in 2022 and his defeat in 2020, Trump insisted that he was the only candidate who could deliver a Republican victory in 2024.“This is not a task for a politician or a conventional candidate,” he said. “This is a task for a great movement.”His third candidacy comes as he faces intensifying legal troubles, including investigations by the justice department into the removal of hundreds of classified documents from the White House to his Florida estate and into his role in the 6 January attack. Trump has denied wrongdoing and used the attacks to further his narrative that he has been unfairly targeted by his political opponents and a shadowy “deep state” bureaucracy.“I’m a victim,” Trump said, making reference to the Russia investigation and the raid on his Mar-a-Lago estate. On Tuesday, Trump nevertheless pressed forward with his run.Painting a bleak portrait of the United States, with “blood-soaked” city streets and an “invasion” at the southern border, Trump said his campaign was a “quest to save our country.”In the less than two years since Biden took office, a period Trump referred to as “the pause”, he accused his successor of inflicting “pain, hardship, anxiety and despair” with his economic and domestic policies.Trump offered an alternative vision, which he called the “national greatness agenda”. Among the policy proposals he endorsed on Tuesday were the death penalty for drug dealers, term limits for members of Congress and planting an American flag on Mars. And wading into the social fights he enjoys inflaming, Trump promised to protect “paternal rights” and keep transgender athletes from competing in women’s sports.Though he made no explicit mention of his stolen-election lies, he promised to overhaul the nation’s voting laws, vowing that a winner would be declared on election night. In close contests, it can take several days before enough votes are tabulated in a state to project a winner, but Trump and his allies have seized on the delay to spread baseless conspiracy theories about results.Despite promising to deliver remarks as “elegant” as the gold-plated room he was standing in, Trump’s rambling, hourlong speech turned to name-calling and ridicule, lashing the “fake news”, mocking the former German chancellor Angela Merkel’s accent and accusing Biden of “falling asleep” at international conferences. At one point, he appeared to confuse the civil war with the reconstruction period that followed and scoffed at climate science.Without acknowledging his 2020 defeat, Trump insisted that beating Biden in 2024 would be much easier because “everybody sees what a bad job has been done.”He called Biden the “face of left-wing failure and government corruption” and accused him of worsening inflation and “surrendering” America’s energy independence. He also slammed the administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan as “the most embarrassing moment in the history of our country”.“Our country is being destroyed before your very eyes,” he said, casting his four years in office as a glowing success, despite leaving behind a nation shaken by disease and political turmoil.Now 76, Trump was long seen as a colorful if controversial presence in American life, a thrice-married New York real-estate mogul, reality TV star and tabloid fixture who flirted with politics but never committed.But in 2015, after finding a niche as a prominent voice for rightwing opposition to Barack Obama – and a racist conspiracy theory about Obama’s birth – Trump entered the race for the Republican nomination to succeed the 44th president.Proving immune to scandal, whether over personal conduct, allegations of sexual assault or persistent courting of the far right, he obliterated a huge Republican field then pulled off a historic shock by beating the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, in the 2016 election.Trump’s presidency was chaotic but undoubtedly historic. Senate Republicans playing political and constitutional hardball helped install three supreme court justices, cementing a dominant rightwing majority which has now removed the right to abortion and weakened gun control laws while eyeing further significant change.Trump is running for president again – but these legal battles might stand in the wayRead moreTrump’s third supreme court pick, replacing the liberal justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg with Amy Coney Barrett, a hardline Catholic, came shortly before the 2020 election. That contest, with Obama’s vice-president, Joe Biden, was fought under the shadow of protests for racial justice and the coronavirus pandemic, the latter a test badly mishandled by Trump’s administration as hundreds of thousands died.Trump was conclusively beaten, Biden racking up more than 7m more votes and the same electoral college win, 306-232, that Trump enjoyed over Clinton, a victory Trump then called a landslide.But Trump’s refusal to accept defeat, based on his “big lie” about electoral fraud, fueled election subversion efforts in key states, the deadly January 6 attack on the US Capitol by supporters and far-right groups, a second impeachment for inciting that insurrection (and a second acquittal, if with more Republican defections) and a deepening crisis of US democracy.01:41With a third White House bid, Trump hopes to defy political history. Only one former president, Grover Cleveland, has served two nonconsecutive terms. Cleveland was elected in 1884 and 1892, but, unlike Trump, he won the popular vote in the intervening election of 1888.Trump flirted with announcing a new run throughout Biden’s first two years in power, ultimately delaying until after midterm elections, which did not go as he or his party expected. But while high-profile backers of Trump’s stolen election myth were defeated, among them his choice for Arizona governor, Kari Lake, more than 170 were elected, according to the Washington Post.Until his midterms reversal, Trump dominated polling of potential Republican nominees for 2024. His closest rival in such surveys, DeSantis, reportedly indicated to donors he would not compete with Trump. But the landscape has now changed. DeSantis won re-election by a landslide, gave a confident victory speech to chants of “two more years” and has surged in polling – prompting attacks from Trump. At least one Republican mega donor, Ken Griffin, has said he backs the Florida governor.Should Trump dismiss DeSantis as he has so many other challengers and win the nomination, the 22nd amendment to the US constitution would bar him from running again in 2028. But a rematch of 2020 remains possible. Though Biden will soon turn 80 and has faced questions about whether he should seek a second term himself, he is preparing a re-election campaign.TopicsDonald TrumpUS elections 2024US politicsRepublicansRon DeSantisJoe BidenUS midterm elections 2022newsReuse this content More

Ivanka Trump says she will not be part of Donald’s 2024 campaignTrump skips father’s announcement and says she is prioritizing her family after serving as adviser during his presidency Ivanka Trump has decided to bow out of US politics and not actively join her father’s bid to retake the White House in 2024, saying she has chosen “to prioritize my young children and the private life we are creating as a family”.Donald Trump launched his 2024 bid for the Republican nomination on Tuesday night at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Members of his family, including his wife, Melania, and son Eric were present. Even Ivanka’s husband, Jared Kushner, was in attendance. But Ivanka was not.Trump announces 2024 run nearly two years after inspiring deadly Capitol riotRead moreIn a statement, Ivanka Trump said: “I love my father very much. This time around, I am choosing to prioritize my young children and the private life we are creating as a family. I do not plan to be involved in politics.”She added: “While I will always love and support my father, going forward I will do so outside the political arena. I am grateful to have had the honor of serving the American people and will always be proud of many of our administration’s accomplishments.”Ivanka Trump and Kushner played key roles in Trump’s administration and became a lightning rod for anger at many of its excesses, in part due to their previous lives as mainstays of Manhattan’s elite social scene, which is heavily Democratic.00:52Since Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020, Ivanka Trump and her family have moved to an expensive mansion in Florida.She recently testified before the January 6 committee, the special congressional panel investigating the insurrection at the US Capitol in 2021 in which extremist supporters of Trump attempted to overturn his election defeat.Ivanka Trump was with her father in the White House that day and is one of more than 800 witnesses the committee has interviewed. Congressman Bennie Thompson, the committee’s chairman, described her testimony as not “chatty” but helpful.TopicsIvanka TrumpUS politicsDonald TrumpRepublicansUS elections 2024newsReuse this content More

Trump is running for president again – but these legal battles might stand in the wayThe ex-president is entering the race bogged down with legal baggage that could derail his campaign00:52Donald Trump has announced his third run for president, a move likely to be as norm-shattering as his successful 2016 campaign.Donald Trump announces run for president in 2024Read moreBut a new twist is the sheer size and scale of the legal jeopardy that now surrounds him. Federal and state authorities are investigating Trump’s personal, political and financial conduct, and that of his business empire.How any indictment would affect Trump’s run remains unclear – he is experienced in fighting delaying actions in the courts and in using political or investigatory moves against him as fuel to fire up his base.Here’s where things stand.January 6The House committee investigating the Capitol attack, which Trump incited, has not issued its final report. But its seven Democrats and two Republicans have laid out in detail Trump’s conduct after election day and around the assault on Congress. The committee has served Trump with a subpoena. Trump had a deadline of 14 November to respond, then filed suit to avoid having to do so. Committee members have indicated they do not expect to make a criminal referral to the justice department.Should Republicans retake the House, as expected, the committee can expect to be shuttered. But the justice department’s January 6 investigation goes on. It has produced charges, convictions and sentences for people who took part in the attack. Trials of far-right figures have produced evidence of links to the White House. But as yet, the investigation has shown no public sign of reaching Trump himself. That said, a quickening has been reported, subpoenas reaching Trump advisers. Notionally, the attorney general, Merrick Garland, has until 2024 to indict Trump.Election subversionThe justice department is also investigating Trump’s legal and political scheming to overturn results in key states or to block certification, on which the House committee has shed considerable light.As in the investigation of the Capitol attack, federal investigators are working their way up the ladder. In September, after news of subpoenas to Trump allies and advisers, David Laufman, a former federal prosecutor, echoed a famous phrase from the Watergate scandal which brought down Richard Nixon when he told CNN: “They’re encompassing individuals closer and closer to the president, to learn more and more about what the president knew and when he knew it.”Earlier in November, when it was widely reported Trump would announce his run after the midterm elections, it was also reported that federal officials were trying to decide if there would be a need for a special counsel.Such an official would be independent of justice department leadership, perhaps a necessary step if investigations produce an indictment of a former president, a move which would be unprecedented even if Trump were not trying to return to power.Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election is not under investigation only in Washington. Fani Willis, the district attorney of Fulton county, Georgia, is investigating Trump’s attempt to overturn his defeat in that state. A grand jury has been seated and search warrants applied for. High-ranking officials have testified. A key Trump ally in the Senate, Lindsey Graham, has tried to avoid doing so. Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s personal attorney, has testified and been informed he is a target. Again, investigators are working their way towards Trump.White House recordsWhen he left the presidency, Trump took with him hundreds of items and documents, many classified, some reportedly concerning top-secret matters. He has claimed to have done nothing wrong and to be the victim of a witch-hunt, particularly after the FBI searched his Florida home.Earlier in November, the Guardian reported that a close adviser, Kash Patel, had been granted limited immunity to testify about Trump’s claim the documents were declassified. As well as facing indictment just for keeping the records, Trump could be indicted for obstructing the investigation with such claims.This week, the Guardian reported that Trump “retained documents bearing classification markings, along with communications from after his presidency”, according to court filings describing the materials seized by the FBI – a finding that “could amount to evidence Trump willfully retained documents marked classified”.Trump OrganizationIn New York, Trump faces criminal and civil lawsuits concerning his business activities.On the last day of October, opening the criminal case, Susan Hoffinger of the Manhattan district attorney’s office said: “This case is about greed and cheating – cheating on taxes.” The key witness is Allen Weisselberg, the former Trump Organization chief financial officer, who has pleaded guilty to 15 counts of tax fraud.The civil case was brought by Letitia James, the Democratic state attorney general. Announcing the case, James said Trump “falsely inflated his net worth by billions of dollars to unjustly enrich himself and to cheat the system, thereby cheating all of us. He did this with the help of the other defendants.” They are Trump’s first three adult children: Donald Jr, Ivanka and Eric.James is seeking stringent penalties including barring all four Trumps from serving as executives in New York, and stopping the Trump Organization acquiring any commercial real estate or receiving loans from state entities for five years.Trump has filed a countersuit, alleging a “relentless, pernicious, public and unapologetic crusade” against him. He has also called James racist. The New York Times reported that Trump’s own lawyers tried to talk him out of the suit.Defamation caseThe writer E Jean Carroll said Trump raped her in a department store changing room in New York in the 1990s. Trump denied it and said Carroll is “not my type”. That and other remarks prompted a defamation suit in which Trump was deposed in October. The question of whether Trump is shielded because he made his remarks while president – a claim initiated by his own justice department – is working its way through the appeals system.That could kill the defamation suit. But Carroll has said she also intends to use a New York law which allows alleged sexual assault victims to sue even if the statute of limitations has expired.TopicsDonald TrumpUS politicsRepublicansfeaturesReuse this content More