US Politics

Trump and Elon Musk are dangerous narcissists tailored to 2022 AmericaRobert ReichWe’re better off when people like them cannot gain such untrammeled wealth and influence. Our politics is the worst for it We likely won’t know all the results of America’s midterm election for a while, but consider two people not on any ballot who are setting the tenor for much of what we have heard and seen.First is Elon Musk, who last Friday fired half of Twitter’s 7,500 employees, including teams devoted to combating election misinformation – and did it so haphazardly and arbitrarily that most had no idea they were fired until their email accounts were shut off.This was after he fired Twitter’s executives to avoid paying them the golden parachutes they’re owed. And after posting an article suggesting without evidence that Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, was in a drunken fight with a male prostitute.It has been a long 10 days since Musk bought Twitter.But this has been his MO all along.Taunting opponents. Treating employees like dung. Bullying adversaries. Demeaning critics. Craving attention. Refusing to be held accountable. Attracting millions of followers and gaining cult status. Spreading misleading information. Making gobs of money.Impetuous. Unpredictable. Ruthless. Autocratic. Vindictive.Remind you of anyone?Musk is not exactly Donald Trump. They’re different generations, possess different skills, occupy different roles in the bizarre firmament of modern America. And Trump is far more dangerous to democracy – so far.But both represent the emergence of a particularly American personality in the early decades of the 21st century: the wildly disruptive narcissist.Both wield sledgehammers to protect their fragile egos. Both are utterly lacking in empathy. Both push baseless conspiracy theories (such as the one cooked up about Paul Pelosi).Both are indefatigable self-promoters.Both are billionaires, but they are not motivated primarily by money. Nor are they fueled by any larger purpose, principle or ideology.Their singular goal is to imprint their giant egos on everyone else – to exercise raw power over people. To make others grovel.Their politics is neither conservative nor liberal. Call it megalomaniacal authoritarian. (It seems likely Musk will give Trump back the giant Twitter megaphone Trump lost when he incited the attack on the US Capitol.)But why have both achieved such prominence at this point in history? Why are so many enthralled with them?The answer, I think, is that a large segment of the American public projects its needs and fantasies on them. People who are “mad as hell and not going to take it anymore” crave strongmen who shake up the system.People who have been bullied their whole lives want to identify with super bullies who give the finger to the establishment, answerable to only their own ravenous egos.Their arrogance and certitude attract millions of followers, fans, and cultish devotees, along with a fair number of goons and thugs, who want to vicariously feel superior.But they are not leaders. They are bullies who demean America.Others aspire to the same status – Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who flies undocumented immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who blames wildfires on Jewish space lasers. Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who refuses to commit to the outcome of the election. And the other infamous high-tech zillionaires, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg.Yet none comes close to Musk and Trump for sheer in-your-facedness, gleeful bombast and the brazen assertion of power to dominate and force others to submit.Beware. The last time the world gave in to megalomaniacs it did not end well.The robber barons of the Gilded Age – men like William (“the public be damned”) Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie and John D Rockefeller – siphoned off so much of the nation’s wealth that the rest of the nation had to go deep into debt to maintain their standard of living and overall demand for the goods and services the nation produced.When that debt bubble burst in 1929, the world got a Great Depression. And that depression paved the way for Benito Mussolini, Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler, who created the worst threats to freedom and democracy the modern world had ever witnessed, and the most deaths.We are much safer when economic and political power is widely diffused. We are better off when people like Musk and Trump cannot gain such untrammeled wealth and influence.We all do better when fewer Americans feel so helpless and insecure that they’re drawn to reprehensible bullies who parade across the public stage as if possessing admirable qualities.
Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His new book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com
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The future of American democracy is at stake in the midterm electionsAndrew GawthorpeThe majority of the Republican candidates for the House of Representatives are election-deniers – and a Republican-controlled Congress might attempt to sabotage the certification of the next presidential vote Midterm elections are generally seen as less important than presidential elections. The stakes seem lower, which means fewer people turn out to vote. Most of the time the party controlling the White House takes losses, and this predictability can make midterms seem less important too: what can one voter do against the strength of the political tides? But occasionally there are midterms whose stakes rise beyond whether or not the president’s party will be able to pass new laws, and instead concern the whole future of the American republic. This year is one of them.Is Herschel Walker the worst candidate the Republicans have ever run? | Jill FilipovicRead moreThat’s because this year, the majority of Republican candidates running for Congress, governor’s mansions, and other key statewide offices have denied or questioned the results of the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump’s attempted coup failed in 2020 because officeholders at the federal and state level refused to go along with it. This year’s midterm elections could change all of that, producing a set of Republican officials willing to extinguish American democracy.There have been several other midterms in American history which foreshadowed chaos and violence to come. In 1858, the anti-slavery Republican party won a plurality in the House of Representatives, exacerbating the divisions which would lead to the civil war. In 1874, the Democratic party won a massive majority in the House, which turned out to be enormously consequential amid the contested election of 1876. In return for not attempting to block the inauguration of the Republican candidate Rutherford B Hayes, House Democrats demanded the withdrawal of federal troops from the south, ending Reconstruction.Both of these midterms were momentous, but they also differed from our present situation. Abraham Lincoln’s election in 1860 rent the Union, but nobody doubted that he had been legitimately elected president. On the other hand, widespread violence and fraud meant that the election of 1876 was genuinely contested, and even today the question of “who really won?” is difficult to answer. The end of Reconstruction had horrific consequences for African Americans in the south, but the basic institution of competitive elections lived on, and with it the possibility for future change.Never before in American history has there been an organized movement which was only one vote away from having the motivation and opportunity to make that election America’s last. Never that is, until now. Today’s anti-democratic movement is propelled not by genuine controversy or scandal, but rather by their commitment to ending competitive elections in the United States. There is no other way to interpret their belief that only one side, the Republicans, can legitimately be considered to win, and the plans that they hold to make this belief a reality.The problems can be expected to start this November, when Republican candidates who lose will question the validity of the results and try to stir unrest. State officials who do win will begin to act on their plans to sabotage future polls by centralizing power in their own offices, de-registering millions of voters, and moving to error-prone hand-counting systems. Then, if voter suppression doesn’t prevent a Democratic win in 2024, they’ll just suppress the evidence instead and announce that they are sending Republican electors to the electoral college. Meanwhile, the majority of Republican House candidates in 2022 are election-deniers, and a Republican-controlled Congress might attempt to sabotage the certification of the presidential vote on 6 January 2025.Each of these potential points of failure threatens the integrity of the 2024 presidential election. The breadth and depth of the anti-democratic movement also means that they are likely to pose other problems which are difficult to anticipate. Whatever means they find of sabotaging the vote, it would be foolish to rely on the conservative-dominated supreme court to stop them, particularly if the country has been plunged into civil unrest and violence.That’s why measures like reforming the Electoral Count Act, something which Congress may take up in the lame duck session after the midterms, are not enough. Legal tinkering can only go so far in the face of a dedicated movement, especially if it is willing to go outside the law and provoke violence on the streets. The only thing that can avert an impending crisis is to keep Republican party’s election saboteurs out of office. Yet the Democratic party has decided to largely fight the midterms on other issues which they think motivate voters more effectively. And while it’s true that very few voters do identify threats to democracy as the most important issue facing the country, this is partly down to a failure of Democrats and the media to communicate just how bad things might get.At least part of Democrats’ closing message in these elections must be dedicated to changing that. Voters need to understand that the threat to democracy is very real, and that bad choices this year could lead to complete breakdown in 2024. It might be impossible to stitch the national fabric back together or to return to free, competitive, reliable elections afterwards. Democracy is not some arcane or marginal topic but is at the very heart of America’s ability to undo its mistakes and move forwards as a nation. That makes these the most important midterms in American history. It’s way past time to communicate the stakes clearly.
Andrew Gawthorpe is a historian of the United States at Leiden University and host of the podcast America Explained
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The US made women second-class citizens. Now we must give a stinging rebukeMoira DoneganThe supreme court edict overturning Roe v Wade said women are ‘not without electoral and political power’. That feels almost like a dare Organized feminism has been on the decline in the US since the 1980s, with the radicalism of the second wave giving way to a more diffuse, less focused feminist movement consisting of NGOs, campus activists, online discourse and HR inclusion initiatives. In a way, this is normal. Students of the movement have long spoken of feast and fallow years for feminism, eruptions of activism that are followed by long and virulent backlashes.But feminism has perhaps never received such a dramatic and immediate setback as it did this June. The supreme court’s decision in Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization undid the major legal achievement of the second wave era, reversing Roe v Wade and ending the constitutional right to an abortion.The result has been chaos, with so-called “trigger bans” blasting into enforcement in some states, long-dormant laws from before the era of women’s suffrage being revived in others and still other states left in limbo, as abortion flickers in and out of legality, depending on the proclivities of whichever judge is determining whichever injunction. Children and teens who are pregnant as a result of incest, rape or exploitation are now forced to travel across state lines for abortions, because they live in states where a fetus or embryo is valued more highly than their own health and potential. Women whose pregnancies are doomed are forced to wait, carrying fetuses they know will not live, or to slowly bleed out their miscarriages until either the fetus dies or they go septic.There’s an incalculable amount of cruelty now being forced on pregnant women, and there’s also an insidious kind of debasement being imposed on all women, pregnant or not. Millions of American women and trans people are now living in states where their lives are not their own, where an unplanned pregnancy can derail their educations, careers or plans, where they must live under the indignity of the knowledge that the state can compel them to give birth. That injury is not the kind of acute horror story that we see coming out of states where bans are now in effect. But it is an injury that has been done to each and every woman in America.This indignity is political. For the past five decades, during the Roe era, American women were endowed with a basic level of respect by the right to abortion. They could not be forced to carry a pregnancy to term; their bodies, at least on paper, were their own. This principle lent women a sense of worth and equality under the law, the sense that the freedoms and responsibilities of self-determination and self-respect – of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness – so revered in the American tradition were theirs, too. The idea was that women were made, by Roe, into full citizens – not members of some lesser class needing monitoring or protection, but equal participants in the American project.This idea was so powerful and potent to American women’s identity that it did not matter what the reality of Roe was. It did not matter that the decision itself was built on legal reasoning about a right to privacy, instead of a more secure, more honest reasoning about equality; it did not matter that the supreme court had never recognized American women as having their own individual right to reject pregnancy. Over the 49 years of its existence, Roe became more than just the 1973 court decision and its logic. It became a symbol, a shorthand for the baseline preconditions of women’s full citizenship.Dobbs erased both the law and the symbol. Women no longer have a constitutional right to an abortion, and we no longer have the dignity that that right gave us. We are now, in many states, subject to laws that criminalize and surveil us, that assess our needs for medical care based on whether we are suffering enough to deserve it, that in many cases treat blobs of tissue, laughably far from anything human, as having rights and interests that trump our own. In one of the most intimate and life-defining aspects of our existence, we find ourselves not quite treated as adults, not allowed to make our own choices, not trusted to know our own interests and not valued in our own right. In pregnancy, women are now less citizens than they are subjects.In his majority opinion ending the constitutional right to abortion, Samuel Alito asserts that he’s not hurting women on the basis of their sex at all, that he is merely handing the issue “back to the states”, as if any state law banning or restricting abortion did not inherently make women less equal. But Alito asserted that women who did not like the Dobbs decision could simply vote to reverse its effects in their own states, and hope that a majority of other voters agreed with them that they should be full citizens with self-determination. “Women are not without electoral or political power,” Alito said, perhaps somewhat regretfully. If they didn’t like the status of second-class citizenship to which his ruling had consigned them, why didn’t they simply vote themselves out of it? Maybe we will. During the midterm elections, American women can vote en masse to restore reproductive freedom.Of course, voting will not be sufficient to restore abortion rights and women’s full citizenship in America. For that, we will need a revival of an organized and radical feminist movement, committed to local engagement, long-term relationship – and institution-building and direct action. The seeds of that movement are already beginning to germinate in the local abortion funds, clandestine mutual-aid efforts and grassroots mobilizations that have helped fill the well of need in the wake of Dobbs. And of course, voting is not easy for everyone – it has been made less easy, and less meaningful, by the actions of the same supreme court.But the midterm elections represent an immediate opportunity for American women to exercise that political power of which Alito spoke. The elections can preserve Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, which can stave off Republican ambitions to ban abortion nationwide; if the majorities are large enough, they may even be able to fulfill Joe Biden’s promise to reinstate Roe by statute. Voting for Democratic governors, attorneys general and state legislators can blunt or reverse the impact of state abortion bans and misogynist laws: a local election, for many women voters, means a choice between a district attorney who will prosecute patients and providers of abortions, and one who will not.Alito’s whole opinion drips with contempt, but the line about American women – that we are “not without electoral and political power” – felt like a dare. American women do have power, perhaps more than Samuel Alito realizes. It’s time to call his bluff.
Moira Donegan is a Guardian US columnist
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Midterm elections: the candidates who will make history if they winElections could usher in a younger and more diverse Congress in the House and governor’s mansions across the US American voters will head to the polls on Tuesday to cast ballots in the crucial midterm elections, and a number of candidates will make history if they prevail in their races.In particular, the departure of 46 members from the House of Representatives has created an opening for a new class of young and diverse candidates to seek federal office.Two House candidates, Democrat Maxwell Frost of Florida and Republican Karoline Leavitt of New Hampshire, would become the first Gen Z members of Congress if they win their elections. Leavitt would also set a record as the youngest woman ever elected to Congress if she can defeat Democrat Chris Pappas in their hotly contested race, which is considered a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.In Vermont, Democrat Becca Balint is favored to win her House race, which would make her the first woman and the first openly LGBTQ+ politician to represent the state in Congress. If Balint wins, all 50 US states will have sent at least one woman to Congress, as Vermont became the sole outlier on that metric in 2018.Some House races will even make history regardless of which party’s candidate prevails. In New York’s third congressional district, either Democrat Robert Zimmerman or Republican George Devolder-Santos will become the first openly gay person to represent Long Island in the House.As Republicans look to take back the House, their playbook has relied upon nominating a diverse slate of candidates in battleground districts that will probably determine control of the lower chamber. The strategy builds upon the party’s momentum from 2020, when Republicans flipped 14 House districts where they nominated a woman or a person of color.Overall, Republicans have nominated 67 candidates of color in House races, according to the National Republican Congressional Committee. Those candidates could allow the party to dramatically expand its ranks of members of color, given that just 19 non-white Republicans serve in the House now. With Republicans heavily favored to take back the House, many of those candidates of color could join the new session of Congress in January.Latina Republicans have performed particularly well in primary races, with several of them expected to win their general elections as well. The nominations of candidates like Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th congressional district and Yesli Vega in Virginia’s seventh district, which is another tossup race, led Vox to declare 2022 to be “the year of the Latina Republican”.“Republicans have an all-star class of candidates who represent the diversity of our country,” Tom Emmer, chair of the NRCC, said late last month. “These candidates are going to win on election day and they will deliver for the American people.”Republicans’ strategy of nominating people of color in some key House races comes even as members of the party continue to make headlines for their racist comments on the campaign trail. For example, Republican senator Tommy Tubberville of Alabama was widely denounced last month after he suggested Democrats support reparations for the descendants of enslaved people because “they think the people that do the crime are owed that”.And while Republicans boast about the diversity of this year’s class of candidates, Democrats’ House caucus remains much more racially diverse. Fifty-eight Black Democrats serve in the House currently, compared to two incumbent Black Republicans. Similarly, House Republicans hope to double their number of Latino members, which now stands at seven, but 33 Latino Democrats currently serve in the lower chamber.Beyond Congress, several gubernatorial candidates are eying the history books. Two Democratic gubernatorial candidates, Maura Healey in Massachusetts and Tina Kotek in Oregon, would become the first openly lesbian women governors in US history if they are successful on Tuesday. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the former White House press secretary under Donald Trump, will also likely be the first woman to win the Arkansas governorship.Stacey Abrams had hoped to make her mark as the first Black woman to serve as Georgia’s governor, but incumbent Republican Brian Kemp has pulled ahead in the polls. Other candidates like Oklahoma Democrat Madison Horn, who would be the first Native American woman to serve in the US Senate, also face long-shot odds of prevailing on Tuesday.But even if certain historic candidates do not succeed, it appears certain that the halls of Congress and governor’s mansions across America will look a bit different after 8 November.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsHouse of RepresentativesRaceLGBTQ+ rightsnewsReuse this content More

Midterms scenarios: will Republicans take the Senate and the House?A handful of general scenarios could play out on Tuesday, each having huge significance for Biden and Donald Trump As Americans go to the polls on Tuesday they are voting in what Joe Biden has framed as a vital test for American democracy in the face of a Republican party fielding candidates who buy into the big lie of a stolen 2020 election.Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to capitalize on widespread economic anxiety in the face of rising inflation as well as stoking culture war themes and fears over crime, often spilling over into racism and intolerance.Why the US midterms matter – from abortion rights to democracyRead moreMillions of voters are casting their ballot as Republicans and Democrats fight for control of Congress, numerous state governorships as well as many local offices and ballot initiatives on issues like abortion.A handful of general scenarios could play out, each having momentous significance for the Biden presidency and the tactics of a resurgent Republican party and its de facto leader Donald Trump.Republicans win the House, Democrats hold the SenateIn a split decision, expect Republicans to thwart Biden’s legislative agenda and launch a flurry of congressional investigations, for example into the botched military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the president’s son Hunter’s business dealings in China and Ukraine. Trump ally Jim Jordan might take the lead.A Republican majority would also doom the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. They might even seek revenge by launching a counter-investigation into telecom companies that handed over phone records to the committee or into members of the panel themselves.Policy-wise, Republicans could seek to reverse some major accomplishments of Biden’s first two years, such as climate spending, student loan forgiveness and corporate tax increases.Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader and current favourite to become House speaker, has told Punchbowl News that Republicans would use a future battle over raising the national debt ceiling as leverage to force cuts in public spending.McCarthy has also warned that the party will not write a “blank cheque” for Ukraine, while Marjorie Taylor Greene, expected to be a prominent figure in the Republican caucus, told a rally in Iowa: “Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine. Our country comes first.”But a Democratic-controlled Senate would be able to continue rubber-stamping Biden’s nominations for cabinet secretaries and federal judges.Republicans win House and SenateDespite polarisation in Washington, Biden has so far achieved some bipartisan victories on infrastructure, gun safety, health benefits for veterans and manufacturing investments to compete with China. But Republicans would be less likely to allow him further wins as the next presidential election draws closer.Instead, expect a new antagonism between the White House and Congress. A Republican-controlled Senate could slow down or block Biden’s judicial nominees, including if there is an unexpected opening on the supreme court.Conversely, Republican attempts to harden rules on immigration, gun rights or ban transgender women from playing in women’s sports would surely be met by a Biden presidential veto.The Republican policy agenda remains nebulous. Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader in the Senate, has resisted publishing a platform, fuelling criticism that the party has a cult of personality around Trump.Former president Barack Obama told a recent rally in Atlanta, Georgia: “These days, right now, just about every Republican politician seems obsessed with two things: owning the libs and getting Donald Trump’s approval.”Rick Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, did publish a 12-point plan that includes forcing poorer Americans who do not currently pay income tax to do so and reauthorising social security and Medicare every five years instead of allowing the programmes to continue automatically.And Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina introduced a bill to create a national ban on abortions at 15 weeks, dividing Republicans and infuriating progressive activists. If far-right members put it to a vote, Senate Democrats would be sure to filibuster it.The White House, meanwhile, would be forced on the defensive against a slew of congressional investigations into Afghanistan, Hunter Biden and other targets.Democrats hold House and SenateThis would be a huge surprise and defy historical trends. Opinion pollsters would be crying into their beer, fearing that their industry is well and truly broken.A Democratic sweep would give Joe Biden a mandate to enact a sweeping agenda that would again invite comparisons with former presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.Biden said last month that, if Democrats win control of Congress, the first bill he sends to Capitol Hill next year would codify Roe v Wade, the 1973 supreme court decision that overturned the constitutional right to abortion. The party could also push for national protections for same-sex marriage and voting rights.The president wants further actions on gun safety including a ban on assault weapons. He could seek to resurrect elements of his Build Back Better agenda, including more climate measures and expanding the social safety net, and make another attempt to tackle racial discrimination in policing.And some Democrats are drafting legislation to prevent Trump from running for president in 2024 due to his instigation of the January 6 insurrection, the New York Times reported, although that would be a long shot.But much would depend on how big – or small – the Democratic majority turns out to be. If it is slender, the conservative Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona could once again call the shots and frustrate the president’s ambitions.TopicsUS newsUS politicsUS midterm elections 2022House of RepresentativesUS CongressDemocratsRepublicansnewsReuse this content More

Tuesday briefing: What you need to know ahead of US midtermsIn today’s newsletter: As Americans vote for senators, representatives and local officials, our Washington DC bureau chief explains why this contest is so important and how the balance of power might shift

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Good morning.Today the midterm elections are being held across America. Ballots will be cast for senators, representatives and local officials in one of the most important contests in recent years. It has become tiresome to describe every American election as uniquely significant, but there is a lot at stake with these midterms as the chasm between Democrats and Republicans grows ever wider, and the supreme court decision to no longer protect abortion rights hangs in the air.Despite a slim majority in Congress, Joe Biden and the Democrats have spent the past two years pushing through new laws on gun control, the climate crisis, child poverty and infrastructure – much more than many thought possible. But any change in the balance of power will bring that momentum to a grinding halt.And for many Democrats this is not just an election about policy, it is a fight for democracy itself. Two hundred candidates are running, some of them in key seats, who believe that the last election was stolen from Donald Trump. Hearings on the January 6 insurrection have been shocking – and only two weeks ago the husband of the US House speaker Nancy Pelosi was attacked in their house. If Republicans were to enjoy a resounding success, it is far from clear they would accept any future Democratic victory in a presidential election. I spoke to David Smith, the Guardian’s Washington DC bureau chief, about why these midterms matter so much and what the results could mean for America.Five big stories
Climate | Low-income countries will need approximately $2tn (£1.75tn) in climate funding by 2030 to help cut their emissions and cope with the effects of the climate crisis.
Russia | Putin ally and influential Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted to interfering in the US elections and has said that interfering will continue in the coming midterms.
Politics | A senior civil servant said that Gavin Williamson subjected them to a campaign of bullying when he was defence secretary, allegedly telling them to “slit your throat” and “jump out of the window” on two separate occasions.
Weather | The Met Office predicts severe flooding across England in February despite the country remaining in drought. The floods will be a result of La Niña, a weather phenomenon influenced by cooler temperatures in the Pacific.
Courts | Hollie Dance – the mother of Archie Battersbee, a 12-year-old boy who sustained a catastrophic brain injury in April and died in August – wants a coroner to examine the role of exposure to TikTok videos may have played in his death. Dance believes her son was hurt by taking part in an online challenge known as the “blackout challenge”.
In depth: ‘History suggests a good night for Republicans’Midterm elections are usually high-stakes affairs, often viewed as a referendum on the sitting president. But this year’s are particularly consequential. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, about one-third of the Senate, and 36 state governorships, among other local positions that have a say on how votes will be counted at future elections. As things stand, the Democrats have control in Washington – from the presidency to Congress to the Senate (the Senate is currently divided 50-50 but Vice-President Kamala Harris is the tie-breaking vote). But it’s famously hard for a sitting president to maintain an advantage, even more so during a cost of living crisis.It’s conventional wisdom that Republicans will probably win the House at least, says David: “History suggests Republicans will have a good night because, on the vast majority of occasions, the party that holds the White House loses seats. And polling in recent days seems to underline that.” A win in the house would give Republicans the power to cut spending for aid to Ukraine and welfare spending. Republicans have also said they plan to disband the January 6 committee and start a slew of investigations into their Democratic opponents. There have even been calls to impeach Joe Biden, although senior Republicans have been downplaying the likelihood of that happening. A fully Republican Congress could also push for a national abortion ban – although any changes to such legislation would be vetoed by the president.If the GOP wins the senate as well, they will be able to obstruct Biden’s political agenda, as well as blocking many of his cabinet secretaries and judicial appointments.The key racesThere are a number of contests that everyone is keeping a very close eye on. Perhaps the biggest is Georgia: “The rule used to be whichever way Florida goes, so goes the nation,” says David, but “Georgia has, in many ways, replaced Florida as the pivotal state in the nation.”Georgia’s senate race is extremely important. Raphael Warnock’s win in 2021 was key to the Democrats securing control of the senate. Now Warnock faces off against Herschel Walker, a former football player who “has no discernible political experience or qualifications”, David says. Walker has been embroiled in controversy for a year as stories of his affairs, extramarital children and allegations of domestic violence came to light. Most recently, a former girlfriend asserted that he paid for for her to have an abortion, despite Walker running on a hardline anti-abortion platform.And Georgia is also where Democratic favourite (and Star Trek’s president of a United Earth), Stacey Abrams, will again try to wrestle the governership from Brian Kemp. A victory for Abrams would ensure voting and abortion rights are bolstered in the state.Other races to watch out for are Ohio, where author of Hillbilly Elegy, Trump critic turned sycophant JD Vance is running: “If Democrats win in a state that has really been trending Republican in recent years, there’ll be a lot of blame on Vance and perhaps Donald Trump for backing him,” David says.Pennsylvania, home of Joe Biden, is another crucial state with TV personality Dr Mehmet Oz running against the 6’8” tattooed lieutenant governor, John Fetterman, in the senate race. Oz secured a Trump endorsement, as did Doug Mastriano, who is running for governor of the same state. Mastriano was part of the effort to overturn the 2020 elections and appeared outside the US Capitol during January 6 riots. He could be a key part of a Trump presidential run in 2024.A divided nation“It feels as if there are two separate campaigns and conversations happening, that are operating on different planets,” David says. “In the past, at least, there was a shared set of issues, and both parties would be looking to be the best on inflation or healthcare.”Republicans have focused on inflation, specifically petrol prices, and the cost of living crisis. They have also made characteristic campaign points about crime and other culture war topics such as immigration. Conversely, Democrats have been focused on reproductive rights following the supreme court decision to overturn Roe v Wade, as well as the threats to democracy, voting rights and the climate crisis. “A lot of opinion polls are suggesting that Republicans’ issues are likely to win the day, because so often, people vote according to their pocketbook and the economy,” says David.What it means for the rest of Joe Biden’s first termJoe Biden’s presidential approval rating hovers around 40%. A poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos found that 69% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, while just 18% said it was on the right track. While the Democrats have managed to recover from a summer slump in the polls, a big Republican victory could further entrench his political weakness, freeze up his administration for its final two years and lead to calls for Biden to step aside for another Democrat in the presidential race in 2024.The T wordDonald Trump has still had time to have a weirdly active role in these midterm elections, having endorsed more than 200 candidates on all levels of the political system. His senate endorsements in particular will be a litmus test for the Republican party. “In a normal world, if all of his candidates lost and they got wiped out, there could be a sense that Donald Trump really does not have the political midas touch that many believed he had,” David says. But this is not a normal world, and it’s likely that regardless of what happens, Trump will claim the victory as his own: “If they lose, he’ll say they failed to follow his advice, maybe they did not embrace the ‘big lie’ enough. Or he could just say the vote was rigged and it’s all another scam.”However, if Trump candidates do win, he will be the first to claim it was all down to him and that he has been vindicated. It has been reported that Trump plans to launch his next presidential campaign around the week of 14 November on the back of any momentum from the midterms.When will we know for the results?Even though voters will be casting their ballots today, it might be days, perhaps even weeks, before there is a clear picture of results. Republicans might seem to have a huge early lead, but that will be because – for the second election in a row – their votes will be counted and reported first in several battleground states. It’s a deliberate change made by Republican officials in some states, making it easier to cast doubt on results when the final tally differs markedly from early announcements. This is coupled with the fact that Democrats traditionally use mail-in ballots far more than Republican voters, and those ballots can take longer to tally and tend to be reported in the days after the election.There will be some idea of how the election went tomorrow morning. In the meantime, read more of the Guardian’s midterm elections coverage here.What else we’ve been reading
There are so many parts of Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett’s latest column that will chime for parents – but for me it was the way she captures the constant change of early parenthood that really struck home, every shift gifting “a whole new phase, while mourning that which came before”. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
Benjamin Zand spent a year inside the incel community in the UK and abroad, uncovering a world marred by desperation, loneliness and violent misogyny. Nimo
Elle Hunt’s lovely feature, talking to the bands who had their music coopted by politicians, is perhaps best encapsulated by this quote from Friendly Fires’ response to Boris Johnson using their song as entrance music: “If we’d have intended them to use it, we’d have named the track Blue Bunch of Corrupt Wankers.” Toby
Georgina Sturge unpacks how “bad data” infiltrated British politics and what the implications are on policy when a government relies on erroneous or partial information. “Numbers hold enormous power,” Sturge writes, “but in the end, we must remember that we govern them – not the other way round.” Nimo
Ham in a can is back, and Stuart Heritage’s tour through the best Spam recipes from the great and good of the culinary world offers one particularly dangerous idea: Spam french fries, anyone? Toby
SportWorld Cup 2022 | Six out of 10 people in the UK think that the World Cup should not be held in Qatar because of its criminalisation of homosexuality. The same poll found that only 43% of people think that England and Wales should take part in the World Cup.Football | Liverpool and Manchester United face tough European challenges against Real Madrid and Barcelona in the next round of Champions and Europa Leagues.Football | Rio Ferdinand is typically thoughtful on the subjects of racism and homophobia in this revealing interview with Donald McRae.The front pagesThe Guardian leads this morning with “Poor nations ‘paying twice’ for climate breakdown”. The i has “Red alert for Earth: gravest warning yet on climate change” while the Metro covers Cop27 as well with “Sunak turns on the Sharm”, geddit? The Daily Mail asks “Just what planet are they on?” – it says incredulously that campaigners want the UK to pay $1tn in climate reparations to poorer nations. Other papers show Rishi Sunak embracing Emmanuel Macron at Cop27 but it is not their lead story. “Welfare and pensions set to rise with inflation” – that’s the Times while the Daily Telegraph has “Gas deal set to ease energy crisis” and the Daily Express goes with “Rishi: I will get ‘grip’ on migrant crisis”. The Mirror’s splash is inspiring but also a bit challenging: “Brave mum’s TV dissection to educate millions” (about cancer – the “extraordinary broadcast” will take place on Channel 4). It is still on the trail of Lord Lucan as well – a puff box says “Lucan brother: he DID escape and become a Buddhist”. The top story in the Financial Times today is “Chancellor lines up stealth raid on inheritance tax to shore up finances”.Today in FocusUS midterms: is it still the economy, stupid?The Democrats have learned hard lessons over the years about what happens when election campaigns neglect the economy, so has the party been strong enough in its messaging for today’s midterm elections? Lauren Gambino reportsCartoon of the day | Steve BellThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badDuring monsoon season in south-western Bangladesh, when there is little dry land on which to grow food, farmers keep their businesses afloat – quite literally – by growing vegetables on rafts made from invasive water hyacinths. These floating gardens help ensure food security in low-lying regions, where the climate crisis has resulted in waterlogging and flooding. Photographer Mohammad Ponir Hossain, who won a Pulitzer for his images of Rohingya refugees, has captured the practice and the people behind it.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
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TopicsRepublicansFirst EditionUS midterm elections 2022Joe BidenStacey AbramsDonald TrumpDemocratsUS politicsnewslettersReuse this content More

Former US president Donald Trump, speaking at a rally in Ohio, said he will be making a ‘big announcement’ on November 15, hinting he will mount a 2024 presidential run. ‘I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida,’ Trump told supporters at the rally for Republican Senate candidate JD Vance. Trump declined to elaborate, saying he did not want to ‘detract from tomorrow’s very important, even critical election’.
Americans are set to cast their vote in elections that could result in Republicans winning control of one or both chambers of Congress

Expect the Trump-DeSantis animosity to evolve into open warfare after midterms
‘We’re at risk’: the little-known races that could expand Republican power
Biden makes final plea for high stakes midterms: ‘Next year will shape our lifetimes’ More

Biden makes final plea for high stakes midterms: ‘Next year will shape our lifetimes’In his final speech before election day, the president attacked Republicans on the economy but also offered a hopeful note Joe Biden rallied with fellow Democrats on Monday night, delivering a message of optimism and determination in the face of widespread concerns about his party’s showing in Tuesday’s midterm elections.Addressing a boisterous crowd in Maryland, Biden stressed the high stakes of the races that will determine control of the US Congress for the next two years. Painting a grim picture of a Republican-controlled Congress, Biden predicted that the opposing party would use their majorities to roll back Americans’ rights and dismantle social welfare programs.“Our lifetimes are going to be shaped by what happens the next year to three years,” Biden said. “It’s going to shape what the next couple decades look like.”Victory for ‘true Maga warriors’ would tighten Trump grip on Republican partyRead moreBiden repeated his promise to shore up abortion rights if Democrats expand their congressional majorities, but recent polls suggest Americans are currently more focused on economic issues, where Republicans traditionally hold an advantage with voters. In the final days of campaigning, some Democrats have expressed alarm that their candidates have not done enough to address anxiety over the state of the economy, leaving the party vulnerable to a red wave on Tuesday.In the face of near record-high inflation and fears of a potential recession, Biden instead pointed to different metrics – namely the low unemployment rate and the 10m jobs created since he took office – to defend his administration’s economic agenda. Noting that Donald Trump was the first president who oversaw a reduction in jobs since Herbert Hoover, Biden argued Republicans have no plan to improve the economy.“Remember, these are the guys who passed the $2tn tax cut benefitting the wealthy and big corporations and didn’t pay for a penny of it,” Biden said, referring to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that Trump signed into law. “We’re the ones bringing down the deficit, allowing us to afford to provide ordinary, hardworking Americans a little break.”Republicans resoundingly rejected Biden’s closing argument to midterm voters, accusing Democrats of neglecting Americans’ most pressing concerns at a precipitous time for the US economy.“Our country deserves leaders who take accountability and understand the issues facing hardworking families – Joe Biden and Democrats have only shown they are out-of-touch and put power over people,” said Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee. Several Democratic candidates who will stand for office on Tuesday appeared alongside Biden at Bowie State University, a historically Black school located just outside of Washington. Biden was introduced by Wes Moore, who will become the first Black governor of Maryland if he wins on Tuesday. Given Moore’s impressive polling lead, he appears poised to flip the Maryland governorship to Democratic control after eight years of Republican Larry Hogan’s leadership.Even with those encouraging signs, Moore emphasized that he is taking nothing for granted in the final hours before polls close.“The only poll that matters is election day,” Moore said. “And until those polls close tomorrow night, we are running like we are 10 points behind.”Democrats fear that Moore’s success will prove to be the exception rather than the rule for the party’s candidates on Tuesday night. According to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans have recently regained their advantage on the generic congressional ballot – a summary of polls asking respondents which party they’d prefer to control Congress – elevating GOP hopes of taking control of the House. Republican candidates have similarly gained ground in some key Senate races, raising the possibility that Democrats could lose their majorities in both chambers on Tuesday.If Republicans can regain control of the House and the Senate, their success would quash any hope of Democrats enacting more of their legislative priorities for the next two years. House Republicans have also promised they would use their majority power to launch investigations of the Biden administration and bring a swift end to the work of the select committee investigating the January 6 insurrection.Addressing supporters on Monday night, Biden warned that Republican control of Congress could have far-reaching consequences on the country’s governing institutions. Hundreds of Republican candidates running for office this year have expressed baseless doubts about the legitimacy of Biden’s 2020 victory, and the president argued that empowering such election deniers could threaten the foundations of American democracy.“There’s only two outcomes in their view of an election. One, either they win, or they were cheated,” Biden said. “You can’t only love your country when you win.”Even as Biden expressed grave concern about the threats facing America, he closed his final speech before election day on a hopeful note, indicating confidence that democratic principles would guide voters on Tuesday and help Democrats secure victories up and down the ballot.“As I travel this country and the world, I see [a] great nation because I know we’re a good people,” Biden said. “We just have to remember who in the hell we are.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022DemocratsMarylandJoe BidenUS CongressUS politicsnewsReuse this content More