US Politics

US voters hit hardest by climate crisis: ‘I need politicians to care about this’The devastating effects of climate change are motivating how voters cast their ballots in the midterm elections Across the US, temperature records tumbled in a summer of heatwaves, enormous floods drowned entire towns and, in the west, an ongoing drought is now so severe that corpses are being uncovered in rapidly drying reservoirs.Despite these increasingly ominous signs, the climate crisis has struggled to gain much visibility in the lead-up to next week’s midterm elections. “Many voters are more focused on things like inflation, understandably, because people are struggling to get by in this economy,” said Geoffrey Henderson, an expert in climate policy at Duke University.Republican candidates on climate: ‘fake science’ to ‘carbon is healthy’Read moreBut, Henderson added, this will still be a “very high-stakes election for climate change”, with probable Republican control of at least one chamber of Congress likely to result in the gumming up of Joe Biden’s climate agenda. While the president managed to get a huge climate bill passed in the summer, any further legislation or even moves to implement the Inflation Reduction Act, will face obstruction. We spoke to six voters to ask what the climate crisis means for them ahead of the midterms.Wendy Johnson, Phoenix, ArizonaJohnson, 62, is the executive director of the Justa Center – a non-profit organization supporting homeless seniors in Phoenix, America’s hottest city, where it’s getting hotter, drier and deadlier. Returning to live in her home town five years ago after several decades, it’s become clear to Johnson that the climate crisis is hitting Phoenix hard, yet still isn’t a top priority for most voters or elected officials.“It’s obviously hotter in Phoenix than in the 1980s, but there are still too many people who deny climate change and keep voting for their pocketbooks. I see the effects everywhere: at work, elderly homeless people have come in with first and second degree burns from the asphalt or cement which is 30 degrees hotter than the just bearable 105F ambient temperature,” she said.She also described helping elderly people with dehydration, young kids collapsing while playing football or at band practice, and electricity bills doubling. “Climate change is everywhere but it’s still a peripheral issue for most people in the midterm elections.”Inflation hit 13% in Phoenix earlier this year – a record for any US city according to data going back 20 years – exacerbating the climate and homelessness crises driving heat deaths which have almost doubled since 2019.Johnson, who describes herself as a conservative Democrat, has looked into the climate credentials of all the candidates including the down-ticket races, which include the unintended consequences of some seemingly progressive climate pledges, like the displacement of families by a proposed light rail service. But Johnson fears that she’s in the minority.“Election deniers are the same people who still deny climate change, and if we can’t move them despite the proven facts, then for many election integrity is the most important thing.”Alyssa Quintyne, Fairbanks, AlaskaQuintyne is a community organiser in Fairbanks, a city with some of the worst air pollution in the country. This summer, as a record number of blazes enveloped the state after a record-breaking dry spell in the Fairbanks region, Quintyne said she had to really grapple with the meaning of climate crisis. The air had always been bad in her town due to wood-burning stoves and wildfires, but this year was unprecedented. “Things get worse and worse, year after year. And it can happen subtly until it catches you off guard.”Quintyne, 28, has a heart condition that has been linked to air pollution, as well as respiratory issues. “It’s ridiculous that climate change has become such a partisan issue, when really, this is really about are you able to breathe,” she said.In recent years, Quintyne has also seen severe winter storms damage her home and the homes of neighbors and family members; she has seen friends who don’t have the same health issues she does struggle with breathing difficulties as heatwaves and wildfire, fueled by global heating, exacerbate pollution.Of the independent and Democratic candidates for governor, Quintyne said she was still deciding who will strike the right balance between helping uplift and transition the state’s economy – which remains heavily dependent on oil and gas extraction – and prioritizing environmental justice. “I’m still teetering,” she said. “I’m still asking questions.”But above all, in a state that until recently has elected mostly conservative and moderate politicians, she’s looking for candidates who are open to working with environmental activists. “Having a candidate that is at least listening to you to understand where you are coming from, that’s incredibly important,” she said.Edith Tapia, El Paso, TexasLiving in the border city of El Paso, Tapia has noticed several environmental changes in recent years: the change of seasons has felt delayed and unpredictable, and the warmer weather has felt more prominent. Then, there’s the storms. “Every couple of years, [there are] these big snowstorms – or freezes – that shut everything down,” Tapia said. Because El Paso is on a separate electrical grid from the rest of Texas, the city was largely spared power outages during the freeze of 2021. “But Juárez [wasn’t],” said Tapia, referring to the Mexican city across the border from El Paso.Tapia works on both sides of the US-Mexico border as a technical adviser for a humanitarian organization, and saw up close what a freeze can do. Colleagues in Juárez were left without water or gas for multiple days. Additionally, she’s seen power outages in El Paso during extremely hot summer months. Despite the prevalence of environmental and climate issues facing the border region, and Texas more broadly, Tapia hasn’t seen any candidates campaigning on taking bolder climate action. “No candidate, at least that I’ve heard [of], is using this information as a major selling point,” said Tapia.In 2020, a mayoral candidate ran on the issue of fighting climate change in El Paso. “I thought she was excellent,” said Tapia, although the candidate ultimately lost. In general, Tapia notes that climate is on the minds of voters and candidates alike, but not always at first glance. “It is [there], but you have to dig a little deeper,” she said.Shelley Hunter, Quincy, CaliforniaIn the aftermath of the Dixie Fire, Hunter’s hotel, the Quincy Featherbed Inn, was first frequented by fatigued firefighters and now has been filled by construction workers and displaced neighbors. “We have turned to hopefulness instead of being victimized,” she said. But it hasn’t been easy. “Quincy is just trying to survive,” she added.Many of the restaurants have shuttered. Residents are moving away. Tourists that fuel the town’s economy are in shorter supply. “It is not just the fire – it is the pandemic and inflation and the lack of labor is just a perfect storm to impact everyone.”A lifelong Democrat, Hunter is now exploring a political shift in response to the change in circumstances she’s experienced. With increasing threats posed by the climate crisis, which have made water more scarce, spurred the rise in megafires like the Dixie, and spiked temperatures, Hunter fears for her both livelihood and her life. That, she said, has made voting more complicated.“It feels like it is one extreme to the other,” she said of the Democrats and Republicans, who she feels split messaging between climate consciousness and small business support respectively. “Climate change is real. It is happening and it is going to affect everybody,” she said. “And, it’s getting harder and harder to stay in business.”As an early voter who was vocal about her support of the Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, Hunter cast votes for Republicans down-ballot for the first time this year. It helped that former president Trump wasn’t on the ballot, she said, noting her refusal to vote for candidates supportive of him. But her belief that conservatives will help her small business survive the bumpy road ahead is a complicated one. She’s looking for moderates who can address a multitude of concerns in the face of escalating catastrophes.“It is a shift for me,” she said. But anybody who denies climate change I am not voting for – let’s get real here.Sophie Swope, Bethel, AlaskaSwope is a city councilmember in Bethel, a western Alaskan city in a region that has been warming three to four times faster than the lower 48 states. Melting permafrost and storms have wreaked havoc on infrastructure, and the ground under Swope has literally cracked and shifted. In recent years, Swope, who is Yupik and a member of the Orutsararmiut tribe, has seen erosion and flooding displace homes, schools and even entire villages surrounding Bethel. “Climate change is happening before our eyes,” she said.Swope, 24, said she was looking for candidates who possess an understanding of how the climate crisis is affecting rural and tribal communities, their livelihood and their survival. She’s especially excited to vote for Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate for Alaska’s sole seat in the US House of Representatives. This summer, Peltola, who is also Yupik and from Bethel, became the first Alaska Native to be elected to Congress. “She has fished in our rivers for the majority of her life,” Swope said. “She understands how precious all of our natural resources are.”Swope founded a non-profit to oppose the development of the Donlin Gold mine – which if completed would be the largest open pit goldmine in the world. In a state where the economy is enmeshed with extractive industries, and where the people live at the Arctic edge of the climate crisis, Swope is also wary of candidates who prioritize development over the health of communities and ecosystems. “I understand that there is a need for mining and extraction at some level,” she said. “But we have to keep in mind how in Alaska every piece of land is precious.”Stuart Palley, Orange county, CaliforniaPhotographer Stuart Palley has been on the frontline of disasters for nearly a decade, capturing the devastation and escalation of wildfires in the west from behind his camera. For Palley, a lifelong Californian, the crisis is also personal. He’s watched as lands he loves turned to moonscapes, seen infernos swallow whole towns and lamented the loss of thousands-year-old trees that succumbed to firestorms. A self-described progressive, bearing witness to countless catastrophes has brought the climate crisis into sharper focus for Palley and the issue is now central to how he vets candidates from either party.“It is important to me that a candidate actually has a plan,” he said, emphasizing that that includes a greater acknowledgment of the intersectionality between climate action and equity and inclusion. “I tend to vote Democrat but there are independents and even the Green party that have better platforms,” he added, noting that his home district’s distinctly purple hue has at times skewed his support blue.“Our district is such a purple district and such a swing district for Congress and the county board of supervisors that the margin is down to a few thousand votes.”But even beyond the scope of his work, he’s worried about California’s treasured landscapes and ecosystems, including Joshua Tree national park near his home, bear the brunt of a warming world. “A lot of these areas are under threat,” he said, adding “I need politicians to care about this.” So, Palley plans to cast his votes with an eye toward the escalating threats looming now and in the future – with full knowledge of what’s at stake.“What’s the point of anything else if we don’t have a livable planet?”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022Climate crisisUS politicsfeaturesReuse this content More

White women have been voting against their (reproductive) interests for yearsArwa MahdawiThe latest polls are a sobering reminder that some women will vote in ways that threaten their bodily autonomy if it helps bolster their status Sign up for the Week in Patriarchy, a newsletter​ on feminism and sexism sent every Saturday.‘The elephant in the room is white and female’There are only a few days left until the US midterm elections and, if a new poll is to be believed, white women might help contribute to a red wave. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that white suburban women have “significantly shifted” their support from Democrats to Republicans amid “rising concerns over the economy and inflation”. The Journal found that white suburban women “now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 percentage points, moving 27 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal‘s August poll”.Hang on a second. What about reproductive rights? What about the fact that Republican states have implemented dystopian abortion laws that, among other horror stories, forced a 10-year-old rape victim to flee her home state in order to have a safe and legal abortion? What about the fact that Republicans are threatening to overturn the right to contraception? Doesn’t that all count for something?Democratic strategists certainly thought it might. After Roe v Wade was overturned in June, it looks like the November midterms would be a referendum on reproductive rights and Democrats spent accordingly. According to a CNN analysis, Democratic campaigns and groups spent $214m on broadcast TV ads that mentioned abortion – 45% of all the ad money spent by the party over that time. By contrast they spent less than $18m on ads about inflation; a fraction of the $77m Republicans spent on the topic during the same period.It seems that, when it comes to white suburbia at least, abortion-focused ads have fallen on increasingly indifferent ears. Reproductive rights are still a concern, according to the Journal’s poll, but they’re not as top of mind as the fact that food prices are through the roof and we seem to be hurtling into a recession. It’s understandable that people might be more worried about feeding their family than family planning right now. Still, it’s not like you can trust Republicans to make the economy better; they have a track record of doing quite the opposite. You can certainly trust them to make reproductive rights worse, however.The fact that white suburban women might vote for a party that is eager to legislate their uteruses just because the same party is making vague promises to fix the economy has shocked some commentators. On Thursday, Sunny Hostin, a co-host of ABC’s The View likened suburban women voting Republican to “roaches voting for Raid … they’re voting against their own self-interest”. It’s not really a great idea to compare any group of people to cockroaches and this quote was immediately seized upon by the rightwing press and spun into its own news cycle. Still, you get the idea, voting for a party that doesn’t quite see you as human seems bonkers.Alas, white women have been voting against their own (reproductive) interests for a very long time. White women have voted for the Republican candidate in the past 18 presidential elections, the Washington Post has noted, “breaking only for Lyndon B Johnson and for Bill Clinton’s second term”. White women memorably voted in large numbers for Donald Trump, a proud misogynist. “The elephant in the room is white and female, and she has been standing there since 1952,” the political scientist Jane Junn wrote in 2016. “This result has been hiding in plain sight, obscured by a normative bias that women are more Democratic than men. They are … But this does not mean that white women are more Democratic overall. They are not.”The takeaway here, by the way, isn’t that American voters don’t care about Roe v Wade being overturned any more. Abortion rights are still very much top of mind for voters. Among likely Democratic voters in the CNN poll, 29% named abortion as their top issue, while 27% chose the economy. The Republicans’ extreme stance on abortion has galvanized more young women to say they will vote; despite the Wall Street Journal’s poll, there’s still a very good chance reproductive rights could help swing the midterms in the Democrats’ favour. Still, the Journal’s poll is also a sobering reminder that women are not a monolith. Some women will also vote in ways that threaten their bodily autonomy if it helps bolster their status overall. Patriarchy requires its handmaidens.China tells women to ‘respect family values’ in revised law“Women should respect and obey national laws, respect social morals, professional ethics and family values,” according to an amendment to China’s Women’s Rights and Interests Protection Law. As birth rates drop in China, the government seems to be trying to push more women out of public life and into traditional caregiver roles. Last month, for example China’s Politburo standing committee, the small group that runs the country, became entirely male for the first time since 1997.Alcohol deaths rose among women during the pandemicExcessive drinking has been killing increasing numbers of middle-aged American adults for nearly two decades. However, things got markedly worse during the pandemic when lockdown drove many of us to drink. Alcohol-related deaths rose by 26% from 2019 to 2020; among women aged 35-44 they went up 42% in the same period. From 2000 through 2018, age-adjusted alcohol-related deaths rose yearly, but never at a rate higher than 7%, NBC reports.Miss Puerto Rico and Miss Argentina marry in a secret ceremonyHoping Netflix makes a holiday movie about this immediately.Women globally retire with a quarter less wealth than menThe wealth gap is largely due to the gender pay gap and the fact that the burden of parenting still largely falls on women.Only 5.3% of all US state legislators are women with children under the age of 18 at homeThat’s according to data collected by the Vote Mama Foundation, which is dedicated to getting mothers, specifically Democrats, elected to public office. Meanwhile only 7% of members of Congress are mothers of minor children – in comparison, nearly 18% of people in the US are mothers with kids under 18.The week in pawtriarchyYour dog may be judging you – but only if your dog is female. A new study out of Japan has found that female dogs can recognize “a human’s competence and adjust their behavior based on their evaluation”. Luckily for me I have a male dog who doesn’t notice my incompetence. He’s a good simple boy.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022OpinionUS politicscommentReuse this content More

InterviewMichigan’s top election official: ‘Every tactic tried in 2020 will be tried again’Sam Levine in New YorkUp for re-election as secretary of state herself, Jocelyn Benson expects more electoral interference in the looming midterms Jocelyn Benson can still rattle off all the important dates.There was 17 November 2020, when two canvassers in Michigan’s Wayne county nearly refused to certify the election results. There was 23 November, when the state board almost did the same thing. There was 5 December, when dozens of armed protesters gathered outside her home as she put up Christmas decorations with her family. And there was 6 January, when an armed mob laid siege to the US Capitol.The US is on a knife-edge. The enemy for Trump’s Republicans is democracy itself | Jonathan FreedlandRead moreTwo years later, Benson, a Democrat, is overseeing another high-stakes election in her state, a key battleground in the US. She’s also running for a second term as Michigan’s top election official – secretary of state – facing off against Kristina Karamo, a Republican who gained national attention for seeding doubt about the results of the 2020 race. There’s little doubt in Benson’s mind that there will be another attempt to overturn the will of the voters in her state.“We expect that every lever that was pulled, and every tactic that was tried in 2020, will be tried again in ’22, and will be tried again in ’24,” she said in an interview with the Guardian. “And so we go into this election cycle not only with the knowledge of those tactics, but with the expectation in fact that there will be more people in positions of authority or willing to endorse those tactics than there were in 2020.”Looking back at the 2020 election, Benson now sees two things she wishes she had done differently. First, the pandemic restricted the amount of in-person interaction Benson could have with voters, limiting her ability to answer questions. Second, she said, her office didn’t plan enough for the possibility of attempts to interfere in the vote-counting process.“We thought at that point that the 2020 election, and our work in it, would be done. Because our work was to make sure that the process went well and everything else would play out the way it always has,” she said. “We drastically underestimated the post-election challenges that we endured for the months following November 2020. And we won’t make that mistake again.”Michigan was at the forefront of Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Human error in a rural county helped feed conspiracy theories of a stolen vote. A chaotic scene at a central ballot-counting station in Detroit led to baseless allegations of malfeasance. All of that culminated in an enormous pressure campaign from Trump and his allies for local bipartisan boards of canvassers not to certify the election. Several reviews have affirmed Joe Biden’s victory in the state and there is no evidence of fraud.Republicans have spent the last two years focused on the state’s election infrastructure. Some officials on local canvassing boards who voted to certify the results of the 2020 election have been quietly replaced by Republicans. There has been a well-organized effort to recruit and train people who doubt the 2020 election results to work the polls, leading to increased concern about intimidation.That potential for violence on election day is one of the things that Benson is worried about as the midterms approach.“What January 6 taught us is that there is no bottom to how far someone will go, especially armed with misinformation to interfere with the fair and free elections of our country and of our state,” she said. “Because of that variable, because of that unknown and because of that potential, I am every day hopeful but concerned that people will show up to vote on election day and instead of finding a serene and even joyful experience, it will be a stressful one at best. Or that violence will erupt either during or after the election.”She’s also worried that some people, after a barrage of misinformation about election lies, may simply decide not to vote at all. “That breaks my heart,” she said. “I worry that the attacks that democracy has endured over these years, and the misinformation that has only escalated in toxicity, will ultimately lead many people to give up on politics altogether.”Even before she was a secretary of state, Benson recognized the enormous overlooked power these state officials have. She literally wrote a book on the topic: in 2010, long before secretaries of state were household names, she authored State Secretaries of State: Guardians of the Democratic Process. More than a decade later, there’s more attention on secretaries of state than ever after an election in which their power over election rules came into clear focus.“I’ve been really gratified that there is increased attention on these positions. And then also similarly really dismayed to see people seeking to fill these roles who have no interest in protecting or serving or expanding democracy,” she said. “I’m deeply concerned about the actual harm that election deniers can do through these offices. And I’m just as concerned about the misinformation that they may validate and spread about their colleagues, about their systems, through these positions. And how that cumulatively will dismantle potentially from within.“And then all of that is just metastasized when you have someone like that in a battleground state. Like in Michigan. Or in Georgia. Where they’re going to get extra pressure, as Brad Raffensperger did in Georgia. And you know, what if they say, ‘yes, I will find those 11,000 votes’ next time?” she added, alluding to an infamous Trump call during the 2020 election.When Benson meets people on the campaign trail who still doubt the results of the last presidential election, she listens and tries to narrow down what the specific questions they have are. “I want every voter to have rightly placed faith in the system. Because they should,” she said. “I welcome the questions. I welcome the scrutiny. Because I have so much faith in the security of the elections.”But Benson also recognizes that there are some instances when, despite her position, she might not be able to get through to someone. “There are some cases in which someone else answering them, like a Republican state senator, Ed McBroom, may be more effective. They may be more likely to hear the answer from someone else. So if that happens, then you adjust accordingly,” she said.“I think ultimately if people are willing to listen to each other, and if people are willing to listen to the facts, we can get to a place, even not all the time, but sometimes, where folks understand or are willing to entertain the possibility that they have been misled,” she said.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022MichiganUS politicsRepublicansDemocratsUS elections 2020interviewsReuse this content More

‘A huge opportunity’: California Republicans eye school board electionsIdeological divisions over the pandemic as well as race and LGBTQ+ issues see Republicans target school board positions In this year’s hotly-contested midterm elections, California Republicans have organized to tap into political divisions and anger over the pandemic to win seats in an office that previously was rarely on the radar of the wider public: the school board.Across the US, the nonpartisan boards responsible for overseeing public schools have attracted increased attention amid uproar over pandemic-era school shutdowns and sharpening ideological divisions over issues like race, gender and sexuality.How to beat a book ban: students, parents and librarians fight backRead moreIn deep blue California, where 2,500 school board positions overseeing the state’s 10,000 public schools are up for elections, Republican party organizers in the state have identified the boards as an opportunity to expand its footprint, setting up an organization to help parents run for office. “We saw a huge opportunity,” Jessica Millan Patterson, the California Republican party chair, told the Redding Record Searchlight. “Parents had awakened to what was happening in our schools.” Jessica Millan Patterson and California’s Republican party did not respond to a request for comment by publication deadline.Earlier this year, the Republican party launched the Parent Revolt program aimed at recruiting and supporting conservative parents to run for office. The program has offered workshops and virtual events with tips and advice on how to run for office and the various roles and responsibilities of education officials. At least 100 people attended virtual and in-person events in April and July put on by the party, which offers training but not financial support, CalMatters reported.On the its website, the program encourages parents to run against the “radical left”, leaning into the divisive language that has characterized the school debate at the national level. “Powerful interest groups control our public schools,” the program warns, urging parents to run if they want “school boards to prioritize what’s best for parents and students instead of the radical left”.Meanwhile, Reform California, a conservative Pac, has also led efforts to train school board candidates as part of a campaign to improve education and protect children from “from toxic and divisive curriculum” such as critical race theory, the academic practice of examining racism in US laws and society that conservatives sometimes use as a catch-all for curriculum related to race.The surge in interest in school boards in California is reflective of greater interest nationally, said John Rogers, a professor of education at UCLA, and a broader campaign for political power on the part of some conservative politicians, philanthropists and thinktanks.“There was a sense on the part of some conservatives that cultural issues as they were playing out in public schools and public frustration over the pandemic created a fertile ground for advancing a political effort,” Rogers said.School boards took on a higher profile across the US during the pandemic amid growing frustrations about school closures, becoming battlegrounds for culture wars as schools debated how to resume in-person classes. Rowdy parents disrupted meetings, refused to wear masks and even threatened school board members – some boards had to end meetings due to the disruptions.US students on why affirmative action is crucial: ‘They need our voices’Read moreFollowing the racial justice protests of 2020, local school board meetings, along with state legislatures, were the site of protests and tense debate about “critical race theory” and LGBTQ+ issues. The uproar, fueled in part by a conservative activist who has demonized curriculum related to race and sexuality, led to increased parent engagement in local school board meetings.Last year, the National School Board Association, a nonpartisan federation of state school board organizations and education lobbying group, asked the Biden administration for federal assistance in response to threats and violence against education officials over Covid restrictions and propaganda about curriculum related to race and diversity amid a panic over critical race theory.In California, Rogers said, “I think school boards were seen as a space in which the Republican party might be able to take some action and assert power. There’s a frustration on the part of parents that the Republican party thought it could tap into and parts of the state might be responsive to these culturally divisive arguments being advanced elsewhere.”It’s not yet clear how the effort will pay off, he said – school board elections don’t have polling and often fly under the radar, which could help Republicans: “School boards represent a site where it may be more likely they can gain some power precisely because those races have received less attention.”The participation of parents and community members in schools is important, Rogers added, but the politicization of the typically nonpartisan board could have worrying impacts, including less social trust and less desire to invest in public schools.Republicans’ classroom gagging bills are ‘attack on education’, report saysRead moreCalifornia’s school board association warned last year that officials were seeing an “unprecedented increase in hostility” in every corner of the state and deliberate attempts to shut down meetings.“We’ve never seen something occurring with this wide of a scope all across California,” Troy Flint, a CSBA spokesperson,said at the time. “The extreme partisanship that is increasingly a part of American life is rearing its head in school board discussions.”Some of the school board candidates running this year in the state have received attention for questioning the result of the 2020 election, opposing the Covid vaccine and are critical of teaching students curriculum about LGBTQ+ people. In Sacramento, a member of the Proud Boys who has pledged to “fight cultural Marxism” is running for the school board – the Republican party did not endorse him.TopicsUS educationRepublicansCaliforniaUS politicsfeaturesReuse this content More

AnalysisOhio’s partisan supreme court election could decide abortion’s future in statePoppy NoorThe midterms include key elections to the state’s highest court as the judicial system becomes increasingly politicized In Ohio, a highly partisan fight over three state supreme court seats could determine the political direction of the court on a slew of important issues – particularly abortion.With the US supreme court increasingly handing issues such as voting rights, abortion, gun rights and gerrymandering back to the states, state supreme court races are becoming more important than ever.Abortion on the ballot: here are the US states voting on a woman’s right to chooseRead moreFew states illustrate how political these courts are becoming better than Ohio, where justices’ party affiliation will be listed on the ballot for the first time in the 8 November election, and where the justices on that court will soon determine the fate of the state’s six-week abortion ban that has been blocked and unblocked by lower courts since Roe v Wade was overturned early in the summer. Abortion is currently legal in the state up to 22 weeks, as the ban is being litigated.As a result of the stakes, more cash is also pouring into state supreme court races around the country from political action committees associated with the national parties. Fair Courts America, a Pac associated with the Republican party, has pledged $22.5m for state supreme court races this election cycle, to support conservative judicial candidates in Kentucky, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.In Kentucky, that same Pac has donated $1.6m to three conservative judges vying for election. One of those judges, Joe Fischer, is a former Republican congressman who was the key sponsor of the state’s trigger ban on abortion that went into effect when Roe was overturned, as well as an anti-abortion referendum that’s being put to Kentucky voters next week.“People used to spend all their time looking at the federal constitution for protections, particularly when it came to individual rights. But now the US supreme court is basically saying these matters are better left resolved in the state courts and their state constitutions,” explains Bill Weisenberg, a former assistant executive director of the Ohio State Bar Association.In Ohio, after Roe fell, ending the federal constitutional right to abortion, the state implemented a ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy. That ban is currently being blocked by a lower state court, but ultimately, it will land with the state supreme court. And the election of certain justices will be pivotal in determining the future of the ban.The seven-justice Ohio supreme court currently has four Republican justices and three Democratic justices. The current chief justice, Maureen O’Connor, a Republican, is not seeking re-election this year because of age limits, so two other sitting justices, Republican Sharon Kennedy and Democrat Jennifer Brunner, will battle it out to replace her in the top spot. Two incumbent Republican justices, Pat DeWine and Pat Fischer will face Democratic challengers Marilyn Zayas and Terri Jamison, for seats on the court.O’Connor, the chief justice who is standing down, was a Republican-affiliated judge who was happy to break with the party line on issues such as gerrymandering. She has never openly indicated where she stands on abortion.But all three Republican justices up for election on Tuesday have stated on candidate surveys that they believe there is no constitutional right to abortion, according to local news, meaning their elections could strike a fatal blow to abortion rights in Ohio.They also came under fire in September for attending a Trump rally where the former president repeated baseless claims about the 2020 election being stolen, and for subsequently refusing to confirm that the results of the 2020 election were valid. One of those justices – Pat DeWine – is also under scrutiny for having liked a tweet promoting a conspiracy theory about the violent attack on the husband of the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, asking “what are they hiding?” He has since said he clicked “like” inadvertently.Meanwhile, Zayas, Jamison and Brunner have publicly stated that they believe the Ohio constitution protects the right to abortion.Weisenberg cautions that neither political affiliation, nor what a justice indicates of their views before their election, are watertight indicators for how they will rule once they are on the supreme court. “People are surprised sometimes when they read the opinion and it’s not in keeping with where they thought the justice would lean, or what they had said on a prior occasion,” he said.Indeed, the US supreme court justices Brett Kavanaugh and Samuel Alito indicated they believed the constitutional right to abortion was settled precedent before being confirmed to the court.TopicsOhioAbortionReproductive rightsRoe v WadeUS justice systemUS midterm elections 2022US politicsanalysisReuse this content More

AnalysisWe need serious public policy, not more printed money – the US economy is in tattersDoug HenwoodDecades of bailouts have convinced some that the Fed will always come to the rescue – but this only papers over the fundamental flaws of the US economy With the Federal Reserve leading the world’s central banks in a tightening cycle of interest rate rises, the likes of which we haven’t seen since 2006, commentators across the political spectrum are noting the fondness of the Fed chair, Jerome “Jay” Powell, for his legendary predecessor, Paul Volcker. On the left, the comparison is fearful; on the center and on the right, it’s one of admiration. But circumstances don’t really support the comparison.Fed announces sixth consecutive hike in US interest rates to fight inflationRead moreOn taking office in October 1979, Volcker declared “the standard of living of the average American has to decline” as a consequence of the war against the chronic inflation of the 1970s. He quickly set to work making that happen by driving interest rates up towards 20% and creating the deepest US recession since the 1930s.That squeeze did put an end to high inflation but at a tremendous social cost. Six million people lost their jobs over the next three years, taking the unemployment rate from 6% to almost 11% in late 1982. The cost wasn’t merely short-term. About half of those job losses were categorized as permanent, as opposed to being temporary layoffs, many of them in the manufacturing heartland. The term “rust belt” entered common usage.Volcker was appointed by Jimmy Carter, who seemed to have no idea of what he was getting himself into. His friend and adviser, the Georgia banker Bert Lance, prophetically warned him that he was dooming his prospects in the 1980s election. But Carter listened to the consensus of Wall Street and the political class – Volcker was the man to tame inflation, which was running around 13% at the end of 1979. The US had seen inflation rates that high before, but never outside of major wars or their immediate aftermath. Inflation, which was under 2% in 1965, had been rising relentlessly for 15 years, barely pausing even in the nasty recession of the mid-1970s. Contrary to a belief popular on the left, that inflation was not kind to workers. Wages badly lagged prices, and real average hourly earnings fell 14% between 1973 and 1980.There are some similarities between the present and 40 years ago. Then, as now, food and energy prices were important factors in sparking inflation, but in both cases, even if you strip out those two volatile components, a severe inflation remains. And in both cases, polls have shown inflation to be deeply unpopular.But there are also major differences, notably in the strength of labor. At the end of the 1970s, almost a quarter of all workers were unionized; now only about a tenth are. Then, an average of 22,000 workdays were lost to strikes every year; last year it was just 1,500 – a decline of 93%. The early 1980s recession hammered the bargaining power of the working class. Unions were busted, and we went from a time when Take This Job and Shove It could be a hit song (as it was in 1977) to one where workers were grateful to have any job at all, no matter how tenuous and low-paying. As the recession ended in late 1982, the stock market took off and the employer class began a 40-year celebration of its triumph.That’s not the world Powell finds himself in. Inflation has been a problem for close to 15 months rather than 15 years, and although there are some tentative signs of life in the labor movement – notably at one Amazon site and a few hundred Starbucks outlets (out of 9,000) – the share of the labor force represented by unions fell last year, and strike activity so far in 2022 is about a third lower than in 2021. Unlike the inflation of the 1970s, this is not the wage-push kind (to use the jargon). It’s been driven first by supply chain blockages, thanks to Covid, and extended by embargoes against Russian energy exports, and most workers are just looking on helplessly as their paychecks fail to keep up with price increases.There’s another difference as well: we’re coming off a decade of extremely indulgent monetary policy. Coming out of the Great Recession, the Fed kept short-term interest rates near zero between 2011 and 2021, with the brief exception when they pushed them up to just over 2% in 2017 and 2018 (still quite low by historical standards). On top of that, the central bank pumped over $3tn (£2.7tn) into the financial markets between 2008 and 2015, and almost $5tn between early 2020 and early 2022. The earlier pumping was meant to prevent a financial implosion after the sub-prime crisis, and the latter to counter the threats of the early pandemic months. But the result of both has been to stimulate crazy inflation in asset prices – stocks, crypto, unicorns, housing – a remarkable waste of capital and one that can be very risky to deflate. Decades of bailouts have convinced financial market players that the Fed will always come in to rescue them and reversing that mentality could require a Volckerish austerity for Wall Street – one that’s politically hard to imagine.The Fed’s interest rate hikes are going to hit the most vulnerable | Dean BakerRead moreWhat Powell is up to now bears almost no resemblance to Volcker’s clampdown. The federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend each other money overnight – that is the Fed’s most direct policy target – changed from just above 0% to just under 4% after raising the target rate another 0.75 points this week. That’s almost 15 points below the Volcker peak. In real terms – deducting the rate of inflation – Volcker’s peak was almost 10%, a lot higher. Right now, the real fed funds rate is around -4% (yes, that’s a negative sign). Powell may admire Volcker, but next to him, he’s a piker.The debate over monetary policy overlooks a more important issue. That decade of cheap money papered over a lot of fundamental problems with the US economy: low levels of public and private investment, massive polarization between rich and poor and unstable employment for much of the labor force. These should be addressed with serious public policy, not by printing money. It would be nice if we talked about that, but given the degraded state of American political discourse, I’m not hopeful.
Doug Henwood is an economic journalist based in Brooklyn. His radio show, Behind the News, airs on KPFA radio in Berkeley, and is available on all the standard podcast outlets
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From George Floyd to Hunter Biden: Lachlan Murdoch, Fox News and the year that tested America In an extract from his biography The Successor, Paddy Manning considers how Rupert Murdoch’s favored son dealt with the challenges of 2020, and what might come nextThe murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin on 25 May 2020, captured on video, turned Black Lives Matter into the biggest protest movement in the history of the United States, with more than 15 million people turning out to demonstrations, some of them violent, in 550 towns and cities across the country.Murdoch’s succession: who wins from move to reunite Fox and News Corp?Read moreFox News had a history of antipathetic coverage of BLM, which took off after the police killing of an 18-year-old Black man, Michael Brown, in Ferguson, Missouri, in 2014. Former primetime host Megyn Kelly subverted the narrative, asserting that Brown’s reported last words, “Hands up, don’t shoot,” were a lie, and that Brown was the aggressor. Twenty-six-year-old Fox Nation host Tomi Lahren described Black Lives Matter as “the new KKK”. Fox commentators had also defended police and rejected claims of systemic racial injustice in America. Nevertheless, the public reaction to Floyd’s murder was on a completely different scale to earlier protests, and it took place amid swirling speculation that Donald Trump would declare martial law.On the Monday morning, Lachlan Murdoch tried to set a conciliatory tone in an internal statement, urging Fox employees to “come together in their grief, work to heal, and coalesce to address injustice and inequity in our country”. After the tragic death of George Floyd, Murdoch continued:.css-lf9l6c{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#866D50;}It is essential that we grieve with the Floyd family, closely listen to the voices of peaceful protest and fundamentally understand that Black Lives matter. The FOX culture embraces and fosters diversity and inclusion. Often we speak of the ‘FOX Family,’ and never has the need to depend on and care for that family been more important. We support our Black colleagues and the Black community, as we all unite to seek equality and understanding … This is an ongoing conversation, and no one has all the answers in this moment.Some of Fox’s highest-profile commentators seemed to miss Lachlan’s memo. That same night, Tucker Carlson bemoaned the protests. “The nation went up in flames this weekend,” he opined. “No one in charge stood up to save America. Our leaders dithered and they cowered, and they openly sided with the destroyers, and in many cases, they egged them on … The worst people in our society have taken control.” Laura Ingraham blamed Antifa and “other radical elements” and said the death of Floyd had nothing to do with the violence, which was “part of a coordinated effort to eventually overthrow the United States government”. Days later, Fox News had to apologize after an episode of Special Report with Bret Baier aired a chart showing how the stock market had rallied in the days immediately after the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr in 1968, the bashing of Rodney King in 1991, and the more recent killings of Michael Brown and George Floyd. Fox acknowledged the chart was insensitive and Baier apologized for a “major screw-up”. There followed an internal phone hook-up with many of its Black staffers, led by Scott, to discuss the network’s racist and hostile rhetoric towards the BLM protests. The open forum was unprecedented, but Lachlan wasn’t there and it resolved little.As the protests dragged on, Carlson only grew more strident, attacking the president for failing to re-establish law and order, calling BLM a “terror organization” and Minneapolis “our Wuhan”. In early July, CNN discovered that Carlson’s chief writer, Blake Neff, had for years been using a pseudonym to post a stream of bigoted remarks denigrating African Americans, Asian Americans, and women on an online forum, AutoAdmit, that was a hotbed for racist, sexist and other offensive content. Fox accepted Neff’s resignation within hours of CNN’s inquiry and Suzanne Scott and Jay Wallace condemned his “horrific racist, misogynistic and homophobic behavior”, saying neither the show nor the network had known of the forum and there was zero tolerance for such behavior “at any time in any part of our workforce”.More mainstream advertisers abandoned Carlson and Lachlan personally approved the comments Tucker made about Neff’s resignation in his next show. Carlson refused management requests to pre-tape the comments and struck a defiant tone, suggesting he knew he had Lachlan’s full backing. Dissociating himself from Neff’s posts, Tucker added, “we should also point out to the ghouls beating their chests in triumph of the destruction of a young man that self-righteousness also has its cost … when we pose as blameless in order to hurt other people, we are committing the gravest sin of all, and we will be punished for it, there’s no question.” Tucker announced he was going on a week’s vacation, effective immediately, which he insisted was “long planned”. One staffer told the Daily Beast off the record that Fox News had “created a white supremacist cell inside the top cable network in America, the one that directly influences the president … this is rank racism excused by Murdoch.”It was all too much for James Murdoch, who had been negotiating an exit for some months, hoping to sever his connection to the family business. At the end of July, James sent a two-line letter of resignation to the board of News Corp, effective that day, with only the briefest explanation: “My resignation is due to disagreements over certain editorial content published by the Company’s news outlets and certain other strategic decisions.” In a bland joint statement, Rupert and Lachlan thanked James for his service and wished him well.James continued, of course, as beneficiary of a one-sixth share of the Murdoch Family Trust, which ultimately controlled both Fox and News Corp. In a sit-down interview with the New York Times a few months later, James told Maureen Dowd that he felt he could have little influence as a non-executive director, wanted a cleaner slate and “pulled the ripcord” because:.css-lf9l6c{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#866D50;}I reached the conclusion that you can venerate a contest of ideas, if you will, and we all do and that’s important. But it shouldn’t be in a way that hides agendas. A contest of ideas shouldn’t be used to legitimize disinformation. And I think it’s often taken advantage of. And I think at great news organizations, the mission really should be to introduce fact to disperse doubt – not to sow doubt, to obscure fact, if you will.It was a direct shot at Lachlan, whose mantra was to defend free speech, even that of commentators he did not agree with from time to time, and apparently regardless of whether the speaker was spreading disinformation.Dowd canvassed a scenario which was doubtless briefed by James and which could give Lachlan nightmares. Despite appearances, she wrote, the succession game may not truly be over: “Murdoch watchers across media say James is aligned with his sister Elisabeth and his half-sister, Prudence, even as he is estranged from his father and brother.”Alan Rusbridger: who broke the news?Read moreIt was true that there had been a thawing of the relationship between James and Elisabeth, which had come apart during the phone hacking crisis of 2011, when Murdoch titles were pitched into controversy in the UK. When James bought Tribeca Enterprises, which ran the famous New York Film Festival, Liz soon joined the board. The implied threat from the Dowd piece was clear: once their father was gone, when control of the empire passed to the four elder siblings, each with an equal vote on the Murdoch Family Trust, Lachlan could find himself getting rolled by James, Liz, and Prue, who were generally more liberal than Rupert.In a plausible scenario, after Rupert has died and his shares are dispersed among the four adult children, the three on the other side of Lachlan could choose to manifest control over all of the Murdoch businesses, and to do it in a way that enhances democracies around the world rather than undermines them. In this scenario, the role of Fox News has become so controversial inside the family that control of the trust is no longer just about profit and loss at the Murdoch properties. In one view that has currency among at least some of the Murdoch children, it is in the long-term interests for democracies around the world for there to be four shareholders in the family trust who are active owners in the business. Just such a scenario is freely canvassed by investors: a Wall Street analyst who has covered the Murdoch business for decades and is completely au fait with the breakdown in the relationship between the brothers, volunteers off the record that it would be “fair to assume Lachlan gets fired the day Rupert dies”.It is a formula for instability and intra-family feuds that must weigh on the minds of directors of both Fox and News Corporation as they contemplate the mortality of the 91-year-old founder, although they deny it. A source close to members of the Murdoch family questions the extent of succession planning by the boards of Fox or News Corporation and whether discussions among the directors can be genuinely independent, as corporate governance experts would like.“Rupert has total control over all the companies as long as he is alive,” the source says. “It’s an unrealistic expectation that the boards of those companies are going to use their voices to manifest independence. What is their succession plan? What if something happens to Lachlan? Do they put Viet in charge?”At the same time James announced his resignation from the News Corp board, he and Kathryn were ploughing millions into climate activism, the defeat of Trump, and other political causes. The couple had invested $100m worth of Disney shares into their foundation, Quadrivium, and through 2020 were heavy backers of mostly Democratic-leaning outfits, including $1.2m to the Biden Victory Fund and a handful of anti-Trump Republican organizations such as Defending Democracy Together, led by Bill Kristol. That was only some of the couple’s total political funding. A year later, CNBC obtained a Quadrivium tax return showing donations of $38m toward election organizations, including those dedicated to protecting voting rights.Lachlan’s personal political donations through the 2020 cycle were much smaller and were overwhelmingly directed towards the GOP, according to Federal Election Commission records. The politician he favored most was Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, an establishment Republican who made a calculated decision to become Trump’s “enabler-in-chief ” and was married to Trump’s transportation secretary, Taiwanese-born Elaine Chao, a former director of News Corp. Lachlan contributed $31,000 in four donations in March, including to the Bluegrass Committee for Kentucky Republicans. Ten days after the November election, Lachlan made a much bigger personal donation, of $1m, to the Senate Leadership Fund, which had one goal: protecting the Republican Senate majority. Lachlan did make one small donation on the Democrats’ side in the 2020 cycle, after he attended a fundraiser for Democratic candidate Pete Buttigieg, the gay ex-mayor of South Bend, Indiana, pledging $1,500 to his campaign. Realizing the potential for embarrassment, he asked for it back and was duly refunded.Fox’s profitability fell by more than two-thirds in the June quarter, which would later prove to be the low point of the pandemic, as sports leagues went dark and general ad revenue collapsed. Fox News was the only bright spot, accounting for 90% of operating profit, despite advertiser boycotts of Tucker Carlson Tonight, as the 2020 presidential election campaign intensified.Three weeks out from polling day, on 14 October, the New York Post broke a story that might have influenced the outcome of the 2020 election. It had obtained a trove of messages, documents, photos and videos “purportedly” recovered from a laptop belonging to Hunter Biden, son of the Democratic presidential candidate, which had been taken to a Delaware computer shop for repair in 2019 and never picked up. The computer shop owner was a Trump supporter and handed the water-damaged laptop to the FBI, but also sent a copy of the hard drive to Rudy Giuliani, who had long sought to tarnish Joe Biden with conflict-of-interest allegations concerning his son’s involvement with the Ukrainian oil and gas company Burisma. The Post story zeroed in on a “smoking gun” email sent to Hunter in 2015 by Vadym Pozharskyi, an adviser to Burisma. The email read: “Dear Hunter, thank you for inviting me to DC and giving an opportunity to meet your father and spent [sic] some time together.”According to the Post, the email gave the lie to Joe Biden’s claim that he had “never spoken to my son about his overseas business dealings.” However, it was not clear whether Pozharskyi had in fact ever met with Biden, who as vice-president had handled the Ukraine portfolio for President Obama, and the Biden campaign explicitly denied it, after going back over his official schedule.However irresistible the story was to the Post and its warhorse editor Col Allan, the rest of the mainstream media was exceedingly wary. The Post would not provide a copy of the laptop or hard drive to allow other media to verify the contents. The timing was transparently intended to damage the Biden campaign and memories remained fresh of the FBI’s momentous decision to investigate Hillary Clinton in the final days of the 2016 election campaign, after emails stolen by Russian operatives were dumped online by WikiLeaks. Twitter and Facebook intervened dramatically to stop circulation of the Post story. Twitter even temporarily locked White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany’s account, as well as that of the Post itself. More than 50 intelligence experts signed an open letter stating that the story “has all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation”. The Times reported that at least two Post journalists had refused to put their byline on the laptop story, while the lead reporter, Emma-Jo Morris, had not had a previous byline with the paper. Furthermore, News Corp stablemate the Wall Street Journal had been offered much the same story before the Post but concluded the central claims could not be proved. The whole story failed to gain much traction beyond the Post, Fox News, and avowedly rightwing media like Breitbart.Trump seized classified documents – but for Republicans the story is Hunter Biden’s laptop | Lawrence DouglasRead morePost-election, Hunter Biden would reveal that he was under federal investigation for tax offenses and over the following year and a half, the industrial scale of his influence-peddling became clearer, including possible breaches of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, the same legislation that Trump’s 2016 campaign manager, Paul Manafort, had pled guilty to violating. In mid-2021, the Post revealed that Joe Biden had indeed met Pozharskyi in 2015, and in early 2022, both the New York Times and the Washington Post reported that independent experts had examined the files which purported to be from Hunter Biden’s laptop and they appeared genuine. That did not prove Hunter Biden was guilty of anything, of course, only that the laptop was his. But for his part, Lachlan believed that an important news story about the Bidens had been deliberately suppressed by the tech companies and a liberal-leaning media, saying much later:.css-lf9l6c{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#866D50;}… had the laptop belonged to another candidate’s son, it would certainly have been the only story you would have heard in the final weeks of the election. But lies were concocted: ‘the laptop was hacked, or stolen;’ it was not. Or ‘it was Russian disinformation;’ it was not, and the story was completely suppressed. It was censored by EVERYONE.The scene was set for one of the most contentious presidential elections in American history.
The Successor: The High-Stakes Life of Lachlan Murdoch will be published in the US by Sutherland House on 15 November
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Republicans appear better positioned than ever ahead of midtermsHistory shows that the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm, and Democrats seem likely to follow that pattern With just a few days left before polls close in America’s crucial midterm elections, Republicans appear better positioned than ever to regain control of the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate as well.History shows that the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections, and despite some optimistic signs over the summer, Democrats now seem likely to follow that pattern on 8 November.How Republicans’ racist attack ads wiped out Democrat’s lead in WisconsinRead moreRepublicans’ prospects have grown brighter as more voters identify the economy as their top priority, after many Democrats spent the summer campaigning on the importance of abortion rights following the supreme court’s reversal of Roe v Wade in June.An ABC News/Ipsos poll taken last week showed that 49% of Americans named the economy or inflation as the most important issue determining their vote for Congress, compared to 14% who said the same of abortion.Surveys show Republicans enjoy an advantage with voters when it comes to economic concerns, and the party’s candidates have gained steam in the polls as Americans fret over rising prices and the possibility of a recession. Republicans now hold a 1.3-point advantage over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. One survey from the Republican polling firm Cygnal found the party with a three-point lead on the generic ballot, representing a four-point swing in five weeks.“I expect the GOP to add another one to two points to their generic lead in the closing week,” Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s president and founder, said. “It’s much better to be a Republican candidate right now than a Democratic one.”Given Democrats’ narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress, Republicans only need to flip a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat to regain control, and they are heavily favored to capture control of at least one if not both chambers.This week, the Cook Political Report moved another 10 House seats in Republicans’ direction, underscoring how Democrats have been forced to fight on an expanded map in the final weeks before election day. Congressional districts that Joe Biden won by double digits two years ago now appear to be in play, which has forced Democrats to defend seats previously considered to be safe. Republicans will also enjoy the benefits of a favorable round of redistricting following the 2020 census, which allowed the party to reconfigure the House map in a number of battleground states.On Wednesday, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Super Pac supporting House Republicans, announced a $5.6m ad blitz in Democratic-held districts that had attracted little attention earlier in the campaign cycle. The CLF is spending $1.8m to try to unseat Congressman Sean Casten, whose seat was just moved from likely Democratic to lean Democratic by the Cook Political Report. Biden carried Casten’s district in the suburbs of Chicago by 11 points in 2020.“Enthusiasm behind Republicans’ fight to win the House majority continues to grow every day,” said Dan Conston, the president of CLF. “All cycle we made it our priority to expand the map as far as possible and late breakers are giving us the opportunity to press even deeper in the final stretch.”Democrats’ Senate prospects appear similarly grim. As of this week, FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans the narrowest of advantages to take back the Senate, marking the first since July that Democrats were not favored to maintain control of the upper chamber. Democratic incumbents previously expected to hold on to their seats have watched their polling advantages vanish in the past month.One poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center showed the Democratic senator Maggie Hassan trailing her Republican opponent, Don Bolduc, by one point, marking a seven-point swing in a month. On Thursday, Republican Herschel Walker also took the lead in the Georgia Senate race for the first time since June, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. The Democratic senator Raphael Warnock has been unable to establish a clear lead in the race, despite recent accusations that Walker pressured two women into having abortions.Democrats contend that early voting data provides a reason for optimism about keeping the Senate, as more than 35 million Americans have already cast their ballots. In states such as Arizona and Pennsylvania, which could determine control of the Senate, Democrats make up a greater share of the early voting population than they did in 2018. But given Donald Trump’s attempts to raise baseless doubts about the legitimacy of voting by mail, more Republicans are expected to show up at the polls on election day, and that could erase Democrats’ early advantage.In a speech delivered near the Capitol on Wednesday, Biden sounded clear-eyed about his party’s midterm prospects. Expressing grave concern about the recent attack on the husband of the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and the rise in violent rhetoric among some Republican lawmakers, Biden urged Americans to consider the fate of their democracy as they head to cast their ballots.“This is no ordinary year. So I ask you to think long and hard about the moment we’re in,” Biden said. “In a typical year, we’re often not faced with questions of whether the vote we cast will preserve democracy or put us at risk. But this year, we are. This year, I hope you will make the future of our democracy an important part of your decision to vote and how you vote.”As of now, Biden’s pro-democracy message does not appear to be resonating with enough voters to avoid a Democratic rout on Tuesday. If current trends hold, a Republican wave could crash over the country next week.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsRepublicansDemocratsnewsReuse this content More