US Politics

Analyst David Shor and Jonathan Freedland look at the data and the polls and discuss why the Democrats should be worried – and what they need to do to improve their chances of winning the next presidential election

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When Joe Biden became the 46th US president in 2020 many Democrats were celebrating, but one – the data analyst David Shor – was nervous. After crunching the numbers and looking at the extensive data, David believes that if the Democrats continue as they are, the party is going to lose the next presidential election. The 30-year-old prodigy is one of the most in demand data analysts in the US – to such an extent that Politico has written an article about him entitled “The cult of Shor”. So what data has he seen to cause him such alarm? And what should the Democrats be doing to get back on track? David Shor talks problem and remedy with Jonathan Freedland. Archive: Freedom News TV Send us your questions and feedback to [email protected] Help support the Guardian by going to gu.com/supportpodcasts More

The New York governor Andrew Cuomo resigned this week after 11 women came forward with sexual harassment claims, ending the career of one of the most prominent politicians in the US

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Andrew Cuomo, the governor of the state of New York, resigned this week after the publication of a report alleging that he sexually harassed 11 women. Cuomo denies any wrongdoing but after fighting on for a week announced he would step aside on Tuesday. Ed Pilkington, the chief reporter of Guardian US, tells Rachel Humphreys that the move marks the downfall of one of the most powerful figures in the Democratic party. He was instrumental in passing liberal reforms on gay marriage, minimum wage and strengthening laws on sexual harassment. But the release of the report documents another story: of multiple allegations of harassment of women. As previous allies deserted him, up to and including Joe Biden, Cuomo announced his departure but continued to deny all allegations. Now, as he ponders his next move, he faces lawsuits, not just over sexual harassment claims, but over his handling of care homes in the Covid crisis. More

Fight to voteCensusUS population now less than 60% white, 2020 census finds Minority groups see large growth as data underscores what’s at stake as lawmakers begin process of drawing political maps Sam Levine in New YorkThu 12 Aug 2021 16.44 EDTLast modified on Thu 12 Aug 2021 16.46 EDTAmerica’s white population declined over the last decade while US metro areas were responsible for almost all of the country’s population growth, according to significant new data released Thursday by the US census bureau.Sign up for the Guardian’s Fight to Vote newsletterOverall, the white-alone population fell by 8.6% since 2010, the bureau said on Thursday. Non-hispanic whites now account for around 58% of America’s population, a drop from 2010 when they made up 63.7% of the population. It was the first time that the non-hispanic white population has fallen below 60% since the census began.Meanwhile, there was significant growth among minority groups over the last decade. The Hispanic or Latino population grew by 23%, while the Asian alone population surged by over 35%. The Black population also increased by more than 5.6%.The data underscores what’s at stake as lawmakers begin the process of drawing political maps that will be in place for the next decade. Relying on the data released Thursday, lawmakers across the country will carve up the 435 districts in the US House of Representatives as well as state and legislative districts.Just as they did in 2010, Republicans are once again poised to dominate that process and will likely use that advantage to draw districts that will heavily advantage GOP candidates. Those maps could dilute the political voice of the same minority voters who are driving US population growth.The most diverse states in America, as measured by the bureau’s diversity index, were Hawaii, California, Nevada, Texas, Maryland, the District of Columbia, New Jersey and New York. In Texas, the white and Hispanic or Latino population are getting much closer. Whites made up 39.7% of the population, while Hispanics and Latinos made up 39.3%. The bureau also said there was a sharp spike in the number of people who identified as multiracial.“Our analysis of the 2020 census show that the US population is much more multiracial and more racially and ethnically diverse than what we measured in the past,” said Nicholas Jones, the director and senior adviser of race and ethnic research and outreach, in the census bureau’s population division.Overall, America’s population grew 7.4% over the last decade, the second slowest growth in US history. By comparison, the US population grew 9.7% between 2000 and 2010.Metro areas across the country were responsible for nearly all of that growth, said Marc Perry, a senior demographer at the bureau. “On average, smaller counties tended to lose population and the more populous counties tended to grow,” he said.The fastest growing of America’s largest cities was Phoenix, whose population increased by 11.2% over the last decade. The Arizona city overtook Philadelphia to become the fifth largest city in America. The largest city in America remains New York City, which grew to have 8.8 million people, a 7.7% increase from the last decade.“Many counties within metro areas saw growth, especially those in the south and west. However, as we’ve been seeing in our annual population estimates, our nation is growing slower than it used to,” Perry said. “This decline is evident at the local level where around 52% of the counties in the United States saw their 2020 census populations decrease from their 2010 census populations.”TopicsCensusFight to voteUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

TexasTexas senate passes voting restrictions bill after 15-hour filibuster by Democrat Carol Alvarado wears running shoes during marathon speech Civil arrest warrants delivered to 50 absent Democrats A More

US immigrationParents of 337 children separated at border under Trump still not foundActivists and Biden officials have helped reunite 861 children with their parents but 337 remain in limbo Maya YangThu 12 Aug 2021 12.06 EDTLast modified on Thu 12 Aug 2021 15.03 EDTUS officials still cannot find the parents of 337 children separated at the Mexico-border by the Trump administration.According to a new court filing released on Wednesday by the justice department and the American Civil Liberties Union, attorneys, activists and Biden officials have helped reunite 861 children with their parents but 337 remain in limbo.In February, the Biden administration launched the Family Reunification Task Force as part of its efforts to undo the Trump administration’s controversial “zero-tolerance” policy that called for the criminal prosecution of adults crossing the border. The policy resulted in thousands of families being separated and received severe backlash from human rights organizations and immigration advocacy groups. Forty-five separated children have been reunited with their families since the creation of FRTF.According to the filing, the 337 children fall into three groups. The first group consists of 250 children whose parents are believed to have been removed from the US after being separated from their children. The second group consists of approximately 75 children whose parents are believed to be in the US. The last group includes 12 children for whom the government has not provided a phone number for the parent, child, sponsor or attorney.In addition to attempts to reach parents, sponsors and attorneys by telephone, the taskforce has also engaged in on-the-ground searches for the parents, which have been largely focused in the countries of origin of the parents who were removed from the US after their separation from their children.Despite the government’s efforts to overhaul Trump’s “zero-tolerance” policy, Biden has warned migrants not to enter the US. In an interview with ABC in March, Biden said his message to migrants was: “Don’t come over. Don’t leave your town or city or community.”According to Customs and Border Protection, the number of migrants that reached the southern border in July was more than 200,000, a figure that had not been seen in 20 years.Among the 200,000 migrants was a “record” 19,000 unaccompanied minors, according to David Shahoulian, assistant secretary for border and immigration policy.TopicsUS immigrationTrump administrationBiden administrationUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

The fight to voteCensusCensus Bureau data out today will shape the redistricting fight of this decadeOf concern is a 2019 decision that gives lawmakers clearance to manipulate districts for political purposes The fight to vote is supported byAbout this contentSam Levine in New YorkThu 12 Aug 2021 10.00 EDTLast modified on Thu 12 Aug 2021 13.59 EDTSign up for the Guardian’s Fight to Vote newsletterHappy Thursday,It has arrived without much fanfare, but today is one of the most important days for the next decade of American politics.Later this afternoon, the Census Bureau will release the data that all 50 states will use to redraw their political maps. That includes congressional districts as well as state legislative and other local districts. It’s a process that the constitution mandates just once every 10 years, and is therefore hugely consequential.Almost every redistricting cycle is a nasty political battle over whose districts are preserved, cut and made more or less competitive. But observers are particularly concerned this time around.The next major US voting rights fight is here – and Republicans are aheadRead moreOne of the main reasons is a 2019 supreme court decision in a case called Common Cause v Rucho. In that case, the supreme court said for the first time that federal courts could not do anything to stop lawmakers from severely manipulating districts for political purposes. It’s a decision that could embolden lawmakers, who control the redistricting process, to tweak districts in a way that bakes in political wins for their respective parties. It will also be a boon to Republicans, who are poised to dominate the redistricting process this year.Another concern is the absence of federal oversight. In every redistricting cycle since 1965, the Voting Rights Act has required places with a history of voting discrimination to get their districts pre-approved by the justice department or a three-judge court in Washington DC before they go into effect. But because of a 2013 supreme court ruling, states are no longer required to obtain that pre-clearance. States may now seek to draw districts that weaken the influence of voters of color. Civil rights and other groups can still challenge the districts, but probably only after they go into effect. This means that elections could occur in these discriminatory districts as litigation moves slowly through the courts.One of the biggest issues is the data itself.There are lingering worries that the Census Bureau’s 2020 count was inaccurate and undercounted minority communities. While the bureau has repeatedly assured the public of its confidence in the data, experts will be combing through it to spot any anomalies.In a normal redistricting cycle, the data being released today would have been published much earlier in the year, giving states ample time to draw new maps before the midterm elections. But because of Covid-related delays with the 2020 census, the data is late. That’s another problem, because states face rapidly approaching deadlines to produce their maps for elections next year. Redistricting is a notoriously opaque process and the condensed timeline could allow lawmakers to rush plans through with little public input.Beyond redistricting, the census data is also expected to show just how fast America’s non-white population is growing. The new numbers are likely to confirm estimates that non-white people account for almost all of the population growth in the US, while the white population is shrinking, according to the Washington Post.Also worth watching …
The US Senate adjourned for its summer recess without passing a sweeping voting rights bill. While Democrats have pledged to bring a compromise bill for a vote in the fall, that may be too late to stop severe partisan gerrymandering, since mapmaking will already be under way in many places. There also still isn’t a clear plan for how Democrats will get around the filibuster, a Senate rule Republicans have used to block a vote on the legislation.
Texas Democrats remain outside the state, denying Republicans a legislative quorum to pass new voting restrictions. Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, ordered a second special session that began last weekend and the house has signed arrest warrants to bring lawmakers who return to Texas to the capitol. Those outside the state are beyond the jurisdiction of Texas law enforcement.
There’s growing concern that the independent panel in charge of drawing Michigan’s electoral maps may hire a law firm connected to Republicans to help it draw new districts.
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OpinionUS politicsWhat does Biden’s infrastructure bill tell us about the health of US democracy?David LittThis was the kind of bipartisan bill many observers never thought would be possible in 2021. But don’t be too quick to celebrate Thu 12 Aug 2021 06.27 EDTLast modified on Thu 12 Aug 2021 07.47 EDTIs Washington functional? This week would seem to suggest that the answer is a resounding and surprising yes. On Tuesday, 69 senators – 19 Republicans and 50 Democrats – passed the “Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework”, a $1tn bill that invests in everything from roads and bridges to electric grids and public transit.Kathy Hochul vows to change ‘toxic’ culture as she waits to become New York governorRead moreThis was the kind of bill many observers of American politics never thought would be possible in 2021: a major new piece of legislation that won support from both parties and will concretely improve people’s lives. The president, his staff and his allies are rightly proud of their big-deal infrastructure bill – and of the legislative skill it took to negotiate and pass it, and with final passage in the House all but inevitable, President Biden took a well-earned victory lap.“We proved that democracy can still work,” he said.But those words were clearly chosen carefully. Just because democracy can work does not mean democracy is working. In fact, a closer look at the bipartisan infrastructure framework – and the effort required to pass it – confirms just how much trouble American democracy is in.In a functioning political process, a major infrastructure bill like this one would never have passed during Joe Biden’s presidency – because it would have passed far earlier. As far back as 1998, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave America’s infrastructure a D, a grade which has barely improved in the years since. In 2007, a deadly bridge collapse in Minneapolis brought the issue of infrastructure funding to the foreground, and in 2008, both parties’ presidential candidates spoke about the importance of fixing our crumbling roads, bridges and highways. Even the Trump administration, with its endless parade of infrastructure weeks, acknowledged the importance of the issue even as they failed to address it.For well more than a decade, in other words, elected leaders of both parties have agreed the state of America’s infrastructure is a serious problem. Yet it wasn’t until this week that they finally did something about it. This hardly suggests our political process is functioning as it should.This years-long delay was even more remarkable when you consider that infrastructure investment has long enjoyed massive, bipartisan support among voters. According to Gallup, practically every poll in the last five years that asked about infrastructure found overwhelming support among Americans. In theory, supporting new infrastructure projects should have been popular no matter who was president. In practice, Republicans were more interested in spending money on tax cuts for the wealthy when they had full control of government, and in denying Democratic presidents victories when they did not.For more than 10 years, Republican elected officials concluded that the benefit of doing something the American people wanted was outweighed by the benefits of obstruction and rewarding their donors. Politically speaking, this may well have been the correct conclusion. But that suggests there’s something wrong with our political process itself.Particularly since the only thing that finally did get Republicans to the table on the infrastructure bill was the near-certainty that massive infrastructure investment was happening with or without them. For the first time since 2010, Democrats control both houses of Congress and the White House. Early in President Biden’s term, they committed to using reconciliation, which is immune to the Senate filibuster, to pass an infrastructure package.Republican lawmakers didn’t negotiate because they wanted to improve America’s infrastructure. They negotiated because obstruction was no longer an option. By helping to pass a bipartisan bill, they could at least get credit for popular items and perhaps convince Democratic centrists to pare down a future reconciliation package. Bipartisan legislation, in other words, was only made possible by the alternative possibility of extreme partisanship. That doesn’t change the importance of the bill – but it does suggest the process that led to its passage was hardly an inspiring display of country over party.So, yes, Washington proved that democracy can still work. But at the moment, American democracy works like this: if a large majority American people agree; and one party wins full control of Washington; and that party is able to find a procedural loophole that would let it take action without the Senate filibuster; and the president and his allies in Congress execute their legislative strategy near flawlessly; and we wait about 15 years; then politicians of both parties will come together and act. Such a political process is many things, but “functional” is not among them.And our democracy is poised to become much less functional very soon. If voting rights are further eroded, rampant partisan gerrymandering is allowed to go unchecked, and far-right judges continue to legislate from the bench without any real threat of court reform to moderate them, the gap between what the American people want and what Washington does will only widen.The same week the Senate passed the bipartisan infrastructure framework, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report declaring that we have reached “code red for humanity”. If governments don’t act soon on climate, the planet could become essentially uninhabitable, not in some hypothetical future, but within the lifetimes of Americans born today.Biden is right: this week, we proved democracy can work. But we were also reminded that we can no longer afford a democracy that works like this.
David Litt is an American political speechwriter and New York Times bestselling author of Thanks Obama, and Democracy In One Book Or Less. He edits How Democracy Lives, a newsletter on democracy reform
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