US Politics

The national director of No Labels, the third-party group which on Thursday said it would not run a candidate in the US presidential election, will now vote for Joe Biden, not Donald Trump.“Me, as a person?” Joe Cunningham told Fox News. “I would vote for Biden over Trump.”Cunningham did not elaborate. He was also offered the chance to choose Robert F Kennedy Jr, the vaccine sceptic and conspiracy theorist running as an independent.Asked why No Labels gave up on its quest, for which it said it raised $60m and secured ballot access in key states, Cunningham said: “No Labels was looking for a hero and a hero never emerged.“We’ve been very straightforward and upfront and honest with the American public that we were gonna field this ticket if two conditions were met. Number one, if Americans wanted another option, which is definitely, box is checked.”Biden and Trump are indeed historically unpopular. Kennedy has polled in double figures. But amid a barrage of warnings that a No Labels candidate stood to damage Biden most, amid warnings of Trump’s threat to US democracy, the group ultimately gave up on its search.“Number two,” Cunningham said, “if we’re able to find candidates that we believe have a pathway to victory. And that’s where we ran into the trouble. At the end of the day, we weren’t able to find candidates we felt had a straightforward path of victory.”Candidates courted reportedly included Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who opposed Trump longest in the Republican primary; Larry Hogan, the former Maryland governor now running for US Senate; Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor who ran an explicitly anti-Trump Republican primary campaign; and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, a former wrestler and Hollywood action star.No Labels also suffered a major blow last week with the death at 82 of its founding chair, Joe Lieberman, the former Democratic and independent senator and vice-presidential nominee.“The establishment does not reward dissent,” Cunningham said. “So we found it difficult to find the leaders to step up with the courage to be able to say, ‘OK, we are putting our country first, and, you know, damn the consequences within our respective parties.’”Groups opposed to the No Labels’ third-party effort celebrated its climbdown.Matt Bennett, of the centre-left group Third Way, said: “A year and a half ago, we were the first to warn that No Labels’ presidential bid was doomed, dangerous, and would divide the anti-Trump coalition. Joined by a wide array of allies, we waged a campaign to dissuade any serious candidate from joining their ticket.“We are deeply relieved that everyone rejected their offer, forcing them to stand down. While the threat of third-party spoilers remains, this uniquely damaging attack on President Biden and Democrats from the centre has at last ended.”On Friday, in a call with reporters and supporters, No Labels leaders said the group would stay engaged in election-year politics.Jay Nixon, a Democratic governor of Missouri turned director of No Labels ballot access efforts, said: “Twenty-one states, successful in any litigation we had, were were on a path to get that completed.”He also said: “This year we will pursue two goals at once. We will do all in our power … in the next seven months to ensure that the major [presidential] candidates compete for commonsense voters rather than speaking solely to their respective party bases. I think that is a significant responsibility.“This means defining the issues in this moment. [It] stands for border security, spending, the cost of living, supporting our allies abroad, all of that commonsense agenda …“That means also supporting commonsense congressional candidates that can serve as a check on the executive branch. On that front [we have a] very significant standard bearer in former [Maryland] governor Larry Hogan [who is] running for the Senate [as a Republican]. There are folks like that. He is not alone.”Nixon and other leaders who spoke on Friday did not say another presidential effort was on the horizon in 2028.But another senior No Labels official, Andy Bursky, told the Wall Street Journal: “I wouldn’t rule anything out. The organisation has not been beaten by this effort, it has been strengthened by this effort.” More

Robert F Kennedy Jr, the lawyer, conspiracy theorist and independent candidate for US president, vowed to investigate “whether prosecutorial discretion was abused for political ends” in convictions of January 6 rioters – just one day after his campaign said a fundraising reference to such prisoners as “activists” was an unfortunate error.In a statement on Friday, Kennedy said that as president, he would “appoint a special counsel – an individual respected by all sides – to investigate whether prosecutorial discretion was abused for political ends in this case, and I will right any wrongs that we discover”.On 6 January 2021, Donald Trump supporters attacked the US Capitol after the former president told them to “fight like hell” to block certification of his defeat by Joe Biden. Nine deaths are linked to the attack, including law enforcement suicides. More than 1,300 arrests have been made and nearly 1,000 convictions secured, some for seditious conspiracy. Some rioters have been held before trial.Trump was impeached for inciting an insurrection but acquitted when enough Senate Republicans stayed loyal. Now the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Trump has called January 6 prisoners “hostages” and “unbelievable patriots”; promoted a rendition of the national anthem performed in a Washington jail; and said that if re-elected, he will “free the January 6 hostages being wrongfully imprisoned”.Earlier this week, the Kennedy campaign ran into a media firestorm when a fundraising email referred to “J6 activists sitting in a Washington DC jail cell stripped of their constitutional liberties” and compared them to Edward Snowden, the National Security Agency whistleblower who lives in exile in Russia, and Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder held in the UK while the US seeks extradition.Amid uproar, a Kennedy spokesperson said: “That statement was an error that does not reflect Mr Kennedy’s views. It was inserted by a new marketing contractor and slipped through the normal approval process.”But on Friday, Kennedy indicated that he does think some January 6 prisoners might be activists wrongly imprisoned.“January 6 is one of the most polarising topics on the political landscape,” he said. “I am listening to people of diverse viewpoints on it in order to make sense of the event and what followed. I want to hear every side.“It is quite clear that many of the January 6 protesters broke the law in what may have started as a protest but turned into a riot. Because it happened with the encouragement of President Trump, and in the context of his delusion that the election was stolen from him, many people see it not as a riot but as an insurrection.“I have not examined the evidence in detail, but reasonable people, including Trump opponents, tell me there is little evidence of a true insurrection. They observe that the protesters carried no weapons, had no plans or ability to seize the reins of government, and that Trump himself had urged them to protest ‘peacefully’.”That statement was in accordance with others, collected by NBC News, in which Kennedy has questioned or dismissed the severity of events on January 6.View image in fullscreenFurthermore, the House committee that investigated January 6 detailed how protesters did carry weapons, some armed with guns; how Trump whipped up the crowd before belatedly appealing for calm; and how the riot followed lengthy attempts to find a legalistic way to keep Trump in power.“Like many reasonable Americans,” Kennedy continued, “I am concerned about the possibility that political objectives motivated the vigour of the prosecution of the J6 defendants, their long sentences, and their harsh treatment.”Echoing claims by Trump and Republicans in Congress, he said: “That would fit a disturbing pattern of the weaponisation of government agencies … against political opponents. One can, as I do, oppose Donald Trump and all he stands for, and still be disturbed by the weaponisation of government against him.”Kennedy polls in double figures, has attracted millions of dollars in donations, has named a running mate (Nicole Shanahan, an attorney) and is seeking ballot access in key states. But he remains most likely to act as a spoiler in November, siphoning votes from both candidates but, many observers think, doing more damage to Biden.In his Friday statement, Kennedy claimed to be following the example of the second US president, John Adams, “a staunch patriot” who in 1770 took on an unpopular task, “defend[ing] the British soldiers involved in the Boston Massacre”.Kennedy also said Democrats as well as Republicans were “using J6 to pour fuel on the fire of America’s divisions”, and charged both parties with “demonising … opponents as apocalyptic threats to democracy”.Many observers, however, view Kennedy himself as a threat to US democracy.On Friday, before Kennedy issued his statement about January 6, Rahna Epting of Move On, a progressive advocacy group, and Matthew Bennett of Third Way, a centre-left group, described to reporters plans to switch from campaigning against No Labels, the centrist group that dropped out of the presidential race this week, to targeting Kennedy and his campaign.“I want to be clear,” Epting said. “Robert Kennedy Jr’s ill-fated run for the presidency is helping put Donald Trump back in the White House and we’re going to work to stop that. Just as we organised against No Labels we’re going to organise against Robert Kennedy Jr. We’re going to let folks know we can’t win, but he can help Trump win.” More

Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, announced major changes to its policies on digitally created and altered media on Friday, before elections poised to test its ability to police deceptive content generated by artificial intelligence technologies.The social media giant will start applying “Made with AI” labels in May to AI-generated videos, images and audio posted on Facebook and Instagram, expanding a policy that previously addressed only a narrow slice of doctored videos, the vice-president of content policy, Monika Bickert, said in a blogpost.Bickert said Meta would also apply separate and more prominent labels to digitally altered media that poses a “particularly high risk of materially deceiving the public on a matter of importance”, regardless of whether the content was created using AI or other tools. Meta will begin applying the more prominent “high-risk” labels immediately, a spokesperson said.The approach will shift the company’s treatment of manipulated content, moving from a focus on removing a limited set of posts toward keeping the content up while providing viewers with information about how it was made.Meta previously announced a scheme to detect images made using other companies’ generative AI tools by using invisible markers built into the files, but did not give a start date at the time.A company spokesperson said the labeling approach would apply to content posted on Facebook, Instagram and Threads. Its other services, including WhatsApp and Quest virtual-reality headsets, are covered by different rules.The changes come months before a US presidential election in November that tech researchers warn may be transformed by generative AI technologies. Political campaigns have already begun deploying AI tools in places like Indonesia, pushing the boundaries of guidelines issued by providers like Meta and generative AI market leader OpenAI.In February, Meta’s oversight board called the company’s existing rules on manipulated media “incoherent” after reviewing a video of Joe Biden posted on Facebook last year that altered real footage to wrongfully suggest the US president had behaved inappropriately.The footage was permitted to stay up, as Meta’s existing “manipulated media” policy bars misleadingly altered videos only if they were produced by artificial intelligence or if they make people appear to say words they never actually said.The board said the policy should also apply to non-AI content, which is “not necessarily any less misleading” than content generated by AI, as well as to audio-only content and videos depicting people doing things they never actually said or did. More

The port of Baltimore could be partially open again by the end of the month as the US military and partners push to clear the collapsed bridge that blocked the main shipping channel after being rammed by a cargo vessel, and Joe Biden toured the disaster site on Friday.After getting a firsthand look at efforts to clear away the hulking remains of the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, the US president reiterated his calls for Congress to authorize the federal government to cover the cost of rebuilding the bridge “through union labor and American steel”.Yet he also said his administration was “absolutely committed to ensuring that parties responsible for this tragedy pay to repair the damage and be held accountable to the full extent the law will allow”. And he made it a point to pay tribute to the six construction workers who were killed when the bridge collapsed as they fixed potholes on it.“Most were immigrants but … were Marylanders, hardworking, strong and selfless,” Biden said of the workers, who were from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico. “To all the families and loved ones who are grieving, we have come here to grieve with you.”Cranes, ships and diving crews worked to reopen one of the nation’s crucial shipping lanes as Biden prepared to deliver his remarks.Biden received updates from the US Coast Guard and army corps of engineers and got an aerial view of the wreckage.Eight workers were filling potholes on the bridge when it collapsed in the middle of the night on 26 March. Two were rescued, but the bodies of only two of the six who died have been recovered.Biden planned to meet privately with the families of the victims Friday afternoon.Officials have established a temporary, alternate channel for vessels involved in clearing debris.The army corps of engineers reported that it hopes to open a limited-access channel for barge container ships and some vessels moving cars and farm equipment by the end of this month and to restore normal capacity to Baltimore’s port by 31 May, the White House said.As much as $200m in cargo normally moves through Baltimore’s port per day, and it is the leading hub for importing and exporting vehicles.Of more immediate concern might be covering the costs of cleanup and building a new bridge.The Federal Highway Administration has provided $60m in “quick release” emergency relief funds to get started. Exactly how much the collapse will cost is unclear, though some experts estimate recovery will take at least $400m and 18 months.The White House announced on Friday it is asking Congress to authorize the federal government to cover 100% of the collapsed bridge cleanup and reconstruction costs, rather than seeking funding through a separate, supplemental funding request.The Associated Press contributed reporting More

Joe Biden vowed to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge as quickly as possible, using “union labor and American steel”, in a nod to his administration’s attempts to promote domestic manufacturing.“We’re going to move heaven and earth, to rebuild this bridge as rapidly as humanly possible. We’re gonna do so with union labor and American steel,” he said, speaking on the shore of Baltimore harbor with the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge at his back.He continued:
We will support Maryland and Baltimore every step of the way to help you rebuild and maintain all the business and commerce that’s here now.
The chorus of Democratic senators asking Joe Biden to rethink his support for Israel has grown louder in the wake of the killing of seven aid workers earlier this week. Lawmakers aligned with the president are asking him to cancel planned weapons sales, or cut off military support altogether if Israel does not do a better job of protecting civilians. Congress is currently out, with the Senate and House resuming business in Washington DC next week, but in a sign of how fraught the issue has become, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer made no mention of approving more aid to Israel in a letter sent to lawmakers ahead of their return.Here’s what else happened today:
In a visit to Baltimore, Biden pledged “to move heaven and earth” to rebuild the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge, using “union labor and American steel”.
Democratic senator Chris Murphy warned that Israel’s conduct in Gaza could worsen the threat of terrorism worldwide.
Student debt relief is reportedly getting a second go from Biden, who will next week announce a plan to reduce what borrowers owe that could survive a court challenge.
In response to a bid by a Republican lawmaker to rename the biggest airport in the Washington DC-area for Donald Trump, a group of Democratic congressmen wants to bestow his name on a Florida federal prison.
After today’s earthquake that was felt in New York City, New Jersey and elsewhere in the north-east, rightwing congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene said: “God is sending America strong signs to tell us to repent.”
As he closed his remarks, Joe Biden again called on Congress to allow the federal government to pay for the cost of rebuilding the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore, arguing Washington had picked up the bill following previous disasters.“I fully intend … that the federal government cover the cost of building this entire bridge, all of it,” Biden said. “As we’ve done in other parts of the country in similar circumstances. I stand here, I call on Congress to authorize this effort as soon as possible.”The president also said he would support efforts to get those responsible for the collapse to pay for the cost of repairs:
My administration is committed absolutely committed to ensuring that parties responsible for this tragedy pay to repair the damage, and be held accountable to the fullest extent the law will allow.
It’s unclear whether Congress will take Biden up on his request. In the House, the conservative Republican Freedom Caucus said they will only support it if Biden backs down on a ban on new natural gas export projects:Joe Biden vowed to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge as quickly as possible, using “union labor and American steel”, in a nod to his administration’s attempts to promote domestic manufacturing.“We’re going to move heaven and earth, to rebuild this bridge as rapidly as humanly possible. We’re gonna do so with union labor and American steel,” he said, speaking on the shore of Baltimore harbor with the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge at his back.He continued:
We will support Maryland and Baltimore every step of the way to help you rebuild and maintain all the business and commerce that’s here now.
He then turned to remembering the six construction workers fixing potholes on the Francis Scott Key Bridge who were killed when it collapsed.“Most were immigrants but … were Marylanders, hardworking, strong and selfless. After pulling a night shift fixing potholes, they were on a break when the ship struck. Just seconds before, one of the men named Carlos, who was only 24, left a message for his girlfriend. He had said, ‘we just poured cement. We’re waiting for it to dry,’” Biden said.“To all the families and loved ones who are grieving, we have come here to grieve with you,” Biden said.Joe Biden started his remarks off on a note of solidarity.“Military members and first responders, most importantly to the people of Maryland, I’m here to say your nation has your back and I mean it. Your nation has your back.”Joe Biden is now starting his much-delayed remarks on the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore.He was introduced by Maryland’s Democratic governor Wes Moore, who said: “With the support of President Biden and his team, I know that Marylanders of this generation and the next will look up and once again, they will see the Francis Scott Key Bridge, and they will see it standing tall.”We will let you know what the president says.In Baltimore, Joe Biden has received a briefing from the army corps of engineers and the Maryland department of transportation on their efforts to clear the wreckage of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and reopen the port of Baltimore.Army corp of engineers brigadier general John Lloyd told Biden of the plan to remove the large section of bridge that landed on the cargo ship Dali. The section weighs 5,000 tons and stands 125 feet high. Lloyd said they want to cut the metal away from the ship so it can be moved, and have 51 divers and 12 cranes working on the scene.If Donald Trump is convicted of mishandling confidential documents at the conclusion of his upcoming criminal trial in Florida, he could be obligated to serve any sentence in a federal prison bearing his name.Three Democratic congressmen on Friday introduced a House bill seeking to rename Miami’s federal correctional institute for the former president, a mocking response to Pennsylvania Republican Guy Reschenthaler’s proposal to rebrand Dulles international airport in a similar vein.It’s an “effort to make Trump feel more comfortable in his future home,” according to the left-leaning website Meidas Touch, which reported the move by Florida congressman Jared Moskowitz, Gerry Connolly of Virginia and John Garamendi of California.Moskowitz in particular is no stranger to trolling Republicans, having introduced a motion to impeach Joe Biden during a House oversight committee meeting last month. A frequent critic of Trumpist committee chair Jim Comer of Kentucky, who led the evidence-free effort to impeach the president, Moskowitz prodded in vain to find a Republican to second his motion.The new bill seeks to recognize the Donald J Trump Federal Correctional Institution “in any law, regulation, map, document, paper, or any other record of the United States”.With a Republican majority in the House, it stands as much chance of becoming law as Rechenthaler’s measure does of clearing the Democrat-led Senate and White House.Trump is currently facing 88 federal charges in four criminal cases, including the one in Florida. He was arraigned last June at the federal courthouse in Miami as a near-circus took place outside.As we wait for Joe Biden to make remarks in Baltimore, rightwing congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has once again found a way to draw attention to herself by implying that the earthquake that rattled the north-east today was, uh, God’s will:Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t. As for what we know for sure about the tremor, here’s a link to our coverage:Joe Biden has arrived in Baltimore at the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge, where he’s meeting with first responders.His helicopter flight took him over the wreckage of the span, as well as the Dali, the cargo ship that struck it and remains trapped in the debris:The president is schedule to give a speech “reaffirming his commitment to the people of Baltimore” at 2.30pm. We’ll cover it live on this blog.Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson will not endorse Joe Biden again this year, a blow of sorts for the president in his looming rematch with Donald Trump.Speaking to Fox News, the wrestler turned Hollywood action star said: “Am I happy with the state of America right now? Well, that answer’s no. Do I believe we’re gonna get better? I believe in that, I’m an optimistic guy. And I believe we can do better.”Long the subject of rumours about political ambitions, Johnson reportedly fielded an approach from No Labels, the centrist third-party group that now says it won’t run a candidate this year.In late September 2020, he endorsed Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, saying: “You guys are both experienced to lead, you’ve done great things. Joe you’ve had such an incredible career, and you’ve led with such great compassion, heart, drive, and soul … Kamala, you have been a district attorney, a state attorney, a US senator. You are smart and tough. I have seen you in those hearings.”But in the Fox News interview broadcast on Friday, he said: “The endorsement that I made years ago with Biden was what I thought was the best decision for me at that time. I thought back then, when we talked about, ‘Hey, you know, I’m in this position where I have some influence,’ and it was my job then … to exercise my influence and share … who I’m going to endorse.“Am I going to do that again this year? That answer’s no.“I realise now going into this election, I will not do that. My goal is to bring this country together. I will keep my politics to myself. It is between me and the ballot box. Like a lot of us out there, not trusting of all politicians, I do trust the American people and whoever they vote for that is my president and who I will support 100%.”Johnson has not disavowed entering presidential politics himself. In 2021, he said: “I don’t think our Founding Fathers EVER envisioned a six-four, bald, tattooed, half-Black, half-Samoan, tequila drinking, pick-up truck driving, fanny pack-wearing guy joining their club – but if it ever happens it’d be my honour to serve you, the people.”The latest bramble for Donald Trump in his legal thorny thicket this week is that New York judge Juan Merchan on Friday blocked the former US president’s bid to subpoena Comcast-owned NBCUniversal for material related to the documentary the media company made about Stormy Daniels.The judge is overseeing Trump’s criminal trial, which begins on 15 April in a historic first for a former US president.Reuters adds that the trial stems from a hush-money payment to Daniels, a porn star and adult film producer, over an old affair she claimed she had with Trump and which she was ready to talk to the press about during the 2016 presidential campaign.Trump denies the sexual liaison and also denies the charges against him in the New York case, one of four criminal cases he faces and the first to go to trial, alleging election financing impropriety as part of a hush-money payment and cover up, also involving model Karen McDougal.The documentary, titled Stormy, came out recently and centers Daniels talking about her life, especially since the scandal ultimately erupted into public view. She is expected to testify for the prosecution in Manhattan court.Joe Biden has departed for Baltimore and there are only thin pickings from the “chopper talk” at the White House, unfortunately.The Guardian’s Washington bureau chief David Smith is on pool duty today and dutifully brings us this report that at the south entrance to the White House, the president said he had spoken to the governor of New Jersey, Phil Murphy, about the earthquake in the region. The words “all right” were audible.A reporter asked if POTUS had threatened military aid to Israel. POTUS replied only: “I asked them to do what they’re doing.”Then he boarded the Marine One helicopter and left.Joe Biden is on his way to Baltimore now, where the US military has said it hopes to reopen the port to shipping traffic, at least on a limited basis, by the end of the month.The US president will take an aerial tour of the major arterial road bridge that collapsed when a huge container ship hit one of its main stone piers 10 days ago.Biden will be briefed on response efforts from the team in charge of salvage and logistical operations, including the US Coast Guard and army corps of engineers.Maryland governor Wes Moore, Senators Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen will be with the president, as will congressman Kweisi Mfume and Baltimore’s mayor, Brandon Scott, alongside other city, state and federal officials.After touring the site of the disaster, where six men who were working on the bridge at the time of the collision were killed, Biden will meet the bereaved families.The chorus of Democratic senators asking Joe Biden to rethink his support for Israel has grown louder in the wake of the killing of seven aid workers earlier this week. Lawmakers aligned with the president are asking him to cancel planned weapons sales, or cut off military support altogether if Israel does not do a better job of protecting civilians. Congress is currently out, with the Senate and House resuming business in Washington DC next week, but in a sign of how fraught the issue has become, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer made no mention of approving more aid to Israel in a letter sent to lawmakers ahead of their return.Here’s what else is going on today:
Biden plans to later this afternoon visit the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, where he’ll discuss efforts to get the city’s economically vital port reopened, and meet with families of the six men killed in the disaster.
Democratic senator Chris Murphy warned that Israel’s conduct in Gaza could worsen the threat of terrorism worldwide.
Student debt relief is reportedly getting a second go from Biden, who will next week announce plans to reduce what borrowers owe that could survive a court challenge. More

I learned the hard way to be skeptical about the predictive power of public opinion polls.I remember election night 2016 all too well, as I hit delete on my partially pre-written Washington Post column and instead tried to look into the future of a Trump presidency. It was a future that wasn’t supposed to happen.An entire nation of journalists was doing much the same. Not everyone, but a whole lot of us.Given that searing memory, I reacted to the recent much-trumpeted Wall Street Journal poll about the 2024 presidential race with, well, not exactly a shrug, but not a primal scream either.That was the poll that said Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in six of seven crucial battleground states, the very ones most likely to determine who gets elected in November. The former president is ahead, according to the Journal’s poll, in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina; the two candidates are tied in Wisconsin.That doesn’t mean anything definitive seven months away from the election. Yet – as someone who thinks another four years of Trump would be a disaster – I believe there’s something to be learned here.Rather than dismiss these findings, think about what they tell us, even if they do so imperfectly and even if they lack any real predictive power.One of the things these numbers suggest is that the journalists are not getting the truth across to citizens on some key points (or if they are, that truth is being ignored).The poll respondents claim that one of their big concerns is the economy. If that’s the case, they should be happy with Biden. Among the factors: low inflation, significant growth and low unemployment. Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate economist, wrote recently: “The economic news in 2023 was almost miraculously good.” (Even the cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner, he notes, was down 4.5% last year.)If the economy is that strong and that important to voters – and if Biden can take at least some of the credit – why isn’t it coming across? That’s something for the Biden campaign, primarily; but it’s also something for media people since journalists are supposed to be communicating information so that citizens can vote with knowledge. That should be a higher priority than generating profits, ratings and clicks, but one eventually despairs that it ever will be.Another major voter concern, of course, is Biden’s age. He’s 81; Trump will be 78 in June. They’re both old; both have memory gaps and both exhibit confusion at times.Only one of them, however, talks about some migrants as “animals” or predicts a “bloodbath” for the country if he loses. Only one is facing dozens of charges related to crimes including trying to overturn a legitimate election. Only one has promised to be a dictator on day one of his presidency and only one has allies that are meticulously plotting a radical revamping of how America works.A fine Associated Press story carried the headline, “Trump’s plans if he returns to the White House include deportation raids, tariffs and mass firings.” The story notes that the ideas are extreme and the groundwork determined. “Some of his current ideas would probably end up in court or impeded by Congress,” it said. “But Trump’s campaign and allied groups are assembling policy books with detailed plans.”Poll respondents also claim to be deeply concerned about the state of democracy in America.They should be, of course, but what they mean by that differs widely. Do they know as much about Trump’s authoritarian blueprints as they do about how Biden walks these days with a stiffer gait?I’m not quite as dismissive as the media critic Mark Jacob, who scoffed that there’s “only one poll that matters. It’s seven months from now. The rest is just empty calories filling airtime.”And I do take seriously the analysis by Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo, who looked at the Journal poll and several others, comparing them with earlier ones, and concluding that Biden is making slow, uneven progress.That progress, Marshall thinks, may accelerate as more Americans realize that, like it or not, these two candidates are the actual choices. No Nikki Haley or Gretchen Whitmer is waiting in the wings.Polls can’t predict. But they can warn. And maybe a red-alert warning is what low-information Americans – and our horserace-obsessed media – need most of all.
Margaret Sullivan is a Guardian US columnist writing on media, politics and culture More

The murder of six people at a church school in an affluent, largely white enclave of Tennessee’s largest city one year ago sparked a mass protest movement for gun control by Nashville parents. The Republican-dominated legislature met that movement with some spending on school police officers as a gesture to the outrage, a law shielding gun and ammunition manufacturers from liability as a gesture to Tennessee’s powerful gun lobby and the expulsion of the two Black lawmakers as a gesture of warning to people causing too much trouble.Other antidemocratic displays over the last year would be just as outrageous, if people outside of Tennessee were still paying attention.The temporary expulsion of Representatives Justin Pearson and Justin Jones was only the first cautionary tale in a saga of retribution that has continued apace, activists say. Conservative domination – maintained by gerrymandered districts, disenfranchised voters and an increasing sense of political despair – insulates Tennessee Republicans from political consequences for unpopular decisions. Challenged in public by increasing activism on the left and apocalyptic rhetoric on the right, Tennessee Republicans stopped just chipping away at democratic norms and began hammering full-on like coalminers on Rocky Top.Republicans rode the Tea Party wave of 2010 into a dominant position in Tennessee. Bit by bit over the last 14 years, they have turned Tennessee into a one-party state. About 37% of Tennesseans vote for Democrats in national elections, but Republicans hold a 75-24 supermajority in the Tennessee house and a 27-6 supermajority in the state senate – enough to override a veto and propose constitutional changes. Tennessee fails Princeton’s report card on gerrymandering. Only seven state house seats are considered competitive. No state senate seats are competitive.The last Democrat to win a statewide office in Tennessee was Governor Phil Bredesen, who left office in January 2011. All five state supreme court justices are Republican appointees.Only one of Tennessee’s nine members of Congress is a Democrat: Steve Cohen of Memphis. In 2021, Republican legislators cracked Nashville’s longstanding fifth district – held continuously by a Democrat since 1875 – into three pieces. Jim Cooper, one of the last Blue Dog Democrats, was replaced in 2022 by Andy Ogles, a Freedom Caucus Republican who denies that Joe Biden fairly won the 2020 election and was one of 19 lawmakers to initially break against Kevin McCarthy’s speakership in 2023.Historically, Tennessee Republicans had a tradition of bipartisanship and relative moderation typified by former senators Lamar Alexander or Bob Corker, said Dr Sekou Franklin, a political science professor at Middle Tennessee State University. That’s long gone now.“The leadership in the state is not the old guard,” Franklin said. “They’re an extreme version of conservatives who believe that they have broad sovereignty to govern, in many respects irrespective of what goes on in the national government.”Voter disenfranchisement drives some of this political advantage.About 9.2 % of the adult citizen population (and 21% of Black adults) in Tennessee are barred from voting because of a felony conviction.Tennessee has one of the strictest and most opaque rights restoration processes, said Blair Bowie, director of the Restore Your Vote initiative at the Campaign Legal Center, a Washington DC-based voting-rights advocacy group. In addition to having to pay all court costs and restitution and being current on child support payments, disenfranchised voters must obtain a certificate of restoration from a probation or parole officer, or a court clerk … if they know how to do it. “There’s no application,” Bowie said. “You end up with a system where even if someone meets the criteria, they couldn’t restore their voting rights because the process is broken.”The process became even more difficult last year. Now voting rights can only be restored after clemency granted by the governor’s office or citizenship rights restored by a circuit court judge.Then in January, the Tennessee secretary of state added one new criterion: a judge must also restore a disenfranchised citizen’s right to carry a gun in order to regain the right to vote.As thousands of people began to descend on the capitol after the Nashville shooting last year, conservative lawmakers really didn’t want to endure another round of rowdy protests. The Republican majority didn’t really want to be there at all, Pearson said.“The call, or the orders from the governor about what we could do to address the issues of gun violence, was very narrow,” he said, describing a special session called by Tennessee’s governor, Bill Lee, to address criminal justice issues for mental health, public safety and – potentially – a law to take guns away from someone ruled an extreme risk.So, on day one, Republicans changed the rules.“You couldn’t have a sign in a committee room. You hear me? A piece of paper is banned,” Pearson said. “You know what you can still have in a committee room? A gun.”View image in fullscreenGuns are prohibited in the capitol, but not in the committee buildings where hearings are held, a rule the Republican-led legislature did not change despite the presence of rifle-bearing second amendment activists and far-right Proud Boys confronting gun control supporters on the street.Outside the capitol, thousands of people, including traditionally Republican voters, attended rallies, said Maryam Abolfazli, a 45-year-old international development executive who founded the civic engagement non-profit Rise and Shine Tennessee after the shootings. Parents were aghast at a legal environment that made it impossible to disarm people with mental illness before they hurt someone.“Moms came to me to tell me that they’ve never attended anything like this in their life,” she said. “This issue and this moment mobilized people in a way that they had never been mobilized.”Polling by Vanderbilt University supports Abolfazli’s observations. Three-quarters of poll respondents – including majorities of “Maga” Republicans and NRA members – expressed support for laws requiring the safe storage of guns in vehicles.At a hearing in August, Tennessee highway patrol officers began dragging out women holding up signs that said “1 KID > ALL THE GUNS” at the order of the civil justice subcommittee chair, Lowell Russell. Abolfazli was one of them.The ACLU sued on first amendment grounds to block the rules on signs after the event. The parties dismissed the suit as moot after the end of the special session.The special session ended with laws to speed up background checks and to provide free gun locks. Lawmakers also appropriated $100m in one-time spending for community mental health agencies and other mental health services, and to provide more school resource officers. But “red flag” laws and other gun safety measures were off the table, despite polling, protests and prudence.The session ended cattywampus, with Pearson and the House speaker, Cameron Sexton, shoving into one another on the floor, a sign in Pearson’s hand: “Protect Kids Not Guns.”The jostling itself was a sign of things to come.Rafiah Muhammad–McCormick’s son, Rodney Armstrong, was shot and killed in 2020 in his backyard in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, during a pool party. The murder turned her into a political activist. She wanted to talk with a Republican lawmaker in the halls of the Tennessee legislature last year, she said. It did not go well.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“I introduced myself as the mother of a gun violence victim. His immediate response was, ‘Well let me stop you right there: the gun did not kill your son.’ I wasn’t even talking on a gun deal. He stopped me immediately to correct me, as a mother who lost her child.”“I felt like I was punched in the face,” she added. “You’re so adamant about being right that they ignore what you’re saying.”Getting in front of legislators isn’t hard, she said. Getting them to listen is difficult.View image in fullscreenRepublicans abandoned the new sign rules at the start of the legislative session in January. Instead, they restricted visitors without tickets from sitting on the side of the house gallery where they can observe Democrats, Pearson said.Republicans also changed the rules for debate in the house. On paper, it allows for equal time for Republicans and Democrats, but in practice it allow the house speaker to ignore requests to be recognized and for Republicans to end debate as they see fit.“The speaker does not have to recognize the person whose hand’s raised first,” Pearson said. “He gets to choose whoever he wants. He can choose a Republican who’s going to end the day by calling the question.”Lawmakers took steps to block courts from reviewing their chamber rules. In February, the house passed a bill to remove jurisdiction from circuit, chancery and other lower state courts over cases involving house and senate rules . If enacted, it would require challenges to rules like the ban on signs to go to the Tennessee supreme court or a federal judge. The bill has, so far, failed to get out of a senate committee.The Tennessee house also passed a measure in February to make the expulsion of legislators permanent, despite concerns raised by the house legislative attorney that the bill was not constitutional.Pearson was stopped mid-comment from arguing against the bill. Jones was not permitted to speak about it at all.In a conversation leaked to the Tennessee Holler of a Tennessee Republican house caucus meeting recorded after the vote to expel the Tennessee Three last year, Republicans framed their opposition in apocalyptic terms.View image in fullscreen“Everyone should recognize that the Democrats are not our friends,” said Representative Jason Zachary. “They destroy the republic and the foundation of who we are, or we preserve it. That is the reality of where we are right now, and if these last three days have not proven that, you need to find a new job.”Other Republicans shared similar sentiments.“I think the problem I have is if we don’t stick together, if you don’t believe we’re at war for our republic, with all love and respect to you, you need a different job,” said Representative Scott Cepicky in the leaked video. “The left wants Tennessee so bad, because if they get us, the south-east falls, and it’s game over for the republic.”Those same Republicans are targeting perceived centers of progressive power in the interest of advancing conservative orthodoxy, even when that runs against public sentiment.Since the Covenant school shooting, Tennessee Republicans have passed laws to fund pro-life “crisis pregnancy centers”, to ban gender-affirming care for minors, to define male and female in state law in a way that makes it impossible to change gender on driver’s licenses or birth certificates, and to bar lawsuits against teachers who do not use a transgender student’s preferred pronouns. Federal courts have blocked new laws restricting drag shows.Republicans are increasingly targeting municipal government. In the wake of the fatal police beating of Tyre Nichols in 2023, Memphis and other communities created police oversight boards with the power to investigate and punish misconduct. Last week, Lee signed legislation blocking those boards and any local ordinance that limits the ability of a law enforcement agency to take all necessary steps “to prevent and detect crime and apprehend criminal offenders”.Nashville’s 40-member metro council declined to host the 2024 Republican national convention after Republican lawmakers shattered its congressional district. Republicans responded with legislation to cut the council’s numbers in half, to take over its airport authority and to replace nearly half of the local sports authority with state-appointed members. All these moves have been blocked in court.Tennessee activists have increasingly focused on local politics, observers say.“We are seeing folks show up at the school board meetings,” Abolfazli said. Democratic voters will also cross party lines in races they can’t win to keep extremists out of office, she said. “We will pick the more moderate Republican to prevent book banning.”But at the state level, the net effect of conservative power plays has been to inculcate a sense of despair on the left. This diminishes political activism and voter participation, she said.“You have so many folks who, whatever they’re being fed about it, think their vote doesn’t count,” Abolfazli said. “Nothing changes. The picture is bleak. You have imprisoned our democracy, and we can’t get the shackles off, because of the gerrymandering, the lobbying and the extremist politics.” More

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