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      Overnight, Midterms Get a White-Hot New Focus: Abortion

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      Exultant Republicans planned new bans. Democrats, who have struggled to rally around abortion rights, hoped a bruising Supreme Court loss could jolt their voters into action.A leaked draft of a Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade instantly propelled the debate over abortion into the white-hot center of American politics, emboldening Republicans across the country and leaving Democrats scrambling to jolt their voters into action six months before the midterm elections.Although the Supreme Court on Tuesday stressed that the draft opinion was not final, the prospect that the nation’s highest court was on the cusp of invalidating the constitutional right to abortion was a crowning moment for Republicans who are already enjoying momentum in the fight for control of Congress, statehouses and governor’s offices. Republican state leaders on Tuesday announced plans to further tighten restrictions on the procedure — or outlaw it outright — once the final ruling lands in the coming months.Democrats, reeling from the blow and divided over whom to blame, hoped the news would serve as a painful reality check for voters who have often taken abortion rights for granted and struggled to mobilize on the issue with the passion of abortion rights opponents. They said they planned to drive home the stakes in the fall, particularly in state races, putting abortion rights on the November ballot in key contests in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and other battlegrounds.“People were concerned about the lack of energy for voters in the midterms and not coming out to vote — well, the Supreme Court has just handed us a reason for people to vote,” said Representative Susan Wild, a Pennsylvania Democrat who faces a competitive re-election.“At one time I would have said they’re never going to take away right to contraception. But I don’t believe that anymore,” she said.Independent voters have overwhelmingly soured on President Biden, and many core Democratic constituencies have shown signs of trouble. Some party strategists privately cautioned against the idea that even something as seismic as overturning Roe would surpass the importance of the economy and inflation with many voters, something Republicans argued publicly.“Conventional wisdom right now is this helps Democrats because it will spur turnout, but it also could certainly spur turnout for base Republicans,” said Glen Bolger, a Republican strategist. “Generally most voters focus on the economy, for instance, and right now of course, inflation is dominant.”A woman writing a message supporting abortion rights before a protest on Tuesday in Manhattan.Caitlin Ochs for The New York TimesAn anti-abortion protester on Tuesday outside the Jackson Women’s Health Organization in Jackson, Miss.Rory Doyle for The New York TimesBut polling also shows that Americans strongly oppose completely overturning Roe v. Wade — 54 percent of Americans think the Roe decision should be upheld while 28 percent believe it should be overturned, a new Washington Post-ABC poll found. Democrats argue that many voters have long believed it was not truly in danger of being gutted. The draft opinion may change their calculus in meaningful ways, especially with suburban women and disillusioned base voters, those strategists say.“It hasn’t ever been that voters don’t care about it,” said Molly Murphy, a Democratic pollster and strategist, and the president of Impact Research. “It’s been concluded that it’s less effective because voters don’t believe that it could actually go away. And so with what the Supreme Court is signaling they’re about to do, is completely change and eliminate that sort of theory of the mobilizing power of abortion.”Understand the Challenge to Roe v. WadeThe Supreme Court’s upcoming decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization could be the most consequential to women’s access to abortion since 1973.The Arguments: After hearing arguments in December, the court appeared poised to uphold the Mississippi law at the center of the case that could overturn Roe v. Wade.Under Scrutiny: In overturning Roe v. Wade, would the justices be following their oath to uphold the Constitution or be engaging in political activism? Here is what legal scholars think.An America Without Roe: The changes created by the end of abortion rights at the federal level would mostly be felt by poor women in Republican states.An Extraordinary Breach: The leak of the draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade suggests an internal disarray at odds with the decorum prized by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr.Familiar Arguments: The draft opinion, by Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., draws on two decades-old conservative critiques of the Roe v. Wade decision.Legislative Activity: Some Republican-led state legislatures have already moved to advance abortion restrictions ahead of the court’s decision. Here is a look at those efforts.Without the court’s protection for abortion rights, states would be free to enforce their own restrictions or protections. That patchwork system is likely to shift the focus to governor’s races, where a state’s executive could have an outsize role in determining whether abortion is legal.Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s attorney general and a candidate for governor, said he would veto any legislation restricting access to abortions.Matt Rourke/Associated PressIn Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, the state attorney general and Democratic candidate for governor, signaled that he planned to seize on the looming threat to Roe to cast himself as a one-man firewall against abortion rights opponents in his state. On Tuesday, he pledged to veto any legislation from the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania legislature that would restrict abortion access.“Every Pennsylvanian should be able to raise a family on their own terms,” Mr. Shapiro said. “And that means deciding if and when and how they want to do that.”But for all the talk from Democrats about abortion being on the ballot this fall, Mr. Shapiro’s race is the exception. Far more states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Texas and Wisconsin, all have laws on the books effectively banning abortion that would go into effect once Roe is invalidated. The November elections are unlikely to give Democrats the numbers to reverse those.In Wisconsin, for example, an 1849 law made performing an abortion a felony unless the pregnancy endangered the life of the mother. That law remains on the books, though several of the state’s Republican candidates for governor have endorsed proposals to eliminate any exceptions to the ban.On Tuesday afternoon, Gov. Tony Evers of Wisconsin sent a letter, signed by 15 fellow Democratic governors, urging Congress to enact federal abortion protections — a plea that is almost certain to go unmet.Although Mr. Evers won’t be able to make the case that he can save abortion protections in Wisconsin, he will argue that he can make other key decisions about how much the machinery of the state is used toward investigations and prosecutions of abortions, said Ben Wikler, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia played up a 2019 law that bans abortions in the state after six weeks.Alyssa Pointer/ReutersRepublicans were celebrating as they appeared on the cusp of victory. In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican facing stiff primary and general election challenges, took a victory lap Tuesday, playing up a 2019 state law that bans abortion in the state after six weeks. The law has been held up in a federal appeals court awaiting the outcome of the Supreme Court’s decision.“We are the voice of all those people that are out there and have been in the trenches for decades doing this and we’re glad to be in the fight with them,” Mr. Kemp said during a radio interview Tuesday.In South Dakota, Gov. Kristi Noem, a Republican believed to have presidential ambitions, said Tuesday that she would immediately call for a special session to outlaw abortion in her state. Attorney General Eric Schmitt of Missouri said a broad ban on abortions in the state was just a signature away from enactment if Roe is in fact overturned. The speaker of the Nebraska Legislature told colleagues to expect a special session on abortion following the Supreme Court’s decision.Democrats running for Senate renewed calls to put Roe’s abortion protections into federal law and change the Senate rules, if necessary, to do it. Although Democrats currently control the Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote, they do not appear to have the votes to codify a woman’s right to an abortion, a major point of contention and blame-shifting among Democrats.Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia said Tuesday that he was still opposed to any changes to the filibuster, effectively ending any Democratic hopes of passing an abortion bill.Still, Democratic candidates signaled they planned to continue to promise to fight to codify Roe.“Democrats have to act quickly and get rid of the filibuster,” said Lt. Gov. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, who is running for Senate, to “finally codify Roe into law. We cannot afford to wait.”Kina Collins, a Democrat in a primary for a House seat in Chicago, called on the party’s leaders to “fight like our lives depend on it.”“There is no place in this party for Democrats who will not,” she said.Sensing the potential harm of yet another intraparty skirmish, Representative Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, the chairman of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, warned against blaming fellow Democrats.“Focusing on what’s wrong with Democrats in the Senate or elsewhere is (another) circular firing squad,” Mr. Maloney wrote on Twitter. “We can only end the filibuster, pass real protections for choice IF WE WIN more power.”Trip Gabriel contributed reporting. More

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      Roe’s Fall Would Alter Political Battle Lines. But in What Way?

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      Democrats who were privately hoping for a surprise development to shake up the midterms have gotten their wish. Nobody expected it to come in the form of a leaked draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, however.It’s a political bombshell. But that doesn’t mean it’s easy to discern where the shrapnel lands.Democrats we spoke with on Tuesday were furious about Justice Samuel Alito’s draft opinion, which was presented in the document as the view of the court’s conservative majority. Universally, these Democrats viewed it as an assault on the fundamental rights of women to control their own bodies.But in coldly rational political terms, they expect the news to energize their base and motivate key swing groups, such as suburban college-educated women. They also pointed to polling showing that banning abortion, as a number of states have indicated they would do if Roe were overturned, would be unpopular with the broader public.“The more you see Republicans cheering the decision, the more you’re going to have voters saying, ‘Wait a second, this is not what I thought they were going to do,’” said Margie Omero, a Democratic pollster.“We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled,” Alito wrote in the draft, which a representative for the court emphasized in a statement was not necessarily a final opinion. “It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.”Understand the Challenge to Roe v. WadeThe Supreme Court’s upcoming decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization could be the most consequential to women’s access to abortion since 1973.The Arguments: After hearing arguments in December, the court appeared poised to uphold the Mississippi law at the center of the case that could overturn Roe v. Wade.Under Scrutiny: In overturning Roe v. Wade, would the justices be following their oath to uphold the Constitution or be engaging in political activism? Here is what legal scholars think.An America Without Roe: The changes created by the end of abortion rights at the federal level would mostly be felt by poor women in Republican states.An Extraordinary Breach: The leak of the draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade suggests an internal disarray at odds with the decorum prized by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr.Familiar Arguments: The draft opinion, by Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., draws on two decades-old conservative critiques of the Roe v. Wade decision.Legislative Activity: Some Republican-led state legislatures have already moved to advance abortion restrictions ahead of the court’s decision. Here is a look at those efforts.Omero pointed to an April 26 polling memo by Navigator, a Democratic messaging group she is involved with, arguing that a Supreme Court ruling along these lines “would motivate Democrats and pro-choice Americans significantly more to turn out in 2022 than Republicans and those who are pro-life.”Now that Roe’s elimination is no longer hypothetical, Omero said, she expects voters will begin paying more attention to the issue. “We’re going to have a decision that is going to lay bare the differences between the parties,” she said.What Republicans are sayingSo far, top Republicans would rather talk about the leak itself than the potential decision’s political implications.Senator Mitch McConnell, the minority leader, called the disclosure “an attack on the independence of the Supreme Court.” It was “a judicial insurrection,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. “An act of institutional sabotage,” said Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska.“They’re always unsure how to talk about abortion,” said Rachel Bovard, a senior director of policy at the Conservative Partnership Institute, a right-leaning think tank. Bovard said she had spent the past day discussing the implications of the leak with nervous Republican lawmakers and aides.Privately, Republicans are still trying to gauge how the issue will affect the midterms. On Tuesday, the National Republican Senatorial Committee sent a memo urging candidates to “be the compassionate consensus-builder” on abortion, while also highlighting what Republicans say are extreme views among Democrats.Indicating some concern about how Democrats and activists on the left might try to portray Alito’s draft opinion, the memo also recommended that G.O.P. candidates “forcefully refute” statements by Democrats that Republicans want to ban contraception and “throw doctors and women in jail.”Several G.O.P. operatives said that the issue could ultimately play to Republicans’ advantage if the debate becomes about whether to enact restrictions on the timing of abortions rather than about whether there ought to be a federal right in the first place.“Running on overturning Roe is not a winning issue” in a general election, said Garrett Ventry, a Republican political consultant. “Late-term abortion is.”Other Republicans expressed skepticism that abortion, rather than inflation or crime, would move many voters in November.“The battle lines on this issue have been drawn for a long time,” said Sean Spicer, a former press secretary for the Trump White House and Republican National Committee strategist.But the decision is likely to affect how candidates, donors and activists approach the political fights ahead of them, funneling millions of dollars into Senate and state-level races that could determine the shape of the post-Roe world.“If you’re running for Senate, you are tied to the national ideological debate,” said Kristin Davison, a Republican consultant involved in midterm races across the country. Running for governor is more complicated, she added, because “now you have to do something about it.”For social conservatives who have waited decades to overturn Roe, the fight is just beginning.“There’s no doubt the battle goes to the state level,” said Bob Vander Plaats, a Christian conservative leader in Iowa, who added that the next focus for the anti-abortion movement would be pushing across the country for laws on fetal cardiac activity. “It’s not a political issue. It’s a right or wrong issue.”What to readWhat would the end of Roe v. Wade look like? Here is our map showing where various states stand on abortion, and here are key questions and answers.The leak of the draft decision on Roe was an extraordinary breach and left the Supreme Court seriously shaken. Our reporter Adam Liptak explores the possible motives, methods and whether defections are still possible.Outside the Supreme Court on Tuesday, scores of supporters and opponents of abortion rights gathered with megaphones and signs. Here’s what they had to say.— Blake & LeahIs there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

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      Biden ‘not prepared’ to support ending Senate filibuster to pass abortion rights law – live

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      US politics liveRoe v WadeBiden ‘not prepared’ to support ending Senate filibuster to pass abortion rights law – live
      Full story: US shaken to its core by supreme court draft
      Chief justice orders inquiry into leak of draft ruling
      ’It will be chaos’: 26 states will ban abortion if ruling stands
      Abortion to become key fight in US midterm elections
      LIVE Updated 25m agoKari Paul (now), Richard Luscombe and Alexandra Topping (earlier)Tue 3 May 2022 17.28 EDTFirst published on Tue 3 May 2022 06.14 EDT0Show key events onlyLive feedShow key events onlyFrom More

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      'A radical decision': Biden condemns leaked US supreme court opinion on Roe v Wade – video

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      President Joe Biden on Tuesday blasted the ‘radical’ draft opinion suggesting the supreme court may be be poised to overturn the landmark 1973 Roe v Wade case that legalised abortion nationwide, saying it would threaten ‘a whole range of rights’ if it holds. Speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One, Biden said he hoped the draft would not be finalised by justices, contending it reflects a ‘fundamental shift in American jurisprudence’ that threatens other rights such as privacy and marriage

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      The Guardian view on overturning Roe v Wade: a human rights catastrophe | Editorial

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      The Guardian view on overturning Roe v Wade: a human rights catastropheEditorialAccess to safe abortion is vanishing fast. The US supreme court appears poised to deal it the worst blow yet If the supreme court overturns Roe v Wade, as a leaked draft opinion indicates, it will be a crushing blow to the fundamental right of women in the United States to control their own bodies. It is the grim culmination of a crusade by zealots, against the will of the majority, to risk the health, happiness and lives of women. An accelerating erosion of rights and services has already slashed access to abortions, and many feared that Donald Trump’s judicial legacy would be the curtailment or reversal of the 1973 ruling, which effectively legalised abortion nationally. But this text, obtained by Politico and written by Justice Samuel Alito, looks worse than expected. Excoriating Roe v Wade as “egregiously wrong from the start”, it abandons the issue to states – nearly half of which have, or will soon have, laws banning abortion.Such a decision will force women to give birth in a country with high maternal mortality rates and no national paid maternity leave; it will risk lives as they access illegal abortions; it will threaten to criminalise vulnerable women and those who help them (and even those who have miscarriages); it will push yet more children into poverty. Experts warn that states are likely to pass further restrictions targeting those who travel to obtain abortions, or order medication to manage their abortions at home. These days there are new ways for women to obtain abortions, but also new ways to track them, and those supporting them. Overturning the five-decades-old decision could also help to pave the way for a nationwide abortion ban.Moreover, it throws into doubt other established rights, such as gay marriage, which are similarly rooted in the right to privacy. Though it states that it does not do so – arguing that abortion is a unique issue because it involves the right to life or potential life – that is little reassurance. After all, two of the justices backing this decision were confirmed after describing Roe v Wade as “settled law”.This catastrophic decision, assuming it proceeds, both highlights and solidifies the gulf between different Americas. First, the geographical division between states that ban abortion – home to the majority of women – and those that do not. Second, the socioeconomic and racial divide between those whose wealth and connections will allow them to access abortion, and the rest. Finally, it captures the gulf between American public opinion and the institutions that have been captured by the right because the electoral college, the Senate and supreme court are all skewed in favour of Republicans. A poll in January found that only 30% of voters wanted to see Roe v Wade overturned; 69% were opposed.The move is also strikingly out of step with the rest of the world. With a few exceptions – notably Poland – the trend has been overwhelmingly towards the liberalisation of abortion laws, including in countries such as Chile and Ireland. The UN special rapporteur on the right to health, Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng, has warned that overturning abortion rights would set a dangerous precedent, as well as violate international human rights treaties, including the convention against torture.But this decision, of course, can only be fixed at home. Democrats demand the codification of Roe v Wade, knowing that it would require overturning the filibuster, a Senate procedural rule. Calls for supreme court reform will gain ground, with the introduction of term limits a more straightforward move than expanding the court. Beyond the immediate crisis is the greater challenge of fixing a political system now tilted decisively towards Republicans through the systematic pursuit of power, from gerrymandering to voter suppression to control of elections themselves. The right’s victory is the fruit of an orchestrated campaign over decades; the fightback will demand equal ferocity and commitment. This blow could yet help to create some of the momentum required. November’s midterms will be the first test.TopicsRoe v WadeOpinionAbortionUS supreme courtHealthUS politicsWomeneditorialsReuse this content More

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      ‘It will be chaos’: 26 states in US will ban abortion if supreme court ruling stands

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      ‘It will be chaos’: 26 states in US will ban abortion if supreme court ruling standsRegulation would be returned to states where lawmakers in south and midwest have enacted bans in anticipation of court’s decision More than half of US states will outlaw abortion immediately or as soon as practicable, if a leaked draft decision from five supreme court justices remains substantially unchanged.US states could ban people from traveling for abortions, experts warnRead moreThe result would send hundreds of thousands of people in 26 states hostile to abortion elsewhere to terminate a pregnancy – either by traveling hundreds of miles to an abortion clinic or seeking to self-manage abortion through medication from grassroots or illicit groups.Many would also be forced to carry unwanted pregnancies to term.“Abortion is an essential part of reproductive healthcare, and this is going to affect people, even people who think, ‘I will never have an abortion,’” said Dr Nisha Verma, a Darney-Landy fellow with the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists.On Monday, a draft supreme court decision in arguably the most contentious case in generations was leaked. The case considered whether Mississippi could ban abortion at 15 weeks gestation.The ban is highly significant because it strikes at the heart of US constitutional protections for abortion. The landmark 1973 decision Roe v Wade established the right for pregnant people to terminate a pregnancy up to the point a fetus can survive outside the womb, roughly considered 24 weeks gestation, and a legal principle called “viability”.Two maps, one showing the distance under current law of each US county to the nearest abortion provider. The second map shows the increased distances if Roe is overruled and clinics close.The decision invalidated dozens of state bans, and until the court issues a final decision, prevents states from outlawing abortion before viability. A final decision is expected from the court in late June.The leaked decision in the Mississippi case, called Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization, shows five conservative justices are willing to reverse constitutional protections for abortion on the grounds Roe v Wade was wrongly decided.If the decision is not substantially changed by the time a final opinion is issued, abortion regulation would be returned to the states where lawmakers across the south and midwest of the US have enacted bans in anticipation of the court’s decision.“There’s six months to two years before the dust settles,” said Elizabeth Nash, interim associate director of state issues in the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive rights research organization. “It will be chaos.”In that time, “there will be a lot of fluctuation as states are trying to implement their bans”, some of which are designed to go into effect immediately after a court decision is issued.Such state bans would probably close abortion clinics for nearly half of US women of reproductive age (41%) and increase the average driving distance to an abortion provider from 35 miles to 279, according to predictions from Professor Caitlin Knowles Mayers, an economist at Middlebury College in Vermont who has studied how the reversal of Roe would affect accessibility of abortion. This would probably reduce the rate of abortions by 20% in states that ban the procedure and increase births by 4% (birth estimates are less certain).“As was the case in the pre-Roe era, many women seeking abortions will find a way to get to the states where abortion is legal,” said Myers. “Current empirical evidence suggests that about three-quarters of women in the states that go dark will manage to make such a trip, reaching providers in soon-to-be “border” states like Florida, Illinois, New Mexico and Virginia.” Myer also works as a consultant to the Center for Reproductive Rights and Planned Parenthood Federation of America, one of the nation’s largest networks of abortion providers.Roughly 860,000 induced abortions are performed each year in the US. However, a disproportionate share of the people who seek abortions are low-income or people of color who already have children, making it more difficult to obtain an abortion.“Current evidence on the causal effects of travel distances indicates that about one-quarter of women seeking abortions will not be able to travel to obtain them and that most of these women end up giving birth as a result,” said Myers. More

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      US shaken to its core by supreme court draft that would overturn Roe v Wade

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      US shaken to its core by supreme court draft that would overturn Roe v Wade Biden condemns abortion opinion that, if handed down, would mean ‘fundamental shift’ in law and imperil many other rights
      US politics – live coverageJoe Biden has warned that a leaked draft supreme court ruling overturning Roe v Wade, the 1973 case which guaranteed the right to abortion, would represent a huge change in America law and could imperil a wide range of other civil rights.As the US supreme court moves to end abortion, is America still a free country? | Moira DoneganRead moreIn a historic moment that shook the US to the core and highlighted jagged social and political divisions, the court confirmed the draft was authentic but said it did not “represent a decision by the court or the final position of any member on the issues in the case”.Biden said the ruling, if handed down, would represent a “fundamental shift in American jurisprudence” and could imperil rights including same-sex marriage and access to contraception.Politico published the draft by justice Samuel Alito on Monday night. The website said the draft was supported by four other rightwingers on a panel conservatives control 6-3.On Tuesday the chief justice, John Roberts, called its leak a “betrayal of the confidences of the court” which could “undermine the integrity of our operations” and promised an investigation.Speaking to reporters, Biden said the draft ruling had ramifications for “all the decisions you make in your private life, who you marry, whether or not you decide to conceive a child, whether or not you can have an abortion and a range of other decisions [including] how you raise your child”.02:52The draft ruling would allow states to declare abortion illegal.Biden asked: “Does this mean that in Florida they can decide to pass a law saying that same-sex marriage is not permissible, [that] it’s against the law in Florida? It’s a fundamental shift in American jurisprudence.”Protesters gathered outside the court and planned demonstrations around the country – both in support of and against abortion rights.At the court, some chanted “Abortion is healthcare” and carried signs reading “Justices get out of my vagina”, “Legal abortion once and for all” and “We won’t go back”. A smaller group chanted “Hey, hey, ho, ho, Roe v Wade has got to go”. Amid tense exchanges, barriers were erected.In a statement, Biden outlined how Democrats might fight back.First, the president said, his administration would argue Roe was based on precedent and “‘the 14th amendment’s concept of personal liberty’… against government interference with intensely personal decisions”.“I believe that a woman’s right to choose is fundamental,” Biden said. “Roe has been the law of the land for almost 50 years, and basic fairness and the stability of our law demand that it not be overturned.”Biden said he had directed advisers to prepare responses “to the continued attack on abortion and reproductive rights, under a variety of possible outcomes”.“We will be ready when any ruling is issued,” he said.Politico said it received a copy of the draft, which also dealt with Planned Parenthood v Casey, a 1992 case, from a person familiar with proceedings in Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a Mississippi case due to be decided this summer.The draft ran to 98 pages including a 31-page appendix of state abortion laws and included 118 footnotes.0Alito wrote: “Roe was egregiously wrong from the start. Its reasoning was exceptionally weak, and the decision has had damaging consequences. And far from bringing about a national settlement of the abortion issue, Roe and Casey have enflamed debate and deepened division.”He added: “We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled. It is time to heed the constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.”As many as 26 states are expected to enact partial or total abortion bans if Roe falls. Some Republican-run states are expected to attempt to make traveling for an abortion illegal. Democratic-run states have indicated moves to protect and help women who seek an abortion.Polling shows clear majority support for abortion access. Christian and conservative groups campaign to end it regardless.If the court overturns Roe, Biden said, “it will fall on our nation’s elected officials at all levels of government to protect a woman’s right to choose. And it will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this November.”Biden promised to sign legislation codifying Roe into law. On Tuesday, the Democratic Senate leader, Chuck Schumer, said: “This is as urgent and real as it gets. We will vote to protect a woman’s right to choose and every American is going to see which side every senator stands.”But legislative success would require reform to the filibuster, a Senate rule which requires 60 votes for most legislation. Moderate Democrats have blocked such moves on issues including voting rights. Biden himself has expressed opposition.Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond in Virginia, told the Guardian: “This might not be the final ruling. The justices usually confer after arguments and suggest how they would resolve a case and then the senior justices in the majority and minority work on drafts and circulate them to all members of the court.”He said: “In some cases, especially high-profile and controversial ones … justices do change their positions, as Chief Justice Roberts allegedly did” in a 2012 case in which the Affordable Care Act, popularly known as Obamacare, was upheld.Laurence Tribe, a Harvard law professor, pointed to possible wider implications.“If the Alito opinion savaging Roe and Casey ends up being the opinion of the court,” Tribe wrote, “it will unravel many basic rights beyond abortion and will go further than returning the issue to the states: it will enable a [Republican] Congress to enact a nationwide ban on abortion and contraception.”Other rights that may be at risk if Roe falls include the right to same-sex marriage, determined in Obergefell v Hodges in 2015.Charles Kaiser, a historian of gay life in the US and a Guardian contributor, said Alito’s opinion “blithely disregards past precedents”.“One passage in particular sets off alarm bells for activists who think its reasoning could jeopardize the court’s decisions legalising sodomy and the right of members of the same sex to marry.”In a sharply divided Washington, the supreme court is subject to fierce partisan warfare – particularly since Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, ripped up precedent to deny Barack Obama a third pick in 2016.Republicans confirmed three justices under Donald Trump, including Amy Coney Barrett, a hardline Catholic conservative, just weeks before the 2020 election – a move which ignored McConnell’s own posturing four years before.Biden has overseen the confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black female justice, but she has not yet replaced the retiring Stephen Breyer, another liberal, in a move that will not change the ideological imbalance.In the aftermath of the Politico story, Democrats pointed to the wider threat posed by the court.Adam Schiff, a California congressman and chair of the House intelligence committee, told the Guardian: “In abandoning decades of precedent, the draft opinion exposes the supreme court as no longer conservative, but now merely a partisan institution bent on imposing its anti-choice views on the rest of the country.“This decision, if made final, will be devastating for the healthcare of millions of women, even as it is destroys any semblance of devotion by the court to the law.”Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the New York progressive, said: “[The court] isn’t just coming for abortion – they’re coming for the right to privacy Roe rests on, which includes gay marriage and civil rights.”Abortion to become key fight in US midterms after stunning court leakRead moreRepublicans welcomed the draft ruling and condemned the leak – which the top legal reporter Nina Totenberg called a “bomb at the court”.Josh Hawley, a hardline Missouri senator, called Alito’s draft “tightly argued, and morally powerful” and said of the leak: “The justices mustn’t give in to this attempt to corrupt the process. Stay strong.”Among Republican moderates, Susan Collins of Maine – who under Trump supported the appointments of Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh but voted against Barrett – pointed to a possible betrayal.“If this leaked draft opinion is the final decision,” she said, “it would be completely inconsistent with what Justice Gorsuch and Justice Kavanaugh said in their hearings and in our meetings in my office.”Among women’s rights campaigners, condemnation of the Alito draft was strong.Laphonza Butler, president of the advocacy group Emily’s List, said: “It’s past time to vote out every official who stands against the pro-choice majority.”TopicsUS newsAbortionUS supreme courtLaw (US)GenderUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      Abortion to become key fight in US midterms after stunning court leak

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      Abortion to become key fight in US midterms after stunning court leakDemocrats condemn supreme court’s draft opinion and urge voters to support them in November to protect reproductive rights The stunning revelation that the US supreme court has privately voted to overturn Roe v Wade immediately thrust one of the most polarizing issues in American life to the forefront of the national political debate, and now abortion rights promises to reshape the dynamics of the coming midterm elections.Biden responds to supreme court abortion leak: ‘Government must protect women’s right to choose’ – liveRead moreThe draft opinion, written by Justice Samuel Alito and obtained by Politico in a highly unusual and possibly unprecedented leak from the nation’s highest court, would strike down Roe, the landmark supreme court decision that has guaranteed access to abortion for nearly half a century, and a subsequent 1992 decision – Planned Parenthood v Casey – that largely upheld that right.“Roe was egregiously wrong from the start,” Alito wrote in the draft opinion labeled “first draft”, which was not expected to be finalized for at least several more weeks and could change in its final form. The question of whether abortion should be legal, Alito argues, is best answered by individual states.In a statement on Tuesday, the supreme court confirmed the authenticity of the draft report but cautioned that it “does not represent a decision by the court or the final position of any member on the issues in the case”.Nevertheless, as the revelation reverberated across Washington, protesters gathered in front of the supreme court on Tuesday morning, shouting loudly enough to be heard by the members of Congress arriving for work at the Capitol. From the White House, Joe Biden urged voters to elect political leaders who would act to protect abortion access and reproductive rights, irrespective of the supreme court’s final decision.“If the court does overturn Roe, it will fall on our nation’s elected officials at all levels of government to protect a woman’s right to choose,” Biden said in a statement. “And it will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this November. At the federal level, we will need more pro-choice senators and a pro-choice majority in the House to adopt legislation that codifies Roe, which I will work to pass and sign into law.”Strategists were preparing for a decision that either weakened or reversed Roe, but the leak upended the expected timetable and, potentially, the legislative agenda.The Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said he would bring legislation to the floor that would codify abortion access in federal law. But the measure is unlikely to garner the 60 votes needed to pass the Senate. A similar measure passed by the Democratic-controlled House last year does not even have the support of all 50 Democratic senators.“A vote on this legislation is not an abstract exercise. This is as urgent and real as it gets,” Schumer said on the Senate floor on Tuesday. “We will vote to protect a woman’s right to choose and every American is going to see which side every senator stands.”In anticipation of such a ruling by the supreme court, Republican-led states have proposed, and in many cases already passed, a cascade of restrictive anti-abortion laws. Conservative activists are pushing a nationwide ban on abortion if Republicans recapture control of Congress in November, as they are favored to do.In a flurry of statements and fundraising emails, Democrats argued that the erosion of reproductive rights was a reason to support them in the November midterms.“Republicans just gutted Roe v Wade, the Constitution’s guarantee of reproductive freedom, and will ban abortion in all 50 states, if they take over Congress,” the New York congressman Sean Patrick Maloney, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, wrote on Twitter. “Only Democrats will protect our freedoms. That is now the central choice in the 2022 election.”Democratic lawmakers and candidates condemned the expected decision, and vowed to protect access to abortion.“As a pro-choice pastor, I’ve always believed that a patient’s room is way too small for a woman, her doctor, and the United States government,” wrote the Georgia senator Raphael Warnock, one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for re-election this cycle. “I’ll always fight to protect a woman’s right to choose. And that will never change.”The Minnesota senator Tina Smith put it more bluntly: “This is bullshit.”Polls have consistently found that most Americans want Roe to remain the law of the land, and the vast majority want abortion to remain legal in at least some cases.A decision overturning Roe would be the culmination of a 50-year project by anti-abortion activists to remake the federal courts by using their political clout to pressure Republicans to appoint and confirm reliably conservative majorities.In 2016, Donald Trump sealed his support among conservative voters by vowing to nominate supreme court justices who opposed abortion. His presidency yielded three conservative justices, all of whom are reportedly in the majority voting to strike down Roe. They also refused to block a novel Texas law that has effectively outlawed abortion in the nation’s second-largest state.But instead of celebrating the draft ruling, Republican lawmakers on Tuesday were almost singularly focused on the leak, expressing outrage over the disclosure that was likely to further undermine faith in the judiciary as an independent branch of government.“Last night’s stunning breach was an attack on the independence of the supreme court,” the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, wrote in a statement. “By every indication, this was yet another escalation in the radical left’s ongoing campaign to bully and intimidate federal judges and substitute mob rule for the rule of law.”Chief Justice John Roberts said in a statement that he had ordered the marshal of the court to open an investigation into the source of the leak. “This was a singular and egregious breach of that trust that is an affront to the court and the community of public servants who work here,” he said.While the nation awaits a final opinion, pro-choice activists are urging supporters to keep making their voices heard.“Let’s be clear: this is a draft opinion. It’s outrageous, it’s unprecedented, but it is not final,” Planned Parenthood wrote on Twitter. “Abortion is your right – and it is STILL LEGAL.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsAbortionGendernewsReuse this content More