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      Will the Herschel Walker Allegations Actually Matter?

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      The scandal could be decisive even if one in 50 would-be Walker voters change their minds.Why this Herschel Walker episode could be decisive: It’s largely because of the 50-50 nature of Georgia politics. Erik S Lesser/EPA, via ShutterstockWill the Herschel Walker Allegations Actually Matter?I don’t think there’s a question I’m asked more often than: “Will this matter” on Election Day?Usually, the question follows the latest gaffe or breaking news that casts a candidate in a bad light. And usually, my answer is, “No, it will not matter” — or at least a version of “no.” The country is deeply polarized, and voters have a short memory.This week, I’ve been getting that question about the Georgia Senate race. As you’ve probably heard, the Republican nominee Herschel Walker reportedly paid a woman to have an abortion. The woman, who shared her story with The Daily Beast, said she was not only an ex-girlfriend, but also the mother of one of Mr. Walker’s children. Mr. Walker has denied the allegation.It’s too soon to look to polling to judge the political fallout. So far, there has been only one survey fielded entirely since the allegations, covering only one day. That poll, an Insider Advantage survey, showed the Democrat Raphael Warnock up by three points, which does happen to be an improvement for Mr. Warnock compared with its prior poll. Mr. Walker led that one by four points. (State polling is infrequent, so it’s hard to say when we’ll get a better sense from the polls about how or whether the allegations have changed voters’ views.)But regardless of what the next surveys say, I think my short answer to the familiar “will this matter” question is “yes” — or at least a version of “yes.”That’s not because this represents the absolute worst case for Mr. Walker. His success is so vital to his party — in its chances to retake the Senate — that his fellow Republicans are unlikely to throw him overboard.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with the former football star could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Wisconsin Senate Race: Mandela Barnes, the Democratic candidate, is wobbling in his contest against Senator Ron Johnson, the Republican incumbent, as an onslaught of G.O.P. attack ads takes a toll.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.From the standpoint of the party, this might be more like Donald J. Trump after the “Access Hollywood” tape in 2016 than the Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin after his “legitimate rape” comments in 2012. Although denying the allegations of paying for an abortion carries its own risks, it does mean that his party has a way to avoid criticizing him directly. That’s something different from the cases of Mr. Akin or Mr. Trump, who each were captured on tape and so Republicans had to respond to shared facts.One factor that cuts in both directions: The news reinforces a pre-existing narrative about Mr. Walker, who has recently acknowledged he was the father of several children he had not previously mentioned publicly. But for that same reason, he may have already incurred most of the potential reputational damage before this allegation.There’s one other thing that’s odd about this scandal: The voters likeliest to find paying for abortion to be deeply repugnant are also likeliest to be solidly Republican. Many lower-turnout, persuadable or swing voters, in contrast, may be relatively likely to support abortion rights, and may not find this as offensive as another scandal. Hypocrisy is not an unusual accusation for a politician, after all.And yet I’m still inclined to say “yes,” this might really matter. And that’s largely because of the circumstances.First, this was the closest state in the country in 2020: President Biden won Georgia by two-tenths of a point. On paper, this was always likely to be a tight contest — a Democratic incumbent was running in a midterm year in a state slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole. Indeed, the polls showed a very close race (with Mr. Warnock ahead) before the allegations.So in this case, even a modest effect — smaller than a point or two — could be important.Second is the possibility of a runoff election. As you may remember from 2020, Georgia holds runoff elections if no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote on Election Day. This race has long seemed poised to go to a runoff (there is a Libertarian candidate, and the Libertarian usually receives a couple of points in Georgia).For Mr. Walker, the runoff would carry some risk and reward. The possible upside: It will be further from this week’s allegations. The downside is that there won’t be anyone else to help carry him to victory. The state’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, is seemingly likely to defeat Stacey Abrams outright, so a hypothetical Walker-Warnock runoff is likely to be the top of the ticket — the major reason to show up and vote. In the Nov. 8 election by contrast, Mr. Walker may benefit from Kemp supporters and other general election regulars who may reluctantly vote for Mr. Walker, but might not have shown up on his account.If Mr. Walker can’t move past these allegations, would he really be able to get the same Republican turnout he would have otherwise? Wouldn’t Democrats be more motivated to stop him from taking office? Here, the analogy that might be most promising for Democrats is Roy Moore, the Alabama Republican who lost a special election for Senate after numerous women, including several teenagers, accused him of sexual misconduct.I don’t want to start a new Olympic event in “political scandals” for judging Mr. Moore and Mr. Walker. What’s relevant is that Democrats enjoyed a very considerable turnout advantage in that Alabama election, the kind of advantage that can really only happen in a low-turnout special election.The possibility that control of the Senate might be on the line would certainly mitigate the risk of a total collapse in Republican turnout in a runoff. But if the race is as close as the polls and recent electoral history suggest, the scandal might be decisive even if one in 50 would-be Walker voters decide they just don’t need to go out of their way to send him to Washington. More

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      Herschel Walker Sidesteps Abortion Issue at Georgia Campaign Stop

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      WADLEY, Ga. — Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Georgia, drove to a lumber yard on Thursday in this tiny town 150 miles east of Atlanta for his first public event since he was accused of paying for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion. But there was no getting away from the claim that threatens to upend his political aspirations.Asked if he had contacted any of the mothers of his children, one of whom told The Daily Beast he had paid for her abortion, a glasses-clad Mr. Walker told reporters, “No. Why do I need to?”“I know why you’re here,” he told the clutch of reporters, television crews and photographers. “You’re here because the Democrats are desperate to hold onto this seat.”Mr. Walker, a first-time candidate and former football star at the University of Georgia, has been adamantly denying the report, speaking only with conservative media outlets, since it emerged on Monday and prompted charges of hypocrisy. He has supported a ban on abortions with no exceptions for rape, incest or saving the life of the mother.To the news media who met him at Battle Lumber Company, he avoided the issue, calling it a distraction from President Biden’s unpopularity and the president’s alliance with his Democratic opponent, Senator Raphael Warnock. Mr. Walker did not mention the matter to a small group of mill workers who gathered to hear his stump speech — most of whom were unaware of Mr. Walker’s appearance until shortly before he arrived.In a statement Thursday afternoon, he echoed the “America First” language of his political benefactor, Donald J. Trump, when he vowed, “I am running to put Georgia first.”But hours earlier, abortion was still setting the stage for the day. Mr. Walker told the conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt that he did not know the woman making the claim, although she says they had a child together. In discussing the report that he had paid for an abortion, he seemed to undercut his own anti-abortion views, telling Mr. Hewitt, “Had that happened, I would have said it, because it’s nothing to be ashamed of there.”Understand the Herschel Walker Abortion ReportCard 1 of 5The report. More

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      Woman who said Herschel Walker paid for abortion also has child with him – report

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      Woman who said Herschel Walker paid for abortion also has child with him – reportUnnamed woman conceived another child with Republican Senate candidate years after the abortion, according to Daily Beast A woman who said Herschel Walker paid for her abortion in 2009 is the mother of one of his children, according to a new report, undercutting the Georgia Republican Senate candidate’s claim to not know who she was.The pastor v the football player: can Raphael Warnock tackle Herschel Walker?Read moreThe Daily Beast, which first reported the abortion, said it had agreed not to reveal details of the woman’s identity.Walker, who has expressed support for a national abortion ban without exceptions, called the allegation a “flat-out lie”, threatened a lawsuit against the outlet and said he had no idea who the woman might be.In a Thursday interview with the conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, Walker repeatedly called the accusation “untrue”.But Walker added: “If that had happened, I would have said there’s nothing to be ashamed of there. People have done that – but I know nothing about it.”On Wednesday night, the Beast revealed that the woman was so well known to Walker that, according to her, they conceived another child years after the abortion. She decided to continue with the pregnancy, though she noted that Walker, as during the earlier pregnancy, expressed that it wasn’t a convenient time for him, the outlet reported.The Beast said the Walker campaign declined to comment. Walker is scheduled to make a public appearance on Thursday morning in Wadley, Georgia.The latest reporting ensures that abortion will continue to be a central issue in the Georgia race, one of the most competitive Senate contests. Walker and the Democratic senator, Raphael Warnock, are locked in a tight contest that is key to the balance of power in the Senate.A series of stories have shaken Walker’s campaign. The former NFL star has been accused of repeatedly threatening his ex-wife’s life, exaggerating claims of financial success and overstating his role in a for-profit program alleged to have preyed on veterans and service members while defrauding the government.Earlier this year, after a story by the Beast, Walker acknowledged the existence of three children he had not previously talked about.The woman told the Beast for Wednesday’s story that his denial of the abortion was somewhat surprising to her.“Sure, I was stunned, but I guess it also doesn’t shock me, that maybe there are just so many of us that he truly doesn’t remember,” the woman said. “But then again, if he really forgot about it, that says something, too.”In the Beast report published late on Monday, the outlet said it reviewed a receipt showing the woman’s payment for the procedure, along with a get-well card from Walker and bank deposit records showing a $700 personal check from Walker dated five days after the abortion receipt.During the Republican primary, Walker backed a national ban on abortions with no exceptions for cases involving rape, incest or a woman’s health being at risk – particularly notable at a time when the 1973 Roe v Wade supreme court precedent had been overturned and Democrats in Congress were discussing codifying abortion rights.“I’m for life,” Walker has said repeatedly. Asked about whether he would allow for any exceptions, he has said there are “no excuses”.As the Republican nominee, Walker has sometimes sidestepped questions about his earlier support for a national abortion ban, a tacit nod to the fact that most voters, including many Republicans, want at least some legal access to abortion.TopicsUS politicsGeorgiaAbortionnewsReuse this content More

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      ‘The Run-Up’: Can Democrats Catch up to Years of Republican Unity?

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      Listen and follow ‘The Run-Up’Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Amazon MusicOn today’s episode: How the Republican grass roots got years ahead of a changing country, and whether the Democrats can catch up.Emil Lippe for The New York TimesGuestsJ. David Goodman, The Times’s Houston bureau chief, covering Texas.Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Democrat of New York.Background ReadingPatriot Mobile, a Christian cellphone company, is spending money to promote conservative views on race and gender in schools. Read J. David Goodman’s reporting on how the company has become a rising force in Texas politics.Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, Democrats in difficult re-election races are reorienting their campaigns around abortion rights.Credits“The Run-Up” is hosted by More

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      Woman Who Said Herschel Walker Paid for Abortion Is Also Mother of His Child, Report Says

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      ATLANTA — The woman who told The Daily Beast on Monday that Herschel Walker had paid for her abortion in 2009 told the outlet on Wednesday that she was the mother of one of his children, undercutting his defense that he did not know her identity.Mr. Walker, the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia, had swiftly denounced the original Daily Beast article, denying its veracity and pledging to sue the outlet for defamation. So far, the campaign has not pursued any legal action.When asked earlier Wednesday by Brian Kilmeade of Fox News whether he knew the woman’s identity, Mr. Walker said “not at all.”“It’s sort of like everyone is anonymous, everyone is leaking. They want you to confess to something you have no clue about,” he said of Democrats and reporters. “But it just shows how desperate they are right now.”The woman, who told The Daily Beast she wished to remain anonymous to preserve her privacy and that of her child with Mr. Walker, provided the outlet with a copy of the receipt from the abortion clinic, a $700 check and a “get well soon” card signed by Mr. Walker. The article includes a photo of the card with what it said was Mr. Walker’s signature.The woman told The Daily Beast she was moved to say more about her relationship with Mr. Walker and the child they had together after he said he did not know her identity. The New York Times has not been able to independently confirm The Daily Beast’s reporting.Representatives for Mr. Walker’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.Since beginning his campaign in 2021, Mr. Walker has contended with a flurry of reports scrutinizing his personal and professional life. Mr. Walker, a former University of Georgia football star, has lied about and exaggerated his business dealings, and he failed to disclose three children from previous relationships that he did not mention publicly.More recently, Democrats have put Mr. Walker’s history of domestic violence at the center of their campaign message. One television advertisement from a Democratic-aligned group, Georgia Honor, shows footage of Mr. Walker’s ex-wife, Cindy Grossman, detailing a moment when he held a gun to her temple and threatened to kill her, calling the episode “not an isolated incident.” The spot has been running in Georgia’s largest media markets for a week. More

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      GOP Governor Candidate in Kansas Walks Abortion Tightrope in a Debate

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      As Republicans on the ballot this fall navigate treacherous terrain on abortion, Derek Schmidt, the party’s nominee for governor in Kansas, said in a debate on Wednesday that officials would “have to respect” the decision voters made in August to preserve abortion rights in the state.Mr. Schmidt, the state’s attorney general, said that if he were to be elected over Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, he would defend the restrictions Kansas already has on the books, which include a ban on most abortions after 22 weeks. But, in contrast to Republicans in many other states and longtime conservative orthodoxy, he did not call for stricter ones.“Well, I am pro-life,” Mr. Schmidt said when asked what changes, if any, he would make to the state’s abortion laws if elected. “I prefer a Kansas that has fewer abortions, not more. Obviously, Kansas voters spoke to a portion of this issue in August and made the decision that any state involvement in this area is going to have to satisfy exacting judicial scrutiny, and we have to respect that decision going forward.”After those comments, which echoed remarks he made about a month ago, he turned his focus to Ms. Kelly, saying she had not identified “any limitation on abortion that she would support.”Kansans’ resounding vote against an amendment to remove abortion protections from the state’s constitution was the first to reveal the depths of the electoral backlash to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Since then, Republican candidates have often sought to paint Democrats as out of step with public opinion by saying they support unlimited abortion policies, while dissociating themselves from the near-total bans that have taken effect in several states.Responding to the same question asked of Mr. Schmidt, Ms. Kelly said that “an overwhelming majority of Kansans” had expressed their support for abortion rights and added, “I believe and always have believed — and have been very consistent in my position on this — that a women’s medical decisions should be made between her, her family and her doctor, and that women should have bodily autonomy equal to that of men.”When Mr. Schmidt repeated his attack, Ms. Kelly did not engage.“I really for 18 years have had the same position on this issue,” she said. “So I really don’t have much more to say.”Ms. Kelly and Mr. Schmidt’s race is one of the most competitive governor’s races in the country this year. Nationally, many Democrats in close contests have seized on abortion as a campaign issue, while many Republicans have hastened away from it.A day earlier, former Gov. Paul LePage of Maine, a Republican, stumbled in his debate on Tuesday against Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat, when she challenged him on abortion. More

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      LePage Stumbles on Abortion Questioning in Maine Governor’s Debate

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      Republicans’ struggles to find an effective abortion message this campaign season manifested itself on Tuesday on a debate stage in the Maine governor’s race, as former Gov. Paul LePage repeatedly stumbled over a question about how he would handle the issue if voters returned him to office.The issue has been an advantage for Democrats, whose base has been energized after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade while Republicans face a dilemma over how to reassure swing voters without alienating their conservative base. Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat seeking a second four-year term, seemed to sense her opportunity while seated a few feet from Mr. LePage, a Republican who left office in 2019 because of Maine’s prohibition on serving a third consecutive term.Asked whether she would remove state restrictions on abortion, Ms. Mills said she supported the current law. Maine permits abortions until viability, generally until 24 to 28 weeks, when a fetus could survive outside a mother’s uterus.“My veto power,” Ms. Mills said, “will stand in the way of efforts to roll back, undermine or outright eliminate the right to safe and legal abortion in Maine.”Mr. LePage was then asked whether he would sign a bill that placed additional restrictions on abortions in the state. While Democrats hold majorities in both chambers of Maine’s Legislature, Republicans are making a play to flip both in November.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with him could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Trouble for Nevada Democrats: The state has long been vital to the party’s hold on the West. Now, Democrats are facing potential losses up and down the ballot.“I support the current law,” Mr. LePage said.“And if they brought those bills to you, you would not sign them?” asked one of the moderators, Penelope Overton, a staff writer for The Portland Press Herald.“That is correct,” he answered.Ms. Mills then jumped in and pointed out that in Maine, a bill can become law without the governor’s signature.“Would you let it go into law without your signature?” Ms. Mills asked.“I don’t know. I would look — that’s a hypothetical,” Mr. LePage said.“You were governor,” Ms. Mills continued. “You know what the options are.”“Wait a second,” Mr. LePage said, throwing his hands in the air.“Would you let it go into law without your signature?” Ms. Mills asked, turning to her left to face her predecessor and repeatedly point at him.Mr. LePage dropped a pen he had been holding, and bent over to pick it up off the ground.“Would you allow a baby to take a breath?” he asked, twisting the pen in his hands. “Would you allow the baby to take a breath, then —”Mr. LePage broke off his question. It was unclear what he was asking, and a campaign spokesman didn’t immediately respond to requests to clarify or comment for this article.Ms. Mills, now sitting back in her chair with her legs crossed and her hands folded flatly on the table in front of her, continued to press.“Would you allow a restrictive law to go into effect without your signature?” she asked, staring at Mr. LePage. “Would you block a restriction on abortion?”“Would I block?” Mr. LePage said. “This is what I would do,” he added, chopping both hands in the air in front of him. “The law that is in place right now, I have the same exact place you have. I would honor the law as it is. You’re talking about a hypothetical.”“No,” Ms. Mills said with a smile. “We’re not.”Ms. Overton reminded Mr. LePage that she had asked about whether or not he would veto additional abortion restrictions.“I’m not sure I understand the question,” Mr. LePage said.“I do understand the question,” Ms. Mills interjected. “My veto pen would stand in the way.”“When you say restrictions, I am trying to understand,” Mr. LePage said.Another moderator, Jennifer Rooks, who hosts a radio show on Maine Public, stepped in and asked Mr. LePage what he would do if lawmakers passed a bill to ban abortions after 15 weeks.“Would you veto that?” Ms. Rooks asked.“Yes,” Mr. LePage said, nodding his head.Earlier in the week, Mr. LePage had boasted that he wasn’t planning to prepare for the debate against Ms. Mills, according to The Bangor Daily News.“I’ll eat her lunch,” he said. More