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      Republicans Begin Adjusting to a Fierce Abortion Backlash

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      Republican candidates, facing a stark reality check from Kansas voters, are softening their once-uncompromising stands against abortion as they move toward the general election, recognizing that strict bans are unpopular and that the issue may be a major driver in the fall campaigns.In swing states and even conservative corners of the country, several Republicans have shifted their talk on abortion bans, newly emphasizing support for exceptions. Some have noticeably stopped discussing details at all. Pitched battles in Republican-dominated state legislatures have broken out now that the Supreme Court has made what has long been a theoretical argument a reality.In Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, the Republicans’ ardently anti-abortion candidate for governor, has lately taken to saying “the people of Pennsylvania” will “decide what abortion looks like” in the state, not the governor. In Minnesota, Scott Jensen, a family physician who said in March that he would “try to ban abortion” as governor, said in a video released before the Kansas vote that he does support some exceptions: “If I’ve been unclear previously, I want to be clear now.”Republican consultants for Senate and House campaigns said Thursday that while they still believe inflation and the economy will drive voters to the G.O.P., candidates are going to have to talk about abortion to blunt Democratic attacks that the party’s position is extreme. They have started advising Republicans to endorse bans that allow exceptions for pregnancies from rape or incest or those that threaten the life of the mother. They have told candidates to emphasize care for women during and after their pregnancies.Representative Nancy Mace won an exemption for rape and incest in South Carolina’s abortion law.Logan R. Cyrus for The New York Times“If we are going to ban abortion, there are things we’ve got to do to make sure the need for abortion is reduced, and that women are not endangered,” said Representative Nancy Mace, Republican of South Carolina, who won an exemption for rape and incest in her state’s abortion law as a state representative. Now, she says Republicans need to press to expand access to gynecological and obstetrics care, contraception, including emergency contraception, and even protect the right of women to leave their states to get an abortion without fear of prosecution.Messaging alone cannot free the G.O.P. from the drumbeat of news after the Supreme Court’s decision, including the story of a 10-year-old rape victim who crossed state lines to receive an abortion, and headlines about women who confronted serious health problems under new, far-reaching restrictions or bans.On Thursday, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who has recently avoided talking about abortion, suspended a state attorney from Hillsborough County who refused to prosecute people who try to provide abortions prohibited by the state’s new 15-week ban, prompting angry recriminations from Democrats.The recalibration for some began before voters of deeply Republican Kansas voted overwhelming on Tuesday against removing abortion rights from the state’s constitution. Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, retracting the constitutional right to the procedure, many Republicans were slow to detail what would come next. As they rush to enact long-promised laws, Republican-led legislatures have learned how difficult banning abortion can be.“Not just the pro-choice movement but the pro-life movement was caught by surprise” by the Supreme Court, said Brandon Steele, a West Virginia delegate who pressed for an abortion ban without exceptions in a special session of the legislature that ended this week with the Republican supermajority stymied. “Without having the talking points, without being told what to do, legislators had to start saying what they were actually going to do. You could see the confusion in the room.”“We’re finding out who is really pro-life and who is pro-life only to get elected, not just in West Virginia but across the country,” Mr. Steele said.Activists on both sides of the abortion issue gathered last month in the Indiana Statehouse in Indianapolis during a special session of the state legislature to consider a near-total abortion ban.Kaiti Sullivan for The New York TimesIn Indiana, a special session of the state legislature to consider a near-total abortion ban has had brutal debates over whether to include exemptions and how far those exemptions should go.More Coverage of the Kansas Abortion VoteA Resounding Decision: Kansas voters overwhelmingly rejected an amendment that would have removed the right to abortion from the State Constitution, a major win for the abortion rights movement in a deep-red state.Midterm Reverberations: After the stunning result, the first post-Roe vote on abortion rights, emboldened Democrats vowed to elevate the issue in races across the country.A Huge Turnout: The victory for abortion rights in Kansas relied on a broad coalition of voters who crashed through party and geographic lines.What the Vote Suggests: A Times analysis of the results in Kansas shows that around 65 percent of voters nationwide would reject a similar ballot initiative, including in more than 40 of the 50 states.“For some it’s very black and white: if you’re pro-life with no exceptions or if you’re pro-choice with no restrictions,” said State Senator Kyle Walker, an Indiana Republican who said abortion should be legal during at least the first trimester of pregnancy. “When you are in the gray area, you are forced to reconcile in your own mind where your own limits are.”For months, Republicans have maintained that abortion rights would be a footnote in a midterm campaign driven by the worst inflation in 40 years, crime, immigration and a Democratic president whose approval ratings are mired around 40 percent.That is still the public line, even after the Kansas referendum, where voters faced a single issue, not the multiplicity of factors they will be considering in November.But the reality on the campaign trail is different. Sarah Longwell, a Republican pollster, said in her focus groups that swing voters do bring up inflation and the economy when asked what issues are on their minds. But when prompted to discuss abortion, real passion flares. That indicates that if Democrats can prosecute a campaign to keep the issue front and center, they will find an audience, she said.Ms. Mace agreed, saying that abortion is rising fast and that Republicans have to respond.In Minnesota, Dr. Jensen, the Republican candidate expected to take on Gov. Tim Walz, suggested it was interactions with voters after the fall of Roe that, he said, prompted him to clarify his position on abortion.“Once the Roe v. Wade decision was overturned, we told Minnesota, and basically told everybody that we would engage in a conversation,” he said. “During that conversation, I learned of the need for me to elaborate on my position.”Scott Jensen at the Minnesota State Republican Convention in Rochester in May.Glen Stubbe/Star Tribune, via Associated PressThat elaboration included embracing a family and maternity leave program, promoting a $2,500-per-child adoption tax credit, and improving access to birth control, including providing oral contraceptives over the counter with a price ceiling. And, like Adam Laxalt, the G.O.P. Senate nominee in Nevada, Dr. Jensen pointed to abortion protections already in place in Minnesota to cast the matter as settled rather than on the ballot this year.Mr. Walz said he would stay on offense, and not accept any softening of the Republican line.“I take them at their first word,” he said of Dr. Jensen and his running mate, Matt Birk, a former N.F.L. player and anti-abortion rights advocate. “If they get the opportunity they will criminalize this while we’re trying to protect it. So it’s become a central theme, obviously, I think that flip on their part was in response to that.”The Kansas vote implies that around 65 percent of voters nationwide would reject rolling back abortion rights, including a majority in more than 40 of the 50 states, according to a New York Times analysis.Republicans believe their party can grab the mantle of moderation from Democrats, in part by conveying empathy toward pregnant women and offering exemptions to abortion bans, and casting Democrats as the extremists when it comes to regulating abortion. If Democrats insist on making abortion the centerpiece of their campaigns, they argue, they risk looking out of touch with voters in an uncertain economy.Supporters of the abortion referendum in Kansas monitored results at a watch party in Overland Park on Tuesday night.Christopher (KS) Smith for The New York TimesBut Republicans who moderate their views must still contend with a core base of support that remains staunchly anti-abortion. Abortion opponents said Thursday that Republican candidates should not read too much into the Kansas vote, a single-issue referendum with language that was criticized by voters on both sides as confusing.“Regardless of what the consultant class is telling the candidates, they would be wise to recognize that the right-to-life community is an important constituency and an important demographic of voters,” warned Penny Nance, chief executive and president of Concerned Women for America, a conservative organization that opposes abortion rights.After the Kansas vote, Democrats stepped up efforts to squeeze their opponents between a conservative base eager for quick action to ban all abortions and a broader electorate that wants no such thing. Representative Elaine Luria, a moderate Democrat running in a Republican-leaning district in southeastern Virginia, released a new advertisement against her Republican opponent, Jen Kiggans, painting her as “too extreme” on abortion. Ms. Luria had initially said she would campaign on her work for the district and her support for the Navy, a big force in the region, but the landscape has shifted. Ms. Kiggans’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.Tudor Dixon speaking in Grand Rapids, Mich., after winning the Republican nomination for governor.Emily Elconin for The New York TimesA group aligned with the Democratic Governors Association is already advertising off abortion-related remarks made by Tudor Dixon of Michigan, who won the Republican nomination for governor this week.“If you take Tudor Dixon at her word when it comes to outlawing abortion, she’s told us exactly who she is,” the spot, titled “No Exceptions,” intones, featuring clips of Ms. Dixon highlighting her opposition to a range of abortion-related exceptions. Ms. Dixon was unambiguous about her position earlier this summer, writing on Twitter, “My only exception is to protect the LIFE of the mother.”In a lengthy statement that highlighted her opposition to an expected ballot measure in Michigan intended to protect abortion rights, Ms. Dixon also insisted that her race would be defined by jobs, schools, crime and being “able to afford your gas and groceries.”For Republicans, one problem might be the extensive trail on the issue they left during the primary season.In May, Mr. Mastriano was unequivocal in Pennsylvania as he courted Republican primary voters: “That baby deserves a right to life whether it is conceived in incest or rape or there are concerns otherwise for the mom.”Last month, he said it was not up to him. “You decide on exceptions. You decide on how early. And that’s in the hands of the people,” he said on Philadelphia talk radio. “That’s a fact. That’s not a dodge.”Mitch Smith More

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      The Kansas victory shows that Democrats can fight for abortion rights and win | Moira Donegan

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      The Kansas victory shows that Democrats can fight for abortion rights and winMoira DoneganEven in conservative Kansas, abortion rights are popular. The Democrats need to stop shying away from abortion and make it a campaign issue It wasn’t even close; it was a blowout. With an unexpectedly large turnout and a huge margin, Kansas voters on Tuesday rejected a measure that would have removed the right to an abortion from their state’s constitution. Nearly 60% of voters in the deeply conservative state rejected the anti-abortion measure. Only about 40% supported it.Tuesday’s primaries offered a glint of hope for Democrats this fall | Lloyd GreenRead moreThe so-called Value Them Both Act would have dramatically devalued women in Kansas. The bill was designed to amend the state’s constitution in response to a 2019 ruling by the state supreme court, which found that abortion was protected in the state charter’s guarantee of “equal and inalienable rights” to all citizens. In contrast to the US supreme court, the Kansas court rejected the idea that civil rights were frozen in time at the time of the document’s ratification; instead, they extended those equal rights to women. “We are now asked: is this declaration of rights more than an idealized aspiration?” the court wrote. “And, if so, do the substantive rights include a woman’s right to make decisions about her body, including the decision whether to continue her pregnancy? We answer these questions, ‘Yes.’” Overwhelmingly, by a margin of roughly 20 points, Kansan voters agreed with them.It was the first electoral test of support for abortion rights since the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade in June, and the results were unambiguous. Even in conservative Kansas, abortion rights are popular with most Americans. Even in conservative Kansas, abortion bans are offensive to them.On paper, this shouldn’t have been surprising. Americans have a wide range of opinions on abortion, but broadly, the notion that women and others should have a legal right to end their pregnancy is very popular, capturing somewhere between 60% and 70% support. Accordingly, ballot initiatives asking voters to restrict abortion tend to fail, according to New York Magazine correspondent Irin Carmon. A measure that would have granted personhood rights to fetuses and embryos failed in very conservative Mississippi in 2011. A municipal ballot measure that aimed to ban abortions after 20 weeks in the city of Albuquerque, New Mexico, failed by a large margin in an unusually high-turnout election in 2013. When South Dakota passed an abortion ban in 2006, pro-choice advocates managed to collect enough signatures to put the measure to a popular vote. The electorate threw that out, too.The US supreme court’s ruling overturning Roe v Wade is particularly unpopular with the public, and has incited renewed passion for the pro-choice cause. According to polling from CNN, 63% of Americans – almost two-thirds – say they disapprove of the court’s ruling. A little more than half of them, 51%, say they disapprove “strongly”. This public outrage is clearly translating into votes. After the court reversed Roe on 24 June, many states saw a surge in new voter registrations. In Kansas, 70% of those new voters were women.There were some indications that the anti-abortion side was nervous, even before their resounding defeat on election day. They played dirty. The vote was scheduled for a blindingly hot primary day in August, when turnouts are usually low and Republicans fare better. In the days before the election, a Republican-aligned firm in Nevada sent out texts to Kansas voters. “Women in Kansas are losing their choice on reproductive rights,” the texts read. “Voting YES on the Amendment will give women a choice. Vote YES to protect women’s health.” A yes vote on the constitutional amendment would have been a vote against abortion rights. Clearly, the anti-choice Republicans didn’t think they could win on the merits. Turns out, they couldn’t.But you would never know how resoundingly popular abortion rights are from the behavior of the Democrats, who for the past three decades, and since the election of Donald Trump specifically, have been allergic to full-throated defenses of reproductive rights and other so-called “culture war” issues.The party’s centrist leadership has made the calculation that only economic issues – defined, in practice, as issues that affect white men – can garner voters’ enthusiasm. The Biden administration was flat-footed and inept in its response to Dobbs, agreeing to take only the flimsiest and most risk-averse steps to restore abortion access and alienating huge swaths of its base as it attempted to keep the focus on its efforts to curb inflation. Biden hardly ever even says “abortion”. You get the sense he would much rather not be talking about it at all.But the results in Kansas suggest that he should be. The ballot initiative on abortion produced a massive turnout. Abortion rights got considerably more electoral support than Joe Biden did in most Kansas counties. It’s a so-called “culture war” issue that brought voters out in droves to vote for a Democratic agenda item. The Kansas vote shows that the overturning of Roe has created a moral emergency that voters will respond to. Ignoring these “culture war” issues does not make the Democrats look sensible and moderate. It makes them look like cowards, running away from a fight.What Republicans want to do to America, especially with regard to abortion rights, is unpopular. More importantly, it is anti-democratic and immoral. This is a fight that the voters want to take on. It’s time for the Democratic party to join them.
      Moira Donegan is a Guardian US columnist
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      How Democrats See Abortion Politics After Kansas Vote

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      A decisive vote to defend abortion rights in deeply conservative Kansas reverberated across the midterm campaign landscape on Wednesday, galvanizing Democrats and underscoring for Republicans the risks of overreaching on one of the most emotionally charged matters in American politics.In a state where Republicans far outnumber Democrats, Kansans delivered a clear message in the first major vote testing the potency of abortion politics since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade: Abortion opponents are going too far.The overwhelming defeat of a measure that would have removed abortion protections from the state constitution quickly emboldened Democrats to run more assertively on abortion rights and even to reclaim some of the language long deployed by conservatives against government overreach, using it to cast abortion bans as infringing on personal freedoms. (As of Wednesday, the margin was 58.8 percent to 41.2 percent.)“The court practically dared women in this country to go to the ballot box to restore the right to choose,” President Biden said by video Wednesday, as he signed an executive order aimed at helping Americans cross state lines for abortions. “They don’t have a clue about the power of American women.”In interviews, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, urged Democrats to be “full-throated” in their support of abortion access, and Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, the chairman of the House Democratic campaign arm, said the Kansas vote offered a “preview of coming attractions” for Republicans. Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Michigan Democrat in a highly competitive district, issued a statement saying that abortion access “hits at the core of preserving personal freedom, and of ensuring that women, and not the government, can decide their own fate.”Republicans said the midterm campaigns would be defined by Mr. Biden’s disastrous approval ratings and economic concerns.Supporters of the measure that was on the ballot, which would have removed abortion protections from the Kansas constitution, embraced after the outcome was called on Tuesday.Christopher (KS) Smith for The New York TimesBoth Republicans and Democrats caution against conflating the results of an up-or-down ballot question with how Americans will vote in November, when they will be weighing a long list of issues, personalities and their views of Democratic control of Washington.“Add in candidates and a much more robust conversation about lots of other issues, this single issue isn’t going to drive the full national narrative that the Democrats are hoping for,” said David Kochel, a veteran of Republican politics in nearby Iowa. Still, Mr. Kochel acknowledged the risks of Republicans’ overstepping, as social conservatives push for abortion bans with few exceptions that polls generally show to be unpopular.“The base of the G.O.P. is definitely ahead of where the voters are in wanting to restrict abortion,” he said. “That’s the main lesson of Kansas.”Read More on Abortion Issues in AmericaKansas Abortion Vote: In the first election test since Roe v. Wade was overturned, Kansas voters resoundingly decided against removing the right to abortion from the State Constitution, a major victory for the abortion rights movement in a reliably conservative state.Justice Dept. Lawsuit: The Biden administration sued Idaho over a strict state abortion law set to take effect. The suit is the first new litigation filed by the federal government to protect abortion access since the end of Roe.One Woman’s Abortion Odyssey: She was thrilled to learn that she was pregnant. But when a rare fetal defect threatened her life, she was thrust into post-Roe chaos.A National Pattern: A Times analysis shows that states with abortion bans have among the nation’s weakest social services for women and children.Polls have long shown most Americans support at least some abortion rights. But abortion opponents have been far more likely to let the issue determine their vote, leading to a passion gap between the two sides of the issue. Democrats hoped the Supreme Court decision this summer erasing the constitutional right to an abortion would change that, as Republican-led states rushed to enact new restrictions, and outright bans on the procedure took hold.The Kansas vote was the most concrete evidence yet that a broad swath of voters — including some Republicans who still support their party in November — were ready to push back. Kansans voted down the amendment in Johnson County — home to the populous, moderate suburbs outside Kansas City — rejecting the measure with about 70 percent of the vote, a sign of the power of this issue in suburban battlegrounds nationwide. But the amendment was also defeated in more conservative counties, as abortion rights support outpaced Mr. Biden’s showing in 2020 nearly everywhere.After months of struggling with their own disengaged if not demoralized base, Democratic strategists and officials hoped the results signaled a sort of awakening. They argued that abortion rights are a powerful part of the effort to cast Republicans as extremists and turn the 2022 elections into a choice between two parties, rather than a referendum just on Democrats.“The Republicans who are running for office are quite open about their support for banning abortion,” said Senator Warren. “It’s critical that Democrats make equally clear that this is a key difference, and Democrats will stand up for letting the pregnant person make the decision, not the government.”A Kansas-style referendum will be a rarity this election year, with only four other states expected to put abortion rights directly to voters in November with measures to amend their constitutions: California, Michigan, Vermont and Kentucky. However, the issue has already emerged as a defining debate in some key races, including in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Democratic candidates for governor have cast themselves as bulwarks against far-reaching abortion restrictions or bans. On Tuesday, Michigan Republicans nominated Tudor Dixon, a former conservative commentator, for governor, who has opposed abortion in cases of rape and incest.Voting in the primary election in Topeka, Kan., on Tuesday.Katie Currid for The New York TimesAnd in Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, the far-right Republican nominee for governor, said, “I don’t give a way for exceptions” when asked whether he believes in exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother. Governor’s contests in states including Wisconsin and Georgia could also directly affect abortion rights.Other tests of the impact of abortion on races are coming sooner. North of New York City, a Democrat running in a special House election this month, Pat Ryan, has made abortion rights a centerpiece of his campaign, casting the race as another measure of the issue’s power this year.“We have to step up and make sure our core freedoms are protected and defended,” said Mr. Ryan, the Ulster County executive in New York, who had closely watched the Kansas results.Opponents of the Kansas referendum leaned into that “freedom” message, with advertising that cast the effort as nothing short of a government mandate — anathema to voters long mistrustful of too much intervention from Topeka and Washington — and sometimes without using the word “abortion” at all.Some of the messaging was aimed at moderate, often suburban voters who have toggled between the parties in recent elections. Strategists in both parties agreed that abortion rights could be salient with those voters, particularly women, in the fall. Democrats also pointed to evidence that the issue may also drive up turnout among their base voters.After the Supreme Court’s decision, Democrats registered to vote at a faster rate than Republicans in Kansas, according a memo from Tom Bonier, the chief executive of TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm. Mr. Bonier said his analysis found roughly 70 percent of Kansans who registered after the court’s decision were women.“It is malpractice to not continue to center this issue for the remainder of this election season — and beyond,” said Tracy Sefl, a Democratic strategist. “What Democrats should say is that for Americans your bedroom is on the ballot this November.”Inside the Democratic Party, there has been a fierce debate since Roe was overturned over how much to talk about abortion rights at a time of rising prices and a rocky economy — and that is likely to intensify. There is always the risk, some longtime strategists warn, of getting distracted from the issues that polls show are still driving most Americans.Senator Brian Schatz, Democrat of Hawaii, said he understood the hesitancy from party stalwarts.“The energy is on the side of abortion rights,” he said. “For decades that hasn’t been true so it’s difficult for some people who have been through lots of tough battles and lots of tough states to recognize that the ground has shifted under them. But it has.”He urged Democrats to ignore polling that showed abortion was not a top-tier issue, adding that “voters take their cues from leaders” and Democrats need to discuss abortion access more. “When your pollster or your strategist says, ‘Take an abortion question and pivot away from it’ you should probably resist,” he said.A Kaiser Family Foundation poll released this week showed that the issue of abortion access had become more salient for women 18 to 49 years old, with a 14-percentage-point jump since February for those who say it will be very important to their vote in midterm elections, up to 73 percent.That is roughly equal to the share of voters overall who said inflation would be very important this fall — and a sign of how animating abortion has become for many women.Still, Republicans said they would not let their focus veer from the issues they have been hammering for months.“This fall, voters will consider abortion alongside of inflation, education, crime, national security and a feeling that no one in Democrat-controlled Washington listens to them or cares about them,” said Kellyanne Conway, the Republican pollster and former senior Trump White House adviser.Michael McAdams, the communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that if Democrats focused the fall campaign on abortion they would be ignoring the economy and record-high prices: “the No. 1 issue in every competitive district.”One of the most endangered Democrats in the House, Representative Tom Malinowski of New Jersey, agreed that “the economy is the defining issue for people.”“But there is a relationship here, because voters want leaders to be focused on fighting inflation, not banning abortion,” he said. Mr. Malinowski, who said he was planning to advertise on abortion rights, said the results in Kansas had affirmed for him the significance of abortion and the public’s desire to keep government out of such personal decisions.“There is enormous energy among voters and potential voters this fall to make that point,” he said.Peter Baker More

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      Where Trump Counties in Kansas Chose to Preserve Abortion Rights

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      Voters in Kansas on Tuesday overwhelmingly rejected a constitutional amendment that would have removed the right to abortion from the State Constitution. The decisive margin — 59 to 41 percent, with about 95 percent of the votes counted — came as a surprise in a deeply conservative state that President Donald J. Trump won by […] More

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      The Anti-Abortion Movement Needs Minority Rule

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      One side effect of Roe v. Wade was that it allowed the anti-abortion movement to pretend to be on the side of democracy. True, the decision was popular, and majorities since the 1970s have wanted to see abortion legal in at least some circumstances. But Roe prevented duly elected state governments from passing abortion restrictions that were in some cases also popular with their constituents. The goal of the anti-abortion movement was and remains national prohibition. Its language called for returning the matter to the state voters.The stunning result in an abortion referendum in Kansas on Tuesday, however, shows that even in a very red state, bans cannot necessarily survive contact with democracy. Kansas has its own version of Roe, a 2019 State Supreme Court decision holding that the state Constitution protects “a woman’s right to make decisions about her body, including the decision whether to continue her pregnancy.” The referendum, the first statewide test of electoral sentiment about abortion post-Roe, asked voters whether they wanted to change the Constitution so the Republican-controlled Legislature could ban abortions. They did not.When I spoke to pro-choice organizers last month, they were cautiously optimistic that the vote would be close, though they worried about its timing. Rather than scheduling the referendum for the general election, Republicans put it on the primary ballot, when conservative turnout is typically higher. The pro-choice side needed to get people to show up on a day when they weren’t used to voting. As far as I can tell, no one expected the 18-point landslide in a state that voted for Donald Trump by 15 points.Then again, maybe we should have. It’s not uncommon for abortion bans to fail in state referendums. In 2006, South Dakota voters overturned a strict abortion ban, a direct challenge to Roe, by 11 points. In 2011, Mississippi voters rejected a constitutional amendment defining a fertilized egg as a person by 17 percentage points. Even in the most conservative parts of the country, many people recoil from strict abortion bans.I hope Kansas sends a message to other red states that have passed draconian abortion prohibitions or are weighing them. I’m not sure it will, because those bans are often an expression not of democratic wishes, but of lawmakers’ insulation from democratic accountability. An extreme example is Wisconsin, a purple state with a Democratic governor that voted for Joe Biden in the last election. When Roe was overturned, there was widespread confusion about whether an 1849 abortion ban had gone back into effect, and as a result, abortion services have been halted.There is little reason to think that this is what the people of Wisconsin want, but it’s not clear if they can pass a law to change it, because state legislative maps are drawn in a way that gives Republicans an overwhelming advantage. According to a University of Wisconsin Law School analysis, if Democrats and Republicans got the same number of votes, Republicans would win 64.8 percent of State Senate seats, and Democrats around 35.2 percent.Obviously, this doesn’t mean that the backlash to the Supreme Court decision jettisoning Roe won’t have important electoral implications. Since it came down, polls show a shift toward Democrats in the midterm congressional vote. Some politicians, like Nicole Malliotakis, the only Republican member of Congress from New York City, will likely be damaged by their opposition to legal abortion.Still, votes for abortion rights don’t automatically translate into votes for Democrats, because partisan identification is often more powerful than issue preference. In 2020, Missouri voters approved a constitutional amendment expanding Medicaid eligibility, but the state has continued to favor Republicans overwhelmingly. The same year, Florida’s voters opted to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour even as they gave a majority to Trump.Clearly, however, there are substantial numbers of voters outraged by abortion bans and ready to express their anger at the ballot box. Kansas’s secretary of state predicted that turnout on Tuesday would be 36 percent. It ended up being closer to 50 percent, almost as high as in the 2018 general election.The anti-abortion movement has already been aided by minority rule. Roe’s end was made possible because a president who lost the popular vote was able to put three judges on the Supreme Court. The filibuster means that even with the support of the pro-choice Republican senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, the Senate can’t codify any of Roe’s protections.As time goes on, and the harrowing consequences of abortion bans pile up, abortion opponents will need ever greater limits on popular sovereignty in order to impose their regime on an unwilling nation. The cause of “life,” as abortion opponents define it, will likely merge with the broader Republican campaign to disenfranchise those it defines as outside the blessed circle of real Americanness.In a recent New York Times Magazine cover story, Charles Homans described how the “Stop the Steal” movement transcended Donald Trump. “The hole he punched in American democracy, out of sheer self-interest, had allowed his followers to glimpse a vision of the country restored to its divinely ordained promise that lay beyond that democracy — but also beyond him,” wrote Homans. The Kansas referendum demonstrated that democracy in America can still work, and why the forces of religious authoritarianism are so set on destroying it.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Is It All About ‘Fealty to Trump’s Delusions’? Three Writers Talk About Where the G.O.P. Is Headed

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      Ross Douthat, a Times Opinion columnist, hosted an online conversation with Rachel Bovard, the policy director at the Conservative Partnership Institute, and Tim Miller, the author of “Why We Did It: A Travelogue From the Republican Road to Hell,” about the recent primaries in Arizona, Michigan and beyond, and the strength of Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican Party.Ross Douthat: Rachel, Tim, thanks so much for joining me. I’m going to start where we always tend to start in these discussions — with the former president of the United States and his influence over the Republican Party. Donald Trump has had some bad primary nights this year, most notably in May in Georgia.But overall Tuesday seems like it was a good one for him: In Michigan, his favored candidate narrowly beat Peter Meijer, one of the House Republican votes for impeachment. In the Arizona Republican primary for governor, Kari Lake is narrowly ahead, which would give Trump a big victory in his battle of endorsements against Mike Pence, who endorsed Lake’s main rival.Do you agree, or is Trump’s influence just the wrong lens through which to be assessing some of these races?Rachel Bovard: It was a good night for Trump’s endorsements, which remain critical and decisive, particularly when he’s picking candidates who can change the ideological direction of the party. No other major figure in the G.O.P. has shown they can do the same.Tim Miller: An early agreement! The Republicans put up a slate of “Big Lie” candidates at the top of the ticket in an important swing state last night, which seems pretty important.Bovard: I would dispute the notion that Arizona represented “a slate of ‘Big Lie’ candidates.”Miller: Well, Lake has long brought up fraud claims about the 2020 election. Rare potential evidence of the party bucking Trump could come from the Third Congressional District in Washington, benefited by a “jungle” primary — candidates for an office, regardless of party, run on the same ballot, and the top two candidates square off in the general election. If the Trump-endorsed candidate loses, it seems a good endorsement for that set up.Bovard: But the Blake Masters campaign in particular represented a depth of issues that appealed to Arizona voters and could represent a new generation of Republicans.Douthat: Let’s get into that question a little bit. One of the questions hanging over the phenomenon of Trumper populism is whether it represents any kind of substantial issue-based change in what the G.O.P. stands for, or whether it’s just all about fealty to Trump.The Masters campaign and the Lake campaign seem to represent different answers to that question — Masters leveraging Trump’s support to try to push the party in a more nationalist or populist direction on trade, foreign policy, family policy, other issues, and Lake just promising to stop the next (alleged) steal. Or do we think that it’s all the same phenomenon underneath?Bovard: A very significant part of Trump’s appeal, what he perhaps taught the G.O.P., was that he spoke for voters who stood outside of party orthodoxy on a number of issues. And that’s where Masters tried to distinguish himself. He had a provocative campaign message early in his campaign: American families should be able to survive on a single income. That presents all kinds of challenges to standard Republican economic policy, how we think about family policy and how the two fit together. He also seems to be fearless in the culture wars, something else that Republicans are anxious to see.So this constant distilling into the “Big Lie” overlooks something key: A sea change is slowly happening on the right as it relates to policy expectations.Miller: But you know who distilled the Masters campaign into the “Big Lie”? Blake Masters. One of his ads begins, “I think Trump won in 2020.” This is an insane view, and I assume none of us think Masters really believes it. So fealty to Trump’s delusions is the opening ante here. Had Masters run a campaign about his niche, Peter Thiel-influenced issue obsessions but said Trump lost and he was harming Republican voters by continuing to delude them about our democracy, he would’ve lost like Rusty Bowers did.I do think Masters has some differentiated policy ideas that are probably, not certainly, reflective of where the G.O.P. is headed, but that wasn’t the main thing here.Douthat: So Tim, speaking for the “it’s Trump fealty all the way down” camp, what separates the Arizona results from the very different recent results in Georgia, where Trump fealty was insufficient to defeat either Brian Kemp or even Brad Raffensperger?Miller: Two things: First, with Kemp, governing actually matters. With incumbents, primaries for governor can be somewhat different because of that. Kemp was Ron DeSantis-esque without the attention in his handling of Covid. (This does not extend all the way to full anti-Trump or Trump-skeptical governors like Larry Hogan of Maryland or Charlie Baker of Massachusetts — Kemp almost never said an ill word about Trump.)Second, the type of electorate matters. Republican voters actually bucked Trump in another state, my home state, Colorado. What do Georgia and Colorado have in common? Suburban sprawl around a major city that dominates the state and a young, college-educated population.Douthat: Does that sound right to you, Rachel? And is there anything we aren’t seeing about a candidate like Lake that makes her more than just a stalking horse for Trump’s own obsessions?Bovard: Tim is right in the sense that there is always nuance when it comes to state elections. That’s why I also don’t see the Washington State primary race as a definitive rejection of Trump, as Tim alluded to earlier. Lake is, as a candidate, bombastic on the election issue.Miller: “Bombastic” is quite the euphemism for completely insane. Deliberate lies. The same ones that led to the storming of the Capitol.Bovard: Well, I don’t see that as determining how she governs. She’s got an entire state to manage, if she wins, and there are major issues she’ll have to manage that Trump also spoke to: the border, primarily.By the way, I regularly meet with Democrats who still tell me the 2018 election was stolen, and Stacey Abrams is the rightful governor of Georgia, so I’m not as pearl clutchy about it, no.Miller: “Pearl clutchy” is quite a way to describe a lie that has infected tens of millions of people, resulted in multiple deaths and the imprisonment of some of Trump’s most loyal supporters. I thought the populists were supposed to care about these people, but I guess worrying about their lives being ruined is just a little “pearl clutching.”Bovard: I know we don’t want to relitigate the entirety of Jan. 6, so I’ll just say I do worry about people’s lives being ruined. And the Jan. 6 Select Committee has further entrenched the divide that exists over this.Douthat: I’m going to enforce a pivot here, while using my moderator’s power to stipulate that I think Trump’s stolen-election narrative has been more destructive than the left’s Abrams-won-Georgia narrative or the “Diebold stole Ohio” narrative in 2004.If Lake wins her primary, can she win the general-election race? Can Doug Mastriano win in Pennsylvania? To what extent are we watching a replay of certain Republican campaigns in 2010 — long before Trump, it’s worth noting — where the party threw away winnable seats by nominating perceived extremists?Bovard: A key for G.O.P. candidates going forward is to embrace both elements of the cultural and economic argument. For a long time in the party these were seen as mutually exclusive, and post-Trump, I don’t think they are anymore. Glenn Youngkin won in Virginia in part by embracing working-class economic issues — leaning into repeal of the grocery tax, for example — and then pushing hard against critical race theory. He didn’t surge on economics alone.Douthat: Right, but Youngkin also did not have to run a primary campaign so deeply entangled with Trump. There’s clearly a sweet spot for the G.O.P. to run as economic moderates or populists and anti-woke fighters right now, but can a figure like Lake manage that in a general election? We don’t even know yet if Masters or J.D. Vance, who both explicitly want to claim that space, can grab it after their efforts to earn Trump’s favor.Tim, can these candidates win?Miller: Of course they can win. Midterm elections have historically washed in candidates far more unlikely than nominees like Masters (and Lake, if she is the nominee) or Mastriano from tossup swing states. Lake in particular, with her history in local news, would probably have some appeal to voters who have a personal affinity for her outside the MAGA base. Mastriano might be a slightly tougher sell, given his brand, vibe and Oath Keeper energy.Bovard: It’s long been conventional wisdom that you tack to the right in primaries and then move more to the center in the general, so if Lake wins, she will have to find a message that appeals to as many voters as possible. She would have to present a broad spectrum of policy priorities. The G.O.P. as a voting bloc has changed. Its voters are actively iterating on all of this, so previous assumptions about what appeals to voters don’t hold up as well. I tend to think there’s a lane for Trump-endorsed candidates who lean into the Trump-style economics and key culture fights.Miller: I just want to say here that I do get pissed about the notion that it’s us, the Never Trumpers, who are obsessed with litigating Jan. 6. Pennsylvania is a critical state that now has a nominee for governor who won because of his fealty to this lie, could win the general election and could put his finger on the scale in 2024. The same may be true in another key state, Arizona. This is a red-level threat for our democracy.A lot of Republicans in Washington, D.C., want to sort of brush it away just like they brushed away the threat before Jan. 6, because it’s inconvenient.Douthat: Let me frame that D.C. Republican objection a different way: If this is a red-level threat for our democracy, why aren’t Democrats acting like it? Why did Democratic Party money enter so many of these races on behalf of the more extreme, stop-the-steal Republican? For example, given the closeness of the race, that sort of tactic quite possibly helped defeat Meijer in Michigan.Miller: Give me a break. The ads from the left trying to tilt the races were stupid and frankly unpatriotic. I have spoken out about this before. But it’s not the Democrats who are electing these insane people. Were the Democrats responsible for Mark Finchem? Mehmet Oz? Herschel Walker? Mastriano won by over 20 points. This is what Republican voters want.Also, advertising is a two-way street. If all these self-righteous Republicans were so angry about the ads designed to promote John Gibbs, they could’ve run pro-Meijer ads! Where was Kevin McCarthy defending his member? He was in Florida shining Mr. Trump’s shoes.Douthat: Rachel, I watched that Masters ad that Tim mentioned and listened to his rhetoric around the 2020 election, and it seemed like he was trying to finesse things, make an argument that the 2020 election somehow wasn’t fair in the way it was administered and covered by the press without going the Sidney Powell route to pure conspiracism.But let’s take Masters’s spirit of generalized mistrust and reverse its direction: If you were an Arizona Democrat, why would you trust a Governor Lake or a Secretary of State Mark Finchem to fairly administer the 2024 election?Bovard: Honestly, the thing that concerns me most is that there is zero trust at all on elections at this moment. If I’m a Democrat, I don’t trust the Republicans, and vice versa. Part of that lack of trust is that we aren’t even allowed to question elections anymore — as Masters did, to your point, without going full conspiracy.We regain trust by actually allowing questions and full transparency. This is one of the things that worries me about our political system. Without any kind of institutional trust, or trust of one another, there’s a breakdown.Miller: This is preposterous. Arizona had several reviews of their election. The people lying about the election are the problem.Douthat: Last questions: What do you think are the implications of the big pro-life defeat in the Kansas abortion referendum, for either abortion policy or the November elections?Bovard: It shows two headwinds that the pro-life movement is up against. First is money. Reporting shows that pro-abortion advocates spent millions against the amendment, and Democrats in many key races across the country are outpacing Republicans in fund-raising. Second, it reflects the confusion that exists around this issue post-Roe. The question presented to Kansas voters was a microcosm of the general question in Roe: Should abortion be removed from the state Constitution and be put in the hands of democratically elected officials? Yet it was sometimes presented as a binary choice between a ban or no ban. (This early headline from Politico is an example: “Kansas voters block effort to ban abortion in state constitutional amendment vote.”)But I don’t think it moves the needle on the midterms.Miller: I view it slightly differently. I think most voters are in a big middle that Republicans could even use to their advantage if they didn’t run to the extremes. Voters do not want blanket abortion bans or anything that can be construed as such. Something that moved the status quo significantly to the pro-life right but still maintained exceptions and abortion up to a certain, reasonable point in pregnancy would be politically palatable.So this will only be an effective issue for Democrats in turnout and in places where Republicans let them make it an issue by going too far to the extreme.Douthat: Finally, a different short-answer question for you both. Rachel, say Masters and Vance are both in the Senate in 2023 as spokesmen for this new culturally conservative economic populism you favor. What’s the first bill they co-sponsor?Bovard: I’d say a large tax on university endowments.Douthat: Tim, adding the evidence of last night to the narrative, can Ron DeSantis (or anyone else, but let’s be honest, there isn’t anyone else) beat Trump in a Republican primary in 2024?Miller: Sad to end with a wishy-washy pundit answer but … maybe! Trump seems to have a plurality right now within the party on 2024, and many Republicans have an affinity for him. So if it were Mike Pence, Chris Christie or Liz Cheney, they would have no chance.Could DeSantis thread a needle and present himself as a more electable Trump? Some of the focus groups The Bulwark does makes it seem like that’s possible. But will he withstand the bright lights and be able to pull it off? Will Trump be indicted? A lot of known unknowns. I’d put DeSantis as an underdog, but it’s not impossible that he could pull it off.Douthat: There is absolutely no shame in the wishy-washy pundit game. Thanks so much to you both for joining me.Ross Douthat is a Times Opinion columnist. Rachel Bovard is the policy director at the Conservative Partnership Institute and a tech columnist at The Federalist. Tim Miller, a writer at The Bulwark, is the author of “Why We Did It: A Travelogue From the Republican Road to Hell.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Kansas’s vote to protect abortion rights upends US midterm elections – as it happened

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      Kansas is an unlikely place for a triumph of abortion rights.Starting in the 1990s, abortion providers in the state were repeated targets of violence, and in 2009, physician George Tiller was assassinated in Wichita. The state is a reliable GOP vote in presidential elections, and mostly sends Republicans to represent it in the Senate and House of Representatives – all of whom currently oppose abortion.But as last night’s vote to keep abortion protections in the constitutions shows, its residents don’t necessarily share their views. Around 59 percent of voters rejected a measure to change the constitution to allow the procedure to be cracked down on – about matching the 58 percent of Americans Gallup found did not want Roe v. Wade overturned.Whether red or blue, many states appear to share this dynamic. The Public Religion Research Institute says only in 10 states do majorities of voters want to make abortion illegal in all or most cases. Nationally, only 40 percent of people would support doing that.Washington spent today digesting the results of primary elections across the country, in which Kansas voted to protect abortion rights while Trump-aligned candidates triumphed in Arizona and elsewhere. Here’s a recap of what happened today:
      Indiana congresswoman Jackie Walorski was among four people killed in a car accident in the state.
      The defamation trial of conspiracy theorist Alex Jones took a dramatic turn when his cellphone data was accidentally shared with attorneys for the plaintiffs in the case, drawing the attention of the January 6 committee.
      A poll from Monmouth University showed Democrats have taken a narrow lead when it comes to control of Congress, while Biden’s approval rating plunge may have halted.
      Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell called for the chamber to approve Sweden and Finland’s entry to Nato, which it is expected to do later today.
      House speaker Nancy Pelosi concluded her visit to Taiwan with a reaffirmation that US leaders would stand up for the island, particularly against China.
      New York Democrat Carolyn Maloney had to walk back a comment suggesting Biden wouldn’t stand for a second term.
      The president, meanwhile, still has Covid-19, but he plans to sign a measure to boost semiconductor production next week in an outdoor ceremony.
      Jackie Walorski, a Republican House representative from Indiana, was among four people killed in a car accident while traveling in the state, WSBT reports:#BREAKING: U.S. Congresswoman Jackie Walorski (R-Indiana) has been killed in a crash that happened at 12:32 P.M. in Elkhart County on S.R. 19 south of S.R. 119. pic.twitter.com/SbvhWlHgxL— Erica Finke WSBT (@EricaFinkeTV) August 3, 2022
      A northbound passenger car traveled left of center and collided head on with a southbound vehicle.Walorski, Zachary Potts with the St. Joseph County Republican Party, and Walorski’s comm. director Emma Thompson all passed away.— Erica Finke WSBT (@EricaFinkeTV) August 3, 2022
      The northbound vehicle driver, Edith Schmucker, died as well. The investigation is continuing at this time.#RIP to everyone involved in this horrifying crash.— Erica Finke WSBT (@EricaFinkeTV) August 3, 2022
      A federal grand jury investigating the January 6 attack has subpoenaed former White House counsel Pat Cipollone and his deputy Patrick Philbin, according to media reports.Both men were present in the White House during the time of the insurrection, and Cipollone has provided testimony to the House committee investigating the attack, which was a major part of its most recent hearing and showed the lawyer trying to get Donald Trump to call off his supporters as they assaulted the Capitol.CNN first reported Philbin’s subpoena today, while ABC News broke the story of Cipollone’s subpoena yesterday.The January 6 committee plans to subpoena phone data from Alex Jones that was accidentally revealed in a defamation case against him, Rolling Stone reports.Citing two sources, the magazine said investigators for the House committee investigating the attack were planning to take advantage of the the surprise development today in Jones’ trial, where it was revealed his lawyer had accidentally shared a copy of Jones’ phone data with attorneys for the parents of a child killed at Sandy Hook elementary school, who are suing Jones.According to Rolling Stone, “It’s unclear what, specifically, the committee will be looking for in Jones’ communications but attorneys for the Sandy Hook plaintiffs have accused the InfoWars host of intentionally withholding relevant communications about the Sandy Hook shooting and lying about having conducted a search for them.”Saying that Republicans “don’t have a clue about the power of American women”, Joe Biden cheered Kansas voters’ rejection of a ballot initiative that would have allowed lawmakers to ban abortion.He made the comments while appearing virtually at a meeting where he signed an executive order that could allow Medicaid, the government health plan for poor and disabled Americans, to cover the travel costs of people who must cross state lines to seek an abortion.“[Republicans] don’t have a clue about the power of American women. Last night in Kansas they found out.”— President Biden celebrates Kansas’ defeat of a ballot initiative that would have repealed the state’s right to abortion pic.twitter.com/AsGe5t8FpR— The Recount (@therecount) August 3, 2022
      As the January 6 committee has explored the events surrounding the attack on the Capitol, one name has come up repeatedly: Rudy Giuliani. The former New York City mayor and lawyer for Donald Trump has been involved in that White House’s many scandals, but the New York Times reports today that one inquiry appears to be reaching a conclusion.Federal investigators are unlikely to file charges against Giuliani after looking into whether he illegally lobbied for officials from Ukraine who had offered damaging information about Joe Biden. Here’s more from the Times’ report:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} While prosecutors had enough evidence last year to persuade a judge to order the seizure of Mr. Giuliani’s electronic devices, they did not uncover a smoking gun in the records, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a federal investigation.
      The prosecutors have not closed the investigation, and if new evidence were to emerge, they could still pursue Mr. Giuliani. But in a telling sign that the inquiry is close to wrapping up without an indictment, investigators recently returned the electronic devices to Mr. Giuliani, the people said. Mr. Giuliani also met with prosecutors and agents in February and answered their questions, a signal that his lawyers were confident he would not be charged.This is unlikely to be the last time Giuliani hears from prosecutors, both at the federal or state level. In addition to the January 6 inquiry, he has been subpoenaed to appear before a special grand jury in Georgia that is investigating Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election result in that state.Giuliani ordered to go before grand jury in Trump election meddling caseRead moreThere was an unusual and dramatic turn in the defamation trial of Alex Jones this afternoon, when it was revealed that his attorney accidentally sent a copy of the data from Jones’ phone to a lawyer for the Sandy Hook parents who are suing him.The revelations seem to open up the possibility that Jones could have perjured himself during his testimony. Here’s the account of what happened from Ben Collins of NBC News:Wow. Sandy Hook parents’ lawyer is revealing that Alex Jones’ lawyers sent him the contents of Jones’ phone BY MISTAKE.”12 days ago, your attorneys messed up and sent me a digital copy of every text” Jones has sent for years.”You know what perjury is?” the lawyer asks.— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) August 3, 2022
      Sandy Hook parents’ lawyer is now asking Jones about the times he has emailed about Sandy Hook over the last several years, despite testifying under oath he couldn’t find any emails about Sandy Hook. There are apparently a lot of them. One is on a screen right now.— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) August 3, 2022
      Even Jones is stunned by the fact Sandy Hook parents seem to have his emails. Jones just called it their lawyers’ “Perry Mason moment.” It’s shocking.— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) August 3, 2022
      Judge instructing the jury on the entire contents of Alex Jones’ phone, which was accidentally handed over from Jones’ lawyers to the Sandy Hook parents’ lawyers:”What we do know is that it was not properly turned over when it should have been.”— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) August 3, 2022
      These texts and emails are FINALLY revealing financials behind Infowars.Some days in 2018, InfoWars was making $800,000 a day.”Well after your deplatforming, your numbers keep getting better,” Sandy Hook parents’ lawyer says.If they keep that up, that’s ~$300 mill. a year.— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) August 3, 2022
      Per the Associated Press, closing arguments in the case are expected to begin today.The defamation trial of conspiracy theorist Alex Jones appears to be nearing a conclusion in Texas. The Associated Press reports Jones acknowledged in court that the Sandy Hook school shooting happened, after years in which he insisted it was a hoax:The conspiracy theorist Alex Jones said on Wednesday he now understands it was irresponsible to declare the Sandy Hook school shooting a hoax, and now believes it was “100% real”.He was speaking in his own defamation trial, a day after the parents of a six-year-old boy killed in the 2012 attack testified about suffering, death threats and harassment they have endured because of what Jones has trumpeted on his media platforms.“It was … especially since I’ve met the parents. It’s 100% real,” Jones said, at the trial that will determine how much he owes for defaming the parents of Jesse Lewis, one of 20 children and six adults killed at the school in Newtown, Connecticut.‘It’s 100% real’: Alex Jones admits in court Sandy Hook shooting not a hoaxRead moreMitch McConnell, the Republican Senate minority leader, has said Finland and Sweden’s applications for membership of Nato – motivated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – are “a slam dunk for national security that deserves unanimous bipartisan support”.McConnell made the remarks on the Senate floor today, before a vote scheduled later. The short version of what he said, provided by his office, is as follows:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Today, the Senate will approve ratification protocols to welcome Finland and Sweden as the two newest members of Nato … There is just no question that admitting these robust democratic countries with modern economies and capable, interoperable militaries will only strengthen the most successful military alliance in human history … This is a slam dunk for national security that deserves unanimous bipartisan support.Approval is expected, though one prominent (and notably sprightly) Republican has said he will vote no. In an op ed last month, Josh Hawley of Missouri said: “Finland and Sweden want to join the Atlantic Alliance to head off further Russian aggression in Europe. That is entirely understandable given their location and security needs. “But America’s greatest foreign adversary doesn’t loom over Europe. It looms in Asia. I am talking of course about the People’s Republic of China. And when it comes to Chinese imperialism, the American people should know the truth: the United States is not ready to resist it. Expanding American security commitments in Europe now would only make that problem worse – and America, less safe.” Joe Manchin, the man in the middle of most things in Washington these days, spoke to the Senate rules committee this morning about reforming the Electoral Count Act, the creaky old mechanism which just about stood up to Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn his defeat in 2020.Reform to the act has emerged as a rare subject of bipartisan interest on Capitol Hill – and Manchin, being the only Democrat in statewide office in otherwise deep Republican red West Virginia, is generally a fan of bipartisan things.He said: “As we saw on 6 January 2021, a lot of the ‘fixes’ established by the original Electoral Count Act are not merely outdated but actually serve as the very mechanisms that bad actors have zeroed in on as a way to potentially invalidate presidential election results.“As I am sure you will hear from the panel of distinguished experts who will testify before you today – the time to reform the ECA is long overdue. The time for Congress to act is now.“To that end, I am proud of the bipartisan bill introduced by [the Republican] Senator [Susan] Collins [of Maine], myself, and my colleagues last month: The Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act.”Manchin said the new act would “unambiguously clarifie that the vice-president is prohibited from interfering with the electoral votes; raise the objection [to electoral results] threshold from a single representative and a single senator to 20% of the members of both the House of Representatives and the Senate; and set a hard deadline for state governors to certify … electoral results – and if they fail to do so or submit a slate that does not match with the electoral results from the state, it creates an expedited judicial process to resolve”.This week, the spotlight once again will be on Democratic senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema (dubbed “Manchinema” by the Washington press corps when the two blocked much of Joe Biden’s agenda).Which is exactly where both of these politicians want it.It’s the Democrats’ last chance for a large package – Manchin agreed last week to $790bn – on the climate and healthcare, financed by a tax increase on the rich and big corporations. But will Sinema go along?It’s been joked that the word “politics” is derived from the Latin “poli”, meaning “many”, and “ticks”, meaning small blood-sucking insects. I don’t hold such a cynical view. But I do know from 50 years’ experience in and around Washington that most of the people who serve in our nation’s capital have very, very large – shall we say? – egos.Full column:Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema act out of ego, not principle | Robert ReichRead moreCould things be looking up for Democrats? Between the defeat of an anti-abortion ballot measure in Kansas and some positive polling data, president Joe Biden’s party has seen signs pulling out of the slump it fell into recently – but there’s still months to go before the November midterms.Here’s a look back at what has happened so far today:
      House speaker Nancy Pelosi concluded her visit to Taiwan with a reaffirmation that US leaders would stand up for the island, particularly against China.
      New York Democrat Carolyn Maloney had to walk back a comment suggesting Biden wouldn’t stand for a second term.
      The president, meanwhile, still has Covid-19, but he plans to sign a measure to boost semiconductor production next week in an outdoor ceremony.
      The supreme court has announced a new argument calendar for its cases in the fall, where the conservative majority could again move to upend laws across the United States.New #SCOTUS argument calendar. Affirmative action cases to be heard Oct. 31. pic.twitter.com/hgyVlENvRj— Adam Liptak (@adamliptak) August 3, 2022
      Of note is the 31 October argument of two cases against Harvard University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, in which the court could bar the usage of race as a factor in college admissions.Supreme court could strike blow against affirmative action in Harvard case rulingRead moreBiden remains positive for Covid-19 but is otherwise feeling well, the White House doctor said in an update on the president’s health.“The President continues to feel well,” Kevin O’Connor wrote, noting Biden “remains fever-free and in good spirits” and had completed “a light workout” today.Biden contracted the virus last month and appeared to have recovered, testing negative last week. But over the weekend, he tested positive again.Biden tests positive for Covid only days after testing negativeRead moreNew York Democratic House representative Carolyn Maloney is doing a bit of clean-up this morning after suggesting in a debate last night that president Biden won’t run for re-election.“I don’t believe he’s running for reelection,” Maloney said during the debate, according to CNN. The lawmaker appeared to be saying the quiet part out loud when it comes to Biden’s viability as a candidate in 2024, given his age (he’ll be 81 when the election is held) and dismal approval ratings.In a series of tweets Wednesday, Maloney tried to clear the matter up:I will absolutely support President Biden, if he decides to run for re-election. Biden’s leadership securing historic investments for healthcare, climate & economic justice prove once again why he is the strong and effective leader we need right now. 🧵— Carolyn B. Maloney (@CarolynBMaloney) August 3, 2022
      I urge all Democrats to stay united & focused on working towards winning the midterms. Right now, I am concentrating on the upcoming Democratic primary on August 23rd & the issues that matter to the voters of #NY12. Request your absentee ballot by Monday, August 8th— Carolyn B. Maloney (@CarolynBMaloney) August 3, 2022
      Maloney represents a district that encompasses part of New York City, but after redistricting, she’s vying to keep her seat against congressman Jerry Nadler, a fellow Democrat. More

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      ‘This is huge’: Democrats hail abortion rights victory in Kansas

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      ‘This is huge’: Democrats hail abortion rights victory in KansasDemocrats celebrated the Kansas vote as a testament to the desire for abortion rights nationwide, even in Republican-held states01:01Democrats including Joe Biden hailed the outcome of an abortion rights ballot question in Kansas, after a majority voted to protect the right in the state constitution.‘We could feel it’: Kansans celebrate upset abortion rights victoryRead moreIn a statement, the president said: “Voters in Kansas turned out in record numbers to reject extreme efforts to amend the state constitution to take away a woman’s right to choose and open the door for a statewide ban.“This vote makes clear what we know: the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion and should have the right to make their own healthcare decisions.”The Kansas vote was the first time abortion rights had been on the ballot since the conservative-dominated supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, the 1973 ruling which guaranteed the right, in June.A yes vote would have allowed the conservative Kansas legislature to restrict abortion or ban it completely.Other senior Democrats celebrated the Kansas vote as a testament to the desire for abortion rights nationwide, even in Republican-held states.The Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren tweeted: “This is huge: abortion rights were on the ballot for the first time since Roe, and the people of Kansas voted to preserve access. I’m grateful down to my toes for everyone who helped stop this dangerous ballot measure in its tracks.”The chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Jaime Harrison, tweeted a congratulatory message – but did not mention the abortion referendum.“While the GOP is pushing their ultra-MAGA agenda, Dems are nominating candidates who will work to cut costs and protect our freedoms,” he wrote.To many Democrats and analysts, the Kansas vote suggested that an emphasis on abortion rights could pave the way to success in the November midterms.The referendum question brought out a surge of new voters, with more than 800,000 people turning out, up on the 470,000 who participated in the 2018 gubernatorial primary, Insider reported.Republicans who celebrated the supreme court ruling on abortion rights have since rushed to pass state abortion bans.But the Kansas vote presents an unexpected challenge for Republicans seeking to galvanize the issue for support in November. Even in more conservative states, voters largely support abortion rights.“Kansans bluntly rejected anti-abortion politicians’ attempts at creating a reproductive police state,” Kimberly Inez McGuire, executive director of Unite for Reproductive & Gender Equity, told the Associated Press.“Today’s vote was a powerful rebuke and a promise of the mounting resistance.”TopicsKansasAbortionDemocratsUS politicsnewsReuse this content More