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      ‘Extremists didn’t make it’: why Republicans flopped in once-red Arizona

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      Analysis‘Extremists didn’t make it’: why Republicans flopped in once-red ArizonaMaanvi SinghThe state rejected hardline rhetoric amid historic turnout by young and Latino voters Arizonans rejected extremists.As their new governor, voters chose Katie Hobbs, the Democrat who oversaw the 2020 election, over Kari Lake, the extremist Trump-endorsed election denier who campaigned alongside white supremacists. They re-elected the moderate Democrat Mark Kelly to the Senate over the far-right Blake Masters, who equated abortion to “genocide” and espouses the great replacement theory. For secretary of state, voters chose Adrian Fontes, the former election official who vowed to protect voting rights, over Mark Finchem, a self-identified member of the Oath Keepers.The results defied many polls and political pundits, but were in line with broader political shifts in the formerly deep-red Copper state. Early estimates suggest that the state saw historic turnout among young voters and Latino voters that grassroots organisations in the state have been working for a decade to register and mobilise.“Our community voted like their survival depended on it,” said Alejandra Gomez, co-director of the progressive group Lucha. “Because it did.”Lucha canvassers knocked on more than 450,000 doors, including in rural counties. “We were confident that we would see some gains for Democrats,” she said. But she didn’t expect Democrats and progressives would see some of their best results in decades. Voters not only rejected rightwing election deniers, they also rejected a ballot measure – pushed by state Republicans – that would have imposed onerous new voter identification requirements and made it harder for tribal and student voters to cast ballots.Just over a decade after Arizona passed one of the more stringent anti-immigrant measures, which encouraged police to stop anyone they thought looked undocumented, voters approved a measure allowing undocumented students access to state-funded financial aid for college.“I’m extremely relieved,’’ said Carla Roberts, 56, who worked with grassroots groups to canvass and register voters ahead of the election. “I’m just so relieved that these extreme candidates didn’t make it.”Roberts, a mother to a trans daughter who used to vote Republican, turned away from the party as state Republicans began increasingly pushing anti-trans and anti-LGBTQ legislation. Like many moderate Republican and independent voters in the state, she voted for candidates from both parties in the past. The party’s far-right shift in recent years prompted her to change her registration.Her daughter, Evelyn Roberts, 18, who voted for the first time this year, said she hoped the newly re-elected Democrats would double down on protecting voting rights, trans rights and civil rights overall.Why the Democrats’ biggest wins of the midterms weren’t in Washington DCRead moreEvelyn, who didn’t yet have a driver’s licence or state ID, and was in the process of changing her name on various government forms, was only able to vote for federal offices due to Arizona’s longstanding voter ID requirements to vote in state elections. This year, the legislature passed a law attempting to expand such requirements to presidential elections.“We need to remove the fear being created around voting,” she said.More than a third of voters in Arizona are registered Republicans, nearly a third are Democrats and a third are independent. But until recently, Republican presidential nominees tended to win the popular vote in Arizona. Donald Trump got about 49% of the state’s support in 2016, but four years later he was the first Republican presidential candidate to lose the state in 24 years, allowing Joe Biden to win the presidency.This year, Trump’s endorsed candidates proved too extreme to win over voters in a state where maverick independence has long been valued over party loyalty. “Arizonans chose solving our problems over conspiracy theories,” Hobbs said at a victory rally.Extremism and hardline anti-immigrant and racist rhetoric may have ultimately alienated conservative and independent Latino voters who have played increasingly decisive roles in recent elections.“I think it would be very premature and even a little bit reckless for Democrats to think that they have a mandate now just because they won some very key races statewide against very extreme candidates,” said Joseph Garcia, the executive director of Chicanos Por La Causa Action Fund, a non-partisan group that invested $10m in voter outreach before the primaries and midterms this year. “Had there been more moderate Republicans running in these races, it might have been a different outcome.”Many Latino voters in the state – including immigrant voters as well as young second-, third- and fourth-generation Mexican Americans – lack strong ties to either big party, according to pre-midterm polling by EquisLabs.But ultimately Latino voters provided a slim margin of victory for Democrats in Arizona’s Senate race, according to an analysis by UnidosUS, which conducted election day polling in the state.“Overall, the election was not as good as Republicans expected and not as bad as Democrats had expected,” said Clarissa Martinez, the deputy vice-president of UnidosUS. “But certainly it was a good night for the Hispanic community in the sense that they reaffirmed their critical role in influencing the political landscape.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022ArizonaUS politicsanalysisReuse this content More

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      Katie Hobbs defeats election denier Kari Lake in Arizona governor race

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      Katie Hobbs defeats election denier Kari Lake in Arizona governor raceVictory for Democrat over Trump-endorsed opponent is seen as a boost to voting rights The Democratic candidate for governor in Arizona, Katie Hobbs, has defeated her far-right, Trump-endorsed opponent, staving off a major threat to voting rights in the state.Hobbs, who is Arizona’s outgoing secretary of state, defeated Kari Lake, a former TV anchor who denies the 2020 election results. Lake has refused to say if she would accept defeat this time around but tweeted “Arizonans know BS when they see it” after Monday’s result emerged. The Associated Press projected Hobbs as the winner on Monday evening with more than 95% of votes reported.Trump for 2024 would be ‘bad mistake’, Republican says as blame game deepens Read moreHobbs celebrated her win on Twitter with the message: “Democracy is worth the wait.”Hobbs rose to prominence as a staunch defender of the legitimacy of the last election and warned that Lake would be an agent of chaos. Lake’s loss adds further evidence that Trump is weighing down his allies in a crucial battleground state as the former president gears up for an announcement of a 2024 presidential run.The two candidates had been virtually tied in polls, and Hobbs’s refusal to debate Lake and her lukewarm performance in televised appearances had worried supporters in the weeks ahead of the election.Hobbs gained support and national recognition as Arizona’s top election official, defending the state’s results against a frenzy of disinformation and repeated efforts by Republicans to challenge and undermine Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, even as she became the target of death threats.Voting rights advocates are breathing a sigh of relief, as Hobbs staves off further damage to Arizona’s election systems. Republican lawmakers in the state introduced at least 81 bills seeking to restrict voting access in 2021 and 2022.Had she won, Lake had vowed to further dismantle voting norms in the state, arguing winners should be declared on election night – a rare occurrence in Arizona, where mail-in votes can take days to count – while also forgoing ballot counting machines in favor of slower and less accurate hand counts.And in recent months, rightwing activists had aggressively operated in the state. Hobbs referred several complaints of voter intimidation to law enforcement and the US justice department. And members of the conspiracy theorist group Clean Elections USA had been photographing and intimidating election workers and voters outside the Maricopa county election headquarters in Phoenix.Hobbs’s victory appears to be yet another sign that the Copper State, once a conservative bastion, has transformed into a political battleground. Demographic changes and a decade of activism by grassroots, progressive groups have helped amplify the voices of young and Latino voters, who have been helping deliver key victories for Democratic candidates.03:20Her win also marks a midterm coup for the Democratic party, who defied expectations of a “red wave” to hold onto their Senate majority, although Republicans are favored to win a majority in the US House of Representatives. Abortion rights may have also been a motivator for many voters. In a recent poll, more than 90% of Arizona voters opposed a total ban on abortion. After Arizona revived a pre-statehood ban on abortions, Hobbs made the issue central to her campaign, speaking in personal terms about the impact such a ban would have on women and families.Lake, meanwhile, ran on a deeply conservative platform, supporting a total ban on abortions and vowing to declare an “invasion” at the southern border. A staunch supporter of Trump, she had also threatened to only accept the election results if she won.Before entering politics, Hobbs was a social worker who worked with homeless youth and an executive with a large domestic violence shelter in the Phoenix area. She was elected to the state legislature in 2010, serving one term in the House and three terms in the Senate, rising to minority leader.Hobbs eked out a narrow win in 2018 as secretary of state and was thrust into the center of a political storm as Arizona became the centerpiece of the efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn the results of the 2020 election. She appeared constantly on cable news defending the integrity of the vote count.The attention allowed her to raise millions of dollars, and her profile, before going on to comfortably win her primary.She will succeed Republican governor Doug Ducey, who was prohibited by term limit laws from running again. She’s the first Democrat to be elected governor in Arizona since Janet Napolitano in 2006.The Associated Press contributed reportingTopicsUS midterm elections 2022ArizonaUS politicsRepublicansDemocratsnewsReuse this content More