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      A Mystery Repeats: Harris Up 4 in Pennsylvania, and Trump Up 6 in Arizona

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      Being uncertain about our earlier poll results but finding almost the same numbers the next time around.A recent rally for Kamala Harris in Pittsburgh. Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesAt the end of our last wave of post-debate battleground polls, there were two state poll results that didn’t seem to fit the rest.One was Pennsylvania: Kamala Harris led by four percentage points, making it her best result in the battlegrounds. It was our only state poll conducted immediately after the debate, when her supporters might have been especially excited to respond to a poll.The other was Arizona: Donald J. Trump led by five points, making it his best result among the battlegrounds. Even stranger, it was a huge swing from our previous poll of the state, which Vice President Harris had led by five points.In both cases, it seemed possible that another New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll would yield a significantly different result. With that in mind, we decided to take an additional measure of Arizona and Pennsylvania before our final polls at the end of the month.The result? Essentially the same as our prior polls.Ms. Harris leads by four points in Pennsylvania, just as she did immediately after the final debate.Mr. Trump leads by six points in Arizona, about the same as the five-point lead he held three weeks ago.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      This Diné leader is using horses to bring ‘the greatest Native turnout ever’ to the polls

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      In Diné, or Navajo, culture, the horse symbolizes strength and resilience, as well as a connection to the earth. Cowboy culture is so relevant to Native communities, that horseback trail rides are used to draw awareness to issues within the community including suicide prevention, and alcohol and drug use, said Allie Young, a 34-year-old Diné grassroots organizer. This fall, Young has harnessed the trail ride to engage Diné voters for the presidential election: her group’s voter-registration events will culminate with 100 Indigenous voters riding on horseback to a polling station in Arizona on election day.“When one mounts a horse and is in rhythm with the horse, that reconnection happens,” Young, founder of the Indigenous-led civic engagement program Protect the Sacred, told the Guardian. “So when we’re connected with the horse, we’re then reconnected to Mother Earth and reminded of our cultural values and what we’re fighting for, what we’re protecting.”Native American turnout is especially critical in the upcoming election, when tribal sovereignty could be threatened by the conservative blueprint Project 2025, which states that fossil fuel drilling should be facilitated on tribal lands. Political representation that brings needed resources into Native communities is particularly important on tribal lands, where 75% of roads remain unpaved. In part due to Young’s advocacy, Native American voters are credited with flipping the historically red state of Arizona to Democrat during the 2020 election. That year, up to 90% of the roughly 67,000 eligible voters in the Navajo Nation voted for Joe Biden, according to data.Young said she hopes that the success of the Ride to the Polls campaign in 2020 and 2022 will encourage “the greatest Native turnout ever” in the upcoming election. This year, the campaign has extended its reach with events such as skateboarding and bull-riding competitions, heavy metal and country music concerts.View image in fullscreen“We’re trying to communicate to our community that we need to protect our tribal sovereignty,” said Young, “and with that, protect our sacred sites, protect our lands, our cultures, our languages, our traditions.”Young launched the Ride to the Polls campaign in 2020 in response to the rapid spread of Covid-19 infections in the Navajo Nation, where some counties saw the highest death rates per capita in the nation. She wanted to ensure that her community filled out the US census to receive the funding they deserved and to elect politicians who prioritize the concerns of Native communities.“Our nation and many tribal nations across the country were devastated by the onset of Covid-19 because our system is being chronically underfunded,” said Young, “which revealed to the rest of the world what we already know: that the government is not honoring our treaty, which says that we are to receive good healthcare and education.” She began creating culturally relevant initiatives so that young Diné citizens who felt disenfranchised would see voting as a tool to “rebuild our power as a community”.The campaign’s goal in 2024 is to register 1,500 new voters during their in-person initiatives and more than 5,000 voters through online efforts. So far, they have registered 200 new voters and checked or updated the registrations of about 400 people.On 12 October, the actor Mark Ruffalo will join Ride to the Polls to help mobilize Native voters and to mark the 100th anniversary of Native Americans being granted the right to vote. Ruffalo and Indigenous voters wearing traditional clothing will walk three miles to vote early at a community ballot drop box in Fort Defiance, Arizona – the site where the forced removal called the Long Walk of the Navajo began in 1863.View image in fullscreen“Indigenous people have only been able to fight for their future at the ballot box for 76 years,” Ruffalo said in a statement. “Now we’re seeing a massive movement of young Indigenous folk exercise their power at the polls … I hope their resilience will inspire other young Indigenous folks from all communities to do the same.”While US citizenship was granted to most Native Americans under the Indian Citizenship Act of 1924, some state constitutions continued to block the voting rights of Native Americans who lived among their nations. In Arizona, pollsters required English literacy tests to cast a ballot. All Native Americans were finally granted the right to vote under the federal voting rights act of 1965.Still, barriers have remained that make it difficult for Diné to register to vote and cast ballots, including a lack of residential addresses since many people on the Navajo Nation use post office boxes. It also can take up to an hour to drive to a polling location, said Young. And this summer, the US supreme court ruled that Arizona can enforce a state law requiring prospective voters to include proof of US citizenship in registration forms, which Young said was a “slap in the face to Native Americans, who are the first peoples of this land, to be asked to prove their citizenship”.To help address some of those hurdles, Protect the Sacred is partnering with the Indigenous-led voter-engagement non-profit Arizona Native Vote. Indigenous organizers register voters and help residents find their addresses by locating their houses on Google Maps. “A key talking point when we talk to voters is letting them know that voting and registering to vote should not be this hard,” Jaynie Parrish, executive director of Arizona Native Vote, said. “For example, the form itself – what will take five minutes or less from someone in Flagstaff or Phoenix or in a city that has a physical address or town, that’s not what happens here.”During a six-stop trail ride to register Diné citizens throughout the Navajo Nation in mid-September, Indigenous organizers discussed with voters the importance of casting ballots in every election. They served citizens stew and frybread while explaining to them that county elections can determine how local government operations are funded. Young said: “I believe that we started a movement around the power of the Native vote.” More

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      This Election Will Need More Heroes

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      True political courage — the principled stand, the elevation of country over party pressure, the willingness to sacrifice a career to protect the common good — has become painfully rare in a polarized world. It deserves to be celebrated and nurtured whenever it appears, especially in defense of fundamental American institutions like our election system. The sad truth, too, is the country will probably need a lot more of it in the coming months.In state after state, Republicans have systematically made it harder for citizens to vote, and harder for the election workers who count those votes to do so. They are challenging thousands of voter registrations in Democratic areas, forcing administrators to manually restore perfectly legitimate voters to the rolls. They are aggressively threatening election officials who defended the 2020 election against manipulation. They are trying to invalidate mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day, even if they meet the legal requirements of a postmark before the deadline. They are making it more difficult to certify election results, and even trying to change how states apportion their electors, in hopes of making it easier for Donald Trump to win or even help him overturn an election loss.Though many of these moves happened behind closed doors, this campaign is hardly secret. And last month, Mr. Trump directly threatened to prosecute and imprison election officials around the country who disagree with his lies.Against this kind of systematic assault on the institutions and processes that undergird American democracy, the single most important backstop are the public servants, elected and volunteer, who continue to do their jobs.Consider Mike McDonnell, a Republican state senator from Nebraska, who showed how it’s done when he announced last month that he would not bow to an intense, last-minute pressure campaign by his party’s national leaders, including former President Trump, to help slip an additional electoral vote into Mr. Trump’s column.Currently, Nebraska awards most of its electors by congressional district, and while most of the state is safely conservative, polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris poised to win the elector from the Second Congressional District, which includes the state’s biggest city, Omaha. In the razor-thin margins of the 2024 election, this could be the vote that determines the outcome. That was the intent of Republican lawmakers in Nebraska, who waited until it was too late for Democrats in Maine, which has a similar system, to change the state’s rules to prevent one congressional district from choosing a Republican elector.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Harris Says She Would Form Bipartisan Council of Advisers

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      As Vice President Kamala Harris has sought to stake out ground in the political center that might appeal to swing voters, she has campaigned with former Representative Liz Cheney, the Wyoming Republican, and pledged to appoint a Republican to her cabinet if elected. Ms. Harris added to that strategy while visiting the battleground state of Arizona on Friday, saying she would convene a bipartisan council of advisers on policy if she wins the White House.At a campaign event geared toward Republican supporters in Scottsdale, Ariz., Ms. Harris said the council would be an attempt to “put some structure” around policy discussions that reach across the aisle.“Wherever they come from, I love good ideas,” she said at the Grayhawk Golf Club in Scottsdale. “We have to have a healthy two-party system.”The bipartisan council proposal is the latest effort by the Harris campaign to court Republican voters disaffected with former President Donald J. Trump. It also dovetails with the vice president’s attempts to counter her image as a California liberal. She has sought to move away from some of the progressive positions she took during her 2020 presidential run.On Friday, Ms. Harris argued that the council was in the “best interest” of all Americans because of the constructive feedback it would inspire.Ms. Harris has secured high-profile endorsements from conservative Trump critics — including from more than 100 former G.O.P. officials. The campaign has a newsletter and holds events under the banner of Republicans for Harris.The vice president has also campaigned in areas Democrats do not traditionally visit. Last week, she held a campaign event in Ripon, Wis., the birthplace of the G.O.P. She stood with Ms. Cheney, a conservative Republican and the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, as Ms. Cheney declared that it was “our duty” to reject Mr. Trump and vote for Ms. Harris. More

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      Arizona Democrats Shut Down a Phoenix Campaign Office After Shootings

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      The Arizona Democratic Party shut down a campaign office in suburban Phoenix after it was struck by gunfire and a BB gun on three occasions over the past month, said a local official, Lauren Kuby, on Friday.Nobody was hurt in the shootings, but they raised concerns about the safety of campaign workers and volunteers in the thick of a bitterly fought election that has already seen assassination attempts against former President Donald J. Trump.Ms. Kuby, a Democratic candidate for the Arizona State Senate and former city council member in Tempe, said on Friday that people who had been working out of the office shifted to houses and other “undisclosed locations.” News of the office’s closure was first reported by The Arizona Republic.“We’re not giving up,” Ms. Kuby said in an interview. “People are determined not to be stopped.”Gunshots were fired through the front door of an office used by the Tempe Democratic National Committee in suburban Phoenix.Ray Stern/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK, via Imagn ImagesThe office in Tempe, which is home to Arizona State University, had been a bustling hub for gathering volunteers and starting voter-outreach efforts, Ms. Kuby said. The shootings left its windows scarred by bullet holes.The three shootings all happened between midnight and 1 a.m. local time when the office was empty, according to the Tempe Police Department. A BB gun was used in the first incident, on Sept. 16, and a firearm was used in the second and third shootings, on Sept. 23 and Oct. 6, the police said. The Tempe police said investigators were still working to determine what kind of gun was used. The police have not made any arrests or identified a motive. This week, the police identified a silver Toyota Highlander with unknown license plates as a “suspect vehicle.”The Arizona Democratic Party did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Friday. More

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      in US Politics

      Trial of Arizona officials who refused to certify 2022 election delayed until next year

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      The criminal trial of two rural Arizona county supervisors who initially refused to certify election results in 2022 will not occur before this year’s elections after it was again delayed.Tom Crosby and Peggy Judd, two of the three supervisors in the Republican-led Cochise county, face charges of conspiracy and interfering with an election officer, brought by the Democratic attorney general, Kris Mayes.The trial has been pushed back multiple times and is now set for 30 January 2025, the court docket shows. The delay was mutually agreed upon, the attorney general’s office said.Despite the county’s typically low profile, the trial is being watched nationally as elections experts anticipate a potential wave of local officials refusing to certify results if Trump loses. The red county, set on the US-Mexico border, has a population of about 125,000.Charges like those against Crosby and Judd should send a message to many of those who would consider taking similar actions, democracy advocates say.“The fact that two supervisors who failed to certify results on time in the past are facing criminal charges does serve as a deterrent to other officials who might be considering obstructing the certification process in Arizona this year,” said Travis Bruner, the Arizona state policy advocate at Protect Democracy. “And I think that deterrent exists, even though the trial isn’t going to occur before the election.”Cochise county became a hotbed for election denialism after the 2020 election, as did the rest of Arizona, because Trump lost the state in an upset for Republicans. Crosby and Judd first tried to conduct a full hand count of ballots in their county in the 2022 midterms, a move which was deemed illegal. The quest for a hand count included support from Republican state lawmakers.Crosby and Judd then refused to certify the election until a court ordered them to do so, and even then, Crosby still did not vote to approve it. These actions have added costs to county taxpayers and gripped local meetings for many months.In US elections, local elections officials oversee the counting of ballots, often referred to as the canvass. County supervisors, like those in Cochise, then sign off on those results in what’s known as a certification. Think of the supervisors in these instances as scorekeepers, Bruner said. The supervisor’s role is to acknowledge the count, not act as a referee. This function is mandatory, not discretionary, he said.In anticipation of potential certification battles after election day this year, pro-democracy groups have emphasized the illegality of such refusals and the role the courts play in enforcing laws on certification. Whether a wave of certification delays or refusals actually occurs depends in large part on who wins the election, and the degree of the pressure campaign that comes afterward.These efforts likely won’t hinder the ultimate election results because courts will step in to require certification, but they can cause delay, allowing for disinformation to swirl and and sow doubt in elections, Bruner said.“What we’re seeing in Arizona and across the country is really that conspiracy theorists and folks who want to subvert election results, if they don’t like the results, have targeted the certification process as a place to sort of place their doubt in elections and try to change the results of elections that they don’t like,” he said.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionA recent report by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington found that 35 local elected officials across eight states had previously refused to certify election results and could be in a position to do so again this year.Crosby and Judd are two of them. Supporters of the two had previously told them they would cover their legal expenses, and an anonymous donor paid an initial $10,000 legal retainer. Crosby has sought donations on a crowdfunding site to help cover his legal expenses, as has Judd, though she’s brought in less money. Judd has said promises of funding never came to fruition because she was “small beans”.Crosby and Judd have not made any indication that they intend to stall certification again this year, and there has not been a local effort to install hand counts, though some in the county still want them. The primary election this year in Cochise didn’t see any disruptions.“They have been quieter recently as this court case has been playing out,” Bruner said. “You haven’t seen public statements from either of them suggesting that they would refuse to certify this time.”Judd is not running for re-election, but Crosby is. Democrats have seen more interest in their candidates for supervisor and recorder roles this year than in previous cycles, including from national groups that have given endorsements to boost their profiles. Theresa Walsh, a retired army colonel who is challenging Crosby in November, lists one policy statement on her website – election integrity.“Since the elections of 2020, many in our State and Cochise County have said that votes weren’t counted or weren’t correctly counted, that election results were tainted, changing the outcome of races,” her statement says. “As I learned as a pre-law student, you can’t just say it, you have to prove it. And that hasn’t happened. Because it didn’t happen. We have election integrity, we have systems we can trust.” More

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      Vance and Walz Make Dueling Appearances, as Voting Begins in Arizona

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      Senator JD Vance of Ohio and Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota opened the first day of voting in Arizona on Wednesday with a spree of campaign events across the state, zeroing in on a crucial swing state after their debate last week.Arizona, with its 15 Electoral College votes, has no clear favorite in the presidential race — even as polls there show a slight lead by former President Donald J. Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris. Mr. Trump won the state by a significant margin in 2016, and President Biden won the state in 2020 by less than 11,000 votes — a narrow victory that both campaigns highlighted as evidence that every vote in the state will matter this year.The two vice-presidential candidates fanned out in the morning from luxury hotels near Phoenix and Tucson, and their motorcades crisscrossed desert highways to campaign in the two urban centers. Mr. Vance first held a rally in Tucson before attending a town-hall event hosted by the Conservative Political Action Conference in Mesa, near Phoenix. Mr. Walz visited a Veterans of Foreign Wars post and met with tribal leaders on tribal land, near Phoenix, before holding a campaign rally in the evening at a high school gym in Tucson.Mr. Walz and Mr. Vance said little of each other — instead directing their attacks at each other’s running mates — even as the two came close to crossing paths in Phoenix. Mr. Vance flew from Tucson to Phoenix in the midafternoon, and his campaign jet was parked nearby as Mr. Walz boarded his own campaign jet for the short hop to Tucson later that day.Senator JD Vance greeting supporters at a campaign event in Tucson, Ariz., on Wednesday.Grace Trejo/Arizona Daily Star, via Associated PressGov. Tim Walz, also in Tucson on Wednesday, at a campaign rally at Palo Verde High Magnet School.Kelly Presnell/Arizona Daily Star, via Associated PressSpeaking to supporters at an outdoor rally in sweltering heat at the Tucson Speedway, Mr. Vance urged Arizona residents to vote early, saying that “the best way to make sure your voice is counted is to make sure it’s counted early.” The appeal contradicts the messaging by his running mate, Mr. Trump, who continues to stoke doubts about mail voting.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More