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    The latest US presidential twist throws the race wide open – but what could it mean for Australia? | Arthur Sinodinos

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    The 2024 US presidential election is proof that in America nothing succeeds like excess.The standing down of President Biden is just the latest twist in this extraordinary race – and could be the circuit breaker the Democrats are looking for. It removes age as an issue for them and potentially refocuses the campaign, with Kamala Harris the standard bearer.She is within striking distance of Trump in national polls and involves the least disruptive transition to the Democrat campaign. Trump may seek to ridicule ‘laughing’ Kamala but that could backfire with voters, particularly women. She will need a running mate who can appeal in the swing states and has a compelling personal story. This will inject new energy into the campaign.Undoubtedly, Trump has momentum. The former president’s acceptance speech at the RNC did not chart a new policy direction or presage a kinder, gentler politics. That is not what fuels the Maga engine. Trump has harnessed the anger of those Americans who feel like outsiders in their own country, threatened by rapid change, identity politics and left behind by the widening of income and wealth inequalities.The selection of JD Vance, a smart and articulate convert to Maga is a signal that Trump is not looking to appeal to the ever-shrinking pool of moderates or independents. In Trump’s eyes, Maga is here to stay, and Vance is its tribune.The Democrats’ best strategy now is to turn the election into a referendum on Trump’s negatives, which they define as the chaos of his first term and threat to American institutions. The departure of President Biden provides that opportunity.US elections are determined by turnout. The Maga base is energised by Trump’s ‘resurrection’. Democrats will now have to pick themselves off the floor and push the buttons of various sections of the electorate to motivate turnout.In many ways, this is now a race between Vance and Harris, who is the most likely Democrat nominee. The age issue has been turned on its head. Vance’s views come into focus now that he is only a heartbeat away from the presidency.Many women will vote to send a message on restriction of abortion rights. Vance’s strong views on restricting abortion rights provide a perfect foil for this argument. Harris is best placed to run that argument. Trump has soft-pedalled on the issue in recognition of its lethality to his campaign.What does this mean for Australia and the rest of the world? Do not expect much change in international economic policy from either side of politics.Trump upended trade policy in 2016, forcing Hillary Clinton to disown her administration’s centrepiece trade strategy for the Indo-Pacific, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which dealt a major blow to the US pivot to the region. Since then, market access agreements have been off the table for both sides of politics with more interest in how to tilt the playing field in favour of US firms by imposing higher labour and environmental costs on foreign competitors.Covid 19 and the technological cold war with China are also reshaping industrial supply chains with more reshoring and friend-shoring in the offing. The Aukus capability pact and the Quad focus on critical and emerging tech are leading examples of this trend. Both Trump and a reelected Democrat administration will double down on this, with perhaps more onshoring in Trump’s case.One major point of difference is climate change policy and international cooperation. Trump is likely to again withdraw from the Paris agreement and promises to drill for more oil from day one, further extending America’s energy independence and fossil fuel exports. His industry policy is lower energy costs and less regulation to attract more onshoring.Trump’s tech policy is unclear. He flip-flopped on the banning of TikTok. He is courting the Silicon Valley titans, who are turning Maga in the hope of less tax on capital and no more regulation. Trump’s main beef with big tech is that it restricts free speech (his speech) on social media. Vance is a fan of support for little tech in opposition to big tech, and this appeals to his venture capitalist backers.The Trump mantra of ‘no more wars’ appeals to an electorate exhausted by the blood and treasure expended in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is likely he will follow through on solving Ukraine in one day (by effectively abandoning it), he is encouraging Israel to ‘finish the job’ in Gaza as soon as possible (that is, not on his watch) and the signal to China on Taiwan is very mixed. However, many Republicans are ardent supporters of Taiwan and its right to exist. This could put a brake on Trump sacrificing Taiwan on the altar of a grand bargain with China on trade.Trump is ahead now but we saw over the weekend how quickly things can change. As they used to say on World Championship Wrestling, anything can happen – and probably will.

    Arthur Sinodinos is a former Australian ambassador to the US. He is the partner and chair of The Asia Group’s Australia practice and was a former minister for industry, innovation and science More

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      The Guardian view on Putin and Kim: an alarming new pact needs close attention | Editorial

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      A shiny, sanctions-busting Russian limousine for Kim Jong-un. A fawning, rapturous reception for Vladimir Putin. These grand gestures may be welcomed by the North Korean and Russian leaders, but are intended as much for their global audience as for each other. The real prize is the strategic partnership treaty that they signed during Mr Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang since 2000. The question is what it will mean in practical terms.The relationship has been reinvigorated by events outside Asia, but hopes of containing it lie within the region. The proximate cause is evidently Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: an isolated and impoverished Pyongyang is already believed to have supplied millions of artillery shells in return for cheap oil, food and other sorely needed goods. Russia might also benefit from North Korean manpower, though much more likely for labour than combat.Further back lies Donald Trump’s disastrous wooing and dismissal of Mr Kim. Entirely predictably, by handing him a top-level summit without any realistic strategy to improve relations in the long term, the then president ensured Mr Kim gave up on improving relations with the US and looked elsewhere. He also prompted Mr Putin and Xi Jinping, who had kept Mr Kim at a distance, to hug him closer.The revival of a Soviet-era pledge of mutual support against “aggression” sounds primarily symbolic given North Korea’s nuclear prowess. More disturbing is Mr Putin’s remark that the partnership could include “military technical cooperation”. US intelligence officials have said that they believe Russia is providing nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology, though it is likely to extract a high price for such expertise and to have mixed feelings about North Korea’s advances. At a minimum, Russia – which signed up to sanctions in the Obama years – is now obstructing diplomatic action to restrain North Korea.The west has long feared a stronger relationship between Pyongyang, Moscow and Beijing. The launch of the Australian, UK and US (Aukus) security pact, a reaction to China’s growing forcefulness in the Asia-Pacific region, has in turn raised Beijing’s hackles. But China does not regard the others as peers and does not want to be seen as part of a trilateral axis with two pariah states, hence the lack of a Beijing stop on Mr Putin’s Asian tour itinerary. It would also like to retain primacy in managing North Korea, and to limit its weapons development. It does not want the US to become more active in the region and is concerned that it is growing closer to Japan and South Korea, which are also increasing their defence capabilities. Mr Kim’s shift from the long-held commitment to unification with the South to stressing hostility has not helped.South Korea also said explicitly that it will consider sending arms to Ukraine in reaction to the Russian-North Korean deal, spelling out the message to Moscow. Until now, Seoul has limited direct support to non-lethal supplies, though it has signed hefty arms deals with allies of Kyiv. Russia, which has also ramped up its own arms manufacturing at speed, may in the longer term seek to rekindle relations with South Korea and Japan anyway; their large economies compare strikingly to the limited attractions of North Korea. That too offers hope that this deal could be constrained both in extent and duration. The danger is how much damage is caused in the meantime. More

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      Cameron: Aukus and Nato must be in ‘best possible shape’ before potential Trump win – video

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      The UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, has suggested the Aukus pact and Nato alliance must get into the best possible shape to increase their chances of surviving Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House. Speaking after high-level talks in Australia, Cameron was careful to avoid criticising the former US president and presumptive Republican nominee for 2024, saying it was ‘up to America who they choose as their president’. The comments were in response to a question about whether the election of Trump in November would affect the Aukus agreement that was sealed with the Biden administration in March last year More

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      The moment US Congress passed bill allowing sale of Aukus nuclear submarines to Australia – video

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      The 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) which includes sweeping legislation covering a wide range of military priorities including Aukus passed the US House of Representatives, a day after it cleared the Senate. The acquisition of at least three such submarines from the US is an interim step before Australian-built nuclear-powered submarines start to enter into service in the 2040s More

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      White House dinner: the Kid Laroi and the B-52s among famous faces at event for Anthony Albanese

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      Australian rapper the Kid Laroi and Melbourne indie-folk singer Vance Joy have lent their star power to a White House state dinner in honour of the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, and his partner, Jodie Haydon.A Gen Z icon, the Kid Laroi invited his mother, Sloane Howard, to be his guest and appeared under his professional name. Joy was invited under his legal name, James Keogh, and attended with his wife, Selen Us.The Australian contingent at the black-tie affair also included Indigenous voice process co-designer and senior Australian of the year, Prof Tom Calma, and the Australian of the year, body positivity activist Taryn Brumfitt.The appearance of Peter V’landys, the chair of the Australian Rugby League Commission, was publicised ahead of time. The NRL is also hosting a double header in Las Vegas next year as its season opener, but the US government is also interested in the league’s influence in the Pacific, as it seeks to strengthen ties in the region.
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      The News Corp chair, Lachlan Murdoch, who attended the 2019 state dinner that former US president Donald Trump hosted for Scott Morrison, was a notable absence from the guest list, as were Australian Hollywood royalty Nicole Kidman and Margot Robbie.The event’s festivities, held on the South Lawn of the sprawling White House grounds, had been toned down in response to the Israel-Hamas war.American new-wave legends the B-52s had been slated as musical guests, but on Tuesday the US first lady announced a change to the entertainment, with American military bands slotted in to provide instrumental music.Jill Biden told reporters: “While we had initially planned for the legendary B-52s to perform their iconic dance and party music, we are now in a time when so many are facing sorrow and pain, and we have decided to make adjustments to the entertainment portion of the evening.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Love Shack and Rock Lobster performers attended the evening as guests.Among the other guests to enjoy the “American cuisine” – butternut squash (pumpkin) soup, braised short ribs and chocolate mousse – were a mix of Australian business and economic elites, including the Australian Industry Group’s chief, Innes Wilcox, and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry head, Andrew McKellar. The Macquarie boss, Shemara Wikramanayake, and the Bluescope CEO, Mark Vassella, were also there.Australian economist Justin Wolfers and his partner, Betsey Stevenson, a former US chief economist, were among the guests, which also included the Australian resources minister, Madeleine King, who was part of the delegation given the focus on critical minerals. (King’s first name was misspelt on the official list as Madeline).One of the stars of the iconic Baz Lurhmann film Romeo and Juliet, actor John Leguizamo, was among the American entertainment contingent invited to the dinner, which also included DreamWorks co-founder Jeffrey Katzenberg, renowned violinist Itzhak Perlman and producer Bruce Cohen.The New York Times executive editor, Joe Kahn, NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell and the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg were among the official guests. A number of people in the prime minister’s staff were also seated for the dinner.Joe Biden invited Albanese to the White House for an official state dinner to re-affirm the relationship between Australia and the US, after the president was forced to cancel a visit to Australia in May. The dinner followed a day of diplomacy, where the Middle East, China, the Pacific and the Aukus deal were all discussed.Albanese’s visit was seen as crucial in calming down Republican “jitters” over elements of the Aukus deal, with Biden keen to remind Congress of the importance of the Australian-US alliance. More

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      Aukus will ‘get done’ despite jitters in Congress, Biden tells Albanese at White House meeting

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      Joe Biden has played down congressional jitters over the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal and has revealed he assured Xi Jinping that the countries involved are not aiming to “surround China”.The US president welcomed the Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, to the White House and insisted he was “confident that we’re going to be able to get the money for Aukus because it’s overwhelmingly in our interest”.“So the question is not if, but when,” Biden said during a joint press conference with Albanese in the rose garden on Wednesday US time (Thursday Australian time).Biden also relayed a conversation he previously had with China’s president about the Aukus security partnership, in which Australia, the US and the UK have pledged to work together on advanced defence capabilities.“When I was asked when we put together the deal, I was asked by Xi Jinping, were we just trying to surround China?,” Biden said“I said, no, we’re not surrounding China. We’re just making sure that the sea lanes remain open, it doesn’t unilaterally to be able to change the rules of the road in terms of what constitutes international airspace and water, space, etc.”Biden and Albanese spoke to reporters after wide-ranging talks at the White House. They pledged to cooperate in numerous fields, including space, with a deal paving the way for launches of US commercial space vehicles from Australia.There was a heavy emphasis on working with Pacific countries amid intensifying competition for influence in the region.The leaders announced plans for the US and Australia to “co‑finance critical maritime infrastructure projects in Kiribati, including the rehabilitation of Kanton Wharf and Charlie Wharf in Tarawa”. They will also assist Pacific countries with banking services and undersea cables.The climate crisis formed a significant part of the talks, with plans to collaborate on battery supply chains “to explore the deepening of both countries’ manufacturing capability and work on battery technology research and development”.In their joint statement, Biden and Albanese acknowledged that “achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement will require rapid deployment of clean energy and decarbonisation technologies, and increased electrification in our countries this decade, alongside the phasedown of unabated coal power”.It was the ninth time Albanese has met with Biden since the May 2022 election, although the earlier meetings mostly occurred on the sidelines of international events.Biden and the first lady, Jill Biden, welcomed Albanese and his partner, Jodie Haydon, to the White House for a private dinner on Tuesday evening but the main diplomatic talks were held on Wednesday.The day began with a welcome on the south lawn of the White House before the two leaders held a formal meeting in the Oval Office.Biden began that meeting by apologising “again for not being able to make my visit to Australia” in May when the Quad summit in Sydney was called off because of debt ceiling negotiations in the US.“Things were a little bit in disarray here and required to be home,” Biden told Albanese.Albanese will be feted at a state dinner later on Wednesday US time (late Thursday morning AEDT).Biden described ties with Australia as “strong” and getting “stronger”, while Albanese said the alliance was based on “a faith in freedom and democracy, a belief in opportunity, a determination to build a prosperous and more peaceful world”.However, seven months after Albanese joined Biden and the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, in San Diego to announce the Aukus plans, there remains uncertainty over congressional approvals needed for them to succeed.Aukus will require reforms to the US export control system. Congress will also need to authorise the sale of at least three Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s but some Republicans have raised concerns that will come at the cost of the US’s own needs. Australian-built nuclear-powered submarines are due to enter into service from the 2040s.Standing alongside Albanese on Wednesday, Biden urged Congress to “pass our Aukus legislation this year”.Albanese played down concerns about the deal, saying he regarded the US “as a very reliable partner”.“And I regard the relationship that I have with the president as second to none of the relationships that I have around the world, or indeed domestically, for that matter,” Albanese said.The prime minister said he was “very confident in the discussions that I’ve had with Democrats and Republicans that there is very broad support for the Aukus arrangements”.Albanese said he looked forward to “a constructive dialogue” when he visits China next month, describing such talks as important to build understanding and reduce tensions.Biden and Albanese also discussed the Israel-Hamas conflict. In their joint statement, they said Hamas attacks on Israel “can have no justification, no legitimacy, and must be universally condemned”.While pledging to “support Israel as it defends itself and its people against such atrocities”, the two leaders also called on “all parties to act consistent with the principles of international law and to protect civilians as an utmost priority”.“We are concerned at the humanitarian situation in Gaza and call on all actors to ensure the provision of humanitarian supplies to populations in need,” Biden and Albanese said.“Our two countries support equal measures of dignity, freedom, and self-determination for Israelis and Palestinians alike and we mourn every civilian life lost in this conflict. We continue to support Palestinian aspirations for a state of their own and consider a two-state solution as the best avenue towards a lasting peace.”Albanese announced that Australia would provide an additional $15m in humanitarian assistance for civilians in Gaza. More

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      Anthony Albanese confident dysfunction in US Congress won’t affect Aukus deal

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      Anthony Albanese has expressed confidence that rolling dysfunction in the legislature of the United States won’t derail the Aukus nuclear submarine pact, telling reporters he will continue to engage senators and members of Congress during his time in Washington.Republican infighting has paralysed the US House of Representatives for the past three weeks. Former speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted on 3 October and colleagues are yet to determine his successor.
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      Asked during his four-day official visit whether he was concerned the imbroglio around the speakership would delay critical legislation needed for the submarine pact, Australia’s prime minister told travelling reporters he was “very confident” discussions with legislators had been, and would be, productive.“We are able to talk with legislators, and we’re doing so,” Albanese said. “And I’ll be meeting some people this afternoon, and then again tomorrow, and then Wednesday and Thursday, while I’m here, and we’re very confident that those discussions have been very productive.”Albanese said the election of a new speaker was a matter for congressional members, but Australia would “continue to engage” with legislators.As well as the complication of congressional dysfunction, doubts about Australia’s willingness to join forces with the US in a war against China are also being cited by congressional researchers as a potential obstacle to the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal.The Aukus plan was intended to start with increased visits by US submarines to Australian ports this year, followed by a rotational presence of one UK Astute class submarine and up to four US Virginia class submarines at HMAS Stirling near Perth, Western Australia, late this decade at the earliest.Australia earlier this year earmarked $3bn to help the US reduce work backlogs on its Virginia class submarines, and expand its production ability. The Albanese government has signalled previously there is “scope for additional funding” beyond the first four-year budget period, with the exact amount to depend on negotiations with the two countries.The prime minister was asked whether or not he would be willing to increase Australia’s current commitment of $3bn in an effort to persuade more Republicans to support the legislation necessary to enable Aukus.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAlbanese said Australia’s current level of support to boost the industrial base in the US was “appropriate”.He said the government’s financial contribution would enable Australians to be trained alongside skilled personnel in the US and the UK, and “president Biden is on the same page” with that aspiration. Collaboration between the US, the UK and Australia would lift the defence capability of all three nations, which would help preserve security in the Indo-Pacific.“The combination of the three nations cooperating when it comes to defence capacity lifts the capacity of everyone, of all three countries,” Albanese said. “That’s what this is about. Win-win-win for Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom.”Australia’s prime minister said the US legislators he had spoken to “not only get that, they support it, and they support it very strongly – and that has been across the board whether they be Democrat or Republican”.“I’m very confident of a very positive outcome,” Albanese said. More

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      Aukus could weaken China deterrence,

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      Doubts about Australia’s willingness to join forces with the US in a war against China are being cited by congressional researchers as a potential obstacle to the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal.A new research paper looks at the US plan to sell Australia between three and five Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s but suggests the idea “could weaken deterrence of potential Chinese aggression”.That stage of the deal aims to help Canberra bridge a “capability gap” before Australian-built nuclear-powered submarines begin to enter into service in the 2040s.The paper, prepared by the Congressional Research Service, aims to provide members of the US congress with a neutral summary of key arguments likely to be raised by supporters and sceptics of the plan.It lists six “potential arguments from sceptics”, including that the sale could weaken deterrence “if China were to find reason to believe, correctly or not, that Australia might use its Virginia-class boats less effectively than the US Navy would use them”.That weakening of deterrence could also be the case if Beijing were to conclude “that Australia might not involve its military, including its Virginia-class boats, in US-China crises or conflicts that Australia viewed as not engaging important Australian interests”.The report cited comments by the Australian defence minister, Richard Marles, in March that the Aukus deal did not include any pre-commitments to the US regarding involvement in a potential future conflict over Taiwan.
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      The report added: “Virginia-class boats are less certain to be used in a US-China conflict over Taiwan, or less certain to be used in such a conflict in the way that the United States might prefer, if they are sold to Australia rather than retained in US Navy service.”In another argument that may embolden Republican critics of the submarine sale, the paper noted “the challenges that the US submarine industrial base is experiencing in achieving a desired construction rate of two Virginia-class boats per year”.The ability of the US to build replacement submarines for Virginia-class boats sold to Australia was “uncertain”, according to the paper first reported by the Australian Financial Review.The paper also suggested that the costs for Australia to acquire, operate and maintain Virginia-class submarines “could reduce, perhaps significantly, funding within Australia’s military budget for other Australian military capabilities” – especially if the figures “turn out to be higher than expected”.“If this were to occur, there could be a net negative impact on Australia’s overall military capabilities for deterring potential Chinese aggression.”The Australian government has repeatedly argued it will retain sovereign control of the submarines, despite arguments from the former prime ministers Malcolm Turnbull and Paul Keating that the multi-decade arrangement relies on US support and reduces Australia’s room to move.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBut the new paper suggested it might be “more cost-effective to pursue a US-Australian division of labor” under which US submarines would perform both American and Australian missions “while Australia invests in other types of military forces”. It pointed to such arrangements between the US and its Nato allies.The paper also mentioned concerns about the impact of a potential accident, even though it said the Australian navy was “a fully professional force that would operate and maintain its Virginia-class boats in a manner fully adhering to the US Navy’s strict and exacting safety, quality-control, and accountability standards”.It said the sale “would unavoidably make another country responsible for preventing an accident” with a US-made submarine and any significant problem “might call into question for third-party observers the safety of all US Navy nuclear-powered ships”.On the other side of the ledger, the paper said supporters could argue that the Aukus deal “would substantially enhance deterrence of potential Chinese aggression by sending a strong signal to China of the collective determination of the United States and Australia, along with the UK, to counter China’s military modernization effort”.“The fact that the United States has never before sold a complete SSN [nuclear-powered submarine] to another country – not even the UK – would underscore the depth of this determination, and thus the strength of the deterrent signal it would send.”Instead of waiting for Australia to build its own submarines, the interim sale of Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s “would substantially accelerate the creation of an Australian force” of nuclear-powered submarines.That would “present China much sooner with a second allied decision-making center” for submarine operations in the Indo-Pacific region, “which would enhance deterrence of potential Chinese aggression by complicating Chinese military planning”. More

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      The Camp David summit signals a new cold war – this time with China | Observer editorial

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      If it sounds like a new cold war and looks like a new cold war, then it probably is a new cold war. For what other interpretation is to be placed on US president Joe Biden’s latest ramping up of diplomatic, economic and military pressure on China?Western officials tend to avoid the term, recalling as it does decades of hair-trigger confrontation with the former Soviet Union. They talk instead about enhanced security and defence cooperation and the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific region. But such bland generalisations belie the fact that Biden is now pushing back hard at a repressive, authoritarian regime in Beijing that he and many Americans believe is determined to overthrow the international democratic, geopolitical and legal order safeguarded by the US. Last week’s groundbreaking Camp David summit hosted by Biden for Japan’s prime minister, Fumio Kishida, and South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, perfectly fitted this agenda. It produced a series of measures aimed squarely at China and its “dangerous and aggressive behaviour”.They include a trilateral mechanism to deal with perceived security threats; expanded military exercises; and increased ballistic missile cooperation – despite the risk that China could retaliate in like fashion or use economic sanctions, as in the past, to punish export-dependent Tokyo and Seoul.For Japan, the Camp David agreement marks another significant stage in its journey away from postwar pacifism towards becoming a fully fledged, fully armed member of the US-led western democratic alliance. It will add to Tokyo’s sense of growing confrontation with China.For South Korea, the trilateral pact may come to be seen as the moment it finally moved on from the bitter feud with Japan over the latter’s 20th-century colonisation of the peninsula. Credit is due to Yoon, who has taken to describing Tokyo as a “partner” with shared values and interests.Biden’s success in bringing old enemies together is a notable achievement, too. He is hoping to pull off a similar feat with Israel and Saudi Arabia. The contrast with Donald Trump’s fatuous attempts to woo Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s nuclear-armed dictator, is striking.Improved three-way cooperation in facing down the threat posed by Pyongyang may be another benefit of Camp David. Defying UN sanctions, Kim has stepped up his intimidatory missile “tests” this year. China, disappointingly, has done little to stop him. Beijing’s ally, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, is positively encouraging him.While US officials are careful how they frame the new agreement, China is in no doubt it is aimed directly at itself. It follows Biden’s upgrading of the so-called Quad, which groups the US, India, Japan and Australia; the creation of Aukus, a security pact with Australia and the UK; and a raised US naval and air force profile in the Philippines, South China Sea and around Taiwan. In another message to Beijing, Biden will visit India next month.The numerous, ill-judged actions of President Xi Jinping’s regime have brought much of this down on its own head. Nevertheless, Beijing blames the west whose nefarious aim, it says, is containment designed to stifle China’s development. State media described Camp David as the launch of a “mini Nato” that will threaten regional security and exacerbate tensions.US officials reject the analogy. But the claim brings us back to the question of a new cold war. China evidently believes one has already begun. Is this really what Biden, the UK and regional allies want? If that is the case, they should have the courage to say so in terms – and explain what they plan to do if it turns “hot”. More