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    Australia won’t receive Aukus nuclear submarines unless US doubles shipbuilding, admiral warns

    The US cannot sell any Virginia-class nuclear submarines to Australia without doubling its production rate, because it is making too few for its own defence, the navy’s nominee for chief of operations has told Congress.There are “no magic beans” to boosting the US’s sclerotic shipbuilding capacity, Admiral Daryl Caudle said in frank evidence before a Senate committee.The US’s submarine fleet numbers are a quarter below their target, US government figures show, and the country is producing boats at just over half the rate it needs to service its own defence requirements.Testifying before the Senate Committee on Armed Services as part of his confirmation process to serve as the next chief of naval operations, Caudle lauded Royal Australian Navy sailors as “incredible submariners”, but said the US would not be able to sell them any boats – as committed under the Aukus pact – without a “100% improvement” on shipbuilding rates.The US Navy estimates it needs to be building Virginia-class submarines at a rate of 2.00 a year to meet its own defence requirements, and about 2.33 to have enough boats to sell any to Australia. It is currently building Virginia-class submarines at a rate of about 1.13 a year, senior admirals say.“Australia’s ability to conduct undersea warfare is not in question,” Caudle said, “but as you know the delivery pace is not what it needs to be to make good on the pillar one of the Aukus agreement which is currently under review by our defence department”.Caudle said efficiency gains or marginal improvements would not be sufficient to “make good on the actual pact that we made with the UK and Australia, which is … around 2.2 to 2.3 Virginia-class submarines per year”.“That is going to require a transformational improvement; not a 10% improvement, not a 20% improvement but a 100% improvement,” he said.Sign up: AU Breaking News emailUnder pillar one of the Aukus agreement, Australia is scheduled to buy between three and five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US, starting in 2032.The UK will build the first Aukus-class submarine for its navy by “the late 2030s”. The first Australian-built Aukus boat will be in the water “in the early 2040s”. Aukus is forecast to cost Australia up to $368bn over 30 years.US goodwill towards Australia, or the import of the US-alliance, would be irrelevant to any decision to sell submarines: Aukus legislation prohibits the US selling Australia any submarine if that would weaken US naval strength.Australia has already paid $1.6bn out of an expected total of $4.7bn (US$3bn) to help the US boost its flagging shipbuilding industry.But the US itself has been pouring money into its shipbuilding yards, without noticeable effect.A joint statement on “the state of nuclear shipbuilding” issued by three rear admirals in April noted that while Congress had committed an additional US$5.7bn to lift wages and shipyard productivity, “we have not observed the needed and expected ramp-up in Columbia-class and Virginia-class submarine production rates necessary”.Caudle, himself a career submariner, said the US would need “creativity, ingenuity, and some outsourcing improvements” if it were to meet its shipbuilding demands and produce 2.3 Virginia-class vessels a year.“There are no magic beans to that,” he told the Senate hearing. “There’s nothing that’s just going to make that happen. So the solution space has got to open up.”‘Why is there no plan B?’The former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who first reported on Caudle’s testimony to the Senate, told the Guardian that there was “no shortage of goodwill towards Australia” from the US in relation to Aukus, but the realities of a shortfall of submarines meant there was a “very, very high” probability that Virginia-class submarines would never arrive under Australian control.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTurnbull said the language coming from US naval experts was “framing expectations realistically”, essentially saying that, without dramatic reform, the US could not sell any of its Virginia-class boats. With the Collins class nearing the end of their service lives, and the Aukus submarine design and build facing delays in the UK, Australia could be left without any submarine capability for a decade, potentially two, Turnbull argued.“The risk of us not getting any Virginia-class submarines is – objectively – very, very high. The real question is why is the government not acknowledging that … and why is there no plan B? What are they doing to acquire alternative capabilities in the event of the Virginias not arriving?”Turnbull – who, as prime minister, had signed the diesel-electric submarine deal with French giant Naval that was unilaterally abandoned in favour of the Aukus agreement in 2021 – argued the Australian government, parliament and media had failed to properly interrogate the Aukus deal.“When you compare the candour and the detail of the disclosure that the US Congress gets from the Department of the Navy, and the fluff we get here, it’s a disgrace. Our parliament has the most at stake, but is the least curious, and the least informed.On Friday, the defence minister, Richard Marles, told reporters in Sydney “work on Aukus continues apace”.“We continue to work very closely … with the United States in progressing the optimal pathway to Australia acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine capability,” he said.“In respect of the production and maintenance schedule in the United States, we continue to make our financial contributions to that industrial base.”Marles cited the $1.6bn paid to the US to boost its shipbuilding industry already this year, with further payments to come, and said that 120 Australian tradespeople were currently working on sustaining Virginia-class submarines in Pearl Harbor.“All of that work continues and we are really confident that the production rates will be raised in America, which is very much part of the ambition of Aukus.”The Guardian put a series of questions to Marles’s office about Caudle’s Senate testimony. 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    US accuses Australia of breaking ‘verbal commitment’ on aluminium exports as Trump weighs tariffs exemption

    Donald Trump has called Australia’s prime minister a “very fine man” and said he would give “great consideration” to exempting the country from his new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, after a phone call between the two leaders.It came after comments on Tuesday from the US president that there would be no exceptions or exemptions on the tariffs, which will start on 12 March unless Anthony Albanese can secure an exemption.The official proclamation to impose the aluminium tariff appeared to explain why Australia was not exempted from the outset, with the US accusing Australia of breaking a “verbal commitment” to limit aluminium exports.

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    The new proclamation read: “The volume of U.S. imports of primary aluminum from Australia has also surged and in 2024 was approximately 103% higher than the average volume for 2015 through 2017. Australia has disregarded its verbal commitment to voluntarily restrain its aluminum exports to a reasonable level.”Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull negotiated a carve out from steel and aluminium tariffs during Trump’s first term.Asked about the proclamation on Tuesday night, the deputy prime minister and defence minister, Richard Marles, told ABC’s 7.30: “I can’t speak for the former government, in terms of what it did or didn’t do … but in the discussion that was had today, in the president’s own press conference, having signed the executive order, he made clear that Australian exemptions to this order would be under active consideration. And that’s where this is now at.”Earlier on Tuesday, Albanese said his second call with Trump had been a “very positive and constructive discussion”, which canvassed the Aukus defence pact, critical minerals and foreign investment between the two countries.Albanese said he had also made the case for Australia to be exempted from tariffs and was hopeful of such an outcome.“If you have a look at what we’ve achieved already, it’s been a tremendous start to the relationship,” Albanese told a press conference in Parliament House.Minutes later, the White House announced that the president was signing executive orders to place a 25% tariff on the imports, stepping up a long-promised trade war.Trump initially said the tariffs would be imposed without exceptions but then confirmed he was giving “great consideration” to an Australian carve-out.Asked about his call with Albanese, Trump called the Australian leader “a very fine man” and noted the US trade surplus with Australia.“We have a surplus with Australia, one of the few … I told him that [exemptions] is something we will give great consideration,” Trump said.The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, also publicly urged the Trump administration to exempt Australia from tariffs, claiming any move to the contrary would “damage the relationship” between the two countries.“Tariffs are not warranted against Australia because we have a trade surplus,” he said.Australian politicians were rocked on Monday when Trump told reporters in the US that he planned to announce new tariffs on all steel and aluminium arriving in America.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Labor government been bracing for such a decision after Trump levelled similar tariffs in his first term, with senior ministers and officials working behind the scenes for some time to secure exemptions like those secured by the then-Coalition government after months of negotiations in 2018.“Our aluminium is a critical input for manufacturing in the United States,” Albanese said on Tuesday after his call with Trump. “Our steel and aluminium are both key inputs for the US-Australia defence industries in both of our countries.“I presented Australia’s case for an exemption and we agreed on wording to say publicly, which is that the US president agreed that an exemption was under consideration in the interests of both of our countries.”Albanese would not reveal more about the process by which the exemption would be considered, the timeline by which a decision would be reached, or what Australia would do if the exemption was ultimately rejected. He said he would not speak for Trump but again referred warmly to the Australia-US relationship.“What I envisage is continuing to act to respond diplomatically,” he said. “That’s how you get things done. My government’s got a record of getting things done in Australia’s national interest. I’ll continue to do so.”A US congressman has hit out at any attempt to slap tariffs on Australian products.Joe Courtney, a Democratic politician and co-chair of the Friends of Australia Caucus,, noted that Australia had just this week begun sending payments to Washington as part of the Aukus pact to help bolster the US submarine construction program.“What we’re seeing is a completely needless, almost insult to the people of Australia by raising tariffs of Australian products coming into this country,” Courtney said.The shadow trade minister, Kevin Hogan, suggested that the government should “reach out to whoever may help” Australia secure exemptions, including the former Coalition politicians Scott Morrison and Joe Hockey.“I encourage the prime minister and indeed ambassador [Kevin] Rudd to talk to people like Morrison, people like Hockey,” he told the ABC. “We had a precedent when we got an exemption, they should be using those resources.” More

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    The latest US presidential twist throws the race wide open – but what could it mean for Australia? | Arthur Sinodinos

    The 2024 US presidential election is proof that in America nothing succeeds like excess.The standing down of President Biden is just the latest twist in this extraordinary race – and could be the circuit breaker the Democrats are looking for. It removes age as an issue for them and potentially refocuses the campaign, with Kamala Harris the standard bearer.She is within striking distance of Trump in national polls and involves the least disruptive transition to the Democrat campaign. Trump may seek to ridicule ‘laughing’ Kamala but that could backfire with voters, particularly women. She will need a running mate who can appeal in the swing states and has a compelling personal story. This will inject new energy into the campaign.Undoubtedly, Trump has momentum. The former president’s acceptance speech at the RNC did not chart a new policy direction or presage a kinder, gentler politics. That is not what fuels the Maga engine. Trump has harnessed the anger of those Americans who feel like outsiders in their own country, threatened by rapid change, identity politics and left behind by the widening of income and wealth inequalities.The selection of JD Vance, a smart and articulate convert to Maga is a signal that Trump is not looking to appeal to the ever-shrinking pool of moderates or independents. In Trump’s eyes, Maga is here to stay, and Vance is its tribune.The Democrats’ best strategy now is to turn the election into a referendum on Trump’s negatives, which they define as the chaos of his first term and threat to American institutions. The departure of President Biden provides that opportunity.US elections are determined by turnout. The Maga base is energised by Trump’s ‘resurrection’. Democrats will now have to pick themselves off the floor and push the buttons of various sections of the electorate to motivate turnout.In many ways, this is now a race between Vance and Harris, who is the most likely Democrat nominee. The age issue has been turned on its head. Vance’s views come into focus now that he is only a heartbeat away from the presidency.Many women will vote to send a message on restriction of abortion rights. Vance’s strong views on restricting abortion rights provide a perfect foil for this argument. Harris is best placed to run that argument. Trump has soft-pedalled on the issue in recognition of its lethality to his campaign.What does this mean for Australia and the rest of the world? Do not expect much change in international economic policy from either side of politics.Trump upended trade policy in 2016, forcing Hillary Clinton to disown her administration’s centrepiece trade strategy for the Indo-Pacific, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which dealt a major blow to the US pivot to the region. Since then, market access agreements have been off the table for both sides of politics with more interest in how to tilt the playing field in favour of US firms by imposing higher labour and environmental costs on foreign competitors.Covid 19 and the technological cold war with China are also reshaping industrial supply chains with more reshoring and friend-shoring in the offing. The Aukus capability pact and the Quad focus on critical and emerging tech are leading examples of this trend. Both Trump and a reelected Democrat administration will double down on this, with perhaps more onshoring in Trump’s case.One major point of difference is climate change policy and international cooperation. Trump is likely to again withdraw from the Paris agreement and promises to drill for more oil from day one, further extending America’s energy independence and fossil fuel exports. His industry policy is lower energy costs and less regulation to attract more onshoring.Trump’s tech policy is unclear. He flip-flopped on the banning of TikTok. He is courting the Silicon Valley titans, who are turning Maga in the hope of less tax on capital and no more regulation. Trump’s main beef with big tech is that it restricts free speech (his speech) on social media. Vance is a fan of support for little tech in opposition to big tech, and this appeals to his venture capitalist backers.The Trump mantra of ‘no more wars’ appeals to an electorate exhausted by the blood and treasure expended in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is likely he will follow through on solving Ukraine in one day (by effectively abandoning it), he is encouraging Israel to ‘finish the job’ in Gaza as soon as possible (that is, not on his watch) and the signal to China on Taiwan is very mixed. However, many Republicans are ardent supporters of Taiwan and its right to exist. This could put a brake on Trump sacrificing Taiwan on the altar of a grand bargain with China on trade.Trump is ahead now but we saw over the weekend how quickly things can change. As they used to say on World Championship Wrestling, anything can happen – and probably will.

    Arthur Sinodinos is a former Australian ambassador to the US. He is the partner and chair of The Asia Group’s Australia practice and was a former minister for industry, innovation and science More

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    The Guardian view on Putin and Kim: an alarming new pact needs close attention | Editorial

    A shiny, sanctions-busting Russian limousine for Kim Jong-un. A fawning, rapturous reception for Vladimir Putin. These grand gestures may be welcomed by the North Korean and Russian leaders, but are intended as much for their global audience as for each other. The real prize is the strategic partnership treaty that they signed during Mr Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang since 2000. The question is what it will mean in practical terms.The relationship has been reinvigorated by events outside Asia, but hopes of containing it lie within the region. The proximate cause is evidently Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: an isolated and impoverished Pyongyang is already believed to have supplied millions of artillery shells in return for cheap oil, food and other sorely needed goods. Russia might also benefit from North Korean manpower, though much more likely for labour than combat.Further back lies Donald Trump’s disastrous wooing and dismissal of Mr Kim. Entirely predictably, by handing him a top-level summit without any realistic strategy to improve relations in the long term, the then president ensured Mr Kim gave up on improving relations with the US and looked elsewhere. He also prompted Mr Putin and Xi Jinping, who had kept Mr Kim at a distance, to hug him closer.The revival of a Soviet-era pledge of mutual support against “aggression” sounds primarily symbolic given North Korea’s nuclear prowess. More disturbing is Mr Putin’s remark that the partnership could include “military technical cooperation”. US intelligence officials have said that they believe Russia is providing nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology, though it is likely to extract a high price for such expertise and to have mixed feelings about North Korea’s advances. At a minimum, Russia – which signed up to sanctions in the Obama years – is now obstructing diplomatic action to restrain North Korea.The west has long feared a stronger relationship between Pyongyang, Moscow and Beijing. The launch of the Australian, UK and US (Aukus) security pact, a reaction to China’s growing forcefulness in the Asia-Pacific region, has in turn raised Beijing’s hackles. But China does not regard the others as peers and does not want to be seen as part of a trilateral axis with two pariah states, hence the lack of a Beijing stop on Mr Putin’s Asian tour itinerary. It would also like to retain primacy in managing North Korea, and to limit its weapons development. It does not want the US to become more active in the region and is concerned that it is growing closer to Japan and South Korea, which are also increasing their defence capabilities. Mr Kim’s shift from the long-held commitment to unification with the South to stressing hostility has not helped.South Korea also said explicitly that it will consider sending arms to Ukraine in reaction to the Russian-North Korean deal, spelling out the message to Moscow. Until now, Seoul has limited direct support to non-lethal supplies, though it has signed hefty arms deals with allies of Kyiv. Russia, which has also ramped up its own arms manufacturing at speed, may in the longer term seek to rekindle relations with South Korea and Japan anyway; their large economies compare strikingly to the limited attractions of North Korea. That too offers hope that this deal could be constrained both in extent and duration. The danger is how much damage is caused in the meantime. More

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    Cameron: Aukus and Nato must be in ‘best possible shape’ before potential Trump win – video

    The UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, has suggested the Aukus pact and Nato alliance must get into the best possible shape to increase their chances of surviving Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House. Speaking after high-level talks in Australia, Cameron was careful to avoid criticising the former US president and presumptive Republican nominee for 2024, saying it was ‘up to America who they choose as their president’. The comments were in response to a question about whether the election of Trump in November would affect the Aukus agreement that was sealed with the Biden administration in March last year More

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    The moment US Congress passed bill allowing sale of Aukus nuclear submarines to Australia – video

    The 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) which includes sweeping legislation covering a wide range of military priorities including Aukus passed the US House of Representatives, a day after it cleared the Senate. The acquisition of at least three such submarines from the US is an interim step before Australian-built nuclear-powered submarines start to enter into service in the 2040s More

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    White House dinner: the Kid Laroi and the B-52s among famous faces at event for Anthony Albanese

    Australian rapper the Kid Laroi and Melbourne indie-folk singer Vance Joy have lent their star power to a White House state dinner in honour of the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, and his partner, Jodie Haydon.A Gen Z icon, the Kid Laroi invited his mother, Sloane Howard, to be his guest and appeared under his professional name. Joy was invited under his legal name, James Keogh, and attended with his wife, Selen Us.The Australian contingent at the black-tie affair also included Indigenous voice process co-designer and senior Australian of the year, Prof Tom Calma, and the Australian of the year, body positivity activist Taryn Brumfitt.The appearance of Peter V’landys, the chair of the Australian Rugby League Commission, was publicised ahead of time. The NRL is also hosting a double header in Las Vegas next year as its season opener, but the US government is also interested in the league’s influence in the Pacific, as it seeks to strengthen ties in the region.
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    The News Corp chair, Lachlan Murdoch, who attended the 2019 state dinner that former US president Donald Trump hosted for Scott Morrison, was a notable absence from the guest list, as were Australian Hollywood royalty Nicole Kidman and Margot Robbie.The event’s festivities, held on the South Lawn of the sprawling White House grounds, had been toned down in response to the Israel-Hamas war.American new-wave legends the B-52s had been slated as musical guests, but on Tuesday the US first lady announced a change to the entertainment, with American military bands slotted in to provide instrumental music.Jill Biden told reporters: “While we had initially planned for the legendary B-52s to perform their iconic dance and party music, we are now in a time when so many are facing sorrow and pain, and we have decided to make adjustments to the entertainment portion of the evening.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Love Shack and Rock Lobster performers attended the evening as guests.Among the other guests to enjoy the “American cuisine” – butternut squash (pumpkin) soup, braised short ribs and chocolate mousse – were a mix of Australian business and economic elites, including the Australian Industry Group’s chief, Innes Wilcox, and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry head, Andrew McKellar. The Macquarie boss, Shemara Wikramanayake, and the Bluescope CEO, Mark Vassella, were also there.Australian economist Justin Wolfers and his partner, Betsey Stevenson, a former US chief economist, were among the guests, which also included the Australian resources minister, Madeleine King, who was part of the delegation given the focus on critical minerals. (King’s first name was misspelt on the official list as Madeline).One of the stars of the iconic Baz Lurhmann film Romeo and Juliet, actor John Leguizamo, was among the American entertainment contingent invited to the dinner, which also included DreamWorks co-founder Jeffrey Katzenberg, renowned violinist Itzhak Perlman and producer Bruce Cohen.The New York Times executive editor, Joe Kahn, NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell and the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg were among the official guests. A number of people in the prime minister’s staff were also seated for the dinner.Joe Biden invited Albanese to the White House for an official state dinner to re-affirm the relationship between Australia and the US, after the president was forced to cancel a visit to Australia in May. The dinner followed a day of diplomacy, where the Middle East, China, the Pacific and the Aukus deal were all discussed.Albanese’s visit was seen as crucial in calming down Republican “jitters” over elements of the Aukus deal, with Biden keen to remind Congress of the importance of the Australian-US alliance. More

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    Aukus will ‘get done’ despite jitters in Congress, Biden tells Albanese at White House meeting

    Joe Biden has played down congressional jitters over the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal and has revealed he assured Xi Jinping that the countries involved are not aiming to “surround China”.The US president welcomed the Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, to the White House and insisted he was “confident that we’re going to be able to get the money for Aukus because it’s overwhelmingly in our interest”.“So the question is not if, but when,” Biden said during a joint press conference with Albanese in the rose garden on Wednesday US time (Thursday Australian time).Biden also relayed a conversation he previously had with China’s president about the Aukus security partnership, in which Australia, the US and the UK have pledged to work together on advanced defence capabilities.“When I was asked when we put together the deal, I was asked by Xi Jinping, were we just trying to surround China?,” Biden said“I said, no, we’re not surrounding China. We’re just making sure that the sea lanes remain open, it doesn’t unilaterally to be able to change the rules of the road in terms of what constitutes international airspace and water, space, etc.”Biden and Albanese spoke to reporters after wide-ranging talks at the White House. They pledged to cooperate in numerous fields, including space, with a deal paving the way for launches of US commercial space vehicles from Australia.There was a heavy emphasis on working with Pacific countries amid intensifying competition for influence in the region.The leaders announced plans for the US and Australia to “co‑finance critical maritime infrastructure projects in Kiribati, including the rehabilitation of Kanton Wharf and Charlie Wharf in Tarawa”. They will also assist Pacific countries with banking services and undersea cables.The climate crisis formed a significant part of the talks, with plans to collaborate on battery supply chains “to explore the deepening of both countries’ manufacturing capability and work on battery technology research and development”.In their joint statement, Biden and Albanese acknowledged that “achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement will require rapid deployment of clean energy and decarbonisation technologies, and increased electrification in our countries this decade, alongside the phasedown of unabated coal power”.It was the ninth time Albanese has met with Biden since the May 2022 election, although the earlier meetings mostly occurred on the sidelines of international events.Biden and the first lady, Jill Biden, welcomed Albanese and his partner, Jodie Haydon, to the White House for a private dinner on Tuesday evening but the main diplomatic talks were held on Wednesday.The day began with a welcome on the south lawn of the White House before the two leaders held a formal meeting in the Oval Office.Biden began that meeting by apologising “again for not being able to make my visit to Australia” in May when the Quad summit in Sydney was called off because of debt ceiling negotiations in the US.“Things were a little bit in disarray here and required to be home,” Biden told Albanese.Albanese will be feted at a state dinner later on Wednesday US time (late Thursday morning AEDT).Biden described ties with Australia as “strong” and getting “stronger”, while Albanese said the alliance was based on “a faith in freedom and democracy, a belief in opportunity, a determination to build a prosperous and more peaceful world”.However, seven months after Albanese joined Biden and the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, in San Diego to announce the Aukus plans, there remains uncertainty over congressional approvals needed for them to succeed.Aukus will require reforms to the US export control system. Congress will also need to authorise the sale of at least three Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s but some Republicans have raised concerns that will come at the cost of the US’s own needs. Australian-built nuclear-powered submarines are due to enter into service from the 2040s.Standing alongside Albanese on Wednesday, Biden urged Congress to “pass our Aukus legislation this year”.Albanese played down concerns about the deal, saying he regarded the US “as a very reliable partner”.“And I regard the relationship that I have with the president as second to none of the relationships that I have around the world, or indeed domestically, for that matter,” Albanese said.The prime minister said he was “very confident in the discussions that I’ve had with Democrats and Republicans that there is very broad support for the Aukus arrangements”.Albanese said he looked forward to “a constructive dialogue” when he visits China next month, describing such talks as important to build understanding and reduce tensions.Biden and Albanese also discussed the Israel-Hamas conflict. In their joint statement, they said Hamas attacks on Israel “can have no justification, no legitimacy, and must be universally condemned”.While pledging to “support Israel as it defends itself and its people against such atrocities”, the two leaders also called on “all parties to act consistent with the principles of international law and to protect civilians as an utmost priority”.“We are concerned at the humanitarian situation in Gaza and call on all actors to ensure the provision of humanitarian supplies to populations in need,” Biden and Albanese said.“Our two countries support equal measures of dignity, freedom, and self-determination for Israelis and Palestinians alike and we mourn every civilian life lost in this conflict. We continue to support Palestinian aspirations for a state of their own and consider a two-state solution as the best avenue towards a lasting peace.”Albanese announced that Australia would provide an additional $15m in humanitarian assistance for civilians in Gaza. More