Aukus

Subterms

    Latest story

    188 Shares46 Views

    Aukus should expand to other shipbuilding nations, US congressman suggests, as Albanese returns to Australia

    by

    A leading US congressman admits the US must substantially boost its defence manufacturing capacity in order to sell Australia nuclear submarines under Aukus, floating the idea of adding Japan, South Korea or Norway to the pact to help build more ships.Anthony Albanese has returned from Washington DC with Donald Trump’s endorsement of Aukus and a fresh show of support from longtime backers of the military pact in the US congress. Both Republican and Democratic politicians reaffirmed their support to help Australia buy second-hand US nuclear submarines, even as concerns still remain about whether US shipyards – currently not working fast enough to meet the US navy’s own requirements – can produce enough boats to sell to Australia.Congressman Adam Smith, Democratic leader of the House armed services committee, said Aukus was important to help the US meet its “massive needs” in national security, but that the country needed to build more submarines.“I think we’ve got some work to do. I’m confident we can get there, but that’s why the partnership is so important. We have to improve our defence industrial base, we can’t do that on our own,” he told Guardian Australia.Sign up: AU Breaking News email“I hope we can explore partnerships with other nations as well; South Korea, Japan, Norway. They’re all capable shipbuilders. I hope we can grow the Aukus partnership on those goals.”Under the Aukus agreement, Australia will contribute billions to increase US defence industry capacity. Albanese told a breakfast meeting of US congressional leaders that Australia had already sent US$1bn (A$1.6b), with more to come.“There’ll be $1bn on its way before Christmas,” the prime minister said.“And then a further $1bn next year because we understand that we want to uplift your industrial capacity so that we make a contribution for when we purchase your Virginia-class submarines.”Albanese has indicated the US could seek minor updates to the Aukus agreement, after Trump’s naval secretary raised plans to “clarify some of the ambiguity” in the deal.Smith welcomed Trump’s endorsement of Aukus, revealing he and others “were worried some people at the Department of Defense had some reservations”.View image in fullscreen“This is a huge positive, I hope this [Trump] administration will see it through,” he said.“Many of us who have been strong advocates for Aukus have been apprehensive about where the Trump administration would end up. Seeing where they ended up, Albanese seems to have done a very effective job. I’m glad the meeting went well.”Australia, the UK and the US have discussed, formally and informally, cooperation with other nations under the Aukus framework. Japan has been continually nominated as a potential partner under pillar II of the pact, which goes to advanced technological capabilities, while South Korea has also been discussed in that stream.But Smith suggested a potentially wider sense of cooperation with nations outside the Aukus partners.“The discussion is very nascent, it’s just getting started. I’d see it more on shipbuilding and repair than submarines specifically, but those nations are allies of ours,” he said.“Japan was the first that we thought of, but I want personally to be as ambitious as possible in this project and look for partners and allies across the world to help us meet our defence needs.”The Australian defence minister, Richard Marles, was contacted for comment. He said last month during a visit to Japan “we continue to look to areas where we can cooperate with Japan under the banner of Aukus, or more generally, in terms of industrial collaboration, but also innovation.”Concerns over the pace and efficiency of current US shipbuilding have raised worries over whether Australia will be able to buy the Virginia-class submarines as scheduled. The US navy estimates it needs to be building Virginia-class submarines at a rate of about 2.33 a year to have enough boats to sell any to Australia, but as of July was building about 1.13 a year.The US navy estimates it needs to be building Virginia-class submarines at a rate of 2.00 a year just to meet its own defence requirements.At the end of his trip, Albanese said he was pleased by the US support for Aukus.“Ambassador [Kevin] Rudd has done a great job of building support across members of Congress for the Aukus arrangements,” he said.Albanese met members of the Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee during his trip. Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Jim Risch, the Democratic and Republican ranking members respectively, said they hoped “our relationship only continues to grow, most notably with the continuation of the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) agreement”.“Together, we will push back against adversaries like China that threaten us and our allies in the Indo-Pacific,” they said.Michael McCaul, a Republican from Texas who until recently chaired the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Guardian Australia that Aukus “keeps Chairman Xi [Jinping] up at night.” He met Albanese during his visit, calling for the Pillar II arrangement to be expanded to explore cooperation on more technology. More

    More stories

    • 113 Shares139 Views

      in US Politics

      Pentagon review reportedly confirms Aukus submarines pact is safe

      by

      The Aukus submarine deal will proceed as planned after reportedly surviving the Pentagon’s review of the security pact.The Japan-based Nikkei Asia reported the Trump administration would retain the original timeline for the $368bn program, which includes the US selling three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia from 2032.A US Department of Defense official would not confirm the report when contacted by Guardian Australia.“The Aukus initiative is still under review. We have no further Aukus updates to announce at this time,” the official said.Sign up: AU Breaking News emailThe prime minister, Anthony Albanese, acknowledged the review was still under way but was confident Aukus had the support of the US and the UK – the third partner in the pact.“We know that Aukus is in the interests of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States,” Albanese said from Abu Dhabi, the last stop in an overseas trip that has included visits to the two Aukus allies.“It is about a partnership which is in the interest of all three nations which will make peace and security in our region so much stronger.”The review will be wrapped up before Albanese’s first scheduled face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump in the US on 20 October, Nikkei Asia reported.The future of Aukus has been under a cloud since the Pentagon launched an appraisal of the deal to determine if it aligned with Trump’s “America-first” agenda.The review has been conducted by the US under secretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby, who has previously expressed scepticism about any deal that could weaken the US navy.One of the most significant concerns over Aukus in the US is its capacity to spare any nuclear-powered submarines to sell to Australia as it struggles to build enough for its own needs.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThere has also been speculation the US has wanted clarity from Australia about how it respond in a potential US-China war over Taiwan.The federal government has already handed over $1.6bn to the US to support America’s shipbuilding capacity, with delivery of the first Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the early 2030s contingent on the US ramping up production.Australia’s government has never publicly expressed concern about the Pentagon review, arguing that it was standard procedure for a new administration to examine such an agreement, just as the UK did after a change of government.Earlier on Tuesday, Australia’s defence minister, Richard Marles, would not pre-empt the outcome of the Pentagon review but again expressed confidence that the deal was secure.“Aukus is happening – that’s not in question,” the acting prime minister told ABC Melbourne on Tuesday morning.“We’re very confident about the deal and we’ve been saying that all the way through, as we have also been saying that we welcome this review and will participate in it,” Marles said on Tuesday.“I’ve repeatedly said Aukus is going well; Aukus is happening at a pace; it is meeting all the milestones that it’s meant to be meeting and we are confident about this being the pathway for Australia acquiring its future submarine capability.”The US has also been pushing Australia to raise its overall defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, up from its current level of roughly 2%.Albanese has publicly resisted that pressure, insisting Australia will determine the nature and volume of its military spending.The federal government has made several new defence spending commitments while the review was under way, including $12bn to upgrade a Western Australian shipyard that will be used by the Aukus submarines.Albanese and Marles have confirmed the US navy will be able to use the Henderson defence precinct to dock and maintain its own ships. More

    • 138 Shares159 Views

      in US Politics

      Australian politicians rally behind ABC journalist after clash with Donald Trump

      by

      Australia’s politicians have thrown their support behind an ABC journalist who was berated by Donald Trump after asking questions about the US president’s personal business dealings in Washington DC on Tuesday.Trump was answering questions on the White House lawn when he clashed with the ABC’s Americas editor, John Lyons, who said he was reporting for Four Corners.The exchange also appeared to include Trump’s first confirmation he would meet Anthony Albanese for their first face-to-face talks, as part of the PM’s visit to the UN general assembly next week.Lyons asked Trump how much wealthier he had become since returning to the Oval Office for his second term in January, noting that he was regarded as the wealthiest man to occupy the White House.Sign up: AU Breaking News email“I don’t know,” Trump said, explaining that his children were responsible for the family business, the Trump Organization.“But most of the deals that I’ve made were made before,” he said. “This is what I’ve done for a life. I’ve built buildings.”He pointed to the site of a grand ballroom planned for the White House.Lyons then asked whether it was appropriate for a US president to be conducting personal business while in office. “I’m really not, my kids are running the business,” Trump said before asking Lyons where he was from.Trump then accused Lyons of “hurting Australia” with the line of questioning. “In my opinion, you are hurting Australia very much right now. And they want to get along with me.“You know, your leader is coming over to see me very soon. I’m going to tell him about you. You set a very bad tone.“You can set a nicer tone,” Trump said, before telling Lyons: “Quiet.”Australia’s treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said Lyons was “just doing his job”.“I respect the ABC and I respect its independence and that extends to not second-guessing the questions asked legitimately by journalists,” he said.Lyons told the ABC his questions had been “perfectly normal,” describing them as fair, based on research and not asked in an abusive fashion.“If we’ve reached the point where asking those sort of questions prevents you from going into the White House, then I think it’s a very dark day,” he said. “I’ve still got to brace myself for what happens when he tells on me.”David Pocock, an independent senator, called for stronger defences of press freedom and mocked Trump.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“That doesn’t include the leader of another country thinking he can report journos to our PM for asking hard questions,” he posted on X.The Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young said Trump was trying to bully the media and Australia, and demanded Albanese stand up to criticism of Australian journalists.The Liberal senator Sarah Henderson called for the ABC to explain Lyons’ line of questioning, given the importance of trade, defence and national security matters to the Australia-US relationship. Bridget McKenzie, a Nationals frontbencher, defended Lyons.“There’s nothing wrong with journalists asking tough questions,” McKenzie said.Albanese has been seeking a meeting with Trump since the pair’s first talks were abruptly cancelled at the G7 summit in Canada in June. His schedule for the upcoming visit to New York is yet to be confirmed but Australian officials are trying to lock in a time.This week Albanese said he would see Trump at the meeting of world leaders in New York, as well at upcoming international summits.“We’ll see each other in New York,” the prime minister said. “He is hosting a reception on Tuesday night of next week. As well, we’ll see each other at various forums that are taking place between now and the end of the year. It’s summit season.”The meeting is expected to cover urgent issues in the bilateral relationship, including the Pentagon’s review of the Aukus nuclear submarines agreement and Trump’s demands that Australia spend more on defence.Trump and senior US officials have privately urged Australia to commit to spending as much as 3.5% of GDP on defence, a potential $30bn annual increase to the defence spend of about $59bn.The Aukus review – which is being led by the undersecretary of defence and Aukus sceptic, Elbridge Colby – is due to be completed around November. Australia has sent about $1.6bn to the US as part of the agreement. More

    • 150 Shares189 Views

      in US Politics

      Australia won’t receive Aukus nuclear submarines unless US doubles shipbuilding, admiral warns

      by

      The US cannot sell any Virginia-class nuclear submarines to Australia without doubling its production rate, because it is making too few for its own defence, the navy’s nominee for chief of operations has told Congress.There are “no magic beans” to boosting the US’s sclerotic shipbuilding capacity, Admiral Daryl Caudle said in frank evidence before a Senate committee.The US’s submarine fleet numbers are a quarter below their target, US government figures show, and the country is producing boats at just over half the rate it needs to service its own defence requirements.Testifying before the Senate Committee on Armed Services as part of his confirmation process to serve as the next chief of naval operations, Caudle lauded Royal Australian Navy sailors as “incredible submariners”, but said the US would not be able to sell them any boats – as committed under the Aukus pact – without a “100% improvement” on shipbuilding rates.The US Navy estimates it needs to be building Virginia-class submarines at a rate of 2.00 a year to meet its own defence requirements, and about 2.33 to have enough boats to sell any to Australia. It is currently building Virginia-class submarines at a rate of about 1.13 a year, senior admirals say.“Australia’s ability to conduct undersea warfare is not in question,” Caudle said, “but as you know the delivery pace is not what it needs to be to make good on the pillar one of the Aukus agreement which is currently under review by our defence department”.Caudle said efficiency gains or marginal improvements would not be sufficient to “make good on the actual pact that we made with the UK and Australia, which is … around 2.2 to 2.3 Virginia-class submarines per year”.“That is going to require a transformational improvement; not a 10% improvement, not a 20% improvement but a 100% improvement,” he said.Sign up: AU Breaking News emailUnder pillar one of the Aukus agreement, Australia is scheduled to buy between three and five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US, starting in 2032.The UK will build the first Aukus-class submarine for its navy by “the late 2030s”. The first Australian-built Aukus boat will be in the water “in the early 2040s”. Aukus is forecast to cost Australia up to $368bn over 30 years.US goodwill towards Australia, or the import of the US-alliance, would be irrelevant to any decision to sell submarines: Aukus legislation prohibits the US selling Australia any submarine if that would weaken US naval strength.Australia has already paid $1.6bn out of an expected total of $4.7bn (US$3bn) to help the US boost its flagging shipbuilding industry.But the US itself has been pouring money into its shipbuilding yards, without noticeable effect.A joint statement on “the state of nuclear shipbuilding” issued by three rear admirals in April noted that while Congress had committed an additional US$5.7bn to lift wages and shipyard productivity, “we have not observed the needed and expected ramp-up in Columbia-class and Virginia-class submarine production rates necessary”.Caudle, himself a career submariner, said the US would need “creativity, ingenuity, and some outsourcing improvements” if it were to meet its shipbuilding demands and produce 2.3 Virginia-class vessels a year.“There are no magic beans to that,” he told the Senate hearing. “There’s nothing that’s just going to make that happen. So the solution space has got to open up.”‘Why is there no plan B?’The former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who first reported on Caudle’s testimony to the Senate, told the Guardian that there was “no shortage of goodwill towards Australia” from the US in relation to Aukus, but the realities of a shortfall of submarines meant there was a “very, very high” probability that Virginia-class submarines would never arrive under Australian control.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTurnbull said the language coming from US naval experts was “framing expectations realistically”, essentially saying that, without dramatic reform, the US could not sell any of its Virginia-class boats. With the Collins class nearing the end of their service lives, and the Aukus submarine design and build facing delays in the UK, Australia could be left without any submarine capability for a decade, potentially two, Turnbull argued.“The risk of us not getting any Virginia-class submarines is – objectively – very, very high. The real question is why is the government not acknowledging that … and why is there no plan B? What are they doing to acquire alternative capabilities in the event of the Virginias not arriving?”Turnbull – who, as prime minister, had signed the diesel-electric submarine deal with French giant Naval that was unilaterally abandoned in favour of the Aukus agreement in 2021 – argued the Australian government, parliament and media had failed to properly interrogate the Aukus deal.“When you compare the candour and the detail of the disclosure that the US Congress gets from the Department of the Navy, and the fluff we get here, it’s a disgrace. Our parliament has the most at stake, but is the least curious, and the least informed.On Friday, the defence minister, Richard Marles, told reporters in Sydney “work on Aukus continues apace”.“We continue to work very closely … with the United States in progressing the optimal pathway to Australia acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine capability,” he said.“In respect of the production and maintenance schedule in the United States, we continue to make our financial contributions to that industrial base.”Marles cited the $1.6bn paid to the US to boost its shipbuilding industry already this year, with further payments to come, and said that 120 Australian tradespeople were currently working on sustaining Virginia-class submarines in Pearl Harbor.“All of that work continues and we are really confident that the production rates will be raised in America, which is very much part of the ambition of Aukus.”The Guardian put a series of questions to Marles’s office about Caudle’s Senate testimony. More

    • 188 Shares109 Views

      in US Politics

      US accuses Australia of breaking ‘verbal commitment’ on aluminium exports as Trump weighs tariffs exemption

      by

      Donald Trump has called Australia’s prime minister a “very fine man” and said he would give “great consideration” to exempting the country from his new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, after a phone call between the two leaders.It came after comments on Tuesday from the US president that there would be no exceptions or exemptions on the tariffs, which will start on 12 March unless Anthony Albanese can secure an exemption.The official proclamation to impose the aluminium tariff appeared to explain why Australia was not exempted from the outset, with the US accusing Australia of breaking a “verbal commitment” to limit aluminium exports.

      Sign up for Guardian Australia’s breaking news email
      The new proclamation read: “The volume of U.S. imports of primary aluminum from Australia has also surged and in 2024 was approximately 103% higher than the average volume for 2015 through 2017. Australia has disregarded its verbal commitment to voluntarily restrain its aluminum exports to a reasonable level.”Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull negotiated a carve out from steel and aluminium tariffs during Trump’s first term.Asked about the proclamation on Tuesday night, the deputy prime minister and defence minister, Richard Marles, told ABC’s 7.30: “I can’t speak for the former government, in terms of what it did or didn’t do … but in the discussion that was had today, in the president’s own press conference, having signed the executive order, he made clear that Australian exemptions to this order would be under active consideration. And that’s where this is now at.”Earlier on Tuesday, Albanese said his second call with Trump had been a “very positive and constructive discussion”, which canvassed the Aukus defence pact, critical minerals and foreign investment between the two countries.Albanese said he had also made the case for Australia to be exempted from tariffs and was hopeful of such an outcome.“If you have a look at what we’ve achieved already, it’s been a tremendous start to the relationship,” Albanese told a press conference in Parliament House.Minutes later, the White House announced that the president was signing executive orders to place a 25% tariff on the imports, stepping up a long-promised trade war.Trump initially said the tariffs would be imposed without exceptions but then confirmed he was giving “great consideration” to an Australian carve-out.Asked about his call with Albanese, Trump called the Australian leader “a very fine man” and noted the US trade surplus with Australia.“We have a surplus with Australia, one of the few … I told him that [exemptions] is something we will give great consideration,” Trump said.The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, also publicly urged the Trump administration to exempt Australia from tariffs, claiming any move to the contrary would “damage the relationship” between the two countries.“Tariffs are not warranted against Australia because we have a trade surplus,” he said.Australian politicians were rocked on Monday when Trump told reporters in the US that he planned to announce new tariffs on all steel and aluminium arriving in America.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Labor government been bracing for such a decision after Trump levelled similar tariffs in his first term, with senior ministers and officials working behind the scenes for some time to secure exemptions like those secured by the then-Coalition government after months of negotiations in 2018.“Our aluminium is a critical input for manufacturing in the United States,” Albanese said on Tuesday after his call with Trump. “Our steel and aluminium are both key inputs for the US-Australia defence industries in both of our countries.“I presented Australia’s case for an exemption and we agreed on wording to say publicly, which is that the US president agreed that an exemption was under consideration in the interests of both of our countries.”Albanese would not reveal more about the process by which the exemption would be considered, the timeline by which a decision would be reached, or what Australia would do if the exemption was ultimately rejected. He said he would not speak for Trump but again referred warmly to the Australia-US relationship.“What I envisage is continuing to act to respond diplomatically,” he said. “That’s how you get things done. My government’s got a record of getting things done in Australia’s national interest. I’ll continue to do so.”A US congressman has hit out at any attempt to slap tariffs on Australian products.Joe Courtney, a Democratic politician and co-chair of the Friends of Australia Caucus,, noted that Australia had just this week begun sending payments to Washington as part of the Aukus pact to help bolster the US submarine construction program.“What we’re seeing is a completely needless, almost insult to the people of Australia by raising tariffs of Australian products coming into this country,” Courtney said.The shadow trade minister, Kevin Hogan, suggested that the government should “reach out to whoever may help” Australia secure exemptions, including the former Coalition politicians Scott Morrison and Joe Hockey.“I encourage the prime minister and indeed ambassador [Kevin] Rudd to talk to people like Morrison, people like Hockey,” he told the ABC. “We had a precedent when we got an exemption, they should be using those resources.” More

    • 263 Shares99 Views

      in US Politics

      The latest US presidential twist throws the race wide open – but what could it mean for Australia? | Arthur Sinodinos

      by

      The 2024 US presidential election is proof that in America nothing succeeds like excess.The standing down of President Biden is just the latest twist in this extraordinary race – and could be the circuit breaker the Democrats are looking for. It removes age as an issue for them and potentially refocuses the campaign, with Kamala Harris the standard bearer.She is within striking distance of Trump in national polls and involves the least disruptive transition to the Democrat campaign. Trump may seek to ridicule ‘laughing’ Kamala but that could backfire with voters, particularly women. She will need a running mate who can appeal in the swing states and has a compelling personal story. This will inject new energy into the campaign.Undoubtedly, Trump has momentum. The former president’s acceptance speech at the RNC did not chart a new policy direction or presage a kinder, gentler politics. That is not what fuels the Maga engine. Trump has harnessed the anger of those Americans who feel like outsiders in their own country, threatened by rapid change, identity politics and left behind by the widening of income and wealth inequalities.The selection of JD Vance, a smart and articulate convert to Maga is a signal that Trump is not looking to appeal to the ever-shrinking pool of moderates or independents. In Trump’s eyes, Maga is here to stay, and Vance is its tribune.The Democrats’ best strategy now is to turn the election into a referendum on Trump’s negatives, which they define as the chaos of his first term and threat to American institutions. The departure of President Biden provides that opportunity.US elections are determined by turnout. The Maga base is energised by Trump’s ‘resurrection’. Democrats will now have to pick themselves off the floor and push the buttons of various sections of the electorate to motivate turnout.In many ways, this is now a race between Vance and Harris, who is the most likely Democrat nominee. The age issue has been turned on its head. Vance’s views come into focus now that he is only a heartbeat away from the presidency.Many women will vote to send a message on restriction of abortion rights. Vance’s strong views on restricting abortion rights provide a perfect foil for this argument. Harris is best placed to run that argument. Trump has soft-pedalled on the issue in recognition of its lethality to his campaign.What does this mean for Australia and the rest of the world? Do not expect much change in international economic policy from either side of politics.Trump upended trade policy in 2016, forcing Hillary Clinton to disown her administration’s centrepiece trade strategy for the Indo-Pacific, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which dealt a major blow to the US pivot to the region. Since then, market access agreements have been off the table for both sides of politics with more interest in how to tilt the playing field in favour of US firms by imposing higher labour and environmental costs on foreign competitors.Covid 19 and the technological cold war with China are also reshaping industrial supply chains with more reshoring and friend-shoring in the offing. The Aukus capability pact and the Quad focus on critical and emerging tech are leading examples of this trend. Both Trump and a reelected Democrat administration will double down on this, with perhaps more onshoring in Trump’s case.One major point of difference is climate change policy and international cooperation. Trump is likely to again withdraw from the Paris agreement and promises to drill for more oil from day one, further extending America’s energy independence and fossil fuel exports. His industry policy is lower energy costs and less regulation to attract more onshoring.Trump’s tech policy is unclear. He flip-flopped on the banning of TikTok. He is courting the Silicon Valley titans, who are turning Maga in the hope of less tax on capital and no more regulation. Trump’s main beef with big tech is that it restricts free speech (his speech) on social media. Vance is a fan of support for little tech in opposition to big tech, and this appeals to his venture capitalist backers.The Trump mantra of ‘no more wars’ appeals to an electorate exhausted by the blood and treasure expended in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is likely he will follow through on solving Ukraine in one day (by effectively abandoning it), he is encouraging Israel to ‘finish the job’ in Gaza as soon as possible (that is, not on his watch) and the signal to China on Taiwan is very mixed. However, many Republicans are ardent supporters of Taiwan and its right to exist. This could put a brake on Trump sacrificing Taiwan on the altar of a grand bargain with China on trade.Trump is ahead now but we saw over the weekend how quickly things can change. As they used to say on World Championship Wrestling, anything can happen – and probably will.

      Arthur Sinodinos is a former Australian ambassador to the US. He is the partner and chair of The Asia Group’s Australia practice and was a former minister for industry, innovation and science More

    • 200 Shares169 Views

      in US Politics

      The Guardian view on Putin and Kim: an alarming new pact needs close attention | Editorial

      by

      A shiny, sanctions-busting Russian limousine for Kim Jong-un. A fawning, rapturous reception for Vladimir Putin. These grand gestures may be welcomed by the North Korean and Russian leaders, but are intended as much for their global audience as for each other. The real prize is the strategic partnership treaty that they signed during Mr Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang since 2000. The question is what it will mean in practical terms.The relationship has been reinvigorated by events outside Asia, but hopes of containing it lie within the region. The proximate cause is evidently Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: an isolated and impoverished Pyongyang is already believed to have supplied millions of artillery shells in return for cheap oil, food and other sorely needed goods. Russia might also benefit from North Korean manpower, though much more likely for labour than combat.Further back lies Donald Trump’s disastrous wooing and dismissal of Mr Kim. Entirely predictably, by handing him a top-level summit without any realistic strategy to improve relations in the long term, the then president ensured Mr Kim gave up on improving relations with the US and looked elsewhere. He also prompted Mr Putin and Xi Jinping, who had kept Mr Kim at a distance, to hug him closer.The revival of a Soviet-era pledge of mutual support against “aggression” sounds primarily symbolic given North Korea’s nuclear prowess. More disturbing is Mr Putin’s remark that the partnership could include “military technical cooperation”. US intelligence officials have said that they believe Russia is providing nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology, though it is likely to extract a high price for such expertise and to have mixed feelings about North Korea’s advances. At a minimum, Russia – which signed up to sanctions in the Obama years – is now obstructing diplomatic action to restrain North Korea.The west has long feared a stronger relationship between Pyongyang, Moscow and Beijing. The launch of the Australian, UK and US (Aukus) security pact, a reaction to China’s growing forcefulness in the Asia-Pacific region, has in turn raised Beijing’s hackles. But China does not regard the others as peers and does not want to be seen as part of a trilateral axis with two pariah states, hence the lack of a Beijing stop on Mr Putin’s Asian tour itinerary. It would also like to retain primacy in managing North Korea, and to limit its weapons development. It does not want the US to become more active in the region and is concerned that it is growing closer to Japan and South Korea, which are also increasing their defence capabilities. Mr Kim’s shift from the long-held commitment to unification with the South to stressing hostility has not helped.South Korea also said explicitly that it will consider sending arms to Ukraine in reaction to the Russian-North Korean deal, spelling out the message to Moscow. Until now, Seoul has limited direct support to non-lethal supplies, though it has signed hefty arms deals with allies of Kyiv. Russia, which has also ramped up its own arms manufacturing at speed, may in the longer term seek to rekindle relations with South Korea and Japan anyway; their large economies compare strikingly to the limited attractions of North Korea. That too offers hope that this deal could be constrained both in extent and duration. The danger is how much damage is caused in the meantime. More

    • 200 Shares129 Views

      in Elections

      Cameron: Aukus and Nato must be in ‘best possible shape’ before potential Trump win – video

      by

      The UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, has suggested the Aukus pact and Nato alliance must get into the best possible shape to increase their chances of surviving Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House. Speaking after high-level talks in Australia, Cameron was careful to avoid criticising the former US president and presumptive Republican nominee for 2024, saying it was ‘up to America who they choose as their president’. The comments were in response to a question about whether the election of Trump in November would affect the Aukus agreement that was sealed with the Biden administration in March last year More