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      in US Politics

      With Donald Trump the Republican talisman again, should America’s allies plan for the worst? | Bruce Wolpe

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      The question from the Finnish journalist to President Biden at last month’s US-Nordic leaders’ summit in Helsinki was direct: “What actions will you take to assure Finland that the US will remain a reliable Nato partner for decades to come?”Biden replied: “I absolutely guarantee it. There is no question. There’s overwhelming support from the American people,” before adding the caveat: “You know, no one can guarantee the future, but this is the best bet anyone could make … As sure as anything can possibly be said about American foreign policy, we will stay connected to Nato – connected to Nato, beginning, middle and end.”In an interview a few weeks earlier, Richard Haass, who recently stepped down as president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said that the most serious threat to the security of the world right now was the United States. “It’s us,” he told Peter Baker of the New York Times. “I should have a nickel for every non-American, every foreign leader who said to me, ‘I don’t know what’s the norm and what’s the exception any more. Is the Biden administration a return to the America I took for granted and Trump will be a historical blip? Or is Biden the exception and Trump and Trumpism are the new America?’”These issues are beginning to hit home in Australia and with other US allies. Many are already seeing in 2024 a reprise of the successive shocks of 2016 – the Brexit vote in June as a precursor to the upheaval heralded by Trump’s election in November – and what ensued during Trump’s four years in office. We know from the litany of explosive books, from veteran journalist Bob Woodward to Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton and so many others in between, what Trump is capable of – and that he would approach a second term with vengeance uppermost in his mind against those who crossed him or stood in his way. Today, leaders of the world’s democracies at least have the benefit of over-the-horizon political radar of what may be coming, given the long lead time of Trump’s all-so-visible and unrelenting campaign to regain power.With respect to my country, Australia, the deep engagement with the US began on the western front in the first world war. Australia has supported American troops in numerous wars the US has waged since then. The Anzus treaty is in its 71st year and “a hundred years of mateship” has been richly celebrated. It is safe to say that Australia’s alliance with the US is the least troubled of any bilateral relationship the US has with other countries, including Israel, Canada and the UK. Australia is an integral part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad) with India, Japan and the US. The Aukus agreement brings the US together with the UK and Australia in a strategic partnership to promote stability and security in the Asia Pacific region.But what happens to this web of ties if Trump returns to the presidency? Trumpism has four pillars that he wields as swords. America first, to ensure that US interests are always paramount in any foreign policy and military decision taken. Isolationism, where the default position is to end American commitments overseas and to bring US forces home. Protectionism, expressed through trade and tariff wars with the goal of securing trade surpluses for the US with all its trading partners, from China to Canada to Mexico to Europe and back across all of Asia. And nativism, to build walls on America’s southern border and close its doors to migrants seeking the American dream.In a second term, he will pursue these policies even harder. Trump learned immense lessons from his first four years about who, in the US and around the world, frustrated his policy objectives and how they could be crushed and punished to help him win more victories in his second term. What happens if Trump cripples, perhaps even works deliberately to destroy, Nato and the UN, begins a trade war with the EU, executes accommodations with Putin and Russia over Ukraine, surrenders Taiwan to China and withdraws troops and naval forces from the Asia Pacific region?At this granular level, each leader of a state around the globe allied with the US faces the daunting issue of how to manage all this incoming from Trump should he return to the Oval Office. How can you best deal with a hostile partner? How do those western countries allied with the US today realign their policies to ensure their security tomorrow?But these questions also reveal a deeper issue with respect to the ties that bind so many democracies around the world with the US. For example, can Australia – should Australia – continue its alliance with the US if the US in 2025 may no longer be the United States that has existed for nearly 250 years?Australia’s alliance is with a country that stands for freedom; democracy; liberty; human and civil rights; and the rule of law. What happens if the struggle for democracy and the soul of America fails in 2025? What if President Trump declares martial law, if the military is deployed to cities across the country to put down protests and restore law and order? What if Trump disobeys court orders, including from the supreme court, to cease and desist his executive actions? What if he ignores laws passed by Congress, orders the detention and imprisonment of his political enemies, has journalists arrested and jailed, and shuts down certain media outlets? What if he interferes with elections held in states across the country and for Congress?If Trump dismantles American democracy, America will no longer be populated by united states. It will be bitterly divided. There will be immense unrest. The country will no longer be the United States.Trump redux therefore poses an existential question: how could Australia remain allied with a country that has discarded the fundamental values of democracy that have bound these two nations together? How can Australia be allied with a country that is drifting towards autocracy?And it’s not just Australia. Every country strategically tied to the US will need to contemplate the consequences of Trump’s campaign for the presidency.It is time to face up to this question. It is better for America’s allies to be proactive in 2024 in planning for such a catastrophic upheaval in global politics than to be reactive in 2025.As long as Trump is within reach of the presidency, this question is a clear and present danger to every democratic country that today stands proudly with the US.
      Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He is author of Trump’s Australia (Allen & Unwin, 2023) More

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      in US Politics

      Trump’s potential return to White House up to American people, says Kevin Rudd

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      The Australian ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, says it is up to the American people whether Donald Trump returns to the White House – an outcome he previously said would “fray” support for the US alliance in Australia.The former Australian prime minister said on Wednesday that US politics was “a complex beast” and he was focused on keeping on good terms with both sides of the aisle, including former Trump officials.Rudd said he was also focused on securing US legislation to enable tech collaboration under the Aukus pact, but likened it to “a complex process of sausage-making”.Rudd is well connected in Washington and is close to senior figures in the Biden administration and establishment Republicans, but has previously been an outspoken critic of Trump.Prior to his appointment as ambassador, which took effect earlier this year, Rudd called Trump “the most destructive president in history”.Rudd told Guardian Australia before the 2020 election that if Trump were re-elected, “the overall fabric of domestic political support in this country and among other American allies around the world will begin to more fundamentally fray”.Rudd had a more diplomatic message when he spoke to reporters outside Old Parliament House in Canberra on Wednesday.Asked what preparations he was making for the possibility of another Trump administration, Rudd said both the US and Australia were “robust democracies”.
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      Since taking up the diplomatic posting, Rudd said he had “worked comfortably and seamlessly” with House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, and Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell.Rudd said he had also spoken with Republican House and Senate leaders from across the US congressional system “and also with former members of the Trump administration from last time round”.“That’s our job as an embassy and that’s my job as ambassador. What the good burghers [people] of the United States choose to do in their own electoral process is a matter for them – from which, thankfully, Australian ambassadors are immune from comment.”Rudd’s comment was an adaptation of “the good burghers of Griffith” – a phrase he had previously used in reference to the voters in the electorate he previously held in the Australian parliament.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionDespite Trump facing multiple indictments, including over the attempt to overturn the 2020 election results, the former president remains the frontrunner to secure the Republican nomination for the 2024 election.Although it remains very early in the cycle, the current general election polling suggests Joe Biden and Trump are closely matched.Rudd expressed confidence in the prospect of passing US legislation to enable both elements of the Aukus: Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines and collaboration on other advanced defence technology.After speaking with committee chairs and ranking members in the US Senate and Congress, Rudd said Aukus enjoyed “quite a remarkable level of bipartisan support” but there would always be “pretty colourful debate”.Republicans have raised concerns the US could fall short on its own needs when selling Australia at least three Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s, but Rudd said it was normal for elected members to reflect “their own industry policy concerns and their own constituency concerns”.Australia has already earmarked about $3bn over the next four years to boost the submarine sustainment and production capacity of the US and the UK.Most of this is expected to go to the US, and Rudd played down the idea Australia would be asked to tip in more funds.“No one that I’ve met in the United States has challenged what we’re proposing to do and the impact of what we ourselves will do in terms of adding to their industrial capacity,” he said.Hinting the US may make further investments in its own submarine industrial base, Rudd predicted the issue would be resolved through negotiations “between the administration and relevant senators”.Rudd said he would continue to convey the Australian government’s position that the case against the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange had “gone on for too long”, but likely behind the scenes “in order to maximise our prospects”.Rudd was speaking on his way into a Tech Council of Australia event, where he said Australia and the US were serious about collaborating on renewable energy and critical minerals. More

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      in US Politics

      Australian minister Clare O’Neil calls Donald Trump Jr ‘a big baby’ after speaking tour is postponed

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      Australia’s home affairs minister, Clare O’Neil, has called Donald Trump Jr “a big baby” after his tour of the country was postponed.Trump Jr’s promoter blamed “cancel culture”, even though he was granted a visa to travel to Australia.He was scheduled to speak in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne, with the first of the events to be held on Sunday 9 July.On Wednesday, Trump Jr’s promoter, Turning Point Australia, said in a Facebook post that “due to unforeseen circumstances” his appearances in the country would be postponed.Turning Point Australia wrote: “It seems America isn’t the only country that makes it difficult for the Trumps. Hold on to your tickets, this is a short delay nothing more #CancelCulture.”In a separate statement, the promoter said it had been forced to postpone the tour due to a visa delay.“The visa, which has now been issued, was only received late afternoon of Wednesday 5 July, only 24 hours before Donald Trump Jr was set to board a flight to Sydney.”
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      Guardian Australian understands Trump Jr applied for a visa two weeks ago and the turnaround time is normally a fortnight.The Australian immigration department would not comment on the matter on Wednesday but on Thursday O’Neil took to Twitter.“Geez, Donald Trump Jr is a bit of a sore loser. His dad lost an election fair and square – but he says it was stolen. Now he’s trying to blame the Australian government for his poor ticket sales and cancelled tour,” the Labor minister wrote.“Donald Trump Jr has been given a visa to come to Australia. He didn’t get cancelled. He’s just a big baby, who isn’t very popular.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTurning Point Australia said 8,000 tickets had already been sold across the three states, with all VIP tickets – priced as high as $2,500 – selling out in the first week of the tour announcement.“Ticket holders are urged to hold on to their tickets, with details of the rescheduled date to be confirmed in the coming days,” a post on the company’s website said.A spokesperson said on Thursday: “Turning Point Australia is not going to dignify the minister’s tweets with a comment. Suffice to say she is entitled to her opinion and freedom of speech no matter how idiotic.”Turning Point Australia and Donald Trump Jr were approached for comment. More

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      in Elections

      Biden speaks of ‘devastating’ effect of debt limit failure as he cuts short Asia tour – video

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      The US president has decided to cancel an upcoming visit to Australia and Papua New Guinea to focus on the debt limit standoff at home. Joe Biden had been due to address the Australian parliament and was also expected to meet with other leaders of the Quad. The US president said failure on debt negotiations would spark a recession and quoted Moody’s as saying 8 million Americans would lose their jobs More

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      in US Politics

      Joe Biden cancels Australian visit amid US domestic debt deadlock

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      President Joe Biden has cancelled a visit to Australia, the second leg of his upcoming Asia trip, due to the slow-motion crisis building in Washington over the US debt ceiling.Biden is to attend a three-day summit of G7 leaders that starts on Friday in Hiroshima, Japan, and will return to the US on Sunday.He had been scheduled to make a brief, historic stop in Papua New Guinea, then travel to Australia for a meeting of the Japan, Australia, India and US grouping known as the Quad countries.Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said Biden had called him on Wednesday morning with the news.“The president apologised that he would now have to postpone this visit because of the unfolding difficulties he is facing in his negotiations with the US Congress over the US Government debt ceiling,” he said.“These negotiations are scheduled to enter their critical and concluding phase during the last week of May. Regrettably, this conflicts with the President’s visits to Sydney and Canberra – including the Quad Summit scheduled for 24 May.”They would reschedule his visit to Australia at the earliest opportunity, Albanese said. “I also look forward to visiting Washington later this year for a state visit to the United States.”Australia was talking to the leaders of Japan and India about their travel plans, he said. “In the meantime, I look forward to meeting with both prime ministers and the president at the G7 Summit in Hiroshima on 20-21 May.”John Kirby, the White House national security spokesperson, told reporters earlier on Tuesday that Australian stop was being re-evaluated.Biden had been due to address the Australian parliament, as the first US president in nearly 10 years to speak to a joint session of MPs and senators in Canberra.Officials had previously confirmed that Biden would make the speech on Tuesday 23 May, the day before he attended the Quad summit in Sydney.“These leaders, all leaders of democracies … they know that our ability to pay our debts is a key part of US credibility and leadership around the world,” Kirby said. “And so they understand that the president also has to focus on making sure that we don’t default.”The treasury department has estimated that the US will go into a crippling default as early as 1 June if Congress does not lift the debt ceiling. More

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      in US Politics

      TikTok must divest itself of Chinese ownership or face ban, FCC commissioner tells Australian inquiry

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      TikTok will either need to divest itself from Chinese ownership or face a ban in the United States, according to the commissioner of the US federal communications commission, Brendan Carr, who accused the company of “gaslighting” the public on surveillance concerns.Appearing before the Australian Senate inquiry into foreign influence through social media, the Trump appointee said concern about TikTok in the US was “broad and deep”, and crossed party lines.Following the United Kingdom, Australia and other countries’ ban of the app from government devices, the US is considering a full ban nationally. Legislation enacting a statewide ban was recently passed in Montana.TikTok has attempted to head off any potential ban by moving US user data to third-party servers within the country. It is also allowing its source code to be scrutinised by US tech firm Oracle, which will screen TikTok app updates.Carr told the committee while that was ultimately an issue being handled by the US Treasury department, there was a common view among Democrats and Republicans that the data could not be prevented from being accessed by Chinese government officials under the 2017 national security law.Carr, the most senior Republican member on the FCC, said only an outright ban of the app in the United States or removing all corporate ties to China would be acceptable.“Ultimately, I think some sort of … legislation that imposes a ban or a genuine divestiture is the way forward right now,” he said.“The argument that somehow TikTok is going to stand up to the CCP is belied by their inability to do it at any point in time publicly. For instance, when asked in US media interviews, whether they acknowledge the existence of the Uyghur genocide, their official on TV refused to address it.”Carr said that a Project Texas plan might work for other Chinese companies, but TikTok’s actions to date meant there was no trust for the United States.“We’ve had this years-long approach that strikes me is nothing short of a gaslighting in terms of their misrepresentations,” he said.A spokesperson for TikTok said divestment wouldn’t solve the problem if national security is the objective.“A change in ownership would not impose any new restrictions on data flows or access. The best way to address concerns about national security is with the transparent, US-based protection of US user data and systems, with robust third-party monitoring, vetting, and verification, which we are already implementing.”The Australian government has announced no plans beyond the ban of TikTok from government devices, but the Coalition is likely to push the Labor government for more restrictions on the app.The chair of the inquiry and shadow home affairs minister, senator James Paterson, opened the hearing by saying that the inquiry would serve as a starting point on making Australians a harder target for foreign interference.“We cannot allow foreign authoritarian regimes to have unfettered access to the devices of millions of Australians and the powerful opportunity that offers them to influence our democracy,” he said. “The work starts today to make us a harder target against the threat of cyber enabled foreign interference.”TikTok this week issued a factcheck on claims made about the app, and denied that Australian user data could be accessed in China.The inquiry is holding initial hearings on Thursday and Friday, and is due to report back to parliament in August. More

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      in Elections

      Lachlan Murdoch knew Fox News claim of stolen US election was false, Crikey will argue in defamation trial

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      Lachlan Murdoch allowed Fox News hosts to peddle the claim that the US presidential election was stolen from Donald Trump despite knowing it was false, Crikey will argue in a defence of contextual truth in its upcoming defamation trial.The 36-page defence, which has been filed by the Crikey publisher, Private Media, in the federal court ahead of an October trial, substantially relies upon events in the US, where Dominion brought a $1.6bn defamation suit against the media company for spreading election lies.Crikey’s defence alleges Murdoch “closely monitored how Fox News Network handled reporting on the election”, according to his Dominion deposition, and that he was “generally aware of the allegations made by Sidney Powell on the Fox News Network at the time they were being made, which were to the effect that the 2020 US presidential election was fraudulently stolen from Mr Trump”.The US jury trial, set to begin on 17 April, centres on whether Fox News knowingly broadcast false claims about Dominion equipment as Trump and his allies sought to overturn the 2020 election.Justice Michael Wigney granted Crikey additional time to add the contextual truth defence on top of its already pleaded defences of public interest and qualified privilege.The defamation proceedings against the independent Australian news site were launched last year over an article published in June that referred to the Murdoch family as an “unindicted co-conspirator” in the US Capitol attack.
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      The expanded defence includes the recent admission by Rupert Murdoch that Fox News hosts endorsed Trump’s false claims.“Lachlan Murdoch is morally and ethically culpable for the illegal January 6 attack because Fox News, under his control and management, promoted and peddled Trump’s lie of the stolen election despite Lachlan Murdoch knowing it was false,” the Crikey defence says.“Lachlan Murdoch’s unethical and reprehensible conduct in allowing Fox News to promote and peddle Trump’s lie of the stolen election, despite Lachlan Murdoch knowing it was false, makes him morally and ethically culpable for the illegal January 6 attack.”Murdoch’s barrister, Sue Chrysanthou SC, indicated in an earlier hearing she would apply to strike out the contextual truth defence, which she described as vague.“This defence is not rational, it is not arguable, it’s a waste of everyone’s time and it serves no legitimate end in the litigation,” the barrister said.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionShe accused Crikey of including masses of material from the Dominion case in the Australian defamation lawsuit purely as part of its “Lachlan Murdoch campaign”, which she alleges is an attempt to raise funds and increase subscriptions on the back of the lawsuit.Murdoch’s attempt to split the trial and have the imputations determined first was dismissed.Murdoch has argued that he has been “gravely injured in his character, his personal reputation and his professional reputation as a business person and company director, and has suffered and will continue to suffer substantial hurt, distress and embarrassment” as a result of the Crikey article.At the hearing earlier this month, Wigney described the litigant and the respondent as having “a scorched earth policy” in their conduct of the matter.“And I say this with the greatest respect … there does seem to be a hint that this case is being driven more by … ego and hubris and ideology than anything else,” he said. More

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      in Elections

      Aukus deal 'the biggest single investment in Australia's defence capability in history' – video

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      Anthony Albanese joined US president Joe Biden and UK prime minister Rishi Sunak to announce an Aukus agreement in San Diego that ‘represents the biggest single investment in Australia’s defence capability in all of our history,’ Albanese said. The first Australian-built nuclear-powered submarines, fitted with vertical launch systems to fire cruise missiles, are due to enter into service in the early 2040s

      Aukus: nuclear submarines deal will cost Australia up to $368bn
      Aukus nuclear submarine deal loophole prompts proliferation fears
      Size of UK’s nuclear submarine fleet could double under Aukus plans More