Beshear, Andrew G (1977- )

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      Election 2023: How Abortion Lifted Democrats, and More Key Takeaways

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      The political potency of abortion rights proved more powerful than the drag of President Biden’s approval ratings in Tuesday’s off-year elections, as Ohioans enshrined a right to abortion in their state’s constitution, and Democrats took control of both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly while holding on to Kentucky’s governorship.The night’s results showed the durability of Democrats’ political momentum since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ended the constitutional right to an abortion in 2022. It may also, at least temporarily, stem the latest round of Democratic fretting from a series of polls demonstrating Mr. Biden’s political weakness.After a strong midterm showing last year, a blowout victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race in April and a series of special election wins, Democrats head into Mr. Biden’s re-election contest with the wind at their backs. The question for the party is how they can translate that momentum to Mr. Biden, who remains unpopular while others running on his agenda have prevailed.Here are key takeaways from Tuesday:There’s nothing like abortion to aid Democrats.Democratic officials have been saying for months that the fight for abortion rights has become the issue that best motivates Democrats to vote, and is also the issue that persuades the most Republicans to vote for Democrats.On Tuesday, they found new evidence to bolster their case in victories by Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, who criticized his opponent’s defense of the state’s near-total ban; legislative candidates in Virginia who opposed the 15-week abortion ban proposed by the Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin; and, above all, the Ohio referendum establishing a right to abortion access. A Pennsylvania Supreme Court candidate who ran on abortion rights, Daniel McCaffery, also won, giving Democrats a 5-2 majority.Where Trump Counties in Ohio Voted to Support Abortion RightsOhio’s referendum drew support from both liberal and conservative areas of the state, and polled well ahead of President Biden’s results three years ago.Abortion is now so powerful as a Democratic issue that Everytown, the gun control organization founded and funded by Michael Bloomberg, used its TV ads in Virginia to promote abortion rights before it discussed gun violence.The anti-abortion Democrat who ran for governor of Mississippi, Brandon Presley, underperformed expectations.It’s a sign that no matter how weak Mr. Biden’s standing is, the political environment and the issues terrain are still strong for Democrats running on abortion access and against Republicans who defend bans.The last six Kentucky governor’s elections have been won by the same party that won the presidential election the following year. The president may not be able to do what Mr. Beshear managed — talking up Biden policies without ever mentioning the president’s name — but he now has examples of what a winning road map could look like for 2024.In Virginia, a Republican rising star faces an eclipse.Governor Youngkin had hoped a strong night for his party would greatly raise his stature as the Republican who turned an increasingly blue state back to red. That would at the very least include him in the conversation for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, if not 2024.Democratic victories in the Virginia legislature undercut Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s agenda, which was focused on abortion.Carlos Bernate for The New York TimesBut Mr. Youngkin’s pledge to enact what he called a moderate abortion law — a ban on abortions after 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and to save the life of an endangered mother — gave Democrats an effective counter as he sought full control of state government.The Democratic argument won the day, at least in part. The party seized the majority in the House of Delegates, kept control of the State Senate and definitely spoiled Mr. Youngkin’s night. The results offered nervous national Democrats still more evidence of abortion’s power as a motivator for their voters while upending the term-limited Mr. Youngkin’s plans for his final two years in office, and possibly beyond.A Democrat can win in deep-red Kentucky, if his name is Andy Beshear.Being the most popular governor in the country turns out to be a good thing if you want to get re-elected.Mr. Beshear spent his first term and his re-election campaign hyperfocused on local issues like teacher salaries, new road projects, guiding the state through the pandemic and natural disasters and, since last summer’s Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, opposing his state’s total ban on abortion.Gov. Andy Beshear focused on local issues in Kentucky, and avoided mentioning President Biden by name.Jon Cherry for The New York TimesThat made him politically bulletproof when his Republican challenger, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who was endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump, sought to nationalize the campaign and juice G.O.P. turnout by tying Mr. Beshear to Mr. Biden and attacking him on crime and L.G.B.T.Q. issues. (Mr. Beshear vetoed new restrictions aimed at transgender young people, though G.O.P. lawmakers voted to override him.)It’s not as if Republican voters stayed home; all the other Republicans running for statewide office won with at least 57 percent of the vote. Mr. Beshear just got enough of them to back him for governor. A Democrat who can win Republican voters without making compromises on issues important to liberal voters is someone the rest of the party will want to emulate in red states and districts across the country.Attacks on transgender rights didn’t work.As abortion access has become the top issue motivating Democrats, and with same-sex marriage broadly accepted in America, Republicans casting about for an issue to motivate social conservatives landed on restricting rights for transgender people. On Tuesday, that didn’t work.In Kentucky, Mr. Cameron and his Republican allies spent more than $5 million on television ads attacking L.G.B.T.Q. rights and Mr. Beshear for his defense of them, according to AdImpact, a firm that tracks political advertising. Gov. Tate Reeves in Mississippi spent $1.2 million on anti-L.G.B.T.Q. ads, while Republicans running for legislative seats in Virginia spent $527,000 worth of TV time on the issue.Daniel Cameron and his Republican allies spent more than $5 million on television ads attacking L.G.B.T.Q. rights — a strategy that did not pay off in Tuesday’s election.Michael Swensen/Getty ImagesIndeed, in Virginia, Danica Roem, a member of the House of Delegates, will become the South’s first transgender state senator after defeating a former Fairfax County police detective who supported barring transgender athletes from competing in high school sports.In Ohio, voters back both abortion and weed.Ohioans once again showed the popularity of abortion rights, even in reliably Republican states, when they easily approved a constitutional amendment establishing the right to an abortion.The vote in Ohio could be a harbinger for the coming presidential election season, when proponents and opponents of abortion rights are trying to put the issue before voters in the critical battleground states of Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania.Abortion rights groups entered Tuesday on a winning streak with such ballot measures since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year. And ultimately, Ohio voters did as voters before them had done — electing to preserve the right to an abortion in their state.Voters at a high school in Columbus, Ohio. Ohioans legalized recreational marijuana.Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesAnd with a margin that was almost identical to the abortion vote, Ohioans also legalized recreational marijuana use. That will make Ohio the 24th state to do so.Where abortion wasn’t an issue, a Republican won easily.Mississippi’s governor’s race was the exception to this off-year election’s rule on abortion: The incumbent governor, Mr. Reeves, and his Democratic challenger, Mr. Presley, ran as staunch opponents of abortion rights.And in that race, the Democrat lost.Mr. Presley hoped to make the Mississippi race close by tying the incumbent to a public corruption scandal that saw the misspending of $94 million in federal funds intended for Mississippi’s poor on projects like a college volleyball facility pushed by the retired superstar quarterback Brett Favre. He also pressed for the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act to save Mississippi’s collapsing rural hospitals.Gov. Tate Reeves won his re-election campaign easily Tuesday night in Mississippi.Emily Kask for The New York TimesBut in Mississippi, Mr. Reeves had three advantages that proved impenetrable: incumbency, the “R” next to his name on the ballot, and the endorsement of Mr. Trump, who won the state in 2020 by nearly 17 percentage points.In Kentucky races beneath the marquee governor’s contest, Democrats also did not run on abortion, and they, like Mr. Presley, lost.Rhode Island sends a Biden aide to the House.Rhode Island is hardly a swing state, but still, the heavily Democratic enclave’s election of Gabe Amo to one of its two House seats most likely brought a smile to Mr. Biden’s face. Mr. Amo was a deputy director of the White House office of intergovernmental affairs and as such, becomes the first Biden White House aide to rise to Congress.The son of African immigrants, Mr. Amo will also be the first Black representative from the Ocean State.Gabe Amo became the first Black person to represent Rhode Island in the U.S. Congress, according to The Associated Press.Kris Craig/Providence Journal, via Associated PressWhite House officials said the president congratulated his former aide on his victory. The special election fills the seat vacated by David Cicilline, a Democrat who left the seat to run a nonprofit. More

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      Andy Beshear Defeats Daniel Cameron to Remain Kentucky Governor

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      Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky won a second term on Tuesday, according to The Associated Press, earning a noteworthy victory for a Democrat in a deeply conservative state and one that validated his pragmatic approach over a first term buffeted by a series of natural disasters.Mr. Beshear defeated Daniel Cameron, the state’s attorney general, who is a protégé of Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and who has been considered a rising star in Republican politics. During the campaign, Mr. Cameron had tried to nationalize the race as much as possible, attacking Mr. Beshear for his veto of a bill placing restrictions on transgender youth and tying him to President Biden, who is deeply unpopular in the state.But Mr. Beshear, 45, one of the most popular governors in the country, led in polls throughout the race and raised much more money than Mr. Cameron. Outside groups tried to counter that advantage with ads on Mr. Cameron’s behalf, but Mr. Beshear had his own well-funded backers. And in some cases, Mr. Beshear turned national issues to his advantage, repeatedly hitting Mr. Cameron for his initial support of an abortion ban passed by the General Assembly that contains no exceptions for rape or incest.The expensive and at times bitterly contested race was one of just three races for governor in the country this year, all in traditionally strong Republican states. That Mr. Beshear, the son of a former Democratic governor of Kentucky, was in office in the first place was largely a consequence of the particularly divisive style of Matt Bevin, the Republican incumbent he beat in 2019. Mr. Bevin’s open hostility toward teachers who went on strike for pay raises galvanized Kentucky educators, who were crucial in delivering Mr. Beshear’s narrow upset win.Once in office, Mr. Beshear had to face one disaster after another: first the Covid pandemic and then, in 2021, a tornado outbreak in western Kentucky that killed 57 people, and, seven months later, catastrophic flooding in the mountains of eastern Kentucky that killed 45.His focus on recovery efforts, combined with frequent references to his religious faith and a careful avoidance of national political issues, kept his approval ratings high, even, apparently, among Kentuckians who had voted for former President Donald J. Trump. More

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      Elecciones en EE. UU.: los temas clave en las votaciones del martes

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      El martes se celebran comicios importantes en todo el país, entre ellos unas votaciones en Virginia que podrían ser cruciales para el acceso al aborto en el estado.El martes, los votantes en Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, Misisipi y otros puntos de Estados Unidos irán a las urnas para unas elecciones locales, las cuales no deben confundirse con las principales votaciones del país, que se celebrarán en 2024. Estas votaciones, no obstante, ofrecerán algunas pistas sobre la potencia del aborto como tema mobilizador frente al lastre de los bajos niveles de aprobación del presidente Joe Biden en un momento en que los políticos se preparan para los comicios presidenciales del próximo año.Los resultados podrían determinar si es que los demócratas se afianzan en su enfoque hacia temas clave como el aborto, un asunto positivo para el partido en un nuevo sondeo New York Times/Siena que mostró que Donald Trump va por delante de Biden en cinco estados indecisos (o pendulares) a un año de las presidenciales.Aquí algunos temas para tener en cuenta:Acceso al aborto versus la impopularidad de Biden en Virginia y KentuckyEl martes se deciden en las urnas los 140 curules de la Asamblea General de Virginia. Glenn Youngkin, el gobernador republicano y con relativa popularidad en ese estado de tendencia demócrata, espera quedarse con el senado del estado y asegurar el control total republicano de Richmond. De lograrlo, Youngkin vería un impulso para sus ambiciones a nivel nacional.Pero la campaña de los demócratas se está enfocando en el derecho al aborto, advirtiendo que si los republicanos asumen el control pondrían fin al acceso al aborto en el último estado del sureste en donde aún queda.Youngkin está poniendo a prueba una concesión que los republicanos a nivel nacional esperan logre convencer a los votantes luego de que su partido perdió mucho apoyo desde que la Corte Suprema rescindió el derecho constitucional al aborto. Dicho compromiso consiste en prohibir el acceso al aborto luego de 15 semanas de gestación, con excepciones en caso de violación, incesto y riesgo a la vida de la madre. Los demócratas dicen que se trata de una artimaña, pero deben sobreponerse al lastre de la impopularidad de Biden.En Kentucky se desarrolla una dinámica similar. En ese estado los demócratas se han apoyado fuertemente en el tema del aborto, en especial para perjudicar al retador republicano que busca la gobernación, Daniel Cameron. Cameron es el actual fiscal general del estado y ha tenido que defender la prohibición total de Kentucky al aborto. El gobernador titular, el demócrata Andy Beshear, sigue siendo popular, tiene antecedentes familiares en política (su padre, Steve Beshear también fue gobernador) y una reputación de moderado que le ha blindado contra los ataques que lo acusan de ser laxo en materia de delincuencia y apoyar los derechos “radicales” de las personas transgénero.Beshear ha liderado consistentemente en los sondeos, pero su afiliación política es un riesgo en Kentucky, un estado en el que el expresidente Donald Trump ganó por unos 26 puntos porcentuales en 2020. Los últimos sondeos del ciclo apuntaban a un empate técnico.¿Los votantes de Ohio apoyarán el derecho al aborto?Desde el ascenso de Trump, Ohio ha sido un estado republicano de manera predecible, pero el martes se realizará un referéndum para establecer el derecho al aborto bajo la constitución estatal que podría ser la prueba más pura de la postura de los republicanos en el asunto. O no.Cuando se ha consultado a los votantes directamente sobre el asunto del aborto en la papeleta, los grupos a favor del derecho al aborto han tenido una racha ganadora desde que la Corte Suprema revocó el fallo Roe contra Wade y retiró las protecciones constitucionales al procedimiento. Incluso en estados profundamente republicanos como Kansas, los votantes apoyaron de forma abrumadora el derecho al aborto. Pero quienes se oponen al aborto lograron victorias impotantes previo al referéndum del martes. En esta contienda, los votantes tendrán que votar “sí” a un cambio constitucional. Históricamente los electores de Ohio han tendido a rechazar las enmiendas que se deciden en en las urnas.Si bien la enmienda establecería el “derecho a tomar y llevar a cabo sus propias decisiones reproductivas”, también permite explícitamente que el estado prohíba el aborto después de la viablidad, o cerca de las 23 semanas, cuando el feto puede sobrevivir fuera del útero, a menos que el médico de la gestante determine que el procedimiento es “necesario para proteger la vida o la salud de la paciente embarazada”. Pero en la papeleta, los votantes verán un resumen del secretario del estado, Frank LaRose, un republicano que se opone al aborto, que dice que la enmienda “permitiría siempre que un niño nonato sea abortado en cualquier momento del embarazo, sin importar la viabilidad”.Ambos bandos han acusado al otro de desinformar y de llevar a cabo tácticas sucias.En Misisipi: una prueba a la ampliación de Medicaid, y un escándaloLa prohibición al aborto en Misisipi ocasionó la caída del fallo Roe versus Wade cuando la Corte Suprema se puso del lado de Thomas E. Dobbs, funcionario de salud del estado, en el caso Dobbs versus Jackson.Este estado del sur profundo del país ahora enfrenta una batalla campal por la gobernación, pero los candidatos no se han centrado en el aborto, ya que tanto el gobernador actual, el republicano Tate Reeves, como su rival demócrata, Brandon Presley, se oponen al procedimiento.En lugar de ello, el sorprendente desafío de Presley ha sido avivado de forma potente por su impulso para ampliar Medicaid según lo establecido por la Ley de Cuidado de Salud a Bajo Precio (Affordable Care Act) y un escándalo de corrupción en el que se malgastaron 94 millones de dólares federales destinados a las comunidades pobres de Misisipi en proyectos como unas instalaciones de voleibol colegial propuestas por Brett Favre, el mariscal de campo superestrella ya retirado.Reeves nunca estuvo directamente involucrado en el escándalo, pero sí despidió a un abogado investigador justo después de que el abogado emitió un citatorio que podría haber brindado detalles sobre la participación de habitantes destacados de Misisipi.“Si crees que Tate Reeves atacará la corrupción, tengo una propiedad de playa en Nettleton para venderte”, dijo Presley este mes en un debate, haciendo alusión al noreste del estado.Presley es integrante de la Comisión de la Función Pública de Misisipi y tiene una clase única de reconocimiento de marca: es primo segundo de Elvis Presley.Pero en Misisipi, Reeves cuenta con tres ventajas que podrían ser insuperables: la titularidad como gobernador, la “R” de su afiliación partidista en la papeleta y el apoyo de Trump, que en las elecciones de 2020 ganó en el estado por casi 17 puntos porcentuales.Más iniciativas en la papeleta: riqueza, retiro y marihuana recreativaEl martes los votantes tomarán bastantes decisiones de manera directa en las urnas sin pasar por las autoridades electas. Además del aborto, la iniciativa que más atención atrae estará en Ohio, donde se decidirá si el cannabis debe legalizarse para consumo recreativo. Si los votantes están de acuerdo, Ohio sería el 24avo estado en legalizar la marihuana. Eso podría presionar al Congreso para que avance con la legalización que busca liberalizar las restricciones a las operaciones bancarias interestatales para las empresas que se dedican legalmente al cannabis.Los texanos van a decidir la suerte de 14 enmiendas constitucionales, entre ellas una que prohibiría al estado imponer un tributo “a la riqueza” o cobrar impuestos sobre el valor de mercado de los activos que se poseen pero no se venden. Los activistas liberales y algunos senadores demócratas destacados, como Elizabeth Warren de Massachusetts, han apoyado ese tipo de impuestos como la única forma de acceder al patrimonio de los multimillonarios, que pagan impuestos sobre la renta mínimos pero que llevan lujosos estilos de vida gracias a una riqueza vasta y sin carga impositiva.Los texanos también van a decidir si aumentan la edad de jubilación obligatoria para los jueces estatales de 75 a 79 años. More

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      Election Day 2023: What to Watch in Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky and More

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      Voters in Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, Mississippi and elsewhere head to the polls on Tuesday for off-year elections that will offer clues to the continued potency of abortion against the drag of President Biden’s low approval ratings as politicians prepare for the coming presidential election year.The results may determine whether Democrats find some reassurances on their approach to key issues like abortion, which was a bright spot for the party in a new New York Times/Siena poll that showed Donald J. Trump leading Mr. Biden in five critical swing states one year out.Here is what to watch:Abortion access vs. Biden’s unpopularity in Virginia and Kentucky.All 140 seats in Virginia’s General Assembly are on the ballot Tuesday, with the Democratic-leaning state’s relatively popular Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, hoping to capture the State Senate and secure total Republican control of Richmond. That feat would propel Mr. Youngkin’s national ambitions.But Democrats are running on abortion rights, warning that G.O.P. control would end abortion access in the last state in the Southeast.Mr. Youngkin is testing a compromise that national Republicans hope will be a winning message after so many party losses since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion: a ban on abortion access after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exemptions for rape, incest and the life of a mother. Democrats say that is a ruse, but they must overcome the weight of Mr. Biden’s unpopularity.A similar dynamic is playing out in Kentucky, where Democrats have leaned heavily on the abortion issue, especially to tarnish the Republican challenger for governor, Daniel Cameron, who, as the current state attorney general, has had to defend Kentucky’s total abortion ban. The incumbent Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, remains popular, with a family name (his father, Steve Beshear, was also a governor) and a moderate reputation that have insulated him against attacks that he is soft on crime and supports “radical” transgender rights.Mr. Beshear has led consistently in the polls, but in a state that former President Donald J. Trump won by about 26 percentage points in 2020, the “D” by Mr. Beshear’s name is a liability. The final polls of the cycle pointed to a dead heat.Will voters in Ohio back abortion rights?Ohio has been a reliably Republican state since the rise of Mr. Trump, but a referendum to establish a right to abortion under the state constitution could be the purest test on Tuesday of where even Republicans stand on the issue. Or not.Abortion rights groups have been on a winning streak with ballot measures that put the question of abortion straight to voters since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, doing away with constitutional protections for abortion rights. Even in deeply Republican states like Kansas, voters have overwhelmingly supported abortion access. But abortion opponents scored some important victories before the referendum on Tuesday. In this contest, voters will have to affirmatively vote “yes” on a constitutional change; Ohioans have historically tended to reject ballot amendments.While the amendment would establish “a right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions,” it also explicitly allows the state to ban abortion after viability, or around 23 weeks, when the fetus can survive outside the uterus, unless the pregnant woman’s doctor finds the procedure “is necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.” But in the ballot box, voters will see a summary from the secretary of state, Frank LaRose, a Republican who opposes abortion, which says the amendment “would always allow an unborn child to be aborted at any stage of pregnancy, regardless of viability.”Both sides of the issue have accused the other of misinformation and underhanded tactics.In Mississippi, a test of expanding Medicaid — and scandal.Mississippi’s abortion ban brought down Roe v. Wade when the Supreme Court sided with Thomas E. Dobbs, Mississippi’s health officer, in Dobbs v. Jackson.The Deep South state now faces a pitched battle for governor, but the candidates have not made abortion the central issue, since the incumbent Republican governor, Tate Reeves, and his Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley, both oppose it.Instead, Mr. Presley’s surprisingly potent challenge has been fueled by a push to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act and a public corruption scandal that saw the misspending of $94 million in federal funds intended for Mississippi’s poor on projects like a college volleyball facility pushed by the retired superstar quarterback Brett Favre.Mr. Reeves was never directly implicated in the scandal, but he did fire an investigating attorney just after the lawyer issued a subpoena that could have turned up details about the involvement of prominent Mississippians“If you think Tate Reeves will take on corruption, I’ve got some beachfront property in Nettleton to sell you,” Mr. Presley said in a debate this month, referring to his hometown in the state’s northeast.Mr. Presley, a member of the Mississippi Public Service Commission, has a unique kind of name recognition; he is a second cousin of Elvis Presley.But in Mississippi, Mr. Reeves has three advantages that could prove impenetrable: incumbency, the “R” next to his name on the ballot, and the endorsement of Mr. Trump, who won the state in 2020 by nearly 17 percentage points.Ballot initiatives, from wealth to weed.Voters will make numerous direct decisions on Tuesday, bypassing elected officials. Beyond abortion, the most watched initiative will be, again, in Ohio, where voters will decide whether cannabis should be legalized for recreational use. If voters agree, Ohio would become the 24th state to legalize marijuana. That could put pressure on Congress to move forward legislation at least to ease restrictions on interstate banking for legal cannabis businesses.Texans will decide the fate of 14 constitutional amendments, including one that would bar the state from imposing a “wealth” tax, or a tax on the market value of assets owned but not sold. Liberal activists and some prominent Democratic senators, such as Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, have pushed such taxes as the only way to tap the wealth of billionaires, whose income taxes are minimal but whose vast, untaxed wealth supports lavish lifestyles.Texans will also decide whether to raise the mandatory retirement age of state judges to 79, from 75. More

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      Can a Democrat Running the Biden Playbook Win in Deep-Red Kentucky?

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      Gov. Andy Beshear, the popular incumbent, is campaigning for re-election on abortion rights, the economy and infrastructure — but distancing himself from the unpopular president.Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky is conducting one of this year’s most intriguing political experiments: What happens when an incumbent Democrat campaigns on President Biden’s record and agenda, but never mentions the party’s unpopular leader by name?Mr. Beshear is running for re-election in his deep-red state as a generic version of Mr. Biden, promoting himself as having led Kentucky through dark times to emerge with a strong post-Covid economy.Like Mr. Biden, he is counting on voters’ distaste for aggressive Republican opposition to abortion, which is banned in almost all circumstances in Kentucky, as well as those with good will toward his stewardship during crises like natural and climate disasters.Yet he is doing whatever he can to separate himself from Mr. Biden, whose approval ratings remain mired around 40 percent nationally and are much lower in Kentucky.“This race is about Kentucky,” Mr. Beshear said on Monday in Richmond, Ky. “It’s about what’s going on in our houses, not about what’s going on in the White House.”Mr. Beshear is among the most popular governors in the country, and Democrats are cautiously optimistic about his prospects in Tuesday’s elections, even though former President Donald J. Trump won the state by about 26 percentage points in 2020.As in-person early voting begins on Thursday, officials in both parties in Kentucky say that every private poll of the race has shown Mr. Beshear leading his Republican challenger, Daniel Cameron, the attorney general. That could suggest the continuation of a national political environment that has been favorable to Democrats since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson in June 2022 ended the federal right to abortion.Daniel Cameron, the Republican challenger for governor and the state’s attorney general, acknowledges in his TV ads that Mr. Beshear is “a nice guy.”Timothy D. Easley/Associated PressBut Mr. Biden remains toxic in the state: A poll released Tuesday by Morning Consult found that 68 percent of Kentuckians disapproved of him, while 60 percent — including 43 percent of Republicans — approved of Mr. Beshear.Since Mr. Beshear won the governor’s race in 2019, the number of registered Democrats in Kentucky has fallen while the number of Republicans has increased. And local Republicans believe they’ll outperform polling after surveys underestimated support for Mr. Trump in 2020.Kentucky’s voters have a knack for providing a preview of national trends. The state’s last six elections for governor have forecast presidential election results a year later.On the campaign trail in counties that Mr. Trump carried — which is 118 of Kentucky’s 120 — Mr. Beshear tries to extricate the Biden from Bidenomics, the tagline much heralded by the president’s campaign. Mr. Beshear celebrates record-low unemployment rates, a major bridge project paid for by Mr. Biden’s infrastructure law and what he says are the “two best years for economic development in our history.”No new business development is too small. At a Monday morning stop in Richmond, Ky., Mr. Beshear cited the recent opening of a truck stop just outside town. “We even brought a Buc-ee’s to Madison County,” he said, referring to the franchise’s first outpost in the state and a point of local pride.Left unmentioned in Mr. Beshear’s pitch to voters is the Biden administration’s significant role in his résumé. Mr. Biden’s infrastructure law has directed $5.2 billion to at least 220 Kentucky projects, including $1.1 billion for high-speed internet and $1.6 billion for the rebuilding of the Brent Spence Bridge, which connects Cincinnati to its Kentucky suburbs. It’s a long-awaited project that Mr. Beshear mentions in his closing TV ad.Democrats on the Kentucky ballot with Mr. Beshear on Tuesday have all gotten the message about Mr. Biden.Kim Reeder, the Democrat running for state auditor, laughed when asked if she had ever said the words “Joe Biden” out loud, then requested to go off the record when asked what she thought of his performance in office. Sierra Enlow, the party’s candidate for agriculture commissioner — whose Republican opponent is pledging in television ads to “stop Biden and save Kentucky” — said she responded by “talking about what voters need to hear and what this office actually does.”Kim Reeder, left, a Democrat running for state auditor, with a supporter at a brewery in Richmond, Ky. Jon Cherry for The New York TimesAnd Pam Stevenson, the Democratic candidate for attorney general, said she didn’t talk about Mr. Biden “because for the last year, no one’s asked me about him.”Kentucky Republicans acknowledge that Mr. Beshear is popular and leading even in their polling. Mr. Cameron, who is a protégé of Senator Mitch McConnell, acknowledges in his TV ads that Mr. Beshear is “a nice guy.”The most popular topics in TV ads aired by Mr. Cameron and his Republican allies are crime, opposition to Mr. Biden, Mr. Cameron’s endorsement from Mr. Trump, opposition to L.G.B.T.Q. rights, and jobs, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm.Mac Brown, the chairman of the Republican Party of Kentucky, said Mr. Beshear’s popularity was a remnant of the billions directed to the state from the Biden administration. Crime is the foremost concern, said Mr. Brown, whose home in the Louisville suburbs was vandalized and burned last year.“When you sit down and look at it, he’s very good at taking credit for what other people do,” Mr. Brown said. “That’s probably the easiest way to say it.”As with Mr. Biden and other Democrats, the most potent political weapon for Mr. Beshear is abortion rights. With Republican supermajorities in the Kentucky Legislature, there’s little Mr. Beshear can do to change the state’s near-total ban on the procedure. The building in downtown Louisville that housed one of Kentucky’s last abortion clinics is now for sale.Pam Stevenson, the Democrat running for attorney general, said she didn’t talk about Mr. Biden “because for the last year, no one’s asked me about him.”Jon Cherry for The New York TimesMr. Beshear’s campaigning is a reversal of decades of red-state Democratic reticence on abortion politics. Where Democrats have in the past avoided the issue or watered down their support for abortion rights, Mr. Beshear has blasted Mr. Cameron for his anti-abortion stance and attacked Kentucky Republicans for passing the abortion ban. He is airing striking ads that feature a woman who speaks of being raped by her stepfather when she was 12 years old.Mr. Cameron, who has defended the state’s abortion ban in court, now says he would sign legislation to allow some exceptions if elected.“There’s no ads saying, ‘Don’t elect the pro-abortion guy,’” said Trey Grayson, a Republican who served as Kentucky secretary of state in the 2000s.Last November, voters rejected an effort to write an abortion prohibition into the Kentucky Constitution. Now the Beshear campaign has found in its polling that just 12 percent of Kentuckians favor the state’s abortion ban. Mr. Beshear said he was trying to change the political language surrounding abortion away from the old binary between choice and life.“Those terms were from a Roe v. Wade world that doesn’t exist anymore,” he said in Richmond this week. “In the Dobbs world, we have the most draconian, restrictive law in the country. This race is about whether you think that victims of rape and incest should have options, that the couples that have a nonviable pregnancy should have to carry it to term even though that child is going to die.”Steve Beshear, who is Mr. Beshear’s father and a former governor of the state, was more succinct about where the abortion debate stood in Kentucky.“It’s totally changed from a Republican issue to a Democratic issue,” he said.Steve Beshear, Mr. Beshear’s father and a former Kentucky governor, said abortion politics in the state now favored Democrats.Jon Cherry for The New York TimesJust as Mr. Biden’s fate is likely to be determined by his performance in the counties that ring Atlanta, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, Mr. Beshear has concentrated on the suburban areas near Cincinnati, Lexington and Louisville. In 2019, he won Madison County, a Lexington suburb that includes Richmond, before Mr. Trump won it by about 27 points in 2020.Jimmy Cornelison, a Democrat who is the elected coroner of Madison County, said people there appreciated that the state had far fewer deaths from the coronavirus pandemic because Mr. Beshear had put in place aggressive policies to restrict public gatherings and require masks in indoor spaces. But that doesn’t mean such Kentuckians share Mr. Beshear’s party identification.“There were a lot of people elected Democrats in this county that aren’t Democrats now,” Mr. Cornelison said. “I’m the sole survivor.”Voters who came to Mr. Beshear’s campaign rallies this week spoke of his nightly coronavirus updates in 2020, his relentless travel schedule and a general satisfaction about how the state is doing. While Mr. Biden speaks of restoring “the soul of America,” Mr. Beshear has invited the entire state to join him on “Team Kentucky.”“People disagree with Washington, you know, but they like what’s going on in Kentucky,” said Ralph Hoskins, a Democratic retired school superintendent from Oneida, Ky., who drove through the rain to see Mr. Beshear speak under a tent in the parking lot of an abandoned supermarket in London, Ky.Nearby, Jean Marie Durham, a Democrat who is a retired state employee from East Bernstadt, Ky., showed off a poem she had written about Mr. Beshear during the early days of the pandemic.“He cares about our protection from death and despair; He diligently considers our safety and personal care!” she wrote.Ms. Durham also had handy the response Mr. Beshear had sent her. He called her “a very talented writer” and wrote that he had displayed the poem in his office in Frankfort, the capital.“He’s one of us,” Ms. Durham said of Mr. Beshear, “even though his dad was governor.” More

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      Election Day Guide: Governor Races, Abortion Access and More

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      Two governorships are at stake in the South, while Ohio voters will decide whether to enshrine the right to an abortion in the state constitution.Election Day is nearly here, and while off-year political races receive a fraction of the attention compared with presidential elections, some of Tuesday’s contests will be intensely watched.At stake are two southern governorships, control of the Virginia General Assembly and abortion access in Ohio. National Democrats and Republicans, seeking to build momentum moving toward next November, will be eyeing those results for signals about 2024.Here are the major contests voters will decide on Tuesday and a key ballot question:Governor of KentuckyGov. Andy Beshear, left, a Democrat, is facing Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s Republican attorney general, in his campaign for re-election as governor.Pool photo by Kentucky Educational TelevisionGov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, is seeking to again defy convention in deep-red Kentucky, a state carried handily by Donald J. Trump in 2020.He is facing Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s attorney general, who was propelled to victory by an early endorsement from Mr. Trump in a competitive Republican primary in May.In 2019, Mr. Cameron became the first Black person to be elected as Kentucky’s attorney general, an office previously held by Mr. Beshear. He drew attention in 2020 when he announced that a grand jury did not indict two Louisville officers who shot Breonna Taylor.In the 2019 governor’s race, Mr. Beshear ousted Matt Bevin, a Trump-backed Republican, by fewer than 6,000 votes. This year, he enters the race with a strong job approval rating. He is seeking to replicate a political feat of his father, Steve Beshear, who was also Kentucky governor and was elected to two terms.Governor of Mississippi Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner who is related to Elvis Presley, wants to be the state’s first Democratic governor in two decades.Emily Kask for The New York TimesGov. Tate Reeves, a Republican in his first term, has some of the lowest job approval numbers of the nation’s governors.Rogelio V. Solis/Associated PressIt has been two decades since Mississippi had a Democrat as governor. Gov. Tate Reeves, a Republican in his first term, is seeking to avoid becoming the one who ends that streak.But his job approval numbers are among the lowest of the nation’s governors, which has emboldened his Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner with a famous last name: His second cousin, once removed, was Elvis Presley.Mr. Presley has attacked Mr. Reeves over a welfare scandal exposed last year by Mississippi Today, which found that millions in federal funds were misspent. Mr. Reeves, who was the lieutenant governor during the years the scandal unfolded, has denied any wrongdoing, but the issue has been a focal point of the contest.Abortion access in OhioAs states continue to reckon with the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court last year, Ohio has become the latest front in the fight over access to abortion.Reproductive rights advocates succeeded in placing a proposed amendment on the November ballot that would enshrine the right to abortion access into the state constitution. Its supporters have sought to fill the void that was created by the Roe decision.Anti-abortion groups have mounted a sweeping campaign to stop the measure. One effort, a proposal to raise the threshold required for passing a constitutional amendment, was rejected by voters this summer.Virginia legislatureIn just two states won by President Biden in 2020, Republicans have a power monopoly — and in Virginia, they are aiming to secure a third. The others are Georgia and New Hampshire.Democrats narrowly control the Virginia Senate, where all 40 seats are up for grabs in the election. Republicans hold a slim majority in the House of Delegates, which is also being contested.The outcome of the election is being viewed as a potential reflection of the clout of Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican with national ambitions.Philadelphia mayorAn open-seat race for mayor in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s foremost Democratic bastion, is down to two former City Council members: Cherelle Parker, a Democrat, and David Oh, a Republican.The advantage for Ms. Parker appears to be an overwhelming one in the city, which has not elected a Republican as mayor since 1947.It has also been two decades since Philadelphia, the nation’s sixth most populous city, had a somewhat competitive mayoral race. More

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      I Wish ____ Would Run

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      We asked readers which other candidates they would like to see in the presidential race.To the Editor:Re “More Hats in the Ring?” (Letters, Sept. 29):The two candidates I would like to see in the 2024 race for the presidency are John Kasich, two-term Republican governor of Ohio from 2011 to 2019, and Gretchen Whitmer, who is serving her second term as Democratic governor of Michigan.Both Mr. Kasich and Ms. Whitmer are likable, accomplished politicians with extensive political executive experience.They are from the Midwest, not from either coast, and would likely appeal to moderates in their respective parties, as well as to middle-of-the-road unaffiliated voters throughout the United States.Their greatest strength as candidates in the 2024 presidential election would be if they ran on a fusion ticket. Such an arrangement, if they won twice, would give the country eight years of steady leadership, encouraging legislative collaboration in Congress between the two major political parties and projecting to the world that the United States is a strong, united country.Bruce E. NewlingNew Brunswick, N.J.To the Editor:I fear that President Biden’s bid for a second term will not succeed even though I believe he would be an excellent president again.I believe a better ticket would be Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky for president with Keisha Lance Bottoms as the vice-presidential candidate.Governor Beshear handled disasters in Kentucky efficiently and communicated well with the population. Ms. Bottoms has had experience as mayor of Atlanta. She has a wonderful personality and years of management experience.Also replacing Vice President Kamala Harris with another Black woman would minimize objections from Black voters. Ms. Bottoms is an inspirational speaker, a quality that is needed in the office.Marshall WeingardenEaston, Md.To the Editor:I suggest we give serious thought to Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona and Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota as a balanced and intelligent ticket for the Democrats in the 2024 election. Either person is well qualified to be at the top of the ticket.Senator Kelly is highly educated, has an impressive work history, has shown empathy and understanding as a caregiver, and has a rational, middle-of-the-road view of the issues facing our country.Senator Klobuchar is whip smart, and one of the hardest-working, get-it-done persons anywhere on the Hill. The pair would return integrity and intelligence to the United States in short order.Connie MomenthyHopkins, Minn.To the Editor:As president we need a brilliant, articulate, patriotic individual who is experienced in national-level politics and who is inspiringly charismatic. Representative Jamie Raskin, Democrat of Maryland, is courageous and unflinching in his devotion to our Constitution. He is a natural leader.John GoldenbergSanta Clarita, Calif.To the Editor:Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio should run for president. His rise from Appalachian poverty to the U.S. Senate is an inspiring example of the American dream. He has proved his focus is on helping Main Street, not K Street.He is a conservative working for average Americans. A devout Catholic, he is pro-life/pro-family, supporting a 15-week federal abortion ban and a reimagined child tax credit. He is pro-worker, siding with union members over corporate leaders, promoting gas-powered car production in America and increasing taxes on companies shipping jobs overseas.Senator Vance wants to limit Big Tech’s power over our economy and government, and stop its stealing of personal data. He is committed to an America First foreign policy, opposing distant foreign wars where America has no vital interest, especially the war in Ukraine.He also works across the aisle with Senator Elizabeth Warren to place financial responsibility for large banks collapsing on their executives, not just taxpayers, and with Senator Sherrod Brown to improve train safety.Senator Vance has the vision and proven ability to work toward an America that promotes conservative values, puts Americans first and advances the common good.Jason DelgadoVirginia BeachTo the Editor:In my rich fantasy life, Pete Buttigieg or Michelle Obama would run for president in 2024. They both possess the ideal qualities of thoughtfulness, intelligence, integrity and kindness that a leader of our country needs in these times of divisiveness and anger embroiling our country.Joe Biden is not getting the credit he is due for all he has accomplished, possibly partly owing to all the noise about his age, and maybe partly because he is not a compelling enough speaker.I believe that both Ms. Obama and Mr. Buttigieg are capable of delivering a cogent message in an engaging speaking style that could energize the party and give people something to vote for rather than just voting against another candidate.Deborah BersHarrison, N.Y.To the Editor:The “hat in the ring” I would like to see is that of Condoleezza Rice.She has far more experience in the executive branch than any of the Republican candidates. Her credentials, demeanor, high moral character, intelligence and dedication to this country are already well known by the American people and beyond dispute. Her age, gender and race are a plus.She needs to be persuaded that at this point in time her country needs her to accept this difficult, demanding, thankless position.Roy J. EvansDenville, N.J.To the Editor:Pramila Jayapal, a member of Congress from Washington State, is whom I’d like to see in the presidential race. Before entering politics, she was a Seattle-based civil rights activist and, after the Sept. 11 attacks, founded the immigrant advocacy group Hate Free Zone (now OneAmerica).She is now a senior whip of the Democratic Caucus, a key member of the House Judiciary Committee and chair of Congressional Progressive Caucus. She has also held key positions on the United for Climate and Environmental Justice Task Force and the Immigration Task Force for the Asian Pacific American Caucus.The 67 percent of Democrats who prefer that President Biden not be renominated are right. America needs an advocate for progressive change with a can-do pragmatic attitude: Pramila Jayapal.Liz AmsdenLos AngelesTo the Editor:There are so many people I know in ordinary life whom I would vote for president sooner than any of the declared candidates. Yet any sane person wouldn’t run. Why subject themselves to extremist primary voters and to 24-hour news networks that will excoriate you nonstop if you don’t pander to their agenda?Until we face up to the fact that we are getting the candidates we deserve, we will continue to be the laughingstock of the world. Is a Biden-Trump rematch the best America can do?We need to find a way out of the two-party duopoly and get out from a primary system that rewards extremist candidates. Fox News needs to become a responsible news source and not just peddle falsehoods and divide the country for profit.Let’s reward candidates who deal with real issues and take risks in advancing positions that involve educating the public instead of just pandering to them. This will yield better candidates and real choices in elections.Ivan CimentNew York More

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      What Happens if Mitch McConnell Resigns Before His Senate Term Ends?

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      The longtime Republican leader froze up during a news conference on Wednesday in Kentucky. The second such episode in recent weeks, it stirred speculation about his future in the Senate.For the second time in a little over a month, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the longtime Republican leader, froze up during a news conference on Wednesday, elevating concerns about his health and his ability to complete his term that ends in January 2027.At an event hosted by the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce, Mr. McConnell, 81, who was elected to his seventh term in 2020, paused for about 30 seconds while responding to a reporter’s question about his re-election plans.The abrupt spell — like one at the U.S. Capitol in July — happened in front of the cameras. In March, a fall left him with a concussion. He suffered at least two other falls that were not disclosed by his office.Mr. McConnell has brushed off past questions about his health, but speculation is swirling again about what would happen in the unlikely event that he retired in the middle of his term.How would the vacancy be filled?For decades in Kentucky, the power to fill a vacancy in the U.S. Senate was reserved exclusively for the governor, regardless of whether an incumbent stepped down, died in office or was expelled from Congress.But with Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, in the state’s highest office, Republican lawmakers used their legislative supermajorities to change the state law in 2021.Under the new law, a state executive committee consisting of members of the same political party as the departing incumbent senator will name three candidates the governor can choose from to fill the vacancy on a temporary basis. Then a special election would be set, and its timing would depend on when the vacancy occurs.At the time that G.O.P. lawmakers introduced the change, Mr. McConnell supported the measure. Mr. Beshear, who is up for re-election this November, vetoed the bill, but was overridden by the Legislature.Who might follow McConnell in the Senate?Several Republicans could be in the mix to fill the seat in the unlikely scenario that Mr. McConnell, the longest-serving leader in the Senate, stepped down including Daniel Cameron, the state’s attorney general; Ryan Quarles, the agricultural commissioner; Kelly Craft, a former U.N. ambassador under former President Donald Trump and Representative Andy Barr.Photographs by Jon Cherry for The New York Times; Grace Ramey/Daily News, via Associated Press and Alex Brandon/Associated Press.In a state won handily by former President Donald J. Trump, several Republicans could be in the mix should Mr. McConnell, the longest-serving leader in the Senate, step down.But replacing him with a unflagging ally of the former president could rankle Mr. McConnell, who has become a fairly sharp, if cautious, critic of Mr. Trump after the former president’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election and after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.One name to watch could be Daniel Cameron, the state’s attorney general, who is challenging Mr. Beshear in the governor’s race and has been considered at times an heir apparent to Mr. McConnell.Should he lose his bid for governor — which drew an early endorsement from Mr. Trump — talk of succession could be inevitable despite his connection to the former president.Ryan Quarles, the well-liked agricultural commissioner, might also be a contender. He lost this year’s primary to Mr. Cameron in the governor’s race.Kelly Craft, a former U.N. ambassador under Mr. Trump, who finished third in that primary, has the political connections to seemingly be part of the conversation. She is married to a coal-industry billionaire, who spent millions on advertising for her primary campaign.And then there is Representative Andy Barr, who has drawn comparisons to Mr. McConnell and who described Mr. Trump’s conduct as “regrettable and irresponsible,” but voted against impeachment after the riot at the Capitol.What have McConnell and his aides said about his health?Both times that Mr. McConnell froze up in front of the cameras, his aides have said that he felt lightheaded.But his office has shared few details about what caused the episodes or about his overall health. He missed several weeks from the Senate this year while recovering from the concussion in March, which required his hospitalization.Mr. McConnell, who had polio as a child, has repeatedly played down concerns about his health and at-times frail appearance.“I’m not going anywhere,” he told reporters earlier this year.How is Congress dealing with other lawmakers’ health issues?For the current Congress, the average age in the Senate is 64 years, the second oldest in history, according to the Congressional Research Service.Senator Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat from California who is the chamber’s oldest member at 90, has faced health problems this year that have prompted growing calls for her to step down.In February, she was hospitalized with a severe case of shingles, causing encephalitis and other complications that were not publicly disclosed. She did not return to the Senate until May, when she appeared frailer than ever and disoriented.This month, she was hospitalized after a fall in her San Francisco home.Longtime senators are not the only ones in the chamber grappling with health concerns.John Fetterman, a Democrat who was Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor, suffered a near-fatal stroke last May and went on to win one of the most competitive Senate seats in November’s midterm elections.Nick Corasaniti More