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    Why Kamala Harris Matters So Much in 2024

    A few weeks ago, one of France’s most famous public intellectuals, Bernard-Henri Lévy, gave an interview to The Times on his new documentary, “Slava Ukraini,” and he said something that helped me understand why, as I approach my 70th birthday, I still want to be a journalist.Asked why, at age 74, he dodged rockets in Ukraine to bring home the savagery of the Russian invasion, Lévy said, “In Ukraine, I had the feeling for the first time that the world I knew, the world in which I grew up, the world that I want to leave to my children and grandchildren, might collapse.”I have that exact same fear.Which is why the focus of my columns these days has been very tight. There are three things that absolutely cannot be allowed to happen: Israel cannot be allowed to turn into an autocracy like Viktor Orban’s Hungary; Ukraine cannot be allowed to fall to Vladimir Putin; and Donald Trump cannot be allowed to occupy the White House ever again.If all three were to happen, the world that I want to leave my children and grandchildren could completely collapse.Israel, the only functioning pluralistic democracy in the Middle East, tempered by the rule of law, albeit imperfect, would be lost.The European Union — the United States of Europe, the world’s other great multiethnic center of free markets, free people and human rights — would be at Putin’s mercy.And the United States of America, with a vengeful Trump back in the White House, effectively pardoned for his many attacks on our democratic institutions and his assault on the integrity of our elections, would never be the same. Trump would be unchained — an utterly chilling thought.It’s through this lens that I want to talk about Joe Biden’s announcement on Tuesday that he is running for re-election, joined again by Kamala Harris. Biden’s ability to finish his current term and successfully navigate another one is critical to all three scenarios mentioned above. Which is why, now that Biden has declared that he is running, he absolutely has to win.But while you may think the 2024 election is very likely going to be a rerun of 2020, that is not the case for the Democrats. This time, Biden’s running mate will really matter.We are always told that, in the end, people vote for the candidate for president, not for vice president. But because Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term — and therefore the chance of his health failing is not small — people will be asked to vote as much for his vice president as for him, maybe more than in any other election in American history.The most recent FiveThirtyEight average of all the Biden-Harris approval polls found that 51.9 percent of Americans disapprove of Harris’s job performance and 40 percent approve, about the same numbers as Biden’s.Let me be clear: I voted for Joe Biden, and I do not want my money back. He is a good man, and he has been a good president, better than the polls give him credit for. The Western alliance that he put together, and has held together, to counter the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a master class in alliance management and defending the democratic order in Europe. Ask Putin.The way Biden has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he is not fooled by — and will not be indifferent to — Netanyahu’s judicial coup d’état masquerading as a “judicial reform” has been a tremendous source of encouragement for the hundreds of thousands of Israelis who have taken to the streets to defend their democracy.And on the domestic issues I care about most — rebuilding America’s infrastructure, ensuring American leadership in the manufacture of the most advanced microchips that will power the age of artificial intelligence, and incentivizing market forces to deliver the huge scale of clean energy we need to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change — Biden has delivered beyond my highest hopes.Joe Biden would be my candidate, no matter what his age, as long he was physically and mentally able, because I see no other Democrat with his blend of political skills, his core belief in the necessity and possibility of national unity, his foreign policy savvy and his ability to disagree with Trump’s supporters without trying to humiliating them. He authentically wants to get the poison out of our political system.But … I am keenly aware that plenty of Americans don’t share my views. I realize that the roughly 30 percent of Republicans who are Trump devotees are most likely beyond reach — and nothing Biden can say will bring them around. However, they will not decide the next election.As Axios reported on April 17, Gallup polling in March “found that a record 49 percent of Americans see themselves as politically independent — the same as the two major parties put together.”This means that there are many moderate, principled conservatives and independents who will not, or prefer not to, vote for Trump again. Just enough of them demonstrated as much in the 2022 midterms to prevent virtually all of the major Trump election deniers running for state and national office from gaining power. Their votes helped to save our democracy.If the 2024 race comes down to Biden vs. Trump again, we are going to need those independents and moderate Republicans to show up again. But this time around, because of his age and the possibility that he might not be able to finish a second term, Biden’s vice president will be much more consequential in their minds.It’s no secret that Vice President Harris has not elevated her stature in the last two-plus years. I don’t know what the problem is — whether she was dealt an impossible set of issues to deal with, or is in over her head, or is contending with a mix of sexism and racism as the first woman of color to serve as vice president. All I know is that doubts among voters about her abilities to serve as president, which were significant enough for her to quit as a presidential candidate even before the Iowa caucuses in 2020, have not gone away.Given the stakes, Biden needs to make the case to his party — and, more important, to independents and moderate Republicans — why Harris is the best choice to succeed him, should he not be able to complete his term. He cannot ignore this issue, because that question will be on the minds of many voters come election time.Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesAt the same time, Harris has to make the case for herself, ideally by showing more forcefully what she can do. One thing Biden might consider is putting Harris in charge of ensuring that America’s transition to the age of artificial intelligence works to strengthen communities and the middle class. It is a big theme that could take her all over the country.I wrote a column more than two years ago suggesting that Biden make Harris “his de facto secretary of rural development, in charge of closing the opportunity gap, the connectivity gap, the learning gap, the start-up gap — and the anger and alienation gap — between rural America and the rest of the country.” It would have been a substantive challenge and would have enabled her and the administration to build bridges to rural Republicans. Never happened.I am terrified of going into this election with a Democratic ticket that gives moderate Republicans and independents — who are desperate for an alternative to Trump — any excuse to gravitate back to him.And beware. Trump is no fool. If he’s the G.O.P. nominee, I can easily see him asking a more moderate Republican woman, like Nikki Haley, to be his running mate, knowing that her presence on the ticket could be an incentive that gives at least some of those Republicans and independents who are down on Trump an excuse to plug their noses and vote for him another time.Make no mistake, the vice presidency is really going to matter in an election that is really going to matter. Because I don’t want Biden to win this election by 50.1 percent. I want it to be a landslide rejection of Trumpism and the politics of division. I want it to send a loud message around the world — to the Putins and the Netanyahus and the Orbans — that there are way more of us Americans on the center-right and the center-left, way more people who are ready to work together for the common good, than there are haters and dividers.That’s an America worth handing over to our children and grandchildren.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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    Your Wednesday Briefing: Biden’s Re-Election Bid

    Also, Ukraine prepares for a counteroffensive and South Korea’s president visits Washington.“Four more years!” union workers chanted as President Biden spoke after his announcement.Doug Mills/The New York TimesBiden is running for re-electionIn a video message, President Biden formally kicked off his campaign for the 2024 presidential race, urging voters to let him “finish this job.”His announcement did not mention Donald Trump — his most likely opponent — but the subtext of his messaging was clear: He views himself as the best person to stop Trump from reclaiming the presidency.At 80, Biden is already the oldest American president in history. (Trump is 76.) Yet he has all but cleared the Democratic presidential field despite concerns about his age. Although polls show that Democrats yearn for a fresh face in 2024, they just don’t know who that would be.Kamala Harris, his vice president, will probably face scrutiny and intense Republican criticism; she would take over if something happened to Biden, who would be 86 at the end of his tenure.Despite low unemployment, a resilient economy and an enviable record of legislative accomplishments, Biden has never quite won over the nation, or even voters in his party. Nearly seven in 10 Americans believe the U.S. is on a “wrong track.”While Republicans plan to play on those uncertainties, harping on Biden’s age and frailty, Democrats insist Biden is far better positioned than his Republican rivals.The race: Trump is currently the Republican Party’s front-runner but he may face a strong challenge from Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida. Here’s who else is running.This apartment outside Kyiv was heavily damaged during Russia’s occupation last year. Brendan Hoffman for The New York TimesUkraine’s risky counteroffensiveUkraine is preparing a new offensive against Russian forces that could begin as early as next month, U.S. officials say. The stakes are incredibly high: Without a decisive victory, Western support could weaken and Kyiv could face pressure to hold peace talks.The operation is likely to unfold in the south, near Russian-annexed Crimea. Twelve Ukrainian brigades, each with about 4,000 troops, are expected to be ready this month, leaked U.S. documents show.Ukrainian officials have said their goal is to break through dug-in Russian defenses and push Russia’s army to collapse. But American officials believe that it is unlikely the offensive will result in a dramatic shift in momentum in Ukraine’s favor.U.S. and European officials say Russia is preparing new rounds of troop mobilizations to bolster the ranks of its military. Given Russia’s bigger reserves of equipment and personnel, U.S. intelligence officials say President Vladimir Putin believes he will ultimately emerge victorious as the West’s appetite to support Ukraine subsides.Quotable: “Everything hinges on this counteroffensive,” said Alexander Vershbow, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia and senior NATO official, both for recovering territory and also having leverage in peace negotiations.Other updates:Top Russian lawyers asked the country’s highest court to repeal a law banning criticism of the armed forces.Russia cast doubt about extending a deal allowing Ukrainian grain exports. Some of Ukraine’s grain flooded markets in Eastern Europe, prompting protests from farmers.President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea is only the second leader that President Biden has invited for a state visit.Kevin Dietsch/Getty ImagesYoon’s state visit to the U.S.President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea will attend a state dinner hosted by President Biden and the first lady in Washington this week. He will deliver an address to the U.S. Congress. A big focus of Yoon’s visit is South Korea’s relations with Japan.During talks at the White House, Biden is likely to urge more steps in South Korea’s détente with Japan, which is crucial for the U.S. strategy in Asia.Both Tokyo and Seoul are moving to align themselves more closely with Washington as China promotes a vision of the world in which the U.S. has less power. North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threat was also an incentive for the countries and the U.S.Seoul and Tokyo have taken steps to address a long dispute over forced labor during World War II. This week, South Korea restored Japan’s status as a preferred trading partner, a month after Tokyo and Seoul agreed to ease export controls. Yoon also said that Japan must no longer be expected to “kneel because of our history 100 years ago.”THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificArmy soldiers walked in the ruins of the counterterrorism police station.Hazrat Ali Bacha/ReutersAn explosion at a police station in northern Pakistan killed at least 15 people. Some officials said the blasts were accidental.China said it would no longer require incoming travelers to show a negative P.C.R. test., starting Saturday. From Opinion: The Chinese government’s attempt to rewrite Hong Kong’s fight for independence is an act of repression, Louisa Lim argues.Around the WorldJordanians who were evacuated from Sudan arrived in Amman.Raad Adayleh/Associated PressA U.S.-brokered cease-fire in Sudan did not hold in Khartoum, threatening efforts to help civilians leave the country.Rupert Murdoch’s newspaper group paid Prince William to settle a phone-hacking case, according to his brother, Prince Harry.Juan Guaidó, Venezuela’s opposition leader, said he left his country for Colombia after receiving threats but was forced out and was on his way to the U.S.Other Big StoriesNorth Dakota became the latest U.S. state to enact a near-total abortion ban.A commotion broke out at an Israeli cemetery, as Itamar Ben-Gvir, the ultranationalist minister of national security, spoke during a Memorial Day service.Dr. Anthony Fauci talked about the hard lessons of the coronavirus pandemic. “Something clearly went wrong,” he said. A Morning Read“I love to have 30 minutes to be in my body and see how I really feel,” Kevon Looney said.Clara Mokri for The New York TimesKevon Looney, a U.S. basketball star, said he barely survived his first class of hot yoga. “I did a lot of laying on the mat. I felt like I was a top athlete, but they destroyed me.”Now Looney, a forward for the Golden State Warriors, practices “Joga,” yoga for jocks, before every game to help him cope with the physical and mental rigors of the N.B.A.Lives lived: Harry Belafonte smashed racial barriers in the 1950s with his music and was a leader in the civil rights movement. He died at 96.ARTS AND IDEASAn “earthrise” captured by Ispace’s lander-mounted camera.IspaceA new race to the moonIspace, a Japanese company, had aimed to complete the first moon landing by a private company. But yesterday, it lost contact with the small robotic spacecraft it was sending to the moon.The loss of signal could indicate that the lander, which had Japanese and Emirati robots aboard, crashed into the lunar surface. The spacecraft was launched in December and entered lunar orbit in March.While the lunar landing attempt by Ispace appears to have had an unsuccessful outcome, it won’t be the last company to try. Two more landers, both made by U.S. companies and funded by NASA, are scheduled to be launched to the moon this year. Two more moon landings by Ispace are also planned.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDane Tashima for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne.Add chips to this crunchy tuna sandwich.What to WatchIn “Baby J,” a Netflix comedy special, John Mulaney talks about addiction and rehab.HealthDon’t skip breakfast, and pay attention to protein, the fuel you need to start your day.Where to GoSuva, the capital of Fiji, is not on many tourists’ itineraries. But the multiethnic city defines the urban South Pacific.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Personal feud (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.Thank you for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow. — AmeliaP.S. Our newsletters team is growing. Justin Porter will be a new editor, and Matthew Cullen is officially at the helm of our Evening Briefing.“The Daily” is on Fox’s firing of Tucker Carlson.Questions? Concerns? Write to me at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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    The Long Career Arc of Joe Biden

    President Biden’s political career began with tragedy: the death of his wife, Neilia, pictured here, and baby, Naomi, in a car crash in 1972, the month after he was elected to the Senate.

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    Mr. Biden’s sons, Beau and Hunter, were injured in the crash. He was sworn into the Senate by their hospital bedside in Delaware on Jan. 5, 1973.

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    More than three decades before he would be elected president, Mr. Biden began his first presidential campaign in June 1987 alongside his second wife, Jill, and children, Hunter, Ashley and Beau.

    Keith Meyers/The New York Times

    But just three months after declaring his first presidential run, Mr. Biden withdrew from the race, felled by accusations of plagiarizing speeches and law school work.

    Jose R. Lopez/The New York Times

    At the same time he ended his presidential campaign, Mr. Biden was, as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, presiding over the Supreme Court confirmation hearings of Robert Bork.

    John Duricka/AP Photo

    By persuading several Republicans to vote against Judge Bork, who was nominated by President Ronald Reagan, he helped sink a nomination that would have shifted the court significantly to the right.

    Jose R. Lopez/The New York Times

    Four years later, Mr. Biden presided over Clarence Thomas’s Supreme Court confirmation hearings, leading an aggressive interrogation of the law professor Anita Hill that would haunt both of them.

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    Mr. Biden ended the hearings without calling witnesses willing to back up Ms. Hill’s allegations of sexual harassment by Mr. Thomas. He was confirmed and remains a Supreme Court justice.

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    The year 1994 brought two of Mr. Biden’s biggest legislative accomplishments, the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act and the Violence Against Women Act, both of which he sponsored.

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    The Violence Against Women Act has been renewed several times, though not without fights. The crime bill helped open the era of mass incarceration of Black people, and Mr. Biden said in 2020 that it had been a “mistake.”

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    As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Mr. Biden was deeply involved in negotiations to authorize the invasion of Iraq. He later said he had been wrong to think President George W. Bush “would use the authority we gave him properly.”

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    By the mid-2000s, Mr. Biden — who has traveled to Iraq multiple times — had disavowed his vote for the war and was a vocal critic of its handling.

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    Mr. Biden’s second presidential campaign, 20 years after his first, went little better: The 2008 Democratic primary quickly narrowed to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, leaving Mr. Biden in the cold.

    Josh Haner/The New York Times

    Mr. Biden dropped out after winning less than 1 percent of the vote in Iowa, and Mr. Obama chose him as his running mate that summer.

    Doug Mills/The New York Times

    Mr. Biden finally made it to the White House in 2009, albeit not in the role he had imagined, but as vice president.

    Doug Mills/The New York Times

    He oversaw the administration of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, led negotiations with Congress over fiscal standoffs and was in the Situation Room during the raid that killed Osama bin Laden.

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    In 2020, as Mr. Biden homed in on his lifelong goal of becoming president, the coronavirus shut down the country. With in-person campaigning suspended, he appeared mostly virtually from his home.

    Erin Schaff/The New York Times

    But the third time was the charm for Mr. Biden, who became one of only a handful of candidates to oust an incumbent president with his defeat of Donald J. Trump.

    Erin Schaff/The New York Times

    Forty-eight years after he was sworn into the Senate by his sons’ hospital bed, Mr. Biden once again took an oath of office in the wake of disaster.

    Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

    Two weeks after the storming of the Capitol, which took U.S. democracy to the brink and led to multiple deaths, he said, “At this hour, my friends, democracy has prevailed.”

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    Julie Chávez Rodríguez: 5 Things to Know About Biden’s Campaign Manager

    President Biden on Tuesday named Julie Chávez Rodríguez as the campaign manager for his re-election effort, elevating a senior adviser and the highest-ranking Latina in the White House to one of the most intense and scrutinized jobs in American politics.Ms. Chávez Rodríguez, 45, a veteran of the Obama administration and of Vice President Kamala Harris’s political orbit, also worked on Mr. Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign before becoming director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs. She is the granddaughter of Cesar Chávez, the iconic labor leader.Here are five things to know about the selection of Ms. Chávez Rodríguez:She has navigated Bidenworld …Mr. Biden has a small circle of close aides, some of whom have known him for years. Breaking into that world can be a challenge, and many Democrats expect that key advisers at the White House will oversee the operation.But several Democrats said that Ms. Chávez Rodríguez had impressed Mr. Biden, 80, and his top advisers, adding that she was often seen as a trustworthy team player with strong political relationships.She “didn’t start off as a Biden person, but she’s always been an honest broker,” said Cristóbal Alex, who worked on the 2020 Biden campaign and in the White House. In both places, he said, some came to embrace the slogan “in Julie we trust.”She has not managed a campaign before, a departure from the résumés of some past presidential campaign managers who had run congressional races or were steeped in party committee work.But she was a deputy campaign manager on the 2020 Biden campaign. At the White House, she dealt regularly with governors, mayors and other state and local leaders and led emergency response coordination efforts.“The ability to multitask, the ability to move on a dime, to be able to step back and sort of take in the complexity and then manage through that complexity — I can’t imagine a more challenging job than the one she’s had,” said Gov. Phil Murphy, a New Jersey Democrat and the chair of the National Governors Association. “I’m not making light of what it’s like to run a presidential campaign for a second. It’s a big job. But she’s had a big job.”… and Harris’s orbit.She is also closely connected to Ms. Harris, who may draw particular attention from voters because of Mr. Biden’s age.Ms. Chávez Rodríguez, a Californian, served as Ms. Harris’s state director when she was a California senator, and on her presidential campaign.“Her deep relationships with Biden’s core team and a deep relationship with the vice president’s office, I think, makes for the ideal candidate,” said Juan Rodriguez, a strategist who worked with her (no relation, he said) under Ms. Harris.A woman of color is now the face of Mr. Biden’s re-election campaign.During the last presidential campaign, Mr. Biden at times faced criticism over the whiteness of his inner circle.As he moves now to energize core elements of the multiracial coalition that delivered him the presidency, some Democrats said Ms. Chávez Rodríguez offered vital representation at the highest levels of American politics.“People in the Hispanic community are feeling that,” said Cecilia Muñoz, who directed the Domestic Policy Council during the Obama administration, the first Hispanic person to hold that job.She got an early start in political activism.Ms. Chávez Rodríguez, who was arrested at age 9 during a protest, has seen her family and professional lives overlap.Valerie B. Jarrett, who served as a senior adviser to former President Barack Obama, recalled that Ms. Chávez Rodríguez worked at the dedication of a national monument to her grandfather, but was reluctant to join a family photo, citing professional obligations. (Dolores Huerta, who worked closely with Mr. Chávez, insisted she join, Ms. Jarrett said.)The moment demonstrated an “egoless quality, which is, let’s say, unusual oftentimes in high levels,” Ms. Jarrett said.Whether that family legacy is meaningful to voters is another matter, said Matthew J. Garcia, a Dartmouth professor who has written about Mr. Chávez, noting that the United Farm Workers, the union he co-founded, has lost clout.“It may work with baby boomers, but the newer generation have different ideas about the U.F.W., if they have any ideas at all,” he said.Mr. Biden, however, placed a bust of Mr. Chávez in the Oval Office.She is walking into a difficult job.While Mr. Biden, as the incumbent, has many advantages, he also has clear liabilities. And in a deeply polarized country, early surveys show a competitive general election race.Against that backdrop, Ms. Chávez Rodríguez must quickly help build a huge operation and balance Mr. Biden’s governing responsibilities with campaigning, while adjusting to leading a campaign for the first time.“The traditional résumé of a campaign manager for a candidate for president of the United States is usually to be white and to be male,” Ms. Muñoz said. “If you’re a woman of color, you, almost by definition, have to come up through a nontraditional route. But I’ll tell you what — the president knows what she can do.” More

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    An Early, Early Look at Biden’s 2024 Prospects

    Almost every recent poll shows a highly competitive presidential race.In 2024 polling, President Biden narrowly leads Donald J. Trump and trails Ron DeSantis.Michael A. McCoy for The New York TimesWith Donald J. Trump indicted, Ron DeSantis faltering in the polls and Democrats still basking in their strong midterm showing, some might feel that President Biden’s re-election is all but a done deal.But as Mr. Biden announced his re-election bid Tuesday, it’s worth noting something about the early 2024 polling: The race looks close.Almost every recent survey shows a highly competitive presidential race. On average, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by 1.4 percentage points so far this year. Mr. DeSantis even leads Mr. Biden, by less than a point.Now, to be clear: I don’t think you should put a lot of stock in general election polls quite yet. But no one should be terribly confident about the outcome of a general election at this early stage either. If there were any case for early confidence, it ought to be reflected in the early polls. If Mr. Trump is doomed, why isn’t he getting trounced in the polls?At the very least, Mr. Biden seems to have his work cut out for him. His job approval and favorability ratings remain stuck in the low 40s. This makes him quite a bit weaker than in 2020, when polls showed that voters generally had a favorable view of him. Or put differently: While the 2020 election was decided by voters who liked Mr. Biden and didn’t like Mr. Trump, today it seems the 2024 election could be decided by voters who dislike both candidates.Why is Mr. Biden faring so poorly? The causes of his weak ratings have been up for debate since they tanked in August 2021. The withdrawal from Afghanistan, the surging Delta variant of the coronavirus, a stalled legislative agenda and the beginnings of inflation were all seen as possible theories. Today, all of those explanations seem to be in retreat — the story line of support for Ukraine against Russia has supplanted Afghanistan; the trend line on inflation shows some promise; Covid deaths are at their lowest point in three years — but Mr. Biden remains unpopular.At this stage, three basic possibilities remain. One is that the overall political environment remains unfavorable, presumably because of persistent inflation and partisan polarization. If so, any president in these straits would have low approval ratings and struggle until voters felt their economic fortunes were improving.Another possibility is that Mr. Biden’s early stumbles did unusual and lasting damage to perceptions of his leadership competence, probably related to his age (80). If this is true, he may not find it easy to restore the nation’s confidence as long as he doesn’t look the part.The final possibility is that the conditions may be in place for Mr. Biden’s ratings to rebound. It would not be the first time: Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and even Mr. Trump (before coronavirus) saw their approval ratings increase from the low 40s in the two years before re-election. In this scenario, Mr. Biden’s ratings would increase as a crucial segment of voters judged him against the alternatives, rather than in isolation. His re-election campaign would offer a more forceful and energetic defense of his performance, perhaps against the backdrop of low unemployment and fading inflation.Historically, the third possibility seems more likely. Mr. Biden’s age shouldn’t be understated as a legitimate factor, but he won despite his age last time, and incumbent presidents usually win re-election. The large number of voters who dislike Mr. Trump and once liked Mr. Biden create upside. The direction of the economy will be a crucial variable, of course, but at least for now the combination of low unemployment and slowly fading inflation would seem to provide enough ammunition for Mr. Biden to make his case. Still, his ratings are low enough today that they could improve markedly without securing his re-election.Three kinds of voters appear to loom large as Mr. Biden tries to reassemble the coalition that brought him to the White House in 2020: young voters, nonwhite voters and perhaps low-income voters as well. In the most recent surveys, Mr. Biden is badly underperforming among these groups. Overall, he could be running at least a net 10 points behind what he earned in 2020 among each of these groups, helping to explain why the early general election polls show a close race.Mr. Biden has shown weakness among all of these groups at various times before, so it is not necessarily surprising that he’s struggling among them again with his approval rating in the low 40s. Still, they crystallize the various challenges ahead of his campaign: his age, the economy, and voters who won’t be won over on issues like abortion or democratic principles. In his announcement video on Tuesday, Mr. Biden devoted almost all of his attention to rights, freedom, democracy and abortion. He’ll probably need a way to speak to people who are animated by more material, economic concerns than abstract liberal values.A final wild card is the Electoral College. Even if Mr. Biden does win the national vote by a modest margin, Mr. Trump could assemble a winning coalition in the battleground states that decide the presidency, as he did in 2016.In 2020, Mr. Biden won the national vote by 4.4 percentage points, but barely squeaked out wins by less than one percentage point in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. To win, he needed one of the three.At the moment, there’s a case the Electoral College will be less favorable to Mr. Trump, relative to the national vote, than it was in 2020. In the midterm elections, the gap between the popular vote for U.S. House and a hypothetical Electoral College result based on the House vote essentially evaporated, down from nearly four points in 2020. It’s possible this was simply a product of unusually poor Republican nominees at the top of the ticket in many of the most competitive states, but there are plausible reasons it might also reflect underlying electoral trends.The renewed importance of abortion, for instance, might help Democrats most in relatively white, secular areas, which would tend to help them more in the Northern battlegrounds than elsewhere. “Democracy” may also play well as an issue in the battlegrounds, as these are the very states where the stop-the-steal movement threatened to overturn the results of the last election. Meanwhile, Mr. Biden’s relative weakness among nonwhite voters, who are disproportionately concentrated in noncompetitive states, might do more to hurt his tallies in states like California or Illinois than Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.Given the idiosyncratic and localized nature of last year’s midterm results, it would be a mistake to be confident that the Republican Electoral College advantage is coming to an end. If that edge persists, the modest Biden lead in national polls today wouldn’t be enough for him to secure re-election. More

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    Biden buscará la reelección y así prepara la posible revancha con Trump

    El presidente de EE. UU. anunció formalmente que se candidatiza a un segundo mandato, presentándose como el demócrata mejor posicionado para impedir que Donald Trump vuelva a ocupar la Casa Blanca.At 80, President Biden is already the oldest president in American history and, by the end of a potential second term, he would be 86.Doug Mills/The New York TimesWASHINGTON — El presidente de Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, anunció que buscará un segundo mandato de cuatro años en un video publicado en línea la mañana del martes en el que instaba a los votantes a permitirle “terminar este trabajo” y abriendo la posibilidad de una revancha con el expresidente Donald Trump.En el video, de tres minutos y cuatro segundos, Biden que ha pasado sus primeros años en el cargo luchando por la democracia y la libertad. Y advierte que los “extremistas de MAGA” en todo el país —al emplear las siglas en inglés del lema de Trump, “Hagamos a Estados Unidos grandioso de nuevo”—amenazan dichas libertades.“Cuando me postulé para presidente hace cuatro años, dije que estábamos en una batalla por el alma de Estados Unidos. Y así seguimos todavía”, dice Biden en el video y añade luego: “Por eso estoy presentándome para la reelección”.La declaración formal de la candidatura de Biden sucede cuatro años después del día que anunció que buscaría la presidencia en 2019, declarando en aquel entonces que era crucial evitar que Trump ganara un segundo periodo.Biden triunfó en 2020. Pero si Trump se convierte en el nominado de los republicanos —ahora es el favorito— el legado de Biden estará determinado por si será capaz de bloquear una vez más el regreso de Trump al poder.Aquí hay más que debes saber:Biden hablará a trabajadores del sindicato a las 12:30 pm hora del este en Washington sobre los planes para ayudar a la fabricación y la clase media. El evento hace un guiño a su anuncio de 2020, cuando habló en un salón sindical de Pittsburgh después de publicar un video de lanzamiento de campaña en línea.Es probable que ni la agenda de Biden ni su discurso cambien de inmediato. Sus colaboradores dijeron que se esperaba que mantuviera los mismos temas en los que se había centrado durante meses: reclamar mérito por una economía que mejora y atacar a los republicanos en los temas relacionados con el aborto, los recortes de impuestos, las armas y la intolerancia. Algo que comenzará rápidamente es la recaudación de fondos. Los principales donantes del presidente han sido invitados a una cumbre en Washington el viernes para comenzar a reunir fondos.Biden ha despejado prácticamente la carrera presidencial demócrata a pesar de las dudas que suscita su edad —a sus 80 años, ya es el presidente estadounidense de más edad de la historia— y de los recelos persistentes de un gran número de votantes de su partido. Aunque las encuestas muestran repetidamente que los demócratas anhelan una cara nueva en 2024, no saben quién sería.Biden eligió a Julie Chávez Rodríguez, una de las principales asesoras y la latina de más alto rango en la Casa Blanca, para ser su directora de campaña. Quentin Fulks, quien dirigió la campaña de 2022 para el senador Raphael Warnock de Georgia, será su suplente. Pero otros miembros del círculo cercano de Biden, incluida Jen O’Malley Dillon, su directora de campaña anterior, y Anita Dunn, su gurú de las comunicaciones, permanecerán en la Casa Blanca por ahora.El presidente no menciona por nombre a Trump en el video. Pero el trasfondo es claro: empieza con las escenas del ataque al Capitolio el 6 de enero. Cuando Biden dice las palabras “extremistas de MAGA”, la pantalla muestra una imagen de Trump con el brazo sobre el hombro del gobernador de Florida Ron DeSantis, otro potencial rival republicano. Aunque el equipo de Biden está apostando a que probablemente su oponente será Trump, el presidente ya ha empezado a arreciar sus críticas contra todos los republicanos. More

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    Biden Wants to Be President Into His 80s. How Might Age Affect His Health?

    Experts weigh in on octogenarian health.President Biden has announced his plans to run for re-election in 2024. If he wins, he will be 82 when he takes office and 86 when his term ends — which would establish him, for a second time, as the oldest person to assume the U.S. presidency. (Donald Trump is not far behind; he will be 78 during the 2024 election and would enter octogenarian territory during another presidential term.)President Biden is “a healthy, vigorous 80-year-old male,” according to a February report from the White House physician, Dr. Kevin C. O’Connor. Although he was recently treated for basal cell carcinoma, a common and slow-growing skin cancer, Mr. Biden has no major medical problems, doesn’t smoke or drink and exercises at least five days a week.“The spectrum of health at older ages varies so widely,” said Dr. Holly Holmes, a professor and the chair in gerontology at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston. “As we get older, we are more and more unlike our peers, and it becomes harder to generalize what a ‘typical’ 80-year-old would be like.”Dr. R. Sean Morrison, a professor and the chair in geriatrics at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, added that the changes that occur during aging happen to different people at different times. Some 85-year-olds have healthier bodies than some 65-year-olds, and much of the variation comes down to genes and a person’s lifestyle before the age of 60.Yet, as people enter their 80s, and even their mid-to-late 70s, some standard age-related shifts tend to occur, like muscle loss and a drop in bone strength, that make people more prone to disease and injury.Here’s a head-to-toe snapshot of the body and mind of an octogenarian and the potential problems doctors look out for.BrainMost healthy people in their 80s don’t have trouble performing complex cognitive tasks such as problem-solving and planning, Dr. Morrison said, but they may find it harder to multitask and learn new things. Some may struggle to remember words. Reaction time can also slow, but usually only slightly — on the order of fractions of a millisecond, Dr. Morrison said.Scientists don’t know exactly why these changes happen, but the brain does get slightly smaller with age because of brain cell loss, so that could be playing a role, said Dr. Scott Kaiser, director of geriatric cognitive health at Pacific Neuroscience Institute in Santa Monica, Calif. Interestingly, certain cognitive skills — such as vocabulary and abstract reasoning — may stay constant or even improve with age, also for unknown reasons, he said.Dementia does become more common with age, but it still only affects a minority of adults in their 80s. According to the National Health and Aging Trends Study, 10.9 percent of adults ages 80 to 84, and 18.7 percent of adults ages 85 to 89, dealt with dementia in 2019. “These conditions are not a normal or inevitable part of aging,” Dr. Kaiser said.Eyes and earsVision tends to worsen over time. Octogenarians often need reading glasses and become more sensitive to glare, Dr. Morrison said. Nearly 70 percent of adults over 80 have cataracts, a clouding of the lens of the eye, but the condition can be treated effectively with surgery, he said.Age-related hearing loss is another common problem. First, people lose the ability to hear high-frequency sounds such as bird chirps and alarm clocks; this can start early, even in a person’s 30s or 40s. Low-frequency changes, affecting the ability to hear men’s voices and bass sounds in music, come later. Hearing loss can be treated with hearing aids — now available over the counter — or other devices, and it’s crucial to do so: “We have increasing data now that suggests that people who go longer with untreated hearing loss and don’t get hearing correction are more likely to develop dementia or diseases like Alzheimer’s disease,” Dr. Morrison said.Heart and lungsAs a person ages, heart rate slows slightly, and the heart can’t beat as fast during physical activity, which can make aerobic exercise more challenging. That said, an aging healthy heart typically “functions quite well,” said Dr. Lona Mody, a geriatrician at Michigan Medicine.Doctors monitor for heart disease in their octogenarian patients. “Blood vessels become stiffer with age, and this leads to higher blood pressure,” Dr. Mody said, which can increase the risk of hypertension and heart disease. According to the American Heart Association, 83 percent of men and 87 percent of women age 80 and older have heart disease, sometimes requiring the use of medications or surgery. Mr. Biden has asymptomatic atrial fibrillation — an irregular heartbeat — and takes apixaban (Eliquis), an anticoagulant drug that is often prescribed to help prevent blood clots and strokes. He also takes rosuvastatin (Crestor) to lower his cholesterol.Lung capacity often slightly drops with age because of changes in the strength and elasticity of the lung tissue and diaphragm, which can make breathing a bit harder, Dr. Mody said. One disease doctors look out for is chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, an inflammatory lung disease seen in just under 11 percent of people 65 and over.Digestive systemPeople in their 80s tend to eat less than they used to, in part because “food doesn’t taste quite the same,” Dr. Morrison said. Over time, people lose taste buds and their sense of smell, he said, both of which affect how much they enjoy eating. This helps to explain why older adults have an increased risk of nutritional deficiencies.But seniors also need fewer calories than younger people because of losses in lean muscle mass and slowing metabolism. According to the government’s Dietary Guidelines for Americans, women age 60 and older should consume a minimum of 1,600 calories a day, and men age 60 and older a minimum of 2,000 calories a day (as opposed to a minimum of 1,800 for women and 2,400 for men ages 19 to 30).Older people are at greater risk for heartburn and gastrointestinal reflux. Mr. Biden’s occasional coughing and throat-clearing are tied to gastroesophageal reflux, and he takes famotidine (Pepcid) as needed to treat his symptoms.Octogenarians digest food more slowly, too. Research suggests that 34 percent of women and 26 percent of men age 84 or older experience constipation.Bones and jointsBones become more brittle with age. The body starts to reabsorb the minerals that strengthen them, such as calcium and phosphate, in part because the intestines can’t absorb what is needed from food as effectively as they used to. For women, this degeneration is accelerated by the drop in estrogen after menopause, which reduces bone density.Decreased bone density puts older people at an increased risk for bone fractures and osteoporosis. In 2020, when Mr. Biden was the president-elect, he had a hairline fracture in his foot, requiring him to wear a walking boot as he healed. The bone injuries that doctors worry about most are hip fractures, which hospitalize more than 300,000 Americans over the age of 65 every year. “Hip fractures are one of the most common reasons for hospitalization among people 85 and over,” said Dr. Susan Wehry, a geriatrician at the University of New England. Recovery is often difficult because of complications such as infections, sometimes picked up at the hospital, and internal bleeding, or because conditions such as heart disease slow healing.Joints can also become more painful because the bones and cartilage that make up the joints start to wear down. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, nearly half of all Americans over 65 have been diagnosed with osteoarthritis, which causes joint pain and stiffness. President Biden has been diagnosed with osteoarthritis of the spine, which has stiffened his gait.SkinThe risk of skin cancer increases as people get older. The average age at which Americans are diagnosed with melanoma, a potentially deadly skin cancer, is 65. Men are at higher risk for melanoma than women. Dr. Holmes recommends that people in their 80s see a doctor or dermatologist once a year for a skin check.Non-melanoma forms of skin cancer, such as basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, affect more than three million Americans a year. These cancers grow slower than melanomas and are highly treatable when detected and removed early. In February, President Biden, who has said he spent a lot of time in the sun during his youth, had a basal cell carcinoma removed from his chest. He also had several other non-melanoma skin cancers removed before his presidency.Strength and balanceMost healthy people in their mid-80s can and should engage in physical activity, and many remain strong and agile, Dr. Holmes said. She encourages patients to participate in aerobic exercise and weight training a couple of days a week and to stretch at least once a week, but sometimes recommends modifications for patients with pain, orthopedic problems or cardiac issues.Adults “start to lose muscle mass and start to gain fat” as they get older, Dr. Morrison said. Between 42 and 62 percent of people in their mid-80s have sarcopenia, a disease characterized by loss of muscle mass and strength. Common symptoms include difficulty walking, ascending stairs and holding shopping bags.In addition, the spaces between the spinal vertebrae dry and compress, causing people to lean forward, which can affect their balance, Dr. Morrison said. People in their 80s tend to walk slowly and have a short gait, which also worsens balance, he added.In some older adults, the insulating layer that surrounds nerves and helps them communicate with one another, called myelin, starts to break down. This can slow reflexes and make people clumsy, Dr. Kaiser said.“One important consequence of these age-related changes to the brain and overall nervous system — along with changes to other systems and a broad range of other factors — is an increased risk of falls,” Dr. Kaiser said, which in turn can become more dangerous because bones are weaker and break more easily.Stress, stamina and sleepPeople in their mid-80s tend to have lower energy than younger people, so they fatigue more easily, Dr. Morrison said.Dr. Mody added that stress and changes to routine can be “harder to bounce back from” because older people’s tissues and organs take a longer time to recover after stresses or injuries. People may also take longer to recover from colds, Covid-19 and other infections, as the immune system becomes less responsive with age.Many older adults don’t sleep well, in part because they spend less time in deep slow-wave sleep, which makes them more prone to middle-of-the-night wake-ups. “Eighty-year-olds tend to sleep about an hour less than younger adults,” Dr. Morrison said.Still, it’s important to remember that everybody ages differently, and that age does not define a person’s health. Many people in their 80s are healthier than people 20 years younger, Dr. Mody said, and the choices they make late in life matter, too: Research suggests that adopting healthy behaviors even in the ninth decade can extend one’s life.Many octogenarians, Dr. Holmes said, are “quite resilient.” More

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    As Biden Runs Again, the Map, Issues and Incumbency Favor Democrats

    Nearly seven in 10 Americans believe their country is on a “wrong track.” The incumbent president will be 81 on Election Day 2024. More than half of the voters in his own party don’t want him to run for re-election.Yet as President Biden embarks on his campaign for a second term, Democratic officials firmly believe he is beginning his bid on Tuesday from ground that is far more solid than his personal standing indicates. Democratic unity has stifled even the hint of an intraparty insurgency. The issues dominating the nation’s politics have largely worked in the Democrats’ favor. And a battleground that has narrowed to only a handful of states means, at least for now, that the 2024 campaign will be waged on favorable Democratic terrain.“I’m always going to be worried because we’re a very divided country, and presidential races are going to be close, no matter who is in it,” said Anne Caprara, who helped lead Hillary Clinton’s super PAC in 2016 and is now chief of staff to Illinois’s Democratic governor, J.B. Pritzker. “But for the first time in my career, I think Republicans have painted themselves into a terrible position. They’re losing and they can’t seem to see that.”Without doubt, Mr. Biden’s personal liabilities are tugging at the Democrats’ well-worn worry strings. Despite low unemployment, a remarkably resilient economy and an enviable record of legislative accomplishments in his first two years, the octogenarian president has never quite won over the nation, or even voters in his party. A new NBC News poll has Mr. Biden losing to a generic Republican presidential candidate, 47 percent to 41 percent.“President Biden is in remarkably weak shape for an incumbent running for re-election,” said Bill McInturff, a veteran Republican pollster who co-directs the NBC News poll.Republicans plan to play on those uncertainties, harping on Mr. Biden’s age and frailty and painting him as the weakest incumbent president to run for re-election since Jimmy Carter tried 44 years ago. The campaign of former President Donald J. Trump is already looking past the coming Republican nomination fight to contrast what it sees as the strength of personality of an aggressive challenger against a vulnerable incumbent.“This is a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump,” said Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, adding, “If they think that is their greatest strength, they are going to have a long, miserable year.”But the political fundamentals look significantly better than Mr. Biden’s personal approval.By avoiding a serious primary challenge, Mr. Biden will not be spending the next year fighting with members of his own party on difficult issues like immigration, crime, gender and abortion in ways that might turn off swing voters. Instead, he can bide his time attending ribbon cuttings and groundbreakings for roads and bridges, semiconductor plants, electric vehicle manufacturers and solar energy projects that stem from his three biggest legislative achievements — the infrastructure bill, the “chips and science” law and the Inflation Reduction Act, with its huge tax incentives for clean energy.President Biden and the first lady, Jill Biden, attending a ceremony at the White House on Monday, the day before he formally declared his candidacy for a second term. Doug Mills/The New York TimesThe mere presence of Mr. Trump in the Republican primary race is helping the Democrats make the 2024 campaign a choice between the two parties, not a referendum on the incumbent, a far more difficult challenge for the party in power, said Jim Messina, who managed the last successful presidential re-election campaign, Barack Obama’s in 2012. Early polls, both in key states like Wisconsin and nationally, have Mr. Biden holding onto a slim lead over Mr. Trump, but even with or behind Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.The Republicans’ narrow control of the House has also given Mr. Biden a foil in the months before a Republican presidential nominee emerges, just as the Republican Congress helped Mr. Obama.And then there is the map.The 2022 midterms should have been a disaster for a president with low approval ratings. Instead, in two critical states — Pennsylvania and Michigan — the Democratic Party greatly strengthened its hand and its electoral infrastructure, with victories in the governors’ races in both states, the Pennsylvania House flipping to the Democrats and the Michigan Legislature falling to complete Democratic control for the first time in nearly 40 years.At the outset of the 2024 campaign, two-thirds of the Upper Midwestern “Blue Wall” that Mr. Trump shattered in 2016 and Mr. Biden rebuilt in 2020 appear to favor the Democrats.As partisanship intensifies in Democratic and Republican states, battlegrounds like Florida, Ohio and Iowa have moved firmly toward Republicans, but other battlegrounds like Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire look reliably Democratic.That has elevated just a handful of states as potentially decisive next year: Wisconsin, the third brick in the “Blue Wall”; Georgia, once reliably Republican; Arizona; and Pennsylvania, especially if the political winds shift in the Republicans’ favor. If Mr. Biden can lock down Pennsylvania, he would need to win only one of the other big battlegrounds — Wisconsin, Georgia or Arizona — to get the necessary Electoral College votes in 2024. Even if he lost Nevada, he would still win as long as he secures New Hampshire and doesn’t split the Electoral College votes of Maine.Wisconsin had a split decision in 2022, with the Democratic governor, Tony Evers, winning re-election while the Republican senator, Ron Johnson, also prevailed. But this month, an expensive, hard-fought State Supreme Court race in Wisconsin went to the Democratic-backed candidate by 11 percentage points, a remarkable margin.Democrats won the governorship in Arizona in 2022. And while they lost the governor’s race decisively in Georgia, they eked out the Senate contest between the incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and the Republican, Herschel Walker.Those recent electoral successes point to the other major factor that appears to be playing in the Democrats’ favor: the issues. The erosion of abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has continued to dominate electoral outcomes in key states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And abortion is not fading, in large part because the socially conservative core of the Republican electorate keeps driving red states and conservative judges forward on abortion restrictions.The tragic drumbeat of mass shootings has kept gun control high on the political agenda as well, an issue that Democrats believe will help them with suburban voters in key swing states and will trap Republicans between a base of voters who want no compromise on gun rights and a broader electorate that increasingly favors restrictions.Republicans have issues that could favor them, too. Crime helped deliver House seats in New York and California, which secured the narrow House majority for the G.O.P. And transgender politics might help Republicans with some swing voters. A poll for National Public Radio last summer found that 63 percent of Americans opposed allowing transgender women and girls to compete on teams that align with their gender identity, while broader support for L.G.B.T. rights has only gained ground.But a hotly contested primary is likely to drag the eventual nominee to the right, even on issues that could otherwise favor his party. Mr. DeSantis, widely seen as Mr. Trump’s most serious challenger, signed a ban on abortion in his state after six weeks, a threshold before many women know they are pregnant.And at some point, Republicans’ drive against transgender people and their fixation on social issues may appear to be bullying — or simply far afield from real issues in the lives of swing voters, said Ms. Caprara, the chief of staff for the Illinois governor.“There’s this toxic soup between abortion, guns, gay rights, library books, African American history,” she said. “It just comes across to people as, ‘Who are these people?’”The biggest issue, however, may be the storm cloud on the horizon that may or may not burst — the economy. In 2020, Mr. Biden became one of the few presidential candidates in modern history to have triumphed over the candidate who was more trusted on the economy in polls.Since then, the surge of job creation from the trough of the coronavirus pandemic has shattered monthly employment records, while unemployment rates — especially for workers of color — are at or near their lowest levels ever. Inflation, which peaked near 10 percent, is now at about 5 percent.Yet Mr. Biden continues to get low marks on his economic stewardship, and those marks could deteriorate as the Federal Reserve continues to tamp down inflation with higher interest rates, warned Mr. Messina, the former Obama campaign manager. A new poll for CNBC found that 53 percent of Americans expect the economy will get worse, compared with 34 percent when Mr. Biden took office.“Today, I’d rather be Joe Biden,” Mr. Messina said. “But I wish I knew where the economy is going to be, because that’s the one thing hanging out there that nobody can control.” More