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      Netanyahu Set to Win Israel’s Election and Return to Power Within Weeks

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      After five elections in less than four years, Israel will have a stable government for the first time since 2019. But Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition could test the constitutional framework and social fabric.JERUSALEM — Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s opposition leader, was set on Thursday to seal victory in Israel’s general election, putting him on track to return as prime minister at the helm of one of the most right-wing governments in Israeli history.Vote counting was expected to finish on Thursday afternoon, and Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc is almost guaranteed to score a clear victory, according to near final results published by the electoral authority. That would ensure that Israel, after five elections in less than four years, will have a cohesive government with a steady majority for the first time since 2019.The far right’s strong showing was linked to fears among right-wing Jews about perceived threats to Israel’s Jewish identity and to their personal safety. A wave of interethnic riots in May 2021 unsettled their sense of security, a feeling that was compounded months later by the inclusion — for the first time in Israeli history — of an Arab party in the coalition government.Those dual concerns drove some right-wing Israelis to more extreme parties in the most recent election.Although the coalition led by Mr. Netanyahu would provide a stable government, it would nevertheless unsettle Israel’s constitutional framework and social fabric.Supporters of the far-right politician Itamar Ben-Gvir in the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh last month.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesCurrently standing trial on corruption charges, Mr. Netanyahu says that he will not use his authority to upend that process. But some of his coalition partners have said they will push to legalize one of the crimes he is accused of committing, or even to end the trial entirely.His return would also test some of Israel’s diplomatic relations, most notably with the United States and with the Persian Gulf states with which Israel recently formed alliances.Mr. Netanyahu himself oversaw the creation of those alliances during his last spell in office. But his new coalition allies’ priorities are likely to heighten tensions with the Palestinians, which could embarrass Israel’s Arab and American partners.These tensions underscore the complexity of Mr. Netanyahu’s return: As Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, he is a known quantity who has defined contemporary Israeli society perhaps more than any other politician. But his decision to ally with the far right, untrammeled by any centrist or leftist forces, takes Israel into the unknown.Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right allies want to weaken and overhaul Israel’s justice system, giving politicians more control of judicial appointments and loosening the Supreme Court’s oversight of parliamentary process. Those allies could make such policies a condition of their joining his coalition.They also want to end Palestinian autonomy in parts of the occupied West Bank and have a history of antagonizing the Palestinian minority within Israel itself, a track record that has raised fears that the new government could exacerbate Jewish-Arab tensions in Israel and curb any remaining hope of an end to the occupation.A separation barrier in the West Bank city of Bethlehem in April. Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right allies want to end Palestinian autonomy in parts of the occupied West Bank.Samar Hazboun for The New York TimesMr. Netanyahu may not formally return to power until the second half of November. State protocols mean that the Israeli president, Isaac Herzog, has until Nov. 16 to invite Mr. Netanyahu to assemble a government, and Mr. Netanyahu’s own coalition negotiations might take even longer.Foreign-policy experts predict that Mr. Netanyahu, once back in office, will be forced to tread an awkward path between mollifying hard-line allies at home while avoiding confrontations with international partners that support a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.The State Department has already hinted that the Biden administration has reservations about Mr. Netanyahu’s likely coalition partners.“We hope that all Israeli government officials will continue to share the values of an open, democratic society, including tolerance and respect for all in civil society, particularly for minority groups,” said the department’s spokesman, Ned Price, when asked about the election result on Wednesday.Aaron David Miller, a former senior official at the State Department, said that Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu would try to avoid conflict because they have other, more pressing priorities.But, Mr. Miller said, “At a minimum, Biden and Netanyahu will likely annoy the hell out of one another.”“The unprecedented character of the new Israeli government, the most right-wing in Israel’s history, will — to say the least — sharpen the differences,” he added.Mr. Netanyahu was the primary architect of the landmark diplomatic relationships that Israel forged in 2020 with Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates, and re-election is not expected to upend those new ties, even if it presents them with new challenges.Mr. Netanyahu, seated second from left, with President Donald J. Trump and officials from Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates at the signing of a breakthrough accord at the White House in 2020.Doug Mills/The New York TimesThough none of Israel’s new partners have renounced the Palestinian cause, analysts say that Persian Gulf leaders now consider their own national interests to be a greater immediate priority.“From the perspective of any of the Gulf states, normalization is tied to their long-term strategic plans and has little to do with the day-to-day of Israeli politics,” said Elham Fakhro, a research fellow at the Center for Gulf Studies at Exeter University in England. “The same way as U.S. presidents come and go, they see any relationship with Israel as transcending short-term political dynamics,” she added.Just as he went along with the Oslo accords in the 1990s, after criticizing them while in opposition, Mr. Netanyahu is also expected to stick to a recent maritime deal with Lebanon that he condemned when it was negotiated.But his election may make it harder to formalize ties between Israel and the most influential Arab country, Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government recently made small diplomatic gestures to Israel, like allowing Israeli planes to fly through its airspace, but said it would not agree to full diplomatic relations until the creation of a Palestinian state.“It is unlikely that there will be traction on the Saudi-Israeli diplomatic relationship,” Dr. Fakhro said. In exchange for normalizing ties, she added, Saudi Arabia “would expect something major in return. Netanyahu’s approach — by definition — rejects the possibility of major concessions.”In Israel, Mr. Netanyahu’s opponents fear that his return will empower the more extreme figures in his coalition. One of them, Bezalel Smotrich, wants to be defense minister; another, Itamar Ben-Gvir, wants to oversee the police force.Itamar Ben-Gvir, left, and Bezalel Smotrich taking part in a march near Jerusalem’s Old City in 2021. They are among the more extreme figures in Mr. Netanyahu’s likely coalition.Emmanuel Dunand/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesUntil 2020, Mr. Ben-Gvir hung a portrait in his home of an Israeli settler who shot dead 29 Palestinians in a West Bank mosque in 1994. As a teenager, Mr. Ben-Gvir was barred from army service because he was considered too extremist. He also describes a hard-line rabbi who wanted to strip Arab Israelis of their citizenship as his “hero.”Mr. Netanyahu attempted to calm fears about his return this week, promising in a speech on Wednesday morning that he would lead “a national government that will look after everyone.”He also pledged to heal the divisions within Israeli society, adding that the country “respects all its citizens.”But many in Israel’s Palestinian minority, which forms roughly a fifth of the population, remained unconvinced and afraid.“These are difficult days,” said Aida Touma-Suleiman, a Palestinian lawmaker in the Israeli Parliament. “This isn’t the ordinary, classic right that we know. This is a change — in which a racist, violent right-wing threatens to turn into fascism.”Myra Noveck More

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      White House Deletes Tweet Crediting Biden With Social Security Increase

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      The automatic cost of living increase that Social Security beneficiaries are receiving is a result of soaring inflation, not a policy achievement enacted by President Biden.WASHINGTON — The White House on Wednesday deleted a widely mocked Twitter post that misleadingly attributed a recent increase in Social Security payments to older Americans to “President Biden’s leadership.”The tweet, which had been posted on Tuesday, was removed without explanation a day later after it had been skewered by critics and contradicted by a new Twitter feature that allows users to fact-check erroneous assertions. The automatic 8.7 percent cost of living increase that Social Security beneficiaries are receiving is a result of inflation running at a four-decade high, not a policy achievement enacted by Mr. Biden.When asked on Wednesday about the removal of the tweet, Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, suggested that it had lacked sufficient context.“Look, the tweet was not complete,” she said. “Usually when we put out a tweet, we post it with context, and it did not have that context.”Ms. Jean-Pierre went on to say that Medicare premiums are decreasing even as Social Security payments go up, suggesting that such information would have rounded out the original Twitter post.“That’s a little bit of context that was not included,” she said. “This means that seniors will have a chance to get ahead of inflation due to the rare combination of rising benefits and falling premiums.”In the final days before the midterm elections next week, Mr. Biden has repeatedly criticized Republicans for proposals that could scale back social safety net programs. He has insisted that he and the Democrats would protect and bolster Social Security and Medicare.The tweet that the White House deleted echoed a remark that the president made this week during a speech in Florida, when he declared, “On my watch, for the first time in 10 years, seniors are getting an increase in their Social Security checks.”When pressed about the similar sentiments, Ms. Jean-Pierre suggested that Mr. Biden was not trying to take credit for the cost of living increase.“We believe that we — we want to lay the — we want to lay our argument out fully,” Ms. Jean-Pierre said. “And that was important to do, as we put out, you know, information like that or as we put out a tweet.”She added: “And that was an incomplete tweet.” More

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      Full Transcript of President Biden’s Speech on Democracy

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      President Biden delivered remarks Wednesday on democracy, political violence and the midterm elections in a televised address from Washington’s Union Station. The following is a transcript of his remarks, as recorded by The New York Times.Good evening, everyone.Just a few days ago, a little before 2:30 a.m. in the morning, a man smashed the back windows and broke into the home of the speaker of the House of Representatives, the third-highest-ranking official in America. He carried in his backpack zip ties, duct tape, rope and a hammer.As he told the police, he had come looking for Nancy Pelosi to take her hostage, to interrogate her, to threaten to break her kneecaps. But she wasn’t there. Her husband, my friend Paul Pelosi, was home alone. The assailant tried to take Paul hostage. He woke him up, and he wanted to tie him up. The assailant ended up using a hammer to smash Paul’s skull. Thankfully, by the grace of God, Paul survived.All this happened after the assault, and it just — it’s hard to even say. It’s hard to even say. After the assailant entered the home asking: “Where’s Nancy? Where’s Nancy?” Those are the very same words used by the mob when they stormed the United States Capitol on January the 6th, when they broke windows, kicked in the doors, brutally attacked law enforcement, roamed the corridors hunting for officials and erected gallows to hang the former vice president, Mike Pence.It was an enraged mob that had been whipped up into a frenzy by a president repeating over and over again the Big Lie, that the election of 2020 had been stolen. It’s a lie that fueled the dangerous rise in political violence and voter intimidation over the past two years.Even before January the 6th, we saw election officials and election workers in a number of states subject to menacing calls, physical threats, even threats to their very lives. In Georgia, for example, the Republican secretary of state and his family were subjected to death threats because he refused to break the law and give into the defeated president’s demand: Just find him 11,780 votes. Just find me 11,780 votes.Election workers, like Shaye Moss and her mother, Ruby Freeman, were harassed and threatened just because they had the courage to do their job and stand up for the truth, to stand up for our democracy. This institution, this intimidation, this violence against Democrats, Republicans and nonpartisan officials just doing their jobs, are the consequence of lies told for power and profit, lies of conspiracy and malice, lies repeated over and over to generate a cycle of anger, hate, vitriol and even violence.In this moment, we have to confront those lies with the truth. The very future of our nation depends on it. My fellow Americans, we’re facing a defining moment, an inflection point. We must with one overwhelming unified voice speak as a country and say there’s no place, no place for voter intimidation or political violence in America. Whether it’s directed at Democrats or Republicans. No place, period. No place ever.I speak today near Capitol Hill, near the U.S. Capitol, the citadel of our democracy. I know there’s a lot at stake in these midterm elections, from our economy, to the safety of our streets, to our personal freedoms, to the future of health care and Social Security, Medicare. It’s all important. But we’ll have our differences, we’ll have our difference of opinion. And that’s what it’s supposed to be.But there’s something else at stake, democracy itself. I’m not the only one who sees it. Recent polls have shown an overwhelming majority of Americans believe our democracy is at risk, that our democracy is under threat. They too see that democracy is on the ballot this year, and they’re deeply concerned about it.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Governor’s Races: Democrats and Republicans are heading into the final stretch of more than a dozen competitive contests for governor. Some battleground races could also determine who controls the Senate.Democrats’ Mounting Anxiety: Top Democratic officials are openly second-guessing their party’s pitch and tactics, saying Democrats have failed to unite around one central message.Social Security and Medicare: Republicans, eyeing a midterms victory, are floating changes to the safety net programs. Democrats have seized on the proposals to galvanize voters.Debunking Misinformation: Falsehoods and rumors are flourishing ahead of Election Day, especially in Pennsylvania. We debunked five of the most widespread voting-related claims.So today, I appeal to all Americans, regardless of party, to meet this moment of national and generational importance. We must vote knowing what’s at stake and not just the policy of the moment, but institutions that have held us together as we’ve sought a more perfect union are also at stake. We must vote knowing who we have been, what we’re at risk of becoming.Look, my fellow Americans, the old expression, “Freedom is not free,” it requires constant vigilance. From the very beginning, nothing has been guaranteed about democracy in America. Every generation has had to defend it, protect it, preserve it, choose it. For that’s what democracy is. It’s a choice, a decision of the people, by the people and for the people. The issue couldn’t be clearer, in my view.We the people must decide whether we will have fair and free elections, and every vote counts. We the people must decide whether we’re going to sustain a republic, where reality’s accepted, the law is obeyed and your vote is truly sacred.We the people must decide whether the rule of law will prevail or whether we will allow the dark forces and thirst for power put ahead of the principles that have long guided us.You know, American democracy is under attack because the defeated former president of the United States refused to accept the results of the 2020 election. If he refuses to accept the will of the people, if he refuses to accept the fact that he lost, he’s abused his power and put the loyalty to himself before loyalty to the Constitution. And he’s made a big lie an article of faith in the MAGA Republican Party, the minority of that party.The great irony about the 2020 election is that it’s the most attacked election in our history. And, yet, there’s no election in our history that we can be more certain of its results. Every legal challenge that could have been brought was brought. Every recount that could have been undertaken was undertaken. Every recount confirmed the results. Wherever fact or evidence had been demanded, the Big Lie has been proven to be just that, a big lie. Every single time.Yet now extreme MAGA Republicans aim to question not only the legitimacy of past elections, but elections being held now and into the future. The extreme MAGA element of the Republican Party, which is a minority of that party, as I said earlier, but it’s its driving force. It’s trying to succeed where they failed in 2020, to suppress the right of voters and subvert the electoral system itself. That means denying your right to vote and deciding whether your vote even counts.Instead of waiting until an election is over, they’re starting well before it. They’re starting now. They’ve emboldened violence and intimidation of voters and election officials. It’s estimated that there are more than 300 election deniers on the ballot all across America this year. We can’t ignore the impact this is having on our country. It’s damaging, it’s corrosive and it’s destructive.And I want to be very clear, this is not about me, it’s about all of us. It’s about what makes America America. It’s about the durability of our democracy. For democracies are more than a form of government. They’re a way of being, a way of seeing the world, a way that defines who we are, what we believe, why we do what we do. Democracy is simply that fundamental.We must, in this moment, dig deep within ourselves and recognize that we can’t take democracy for granted any longer. With democracy on the ballot, we have to remember these first principles. Democracy means the rule of the people, not the rule of monarchs or the moneyed, but the rule of the people.Autocracy is the opposite of democracy. It means the rule of one, one person, one interest, one ideology, one party. To state the obvious, the lives of billions of people, from antiquity till now, have been shaped by the battle between these competing forces, between the aspirations of the many and the greed and power of the few, between the people’s right for self-determination, and the self-seeking autocrat, between the dreams of a democracy and the appetites of an autocracy.What we’re doing now is going to determine whether democracy will long endure and, in my view, is the biggest of questions, whether the American system that prizes the individual bends toward justice and depends on the rule of law, whether that system will prevail. This is the struggle we’re now in, a struggle for democracy, a struggle for decency and dignity, a struggle for prosperity and progress, a struggle for the very soul of America itself.Make no mistake, democracy is on the ballot for all of us. We must remember that democracy is a covenant. We need to start looking out for each other again, seeing ourselves as we the people, not as entrenched enemies. This is a choice we can make. Disunion and chaos are not inevitable. There’s been anger before in America. There’s been division before in America. But we’ve never given up on the American experiment. And we can’t do that now.The remarkable thing about American democracy is this. Just enough of us on just enough occasions have chosen not to dismantle democracy, but to preserve democracy. We must choose that path again. Because democracy is on the ballot, we have to remember that even in our darkest moments, there are fundamental values and beliefs that unite us as Americans, and they must unite us now.What are they? Well, I think, first, we believe the vote in America’s sacred, to be honored, not denied; respected, not dismissed; counted, not ignored. A vote is not a partisan tool, to be counted when it helps your candidates and tossed aside when it doesn’t. Second, we must, with an overwhelming voice, stand against political violence and voter intimidation, period. Stand up and speak against it.We don’t settle our differences, America, with a riot, a mob, or a bullet, or a hammer. We settle them peacefully at the ballot box. We have to be honest with ourselves, though. We have to face this problem. We can’t turn away from it. We can’t pretend it’s just going to solve itself.There’s an alarming rise in the number of our people in this country condoning political violence, or simply remaining silent, because silence is complicity. To the disturbing rise of voter intimidation, the pernicious tendency to excuse political violence or at least, at least trying to explain it away. We can’t allow this sentiment to grow. We must confront it head on now. It has to stop now.I believe the voices excusing or calling for violence and intimidation are a distinct minority in America. But they’re loud, and they are determined. We have to be more determined. All of us who reject political violence and voter intimidation, and I believe that’s the overwhelming majority of the American people, all of us must unite to make it absolutely clear that violence and intimidation have no place in America.And, third, we believe in democracy. That’s who we are as Americans. I know it isn’t easy. Democracy’s imperfect. It always has been. But you’re all called to defend it now, now. History and common sense tell us that liberty, opportunity and justice thrive in a democracy, not in an autocracy.At our best, America’s not a zero-sum society or for you to succeed, someone else has to fail. A promise in America is big enough, is big enough, for everyone to succeed. Every generation opening the door of opportunity just a little bit wider. Every generation including those who’ve been excluded before.We believe we should leave no one behind, because each one of us is a child of God, and every person, every person is sacred. If that’s true, then every person’s rights must be sacred as well. Individual dignity, individual worth, individual determination, that’s America, that’s democracy and that’s what we have to defend.Look, even as I speak here tonight, 27 million people have already cast their ballot in the midterm elections. Millions more will cast their ballots in the final days leading up to November the 9th — 8th, excuse me. And for the first time — this is the first time since the national election of 2020.Once again we’re seeing record turnout all over the country. And that’s good. We want Americans to vote. We want every American’s voice to be heard. Now we have to move the process forward. We know that more and more ballots are cast in early voting or by mail in America. We know that many states don’t start counting those ballots till after the polls close on Nov. 8.That means in some cases we won’t know the winner of the election for a few days — until a few days after the election. It takes time to count all legitimate ballots in a legal and orderly manner. It’s always been important for citizens in the democracy to be informed and engaged. Now it’s important for a citizen to be patient as well. That’s how this is supposed to work.This is also the first election since the events of Jan. 6 when the armed, angry mob stormed the U.S. Capitol. I wish I could say the assault on our democracy ended that day, but I cannot.As I stand here today, there are candidates running for every level of office in America — for governor, Congress, attorney general, secretary of state — who won’t commit, that will not commit to accepting the results of the election that they’re running in. This is a path to chaos in America. It’s unprecedented. It’s unlawful, and it’s un-American.As I’ve said before, you can’t love your country only when you win. This is no ordinary year. So I ask you to think long and hard about the moment we’re in. In a typical year, we’re often not faced with questions of whether the vote we cast will preserve democracy or put us at risk. But this year we are. This year I hope you’ll make the future of our democracy an important part of your decision to vote and how you vote.I hope you’ll ask a simple question of each candidate you might vote for. Will that person accept the legitimate will of the American people and the people voting in his district or her district? Will that person accept the outcome of the election, win or lose? The answer to that question is vital. And, in my opinion, it should be decisive. And the answer to that question hangs in the future of the country we love so much, and the fate of the democracy that has made so much possible for us.Too many people have sacrificed too much for too many years for us to walk away from the American project and democracy. Because we’ve enjoyed our freedoms for so long, it’s easy to think they’ll always be with us no matter what. But that isn’t true today. In our bones, we know democracy is at risk. But we also know this. It’s within our power, each and every one of us, to preserve our democracy.And I believe we will. I think I know this country. I know we will. You have the power, it’s your choice, it’s your decision, the fate of the nation, the fate of the soul of America lies where it always does, with the people, in your hands, in your heart, in your ballot.My fellow Americans, we’ll meet this moment. We just need to remember who we are. We are the United States of America. There’s nothing, nothing beyond our capacity if we do it together.May God bless you all. May God protect our troops. May God bless those standing guard over our democracy. Thank you, and godspeed. More

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      Biden Misstates How His Son Beau Died in 2nd Verbal Fumble in Florida

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      MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — President Biden verbally fumbled during a campaign swing in Florida on Tuesday, confusing the American war in Iraq with the Russian war in Ukraine, and then he fumbled again while he tried to correct himself, misstating how his son Beau died in 2015.In defending his record on inflation, Mr. Biden was trying to blame rising costs on President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia for his invasion of Ukraine, which has roiled international energy markets. It’s a point that he makes regularly in public speeches, but this time he mixed up his geography and history.“Inflation is a worldwide problem right now because of a war in Iraq and the impact on oil and what Russia is doing,” Mr. Biden told a crowd during a speech at O.B. Johnson Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla., before heading to Miami Gardens for an evening campaign rally with Democratic candidates. He quickly caught his own mistake. “Excuse me,” he said, “the war in Ukraine.”But as he tried to explain how he mixed up the two wars, he told the audience, “I think of Iraq because that’s where my son died.” In fact, Beau Biden, a military lawyer in the Delaware Army National Guard, served for a year in Iraq. He returned home in 2009 and died of brain cancer in the United States in 2015.Mr. Biden, who has made the same mistake before, once again sought to correct himself. “Because, he died,” he said, apparently referring to his belief that Beau’s cancer could have been caused by his service in Iraq, where he may have been exposed to toxic burn pits.Mr. Biden, who at 79 is the oldest president in American history, has a long record of gaffes dating back to when he was a young man. But his misstatements have become more pronounced, and more noticed, now that he has the spotlight of the presidency constantly on him. While Mr. Biden has said he intends to run for a second term, his age ranked at the top of the list for Democratic voters who told pollsters that they want the party to find an alternative, according to a survey by New York Times and Siena College this summer. More

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      Elecciones de medio término en EE. UU.: lo que hay que saber

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      ¿Qué está en juego y cómo funciona el proceso? Empecemos por lo básico.Si en general sabes que las elecciones de medio mandato que se aproximan en Estados Unidos tendrán importantes repercusiones a nivel global, pero no estás al tanto de cómo funciona el sistema gubernamental estadounidense o te cuesta trabajo entenderlo, has llegado al lugar indicado.En el sistema bipartidista de Estados Unidos, el control de dos entidades claves de gobierno —el Senado y la Cámara de Representantes— es esencial para aprobar leyes, y se decidirá por votación el 8 de noviembre. Por el momento, los demócratas tienen el control de ambas cámaras y la presidencia, por lo que perder la Cámara de Representantes o el Senado frente a los republicanos reduciría significativamente el poder de los demócratas en los próximos dos años de mandato del presidente Joe Biden.Se celebrarán cientos de elecciones, pero se considera que muchos candidatos ya tienen la victoria asegurada, por lo que el control de las entidades en cuestión probablemente se decida en unas pocas votaciones reñidas.Dame lo básico: ¿Qué se decide con estas elecciones?El Senado, que ahora está en un empate de 50-50 pero está bajo el control de los demócratas porque la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris emite el voto de desempate, tiene 100 integrantes, dos por cada uno de los 50 estados. Hay 34 escaños en juego este noviembre, y los ganadores cumplen periodos de seis años.La Cámara de Representantes, con 435 miembros con derecho a voto, está controlada por los demócratas, con 222 votos frente a 213 en contra. Los 435 escaños están en juego, y los ganadores cumplen mandatos de dos años.Las probabilidades están en contra de los demócratas, pero este año es inusualPor lo general, el partido que ocupa la presidencia —actualmente los demócratas— ha tenido malos resultados en las elecciones de medio mandato. La frustración con el presidente suele propiciar el éxito del otro partido, y Biden tiene índices de aprobación bajos.En la actualidad, los republicanos son favoritos para ganar la Cámara de Representantes mientras que el Senado podría ganarlo cualquiera, según FiveThirtyEight. Los demócratas gozaron de un importante impulso en las encuestas después de que la Corte Suprema fallara una sentencia impopular en junio que eliminó el derecho constitucional al aborto, lo que dio al partido la esperanza de poder desafiar las tendencias históricas, pero en general esa ventaja se ha desvanecido.Aquí encontrarás más información sobre cómo seguir las encuestas y las predicciones, y sobre la amplia gama de resultados posibles.Por qué importa: si los demócratas pierden cualquiera de las cámaras, la agenda de Biden está en problemasEn tiempos tan polarizados, es sumamente difícil aprobar leyes a menos que un partido controle la presidencia, la Cámara de los Representantes y el Senado. Si los republicanos ganan la Cámara Baja o el Senado, tienen la posibilidad de impedir gran parte de lo que Biden y los demócratas esperan conseguir antes de 2024, cuando se celebrarán las próximas elecciones presidenciales. Habrá que despedirse de cualquier legislación demócrata importante.Por otro lado, si los demócratas conservan el control de la cámara baja y aumentan su ventaja en el Senado, tal vez tengan más capacidad para aprobar leyes nuevas. Y, dado que los senadores tienen mandatos de seis años, aumentar la ventaja ahora les daría un respiro en 2024, cuando los analistas dicen que los republicanos probablemente se vean muy favorecidos.Si los republicanos obtienen más poder, es posible que bloqueen los esfuerzos demócratas para codificar el derecho al aborto y tomar medidas sobre el clima, y que cuestionen la ayuda enviada a Ucrania.Históricamente, al partido que controla la presidencia —actualmente los demócratas—  le ha ido mal en las elecciones de medio mandato. Sarah Silbiger para The New York TimesLos republicanos podrían obtener facultades para investigar e impugnarSi los republicanos toman una o ambas cámaras, podrían utilizar sus nuevos poderes para crear una avalancha de investigaciones sobre los demócratas, como los partidos de la oposición han hecho durante mucho tiempo en Washington. Con citatorios y audiencias judiciales, podrían poner de relieve supuestas incompetencias o presuntas irregularidades en diversos temas, como el allanamiento al club privado y residencia del expresidente Donald Trump en agosto, la retirada de Afganistán y la respuesta a la pandemia.Los demócratas esperan que Biden y su familia estén entre los objetivos de tales pesquisas, junto con el doctor Anthony Fauci, uno de los principales asesores médicos de los gobiernos de Trump y Biden.Algunos republicanos también se han comprometido a someter al presidente a un juicio político, un complicado proceso que podría obligar a Biden a comparecer ante el Senado, como ocurrió con Trump en los juicios políticos de 2020 y 2021. El senador Ted Cruz, republicano de Texas, dijo el año pasado que habría una “enorme presión” sobre una Cámara Baja republicana para llevar a Biden a juicio, “esté justificado o no”.Un poder importante del Senado: aprobar la designación de juecesEl control del Senado incluye el poder de aprobar a los jueces de los tribunales federales, incluyendo la Corte Suprema. Si los republicanos reclaman el control, existe el riesgo de que usen su poder para bloquear los nombramientos de Biden.Cuando el presidente Barack Obama, un demócrata, tuvo que trabajar con un Senado controlado por los republicanos, estos bloquearon la nominación que hizo para la Corte Suprema en 2016. En cambio, Trump logró acelerar la aprobación de tres nombramientos a la Corte, gracias a un Senado favorable.Aunque no son tan notorios, los nombramientos a tribunales inferiores en ocasiones también son muy influyentes. Como presidentes, tanto Trump como Biden han usado el control del Senado por su propio partido para instalar a decenas de jueces de su agrado en puestos importantes en todo el país.Las elecciones estatales podrían tener gran repercusión en temas como el derecho al aborto y el votoEn 36 estados se elegirá gobernador. Además de las otras facultades que tendrán, podrían ser muy influyentes a la hora de determinar si el aborto sigue siendo legal en varios estados.Las contiendas para la Secretaría de Estado de cada estado no suelen recibir mucha atención, pero este año han atraído un gran interés debido al papel que desempeñan en la supervisión de las elecciones. Podría convertirse en un puesto importante si hay disputas electorales en las elecciones presidenciales de 2024, y algunos de los republicanos postulados en estados clave apoyaron las falsas afirmaciones de Trump de que le robaron las elecciones de 2020.Daniel Victor es un reportero de temas generales residenciado en Londres que antes trabajó en Hong Kong y Nueva York. Se unió al Times en 2012. @bydanielvictor More

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      in Elections

      Biden Accuses Oil Companies of ‘War Profiteering’ and Threatens Windfall Tax

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      The president has been eager to redirect public anger over gas prices as Democrats try to keep power in Congress in the midterm elections.WASHINGTON — President Biden threatened on Monday to seek a new windfall profits tax on major oil and gas companies unless they ramp up production to curb the price of gasoline at the pump, an escalation of his battle with the energy industry just a week before the midterm elections.The president lashed out against the giant firms as several of them reported the latest surge in profits, which he called an “outrageous” bonanza stemming from Russia’s war on Ukraine. He warned them to use the money to expand oil supplies or return it to consumers in the form of price reductions.“If they don’t, they’re going to pay a higher tax on their excess profits and face other restrictions,” Mr. Biden told reporters at the White House. “My team will work with Congress to look at these options that are available to us and others. It’s time for these companies to stop war profiteering, meet their responsibilities to this country, give the American people a break and still do very well.”The president’s embrace of new taxes on the energy industry heartened liberals in his party who have been urging him to take action for months. But it was more of a way to pressure the oil firms than a realistic policy prescription for the short term given that Congress is not even in session and would be even less likely to approve such a measure if Republicans capture one or both houses in next week’s election.Mr. Biden has been eager to redirect public anger over gas prices toward the oil industry and away from himself as Democrats try to overcome historical and popular headwinds to keep power on Capitol Hill. While the price at the pump has fallen significantly since topping out just above $5 a gallon in the summer, it is still much higher than when Mr. Biden took office and contributes to the overall inflation rate, which remains near a four-decade high.The president framed his case against the oil companies in terms that seemed clearly aimed at next week’s vote. “The American people are going to judge who is standing with them and who is only looking out for their own bottom line,” he said. “I know where I stand.”Republicans fired back at the president, faulting him for policies that they say discourage the energy industry from expanding capacity.The State of the WarGrain Deal: After accusing Ukraine of attacking its ships in Crimea, Russia withdrew from an agreement allowing the export of grain from Ukrainian ports. The move jeopardized a rare case of wartime coordination aimed at lowering global food prices and combating hunger.Turning the Tables: With powerful Western weapons and deadly homemade drones, Ukraine now has an artillery advantage over Russia in the southern Kherson region, erasing what had been a critical asset for Moscow.Fears of Escalation: President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia repeated the unfounded claim that Ukraine was preparing to explode a so-called dirty bomb, as concerns rose in the West that the Kremlin was seeking a pretext to escalate the war.A Coalition Under Strain: President Biden is facing new challenges keeping together the bipartisan, multinational coalition supporting Ukraine. The alliance has shown signs of fraying with the approach of the U.S. midterm elections and a cold European winter.“Haven’t American families suffered enough from President Biden’s damaging attack on American-made energy?” asked Representative Kevin Brady of Texas, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee. “Desperately trying to salvage the midterm elections, now he’s proposing another dangerous policy that will increase energy prices and energy poverty while making America more vulnerable to foreign countries for our daily energy needs.”The oil industry accused the president of politicking, noting that gas prices have come down by roughly a quarter since summer. “Rather than taking credit for price declines and shifting blame for price increases,” said Mike Sommers, the president of the American Petroleum Institute, a trade group, “the Biden administration should get serious about addressing the supply-and-demand imbalance that has caused higher gas prices and created long-term energy challenges.”Mr. Biden’s statement came just days after the oil giants reported another three months of flush coffers. Exxon Mobil brought in a record of nearly $20 billion in profits for the third quarter of the year, 10 percent higher than the previous quarter and its fourth consecutive quarter of robust earnings. Chevron reported $11.2 billion in profits, just below the record it set the quarter before. The European-based Shell and Total Energies companies similarly reported that profits more than doubled from the same period a year ago.The five biggest oil companies generated more than $50 billion in profits in the second quarter, and the International Energy Agency has reported that total net income for the world’s oil and gas producers will double this year from last to a record $4 trillion. “Today’s high fossil fuel prices have generated an unprecedented windfall for producers,” the agency said.A half-dozen of the largest firms earned more in profit over the past six months than in all of last year and more than two and a half times what they earned in the same quarters of 2021, White House officials said. Mr. Biden said if the industry simply earned the same level of profits it has for 20 years, consumers would pay 50 cents less per gallon.The firms have used their profits in some cases for dividend increases and stock buybacks rather than increased production, which could bring down the price of oil and therefore trim their profits. Exxon Mobil raised its dividend on Friday, citing a commitment to “return excess cash” to shareholders.Mr. Biden has been sensitive to gas prices, an important barometer for the public mood. As the price at the pump hit record highs over the summer, the president’s approval rating slid to new lows, but as gas costs came down over the following three months, his own numbers improved. Likewise, according to polls, the rise and fall of gas prices is directly inverse to public feelings about whether the country is heading down the right or wrong track.Ron Klain, the White House chief of staff, is so attentive to the fluctuations that he checks the average price every day and often posts messages on Twitter pointing out when it dips further.“If you are filling your gas tank this weekend, you are seeing one of the cheapest Saturdays of the year,” Mr. Klain tweeted on Saturday. “Gas prices continue to drop nationally,” he added on Monday morning.The current national average of $3.76 a gallon is about three pennies less than it was a month ago and about $1.25 below the June peak, but still far above the $2.39 it was when Mr. Biden took office, according to AAA.The issue flared recently when Saudi Arabia led the OPEC Plus cartel to cut production by up to two million barrels of oil a day just before the midterm elections, a move that Biden administration officials considered a betrayal of a private understanding to increase supplies rather than the other way around.A windfall profits tax would impose an excise levy on the output of domestic oil producers. Congress would establish the tax rate, which could differ between independent producers and the biggest companies. It would be the first windfall profits tax in the United States in more than three decades, but since earlier this year, 15 European countries have proposed or enacted such levies, including Britain, Italy and Spain, according to the Tax Foundation.Urged by President Jimmy Carter, Congress imposed a windfall profits tax in 1980 after a sharp increase in oil prices spurred by an OPEC embargo. Lawmakers were trying to offset large industry tax deductions, including a depletion allowance for older wells with exhausting deposits and an array of deductions for drilling.But domestic production fell and dependence on foreign oil increased, while forecasts of revenue from the windfall tax turned out to be overly optimistic. Congress repealed the tax in 1988 after oil prices fell.Industry executives said Mr. Biden’s proposal to revive the tax would not increase supplies. “It’s a horrible idea, small thinking,” said Patrick Montalban, the president of Montalban Oil and Gas, a producer in North Dakota and Montana. “It’s going to take away from exploration and production of domestic oil and gas. It’s that simple. Total politics.”Democrats who have pressed Mr. Biden to consider such a tax applauded his statement. “It’s time for Congress to stand up to Big Oil and bring relief to consumers, instead of corporate stock buybacks and bonuses,” said Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, who has introduced windfall profits tax legislation.But some liberals were unhappy that Mr. Biden was using the threat to leverage production increases. “Drilling more won’t lower prices for U.S. consumers,” said Robert Weissman, the president of Public Citizen, an advocacy group. “More investment in oil drilling will deepen our dependence on fossil fuels.”Investments in oil and gas exploration remain 17 percent below the 2019 level and half the level in 2014, when the oil business was enjoying a price boom, according to the International Energy Agency. Few new fields have been discovered in recent years, leading to ever-tightening supplies. And Wall Street has shied away from investing in hydrocarbons because of growing concerns about climate change.American oil production this year is averaging 11.87 million barrels a day, an increase of 4 percent from last year despite urging from the administration that companies drill and produce more. The number of rigs deploying has been increasing this year, although increases have slowed since summer.Shale oil production, which has been the engine of growth over the last decade, is expected to grow to roughly the level before the Covid-19 pandemic caused the 2020 economic downturn and collapse of oil prices.Peter Baker More