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      Biden Wins New Hampshire Democratic Primary

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      President Biden won the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday, carried by his supporters’ write-in campaign after he declined to appear on the state’s ballot.The victory, called by The Associated Press, was good, if expected, news for Mr. Biden. But votes were still being counted, and the final margin of his win will be closely watched.As an incumbent president facing a list of long-shot challengers, anything short of a decisive victory would be perceived as bruising for Mr. Biden, even though he did not try to compete in the primary.Mr. Biden skipped the state after a dispute over the timing of its primary, as he and the Democratic National Committee sought to push New Hampshire’s contest later in the nominating process. Granite Staters, deeply protective of their first-in-the-nation tradition, refused to comply.His allies in the state eventually stepped in, and the write-in effort, supported by top Democrats there, generated the kind of grass-roots energy for Mr. Biden that has not yet materialized in other states — and that he did not enjoy in New Hampshire’s primary in 2020, when he came in fifth place.“Despite President Biden’s absence from the ballot, Granite Staters still turned out in robust numbers to show their support for the great work that the Biden-Harris administration has done,” Ray Buckley, the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party — and an ardent critic of the calendar changes — said in a statement, praising the success of the write-in campaign. “Once again, New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary made history — and we are proud as ever.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      What You Need to Know About the 2024 New Hampshire Primary: The Run Up

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      Listen to and follow ‘The Run-Up’Apple Podcasts | Spotify | AmazonSupporters of former President Donald Trump cheer during a campaign rally on January 19 in Concord, N.H.Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesWarning: this episode contains strong language.On Sunday, after a disappointing finish in the Iowa caucuses and with just two days to go before the New Hampshire primary, Ron DeSantis ended his campaign for president.His decision made it official: The race for the Republican nomination is now a head-to-head contest between two wildly different candidates, Nikki Haley and Donald Trump.And now, the famously independent New Hampshire voters are going to determine how serious a contest it is.We’re looking for three big things.First, how Haley’s recent change in tone and sharpening attacks on Trump will play with independents. Second, whether Trump is as dominant here as he was in Iowa. And third, what the Democrats are up to — since there’s a contest here on that side too.About ‘The Run-Up’“The Run-Up” is your guide to understanding the 2024 election. Through on-the-ground reporting and conversations with colleagues from The New York Times, newsmakers and voters across the country, our host, Astead W. Herndon, takes us beyond the horse race to explore how we came to this unprecedented moment in American politics. New episodes on Thursdays.Credits“The Run-Up” is hosted by More

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      Brainard Pitches Biden’s Economic Efforts In Hard-Hit Regions

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      Lael Brainard, the National Economic Council director, contends the administration deserves credit for recent gains in areas battered by past job losses.President Biden’s top economic adviser will argue on Monday that the administration is engineering a revival of economically disadvantaged communities across the nation, largely relying on anecdotal evidence and patterns of new federal spending in places like Eastern Pennsylvania and Milwaukee, Wis.Lael Brainard, who heads Mr. Biden’s National Economic Council, will use a speech to the Brookings Institution in Washington to lay out a detailed blueprint of the administration’s efforts to bring jobs, investment and innovation to areas hobbled by the loss of jobs and industries.Those “place-based” policies are often directed at former industrial strongholds that were battered by automation and foreign competition. They are a cornerstone of Mr. Biden’s economic agenda across several major pieces of legislation he has signed and a big part of his re-election pitch. Whether voters perceive them as successful could affect Mr. Biden’s chances in November, particularly in industrial swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.Mr. Biden “came to office determined to invest in all of America, to leave no community behind. It is working,” Ms. Brainard plans to say, according to a copy of her prepared remarks. “Communities that had been left behind are making a comeback.”Place-based efforts were included in several laws that Mr. Biden signed, including those aimed at infrastructure, climate change and clean-energy production and semiconductors and other advanced manufacturing, all of which Ms. Brainard plans to spotlight on Monday afternoon. The Commerce and Transportation Departments have launched pilot programs to support neighborhoods that have historically been cut off from opportunity.Ms. Brainard will make case studies of two areas in particular: Allentown, Pa., and Milwaukee, both of which Mr. Biden visited recently.After his Allentown visit, Mr. Biden told reporters that he was “really reassured that what we’ve done has had an impact not just here in Eastern Pennsylvania and — but — in the Northeast, but throughout the country. And we’re going to do more.”Ms. Brainard does not plan to offer comprehensive national statistics to support the administration’s revival claims, other than a Treasury Department analysis that finds low-emission energy investments spurred by Mr. Biden’s climate law have disproportionately boosted lower-income areas and communities that have been historically reliant on fossil fuels. Ms. Brainard will say that the Allentown area, for example, has experienced a “boom” in job creation and small business formation under Mr. Biden, after listing investments the administration has steered to the region’s roads, airports and more. But she does not explicitly link that spending and those trends.Administration officials acknowledge that many of Mr. Biden’s programs to help hard-hit communities are still in their infancy, and that it may be difficult to assess their effects yet. But Ms. Brainard, in an interview ahead of the speech, said it was fair for Mr. Biden to claim credit for gains in areas like Allentown and Milwaukee.“In many left-behind communities, unemployment rates have been well above the national average for years,” she said. “And what you’re seeing in those communities now is that unemployment rates have actually moved down below 4 percent, which are, in some cases, a level they haven’t seen in a very long time.”The unemployment rate in the Allentown area was 3.9 percent in November, according to the Labor Department. That’s down from nearly 9.5 percent after the 2008 financial crisis and 4.2 percent on the eve of the pandemic in February 2020, when Donald J. Trump was president. In November, unemployment was 3.1 percent in the Milwaukee area, the same rate as it was in February 2020, and down from 10 percent after the 2008 recession.Mr. Trump has long promised on the campaign trail and in the White House to revitalize hard-hit American communities. He is making similar promises as he attempts to defeat Mr. Biden this fall, a counterpoint that looms over the president’s place-based effort.While Ms. Brainard will not mention Mr. Trump by name, she plans to cast Mr. Biden’s place-based policies as the antidote to what the administration calls the failed promises of “trickle-down economics,” including those practiced by the previous administration. That term has long been associated with Republican tax policies. By cutting rates on high earners and corporations, conservative economists have long contended, policymakers would stoke fast economic growth that would lift incomes for all workers.The Biden administration has attempted to broaden that trickle-down phrase to include the outsourcing of jobs and factories to foreign shores.Mr. Trump’s signature 2017 tax-cut law included deep cuts to corporate and individual tax rates, but it also featured a place-based program: a tax-based incentive called Opportunity Zones that sought to entice investors to put money into designated lower-income areas. The program has continued under Mr. Biden, even as his aides have debated whether to attempt to change it. Asked whether the administration judged that program to be succeeding, Ms. Brainard did not answer directly.“I’ve been very focused on making sure the president’s policies are implemented and are having the effect of lifting up these communities,” Ms. Brainard said. “That’s been my focus.” More

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      Americans’ Economic Confidence Is Returning. Will Biden Benefit?

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      The White House is embracing a nascent uptick in economic sentiment. It is likely good news — but how it will map to votes is complicated.Low approval ratings and rock-bottom consumer confidence figures have dogged President Biden for months now, a worrying sign for the White House as the country enters a presidential election year. But recent data suggests the tide is beginning to turn.Americans are feeling more confident about the economy than they have in years, by some measures. They increasingly expect inflation to continue its descent, preliminary data indicates, and they think interest rates will soon moderate.Returning optimism, if it persists, could bolster Mr. Biden’s chances as he pushes for re-election — and spell trouble for former President Donald J. Trump, who is the front-runner for the Republican nomination and has been blasting the Democratic incumbent’s economic record.But political scientists, consumer sentiment experts and economists alike said it was too early for Democrats to take a victory lap around the latest economic data and confidence figures. Plenty of economic risks remain that could derail the apparent progress. In fact, models that try to predict election outcomes based on economic data currently point to a tossup come November.“We’re still very early in the election cycle, from the perspective of economic factors,” said Joanne Hsu, who heads one of the most frequently cited sentiment indexes as director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan. “A lot can happen.”The University of Michigan’s preliminary survey for January showed an unexpected surge in consumer sentiment: The index climbed to its highest level since July 2021, before inflation surged. While the confidence measure could be revised — and is still slightly below its long-run trend — it has been recovering quickly across age, income, education and geographic groups over the past two months.Confidence Is Still Down, but It’s ImprovingPreliminary January data from the University of Michigan survey suggested that consumer confidence is back at summer 2021 levels.

      Note: Final datapoint, for January, is preliminary.Source: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment SurveyBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      GOP Donors Face Dilemma as DeSantis Drops Out

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      Ron DeSantis’s exit, and Nikki Haley’s struggle to make headway against Donald Trump, are forcing Republicans to make a tough choice.The narrowing race for the Republican presidential nomination is creating tough choices for anti-Trump donors.Sophie Park for The New York TimesIt’s down to Trump and Haley now The effort to pick anyone but Donald Trump as the Republican presidential nominee took another big, if expected, blow on Sunday when Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race and endorsed the former president. (Other former hopefuls, including Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott, have also endorsed Trump.)The Republican faithful are coalescing around Trump in a way that raises questions about the next move by the wealthy donors who have sought to stop him.Nikki Haley is now the only potential roadblock to a Trump nomination. DeSantis came into the race as the most daunting opponent to the former president, but his misstep-laden campaign never turned into a serious threat. Among his strategic errors was betting that “anti-woke” fights, including his battle against Disney, would resonate with voters. (Politico reports that a top DeSantis fund-raiser had proposed a legally untested way for the campaign to remain afloat, but the Florida governor eventually yielded to electoral reality.)Haley has embraced her status as the last anti-Trump candidate standing: “May the best woman win,” she said on Sunday. But polls put her some 15 percentage points behind Trump in New Hampshire, as voters head to the polls tomorrow.It’s a sign that the influence of big-money donors is limited. DeSantis’s war chest was financed largely by deep-pocketed benefactors. And in recent months, Haley has drawn support from a bipartisan group of anti-Trump moguls, including the hedge fund billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller and the Democratic investor and LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman. (JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon has publicly exhorted people of all political stripes to back Haley.)But as The Times’s Ken Vogel notes, winning over the moneyed class hasn’t guaranteed electoral success for years. Just ask Jeb Bush.What will those anti-Trump donors do? Some are continuing to back Haley: Several Wall Street titans, including Druckenmiller and Henry Kravis, will host a fund-raiser for her on Jan. 30, a week after the Republican and Democratic New Hampshire primaries. And Americans for Prosperity, a super PAC backed by the Koch business empire, said it would continue to back Haley through at least Super Tuesday in early March.But if Haley loses badly in New Hampshire, how long will business leaders accustomed to success stick with a failing bet? Ken Langone, a co-founder of Home Depot and one of her backers, said recently that he wants to see how she does tomorrow before giving more money.In other election news: The top outside political group backing President Biden raised $208 million last year. And Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is heading to the Midwest this week to tout Biden’s economic record as data points increasingly turn positive.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING The war in Gaza hits the Middle East’s economy. Three months in, the conflict has cost Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan more than $10 billion in economic losses, and risks pushing 230,000 into poverty. Meanwhile, international support for Israel is fraying as casualties in Gaza mount and as attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels in the Red Sea are driving up shipping costs.Exxon Mobil sues climate investors to stop a proxy fight. The fossil-fuel giant asked a federal court in Texas to throw out a proposal from Follow This and Arjuna Capital that calls for speeding up the company’s efforts to cut greenhouse gases. A decision could clarify S.E.C. guidance on which shareholder proposals can be put up for a vote by company shareholders.Another Boeing model comes under regulatory scrutiny. The F.A.A. said on Sunday that airlines should inspect the door plugs on Boeing 737-900ER planes “as an added layer of safety.” Confidence in Boeing’s engineering and quality control has fallen after hundreds of Boeing 737 Max 9s were grounded in the wake of a door panel tearing off an Alaska Airlines jet in flight.S&P 500 futures are up again on Monday. After hitting a record on Friday, the benchmark index looks set to extend those gains. Last week’s rally was driven by investor bets on interest rates cuts and the artificial intelligence boom buoying tech stocks.Could Macy’s get hostile? Macy’s has rejected a $5.8 billion takeover bid from the investment firms Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital that valued the struggling department store chain at roughly 20 percent above its closing share price on Friday.The investor group is now threatening to take the offer to shareholders. With a potential hostile bid looming, here are DealBook’s questions about what may come next.How would Arkhouse and Brigade pull off a deal? Macy’s board cited doubts about the investment firms’ financing when it rejected the proposal on Sunday. The company said the firms had proposed to pay 25 percent of the offer in equity. The rest would most likely be from debt such as leveraged loans, the market for which has been tight thanks in part to high interest rates.Could the rejection open the door to other bids? Arkhouse’s 2021 offer for Columbia Property Trust led to another buyer entering the picture. Macy’s has not reached out to prospective buyers, people familiar with the matter tell DealBook. But the retailer indicated in a statement that it would “be open to opportunities that are in the best interests of the company and all of our shareholders.”The list of prospective suitors is short, given the challenges facing the retail sector and the scarring memories of buyouts-gone-bad like with Sears.What is Macy’s turnaround plan? The retailer’s shares have fallen about 30 percent over the past five years, as the company lost significant market share, forcing it to close stores and lay off staff — including an announcement last week that it would cut 2,350 jobs.All eyes are on Tony Spring, who takes over as C.E.O. next month after having led Bloomingdale’s, Macy’s much-healthier higher-end brand. But duplicating that kind of success could be challenging, given Macy’s large and underperforming store base and its different shopper demographics.Taking the temperature of tech C.E.O.s Tech sector C.E.O.s are more optimistic about the economy this year, especially the potential for artificial intelligence and the I.P.O. market. But they also remain wary that geopolitical tensions could disrupt trade and increase headwinds in the capital markets, SoftBank’s latest annual survey of its portfolio companies shows.DealBook got an exclusive first look at the report, which includes start-ups backed bySoftBank’s two Vision Funds and its Latin America fund.Hope is returning after a dismal two years. Almost half of the C.E.O.s surveyed were more upbeat about the economy than they were a year ago and expected to raise capital this year.The improvement in sentiment is from a low base, cautioned Alex Clavel, co-C.E.O. of SoftBank Investment Advisers, which manages the funds. Last year was a hangover from 2022, when the fund-raising “faucets were turned off,” he said. Hopes didn’t pan out that I.P.O.s at the end of 2023 — including of the SoftBank-backed Arm — would lead to a flow of new listings, but 37 percent of C.E.O.s said public listings would pick up in the second half of 2024.A.I. excitement is high, even if it’s unclear how it will be deployed. “There is an increasing sense that 2024 is the year when we go from A.I. enthusiasm to A.I. impact,” Clavel said. A third of the C.E.O.s said they had increased A.I. investment by 50 percent last year and were using it to make products more cheaply or to improve efficiency.But some are proceeding cautiously. Clavel said one company has used A.I. to cut costs significantly but is holding off on more changes “because it’s going to be too unsettling” for the work force.The C.E.O.s said tensions with China were the top geopolitical risk. Still, that obstacle hasn’t significantly affected their businesses yet. The biggest concern for 2024: that wider instability, including war in the Middle East, could sap investor interest in I.P.O.s or raise energy costs in Europe.“I have lost confidence in the determination and ability of the Harvard Corporation and Harvard leadership to maintain Harvard as a place where Jews and Israelis can flourish.” — Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary and ex-president of Harvard, after the university announced a new antisemitism task force on Friday. The committee is set to be co-chaired by Derek Penslar, a professor of Jewish history who Summers said was “unsuited” for the role in part because of his position on the extent of the school’s antisemitism problem.The week ahead On the agenda this week: earnings, inflation and central bank decisions.Tomorrow: Netflix, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson and Lockheed Martin release quarterly results. Also, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy; the markets predict the country will exit its negative rates regime as soon as March.Elsewhere, the Academy Awards nominees are set to be announced.Wednesday: The Dutch chips-equipment manufacturer ASML, Tesla and AT&T report earnings.Thursday: It’s decision day for the European Central Bank, which is expected to hold steady on interest rates. On the other side of the Atlantic, U.S. fourth-quarter G.D.P. is set to be published.In earnings, LVMH, Intel, Visa and a slew of airlines including American, Southwest and Alaska Air Group are due to report.Friday: The Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released.THE SPEED READ DealsSony ended a $10 billion deal to combine its Indian assets with Zee Entertainment, a Mumbai-based media company. (Reuters)Macquarie, the big Australian investment firm, has raised 8 billion euros ($8.7 billion) for its latest European infrastructure fund. (FT)What Citigroup’s exit from the $4 trillion market for municipal bonds, a field it once dominated, means for the business of financing state and local governments. (WSJ)Artificial intelligenceEleven Labs, an A.I voice-cloning start-up, raised $80 million in new funds from investors led by Andreessen Horowitz at a valuation of more than $1 billion. (Bloomberg)How Japan is turning to avatars, robots and A.I. to tackle its labor crisis. (FT)Best of the rest“‘America is Under Attack’: Inside the Anti-D.E.I. Crusade” (NYT)American clothing makers are pushing to change a trade rule that effectively lets foreign manufacturers ship directly to U.S. consumers without paying tariffs. (NYT)The Chinese electric carmaker BYD is going upmarket with a Lamborghini-style E.V. to step up its fight with Tesla. (WSJ)We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. More

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      Harris Begins a Reproductive Rights Tour on 51st Anniversary of Roe

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      The administration’s task force on reproductive rights also announced what officials said were new steps to help Americans get contraceptives and abortions under an emergency care law.Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to Wisconsin on Monday morning to host an event in support of abortion rights while President Biden brings together a task force on reproductive health care in Washington.Both events are designed to call attention to the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade, the landmark Supreme Court ruling that established a constitutional right to abortion, and to announce new steps that Mr. Biden’s administration has taken to support abortion access since the court struck it down in 2022.“Even as Americans — from Ohio to Kentucky to Michigan to Kansas to California — have resoundingly rejected attempts to limit reproductive freedom, Republican elected officials continue to push for a national ban and devastating new restrictions across the country,” Mr. Biden said in a statement. “On this day and every day, Vice President Harris and I are fighting to protect women’s reproductive freedom.”Ms. Harris, who has become the administration’s most vocal defender of abortion rights, chose Wisconsin as the backdrop for the first in a series of abortion rights events her office has planned around the country through the spring. Kirsten Allen, the vice president’s press secretary, said that Ms. Harris’s office had planned several more stops, over the next two to three months, in “states that have enshrined protections, restricted access and states that continue to threaten access, causing chaos and confusion.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      Biden Ad Shows Woman Forced to Leave Texas to End Dangerous Pregnancy

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      President Biden’s campaign is releasing a new advertisement featuring the testimonial of a woman who was forced to leave Texas to end a planned pregnancy that put her life at risk.In the 60-second spot, Dr. Austin Dennard, an OB-GYN and a mother of three from Texas, says she became pregnant with a baby that she “desperately wanted.” When she was 11 weeks pregnant, her fetus was diagnosed with anencephaly, a fatal condition in which a baby is born without parts of a brain and skull.“In Texas, you are forced to carry that pregnancy, and that is because of Donald Trump overturning Roe v. Wade,” she says, speaking directly to the camera. “It’s every woman’s worst nightmare, and it was absolutely unbearable.”The ad is part of an effort by the Biden team to orient its campaign around abortion rights, which has mobilized voters since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in June 2022.Mr. Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and top campaign surrogates have planned a frenzy of events next week calling for the protection of abortion rights, pegged to the anniversary of Roe on Monday. Abortion access, Democrats argue, is one of many personal rights and freedoms that will be taken away if Mr. Trump wins the White House this fall.The ad, which will run for a week, is aimed at suburban women and younger voters. It is scheduled to be broadcast during the season premiere of “The Bachelor” and on channels known to attract female viewers, including HGTV, TLC, Bravo, Hallmark, the Food Network and Oxygen. The ad will also be shown during the N.F.L. conference championship games next Sunday.Dr. Dennard, a professor at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School in Dallas, is one of more than a dozen women suing the State of Texas to clarify the “medical emergency” exception to the state’s abortion ban.In July, she testified that because she was not “critically ill,” she did not believe she would qualify for an abortion under the “extremely nebulous and confusing” law. Separately, she also met with Jill Biden as part of an effort to raise awareness about abortion bans.“Even prayed-for, planned pregnancies can end in abortion,” she told the first lady. “The state of Texas should not be making these decisions for me or for anybody else.” More

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      Inside the Heritage Foundation’s Plans for ‘Institutionalizing Trumpism’

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      Since taking over the Heritage Foundation in 2021, Kevin D. Roberts has been making his mark on an institution that came to prominence during the Reagan years and has long been seen as an incubator of conservative policy and thought. Roberts, who was not well known outside policy circles when he took over, has pushed the think tank away from its hawkish roots by arguing against funding the war in Ukraine, a turnabout that prompted some of Heritage’s policy analysts to leave. Now he’s looking ahead, to the 2024 election and beyond. Roberts told me that he views Heritage’s role today as “institutionalizing Trumpism.” This includes leading Project 2025, a transition blueprint that outlines a plan to consolidate power in the executive branch, dismantle federal agencies and recruit and vet government employees to free the next Republican president from a system that Roberts views as stacked against conservative power. The lesson of Trump’s first year in office, Roberts told me, is that “the Trump administration, with the best of intentions, simply got a slow start. And Heritage and our allies in Project 2025 believe that must never be repeated.”You’ve taken the Heritage Foundation, once a bastion of the Reagan doctrine of peace through strength, in a different direction. Under you, Heritage has vocally opposed recent aid packages to Ukraine. It has criticized the Biden administration for what you’ve said is a lack of transparency when it comes to how the money is being spent and how you believe those packages are impacting the administration’s domestic priorities. Can you explain some of your thinking on that pivot?Yeah, sure. But perhaps it would be helpful to start with my perception of those examples you mentioned relative to the Reagan principle of peace through strength. We believe that the manner in which the Ukraine aid packages have been put together, the manner in which they’ve been debated or really not debated in Congress, the manner in which they’ve not been analyzed, the manner in which there’s no transparency, the fact that there’s no strategy actually is a violation of the principle of peace through strength. So while much ink has been spilled about Heritage no longer believing in peace through strength, that’s not true. But I don’t want to dismiss the part of your question about the shift in the conservative movement toward more skepticism, if not restraint, in foreign policy, and I think a lot of that is prudent. Because what the American people are saying, conservatives in particular, but not exclusively conservatives, is why are we prioritizing any other place internationally above the problems we have in the United States?I hear you that there are a lot of problems at home to be solved, and they’re costly problems. But we had Russia invade a sovereign country on the doorstep of a democratic Europe. Does it not seem to you squarely within the U.S. national interest to stop Russian aggression?We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More