Subterms
If Brazil’s election sparks mass unrest, the country’s so-called military police force would be called upon to restore order, giving them tremendous power to affect outcomes.You’re reading the The Interpreter newsletter, for Times subscribers only. More
El principal contrapeso al poder del presidente Jair Bolsonaro ha sido el Supremo Tribunal Federal de Brasil. Ahora muchos temen que el organismo se convierta en una amenaza.RÍO DE JANEIRO — El chat grupal en WhatsApp era una especie de vestidor de gimnasio para decenas de los más grandes empresarios de Brasil. Estaba un magnate de centros comerciales, el fundador de una tienda de ropa para surfear y el multimillonario de la tienda departamental más conocida de Brasil. Se quejaban de la inflación, enviaban memes y, a veces, compartían opiniones incendiarias.El Times More
President Jair Bolsonaro called his supporters and the military to the streets to celebrate Brazil’s 200th anniversary. Then he softened his campaign tone.RIO DE JANEIRO — On the 200th anniversary of Brazil’s independence, President Jair Bolsonaro had roughly half the country celebrating and half the country on edge.Tanks rolled down the streets of São Paulo, the country’s largest city, on Wednesday. Warships paraded off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Jets soared over the nation’s capital, Brasília. And more than a million of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters took to the streets across the vast nation, draped in the green and yellow of Brazil’s flag.For months, the bicentennial had been billed as a test of Brazil’s democracy.The left in Brazil feared that Mr. Bolsonaro would use the moment to declare war on Brazil’s democratic institutions and preview an attempt to hold onto power if he loses the presidential election next month. The right said it would simply be a peaceful Independence Day celebration — with a clear tilt toward the nation’s president — as it had been in years past.In the end, the atmosphere was more of a party than an uprising. And Mr. Bolsonaro — who for months has made worrisome comments about the security of the elections and his willingness to accept the results — took a markedly softer tack in two speeches to his supporters.An aircraft team performing acrobatics over Copacabana beach during Independence Day celebrations in Rio de Janeiro.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesHe touted what he said were his accomplishments — cheap fuel, relatively low inflation — and focused on campaign promises, including keeping abortion and drugs illegal and fighting what he calls “gender ideology,” or the movement to re-examine the concept of gender.Perhaps his most forceful comments were calling his political rivals “evil” and warning that they would try to break the laws in the Constitution. “Wait for the re-election and see if everyone plays by the rules,” he said. At one point, he appeared to reflect on his past comments: “We all change. We all improve. We can all be better in the future.”The shift in tone was in line with advice Mr. Bolsonaro has been receiving from some senior advisers, who have warned him that attacking the country’s elections systems and democratic institutions is not particularly popular with the moderate voters he needs to win over to prevail in October’s election, according to one senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential meetings.There have also been recent signs of a truce between election officials and Brazil’s armed forces, which have backed Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims that Brazil’s elections systems are vulnerable.Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters have repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that the election in Brazil will be rigged.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesYet Mr. Bolsonaro has shifted tones frequently in the past. The morning before the bicentennial celebrations, he was casting doubt on Brazil’s voting machines in an interview with a right-wing news network. And last Independence Day, his speech caused a brief institutional crisis after he said he would not respect the decisions of one Supreme Court justice. Days later, he walked those comments back.The election, pitting Mr. Bolsonaro against the former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will be one of the most closely watched votes in Latin America in decades. Brazilians will cast their ballots on Oct. 2 and, if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, again on Oct. 30 in a runoff. Mr. da Silva has held a steady and comfortable lead in the polls.Mr. Bolsonaro, a right-wing nationalist, has made attacks on Brazil’s Supreme Court and its elections systems central to his political rhetoric for years. He has argued, with little evidence, that Brazil’s electronic voting machines are vulnerable to fraud, and he has accused several Supreme Court justices of political persecution..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.Learn more about our process.Those judges cleared corruption charges against Mr. da Silva, freeing him from prison and allowing him to run in this year’s election. They have forced social networks to take down inflammatory or false posts from Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters (as well as from Mr. da Silva). And they are investigating Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies in a number of cases, including for accusations of spreading misinformation and leaking classified information.One judge, Alexandre de Moraes, who is also Brazil’s new elections chief, stoked tensions further last month when he ordered several prominent businessmen’s homes to be searched, their bank accounts to be frozen and some of their social-media accounts to be blocked. His evidence supporting the action was a series of leaked text messages that suggested the businessmen would support a military coup if Mr. da Silva won the presidency.A military parade on Wednesday commemorating the 200th anniversary of Brazilian independence in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesMr. Bolsonaro has called Mr. Moraes’s actions against the businessmen a gross abuse of power. On Wednesday, he said the men’s privacy was violated. Earlier in the day, one of those businessmen, Luciano Hang, the owner of a Brazilian department-store chain, stood between Mr. Bolsonaro and the president of Portugal for a period as they watched the military parade in Brasília.Mr. Bolsonaro had called his supporters to the streets to celebrate “our sacred liberty.” Political analysts and leaders on the left had worried about the prospects of violence; a group of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters had tried and failed to get past the barricades of the Supreme Court during similar Independence Day celebrations last year.Yet the festivities were peaceful. There were families with children, older people in wheelchairs, and vendors selling beer, snacks, Brazilian flags and shirts with Mr. Bolsonaro’s face. Authorities had increased security, including deploying snipers and drones, and there were few signs that supporters were planning to challenge the country’s institutions beyond chants that Mr. da Silva belonged in jail and that Mr. Moraes should be impeached.Despite Mr. Bolsonaro’s toned-down rhetoric, his supporters still wanted to focus on the Supreme Court and the voting machines.“The Supreme Court is supposed to be the guardian of the Constitution, and yet every day they’re finding a new way to rip it up,” said Gabriel Miguel, 32, a real-estate lawyer draped in a Brazilian flag and wearing a camouflage hat. He accused Mr. da Silva’s party of cheating in past elections, and said there would be consequences if they attempted fraud this year. “They wouldn’t dare to do anything against democracy,” he said.Supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro in São Paulo on Wednesday, where merchants peddled Bolsonaro-related items.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesMany Brazilians on the left accused Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters of co-opting Brazil’s bicentennial celebrations for a political event. Mr. da Silva told his supporters to instead join him for a rally in Rio on Thursday.Mr. Bolsonaro arrived at his speech in Rio on a motorcycle, leading a parade of motorcycles driven by supporters. Such “motociatas,” or motorcycle rallies, have been a hallmark of his political brand, featured prominently in his campaign videos, and his way of visiting areas of Brazil outside major population centers.In Brasília, he watched the military parade from a stage with his wife, Michelle, and a phalanx of government and military officials. “We are here to fulfill God’s calling,” Michelle Bolsonaro told the crowd. “The enemy shall not win.”In his speech there, Mr. Bolsonaro continued his strategy of making his masculinity a central part of his campaign. “I’ve been telling single men, singles who are tired of being unhappy, find a woman,” he said. “A princess. Marry her.” He then kissed Michelle.The crowd began chanting “imbrochável,” a slightly vulgar Portuguese word that translates roughly to “never limp” that Mr. Bolsonaro has adopted as part of his political brand.Mr. Bolsonaro joined the crowd and chanted: “Never limp! Never limp! Never limp!”More than a million supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro turned out across the country on Wednesday, including in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesAndré Spigariol contributed reporting from Brasília, and Lis Moriconi from Rio de Janeiro. More
RIO DE JANEIRO — It’s election season in Brazil, and the usual buzz of activity fills the air. The press is eagerly following the campaigns, running profiles of candidates and speculating about future coalitions. Supporters of the candidate in the lead, the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, are heatedly debating who the next cabinet ministers will be. And all involved are crisscrossing the country for rallies, in an energetic effort to get out the vote.Yet Jair Bolsonaro, the country’s far-right president, stands apart. While his challengers have spent months looking forward to the election, he has sought to preemptively discredit it. He has questioned the role of the Supreme Court and cast doubt, volubly and often, on the electoral process. He speaks as if the election is an encumbrance, an irritation. He says he will not accept any result that is not a victory.To some, this looks like the groundwork for a coup. In this view, Mr. Bolsonaro intends to refuse any election result that does not please him and, with the help of the military, install himself as president permanently. The reading is half right: Mr. Bolsonaro doesn’t intend to leave office, regardless of the election results. But it’s not a coup, with its need for elite consensus and eschewal of mass mobilization, he’s after. It’s a revolution.Since the beginning of his term, Mr. Bolsonaro has behaved more like a revolutionary leader than a president. In his first month in office, he said that his role was not to build anything, but to “undo” everything. Rather than run a government, he’s tried to disrupt it. He refused to fill roles in crucial regulatory agencies, placed supporters with no technical expertise in high positions, underfunded social programs, punished civil servants for doing their jobs and neglected to provide a coordinated response to the pandemic, which killed over 680,000 Brazilians.It’s not destruction for its own sake, however. Dismantling the state is how Mr. Bolsonaro galvanizes his supporters. By identifying clear enemies and antagonizing them, he excites his followers and, crucially, enlists their support. Everything he does — decrees, bills, pronouncements, demonstrations, alliances — is framed for the digital infrastructure of YouTube, Telegram and WhatsApp. The more radical his actions and words, the more engagement he generates.Support for Mr. Bolsonaro may start online, but it leads to the streets. For the past year, Mr. Bolsonaro has conducted a bimonthly “motociata,” a march with thousands of motorcycles that looks very much like a brute show of strength. His presidency, in fact, aspires to be a permanent rally. On Sept. 7 last year, Brazil’s Independence Day, he gathered almost half a million people to protest against the Supreme Court. On the same day this year, he has promised a big military parade to show the army’s support for his government.It’s not just the military. Many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s most fervent supporters are notable for their power over common citizens. He is popular among police officers — a 2021 study estimated that 51 percent of Brazilian street-level police officers were active members of pro-Bolsonaro groups online — and he is also a favored candidate among gun owners. Of those who approve of his government, 18 percent say they already have a gun at home and almost half would like to have one.They may get their wish. One of the major achievements of the Bolsonaro administration has been to weaken gun control, flooding the country with firearms. In 2018, there were around 115,000 people with special licenses to carry a gun in the country. Now there are over 670,000 people holding these licenses — more than in the police and the armed forces. A substantial number of them adore Mr. Bolsonaro and are organized into a vast network of nearly 2,000 gun clubs.Militant and committed, these are the foot soldiers of any future revolution. There’s a lot we don’t know about how that might come about. But it’s clear that if a contingent of supporters, armed and determined to keep Mr. Bolsonaro in power, burst into Brasília, the capital, it would create chaos. In many major cities, it’s not impossible to imagine an insurrection led by police forces — while truck drivers, overwhelmingly pro-Bolsonaro, could block the roads as they did in 2018, creating havoc. Evangelical pastors, whose congregants by large margins support the president, could bless those efforts as part of the fight for good against evil. Out of such anarchy, Mr. Bolsonaro could forge dictatorial order.Who will stop him? Probably not the army. Mr. Bolsonaro, after all, has many supporters in the military and over 6,000 military personnel working in his government, filling civilian roles. For its part, the army seems to be relatively relaxed about a possible takeover and has — to put it mildly — no special attachment to democracy. There is no sign, as far as can be seen, that the armed forces could be protagonists of a coup. But neither is there a sign that they would resist an attempt at revolution.Democratic forces are unlikely to fare much better. For all Mr. da Silva’s popularity, left-wingers seem to have lost their capacity to rally the masses. The 13 years of a left-led government that ended in 2016 did much to disperse and weaken social movements, and they have struggled in the years since to recover their dynamism. Demonstrations against Mr. Bolsonaro, for example, have been poorly attended. And political violence is on the rise: A member of Mr. da Silva’s party, for example, was recently killed by a Bolsonaro supporter. People would certainly think twice before going to the streets to defend a Lula victory.The best bulwark against a revolution, curiously, might be the United States. The Biden administration could make clear the profound costs, in the form of sanctions and international isolation, that would follow any seizure of power. That in turn could frighten big Brazilian businesses — which, as influential backers, can exert considerable pressure on Mr. Bolsonaro — into defending democracy. If the difficulties of executing a revolution are too great and the rewards seem slim, it’s conceivable that Mr. Bolsonaro will back down — or simply stage a performance, as former President Donald Trump did, to maintain control over his followers and prepare the ground for the next election.The last time Brazil experienced similar political chaos was in 1964, when a military coup removed a democratic government that was trying to carry out progressive reforms. It took just a few hours for the United States, then led by Lyndon Johnson, to recognize the new government of Brazil.A lot hinges on the hope that the United States now values democracy a bit more.Miguel Lago is the executive director of the Institute for Health Policy Studies and teaches at Columbia University.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More
President Jair Bolsonaro has claimed that Brazil’s voting machines are vulnerable to fraud, with little evidence. Election officials agreed to explore changes to security tests before the October election.BRASÍLIA — President Jair Bolsonaro has made Brazil’s electronic voting machines the center of his attacks on the country’s electoral system, despite little evidence that the machines are at risk, raising concerns he will contest the presidential election results if he loses in October.But it now appears that, after quarreling for months, the president’s allies and Brazil’s election officials are starting to make peace.In a private meeting on Wednesday, Brazil’s elections chief and the country’s defense minister agreed to explore changes to security tests of the voting machines that the armed forces have sought for months, according to election officials.While the two sides have not yet finalized the details, Alexandre de Moraes, Brazil’s elections chief, said he would try to have some tests carried out on Election Day on machines that had just been used by voters, as the military has requested, according to a person involved in the meeting who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the talks were private.Fábio Faria, Brazil’s communications minister and a senior adviser to Mr. Bolsonaro, said in a text message that Mr. Faria felt the issue had been resolved.With less than five weeks left before the election, the agreement represented a notable détente that could weaken the president’s ability to claim voter fraud.Brazil’s armed forces have been a key ally of Mr. Bolsonaro in his criticism of the voting machines as vulnerable to fraud, despite little evidence. Mr. Bolsonaro, in turn, has said that he trusts the armed forces to ensure the elections are safe. In recent interviews, military officials have said that the security tests were their principal remaining concern. And now it appears that election officials are trying to comply with the military’s requests.The easing of tensions is positive for the outlook of Brazil’s elections, but Mr. Bolsonaro has agreed to similar truces in the past and then later continued his criticism of the electoral system.Brazil’s election officials have been planning to run security tests on 600 voting machines on Election Day by simulating the voting process on each machine. Those tests are scheduled to be completed in a controlled room outside voting stations.The military has said it is concerned that sophisticated malicious software could evade such simulated tests. For example, hacking software could be designed not to activate unless a real voter unlocked the machine with a fingerprint.Judge Alexandre de Moraes at his inauguration as head of the country’s Superior Electoral Tribunal, in mid-August.Antonio Augusto/Superior Electoral Tribunal, via Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesElection security experts in Brazil have said such a scenario is technically possible but highly unlikely because of other controls in the voting machines. There has been no evidence of material fraud in Brazil’s voting machines.To solve for the hypothetical, the military has asked for security tests to be completed in actual voting centers during the election, on machines that were just used by actual voters.Elections officials had previously said such changes to the security tests so close to Election Day were not feasible. But on Wednesday, Mr. Moraes told Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, Brazil’s defense minister, that he would try to change the security tests for a limited number of machines. Military officials have suggested changing the tests for two to four machines per state in Brazil, but Mr. Moraes said Wednesday that he needed to discuss the issue with other elections officials to determine how many would be possible, according to the person involved in the meeting.The meeting over coffee between Mr. Moraes and Mr. Nogueira was positive and cordial, the person said.Military officials have said that they want certainty that there is no malicious software installed on the machines because Brazil’s voting system lacks paper backups for potential audits if there is suspicion of fraud.Mr. Bolsonaro has repeatedly claimed that the voting machines can be hacked, but when pressed for evidence, he has cited a 2018 hack of election officials’ computer network, which is not connected to the voting machines. A federal investigation into that hack concluded that the hackers could not gain access to any voting machines. Mr. Bolsonaro has not presented other evidence of past fraud. More
El presidente Bolsonaro ha advertido la posibilidad de fraude e insinuado que impugnará los resultados si pierde. La élite política considera que no tiene respaldo para intentar aferrarse al poder.Una pregunta simple pero alarmante domina el discurso político en Brasil cuando faltan apenas seis semanas para las elecciones nacionales: ¿Aceptará el presidente Jair Bolsonaro los resultados?Durante meses, Bolsonaro ha atacado a las máquinas de votación electrónica de Brasil diciendo que están plagadas de fraude —a pesar de que prácticamente no hay pruebas— y a los funcionarios electorales de Brasil por estar alineados contra él. Ha insinuado que disputaría cualquier derrota a menos que se realicen cambios en los procedimientos electorales. Ha alistado a los militares brasileños en su batalla. Y ha dicho a sus decenas de millones de seguidores que se preparen para luchar.“Si es necesario”, dijo en un discurso reciente, “iremos a la guerra”.Con la votación del 2 de octubre, Brasil se sitúa ahora en la vanguardia de las crecientes amenazas globales a la democracia, impulsadas por líderes populistas, extremismo, electorados muy polarizados y desinformación en internet. La cuarta democracia más poblada del mundo se prepara para la posibilidad de que su presidente se niegue a dejar el poder por acusaciones de fraude que podrían ser difíciles de desmentir.Sin embargo, según entrevistas con más de 35 funcionarios del gobierno de Bolsonaro, generales militares, jueces federales, autoridades electorales, miembros del Congreso y diplomáticos extranjeros, la élite del poder en Brasil se siente confiada de que, aunque Bolsonaro pudiera disputar los resultados de las elecciones, carece del apoyo institucional para dar un golpe de Estado exitoso.El último golpe de Brasil, en 1964, condujo a una brutal dictadura militar que duró 21 años. “La clase media lo apoyó. Los empresarios lo apoyaron. La prensa lo apoyó. Y Estados Unidos lo apoyó”, dijo Luís Roberto Barroso, juez del Supremo Tribunal Federal y ex jefe de la autoridad electoral de Brasil. “Pues bien, ninguno de estos actores apoya un golpe ahora”.Personas preparándose para un paseo en moto celebrado en apoyo de Bolsonaro en Salvador, Brasil.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesEn cambio, los funcionarios se preocupan por el daño duradero a las instituciones democráticas de Brasil —las encuestas muestran que una quinta parte del país ha perdido la fe en los sistemas electorales— y por la violencia en las calles. Las afirmaciones de fraude de Bolsonaro y su potencial negativa a aceptar una derrota se hacen eco de las de su aliado Donald Trump; los funcionarios brasileños mencionaron repetidamente el ataque del 6 de enero de 2021 en el Capitolio de Estados Unidos como un ejemplo de lo que podría suceder.“¿Cómo tenemos algún control sobre esto?”, dijo Flávio Bolsonaro, senador e hijo de Bolsonaro, en una entrevista con el periódico brasileño Estadão en referencia a la violencia potencial. En Estados Unidos, dijo, “la gente estuvo al tanto de los problemas del sistema electoral, se indignó e hizo lo que hizo. No hubo orden del presidente Trump y no habrá orden del presidente Bolsonaro”.Este mes, más de un millón de brasileños, entre los que se encuentran expresidentes, académicos de alto nivel, abogados y estrellas del pop, firmaron una carta en defensa de los sistemas de votación del país. Los principales grupos empresariales de Brasil también publicaron una carta similar.El martes, en un acto al que acudieron casi todas las principales figuras políticas brasileñas, otro magistrado del Supremo Tribunal Federal, Alexandre de Moraes, asumió el cargo de nuevo jefe de elecciones del país y advirtió que castigaría los ataques al proceso electoral.“La libertad de expresión no es libertad para destruir la democracia, para destruir las instituciones”, dijo. Su reacción, añadió, “será rápida, firme e implacable”.La multitud se puso en pie y aplaudió. Bolsonaro se quedó sentado y frunció el ceño.Bolsonaro, cuyos representantes declinaron las solicitudes de entrevista, ha dicho que está tratando de proteger la democracia de Brasil mediante el fortalecimiento de sus sistemas de votación.Entre los funcionarios entrevistados, hubo un amplio desacuerdo sobre si al presidente derechista lo impulsaba una genuina preocupación por el fraude o simplemente el miedo a perder. Bolsonaro ha quedado constantemente por detrás del expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, un izquierdista, en las encuestas de opinión; si nadie gana la mayoría de los votos el 2 de octubre, está prevista una segunda vuelta para el 30 de octubre.Bolsonaro va por detrás del expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva en las encuestas.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesSin embargo, hay cada vez más esperanzas de que suceda una transición sin sobresaltos si Bolsonaro pierde, porque el mandatario ahora parece estar dispuesto a una tregua.Sus aliados, incluyendo altos oficiales de las fuerzas armadas, están a punto de comenzar negociaciones con De Moraes sobre los cambios al sistema electoral diseñados para atender las críticas de seguridad del presidente, según tres jueces federales y un alto funcionario del gobierno cercano a las conversaciones previstas, que hablaron bajo la condición de anonimato porque son confidenciales.La idea es que Bolsonaro retroceda en sus ataques a las máquinas de votación, dijeron estas personas, si los funcionarios electorales aceptan algunos cambios solicitados por los militares de Brasil.“Tengo plena confianza en el sistema electoral de Brasil. Eso tampoco significa que sea infalible”, dijo Ciro Nogueira, jefe de gabinete de Bolsonaro. “Estoy seguro de que, como dice el presidente, el pueblo tendrá su opinión”. Y el sábado, Bolsonaro pareció insinuar en un mitin que aceptaría los resultados de las elecciones.Sin embargo, Bolsonaro ha hecho comentarios similares en el pasado y acordó una tregua similar el año pasado… y luego continuó sus ataques.Esos ataques han surtido efecto. Desde junio, los usuarios brasileños de Twitter han mencionado las máquinas de votación de Brasil más que la inflación o los programas de bienestar social en relación con las elecciones, y casi tanto como los precios de la gasolina, que han sido un punto importante del debate político, según un análisis realizado por investigadores de la Escuela de Comunicación de la Fundación Getúlio Vargas solicitado por The New York Times.Partidarios de Bolsonaro en Salvador, BrasilVictor Moriyama para The New York TimesUn sondeo realizado el mes pasado mostró que el 32 por ciento de los brasileños confía “un poco” en las máquinas de votación y el 20 por ciento no confía en ellas para nada.Y mientras que bastantes de los partidarios de Bolsonaro están convencidos de que el voto puede estar amañado, muchos más también tienen armas. Bolsonaro facilitó la compra de armas de fuego por parte de civiles con restricciones más laxas para los cazadores, y ahora más de 670.000 brasileños poseen armas bajo esas normas, 10 veces más que hace cinco años.Dentro de su gobierno, Bolsonaro se ha visto cada vez más dividido entre dos facciones.Una de ellas ha animado al presidente a dejar de atacar las máquinas de votación porque creen que el tema es impopular entre los votantes más moderados que necesita ganar y porque la economía de Brasil está repuntando, lo que ayuda a sus posibilidades de reelección, según dos altos asesores del presidente.Dijeron que el otro grupo, liderado por antiguos generales militares, ha alimentado al presidente con información errónea y lo ha instado a seguir advirtiendo de posibles fraudes.Los funcionarios electorales invitaron el año pasado a los militares a unirse a un comité para mejorar los sistemas electorales. Los militares sugirieron una serie de cambios, pero los funcionarios electorales dijeron que no podrían aplicarse a tiempo para la votación de octubre.Pero los líderes militares siguen presionando en busca de un cambio en particular: que las pruebas de integridad de las máquinas de votación se realicen con votantes reales, en lugar de con simulaciones.Durante meses, Bolsonaro ha acusado a los funcionarios electorales de estar alineados en contra suya.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesA los militares les preocupa que un pirata informático pueda implantar un software malicioso en las máquinas de votación que reconozca las simulaciones y permanezca inactivo durante esas pruebas, lo que le permitiría evadir la detección.Un experto en seguridad electoral dijo que tal hackeo es concebible pero improbable.De Moraes, el nuevo jefe de elecciones, ha señalado que estaría dispuesto a realizar cambios en los sistemas de votación, aunque no está claro lo que podría lograrse para el 2 de octubre.Bolsonaro lleva mucho tiempo en desacuerdo con De Moraes, que ha dirigido las investigaciones sobre las denuncias de desinformación y filtraciones de material clasificado que implican al presidente y a sus aliados. Bolsonaro ha criticado a De Moraes por considerarlo políticamente motivado, y dijo en un mitin el año pasado que ya no acataría sus dictámenes, declaración de la que luego se retractó.Por lo tanto, se esperaba que el ascenso de De Moraes a la presidencia del tribunal superior electoral de Brasil agravara aún más las tensiones.Pero en las últimas semanas, él y Bolsonaro han comenzado a chatear por WhatsApp en un esfuerzo por arreglar su relación, según una persona cercana al presidente. Cuando De Moraes le entregó en mano una invitación para su investidura como presidente del tribunal electoral este mes, Bolsonaro le regaló una camiseta del Corinthians, el equipo de fútbol favorito de De Moraes. (El Corinthians es el archienemigo del equipo favorito de Bolsonaro, el Palmeiras).Con las tensiones a flor de piel, los dirigentes brasileños decidieron hacer de la toma de posesión de De Moraes el martes de la semana pasada —normalmente un acto de trámite— una demostración de la fortaleza de la democracia brasileña.Las caravanas de motos se han convertido en algo habitual en los actos de apoyo al presidente en todo el país.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesEn un anfiteatro modernista y subterráneo, los jefes del Congreso brasileño, el Supremo Tribunal Federal y los militares se unieron a cinco de los seis presidentes vivos de Brasil para la ceremonia, incluidos Bolsonaro y Lula da Silva.Las cámaras enfocaron a Bolsonaro junto a De Moraes en la mesa principal, una escena poco habitual. Conversaron en voz baja, a veces entre risas, durante todo el evento. Entonces De Moraes se levantó para su discurso. Antes del evento, había advertido a Bolsonaro que no lo disfrutaría, según una persona cercana al presidente.“Somos la única democracia del mundo que calcula y publica los resultados electorales en el mismo día, con agilidad, seguridad, competencia y transparencia”, dijo. “La democracia no es un camino fácil, exacto o predecible. Pero es el único camino”.La sala le dedicó una ovación de 40 segundos. Bolsonaro fue de los primeros en dejar de aplaudir.Después, los dos hombres posaron para una foto. No sonrieron.Jack Nicas es el jefe de la corresponsalía del Times en Brasil, que abarca Brasil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. Antes cubría tecnología desde San Francisco. Antes de unirse al Times, en 2018, trabajó durante siete años en The Wall Street Journal. @jacknicas • Facebook More
President Bolsonaro has warned of voter fraud and suggested he would dispute a loss in October’s vote, but the political establishment believes he lacks support to stage a coup.BRASÍLIA — A simple but alarming question is dominating political discourse in Brazil with just six weeks left until national elections: Will President Jair Bolsonaro accept the results?For months, Mr. Bolsonaro has attacked Brazil’s electronic voting machines as rife with fraud — despite virtually no evidence — and Brazil’s election officials as aligned against him. He has suggested that he would dispute any loss unless changes are made in election procedures. He has enlisted Brazil’s military in his battle. And he has told his tens of millions of supporters to prepare for a fight.“If need be,” he said in a recent speech, “we will go to war.”With its vote on Oct. 2, Brazil is now at the forefront of the growing global threats to democracy, fueled by populist leaders, extremism, highly polarized electorates and internet disinformation. The world’s fourth-largest democracy is bracing for the possibility of its president refusing to step down because of fraud allegations that could be difficult to disprove.Yet, according to interviews with more than 35 Bolsonaro administration officials, military generals, federal judges, election authorities, members of Congress and foreign diplomats, the people in power in Brazil feel confident that while Mr. Bolsonaro could dispute the election’s results, he lacks the institutional support to stage a successful coup.Brazil’s last coup, in 1964, led to a brutal 21-year military dictatorship. “The middle class supported it. Business people supported it. The press supported it. And the U.S. supported it,” said Luís Roberto Barroso, a Supreme Court justice and Brazil’s former elections chief. “Well, none of these players support a coup now.”People preparing for a motorcycle ride in Salvador, Brazil, held in support of Mr. Bolsonaro. Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesInstead, the officials worry about lasting damage to Brazil’s democratic institutions — polls show a fifth of the country has lost faith in the election systems — and about violence in the streets. Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims of fraud and potential refusal to accept a loss echo those of his ally Donald J. Trump, and Brazilian officials repeatedly cited the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol as an example of what could happen.“How do we have any control over this?” Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and Mr. Bolsonaro’s son, said in an interview with the Brazilian newspaper Estadão in reference to potential violence. In the United States, he said, “people followed the problems in the electoral system, were outraged and did what they did. There was no command from President Trump, and there will be no command from President Bolsonaro.”This month, more than one million Brazilians, including former presidents, top academics, lawyers and pop stars, signed a letter defending the country’s voting systems. Brazil’s top business groups also released a similar letter.On Tuesday, at an event with nearly every major Brazilian political figure present, another Supreme Court justice, Alexandre de Moraes, took office as the nation’s new elections chief and warned that he would punish attacks on the electoral process.“Freedom of expression is not freedom to destroy democracy, to destroy institutions,” he said. His reaction, he added, “will be swift, firm and relentless.”The crowd stood and applauded. Mr. Bolsonaro sat and scowled.Mr. Bolsonaro, whose representatives declined requests for an interview, has said that he is trying to protect Brazil’s democracy by strengthening its voting systems.Among the officials interviewed, there was broad disagreement over whether the right-wing president was driven by genuine concern about fraud or just fear of losing. Mr. Bolsonaro has consistently trailed former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist, in opinion surveys; if no one wins a majority of the vote on Oct. 2, a runoff is scheduled for Oct. 30.Mr. Bolsonaro trails the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the polls.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesYet there are increasing hopes for a smooth transition of power if Mr. Bolsonaro loses — because he now appears open to a truce.His allies, including top officials in the armed forces, are about to begin negotiations with Mr. de Moraes about changes to Brazil’s election system designed to address the president’s security critiques, according to three federal judges and one senior administration official close to the planned talks, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are confidential.The idea is that Mr. Bolsonaro would back off his attacks on the voting machines, these people said, if election officials agreed to some changes requested by Brazil’s military. More
Six weeks ahead of national elections, the Brazilian president was confronted by a protester who tried to ask questions on video. He grabbed the man’s shirt, then tried to snatch his phone.ReutersRIO DE JANEIRO — A motorcade of black vehicles approached Brazil’s presidential palace on Thursday afternoon and then, surprisingly, stopped. To the delight of a crowd gathered under the afternoon sun, out of one of the cars stepped President Jair Bolsonaro.About two dozen selfie-seekers swarmed the president, who smiled and posed for photos. It was one of the impromptu meet-and-greets that Mr. Bolsonaro has become known for during his campaign for re-election.Then the cheerful vibe broke. One man in the crowd began shouting, demanding answers about one of Mr. Bolsonaro’s policies. Mr. Bolsonaro got back into his vehicle.“I’m here every day, Bolsonaro. I want to see you be brave enough to come talk to me,” shouted the protester, Wilker Leão, as he recorded himself on his phone. Repeatedly, he hurled an insult at the president that roughly translates to “the pork-barrelers’ little lap dog,” though a bit more vulgar.President Jair Bolsonaro at a campaign stop in São José dos Campos on Thursday.Carla Carniel/ReutersSuddenly the president exited the vehicle, grabbed Mr. Leão’s shirt and tried to snatch his phone. “Come here,” Mr. Bolsonaro said, gripping Mr. Leão’s arm as he tried to get away. “I want to talk to you.”It was a surprising scene, even by the standards of a president who has rewritten Brazil’s standards for how the leader of Latin America’s largest nation should act. (Think vulgar attacks on his rivals, a stream of false statements and a refusal to admit whether he has been vaccinated.) Video of the incident rocketed around the Brazilian internet — a president scuffling with a constituent just six weeks ahead of national elections.To the political left in Brazil, it was another example of why Mr. Bolsonaro is not fit to serve in the nation’s highest office. To the right, it was another example of how Mr. Bolsonaro is authentic and a man not afraid to take on his critics.What remains to be seen is the incident’s effect on the moderate voters who will effectively decide the election. Mr. Bolsonaro has consistently trailed former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in opinion surveys, though he has recently gained ground, buoyed by Brazil’s improving economy. If no one receives a majority of the votes in the Oct. 2 election, there will be a runoff on Oct. 30.Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the front-runner in the coming presidential election, campaigning in São Paulo on Saturday.Miguel Schincariol/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAfter Mr. Bolsonaro grabbed Mr. Leão, the president’s security team quickly pushed the man away, as seen in footage captured by a journalist for the Brazilian news organization G1, as well as by Mr. Leão’s own video. The president’s team then told people to stop filming. The G1 journalist continued to film. Mr. Bolsonaro posed for more photos.Eventually Mr. Leão walked back over, surrounded by the president’s security detail.“Why so aggressive?” Mr. Bolsonaro asked.“Because when I tried to come here, I was forbidden from coming in and talking to you,” Mr. Leão replied.The two men debated Brazilian politics for about five minutes before Mr. Bolsonaro got back into his vehicle and left.Mr. Bolsonaro’s representatives did not respond to a request for comment.Mr. Leão, 26, is a social-media personality with nearly 50,000 followers on both YouTube and Instagram. He told The Times that he is also a lawyer and had gone to the entrance of the presidential residence every day for more than 50 days to question the president on camera.“The main goal was to discuss the mistakes of his government, and his reaction I found quite absurd,” he said. “He likes to raise the flag of freedom of expression, but where is that freedom for the other side who questions him?”Beyond the bizarre sight of the president scuffling with a YouTuber, the insult that Mr. Leão repeatedly shouted at Mr. Bolsonaro has now taken on a life of its own, quickly inspiring memes and parody songs and even being projected onto the side of a building. Critics of Mr. Bolsonaro have quickly latched on to the insult, which is cutting, playful and slightly vulgar all at the same time, as a new label for the polarizing president.The insult — “tchutchuca do centrão” — has posed a particular challenge for foreign correspondents trying to translate it for their audiences. The translation is particularly tricky because both words, “tchutchuca” and “centrão,” are deeply Brazilian and have complicated backgrounds.The “centrão” is the powerful centrist coalition of political parties that effectively controls Congress and has long been criticized for cutting back-room deals to benefit its members and lobbyists. Translators, linguists and others with a deep knowledge of both Brazilian Portuguese and English said it could be translated as “pork barrelers,” “the political establishment” or perhaps “the Big Center.”“Tchutchuca” (pronounced choo-CHOO-kah) is even trickier. Believed to have roots in Angolan and the Indigenous Tupi language, and linked to words that mean “a little crazy” and “jumping around,” a version of it eventually became a sort of term of endearment in Brazil.Then, in 2001, a hit Brazilian funk song gave tchutchuca new life, with a chorus that went: “Come, come, tchutchuca / Come here to your tiger / I’m going to throw you on the bed.” Over time, tchutchuca came to mean a submissive woman.In 2019, the word entered the world of politics when a congressman called Brazil’s economic minister a tchutchuca to the banks.The translators and linguists said that in the context of Mr. Leão’s insult, it could be translated as the centrão’s lap dog or errand boy, or as an epithet referring to a female dog. The Associated Press settled on “darling.” Tom Phillips, the Guardian’s longtime correspondent in Brazil, considered “the establishment’s bimbo” or “pork-barrel tootsie.”Flora Thomson-DeVeaux, an American who has lived in Brazil on and off for more than a decade and who translates books from Portuguese to English, said any English translation of the Brazilian left’s new nickname for Mr. Bolsonaro fails to capture both the quirky sound and the biting, nuanced meaning.“Tchutchuca was innocent and then there was a naughty twist on it. So something like ‘pussycat’ would fit,” she said. “But pussycat is too common parlance in English, so I was thinking something that almost echoed the sound of ‘tchutchuca.’”Her answer? “If it were a novel, I might try to translate tchutchuca as pussy-wussy.”Leonardo Coelho contributed reporting More
