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      Bolsonaro Está Ficando Desesperado, e Não Há Dúvidas Sobre Suas Intenções

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      SÃO PAULO, Brasil — Há semanas, o presidente brasileiro Jair Bolsonaro tem incitado seus apoiadores a tomar as ruas. Por isso, no dia 7 de setembro, Dia da Independência, eu quase esperava ver hordas de pessoas armadas vestindo camisas verde-amarelas, algumas com chapéus de pele com chifres, invadindo o edifício do Supremo Tribunal Federal — nossa própria versão da invasão do Capitólio.Felizmente, não foi o que ocorreu. (A multidão acabou indo para casa, e ninguém tentou se sentar nas cadeiras dos juízes do Supremo.) Mas os brasileiros tiveram sua cota de caos e consternação.Para Bolsonaro, foi uma demonstração de força. Pela manhã, dirigindo-se a uma multidão de cerca de 400 mil pessoas em Brasília, ele disse que pretendia usar o tamanho do público como um “ultimato para todos os que estão na Praça dos Três Poderes.” À tarde, em um protesto em São Paulo com 125 mil pessoas, o presidente chamou as eleições de 2022 de “uma farsa” e afirmou que não irá mais cumprir as decisões de um dos juízes do Supremo. Seu propósito: “dizer aos canalhas”, urrou, “que nunca serei preso!”Parece ser parte de um plano. Ao comprar briga especificamente com o Supremo Tribunal Federal — que abriu inúmeras investigações sobre o presidente e seus aliados, incluindo seu papel em um esquema potencialmente corrupto de compra de vacinas e seus esforços para desacreditar o sistema de votação brasileiro — Bolsonaro está tentando semear uma crise institucional, com vistas a se manter no poder. No dia 9 de setembro ele tentou recuar um pouco, dizendo em uma carta que não teve “nenhuma intenção de agredir quaisquer dos poderes.” Mas suas ações são claras: ele está de fato ameaçando dar um golpe.Talvez essa seja a única saída para Bolsonaro. (Com exceção de governar propriamente o país, algo que aparentemente não lhe desperta o interesse.) Os atos bizarros do presidente, que está debilitado nas pesquisas e se vê ameaçado pela perspectiva de um impeachment, são um sinal de desespero. Mas isso não quer dizer necessariamente que não podem ter êxito.Bolsonaro tem bons motivos para se desesperar. A incompetência do governo em lidar com a pandemia de Covid-19 resultou na morte de 587 mil brasileiros; o país ostenta taxas históricas de desemprego e desigualdade econômica; e também sofre com uma crescente inflação, pobreza e fome. Ah, e temos uma enorme crise energética a caminho.Tudo isso cobrou um preço alto do prestígio de Bolsonaro junto aos brasileiros. Em julho, a taxa de reprovação do presidente subiu para 51 por cento, maior índice da história, de acordo com o Datafolha. E para as eleições presidenciais do ano que vem, a situação também não é muito favorável. Na verdade, as pesquisas indicam que ele vai perder. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, ex-presidente de centro-esquerda, está superando Bolsonaro com certa folga. Se as coisas continuarem como estão, Bolsonaro perde para todos os possíveis adversários no segundo turno.Isso explica a avidez do presidente em promover acusações infundadas de fraude no sistema eletrônico de votação do Brasil. “Não tem como comprovar que as eleições foram ou não foram fraudadas,” ele declarou sobre eleições passadas (inclusive a que ele venceu), durante uma transmissão pela TV que durou duas horas, em julho, enquanto falhava em fornecer quaisquer provas para apoiar suas alegações. Ele ameaçou repetidamente cancelar as eleições se o sistema de votação atual continuar em vigor — e embora o Congresso tenha recentemente rejeitado sua proposta de emitir recibos impressos, continua a lançar dúvidas sobre o sistema eleitoral. (Parece familiar? Alguém?)E tem também a corrupção. Há um número crescente de acusações de corrupção contra o presidente e dois de seus filhos, que também detêm cargos públicos. (Um deles é senador e o outro é vereador do Rio de Janeiro.) Promotores sugerem que a família Bolsonaro participou de um esquema conhecido como “rachadinha,” que consiste em contratar familiares ou pessoas próximas como funcionários e embolsar uma parte de seus salários.Para Bolsonaro, que foi eleito em parte com a promessa de acabar com a corrupção, essas investigações lançam uma pesada sombra. Diante desse cenário de inépcia e escândalo, os eventos de 7 de setembro foram uma tentativa de distrair e desviar a atenção pública — e, é claro, de cimentar a discórdia.Os esforços para destituir Bolsonaro por meios parlamentares estão empacados. Ainda que a oposição tenha apresentado 137 pedidos de impeachment, o processo precisa ser iniciado pelo presidente da Câmara dos Deputados, Arthur Lira, que não parece inclinado a aceitá-los. (Isso não é nada surpreendente: Lira é um dos líderes de um conjunto de partidos de centro-direita conhecido como “Centrão,” a quem Bolsonaro distribuiu cargos importantes no governo, na esperança de se blindar contra processos de impeachment.) Apenas enormes manifestações populares são capazes de quebrar o impasse.Não há tempo a perder. Os protestos da semana passada não foram um simples espetáculo político. Foram mais um passo para fortalecer a posição de Bolsonaro para uma eventual tomada de poder antes das eleições do ano que vem. Ele não conseguiu exatamente o que queria — os números, ainda que expressivos, foram muito menores do que os organizadores esperavam — mas ele vai continuar tentando.O 7 de setembro agora marca um outro momento emblemático na história do Brasil — quando os objetivos totalitários do nosso presidente se tornaram inequívocos. Para a nossa jovem democracia, pode ser uma questão de vida ou morte.Vanessa Barbara é a editora do sítio literário A Hortaliça, autora de dois romances e dois livros de não-ficção em português, e escritora de opinião do The New York Times. More

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      in Elections

      After Brazil’s Independence Day, It’s Clear What Bolsonaro Wants

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      SÃO PAULO, Brazil — For weeks, President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil has been urging his supporters to take to the streets. So on Sept. 7, Brazil’s Independence Day, I was half expecting to see mobs of armed people in yellow-and-green jerseys, some of them wearing furry hats and horns, storming the Supreme Court building — our very own imitation of the Capitol riot.Fortunately, that was not what happened. (The crowds eventually went home, and no one tried to sit in the Supreme Court justices’ chairs.) But Brazilians were not spared chaos and consternation.For Mr. Bolsonaro, it was a show of force. In the morning, addressing a crowd of around 400,000 people in Brasília, he said he intended to use the size of the crowd as an “ultimatum for everyone” in the three branches of government. In the afternoon, at a demonstration in São Paulo of 125,000 people, the president called the elections coming in 2022 “a farce” and said that he will no longer abide by rulings from one of the Supreme Court justices. “I’m letting the scoundrels know,” he bellowed, “I’ll never be imprisoned!”It seems to be part of a plan. By picking a fight in particular with the Supreme Court — which has opened several investigations of him and his allies, including of his role in a potentially corrupt vaccine procurement scheme and his efforts to discredit Brazil’s voting system — Mr. Bolsonaro is attempting to sow the seeds of an institutional crisis, with a view to retaining power. On Sept. 9 he tried to back down a little, saying in a written statement that he “never intended to attack any branch of government.” But his actions are plain: He is effectively threatening a coup.Perhaps that’s the only way out for Mr. Bolsonaro. (Apart from properly governing the country, something that apparently doesn’t interest him.) The antics of the president, struggling in the polls and menaced by the prospect of impeachment, are a sign of desperation. But that doesn’t mean they can’t succeed.Mr. Bolsonaro has good reason to be desperate. The government’s mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the deaths of 587,000 Brazilians; the country faces record rates of unemployment and economic inequality; and it’s also afflicted by soaring inflation, poverty and hunger. Oh, and there’s a huge energy crisis on the way, too.That has taken its toll on Mr. Bolsonaro’s standing with Brazilians. In July, his disapproval rating rose to 51 percent, its highest-ever mark, according to Datafolha Institute. And ahead of next year’s presidential elections, things are not looking rosy. In fact, polling suggests he’s going to lose. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the center-left politician and former president, is comfortably outstripping Mr. Bolsonaro. As things stand, Mr. Bolsonaro would lose to all possible rivals in a second-round runoff.This explains Mr. Bolsonaro’s eagerness to push unfounded claims of fraud in Brazil’s electronic voting system. “There’s no way of proving whether the elections were rigged or not,” he said about past elections (including the one he won), during a two-hour TV broadcast in July, while failing to provide any evidence to support his allegations. He has repeatedly threatened to call off the elections if the current voting system remains in place — and although Congress recently rejected his proposal to require paper receipts, he continues to cast doubt on the voting process. (Sound familiar, anyone?)Then there’s the corruption. A growing number of corruption accusations have been made against the president and two of his sons, who both hold public office. (One is a senator; the other sits on Rio de Janeiro’s City Council.) Prosecutors have suggested that the Bolsonaro family took part in a scheme known as “rachadinha,” which involves hiring close associates or family members as employees and then pocketing a portion of their salary.For Mr. Bolsonaro, who was elected in part for his promise to rout out corruption, these investigations cast a long shadow. Against this backdrop of ineptitude and scandal, the events of Sept. 7 were an attempt to distract and divert attention — and, of course, to cement divisions.Efforts to remove Mr. Bolsonaro by parliamentary means are stalled. Though the opposition has so far filed 137 impeachment requests, the process must be initiated by the speaker of the lower house, Arthur Lira, who does not seem inclined to accept them. (That’s not especially surprising: Mr. Lira is a leader of a cluster of center-right parties, known as the “centrão,” to whom Mr. Bolsonaro has handed out important government positions, in the hope of shielding himself from impeachment proceedings.) Only enormous public protests can break the impasse.There’s no time to lose. The demonstrations last week were not simply political showmanship. They were yet another move to strengthen Mr. Bolsonaro’s position for an eventual power grab ahead of next year’s elections. He didn’t get exactly what he wanted — the numbers, though substantial, were far less than organizers hoped for — but he will keep trying.Sept. 7 now marks another signal moment in Brazil’s history — when the totalitarian aims of our president became unmistakably clear. For our young democracy, it could be a matter of life or death.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      in World Politics

      Democracy Is Down but Not Out

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      Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarussian dictator, snatches a dissident from midair. Military strongman Assimi Goita launches another coup in Mali. Benjamin Netanyahu escalates a military conflict to save his own political skin in Israel. In the United States, the Republican Party launches a full-court press to suppress the vote.

      Authoritarianism, like war, makes headlines. It’s hard for democracy to compete against political crackdowns, military coups and unhinged pronouncements. Sure, democracies engage in periodic elections and produce landmark pieces of legislation. But what makes democracy, like peace, successful is not the unexpected rupture, such as the election of Barack Obama, but the boring quotidian. Citizens express their opinions in public meetings. Lawmakers receive constituents in their offices. Potholes get fixed. That’s not exactly clickbait.

      Because the absence of war doesn’t make headlines, as Stephen Pinker has argued, the news media amplifies the impression that violence is omnipresent and constantly escalating when it splashes mass murder, genocide and war crimes on the front page. Peace may well be prevalent, but it isn’t newsworthy.

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      The same can be said about democracy, which has been suffering for some time from bad press. Democracies have been dragged down by corruption, hijacked by authoritarian politicians, associated with unpopular economic reforms and proven incapable (so far) of addressing major global problems like the climate crisis. After a brief surge in popularity in the immediate post-Cold War period, democracy according to the general consensus has been in retreat.

      Judging from recent quantitative assessments, the retreat has become a rout. The title of the latest Freedom House survey, for instance, is “Democracy Under Siege.” The report details how freedom around the world has eroded for the last 15 years, with 2020 featuring the greatest decline yet. The Economist Intelligence Unit, which produces a Democracy Index every year, promoted its 2020 report with the headline, “Global Democracy Has a Very Bad Year.” The authoritarian responses to the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the worst showing so far for the model, with the average global score plummeting from the previous year. Meanwhile, the Rule of Law Index for 2020 also registered a drop for the third year in a row.

      If we extrapolate from the current trend lines, democracy will be gone in a couple of decades, melted away like the polar ice. But it’s always dangerous to make such extrapolations given history’s tendency to move in cycles not straight lines. So, let’s look at some reasons why democracy might be in for a comeback.

      The Pandemic Recedes in America

      Much of the reason for democracy’s dismal record in 2020 was the expansion of executive power and state controls in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Some of those power grabs, such as Vladimir Putin’s constitutional changes in Russia, are still in place. Some countries, like India and Brazil, are still struggling with both COVID-19 and powerful authoritarian leaders.

      But even with the continued high rate of infection in a number of countries, the overall trajectory of the disease is downward. Since peaking in late April, the reported number of global cases has dropped nearly by half. So, two trend lines are now intersecting: the lifting of pandemic restrictions and the backlash against hapless authoritarians.

      Embed from Getty Images

      Americans, for instance, are coming to terms with both the retreat of COVID and the removal of Donald Trump from the White House, Facebook and Twitter. The Biden administration is undoing many of Trump’s undemocratic moves, including those imposed during the pandemic around immigration and refugees. The attempts by the Republican Party to tamp down voter turnout proved spectacularly unsuccessful in 2020, which despite the pandemic featured the largest-ever increase in votes from one election to the next. In terms of the voting-age population, you have to go back to 1960 to find an election with a higher percentage turnout than the 62% rate in 2020.

      This surge in voters helped put Joe Biden over the top. It has also motivated the Republican Party to redouble its efforts, this time at the state level, to suppress the vote. It is doing so under the false narrative that electoral fraud is widespread and that President Biden’s victory is somehow illegitimate. And it is setting the stage to orchestrate an authentic election theft in 2024.

      The backlash against these anti-democratic moves has been encouraging, however. When the state of Georgia passed its voting restrictions in April, pressure from voting rights advocates forced prominent Georgia corporations like Coca-Cola and Delta to reverse themselves and come out against the bill (though only after the bill had already passed). Major League Baseball pulled its all-star game from Atlanta, and Hollywood has also threatened a boycott.

      These moves motivated Texas-based companies to protest that state’s version of voting restrictions before the legislature scheduled a vote. None of that stopped Texas Republicans from pushing ahead with the bill. So, last weekend, Texas Democrats had to deploy the nuclear option of walking out of the chamber to stop the vote suppression bill from passing. These courageous Texans, up against a powerful and determined state Republican Party, are now looking to the federal government to safeguard voting rights.

      At the federal level, the Democrats have put forward for the second time a comprehensive voting reform bill, the For the People Act, to expand access, reduce corruption and limit the impact of money on politics. The House approved a version of this bill in 2019, but it died in the Republican-controlled Senate. The House passed the reboot in March, but it again faces a difficult road to passage in the Senate because filibuster rules require at least 60 votes to pass and Democrats can muster only 50 (plus the vice-president’s).

      A failure to find “10 good Republicans” for this bill, the cadre that Senator Joe Manchin naively expected to step forward to pass legislation creating a commission to investigate the January 6 insurrection on Capitol Hill, may finally push the Democrats to scrap or at least significantly modify the filibuster rules, which were famously used to block further enfranchisement of African-Americans in the 20th century.

      High voter turnout and efforts to secure voting rights are not the only signs of a healthy US democracy. Last year, the largest civic protests in US history took place as tens of millions of Americans expressed their disgust with police violence in the wake of the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis. Civic organizations stepped forward to fight the pandemic and ensure more equitable access to vaccines. Young people, in particular, are engaged in large numbers on the climate crisis, gun control and reproductive health. After a long winter of discontent under Trump, perhaps it’s time for an “American Spring.”

      Mixed Record Elsewhere for Democracy

      Europe, meanwhile, is coming out of the pandemic in slightly stronger shape politically. The budget compromise that took place at the end of 2020, which ended up providing considerable relief to the economically disadvantaged countries of the southern tier, effectively saved the European Union from disintegrating out of a lack of solidarity. Alas, the compromise also watered down the EU’s criticism of its easternmost members, particularly Poland and Hungary, for their violations of the bloc’s commitments to human rights and rule of law.

      But there’s hope on the horizon here as well. Eastern Europe appears to be on the verge of a political sea change. Voters brought down Bulgaria’s right-wing populist leader Boyko Borissov in elections in April, and the new caretaker government has begun to dismantle his political system of cronyism. In Slovenia, tens of thousands of protesters have massed in the capital of Ljubljana, the largest demonstration in years, to demand the resignation of the Trump-like prime minister Janez Jansa. The near-total ban on abortion orchestrated by the right-wing government in Poland has motivated mass protests by women throughout the country, and even “Polish grannies” have mobilized in support of a free press and the rule of law. A finally united opposition in Hungary, meanwhile, is catching up in the polls to Prime Minister Viktor Orban ahead of elections next year.

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      The far right, with their contempt for human rights, free media, rule of law and political checks and balances, are the greatest threat to democracy within democracies. Fortunately, they are not doing very well in Western Europe either. The anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland has witnessed a significant drop in support in Germany, while Lega in Italy has also declined in popularity. Golden Dawn has disappeared from the scene in Greece. Vox is still the third most popular party in Spain, but it hasn’t managed to rise much above 15% in the polls, which is the same story for the Sweden Democrats (stuck at around 19%). Only in France and Finland are the far-right parties continuing to prosper. Marine Le Pen currently leads the polls against French President Emmanuel Macron ahead of next year’s election, while the Finns Party leads by a couple of percentage points in the polls but with elections not likely before 2023.

      Elsewhere in the world, the pandemic may result in more political casualties for far-right populists, as they get caught in the ebbing of the Trump wave. Brazilians are protesting throughout the country under the banner of impeaching Jair Bolsonaro, a president who, like Trump, has compiled a spectacularly poor record in dealing with COVID-19. Bolsonaro’s approval rating has fallen to a new low under 25%. The still-popular former leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, recently cleared by the courts to run again for office, appears to be assembling a broad political coalition to oust Bolsonaro in the elections set for next year.

      Hard-right leader Ivan Duque has achieved the distinction of being the least popular leader in Colombian history. Politically, it doesn’t matter so much, since he can’t run again for president in next year’s election. But the public’s disgust with the violence in Colombia and the economic inequality exacerbated by the pandemic will likely apply as well to any of his would-be hard-right successors.

      The extraordinary mishandling of the pandemic in India has had a similar effect on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, which has also recently fallen to a new low. However, after seven years in office, he remains quite popular, with a 63% approval rating.

      Modi’s Teflon reputation speaks to the fragility of democracy in many parts of the world. Many voters are attracted to right-wing nationalists like Modi — Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines, Nayib Bukele in El Salvador — who promise to “get the job done” regardless of the political and economic costs. Such leaders can rapidly turn a democratic country into a putatively democratic one, which makes the step into authentic authoritarianism that much easier.

      The coups in Mali and Myanmar, China’s crackdown in Hong Kong, the enduring miseries in North Korea, Venezuela and Eritrea — these are all reminders that, however fragile democracy might be in formally democratic states, politics can always get a lot worse.

      Lukashenko: Strong or Weak?

      Take the example of Belarus, where Alexander Lukashenko has ruled supreme since 1994. Thanks to his own ruthlessness and the patronage of neighboring Russia, Lukashenko has weathered mass protests that would have ousted leaders of weaker disposition.

      His latest outrage was to order the grounding of a Ryanair flight from Greece to Lithuania as it was flying over Belarus — just so that he could apprehend a young dissident, Roman Protasevich, and his Russian girlfriend, Sofia Sapega. Virtually everyone has decried this blatant violation of international laws and norms with the exception, of course, of Putin and others in the Russian president’s orbit. The editor of the Russian media conglomerate RT, Margarita Simonyan, tweeted, “Never did I think I would envy Belarus. But now I do. [Lukashenko] performed beautifully.”

      Embed from Getty Images

      Lukashenko indeed came across as all-powerful in this episode. But this is an illusion. Putin has not hesitated to assassinate his critics, even when they are living outside Russia. Lukashenko doesn’t have that kind of reach or audacity, so he has to wait until dissidents are within his own airspace to strike. I’d like to believe that the opposition in Belarus takes heart from this desperate move — is Lukashenko really so scared of a single dissident? —  and doubles down on its efforts to oust the tyrant.

      Outside of Putin and his toadies, Lukashenko doesn’t have many defenders. This elaborate effort to capture a dissident only further isolates the Belarussian strongman. Even putatively democratic states, like Poland and Hungary, have unequivocally denounced Lukashenko.

      Anti-democratic actions like the Ryanair stunt capture headlines in ways that pro-democratic efforts rarely do. Honestly, had you even heard of Roman Protasevich before this affair? Along with all the other depressing news of the day, from Texas to Mali, this brazen move suggests that democracy is teetering on the edge of an abyss.

      But all the patient organizing against the strongmen that doesn’t make it into the news will ultimately prove the fragility of tyranny. When it comes to anti-democrats like Lukashenko, they will one day discover that the military, the police and the party have abandoned them. And it will be they who teeter at the abyss, their hands scrabbling for a secure hold, when along comes democracy to give them a firm pat on the back.

      *[This article was originally published by FPIF.]

      The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More

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      in US Politics

      White House contacts Russia after hack of world’s largest meatpacking company

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      A ransomware attack against the world’s largest meatpacking company that has disrupted meat production in North America and Australia originated from a criminal organization probably based in Russia, the White House was informed on Tuesday.The attack on Brazil’s JBS caused its Australian operations to shut down on Monday and has stopped livestock slaughter at its plants in several US states.The ransomware attack follows one last month on Colonial Pipeline, the largest fuel pipeline in the United States, that crippled fuel delivery for several days in the US south-east.The White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said JBS had given details of the hack to the White House, that the United States had contacted Russia’s government about the matter and that the FBI was investigating.“The White House has offered assistance to JBS and our team at the Department of Agriculture have spoken to their leadership several times in the last day,” Jean-Pierre said.“JBS notified the administration that the ransom demand came from a criminal organization likely based in Russia. The White House is engaging directly with the Russian government on this matter and delivering the message that responsible states do not harbor ransomware criminals,” Jean-Pierre added.If the outages continue, US consumers could see higher meat prices during summer grilling season and meat exports could be disrupted at a time of strong demand from China.JBS said it suspended all affected systems and notified authorities. It said its backup servers were not affected.“On Sunday, May 30, JBS USA determined that it was the target of an organised cybersecurity attack, affecting some of the servers supporting its North American and Australian IT systems,” the company said in a Monday statement.“Resolution of the incident will take time, which may delay certain transactions with customers and suppliers,” the company’s statement said.The company, which has its North American operations headquartered in Greeley, Colorado, controls about 20% of the slaughtering capacity for US cattle and hogs, according to industry estimates.Two kill and fabrication shifts were canceled at JBS’s beef plant in Greeley due to the cyber-attack, representatives of the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union Local 7 said in an email. JBS Beef in Cactus, Texas, also said on Facebook it would not run on Tuesday – updating an earlier post that had said the plant would run as normal.JBS Canada said in a Facebook post that shifts had been canceled at its plant in Brooks, Alberta, on Monday and one shift so far had been canceled on Tuesday.A representative in São Paulo said the company’s Brazilian operations were not affected. More

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      in Elections

      ¿Qué es alta política? Vacunar a todos

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      Las vacunaciones en América Latina han sido un desastre, producto de problemas de infraestructura y una dirigencia demasiado ocupada en su subsistencia. ¿Pedimos demasiado si reclamamos hacer lo correcto?Hace unos días escuché conversar a dos mujeres en Barcelona mientras esperaban por su vacuna contra la covid. Una se quejaba del manejo de la pandemia con una amargura ecuménica: no importa si eres catalanista o estás a favor del gobierno central, decía, necesitas dar señales claras. Debe haber un mando único, aseguraba. La amiga asentía y al final soltó la perla: “Así debe ser, pero no puedes derramar vino de un cazo vacío”.Europa aun tienen dificultades para probar que la vacunación puede ser veloz cuando poco más del 4 por ciento de la población continental ha recibido un pinchazo en el brazo. Pensaba en eso —y en las señoras del cazo vacío— cuando revisaba las cifras de vacunación en América Latina. Excluido Chile —donde aproximadamente el 20 por ciento de la población está vacunada y se anuncia inmunidad de rebaño tan temprano como en junio—, el resto de la región no ha inyectado, en promedio, ni al uno por ciento de sus ciudadanos.América Latina no ha sido inmune a la degradación creciente de la política, con dirigencias obsesivamente ocupadas en la próxima elección —o en la perpetuidad— y en peleas menores entre gobiernos y oposiciones mientras pobreza, corrupción, atraso y, ahora, miles de muertes parecen suceder en un universo paralelo. Es ciertamente enervante que la escala de prioridades parezca al revés o, peor, inexistente.Estos son momentos de alta política, y alta política ahora es vacunar pronto a todo el mundo. Los míos, los tuyos, los ajenos. Ricos, pobres. Tener que escribir esto es increíble, porque es evidente, pero vamos: no hay mejor política de Estado que superar la facción y trabajar para todos. Cuando se trata de salud pública en una pandemia, la ideología es una: socializas beneficios.Y, sin embargo, muchos mandatarios y gobiernos parecen más preocupados en ganar las próximas elecciones. El ciclo electoral inició en 2021 con Ecuador y en los últimos meses votaron El Salvador y Bolivia. Este año habrá presidenciales en Perú, Nicaragua, Chile, Honduras, legislativas en México y Argentina y municipales en Paraguay. Toda la región parece en campaña electoral y la pandemia ha resultado una magnífica oportunidad propagandística. Pero las contiendas y las disputas políticas debieran ser secundarias cuando es preciso detener las muertes actuales y evitar la expansión del virus con vacunas. Pronto, sin improvisar y sin opacidad.Es imperdonable que los políticos privilegien sus disputas por encima de las necesidades de las mayorías. Y no es que no deban defender sus intereses sino que la escala de prioridades no admite discusión: la demanda de la facción no puede moralmente anteponerse a la necesidad general. No puede ser votos o muertos.Los problemas son mayores. En toda la región, el déficit de insumos y equipamiento ha sido democráticamente lamentable. Y las imágenes son desastrosas: hospitales desbordados de Perú y Ecuador, falta de información y hasta represión en Nicaragua y Venezuela, un colapso anunciado en Brasil y México es el tercer país con mayor número de muertes del mundo.A los errores de la gestión de la pandemia, se suman décadas de mala gobernanza. Mientras los gobiernos de Corea, Taiwán y Japón implementaron un rastreo minucioso de casos; en muchas ciudades principales de América Latina no hay siquiera padrones digitalizados de la ciudadanía ni bases de datos centralizadas. Unos 34 millones de latinoamericanos no tienen documentos de identificación, lo que significa que ni siquiera figuran en un registro civil. El sistema tiene ineficiencias que preceden a casi todos los gobiernos actuales. Por eso cuando llega una crisis, encuentras enfermeras malpagadas y agotadas atendiendo enfermos envueltas en bolsas de basura pues carecen de equipos. Y observas que algunos gobiernos no se agenciaron suficientes vacunas por incapacidades burocráticas e imprevisión administrativa.De acuerdo, todo esto podría ser achacable al desguace estructural de la salud pública, pero estamos en otro juego cuando episodios de abuso y amiguismo o las agendas políticas de quienes ahora están al mando se interponen entre la vida y la muerte de la población. Si nuestros dirigentes se emplean más en sus guerritas de baja intensidad para acumular poder mientras sus ciudadanos mueren, son miserables.La inversión de prioridades sucede en casi toda la región. Jair Bolsonaro —que cambió cuatro veces de ministro de Salud— entiende la pandemia como un problema personal: entorpeció su deseo de manejar Brasil a placer. Andrés Manuel López Obrador pasa más tiempo empeñado en defender la Cuarta Transformación rumbo a las elecciones legislativas que podrían darle una mayoría absoluta en el Congreso que creando planes de rescate económico a los habitantes de México. En Argentina, el proceso de vacunación está sembrado de dudas: ¿sería tan veloz si el gobierno de Alberto Fernández no tuviera una elección intermedia por ganar? Tampoco en El Salvador, Nicaragua o Venezuela ha habido la integridad de separar el rol funcionarial de la propaganda.En el fondo, la manera en que vacunamos habla de lo que creemos y somos capaces. En Argentina, por ejemplo, una líder opositora sugirió que debiera permitirse a los privados vender dosis y enviar a quien no tiene dinero a la seguridad social o a pedir subsidios. La idea es un absurdo cuando la mayoría de los procesos exitosos de vacunación —y de gestión de la pandemia en las fases críticas— son públicos y centralizados. La evidencia sugiere que una campaña veloz y masiva requiere del Estado a cargo con apoyo de voluntarios de la sociedad civil.El Estado es un elefante —fofo o hambreado— y precisa gimnasia. Por eso es relevante el factor humano para moverlo. Esto es, aun cuando hay infraestructura y enfrentas una crisis de salud pública, la inteligencia de gestión y la capacidad burocrática son capitales. Pero si quienes dirigen lanzan señales equívocas o son cínicos incapaces de hacer alta política, los resultados no pueden ser más que letales. América Latina es ya la región del mundo con más muertos por habitante.Si la opinión pública sabe que las infraestructuras son buenas y sus dirigentes dan el ejemplo, no tendrá una repentina crisis de desconfianza. Las infraestructuras deben soportar; los funcionarios, funcionar.¿Hay sustancia, entonces, o deberemos convencernos de que pedimos vino a una clase política que es un cazo vacío?Diego Fonseca (@DiegoFonsecaDF) es colaborador regular de The New York Times y director del Seminario Iberoamericano de Periodismo Emprendedor en CIDE-México y del Institute for Socratic Dialogue de Barcelona. Voyeur es su último libro. More

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      La oposición brasileña necesita unirse para acabar con Bolsonaro

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storyOpiniónSupported byContinue reading the main storyComentarioLa oposición brasileña necesita unirse para acabar con BolsonaroLas elecciones municipales de Brasil fueron una dura derrota para el presidente, pero una oposición dividida podría favorecerlo.El presidente de Brasil, Jair BolsonaroCredit…Ueslei Marcelino/ReutersEs periodista y narrador.21 de diciembre de 2020BARCELONA, España — El gran derrotado en las elecciones municipales de noviembre en Brasil fue el presidente Jair Bolsonaro. La mayoría de sus candidatos perdió y sus resultados en São Paulo y Río de Janeiro fueron humillantes. Aunque conserva parte del apoyo popular —del 35 al 37 por ciento—, su respaldo electoral se redujo al de cuando era solo un diputado gritón y maleducado al que nadie tomaba en serio.Pero su derrota no significó un triunfo de la izquierda, que recuperó poco espacio y solo gobernará una capital, Belém (Pará). Fue la derecha de antes —de cuando ser “de derecha” no incluía ser antivacunas ni defender la tortura— que salió victoriosa, porque reconquistó votos perdidos y atrajo a electores del centro con candidatos moderados, contrarios al extremismo del presidente.Aunque las elecciones municipales tengan su dinámica propia, con factores locales, muestran tendencias que anticipan un cuadro complejo para las presidenciales de 2022. Si bien Bolsonaro sufrió una clara derrota, no hay una oposición fuerte. El voto en su contra está dividido entre una izquierda aún golpeada y fragmentada —pero con capacidad de movilización— y una derecha sin un proyecto claro y aún atada a polarizaciones del pasado. Si ambos grupos votaran a un mismo candidato en dos años, podrían vencer.Hay dos futuros posibles para Brasil: Bolsonaro podrá ser recordado como una breve anomalía histórica que dejó un desastre (más de 186.000 muertos por el coronavirus, la Amazonía amenazada, la democracia moribunda y una sociedad enfrentada por una política de odio), pero que al final fue superada; o bien como el inicio de una transformación sistémica que terminó por erosionar la democracia y la modernidad en Brasil. Para evitar esto último, los demócratas de todo el arco político deben buscar juntos la salida del infierno, como hicieron los chilenos en los noventa frente al dictador Augusto Pinochet.El golpe parlamentario contra Dilma Rousseff, en 2016, y la posterior persecución y encarcelamiento político de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva son una herida abierta entre izquierda y derecha, pero algún entendimiento será necesario. Sin renunciar a la disputa ideológica, ambos bloques podrían trazar una línea roja contra el fascismo.Para ello, por un lado, la izquierda debería abandonar su guerra de egos, modernizarse y volver a dialogar fuera de su burbuja. Por otro lado, los sectores democráticos de la derecha y la centroderecha deberían alejarse de quienes, en sus filas y en el mal llamado “centrão” (partidos clientelistas cuyo peso en el Congreso les permite negociar cargos y prebendas), prefieren ser socios menores de un presidente autoritario.Hay antecedentes que Brasil podría observar. A finales de los ochenta, la oposición a la dictadura militar en Chile logró unir a partidos de izquierda, centro y derecha comprometidos con la democracia. Esa peculiar alianza derrotó al dictador en el referéndum de 1988 y ganó en 1989 las primeras elecciones presidenciales libres desde el golpe de 1973.Si en Brasil no fuese posible una concertación a la chilena, al menos debería haber un compromiso para enfrentar en relativa alianza a Bolsonaro y apoyar a quien llegue a la segunda vuelta para derrotarlo en 2022.Hay un cambio de tendencia que favorece esa posibilidad. En 2018, el desconocido Wilson Witzel fue electo gobernador de Río de Janeiro con una victoria aplastante gracias al apoyo público de los hijos de Bolsonaro (luego fue apartado del cargo por denuncias de corrupción). En uno de sus actos de campaña, mientras Witzel levantaba el puño, un candidato vestido con una remera de Bolsonaro mostró una placa rota con el nombre de Marielle Franco, concejala de izquierda asesinada a tiros por sicarios de una mafia con vínculos a la familia del presidente. Entonces, la “ola” de la extrema derecha era tan fuerte que ese candidato fue el legislador más votado del estado.Pero esa ola ya no tiene la misma fuerza. Bolsonaro publicó en Twitter una lista de sus apadrinados para estas elecciones municipales. Aunque luego borró el tuit, la derrota era evidente: de los 13 candidatos a alcalde que apoyaba, 11 perdieron.Hay que prestar atención a las dos grandes capitales. En São Paulo, el candidato del presidente, Celso Russomanno, apenas obtuvo el 10,5 por ciento de los votos. En una segunda vuelta que pareció un retorno a la normalidad, un candidato de izquierda, Guilherme Boulos, y un liberal de centroderecha, Bruno Covas, se enfrentaron de forma civilizada, y cuando Covas venció dijo que “es posible hacer política sin odio”.En Río de Janeiro, el candidato que Bolsonaro respaldó, el actual alcalde, Marcelo Crivella (pastor homofóbico y sobrino del dueño de la Iglesia Universal del Reino de Dios), fue humillado en las urnas. Su adversario en la segunda vuelta, Eduardo Paes, recibió el apoyo del electorado de izquierda pese a ser de centroderecha y ganó en todos los barrios.Bruno Covas celebra su victoria en las elecciones municipales de Brasil, en donde ganó la reelección a la alcaldía de São Paulo.Credit…Amanda Perobelli/ReutersEduardo Paes vota durante las elecciones de noviembre, en donde obtuvo la victoria para ser el alcalde de Río de Janeiro.Credit…Sergio Moraes/ReutersCovas, Paes y otros vencedores se diferencian, por su moderación, de sus propios partidos, que en los últimos años se acercaron peligrosamente a la extrema derecha. El éxito de los candidatos moderados parece ser la lección de estas elecciones para la derecha.Antes del balotaje presidencial de 2018, que concluyó con la victoria de Bolsonaro, el diario Estado de S. Paulo afirmó en un editorial que elegir entre Fernando Haddad (del partido de Lula) y Jair Bolsonaro era “muy difícil”. De un lado, estaba Haddad, un político sin antecedentes de corrupción, profesor universitario, con buenas gestiones como alcalde y ministro. Del otro, Bolsonaro, un militar retirado que reivindicaba la dictadura, amenazaba a sus adversarios y hacía campaña con mentiras. Pero dos años después, la elección no parece tan difícil. Los resultados de la gestión de Bolsonaro confirman lo falsa que era esa simetría. Solo en las últimas semanas, el presidente brasileño ha realizado una campaña contra las vacunas en plena pandemia de la COVID-19, en el segundo país del mundo con más muertes.La situación de Brasil no es normal y hace falta responsabilidad histórica.En 2022, en la primera o la segunda vuelta, todos los demócratas deben unirse para impedir la reelección del peor presidente de su historia, aunque eso signifique hacer acuerdos con adversarios de toda la vida. Será imprescindible para que la pesadilla Bolsonaro acabe para siempre.Bruno Bimbi es periodista y narrador. Ha escrito los libros Matrimonio igualitario y El fin del armario. Vivió diez años en Brasil y fue corresponsal para la televisión argentina.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Your Wednesday Briefing

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesThe Latest Vaccine InformationU.S. Deaths Surpass 300,000F.A.Q.AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyYour Wednesday BriefingPoorer nations struggle to access a coronavirus vaccine.Dec. 15, 2020, 10:06 p.m. ETGood morning.We’re covering the gulf between wealthy and poorer nations for access to a coronavirus vaccine, new laws against civil liberties in Hungary and Brazil’s chaotic vaccine plan.[embedded content] Pillay Jagambrun, a Care home worker, received the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine at Croydon University Hospital in south London last week.Credit…Pool photo by Dan CharityRich countries are first in line for new virus vaccinesThe world’s wealthiest countries have laid claim to more than half of the doses of coronavirus vaccines coming on the market through 2021, as many poorer nations struggle to secure enough. If all those doses are fulfilled, the E.U. could inoculate its residents twice, Britain and the United States four times over and Canada six times over, according to our data analysis.In the developing world, some countries may be able to vaccinate, at most, 20 percent of their populations in 2021, with some reaching immunity as late as 2024.In many cases, the U.S. made its financial support for the vaccine’s development conditional on getting priority access. The country is heading toward authorizing another vaccine this week, from Moderna.By the numbers: Britain has claimed 357 million doses in total, with options to buy 152 million more, while the European Union has secured 1.3 billion, with as many as 660 million doses more if it chooses.Credit…The New York TimesHere are the latest updates and maps of the pandemic.In other developments:A second wave has brought a new surge in infections to Sweden, leaving Stockholm’s emergency services overrun and forcing the authorities to recalibrate their approach.Russia has released additional results from a clinical trial of its leading coronavirus vaccine, Sputnik V, showing an efficacy rate of 91.4 percent. AstraZeneca opened talks this month about combining efforts.President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa announced new restrictions as the country entered a second coronavirus wave, with infections expected to rise over the festive season.The European Medicines Agency said in a statement that it would move forward a meeting to decide whether to approve the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to Dec. 21 from Dec. 29.The new amendment would also effectively bar gay couples from adopting children in Hungary by defining a family as including a man as the father and a woman as the mother.Credit…Attila Kisbenedek/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesNew laws in Hungary further erode civil libertiesThe Hungarian Parliament on Tuesday passed sweeping measures that curtailed the rights of gay citizens, relaxed oversight of the spending of public funds and made it more difficult for opposition parties to challenge Prime Minister Viktor Orban in future elections.The government justified its actions in a written explanation by saying that the Constitution “is a living framework which expresses the will of the nation, the manner in which we want to live.” Increasingly, “the will of the nation” is becoming indistinguishable from Mr. Orban’s own.Analysis: The new laws are cause for “grave concern,” said Agnes Kovacs, a legal expert. Over more than a decade in power, Mr. Orban has torn at the fabric of democratic institutions in pursuit of what he calls an “illiberal” state.Details: The legislation includes a constitutional amendment that would effectively bar gay couples from adopting children in Hungary by defining a family as including a man as the father and a woman as the mother. The amendment could also make it harder for single parents to adopt.Kenyan soldiers at their base in Tabda, inside Somalia, near the border with Kenya. As part of the African Union peacekeeping forces in Somalia, Kenya has more than 3,600 troops stationed in the country.Credit…Ben Curtis/Associated PressSomalia cuts diplomatic ties with KenyaSomalia severed diplomatic ties with Kenya on Tuesday, accusing the neighboring East African nation of meddling in its internal political affairs. The move came weeks before a crucial general election.“The federal government of Somalia reached this decision as an answer to the political violations and the Kenyan government’s continuous blatant interference recently in our country’s sovereignty,” said Osman Dubbe, the minister of information.Context: The move injects an additional note of instability into an already shaky region, after the U.S. announced plans to withdraw troops from Somalia — which some fear will motivate the Shabab militant group to escalate its offensive across Somalia and the Horn of Africa.If you have 5 minutes, this is worth itBrazil’s chaotic vaccine planCredit…Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesWith its top-notch immunization program and strong pharmaceutical industry, Brazil should be well-placed to curtail infections domestically. But political infighting, haphazard planning and a rising anti-vaccine movement have left the nation without a clear vaccination plan, our reporters found. Above, a vaccine trial in São Paulo this month.Brazilians now have no sense of when a vaccine will come. The coronavirus has brought the public health system to its knees and has crushed the economy. “They’re playing with lives,” one epidemiologist said. “It’s borderline criminal.”Here’s what else is happeningBig Tech: In a bid for tougher oversight of the technology industry, the authorities in the European Union and Britain introduced regulations to pressure the world’s biggest tech companies to take down harmful content and open themselves up to more competition.Uighurs: Prosecutors at the International Criminal Court will not investigate allegations that China committed genocide and crimes against humanity over the mass detention of ethnic Uighurs in the Xinjiang region, saying China is not a party to the court.The Coronavirus Outbreak More