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      Gov. Murphy Tones Down Liberal Message in Bid for Suburban Voters

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      In the first budget address of his second term, Gov. Philip Murphy responded to New Jersey voters’ discontent at a time of surging gas costs and high taxes.Gas prices are soaring. The war in Ukraine has rattled the stock market. And, months ahead of midterm elections, voters in key suburban swing districts in New Jersey are restive, contributing to increased dissatisfaction with the state’s Democratic leader, Gov. Philip D. Murphy.For much of his first term, Mr. Murphy governed as a steadfast liberal eager to talk about his successful efforts to protect abortion rights, legalize marijuana and enact stricter gun control laws.But on Tuesday, in his first budget address since winning re-election by just three percentage points in a state where Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans, Mr. Murphy offered a radically tempered message.The sweeping liberal rhetoric that defined his first budget address in 2018 was replaced by a recalibrated definition of progress and a promise to make New Jersey — where the cost of living is among the highest in the nation — a more affordable place to live.Months after remnants of Hurricane Ida crippled large parts of the state, killing at least 25 people, he did not utter the phrase “climate change.” There were no overt references to criminal justice, racial equity or immigrant rights. He cited a signature first-term win — lifting the minimum wage to $15 — just once, and instead chose to talk about tax cuts and rebates and a one-year “fee holiday” that would allow residents to visit state parks and renew driver’s licenses for free.“If you compare the really sharp racial justice messaging from last year to this year, there is a really big disconnect,” said Sara Cullinane, director of Make the Road New Jersey, a left-leaning coalition focused on immigrant and worker rights.“It seems that there’s a pivot,” she added.Instead of the unabashedly left-leaning budget message that set the tone for his first term, there were 24 mentions of the words “affordable” or “affordability.”“The Democratic Party is looking down at the 2022 midterms coming and knowing that its message needs to be revamped,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University.“Many voters, probably most voters, are disenchanted.”Mr. Murphy is scheduled to move from vice chairman to chairman of the National Governors Association in July and to take over leadership of the Democratic Governors Association for the second time next year. Democrats must defend governorships in the key battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, races seen as must-wins to stave off Republican restrictions on voting rights.The governor has made it clear that he heard the message voters sent in November in Virginia and New Jersey, where Republican turnout surged and Democrats lost seven seats in the Legislature, including the Senate president’s.A Guide to the 2022 Midterm ElectionsMidterms Begin: The Texas primaries officially opened the 2022 election season. See the full primary calendar.In the Senate: Democrats have a razor-thin margin that could be upended with a single loss. Here are the four incumbents most at risk.In the House: Republicans and Democrats are seeking to gain an edge through redistricting and gerrymandering, though this year’s map is poised to be surprisingly fairGovernors’ Races: Georgia’s contest will be at the center of the political universe, but there are several important races across the country.Key Issues: Inflation, the pandemic, abortion and voting rights are expected to be among this election cycle’s defining topics.“Quite frankly,” Professor Koning said, “they’re not interested in hearing about climate change and racial justice.”Democrats worry that the same factors that contributed to Mr. Murphy’s re-election by smaller-than-expected margins — pandemic fatigue, rising costs and President Biden’s waning popularity — could also spell trouble during November’s midterm congressional elections.Just before Mr. Murphy delivered Tuesday’s address, the Eagleton Center released a poll showing that the number of voters with a favorable impression of the governor had dropped to 33 percent, down from 50 percent in November. Of the people surveyed, more than 40 percent gave him failing grades in connection with New Jersey’s high property taxes and cost of living.“Governor Murphy has never wavered in his vision to make New Jersey stronger and fairer for everyone who calls our state home,” Mr. Murphy’s spokeswoman, Alyana Alfaro Post, said.“This year’s budget proposal builds on that progress,” she added, “and continues opening doors of opportunity for all New Jerseyans.”During his first term, Mr. Murphy accomplished many of his most ambitious policy goals: adding a tax on income over $1 million; legalizing adult-use marijuana; establishing paid sick leave for workers; and giving undocumented immigrants access to driver’s licenses.On Tuesday, he talked about the millionaires’ tax but did not mention the other victories, referring only to the “many steps we took together over the past four years,” before focusing on property taxes.“This budget attacks two of New Jersey’s most difficult and intractable problems: property taxes and affordable housing,” Mr. Murphy told a joint session of the Legislature, in a marked shift from comments he made in 2019 minimizing concerns over the state’s high taxes.“If you’re a one-issue voter and tax rate is your issue, either a family or a business — if that’s the only basis upon which you’re going to make a decision,” Mr. Murphy said three years ago, “we’re probably not your state.”This year’s budget proposal — a record-high $48.9 billion spending plan — did not appear to veer from priorities Mr. Murphy set during his first term and would continue to fund programs important to Mr. Murphy’s progressive allies.The plan, which the Legislature must approve by July, sets aside more money for education, mental health programs, health care for children of undocumented immigrants, addiction treatment and lower-cost housing. For the second year, Mr. Murphy has proposed making a full payment to the state’s underfunded public-employee pension system.Just as he did in his first budget address, Mr. Murphy quoted the Irish playwright Oscar Wilde’s definition of a cynic — someone who knows “the price of everything and the value of nothing.” But that is where the parallels end.Gone was the fiery rhetoric from 2018, when he talked about the state’s high poverty rate, income inequality and the importance of embracing “the immediacy of the problems before us.”There was no renewed mention this week of initiatives to narrow the state’s racial income gap using tools like so-called baby bonds, an ultimately unsuccessful budget proposal he made in 2020 to give most newborns $1,000, payable with interest when they turned 18.Instead, a plan to set aside money to build 3,300 units of lower-cost housing was depicted as a win for the working class, not the working poor.“Let’s not lose sight of who actually benefits when we build more affordable housing,” Mr. Murphy said of units available to people with low to moderate incomes. “It’s the educator or first responder who can finally live within the community they serve. It’s also the server at the local diner, the cashier at the grocery store.”Julia Sass Rubin, a professor at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, said the speech represented a change in messaging, but not a “major retraction” of Mr. Murphy’s left-leaning priorities.“If you keep walking the walk, maybe they think they can adjust the talk a little bit, without substantively changing the direction,” Professor Rubin said.“It’s a way of trying to shore up what could be a vulnerability — both for the midterm elections and Democrats more broadly,” she added.Mr. Murphy emphasized “affordability” in his speech and played down progressive themes.Michelle Gustafson for The New York TimesJack Ciattarelli, Mr. Murphy’s Republican challenger who came close to unseating the governor, said the budget address showed Mr. Murphy was “definitely feeling the pressure from the closeness of the race and the themes that we hit on repeatedly, which up until this point he’s been tone-deaf on.”But the contents of the plan, he said, were the “same old, same old.”“There’s never been a better opportunity to completely reform the way we do property taxes,” said Mr. Ciattarelli, who plans to run for governor again in four years.Officials with left-leaning advocacy groups said that they found things to like in the budget draft, as well as missed opportunities.Ms. Cullinane, of Make the Road, praised the roughly $100 million the governor set aside for undocumented immigrants and working families who have been ineligible for federal pandemic-related aid. Andrea McChristian, law and policy director for the New Jersey Institute for Social Justice, applauded Mr. Murphy’s efforts to expand college access and to fund a pilot program designed to keep juveniles out of prison. But she questioned the absence of any discussion about closing juvenile lockups, making reparation payments to Black residents harmed by slavery or a renewed push to implement baby bonds.“That’s definitely a missed moment,” Ms. McChristian said.The missing emphasis on social justice is particularly worrisome in a year when New Jersey is flush with cash from sales tax collections, revenue generated by the robust housing and stock markets and federal stimulus funds, Ms. McChristian said.“This is the moment to be bold,” she said, adding, “We have huge racial disparities here.”Doug O’Malley, director of Environment New Jersey, called it a “status quo” budget that continues to provide vital support for offshore wind energy but fails to take other meaningful steps toward addressing the climate crisis or establishing a guaranteed source of funding for public transit.“New Jersey should be investing in climate change solutions,” Mr. O’Malley said, “not fighting this fight with one hand behind its back.” More

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      A State Budget With an Unexpected Twist: No Red Ink

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      Gov. Kathy Hochul announced a $216.3 billion spending plan as officials projected balanced state budgets through 2027.Good morning. We’ll look at Gov. Kathy Hochul’s state budget, which came with an unexpected twist. We’ll also look at who is not running for governor, and who is riding the subways.Mary Altaffer/Associated PressThe surprise about Gov. Kathy Hochul’s $216.3 billion budget proposal was what was not in it: a mention of big shortfalls, long a standard phrase in municipal budgets.My colleagues Grace Ashford and Luis Ferré-Sadurní write that Hochul is riding a windfall of federal funding and a jump in tax revenues, both of which fueled projections of balanced state budgets for the next five years.Her plans for spending the money are far-reaching. She called for significant one-time infusions of cash, including $2 billion in pandemic recovery initiatives and $2.2 billion in property tax relief for homeowners. She also laid out plans for increased spending on education, health care and infrastructure, including $32.8 billion for highways, bridges and other transit projects over five years.Hochul committed to placing 15 percent of the state’s operating expenses into reserves — a record number, but less than the 17 percent recommended by many independent budget analysts.[Surprise in $216 Billion Budget Plan: New York Is Awash in Money]Robert Mujica, the governor’s budget director, said no tax increases were contemplated. He said that some $7 billion in surpluses would finance one-time costs, not recurring expenses that could become unsustainable in the long run.When everything was added up, Hochul’s budget proposal totaled $4.3 billion more than the spending plan that was approved last year. She will have to negotiate with the State Legislature by April 1, when the state’s 2023 fiscal year begins. That is almost three months before the state’s Democratic primary, so the budget could help Hochul as she runs for a full term. She has already raised nearly $21.6 million, her campaign said on Tuesday, a record for a statewide race in New York.Some fiscal experts immediately criticized Hochul for not doing more to address the state’s population losses, which have led to concerns that the state’s tax base will shrink. “It’s a missed opportunity to provide a clear signal that New York is serious about making its tax rates more competitive relative to states that people are migrating toward,” said Peter Warren, the research director at the Empire Center, a conservative-leaning think tank.The budget also cleared the way for an additional three casinos in New York State, probably downstate. That would accelerate the current casino plan by a year and bring in significant revenue sooner.Still, much of the revenue not promised by the federal government is projected to come from high-income earners. That again raises the question of whether they will remain in New York and what the future of remote work will be. Closely tied to those questions is another: How rapidly will Manhattan rebound?New York’s population fell by more than 300,000 in the past year, according to census records — the most of any state — and New York City’s 9.4 percent unemployment rate is more than double the national average. Reversing the population drain and bringing down unemployment could prove critical to the future of the city and the state — and its governor.WeatherExpect a mostly cloudy day with temperatures in the mid-40s and gusty winds, so it will feel chillier. An approaching cold front will push temps into the mid-30s and usher in rain overnight.alternate-side parkingIn effect until Jan. 31. (Lunar New Year’s Eve).De Blasio says he will not run for governor after allHolly Pickett for The New York TimesAfter months of teasing, polling and preparing — as my colleague Nicholas Fandos put it on Twitter — former Mayor Bill de Blasio said he would not take the widely expected next step, which would have been to run for governor of New York.So what is next? “I am going to devote every fiber of my being to fighting inequality in the state of New York,” he said, adding that he would have more to say about his future in the coming days.De Blasio made the announcement in a 90-second video posted on Twitter. The video was shot on the street outside his house in Brooklyn. “Nine years ago, this is where we announced my campaign for mayor of New York City,” he said, before mentioning some of his successes in City Hall, including establishing universal pre-K, building affordable apartments and “making the city greener and cleaner for the future.”He leavened that by mentioning what he called “my fair share of mistakes.”“I was not good with groundhogs at all,” he said. (He dropped Charles G. Hogg, the female groundhog known as Chuck, at a 2014 Groundhog Day celebration — unless Chuck wriggled out of de Blasio’s arms. Chuck died a week later.)De Blasio also said: “Probably shouldn’t have gone to the gym.” (He was driven to the Prospect Park Y.M.C.A. in Brooklyn from Gracie Mansion in Manhattan regularly, even as the coronavirus pandemic closed in.)De Blasio’s video was released shortly after a Siena College poll showed him running far behind Hochul. He had a 12 percent share of Democratic voters. Hochul’s share was almost four times as large, at 46 percent. Jumaane Williams, the New York City public advocate, had 11 percent and Representative Thomas Suozzi 6 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.In the race for campaign contributions, Hochul is also leading the field. She raised a record-breaking $21.6 million. She submitted filings showing that she took in roughly $140,000 a day, on average, from her swearing-in last August until last week.The latest New York newsThe New York State attorney general accused Donald J. Trump’s family business of engaging in a pattern of fraud.Michelle Gotthelf, the editor in chief of The New York Post’s website until she was dismissed last week, said in a discrimination lawsuit that she had endured “several years of sex-based harassment” during more than 20 years at The Post.Mayor Eric Adams noted that the numbers of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in New York City, while still extremely high, have started to drop.Another sign of the economic divide: Who’s riding the subwayThe pandemic brought on “a virtual abandonment” of the subway system in 2020. Now the city’s uneven recovery is reflected in the uneven way riders have returned, a sign that the deep economic divide exposed by the pandemic is continuing. Stations in lower-income areas in Brooklyn, Queens and Upper Manhattan, where residents are less likely to be able to work from home and typically depend more on public transit, have rebounded faster than stations in office-heavy sections of Manhattan.A Guide to the New York Governor’s RaceCard 1 of 5A crowded field. More

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      Kathy Hochul Gives Her First State of the State Speech

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      Gov. Kathy Hochul pledged $10 billion to boost the state’s decimated health care work force, proposed a new transit line, and directed funds to combat gun violence.In her first State of the State address, Gov. Kathy Hochul announced a $10 billion pledge to fortify New York’s health care work force and outlined her economic recovery plan.Cindy Schultz for The New York TimesALBANY, N.Y. — In her first State of the State address, Gov. Kathy Hochul on Wednesday outlined her vision for shepherding New York State through its recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, while vowing to open a new chapter of ethical, more transparent government.In her most ambitious proposal, Ms. Hochul, the state’s first female governor, called for spending $10 billion to bolster the state’s health care work force, which has been devastated by the pandemic. She also pushed initiatives to support small businesses and to lure new investments, vowing to position New York as the most “business-friendly and worker-friendly state in the nation.”The annual address, typically as much a declaration of politics as policy, provided Ms. Hochul her most expansive opportunity yet to define her agenda. She faces a contested Democratic primary in June, her first election since she unexpectedly ascended to the state’s highest job after former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo abruptly resigned in August amid allegations of sexual misconduct.In the speech, Ms. Hochul, a moderate from outside Buffalo, sought to balance competing political challenges: She wants to court more liberal urban voters in the party’s primary, but not so much that she becomes vulnerable to Republicans hoping to make electoral gains in November’s general election.She offered some left-leaning measures like a “jails-to-jobs” program, and others aimed at the political center, including tax cuts for middle-class New Yorkers and several initiatives meant to curb a spike in gun violence, which is likely to be a contentious election-year issue.“My fellow New Yorkers, this agenda is for you,” Ms. Hochul said at the State Capitol. “Every single initiative is filtered through the lens of how it’ll help you and your families, because I know you’re exhausted. I know you want this pandemic to be over. I know you’re worried about the economy, inflation, your kids, their education and what the future holds.”The state faces immense challenges: The unemployment rate in New York City is 9.4 percent, more than double the national average. In the past year, New York’s population declined by more than 300,000 people — more than any other state in the country. The economic struggles underscore the state’s gravest loss: 60,000 lives since the pandemic began.Ms. Hochul outlined a lengthy list of proposals intended to appeal to a constellation of constituencies, including business leaders, homeowners and influential unions representing teachers and construction workers, all of whom could play a crucial role in her campaign.Wearing suffragist white, Ms. Hochul stressed that she would be different from Mr. Cuomo, declaring that she would pursue a more collaborative relationship with Democrats who control the Legislature and with Eric Adams, New York City’s new mayor. She positioned herself as a champion of good government, proposing to overhaul the state ethics commission and to institute term limits on governors. The latter measure, which would curb her own power, was seen as a not-so-subtle rebuke of the outsize influence Mr. Cuomo amassed over more than a decade in office.“For government to work, those of us in power cannot continue to cling to it,” Ms. Hochul said, speaking before a sparse crowd of about 50 people.The package of ethics and government reforms were meant to hold accountable elected officials in a State Capitol with a long history of graft and corruption.One of her boldest proposals called for abolishing the embattled ethics commission, the Joint Commission on Public Ethics, whose members are appointed by the governor and state lawmakers. Instead, under Ms. Hochul’s plan, a rotating, five-member panel of law school deans or their designees would oversee ethics enforcement.The address, typically a lively affair that attracts crowds of activists and lobbyists to the Capitol, was tinged with decidedly 2022 touches: masks, testing requirements and attendance limits that meant many lawmakers watched remotely. The Assembly speaker, Carl E. Heastie, was absent, because of Covid-19 concerns. Outside the Capitol, a throng of protesters waving American flags crowded the lawn and railed against vaccine mandates.Keenly aware of potential attacks from Republicans, Ms. Hochul focused part of her remarks on new efforts to combat a surge in gun violence, including financing for more police officers and prosecutors, investments in neighborhoods where violent crime is common and money earmarked for tracing the origin of illegal guns.“Time and time again, New Yorkers tell me that they don’t feel safe,” Ms. Hochul said during the half-hour speech. “They don’t like what they see on streets and things feel different now, and not always for the better.”Members of her party’s ascendant left wing were pleased to hear the governor express support for the Clean Slate Act, which is meant to seal certain crimes on the records of formerly incarcerated people to help them find jobs and housing.But some of her proposals were not as far-reaching as some left-leaning Democrats had hoped. Ms. Hochul’s plan to expand child care would increase access for 100,000 families, well short of the more expansive Universal Childcare Act recently introduced in the Legislature. She made no reference to longstanding efforts to advance universal health care, or to institute a carbon tax.Ms. Hochul offered a five-year plan to build 100,000 units of affordable housing and, with the state’s moratorium on evictions set to expire this month, she proposed a program that would provide free legal assistance to poor renters facing eviction. But she was silent on demands to enshrine in state law a requirement limiting the ability of landlords to evict tenants and raise rents. The housing plan was applauded by the state’s influential real estate lobby, but criticized by a group of democratic socialist legislators for not doing enough to address the affordability crisis. A leading coalition of tenant activists, Housing Justice for All, called Ms. Hochul “Cuomo 2.0” in a statement.Most notably, Ms. Hochul sidestepped an explosive ideological wedge issue that is bound to come up this year: potentially amending the bail reform legislation passed in 2019. Embracing such a move could put her at odds with many lawmakers in her party. The legislation, which was meant to address inequities in the criminal justice system by abolishing cash bail for most crimes, has since been attacked by Republicans, who argue that the changes released violent criminals and cited the reforms in successful campaigns against Democrats last November.Republicans criticized Ms. Hochul’s plans, saying they would do little to address rising inflation or to lower taxes.“Our state’s oppressive tax burden drives businesses and families away in record numbers because, year after year, New Yorkers have been forced to pick up the tab for the out-of-control spending habits of liberal politicians,” said Will Barclay, the Assembly’s Republican leader.A Guide to the New York Governor’s RaceCard 1 of 6A crowded field. More

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      No, California Isn’t Doomed

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      California has been struggling. It has stumbled through the Covid-19 pandemic and recession, afflicted by wildfires, an epidemic of homelessness and stratospheric housing prices. Last year it experienced its first population decline in records going back to 1900. Its latest mess was a costly and unsuccessful campaign to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom.The state’s problems are real. Nevertheless, there are positive signs. The first step toward fixing problems is recognizing them, and on that score, Californians have grown increasingly aware of what’s wrong. California is also blessed with abundant resources that enable it to fix problems that would be daunting for less endowed states.Housing is a good example. Prices are crazy: On Sept. 16, the California Association of Realtors announced that the median sale price in the state in August was $827,940, up 17 percent from a year earlier. Only 23 percent of California households could afford to buy a median-priced home in the second quarter, down from one-third a year earlier, the association announced in August.To make ends meet, many Californians scrimp and save and commute long distances from exurbs; others give up and move to cheaper states. Employers struggle to lure out-of-state recruits. Homeowners can swap one high-priced house for another, but renters can’t buy starter homes because they have no housing equity to use for a down payment. And California’s epidemic of homelessness can be traced in part to a lack of affordable housing.The upside is that almost everyone in California understands that building more housing is essential. More homes are being built in Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin combined than in the entire state of California, says Dan Dunmoyer, president and chief executive of the California Building Industry Association.One of Newsom’s first acts after surviving the recall attempt was to sign three bills to increase housing supply. Senate Bill No. 8 extends a 2019 law that accelerates approval of housing projects. Senate Bill No. 9 allows homeowners to build up to three additional housing units on their land. And Senate Bill No. 10 allows environmental review to be sped up for multiunit projects near transit hubs or in urban developments. Those are the latest of dozens of housing bills signed by Newsom and his predecessor, Jerry Brown.The California Environmental Quality Act, signed into law in 1970 by Ronald Reagan, who was then the governor, is valuable on the whole but enables people to use environmental pretexts to resist housing developments in their neighborhoods that they could not as easily oppose otherwise. There’s widespread agreement that this needs to change.Progress, though, is halting. The pace of issuance of permits for housing construction in California is slower now than in 1975, according to data compiled by the state’s Department of Finance and the U.S. Census Bureau. Environmentalists fight efforts to circumscribe the environmental quality act, worrying that legitimate environmental concerns about new projects will be neglected. And local elected officials continue to push back against efforts to increase density, which they perceive as reducing the value of existing homes. In Palo Alto, the headquarters of Hewlett-Packard and Tesla, Mayor Tom DuBois expressed opposition to Senate Bill No. 10, writing that “such legislation echoes more of Russia than of California.”Up against such forces, Dunmoyer, the president of the building industry association, told me that he’s impressed by the “courage” shown by Newsom and the California State Legislature in enacting senate bills 8, 9 and 10. But, he added, “This is a marathon, and we’re still in the first quarter of the marathon race.”Other problems in California should be fixable with effort and good will. As I wrote in my Sept. 8 newsletter, the state’s water shortages could be alleviated by diverting a little water from agriculture to other purposes. Farms account for only 0.8 percent of the state’s gross domestic product but more than 80 percent of the water used by people (that is, not counting water that stays in streams, deltas and so on).Homelessness is caused partly by a lack of housing, but also by inadequate treatment of people experiencing mental illness and drug addiction. Many conservatives argue that the state has focused too much on low-income housing as the solution to homelessness. “Focus on treatment first rather than housing first,” says Wayne Winegarden, senior fellow in business and economics at the right-of-center Pacific Research Institute for Public Policy. “Otherwise all we’re doing is taking the problem from the street to the hotel room.”Chris Hoene, executive director of the left-of-center California Budget and Policy Center, disagrees with Winegarden, and calls for more spending on Homekey, the state’s program for housing the homeless. Social services should be “wrapped around,” or integrated with, a home, Hoene says. It’s unfortunate, he says, that “people on different sides of strategies pit the potential solutions against each other.”One advantage that California has in dealing with these and other challenges — fixing K-12 education, lowering the tax burden on families and businesses and so on — is that the state’s finances have improved. The state raised taxes and trimmed spending to brace for the Covid-19 recession, but tax revenues came in unexpectedly high because higher-income workers kept working and the financial markets did well, generating taxable capital gains. The $100 billion California Comeback Plan, which Newsom signed in July, is a Christmas tree of Democratic priorities, including stimulus checks for two out of every three Californians, renter assistance, housing for the homeless, tax relief and grants to small businesses, universal pre-K, college savings accounts for low-income students and investments in infrastructure and wildfire resilience.I bounced this optimistic line of thought off Joel Kotkin, a professor at Chapman University in Orange, Calif., who is an expert on cities. He was more pessimistic. “The way our economy is structured, there’s an incredible amount of wealth being minted for a small number of people,” he said. “We have the worst overcrowding. The schools are terrible and they’re going to get worse.” He added, “Used to be a young, ambitious person went to California. I don’t think that’s happening anymore.”It’s hard to argue with a veteran observer of California like Kotkin, who began writing about Silicon Valley in 1975. On the other hand, the bearishness can be overdone. Matthew A. Winkler, editor in chief emeritus of Bloomberg News, observed earlier this year that people love to declare California “doomed.” It ain’t.The readers writeHow you describe a bill depends upon what you are talking about. If you are concerned about too much fiscal stimulus, then taking note of the tax increases and spending cuts makes sense. If you are concerned with the size of government, taking note of spending cuts makes sense, but it does not make sense to reduce the size of the bill by the amount of the tax increases. Same way with a Republican tax cut. If they cut taxes by $1.5 trillion and fully offset it with $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, that is a $1.5 trillion tax cut and that is how it should be described. Only offsetting tax increases should be taken into account.Paul PecorinoTuscaloosa, Ala.The writer is a professor of economics at the University of Alabama.Quote of the day“According to Wittgenstein’s ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler. The less you trust the ruler’s reliability, the more information you are getting about the ruler and the less about the table.”— Nassim Nicholas Taleb, “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets” (2004)Have feedback? Send a note to coy-newsletter@nytimes.com. More

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      German Election: Who Is the Green Party's Annalena Baerbock?

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      Annalena Baerbock, the 40-year-old candidate for the Green Party, is likely to have a say in Germany’s next government, no matter who wins this month’s election.BOCHUM, Germany — The woman who wants to replace Chancellor Angela Merkel strode onto the stage in sneakers and a leather jacket, behind her the steel skeleton of a disused coal mining tower, before her a sea of expectant faces. The warm-up act, a guy with an Elvis quiff draped in a rainbow flag, sang “Imagine.”Annalena Baerbock, the Green Party candidate for chancellor, is asking Germans to do just that. To imagine a country powered entirely by renewable energy. To imagine a relatively unknown and untested 40-year-old as their next chancellor. To imagine her party, which has never before run Germany, leading the government after next month’s election.“This election is not just about what happens in the next four years, it’s about our future,” Ms. Baerbock told the crowd, taking her case to a traditional coal region that closed its last mine three years ago.“We need change to preserve what we love and cherish,” she said in this not necessarily hostile, but skeptical, territory. “Change requires courage, and change is on the ballot on Sept. 26.”Just how much change Germans really want after 16 years of Ms. Merkel remains to be seen. The chancellor made herself indispensable by navigating innumerable crises — financial, migrant, populist and pandemic — and solidifying Germany’s leadership on the continent. Other candidates are competing to see who can be most like her.Ms. Baerbock, by contrast, aims to shake up the status quo. She is challenging Germans to deal with the crises that Ms. Merkel has left largely unattended: decarbonizing the powerful automobile sector; weaning the country off coal; rethinking trade relationships with strategic competitors like China and Russia.It is not always an easy sell. In an unusually close race, there is still an outside chance that the Greens will catch up with Germany’s two incumbent parties. But even if they do not, there is almost no combination of parties imaginable in the next coalition government that does not include them. That makes Ms. Baerbock, her ideas and her party of central importance to Germany’s future. But Germans are still getting to know her.“This election is not just about what happens in the next four years, it’s about our future,” Ms. Baerbock said during her election tour.Laetitia Vancon for The New York TimesA crowd gathered to listen to Ms. Baerbock in Duisburg, in western Germany.Laetitia Vancon for The New York TimesA competitive trampolinist in her youth who became a lawmaker at 32 and has two young daughters, Ms. Baerbock bolted onto Germany’s national political scene only three years ago when she was elected one of the Greens’ two leaders. “Annalena Who?” one newspaper asked at the time.After being nominated in April as the Greens’ first-ever chancellor candidate, Ms. Baerbock briefly surged past her rivals in Germany’s long-dominant parties: Armin Laschet, the leader of the Christian Democrats, and Olaf Scholz of the center-left Social Democrats, who now leads the race.But she fell behind after stumbling repeatedly. Rivals accused Ms. Baerbock of plagiarism after revelations that she had failed to attribute certain passages in a recently published book. Imprecise labeling of some of her memberships led to headlines about her padding her résumé.More recently, she and her party failed to seize on the deadly floods that killed more than 180 people in western Germany to energize her campaign, even as the catastrophe catapulted climate change — the Greens’ flagship issue — to the top of the political agenda.Hoping to reset her campaign, Ms. Baerbock, traveling in a bright green double-decker bus covered in solar panels, is taking her pitch to German voters in 45 cities and towns across the country.Ms. Baerbock in the campaign bus with her social media and logistics team.Laetitia Vancon for The New York TimesIt was no coincidence that her first stop was the industrial heartland of Germany, in the western state of North-Rhine Westphalia, which was badly hit by floods this summer and is run by Mr. Laschet, who has been criticized for mismanaging the disaster.“Climate change isn’t something that’s happening far away in other countries, climate change is with us here and now,” Ms. Baerbock told a crowd of a few hundred students, workers and young parents with their children in Bochum.“Rich people will always be able to buy their way out, but most people can’t,” she said. “That’s why climate change and social justice are two sides of the same coin for me.”Leaving the stage with her microphone, Ms. Baerbock then mingled with the audience and took questions on any range of topics — managing schools during the pandemic, cybersecurity — and apologized for her early missteps.“Yes, we’ve made mistakes, and I’m annoyed at myself,” she said. “But I know where I want to go.”Germany’s two traditional mainstream parties have seen their support shrink in recent years, while the Green Party has more than doubled its own.Laetitia Vancon for The New York TimesIf there is one thing that sets Ms. Baerbock apart from her rivals, it is this relative openness and youthful confidence combined with a bold vision. She is the next generation of a Green Party that has come a long way since its founding as a radical “anti-party party” four decades ago.In those early days, opposition, not governing, was the aim.For Ms. Baerbock, “governing is radical.”Her party’s evolution from a fringe protest movement to a serious contender to power in many ways reflects her own biography.Born in 1980, she is as old as her party. When she was a toddler, her parents took her to anti-NATO protests. By the time she joined the Greens as a student in 2005, the party had completed its first stint in government as the junior partner of the Social Democrats. By now, many voters have come to see the Greens as a party that has matured while remaining true to its principles. It is pro-environment, pro-Europe and unapologetically pro-immigration. Ms. Baerbock joined the Greens as a student in 2005.Laetitia Vancon for The New York TimesMs. Baerbock proposes spending 50 billion euros, about $59 billion, in green investments each year for a decade to bankroll Germany’s transformation to a carbon-neutral economy — and paying for it by scrapping the country’s strict balanced budget rule.She would raise taxes on top earners and put tariffs on imports that are not carbon neutral. She envisions solar panels on every rooftop, a world-class electric car industry, a higher minimum wage and climate subsidies for those with low incomes. She wants to team up with the United States to get tough on China and Russia.She is also committed to Germany’s growing diversity — the only candidate who has spoken of the country’s moral responsibility to take in some Afghan refugees, beyond those who helped Western troops. Ms. Baerbock’s ambitions to break taboos at home and abroad — and her rise as a serious challenger of the status quo — is catching voters’ attention as the election nears.It has also made her a target of online disinformation campaigns from the far right and others. A fake nude picture of her has circulated with the caption, “I needed the money.” Fake quotes have her saying she wants to ban all pets to minimize carbon emissions.Ms. Baerbock’s enemies in the mainstream conservative media have not held back either, exploiting every stumble she has made.Many of those who heard her speak in Bochum recently said they were impressed by her confident delivery (she spoke without notes) and willingness to engage with voters in front of rolling cameras.A supporter surprised Ms. Baerbock by offering her a heart-shaped balloon in Hildesheim, in northern Germany.Laetitia Vancon for The New York Times“She focused on issues and not emotions,” said Katharina Münch, a retired teacher. “She seems really solid.” Others were concerned about her young age and lack of experience.“What has she done to run for chancellor?” said Frank Neuer, 29, a sales clerk who had stopped by on his way to work. “I mean, it’s like me running for chancellor.”Political observers say the attacks against Ms. Baerbock have been disproportionate and revealing of a deeper phenomenon. Despite having a female chancellor for almost two decades, women still face tougher scrutiny and sometimes outright sexism in German politics.“My candidacy polarizes in a way that wasn’t imaginable for many women of my age,” Ms. Baerbock said, sitting in a bright wood-paneled cabin on the top level of her campaign bus between stops.“In some ways, what I’ve experienced is similar to what happened in the U.S. when Hillary Clinton ran,” she added. “I stand for renewal, the others stand for the status quo, and of course, those who have an interest in the status quo see my candidacy as a declaration of war.”Bochum was among the stops on Ms. Baerbock’s campaign swing.Laetitia Vancon for The New York TimesWhen Ms. Merkel first ran for office in 2005, at 51, she was routinely described as Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s “girl” and received not just endless commentary on her haircut, but relentless questions about her competence and readiness for office. Even allies in her own party dismissed her as an interim leader at the time.Ms. Baerbock’s answer to such challenges is not to hide her youth or motherhood, but rather to lean into them.“It’s up to me as a mother, up to us as a society, up to us adults to be prepared for the questions of our children: Did you act?” she said. “Did we do everything to secure the climate and with it the freedom of our children?”Ms. Baerbock talking with a group of young women at the end of a campaign day in Duisburg.Laetitia Vancon for The New York TimesChristopher F. Schuetze More

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      Senate Begins Budget Political Theater With $3.5 Trillion at Stake

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      Once again, the Senate will begin a marathon “vote-a-rama,” dealing with dozens of nonbinding amendments before the one vote that counts, passage of a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint.WASHINGTON — Some senators have tried to ban the process. Others simply say it’s the worst part of their jobs.Even Senator Robert C. Byrd, a West Virginia Democrat who created and fortified some of the chamber’s most complex rules before his death, warned the so-called vote-a-rama process could “send some old men to their deaths.”Still on Tuesday, as the Senate turned to a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint that begins the Democrats’ push to expand the social safety net, the tradition of considering hours upon hours of nonbinding budget amendments will once again get underway — with senators forcing politically sensitive votes on their rivals as campaign operatives compile a record for possible attack ads.Only one vote really matters: If all 50 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents give final approval to the blueprint, Senate committees can begin work this fall on the most significant expansion of the safety net since the 1960s, knowing that legislation cannot be filibustered under the Senate’s complicated budget rules.But before that final vote, which looked set to come either late Tuesday or early Wednesday, senators were having to deal with a blizzard of advisory amendments, and like every vote-a-rama that preceded it, it was painful.“It’s a little bit like an extended visit to a dentist,” said Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University. “The whole process is an exercise in ‘gotchas.’”The Budget Act limits Senate debate to 50 hours on a budget resolution, but over time the Senate has developed its vote-a-rama custom, which allows for an accelerated voting procedure on amendments even after the 50 hours have expired. In recent years, the practice has allowed just minutes of debate for each amendment followed by a short vote.In practice, any senator can prolong the process by offering new amendments for votes until he or she runs out of steam. The result is a procedural food fight with a silly name that does little other than keep Capitol denizens up past their bedtimes and cause twinges of political pain. (Vote-a-RAHM-a? Vote-a-RAM-a? Depends on the senator.)The amendments can range from the serious to the absurd. During a debate over health care in 2010, Senator Tom Coburn, Republican of Oklahoma, forced a vote banning coverage of erectile dysfunction drugs for convicted sex offenders as a way to try to embarrass Democrats who supported the legislation. That prompted Senator Max Baucus, Democrat of Montana, to condemn the amendment as a “mockery of this Senate.”But the power of the political “gotcha” is diminishing with overuse. This is the third vote-a-rama this year alone. During the last episode in March — the longest open vote in modern Senate history — the Senate entertained 37 votes on amendments. During February’s vote-a-rama, there were 41.Should Democrats successfully pass the blueprint and draft a multi-trillion-dollar package, a fourth vote-a-rama is expected in the fall.“The budget resolution is usually the platform for political theater, and both sides having votes that are designed to make a statement because none of it is binding,” said Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, who plans to retire next year.Both parties have historically lamented the vote-a-rama process, but neither wants to give it up. Typically, the party in the minority — in this case, the Republicans — revels in the uncomfortable votes it can force upon the majority party that typically controls the chamber, its floor time and what gets voted on.Republicans hammered Democrats on Tuesday over the size of the spending package, the planned tax increases to pay for it and liberal proposals to rein in climate change, which they deride as part of the “Green New Deal.”Senator Bernie Sanders, who is in charge of the Senate Budget Committee, said his plan was simply “to defeat all of the poison pill amendments.”T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York TimesSenators filed hundreds of amendments, including a list from Senator Josh Hawley, Republican of Missouri, setting up votes to, among other things, add to the budget 100,000 police officers and promote a “patriotic education in K-12 schools” that teaches “students to love America.”Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, had previously vowed “to ferociously attack” the Democrats’ plans. Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader, said on Tuesday that Senate staff members had processed hundreds of amendments and pledged that “every single senator will be going on the record over and over and over.”Democrats largely appeared sanguine before the whole exercise. Senator Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent in charge of the Senate Budget Committee, said his plan was simply “to defeat all of the poison pill amendments.”“That’s the whole point,” said Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts. “They want to try to make us take what they think will be votes that they can use in television ads. This isn’t about legislating. This is just about jockeying for political advantage.”“We’ll have to endure a certain amount of that,” she added, “but we’ll get the budget resolution passed.”Even Republicans acknowledged that, at least with the budget blueprint, it would ultimately be a fruitless endeavor to derail a proposal that Democrats said they had the votes for.“We just continue to have conversations with colleagues on the other side of the aisle, encourage them not to support it, but I just think we’re going to get rolled,” said Senator Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa. “They’ll wipe the slate clean at the end of the process.”Occasionally, though, a binding vote can take place. Republicans, for instance, could try to insist the Judiciary Committee be cut out of the budget reconciliation process, thus blocking the inclusion of a pathway to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants. (But the committee’s inclusion also meant a wider array of amendments could be considered under Senate rules, given the committee’s expansive jurisdiction.)The votes also occasionally produce a moment of truth for politicians. After many Democrats hemmed and hawed over stating their views on a $15 minimum wage this year, a forced vote on an amendment during the vote-a-rama in March revealed seven of the chamber’s more centrist Democrats opposed the increase.Despite the political risks, Mr. Baker said the votes during a vote-a-rama did not typically end up substantially hurting political candidates. Constituents tend to judge their senators on major policy issues, not votes that fly by, often after midnight.“Those kinds of votes can prove to be problematic but in a torrent of amendments, I think it becomes part of the noise,” he said. “That doesn’t mean they’re not going to be scared about it.” More

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      Brad Lander Unites Progressives to Lead Comptroller’s Race

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      Brad Lander holds a lead over Corey Johnson, the speaker of the City Council, after the first ranked-choice voting ballot.As Maya Wiley fought to unite progressives to catch the presumed front-runner, Eric Adams, in the New York City Democratic primary for mayor, Brad Lander was doing the same in another citywide contest, for comptroller.Members of the city’s progressive movement have had success in capturing City Council, state legislative and congressional seats over the past few years, but they have struggled to stretch that influence across the five boroughs in citywide races.As Primary Day approached, that trend seemed to apply to the comptroller race: A recent poll showed Mr. Lander, a councilman from Brooklyn, trailing Corey Johnson, the speaker of the City Council and a late entrant into the race, by nine percentage points; 44 percent of likely voters, however, were undecided.But after the first round of first-place votes was counted on Tuesday night, Mr. Lander had an almost nine-point lead over Mr. Johnson. Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, a former CNBC anchor, was in third, another nine points behind Mr. Johnson, with seven other candidates finishing in the single digits.Mr. Lander had the support of the city’s progressive movement, with endorsements from Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; Jumaane Williams, the public advocate; and Tiffany Cabán, a former candidate for Queens district attorney who is currently leading in her race for a City Council seat.Ms. Ocasio-Cortez also endorsed Ms. Wiley late in the mayoral race, well after she had endorsed Mr. Lander. He was also supported by other prominent progressive leaders like Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, enabling him to firmly establish himself on the left — unlike Ms. Wiley, who vied for that status with other candidates.Mr. Johnson was supported by several labor unions, which usually translates into on-the-ground support and money for advertisements. But Mr. Lander had one of the more memorable campaign ads of the race, featuring his daughter making fun of him for being a “policy nerd.”Mr. Johnson led the Primary Night vote count in Staten Island and the Bronx; Mr. Lander leads in Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn.Ms. Cabán said that progressive groups had campaigned aggressively for Mr. Lander and that he had returned the favor, endorsing 12 progressive candidates for City Council and campaigning with them.“It’s a huge deal,” Ms. Cabán said. “His campaign and the execution and the outcome is a beautiful model of how progressive movements can build power.”The race for comptroller, one of only three citywide elected positions, flew under the radar at a moment when the position has never been more important.As the city’s chief financial officer, the comptroller is the primary auditor and fiscal watchdog, and will help oversee New York’s record-high $99 billion budget as deficits loom in the coming years, as well as at least $14 billion in federal aid coming because of the coronavirus pandemic. The comptroller is also responsible for $250 billion in pension funds covering 620,000 people.Mr. Johnson was a late entrant to the comptroller contest after he dropped out of the race for mayor, citing his mental health.While Mr. Lander proposed being more of an activist comptroller, Mr. Johnson was proposing a “thoughtful, strategic and prudent” comptroller to focus on the city’s finances. He cited his experience shepherding three $90 billion budgets during his time as speaker as an example of his experience and leadership.Anthony Perez, Mr. Johnson’s campaign manager, said they were in a “strong position” as the vote count continued.“We’ve built a broad, diverse coalition with support from communities of color and organized labor, as well as second-choice endorsements from dozens of elected officials and community groups in Brooklyn and Queens, putting us on the path to consolidate support in future rounds of ranked-choice voting,” Mr. Perez said.Mr. Lander said he felt good about his position but that he was a strong proponent of ranked-choice voting, and urged people to wait until all the votes were tabulated.“This is not a race that people paid a lot of attention to, and that left room to be out communicating with voters,” Mr. Lander said. “We had a strong ground game. We were out there.” More

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      With Billions of Dollars at Stake, a Critical Race Vies for Attention

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      Candidates to be New York City’s next chief financial officer are straining for attention from the public during a crucial moment.One candidate, Brad Lander, landed a potent one-two political punch: the coveted endorsement of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and a successful campaign ad using the time-honored strategy of deploying one’s child.Another candidate, Zach Iscol, has support from Hillary Clinton, who is a mentor to him, and is the best friend of her daughter, Chelsea.A third candidate, Corey Johnson, had his own measure of star power, as a former front-runner in this year’s critical race for mayor.None of that has helped elevate the race for comptroller of New York City beyond the din of news and noise that surrounds the mayor’s contest, even with the June 22 primary just days away.As New York emerges from the pandemic, the role of comptroller is especially crucial. Whoever succeeds the current comptroller, Scott M. Stringer, will have a role in making sure at least $14 billion in expected federal stimulus assistance over the next few fiscal years is properly spent, while auditing a $99 billion budget that faces significant gaps in the coming years. Also at stake is the management of roughly $250 billion in pension fund money that covers 620,000 people.But it has not been easy for the candidates to gain attention.A recent debate had to compete with a hastily scheduled mayoral debate, all but guaranteeing a limited audience. The second and final debate was taped this week and will air at a less-than-ideal time: Sunday morning.“That’s prime time for church,” said Brian Benjamin, a state senator from Harlem who is running for comptroller. “No one will be watching.”Mr. Johnson, the City Council speaker and a late entrant in the comptroller’s race, is the current front-runner, according to available polling. He was a leading candidate for mayor but dropped out, citing mental health issues.Trailing close behind are Mr. Lander, a progressive councilman from Brooklyn who has also won endorsements from Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, a former CNBC anchor who ran unsuccessfully against Ms. Ocasio-Cortez last year.The race seems relatively wide open; a recent NY1/Ipsos poll found that 44 percent of likely voters were still undecided about their first choice for comptroller — a potentially worrisome development this year when voters will be allowed to rank up to five choices.The NY1/Ipsos poll had Mr. Johnson at 18 percent and Mr. Lander and Ms. Caruso-Cabrera tied at 9 percent.Other candidates in the race include David Weprin, a state assemblyman from Queens, who polled at 7 percent; Kevin Parker, a state senator from Brooklyn who polled at 6 percent; and Mr. Benjamin, who polled at 5 percent. Mr. Iscol, a nonprofit entrepreneur and former Marine who also dropped out of the mayor’s race to enter the comptroller’s race, registered at 1 percent.The limited attention is no fault of the candidates, who have spent millions of dollars on advertisements and have been crisscrossing the five boroughs at all hours to seek out voters.Mr. Johnson was spotted this week in front of the Fairway supermarket on the Upper West Side campaigning until midnight. Mr. Lander participated in a bike ride around City Hall with delivery workers fighting for better wages and working conditions.Brad Lander, left, has been endorsed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.Victor J. Blue for The New York TimesMr. Lander said he had felt interest in the campaign surging as the city moved toward a full reopening. He received the endorsement of The New York Times editorial board and has collected the most support from progressive elected officials.“Voters will come up and say, ‘I’ve seen your ad,’” Mr. Lander said. “That’s an opportunity to say, ‘This is a critical moment for our city; let’s talk about how the government can work better for all of us.’”Ms. Caruso-Cabrera, who is the daughter of Cuban and Italian immigrants, has focused intensely on Latino voters. She released an ad that she narrates in Spanish.Ms. Caruso-Cabrera has portrayed Mr. Lander and Mr. Johnson as government insiders, allowing the budget to grow under Mayor Bill de Blasio.“We need a fresh set of eyes,” Ms. Caruso-Cabrera said. “We need someone who is independent and who doesn’t want to be the mayor.”Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, a former CNBC anchor, unsuccessfully challenged Ms. Ocasio-Cortez last year.Gabriela Bhaskar for The New York TimesMr. Weprin, who received the endorsement of the city’s police unions and The Daily News, is leaning on his finance experience in the public and private sectors.Mr. Benjamin said he was leaning on his experience as someone with a Harvard M.B.A. and experience as a money manager at Morgan Stanley. His campaign has focused largely on consolidating support in the Black community, which has been difficult given the candidacy of Mr. Parker, who, like Mr. Benjamin, is Black.“The people who are going to vote in this election will pay more attention, and that helps someone like me, who is the qualifications candidate versus the name-recognition candidate,” Mr. Benjamin said.The reference seemed to be a swipe at Mr. Johnson, who, as the race’s most recognizable candidate and its leader, has been the frequent subject of attacks.During the first official debate this month, Mr. Lander accused Mr. Johnson of having been absent from leading the budget process. Ms. Caruso-Cabrera said he had not done enough to keep the budget from growing under Mr. de Blasio.Mr. Weprin questioned whether Mr. Johnson, a high school graduate who recently enrolled at the School of General Studies at Columbia University, was qualified for the job.“Corey Johnson only has a high school diploma,” Mr. Weprin said. “I was on Wall Street for over 25 years, and you can’t get a job on Wall Street without getting a college degree.”Mr. Johnson dismissed the criticism as the desperate tactic of candidates who are trailing in the last days of a race.“After negotiating three on-time, balanced, $90 billion budgets, I know this city’s finances better than anyone in this race,” Mr. Johnson said.Yet as he stood in front of the Fairway on Friday evening, several voters were more interested in Mr. Johnson’s choice for mayor than in his candidacy for comptroller.“What does the comptroller do?” Mar Dominguez, 60, said to Mr. Johnson, asking for a quick refresher. Ms. Dominguez, a hospitality worker, said the election season had been simply overwhelming. “Everyone’s harassing me. There’s too much mail, and too many people are calling my phone. This morning, they were ringing my doorbell,” she said. More