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    Interview: Kathy Hochul Talks to the New York Times Editorial Board

    Kathy Hochul is the governor of New York. She served as the state’s lieutenant governor.This interview with Ms. Hochul was conducted by the editorial board of The New York Times on Oct. 17.Read the board’s endorsement for the governor’s race in New York here.Brent Staples: Give us some insight into why this race is so close.Why it’s so close? Well, first of all, thanks for having me back again. There’s something going on nationally. If you track all the races, the Democratic races, the congressional races, the gubernatorial races, and we’re outperforming in a lot of those.But you’re basically — again, you’re referencing that on polls, and polls don’t make a difference to Election Day. And I will tell you, as someone who’s run in 14 elections, they go up and down like this, depending on all kinds of factors outside the control of the person running — the cost of gas and inflation rate. So I think that’s what’s happening.People are just looking at what’s happening all over the country, feeling some unease. And take a look at it, but all I need to do is get my message out, and to be able to point to the fact. And I think this is going to widen the race very substantially.Because of your excellent reporting, people will now find out that Lee Zeldin was not this innocent bystander that he’s trying to present himself as, but was actually giving direction to President Trump’s chief of staff on how to subvert the electoral process. And when that gets out there, that is a disqualifying fact that people will need to know about him.[In the days after the 2020 presidential election, Mr. Zeldin texted Mark Meadows “ideas” for how to use unsubstantiated allegations about voting irregularities.]So we just got to build our case, talk about what we’re going to do, but also expose Lee Zeldin for who he truly is. And he does not deserve to be the governor of New York.Kathleen Kingsbury: Obviously, crime is down from its historic highs, but it is still up about a third here in the city. Your opponent has made quite a big deal about the issue of public safety. How do you — how will you get voters to trust that you’re going to make the city safer?They know what I’m doing already. We have worked very hard to get guns off the streets, and I understand people know, from me, my words directly, that public safety is my top priority, always has been. And what we’ve done to focus on something — Lee Zeldin thinks that we need more guns on the streets, we need more guns in the subways.I was in a synagogue Saturday, and I was in churches on Sundays, and I’ll tell you, none of those individuals want to sit next to someone that might be carrying a weapon. And that is the Lee Zeldin world that he’s trying to present to us. So I’m focusing on guns.We had over 7,000 guns off the streets in the last year — actually, since January, when I convened a first-ever task force — nine states, plus N.Y.P.D. … and New York police are actually working together. Extraordinary. No one’s ever done that.I was called out by President Biden for doing that. He says no one’s ever done this. So we now have — we’re getting more guns off the streets. And the crime rate, overall, I dissect — I look at the numbers every day.Statewide, our shootings are down about 13 percent — statewide, about 12 percent; New York City, down 13 percent since I’ve been in office. Nationwide, it’s down 2 percent. And that’s all the states.So we’re making more progress on illegal guns, banning ghost guns, my assault weapon ban for teenagers — all the things we’ve had to do. And despite our best efforts — and since we last met, I had to deal with the Supreme Court that overturned the right of a governor to protect her citizens from people carrying guns anywhere they want. The concealed carry law worked for 108 years.And so I pulled back the Legislature, literally, by June 30, had a plan in place. I knew this was coming or could come. And we got them — this is how cooperation really leads to quick results.The Legislature was willing to come back, pass legislation, and we made those changes. And again, we’re in court — every time the governor does something on guns, there’s always litigation. We knew it. Bring it on.But I believe that we have a right to protect our citizens on the streets, get the guns off the streets. And that is my focus. With any crime plan that Lee Zeldin puts forward, that does not talk about guns, is a joke.Nick Fox: Do you think concerns about crime are real or exaggerated?They’re real, because people feel it. I understand the sense of insecurity that’s out there. I do spend a lot of time in the communities. I was at a diner yesterday. I talked to people just randomly, and people are concerned.Now, convincing people that this is still the safest big city in America, that our crime rates are down — our subways have had some recent problems, but we have more law enforcement down there, and putting cameras in the subways. We’re making progress, but it’s a difficult — that’s the challenge.I can talk about data all day long. But how people feel — and in this hyper-politicized environment, being told how they feel — it was fascinating to see a Bloomberg study that showed that incidences of crime over the last decade, and the news coverage of it — about parallel.They both go up absolutely across the nation. And since the pandemic, the media coverage of crimes is up four times in relation to the actual number of instances. And I’m not saying this paper — there’s another paper.So I just want to say that that feeds into people’s perceptions and anxieties, but I deal with people’s feelings. That’s what I have to deal with. I can’t just say the numbers are better. I need to let them know that I am focused on this 100 percent, because that is the reason that we’re being held back from our full recovery. And we have to overcome that.Eleanor Randolph: So Zeldin talks about — if he gets elected, he’s going to declare a state of emergency about crime. And he also says he’s going to — I don’t know — fail to enforce the bail law. What do you think about that? What do you think about whether he can actually do that?Right out of the Trump playbook. Sounds like a dictator to me. He’s going to just undermine laws and forget laws that were passed — duly passed by the Legislature? You can’t do that. You can’t do that.And it’s absurd to try to use that as a panacea to tell everybody, I’ll just magically wave a wand and ignore the will of the Legislature, which has a supermajority. You can’t do that. So he’s just feeding people a whole lot of lies, misperceptions, and trying to create this image of himself to be able to do more than I can on crime.I will put my record on fighting crime out there with anybody’s. We have made real progress. And we’ve made targeted changes to the bail laws. We spoke before at our previous meetings — the underlying premise behind them.We make some targeted changes to make sure that repeat offenders, cases where there’s guns involved, orders of protection and hate crimes are now covered. But we’re not turning our backs on criminal justice reform either. So we’ve found the right balance, but you know what’s not working? The system itself.I need all the components to work — starting with our backlog in the court system. This has been exposed as a real driver for two straight years — no jury trials. When I got elected, I said, “Why aren’t there jury trials?” Because the Office of Court Administration, court appeals judge, was firm that they not have jury trials, because people had to sit six feet apart.This is a time — kids are back in school. People are back at work. Closer than six feet, but the jury system, they said you couldn’t put anybody within six feet. So, you know the size of our courthouses. There’s not enough room.So we did not have the administration of justice for two years. People that had their day in court, who should have their day in court — either proven innocent, go back home, or you’re guilty of a crime — deal with the consequences. So that’s a problem. I’m working toward getting a new court appeals judge.My responsibility, after recommendations come, I’m going to be focused on someone where their No. 1 top assistant has the capacity to deal with what has become an administrative nightmare. We have to fix that.We also need the support for the policing. We also need to support the violence disrupter programs, which I’ve supported financially three times more than we have before, and also the district attorneys to properly charge and for judges to do the right thing. Then the system works. Because simply saying it’s bail when all across the country, our crime rate is lower — I mean, there’s just a disconnect between reality and the representation that he is making in his campaign. It’s absurd.Mara Gay: Governor, thank you. Inflation, and especially in New York, the cost of housing, is a serious constituent issue for many voters in the state. What specifically will you commit to doing about those issues, especially on housing?Thank you. I mean, I talked about what I’m leaning into. We spoke about how I’ve had to be a crisis manager since I took office — the shooting in Buffalo, Omicron, hurricanes, and even since we last met, the Supreme Court decisions, what I had to deal with on abortion and guns.But when I think about my vision for going forward, top priorities are creating a New York where people want to live and want to move here. And within that is how do we make it affordable so they can?No. 1 cost for a family or an individual is their housing. So we will not be able to be this place that meets all the needs of bringing people here if we don’t get more affordability. So I know that the governor sets the agenda. I’m fully aware of that. I plan on unleashing the power that I have, working together with the Legislature, advocacy groups, the industry, and pulling together a plan that’s going to be transformative.And I say that because, since the last day the Legislature left session, I directed my top-notch policy team to go out there and find the answers from other states, think tanks, convene meetings with industry. So my policy team has been working on ideas.Part of it’s going to have to be incentives for developers. Because as we saw, when you shut down 421a, permits dried up. I said this was going to happen. Now, I put together something that was better than 421a — 485w, which allowed for far more affordable housing in the context.And that was actually an agreement with the industry and labor to do that. The Legislature wasn’t supportive, and I had spent a lot of my political capital on public safety initiatives, where I said, “All right, we’ll visit again next year.” Then we’ll see the data, which shows, despite the fact that people said that so-called giveaways to billionaires, they’ll still build affordable housing because of the goodness of their heart. We know that didn’t work.And so now I have the data to show the stoppage of permits. So the crisis I have, the state has — over the next 10 years, we have to build over 500,000, possibly up to 1.2 million, new units.My plan last year was $25 billion toward affordable housing. It sounds like a big number, right? To do something? That gets me one-tenth of that goal. It’s 100,000 units. One hundred thousand units of affordable housing and supportive housing.So, it’s about looking at all the regulations. I said I want to see a list of every single city and state barrier to be able to have more density, grant-oriented development, and take another look at A.D.U.s [accessory dwelling units]. We talked — tried hotel conversions, but as it turned out, there wasn’t as much inventory as there had been when this was first proposed, so that wasn’t successful.So now we look at offices as well. Office conversions — classy office space — a lot of little buildings won’t lend themselves to it. But we have a plan to focus on that as well.So I will also look to other thought leaders to help me build the support behind this. Newspapers, like The New York Times — because you have that. But I need to change the mind-set of the elected officials, who have been — with one decision, be able to stop a project that could help literally hundreds of families in the Bronx, in Queens, elsewhere.These projects have to be unleashed with — we need market rate. We need affordable housing. We need supportive housing. This has been jammed up for too darn long. And I plan on unleashing this with an aggressive approach, because failure is not an option.That is the barrier we have to people being able to live here. Places on Long Island, where I was at the diner yesterday — families saying to me, “My kids can’t grow up in the same community they were raised in.” That’s a tragedy. That’s a tragedy. That’s nothing to do with them. It’s not education. Love the state. And if we drive them out because of affordability, then we fail.Same thing with the city — more young people want to come here than I’ve ever seen in my lifetime. And the energy behind the tech jobs — they’re just booming, especially on the West Side. It’s exciting. But if they can’t afford a house, an apartment, co-op, condo, it’s not going to work.So that is where I’m going to spend my political capital, because it fits into my larger framework. The vision of New York over the next five years is creating a place where people not just want to live but can live, and get a good job, and start a business if they want, and raise their families.When I focus on my policies — and I really do love policies, as much as I’ve had to deal with crises — I love getting my hands into policies and asking: Why? Why can’t we do it this way? Why can’t we do it this way?So I’ll be taking a very, very engaged approach. Already have been, and put forth our plan. So that’s — we have to have that.Alex Kingsbury: You answered Mara’s question on housing. I’m curious about inflation as the biggest political headwind the Democrats are facing nationwide, and probably here in New York. Your opponent’s running against it. Is there anything you can do?Well, we’ve focused on areas we can put more money back in the pockets of New Yorkers. Inflation’s about 8.2, 8.3 percent right now. It is this record high. I understand that. And this is one of those challenges that we have across this country, not just New York.But in our budget, we addressed the gas tax. We waited for the duration of the year. We want to take a look at that again. We got $2.1 billion in property tax rebates for people — middle-class tax cuts.The one area where we haven’t really spent as much time as I’d like is on the affordability of child care — one of the reasons so many moms are not back to work and couldn’t get back to work. So our plan was $7.7 billion. We’re starting to see the benefits now, as we’re able to tell New Yorkers that half of all children in the state of New York are eligible for subsidies, plus subsidies and increases for the workers.It’s important to organizations. You know, whether it’s in a church and it’s in a synagogue, or whether it’s the Y.W.C.A., all the places are getting more support from us than they ever have before. But I also tell you what — I’m using a different approach.When I talk to developers and people who want economic development support from the state of New York, I say bring it on. Come on, we’re all excited. Tell me about your child care plan. Tell me what you’re doing for your employees, whether it’s a consortium of other businesses in a small downtown, you’ve got to work together, whether it’s you’re rebuilding a new office — can you dedicate one floor to this?I said, “This will be the biggest driver for women to want to work at your facility.” They’ll get you at a competitive advantage. I’ve said this all over the state to tech companies as well. So I’m excited about blending the needs of families with our economic development dollars. And I think we’ll have a real key for success. We’re putting that in our next budget as well.Jyoti Thottam: So, Governor, just back to your power to set the agenda. As you know, the governor has more than $900 million in your budget that can be used without real oversight or transparency. You’ve accepted tens of millions of dollars in campaign funds from donors with business before the state.You’ve also decided that you’re accepting campaign donations from state board and commission appointees. I know they weren’t people that you originally appointed. But you’ve come under some criticism for that. What do you say about voters who are concerned about ethics and expecting you, again, to set the agenda on ethics?Brent Staples: I’ll piggyback on that question, too. I just want to emphasize, do you realize how bad the optics of that were, in accepting the contributions from the people on boards, from these people on the commission?We are very clear that we weren’t. I was not putting anyone on a board for making a contribution —Brent Staples: My question is, do you realize how bad the optics of that was? It looked really bad from there.Well, I appreciate the commentary on that, but here’s what I’m doing. I’m following all the rules, making sure that there is no connection between any contributions and any policies with state government. I’ve been in office for 30 years. I’m very careful about this — making sure that everyone around me follows the rules.But what you’re proposing, in a sense, is creating an environment where it’s very difficult for people who don’t have millions of their own dollars to run for office. I come out of public service. I follow the rules. Always have, always will. And raising money is part of being able to remain as governor when I took office a year ago.So what I don’t do is have billionaires, like Trump-supporting billionaires, like Ron Lauder, dumping nearly $10 million in dark money against me. That’s what someone in my position has to counter, you know? That’s the reality. No matter what I raise, and they’re still not done, more money can come in at the end and give them the firepower. That is the challenge we all face.I will support reforms. I helped write campaign finance reform when I was a young staffer for Senator Moynihan. I’ve worked on this my whole life. And I’ve stood up to the campaign finance office. I have 14 employees. I unlocked this. And it’s been talked about — these reforms. And those will come. That’s what we’re putting in motion now.But what I don’t do — and predecessors have done this — is, at a fund-raiser, where there’s people — all different individuals have interests, yes? I don’t bring government staff. It’s pretty shocking to realize that, before, you could go to a fund-raiser and talk to the chief of staff to the governor, the budget director, head of an agency. I said, “No, think about the perception of that, the access.”I only have a couple of young campaign staffers at events with me. We do it very differently. But I will always, because of the responsibility I have, to let people know that I’m going to make sure that we have the highest ethics.I changed JCOPE [the Joint Commission on Public Ethics] completely. I said I was going to blow it up because it wasn’t working. I don’t even know who my appointees are on that board. I said, “I want distance.” We had set up a system where independents — I have — law school professors, law school deans are the ones who are selecting who determines ethics investigations in our state. And I think that’s appropriate, instead of having my own appointees. You talked about the optics of appointees. How about appointing your former staffers and friends to the ethics board? So —Eleanor Randolph: Well, you changed a lot of things.I understand perception is important. But the reality is, we follow all the rules. Full disclosure. Everybody knows where our money comes from. And unlike the dark, sinister money that’s going to super PACs, there actually are limits.Eleanor Randolph: But to Jyoti’s point, the Citizens Budget Commission identified almost $1 billion that they called — that has been called a slush fund — and said there was very little transparency about where this money went and questions about whether it went to different areas for political purposes for this campaign. How can you promise that there’ll be more transparency upfront about this? And I know that slush fund has been there forever. It’s not new. But still, the transparency is the hard part, really.Right, and the transparency comes from — this has to be approved by the Legislature. I don’t just go find a billion dollars and put it in a fund. The Legislature is involved in this.Eleanor Randolph: Yes, but you and I know there are all these private meetings before you come up with a budget. And this particular fund is the one that Citizens Budget Commission is concerned about, because it’s just there like a slush fund that you can use to hand out to different areas.No, these all come through different agencies. If it’s economic development funds, it comes through our Regional Economic Development Councils. The decisions made, for example, for money dedicated for Long Island — I didn’t make the decisions that we do $10 million for Feinstein Institute. That went through a process.That went through a process where the Regional Economic Development Council makes recommendations. And they recommend it to us. And money that’s for any economic development project. There’s no situation where I sit there and say where it’s going to go. I take the recommendations of — these are fellow citizens. These are citizens and business people who make those determinations.So, I know there’s cynicism associated with all of this. I understand that. And my job is to restore equal space in government once again. And I’ll continue doing that every single day, following all the rules, making sure we have the highest ethics. And that’s what I committed to from the first day, when I knew I had to do a lot of cleanup and rehabilitation of the state’s reputation at the time. And I’m still committed to that.Nick Fox: You recently got a very good look at some of the worst of the M.T.A. and how East Side Access went billions of dollars over budget. Do you think enough has been done to change the way the M.T.A. operates? And given the decline of the revenue, how do you improve ridership, and how do you get the repairs that need to be done?Important question, something I deal with regularly. First of all, the history you talked about was long and sordid. And I’m glad that Janno Lieber, who I elevated, was part of the solution, not the problem. So we don’t have the same actors that were involved in what has happened in the past. So I’m looking forward. How do we continue to make these investments?First of all, operationally. I’ve already asked Janno for a report on internal savings that can be found that — we also know that increase in ridership — people have to feel secure, safe. And it’s interesting how it works. Look, the more riders there are, the safer the subway is. We’re still down about 61 to 63 percent of prepandemic ridership on weekdays, depending on which day. Seventy-three percent on weekends. But as long as there’s trains that are not full, then people don’t feel secure, and they’re not as secure.So driving more people back by giving them quality service, on-time trains — there’s no changing our trains, our system, our services. If we cut services, then people have a disincentive to come. So we have to maintain high-quality service, find areas we can cut, find new revenue sources. And I push them to find new revenue sources for us.Look, that’s on the operations side. On the capital side, we’re going to continue making the investments. And East Side Access will finish under my watch. When I first became governor — I still have regular meetings with the Port Authority, Rick Cotton, Janno Lieber, tell me all the products that are outstanding. What’s the timetable, and how can we shave off time? Shave off a year, six months, whatever you do, because now, rising cost inflation, time is money. I cannot afford another day.So I bring this sense of urgency of just getting the job done. Finished Long Island Rail Road Third Track. Critically important. Finishing East Side Access literally by the end of this year. We’re starting Penn Station before the costs get any higher, because I don’t want there to be any excuse why we can’t have a world-class, spectacular facility there. We’ve already made some progress in one of the terminals, or one of the wings there.So the operations side and capital side. Capital side is going to be assisted by congestion pricing. Right now we have the Traffic Mobility Review Board coming up with recommendations to give to the M.T.A. That process will probably go on for two more months. I think they’re doing all the public comments that came in. And a lot of issues arose. We’re listening to them. They’re listening to them. They’ll make recommendations.So that’s how we have the money dedicated for future capital investments to make up for years of neglect. And then we also have challenges on the operational side. Because of federal money, we’re good through 2024 with the budget. But I said, “Let’s start making the changes now.” I’m not waiting until then. Let’s start making the changes internally now so we don’t go off a cliff in 2024, 2025.Mara Gay: What’s the most significant change that you’ve made that you can point to with the M.T.A. versus the way former Governor Cuomo was involved?I’m letting them run it. I’m letting them run it because they are the transit experts, not us. My own agenda does not come into play when I have brilliant experts running the operations and have worked on finding public safety.We’ve put cameras in the trains now. That gives people a strong sense of security. We’ve been focusing on our M.T.A. transit police that watch the trains all along Metro-North. The City of New York is responsible for policing the subway itself. So I think it’s more of a collaborative approach — letting the experts drive the decisions as opposed to political interference.Jyoti Thottam: Congestion pricing, though — that’s a policy that transit experts really love. But how do you sell it to New Yorkers whose commutes will immediately get more expensive — the ones who are still driving — that this is good for you and good for the city?And this was a major change. What people will learn about me is, I’m not afraid of major challenges. Yes, the easier thing is to walk away and say, “Let someone else handle this a decade from now.” That’s not who I am. We need to get this done. And the operative word in congestion pricing is “congestion.” That’s why I had to walk here today, because there’s delivery trucks. Delivery trucks are jamming up 39th.Listen, all over, we’re becoming paralyzed. And there’s a huge economic cost to that. And it becomes a deterrent. Why would you even want to drive in the city? It’s like, they’re going to get stuck trying to find a parking lot. They’re not going to get within a block of where they want to go for 40 minutes.So then there’s the environment. We have only this time on Earth to make a huge difference and reverse what has happened to our planet under our watch. And I’m committed to this. And so the efforts to get more vehicles off the streets is going to have a better outcome with asthma rates.We’re transitioning to electric buses, electric public buses, but also vehicles, and also enhancing our public transit. We have — have you guys seen Long Island Rail Road? It is spectacular. If you’ve not been on it lately, you need to take a ride on this. The cars are clean. The stations are gorgeous. You can plug in and charge your phone.So what we’re offering people to help overcome the hesitation is more connectability, a better experience, more reliable, so we can encourage more people to take public transportation, which is the whole origin, the whole premise behind congestion pricing overall. We’re looking for the recommendations on communities that will be hit, industries that will be hit. So this is not set in stone yet. So obviously those conversations are still ongoing.Eleanor Randolph: You mentioned climate change and the environment. What do you think about fracking? I gather that Mr. Zeldin, Congressman Zeldin, is interested in opening that back up again. How do you feel about this?Donald Trump told him that’s what he should do. I’m sure that’s what he’s proposing. I don’t support that. No, we have a vision. And it has an executable plan behind it. It’s not just a pipe dream. We actually have a strategy on how to bring in more renewable power from Hydro-Québec coming down from Champlain Trail, bringing in more wind and solar from places like Sullivan County. I did this one year ago.And people suggested that one of these two energy sources — one might be better than the other. I said, “Do them both.” P.S.C. [the New York Public Service Commission] had to make a decision, but I recommended we do both. Then we can really, really stop our reliance on renewable — on fossil-fuel-generated power — and just start getting into this future and reducing the cost of electricity so no one thinks twice about their next vehicle being an electric vehicle, and as we electrify buildings.So if you don’t just take the leap and say, “Now is the time” — I’ve said this before, growing up in a very polluted community in Buffalo. I thought the skies were supposed to be orange, because that’s all I saw in Lackawanna with the steel plant, where my dad worked, grandpa worked. So I come out of [inaudible]. I am by nature an environmentalist, and know that we’ve lost too much time. So we are the —Eleanor Randolph: No fracking.Last generation that can really do anything about climate change. We’re the first to really feel the effects, the last [inaudible].Eleanor Randolph: No fracking.Kathleen Kingsbury: We only have a couple of minutes left, but I wanted to return to the M.T.A. for one second. One of the biggest drivers of the perception that taking the train is unsafe right now is the clear number of people with mental illness who are often on the trains now. Is there anything that you can do, as the governor, on that issue specifically, or any way that you can work with the mayor to improve that question?Working very close with the mayor on this. Our teams have been embedded since he was on the job two weeks. And we went down to the subway together and proposed a joining of his forces and state resources for people that are part of these S.O.S. teams, because just moving someone along is a guarantee they’re just going to be back the next day. Just dealing realities.Again, it ties into a question about this housing crisis. This is a driver because there’s not enough places to take people to give them a safe experience. But safety is important. And we worked on Kendra’s Law. We made some improvements to Kendra’s Law.And also, what I found is a lot of people really do need to be hospitalized for a time being to get on a path toward a real recovery program, as opposed to just cycling back into the community. And I said, “Why aren’t there more psychiatric beds out there?” And I was always pressing. I’m always asking questions. Why aren’t there more psychiatric beds?It turns out that there’s a differential in reimbursement for Medicaid for the hospitals and whether or not it’s a psychiatric bed, which is more costly than a nonpsychiatric bed. So there was a financial disincentive for hospitals to have psychiatric beds.So I said, “OK, compress that.” The state will pick up the cost of making it fairer for hospitals, because it’s a public-policy imperative that we have more places for them to get genuine treatment that’s going to help them get on a different path. And we’ll do that. Last I saw, there was another 1,000 beds that had come online as a result of just that decision.That’s how I operate. I see a problem. I know where I want to get. And I’ll press all the levers to make that happen. We did that with affordable housing. We’re going to do that with trying to help the cost-of-living challenges, because it’s energy costs as well. It’s almost $500, on average, for people’s monthly energy bill. These are real challenges.But dealing with the probably 700 to 1,000 people who have severe mental health problems that are either on the subways, in the subways, on the streets or in the stations is something that we’re focused on. More resources. I mean, a lot of people say we need more money. I put more money and I’ll continue to put more money to support the mayor’s efforts to deal with this crisis.Mara Gay: Governor, we have just two minutes more. Can we talk a little bit about your path to victory in this surprisingly competitive race?The more people know about Lee Zeldin and how extremely dangerous he is, and now his direct connection to the attempted overturn of our government and the democratic process, I think, is going to be jaw-droppingly shocking to people.Mara Gay: But who are your voters, and where are your voters? And how are you turning them out?We are. I was in the Bronx all day Saturday. People are excited. They’re excited. I think there’s an energy around the historic nature of the first woman elected. I’m proud of that. It’s not the reason I should be governor, but a lot of people are energized by that. Also, I’ve walked these streets. I’ve been in the communities, I spent last week in Brooklyn. That’s not my first time walking the streets of Brooklyn. It’s probably my 700th.And so the communities where I show up — the churches and the places of gathering in Black and brown communities — they have seen me before. Their leaders know me. Their elected officials know me. And they know that I have the heart and the passion to lead, and also the toughness. This is not a job for the faint of heart. And I’ve always believed, if it doesn’t kill you, it makes you stronger. There is no one stronger in the state of New York than I am. I am ready for this now.Eleanor Randolph: Do you think the women’s vote will be energized by abortion? Do you still see that? It seems to be fading in the polls.It’s still an issue. You only need to win by a small amount. You just have to win. You have to have the majority to win. So I do believe that there will be women in — suburban, Republican women. We’re seeing that there is more interest — independent women.Democratic women are with us. That’s great. And they’re excited about the historic nature, as well as knowing that they have someone who will protect abortion rights, as opposed to someone who actually literally cheered the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and now to try to back-walk this? That was just a couple months ago.Seriously, give the voters of New York a little more credit. They do not have amnesia. They’ve not forgotten your history in overturning the election and your resistance to any common sense gun —Brent Staples: Are you relying on ads for that? Are you relying on television ads for that? You keep saying about people learning how bad Lee Zeldin is. When are they going to learn that? How are they going to learn about it?We’ve been on the air since August on that message.Brent Staples: So you’ve — right now, you mean?Oh, yeah. We have been saying that to you. They’re all over the air. Our first one starts out with the insurrection, pictures of the overturning of the Capitol —Brent Staples: So you shot your shot on that already.Yeah, yeah.Brent Staples: So I’m asking what’s coming, because —Well, just stay tuned. I’m not going to tell you everything right now.Bent Staples: I will tell you, I think that the shot you shot is not working.Well —Brent Staples: Just a citizen’s observation.I’ll tell you another thing people don’t know is how aggressive I am on economic development. One thing that’s going to get people very energized … Micron. Micron — the rest of the nation, every governor wanted to attract Micron. They came to New York. We had a partnership with Chuck Schumer. We had to work at the federal level with President Biden.I got the deal done, overcoming a lot of hesitation. But because of relationships I have with the Legislature, they trusted me. I said, “If we can put together a green CHIPS bill, meaning there has to be intense sustainability standards in this, I can attract them.” And they were not coming here. In fact, after we won Micron, there was reporting in Texas, very disappointed community. They were sure they had landed it. So now what I had done is had a breakthrough. I could say that this is a state that welcomes business.And what that means, more importantly to me, is that 50,000 jobs, partially upstate. But [inaudible] walked in the Bronx. And he says, “Do you think we could use, possibly, the abandoned armory?” I’ve been sitting down with a lot of people saying, “What can we do with this armory?” It has to have new life. And it could be a work force training center. He says, “Can we think about getting semiconductor training, manufacturing,” which has now come to New York because I insisted that we have a policy —[A spokeswoman for Ms. Hochul told The Times that the governor has discussed with local officials the possibility of opening a work force training center in the Bronx for jobs expected to come to the state with Micron.]Brent Staples: It’s mainly robotic.Pardon me?Brent Staples: Semiconductor making is mainly robotic now.We need all kinds of skills. Fifty thousand jobs. And those aren’t the construction jobs. That’s not the construction. That’s 50,000 jobs for the supply chain, all the component parts. But he says, “Will we be teaching people in the Bronx about these jobs, getting that training done?”So that’s, to me, I see the connection of upstate and downstate. Continue creating jobs. And there’s a whole supply chain opportunity and training opportunity because we delivered — we promised we’d get people the jobs they needed. We came to New York. We will get you the people with the skills you need. This is a game changer. This is the most historic investment in our state’s history from the private sector. That happened because I wouldn’t let go of that deal.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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    Republican Wins Special House Election in Rural New York

    Joe Sempolinski, a local Republican Party leader and former congressional aide, won a special election on Tuesday for a vacant House seat in western New York, according to The Associated Press, keeping the sprawling rural district under Republican control.The race was surprisingly close, but Mr. Sempolinski was ultimately able to capitalize on his deep Republican Party ties in one of the most conservative regions of the state to repel a Democratic challenge by Max Della Pia, an Air Force veteran.Mr. Sempolinski had won 53 percent of the vote, compared with 47 percent for Mr. Della Pia, with 95 percent of votes counted. Mr. Trump won the district by 12 points in 2020.In the short term, the Republican victory will serve to tighten Democrats’ already narrow margin in the House of Representatives in Washington. The seat in the 23rd Congressional District, centered in New York’s rural Southern Tier and running west to Lake Erie, had been vacant since Representative Tom Reed, a Republican, left the House in May to take a position at a Washington lobbying firm.Mr. Sempolinski’s time in Washington will be short-lived. A former aide to Mr. Reed and a current Republican county chairman, he does not plan to run for a full term in November’s midterm election.“I am looking forward to hitting the ground running and making sure constituent services are back up and working” Mr. Sempolinski, 39, said on Tuesday night after securing the victory. “We have no time to waste.”Despite his defeat in the special election, Mr. Della Pia, 69, will be on the ballot again in November as the Democratic nominee for the newly reconfigured 23rd District. On the campaign trail, he has highlighted his long military service, stressed a bipartisan approach to governance and said he would prioritize creating jobs and protecting the environment.Mr. Della Pia will face the winner of a bitter Republican primary contest between Carl P. Paladino, a wealthy businessman known for his impolitic public statements, and Nick Langworthy, the chairman of the New York Republican Party.The new district, which will include portions of suburban and exurban Buffalo in addition to the Southern Tier, still heavily favors Republicans. But if Mr. Paladino prevails, his far right positions and explosive statements on race and history could make the race more competitive. More

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    Congress Is Paralyzed on Guns. Here’s Why Chris Murphy Is Still Hopeful.

    The Democrat from Connecticut, who has spent his decade in the Senate trying and failing to enact gun safety bills, says his party should make the issue the core of its 2022 midterm message.WASHINGTON — It did not take long after the racist gun massacre in Buffalo for a familiar sense of resignation to set in on Capitol Hill about the chance that Congress would be able to muster the will to act on meaningful legislation to combat gun violence in America.In emotional remarks at the scene of the mass shooting on Tuesday, President Biden made no direct call for Congress to take such action. Afterward, he told reporters that he intended to do so, but was frank about his belief that persuading lawmakers to move would be “very difficult.”Around the same time, top Democrats on Capitol Hill were publicly conceding that their paper-thin majority in the Senate meant there was little they would be able to do to prevent the next tragedy.“We’re kind of stuck where we are, for the time being,” said Senator Richard J. Durbin, Democrat of Illinois and the chairman of the Judiciary Committee, playing down the chance that even a modest bill to strengthen background checks for gun purchases could overcome a Republican blockade.Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, shares his colleagues’ skepticism that any legislation can move. But he is also concerned that Democrats may squander a chance to turn the issue of gun safety into a rallying cry for the midterm elections.For a decade, the issue of gun violence has defined Mr. Murphy’s career; the 2012 massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., took place a month after he won his seat.Mr. Murphy spoke to The New York Times from a Senate cloakroom about the chances for legislative action on guns, what Mr. Biden should do and why he thinks Democrats will lose control of Congress if they don’t make combating gun violence the core of their 2022 appeal to voters.The interview has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.After the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, when 20 young children and six adults were killed, did Democrats and President Barack Obama miss the opportunity to pass meaningful gun safety legislation?There was this popular meme in 2013, which said that if the killing of 20 children didn’t result in any action, nothing will. That’s fundamentally the wrong way to look at how Washington works. There are few epiphanies here. It’s all about political power, and political muscle, and we’re in the process of building our own.The National Rifle Association and the gun lobby was ready for us, and for those parents, in 2013. The anti-gun-violence movement was essentially nonexistent, and the N.R.A. was at its peak power.From Opinion: The Buffalo ShootingCommentary from Times Opinion on the massacre at a grocery store in a predominantly Black neighborhood in Buffalo.The Times Editorial Board: The mass shooting in Buffalo was an extreme expression of a political worldview that has become increasingly central to the G.O.P.’s identity.Jamelle Bouie: G.O.P. politicians and conservative media personalities did not create the idea of the “great replacement,” but they have adopted it.Paul Krugman: There is a direct line from Republicans’ embrace of crank economics, to Jan. 6, to Buffalo.Sway: In the latest episode of her podcast, Kara Swisher hosts a discussion on the role of internet platforms like 4chan, Facebook and Twitch in the attack.We needed time to build up a movement that is stronger than the gun lobby.My worry is that a lot of my colleagues still believe in the mythology of 1994, when everyone thought Democrats lost Congress over the assault weapons ban. That’s not true — that’s not why Congress flipped. Ever since then, Democrats are under the illusion that it’s a losing issue for us.It’s one of the most important wedge issues, and if we don’t talk about it, then we’re going to lose.Many are urging Senator Chuck Schumer and Mr. Durbin to bring up a bill to expand background checks. Even if it couldn’t pass, it would force Republicans to defend their opposition to a policy that polls show has broad support. Should they?There are times when show votes help define the parties. I’m not confident this is one of those moments, given the fact that it’s already pretty clear which side Republicans fall on and which side Democrats fall on.My main recommendation is for Democrats to go out and run on this issue, proudly and strongly. My worry is we would have a vote on the Senate floor, but then Democrats would not be willing to go out and talk about that vote in campaigns.The only way we actually change the dynamic on this issue is to make Republicans show we believe this is a winning electoral issue. That’s what we did in 2018. My worry is, we don’t feel the same confidence in this issue as a winning electoral issue in 2022.I don’t know why we don’t learn a lesson from 2018, that when we run strongly on the issue of guns, universal background checks, banning assault weapons, we turn out voters that otherwise would stay home in the midterms. I’ve talked to Senator Schumer about bringing a vote to the Senate floor. I’m not interested in taking a vote on the Senate floor if we don’t talk about it.If legislation can’t pass, what executive actions are you pushing the administration to take?There is still a ton of harmful gray area around the question of who needs to be a licensed gun dealer. There are a lot of folks peddling guns online and at gun shows who are truly in the business of selling guns, and should be required to do background checks. President Obama put out helpful, but not binding, guidance. The administration could put some real meat on the existing statute and define what it means to be in the business of selling guns.Have you pitched that to them?I have. There has been significant interest from the White House in pursuing that line of policy. I don’t know that they have made a commitment or issued any directive to the Justice Department.Do you support eliminating the filibuster in order to pass gun reforms?One hundred percent. The reason we can’t get this done is the rules of the Senate, not because the American people haven’t made a choice.Guns were one of the most important issues for voters in 2018; it ranked second behind health care. When voters came to the polls in 2018 and elected a Democratic majority in the House, it was with the explicit purpose of getting gun legislation passed. The same voters came back and elected a Democratic president. It’s simply the rules of the Senate that stopped the will of the American people from becoming law.Is there anything happening in terms of discussions with Senators Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, and Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, about trying to revive their bill to tighten background checks?There’s nothing new happening now. Manchin-Toomey doesn’t have 60 votes. I spent much of the last two years trying to find a piece of Manchin-Toomey that could get 60 votes. Ultimately, we couldn’t find a landing place. I’ll continue to try any creative avenue to find an expansion of background checks.Does a weakened National Rifle Association create any opening for Republicans to move off their opposition to gun safety measures?This N.R.A. stamp of approval still really matters to them. Inside a Republican Party that has become bereft of big ideas, they’ve only got one left, which is the destruction of government. Nothing signals that more than the endorsement of the organization that supports people arming themselves against the government. In this era of anti-government fervor, it’s more important than ever.Eventually, we have to figure out a way for Republicans to show how much they hate government other than the N.R.A. endorsement. Maybe I should be rooting for the Club for Growth to be a more effective voice within the Republican Party.Can guns really be a winning issue for Democrats in a year when Republicans are attacking your party over inflation, rising gas prices and not meeting the basic needs of American families?I think voters are emotionally moved by the slaughter of innocents. And I think they find it a little weird when Democrats who claim to care about this don’t actually talk about it.We live in an era where authenticity is the coin of the realm. You just have to show voters who you are. I don’t think there’s any more potent means by which to translate who you are, and what you care about, than this issue. I think when you leave this out when you list your priorities as a candidate, it causes voters to scratch their heads a bit.What grade would you give the Biden administration on this issue?The administration could have moved faster on executive actions and the appointment of a new A.T.F. director. I want them to keep going. There’s still more regulatory and executive action that this administration can take and more things the team can do to use the bully pulpit to make sure this is an election issue.Would you give the administration a grade?No.A number of gun violence prevention organizations have called on Mr. Biden to open a White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention. Do you think that would make a difference?I do. It’s become clear to me we need a specific, driving focus on gun violence. The president is clearly personally committed to this issue, but he’s stretched thin due to myriad international and domestic crises. He would be best served by a high-level senior official who wakes up every day and coordinates the issue.After another mass shooting like the one in Buffalo, do you find yourself becoming resigned to the idea that nothing can be done on gun violence?I’ve studied enough great social change movements to know they often take decades to succeed. It was a full 10 years from the shooting of James Brady to the passage of the Brady handgun bill. I think I am part of one of these great social change movements, and I’m confident that you have to put up with a lot of failures before you’re met with success.I also don’t think democracy can allow for 80 percent of the American people to not get their way, forever. Eventually we will be able to break through. We just have not been able to find that pathway yet.This is an exhausting issue to work on, but I have this very deep sense that I will see my time in public service as a failure if I don’t meet the expectations of those parents in Sandy Hook, and Hartford and Bridgeport. And fear is a powerful motivator. More

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    For Hochul, Shooting in Buffalo Is a Hometown Tragedy

    The governor grew up in the Buffalo suburbs and lives in the city now. The shooting has taken on political overtones in the 2022 race for governor of New York.Hours after an 18-year-old gunman killed 10 people in a Buffalo supermarket, Gov. Kathy Hochul convened a news conference just blocks away.She mourned for the tight-knit community and for the lives shattered by the cruelty of white supremacy. She spoke of the danger of hatred circulating online. And she talked knowingly of the neighborhood and the streets she had walked — and how it all hit so close to home.Ms. Hochul grew up in the Buffalo suburbs and lives with her husband in the city’s downtown area, less than four miles from the East Side, the mostly Black neighborhood where a white gunman orchestrated one of the deadliest racist massacres in recent memory.“This is personal” Ms. Hochul said a day later at True Bethel Baptist Church, a Black church one mile away from the site of the shooting. “You’ve hurt our family.”In recent days, Ms. Hochul has called out tech companies that she said were not doing enough to stop the spread of online hate that motivated the gunman, and denounced Washington for its failure to impose what she said should be common-sense gun control laws.On Tuesday, she appeared with President Biden as he visited Buffalo, a postindustrial city in western New York on the shores of Lake Erie. And in the coming days, Ms. Hochul has hinted that she plans to unveil a new gun safety package.With the Democratic primary for governor six weeks away, and Ms. Hochul running for her first full term, the shooting has presented the governor with both an opportunity to engage with voters in a moment of crisis and a challenge to demonstrate whether she is up to the task.From Opinion: The Buffalo ShootingCommentary from Times Opinion on the massacre at a grocery store in a predominantly Black neighborhood in Buffalo.The Times Editorial Board: The mass shooting in Buffalo was an extreme expression of a political worldview that has become increasingly central to the G.O.P.’s identity.Jamelle Bouie: G.O.P. politicians and conservative media personalities did not create the idea of the “great replacement,” but they have adopted it.Paul Krugman: There is a direct line from Republicans’ embrace of crank economics, to Jan. 6, to Buffalo.Sway: In the latest episode of her podcast, Kara Swisher hosts a discussion on the role of internet platforms like 4chan, Facebook and Twitch in the attack.Indeed, the shooting, which law enforcement officials said was motivated by a white supremacist ideology fanned by some factions of the country’s right wing, has swiftly taken on political overtones in the escalating race for governor of New York, where gun violence has become a central issue.One of Ms. Hochul’s primary opponents, Representative Thomas R. Suozzi, was in Buffalo when the shooting occurred. He immediately used the event as a political cudgel, proclaiming on Twitter, “Hochul refuses to make fighting crime a priority. I will.”Mr. Suozzi, a centrist Democrat from Long Island, later issued a statement that took issue with Ms. Hochul’s record in Congress and endorsement during that time by the National Rifle Association, which has vehemently opposed gun control measures, including background checks.“That is not leadership,” said Mr. Suozzi, who has received an F rating from the N.R.A. “It is hypocritical and it does nothing to protect New Yorkers from this kind of tragedy happening again.”Ms. Hochul, at a Sunday prayer service in Buffalo, lives less than four miles from the scene of the shooting.Gabriela Bhaskar/The New York TimesRepresentative Lee Zeldin, a Suffolk County Republican who is running to be his party’s nominee for governor, issued a statement over the weekend that pushed for the reinstatement of the death penalty in New York State, which was declared unconstitutional nearly two decades ago.“Those who commit fatal hate crimes, acts of terrorism and other extreme violence should be brought to justice, and in some of these cases, the only fitting form of justice is the death penalty,” said Mr. Zeldin, who, visited the shooting scene on Monday to pay his respects to those killed, but did not take questions from reporters and avoided overtly political remarks.But for Ms. Hochul, the shooting has more obvious resonance.“I think the governor feels it on a whole different level, because she’s passed by the Tops, if not been in the Tops,” said Darius G. Pridgen, a pastor at the True Bethel Baptist church.In the days since the shooting, the governor has visited churches and gone on television and radio, giving interviews to nearly a dozen outlets, from MSNBC and CNN to Buffalo’s long-running morning radio show, “Janet & Nick in the Morning.”She has highlighted the state’s existing gun safety laws, seizing the opportunity to emphasize actions she has already taken as governor, such as an interstate task force that she assembled last year to tackle the illegal flow of guns.And she has denounced the killings as “white supremacist acts of terrorism,” calling on white Americans to take a stand against racism.“To say that she is taking this personally is to say the least,” said Jeremy Zellner, the chair of the Democratic Party in Erie County.The governor has lived with her husband in a condo in the waterfront area of the city’s downtown area since 2013, shortly after she lost her seat in Congress — though she often splits her time between Albany and New York City since becoming governor in August.Ms. Hochul got her start in politics as a member of the town board in Hamburg, a suburban town just south of Buffalo that is overwhelmingly white. While she briefly represented the East Side as clerk of Erie County, the House district she was elected to in 2011 was largely rural and suburban and did not include Buffalo.Ms. Hochul, at a news conference on Sunday, once represented the East Side of Buffalo when she was Erie County’s clerk.Malik Rainey for The New York TimesShe later helped promote economic development projects and job training programs aimed at the city as lieutenant governor to former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo. As governor, she visited the East Side as recently as March to tout the construction of new affordable housing.One of Ms. Hochul’s major priorities for the region involves addressing the racial and economic inequalities that were exacerbated by a stretch of highway that was built through the East Side. Ms. Hochul is spearheading a plan to reconnect neighborhoods that were divided by the Kensington Expressway over 60 years ago, saying last month that there was $1 billion available in federal and state funds for a project to potentially cover the expressway, or part of it.“She’s from the suburbs, but in no way, shape or form a stranger to that part of the city,” said State Senator Sean Ryan, a Democrat who represents parts of the city’s West Side. “She’s a known commodity in terms of boots on the ground in neighborhood centers.”The mass shooting came as New York’s gubernatorial primary, scheduled for June 28, looms large.Ms. Hochul has amassed a gargantuan $20 million war chest and a huge polling advantage, but her campaign has faltered in recent weeks, battered by the arrest of her lieutenant governor, Brian Benjamin, on corruption charges, and criticism of a deal she secured to subsidize the construction of a new football stadium for the Buffalo Bills with taxpayer money.Mirroring many Democrats nationwide, Ms. Hochul had recently pivoted her attention to the likelihood that the Supreme Court would overturn Roe v. Wade, radically redrawing the national landscape for women’s health care. Ms. Hochul has begun speaking more extensively about making New York a refuge for reproductive rights, vowing to enshrine abortion rights into state law and using her executive authority to create a $35 million fund to support abortion providers.Her campaign released a television ad this week that highlighted her commitment on the issue, even as the shooting’s aftermath overtook most of her public schedule.And on Monday, Ms. Hochul took the stage with Mr. Biden at a community center, seeking to draw parallels between Buffalo and the president’s hometown, Scranton, Pa. She said both leaders were used to their native cities failing to get the “respect” they deserved.“I’m a daughter of Buffalo, and I’m so proud to be governor,” she said ahead of the president’s remarks. “But right now I’m a daughter of Buffalo.” More

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    Your Tuesday Briefing: Russia’s Faltering Campaign

    Plus climate’s role in Australia’s upcoming election and a Covid-19 protest at Peking University.Good morning. We’re covering Russia’s struggling military campaign, Australia’s halting recovery from bush fires and a Covid-19 protest at Peking University.A damaged apartment complex in Kharkiv.Finbarr O’Reilly for The New York TimesRussia scales back its charge eastAfter a series of military setbacks, Moscow now appears to be focusing on a narrow objective: widening its holdings in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbas. But even there Russia may be forced to scale back its ambition to take most of eastern Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War.Russia still controls the wide swath of southern Ukraine it seized early in the war, including Kherson, and continues to impose a naval blockade that is strangling the Ukrainian economy. But Russia has not secured a major strategic gain in the east.On Sunday, the Ukrainian military released a video purporting to show a small group of soldiers reaching the Russian border near Kharkiv — a powerful symbolic moment. Russian forces had to retreat from the city, Ukraine’s second-largest, earlier this month.NATO: The alliance is preparing to fast-track admission for Finland and Sweden, which formally announced that they will seek membership. On Monday, NATO forces from 14 countries held a large, long-planned military exercise on Russia’s doorstep in Estonia, a tough Kremlin critic.Vladimir Putin: The Russian president is increasingly isolated. He met with his five closest allies on Monday; only Belarus spoke up in support of Putin’s war.Soldiers: Russia has likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing it to draw from private companies and militias, the institute reported. But to many Russians, defeat remains inconceivable.Other updates:As the U.S. and Europe seek to deprive Russia of oil and gas income, their leaders hope Qatar can help fill the void.After 32 years, McDonald’s is selling its Russian business, once a symbol of globalization.Olga Koutseridi, a home cook from Mariupol who now lives in Texas, is fighting to preserve her city’s distinctive cuisine.Jamie Robinson, who lost everything during the 2019 fires, has been struggling to rebuild his house.Matthew Abbott for The New York TimesAustralia’s bush fire reckoningIn late 2019 and early 2020, fires tore through southeastern Australia. Barely one in 10 families in the affected region of southeastern Australia have finished rebuilding, local government data shows. Most have not even started.The halting recovery efforts could have profound political import. The ruling conservative coalition holds a one-seat majority in Parliament and is already expected to lose some urban seats.The once-conservative rural towns south of Sydney could also defect. Angered by a lack of government support after the bush fires, they may vote for the opposition Labor party in the Australian election on Saturday.Background: The record-setting “black summer” bush fires killed 34 people, destroyed 3,500 homes and burned more than 60 million acres over two months.Analysis: Our Sydney bureau chief, Damien Cave, spoke to the Climate Forward newsletter about climate’s role in the Australian election.The U.S.: Half of all addresses in the lower 48 states are at risk of wildfire damage. Climate change will make the U.S. even more combustible.Peking University has a history of occasional organized unrest.Thomas Peter/ReutersPeking University’s Covid protestStudents at one of China’s most elite academic institutions protested strict Covid-19 lockdown requirements on Sunday, arguing that the measures were poorly communicated and unfair.Students are upset that they cannot order food and are required to isolate, while teachers and their families can leave the campus freely. On an online forum, one student called the policy contradictory. Another said it was “a joke indeed.”In response to student frustrations, the authorities tried to put up a wall separating students from faculty and staff. More than 200 people left their dorms to protest.Reaction: The government quickly moved to censor videos and photos from the brief protest, which quickly spread on China’s internet.Analysis: Peking University, which has a history of occasional organized unrest, holds a special place in Beijing’s cultural and political life. The demonstration underscores a growing challenge for officials, who must assuage anger while fighting the highly infectious Omicron variant.In other news:Evidence is growing that Covid-19 has mutated to infect people repeatedly, sometimes within months, a potentially long-term pattern.THE LATEST NEWSWorld NewsTensions were high in the Somali capital ahead of Sunday’s presidential election. Malin Fezehai for The New York TimesPresident Biden approved plans to redeploy hundreds of Special Operations forces inside Somalia and target Al Shabab leaders. Conservatives kept Germany’s most populous state, a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his party.President Emmanuel Macron of France named a new, left-leaning and climate-focused prime minister: Élisabeth Borne. Currently the minister of labor, she will be the second woman to occupy the position.Buffalo ShootingInvestigators searched for evidence at the supermarket.Brendan Mcdermid/ReutersHere are live updates from the Saturday mass shooting in upstate New York.The accused shooter, an 18-year-old white man, had previously been investigated for a violent threat. He had planned to attack a second target.Officials released the full list of victims, almost all of whom were Black.The gunman published a hate-filled racist screed before the attack, connecting it to the livestreamed murder of 51 people by a gunman at two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2019.Some right-wing politicians have helped promote “replacement theory,” the racist ideology that the gunman espoused. In recent years, other perpetrators of mass shootings have also cited the idea, popularized on Tucker Carlson’s Fox News show.In other news: A gunman killed one person and critically wounded four others at a Southern California church before congregants overpowered him and tied him up. He has been charged with murder.A Morning Read“I keep telling the other sisters, ‘Get on TikTok!’” Sister Monica Clare said. “‘If we’re hidden, we’re going to die out.’”Daniel Dorsa for The New York TimesNuns are joining TikTok, offering a window into their cloistered experiences. “We’re not all grim old ladies reading the Bible,” one said.Lives lived: Pandit Shiv Kumar Sharma single-handedly elevated the santoor, a 100-string instrument little known outside Kashmir, into a prominent component of Hindustani classical music. He died last week at 84.Russia-Ukraine War: Key DevelopmentsCard 1 of 4Mariupol steel plant. More

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    The Bloody Crossroads Where Conspiracy Theories and Guns Meet

    Gail Collins: Bret, you and I live in a state that has some of the toughest gun laws in the country. But that didn’t stop a teenager with a history of making threats from getting his hands on a semiautomatic rifle and mowing down 10 people at a supermarket in a Black neighborhood in Buffalo on Saturday.Bret Stephens: It’s sickening. And part of a grotesque pattern: the racist massacre in Charleston in 2015, the antisemitic massacre in Pittsburgh in 2018, the anti-Hispanic massacre in El Paso in 2019 and so many others. There’s a bloody crossroads where easy access to weapons and increasingly commonplace conspiracy theories meet.I have diminishing faith that the usual calls for more gun control can do much good in a country with way more than 300 million guns in private hands. Please tell me I’m wrong.Gail: Sane gun control won’t solve the problem, but it’ll help turn things around — criminals and mentally ill people will have a harder time getting their hands on weapons. And the very fact that we could enact restrictions on firearm purchases would be a sign that the nation’s whole attitude was getting healthier.Bret: Wish I could share your optimism, but I’ve come to think of meaningful gun control in the United States as the ultimate Sisyphean task. Gun control at the state level doesn’t work because guns can move easily across state lines. Gun control at the federal level doesn’t work because the votes in Congress will never be there. I personally favor repealing the Second Amendment, but politically that’s another nonstarter. And the same Republican Party that opposes gun control is also winking at, if not endorsing, the sinister Great Replacement conspiracy theory — the idea that liberals/Jews/the deep state are conspiring to replace whites with nonwhite immigrants — that appears to have motivated the accused shooter in Buffalo.Bottom line: I’m heartbroken for the victims of this massacre. And I’m heartbroken for a country that seems increasingly powerless to do anything about it. And that’s just one item on our accumulating inventory of crippling problems.Gail: You know, we thought the country was going to be obsessed with nothing but inflation this election year. But instead, it’s hot-button social issues like guns, and of course we’ve spent the last few weeks reacting to the Supreme Court’s upcoming abortion decision, which probably won’t actually be out for weeks.Bret: And may not end up being what we were led to expect by the leaked draft of Justice Alito’s opinion. I’m still holding out hope — faint hope, because I fear that the leaking of the decision will make the conservative justices, including Justice Gorsuch and Chief Justice Roberts, less open to finding a compromise ruling that doesn’t overturn Roe.Gail: Is it possible things will get even more intense when it’s announced? And what’s your take on what we’ve seen so far?Bret: Much more intense and largely for the reasons you laid out in your terrific column last week: Abortion rights are about much more than abortion rights. They’re also about sex and all that goes with it: pleasure, autonomy, repression, male responsibility for the children they father and the great “who decides” questions of modern democracy. The justices will have to gird for more protests outside their homes.What do you think? And is there any chance of crafting an abortion rights bill that could get more than 50 votes in the Senate?Gail: Well, maybe if everybody hunkered down and tried to come up with something that would lure a few Republicans who say they support abortion rights like Susan Collins. Many Democrats don’t want to water down their bill and really there’s not much point in making the effort since they’d instantly run into the dreaded filibuster rule.Bret: Wouldn’t it have helped if Democrats had devised a bill that a majority could get behind, rather than one that had no chance of winning because it went well beyond Roe v. Wade by banning nearly all restrictions on abortions?Gail: Given the dispiriting reality of Senate life — 60 votes, Joe Manchin, etc., etc. — I can see why Chuck Schumer has pretty much given up the fight to change anything on that front and is just focused on drawing attention to the whole abortion issue in this year’s elections.Bret: Shortsighted. Democrats need to secure their moderate flank, including lots of voters who want to preserve abortion rights but have strong moral reservations about late-term abortions. It just makes the party seem beholden to its most progressive, least pragmatic flank, which is at the heart of the Democrats’ political problem.Gail: Now whatever happens isn’t going to directly affect folks who live in states like New York. But when I look at states that have already passed abortion bans in anticipation of a court decision, I do worry this won’t be the end of the story — that the legislatures might move further to ban at least some kinds of contraceptives, too.Am I being overly paranoid?Bret: It’s hard for me to imagine that happening, unless Republicans also intend to repeal the 19th Amendment to keep women from throwing them out of political office. Even most conservative women in America today probably don’t want to return to the fingers-crossed method of birth control.Can I go back to something we said earlier? How do you feel about the protests outside of the justices’ homes?Gail: Pretty much all in the details. The Supreme Court members have lifetime appointments and they’re immune from the normal constraints on public officials who have to run for re-election or who work for a chief executive who has to run for re-election.So I support people’s right to make their feelings known in the very few ways they have available. As long, of course, as the demonstrators are restrained and the justices and their families are provided with very good security.You?Bret: It seems like a really bad idea for a whole bunch of reasons. If the hope of the protesters is to get the justices to change their vote by making their home life unpleasant, it probably accomplishes the opposite: People generally don’t respond well to what they perceive as harassment. Those homes are also occupied by spouses and children who should have the right to remain private people. It’s also a pretty glaring temptation to some fanatic who might think that he can “save Roe” through an act of violence. And, of course, two can play the game: What happens when creepy far-right groups decide to stage protests outside the homes of Justices Kagan and Sotomayor and soon-to-be Justice Jackson?Gail: Well, I guess we’ll get to have this fight again. Meanwhile, let me switch to something even more, um, divisive. Baby formula!Bret: I wish I could joke about it, but it’s a seriously unfunny story.Gail: A plant that manufactures brands like Similac was shut down after concerns were raised about possible contamination. Things will eventually go back to normal, at least I hope they do, but in the meantime the supply dropped by about half.Lots to look into on how this happened. But it’s a reminder that parents have to rely on four companies for almost all the nation’s formula supply. Which then should remind us of the virtue of antitrust actions that break up mega-corporations.Bret: One lesson here is that when the F.D.A. decides to urge a “voluntary recall” of something as critical as baby formula, as it effectively did in February, it had better be sure of its reasons and think through the entire chain of potential consequences to public health. Another lesson is that when our regulations are so extreme that we won’t allow the formula made in Europe to be sold here commercially, something is seriously wrong with those regulations.Gail: I’ll go along with you about the imports from Europe, after noting that importation from Canada was restricted by the Trump administration.Bret: We will mark that down on the ever-expanding list of things we hate about Trump.Gail: However, recalling formula that’s given bacterial infections — some fatal — to babies doesn’t seem all that radical to me.Bret: I agree, of course, but it isn’t clear the bacteria came from the plant in question and surely there must have been a way to deal with the problem that didn’t create an even bigger problem.The broader point, I think, is that our zero-tolerance approach to many kinds of risk — whether it’s the possible contamination of formula or shutting down schools in reaction to Covid — is sometimes the riskiest approach of all. How did the most advanced capitalist country in the world become so incapable of weighing risks? Is it the ever-present fear of lawsuits or something else?Gail: Part of the problem is a general — and bipartisan — eagerness to restrict imports on stuff American companies produce.Bret: Am I hearing openness on your part to a U.S.-E.U. free trade agreement? That would solve a lot of our supply-chain problems and annoy protectionists in both parties.Gail: Yeah, but the last thing we ought to do is respond to an event like the formula shortage by saying, “Oh gosh, no more federal oversight of imports!” Really, there’s dangerous stuff out there and we need to be protected from it.Bret: Well, of course.Gail: Let’s move on to the upcoming elections. Really fascinated by that Pennsylvania Senate primary. Particularly on the Republican side, where we’re seeing a super surge from Kathy Barnette, a Black, very-very-conservative-to-reactionary activist. The other leaders are still Trump’s favorite, Mehmet Oz, and David McCormick, former head of the world’s largest hedge fund.Bret: Nice to see a genuinely competitive race.Gail: Barnette is doing very well despite — or maybe because of — her record of anti-Muslim rhetoric.A pretty appalling trio by my lights, but do you have a favorite?Bret: I’m in favor of the least crazy candidate on the ballot.Gail: Excellent standard.Bret: The problem the G.O.P. has had for some time now is that in many states and districts, not to mention the presidential contest, the candidate most likely to win a primary is least likely to win a general election. Republican primaries are like holding a heavy metal air guitar contest in order to compete for a place in a jazz ensemble, if that makes any sense.Gail: Yeah, although that particular music contest does sound sorta fascinating.Bret: Question for you, Gail: Do you really think President Biden is going to run for re-election? Truly, honestly? And can you see Kamala Harris as his successor?Gail: Well, I’m of the school that says Biden shouldn’t announce he’s not running and embrace lame duckism too early. But lately I have been wondering if he’s actually going to try to march on through another term.Which would be bad. The age thing aside, the country’s gotten past the moment when all people wanted in a chief executive was a not-crazy person to calm things down.Bret: If Biden decides to run, he’ll lose in a landslide to anyone not named Trump. Then again, if he decides to run, then he’ll also be tempting Trump to seek the Republican nomination.Gail: If Kamala Harris runs we will have to … see what the options are.Bret: I’ve always thought Harris would be a great secretary general of the United Nations. When does that job come open again?The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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    Election Day 2021: What to Watch in Tuesday’s Elections

    Most of the political world’s attention on Tuesday will be focused on Virginia, where former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat, is trying to return to his old office in a run against Glenn Youngkin, a wealthy Republican business executive. Polls show the race is a dead heat. And the themes of the contest — with Mr. McAuliffe trying relentlessly to tie Mr. Youngkin to former President Donald J. Trump, and Mr. Youngkin focusing on how racial inequality is taught in schools, among other cultural issues — have only amplified the election’s potential as a national bellwether. The results will be closely studied by both parties for clues about what to expect in the 2022 midterms.While the Virginia race is Tuesday’s marquee matchup, there are other notable elections taking place. Voters in many major American cities will choose their next mayor, and some will weigh in on hotly contested ballot measures, including on the issue of policing. There’s another governor’s race in New Jersey, too. Here is what to watch in some of the key contests that will provide the most detailed and textured look yet at where voters stand more than nine months into the Biden administration.Republicans are hoping Mr. Youngkin can prevail by cutting into Democratic margins in suburban Northern Virginia and turning out voters who remain motivated by Mr. Trump.Carlos Bernate for The New York TimesThe Virginia governor’s race is seen as a bellwetherDemocrats have won Virginia in every presidential contest since 2008. Last year, it wasn’t particularly close. Mr. Biden won by 10 percentage points.But Virginia also has a history of bucking the party of a new president — the state swung to the G.O.P. in 2009, during former President Barack Obama’s first year in office — and Republicans hope Mr. Youngkin has found a formula for success in the post-Trump era.To prevail, Mr. Youngkin needs to cut into the margins in suburban Northern Virginia, where voters have made the state increasingly Democratic, while also turning out a Republican base that remains motivated by Mr. Trump.His playbook has focused heavily on education, attacking Mr. McAuliffe for a debate remark that parents should not be directing what schools teach and capitalizing on a broader conservative movement against schools teaching about systemic racism. The result: Education has been the top issue in the race, according to an October Washington Post poll, giving Republicans the edge on a topic that has traditionally favored Democrats.Mr. McAuliffe has aggressively linked Mr. Youngkin to Mr. Trump, who endorsed the Republican but never traveled to Virginia to campaign for him. If Mr. Youngkin loses, it will showcase the G.O.P.’s ongoing challenge in being associated with Mr. Trump, even without Mr. Trump on the ballot. But if Mr. McAuliffe loses, it will intensify pressure on Democrats to develop a new, proactive message.Control of the Virginia House of Delegates is also up for grabs. For now, Democrats have an edge of 55-45 seats that they built during the Trump years.In the New Jersey governor’s race, the Democratic incumbent, Philip D. Murphy, is up for re-election. Polls have shown Mr. Murphy ahead, but Mr. Biden’s weakening job approval rating in the solidly Democratic state — which stood at 43 percent in a recent Monmouth poll — is a cause of concern. The results will be watched for evidence of how much of the erosion in Mr. Biden’s support has seeped down-ballot.India Walton, left, has the support of progressives like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in her bid to be the next mayor of Buffalo, N.Y.Libby March for The New York TimesBig mayoralties: Boston, Buffalo, Atlanta and moreIt is not the biggest city with a mayor’s race on Tuesday, but the City Hall battle in Buffalo, N.Y., may be the most fascinating.India Walton, who would be the first socialist to lead a major American city in decades, defeated the incumbent Democratic mayor, Byron Brown, in the June primary. But Mr. Brown is now running a write-in campaign. .css-1xzcza9{list-style-type:disc;padding-inline-start:1em;}.css-3btd0c{font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.375rem;color:#333;margin-bottom:0.78125rem;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-3btd0c{font-size:1.0625rem;line-height:1.5rem;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}}.css-3btd0c strong{font-weight:600;}.css-3btd0c em{font-style:italic;}.css-1kpebx{margin:0 auto;font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.125rem;line-height:1.3125rem;color:#121212;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-family:nyt-cheltenham,georgia,’times new roman’,times,serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.375rem;line-height:1.625rem;}@media (min-width:740px){#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-size:1.6875rem;line-height:1.875rem;}}@media (min-width:740px){.css-1kpebx{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.4375rem;}}.css-1gtxqqv{margin-bottom:0;}.css-1g3vlj0{font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.375rem;color:#333;margin-bottom:0.78125rem;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-1g3vlj0{font-size:1.0625rem;line-height:1.5rem;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}}.css-1g3vlj0 strong{font-weight:600;}.css-1g3vlj0 em{font-style:italic;}.css-1g3vlj0{margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0.25rem;}.css-19zsuqr{display:block;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}.css-12vbvwq{background-color:white;border:1px solid #e2e2e2;width:calc(100% – 40px);max-width:600px;margin:1.5rem auto 1.9rem;padding:15px;box-sizing:border-box;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-12vbvwq{padding:20px;width:100%;}}.css-12vbvwq:focus{outline:1px solid #e2e2e2;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-12vbvwq{border:none;padding:10px 0 0;border-top:2px solid #121212;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-rdoyk0{-webkit-transform:rotate(0deg);-ms-transform:rotate(0deg);transform:rotate(0deg);}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-eb027h{max-height:300px;overflow:hidden;-webkit-transition:none;transition:none;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-5gimkt:after{content:’See more’;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-6mllg9{opacity:1;}.css-qjk116{margin:0 auto;overflow:hidden;}.css-qjk116 strong{font-weight:700;}.css-qjk116 em{font-style:italic;}.css-qjk116 a{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-thickness:1px;text-decoration-thickness:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:visited{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}Ms. Walton has won the backing of progressives, such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and some party leaders, like Senator Chuck Schumer, but other prominent Democrats have stayed neutral, most notably Gov. Kathy Hochul, a lifelong resident of the Buffalo region.Policing has been a major issue. Though Ms. Walton has distanced herself from wanting to reduce police funding, Mr. Brown attacked her on the issue in a television ad.In Boston, the runoff puts two City Council members, Michelle Wu and Annissa Essaibi George, against each other, with Ms. Wu running as the progressive. Ms. Wu, who is backed by Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, finished in first place in the primary.In New York City, Eric Adams, the borough president of Brooklyn and a Democrat, is expected to win the mayor’s race and has already fashioned himself as a national figure. “I am the face of the new Democratic Party,” Mr. Adams declared after his June primary win.In Miami, Mayor Francis Suarez, a rare big-city Republican mayor, is heavily favored to win re-election and is lined up to become the president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, giving him a national platform.And in Atlanta, a crowded field of 14 candidates, including the City Council president, Felicia Moore, is expected to lead to a runoff as former Mayor Kasim Reed attempts to make a comeback.In Minneapolis, voters will decide whether to replace the Police Department with a new Department of Public Safety.Jenn Ackerman for The New York TimesThe future of policing is front and centerOne recurring theme in municipal races is policing, as communities grapple with the “defund the police” slogan that swept the country following the police killing of George Floyd last year. The debate is raging inside the Democratic Party over how much to overhaul law enforcement — and over how to talk about such an overhaul.Perhaps nowhere is the issue more central than in Minneapolis, the city where Mr. Floyd was killed, sparking civil unrest across the country. Voters there will decide on a measure to replace the troubled Minneapolis Police Department with a new Department of Public Safety.Mayor Jacob Frey, who is up for re-election, has opposed that measure and pushed for a more incremental approach. His challengers, among them Sheila Nezhad, want a more aggressive approach.Policing is a key issue not only in the Buffalo mayor’s race, but also in mayoral contests in Seattle, Atlanta and in Cleveland, where an amendment that would overhaul how the city’s police department operates is on the ballot as well.The mayor’s race in Cleveland puts Justin Bibb, a 34-year-old political newcomer, against Kevin Kelley, the City Council president. Mr. Bibb supports the police amendment and Mr. Kelley opposes it.Shontel Brown, a Democrat, is expected to win a special election for a House seat in Cleveland.Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesHouse races and Pennsylvania’s court battleThere are two special elections for House races in Ohio, with Shontel Brown, a Democratic Cuyahoga County Council member, expected to win a heavily Democratic seat in Cleveland. Mike Carey, a longtime Republican coal lobbyist, is favored in a district that sprawls across a dozen counties.Mr. Carey faces Allison Russo, a Democrat endorsed by Mr. Biden. Mr. Carey’s margin in a seat that Mr. Trump carried by more than 14 points last year will be another valuable indicator of the political environment.In Florida, a primary is being held for the seat of Representative Alcee Hastings, who died earlier this year. The winner will be favored in a January special election.The only statewide races happening in Pennsylvania on Tuesday are for the courts. The most closely watched contest is for the State Supreme Court, which features two appeals court judges, the Republican Kevin Brobson and the Democrat Maria McLaughlin. Democrats currently hold a 5-2 majority on the court and the seat being vacated was held by a Republican, so the result will not swing control.But millions of dollars in advertising are pouring into the state, a sign not just of the increasing politicization of judicial contests, but also of the state’s role as a top presidential battleground. More

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    Buffalo Mayor's Race: Rematch Between India Walton and Byron Brown

    A victory in the Buffalo mayor’s race on Tuesday by Ms. Walton would make history on several fronts. The incumbent mayor, Mr. Brown, has mounted a write-in campaign against her.BUFFALO, N.Y. — If Byron Brown succeeds in his frantic quest for a fifth term as mayor of Buffalo, he may well have a rubber stamp to thank.First elected in 2005, Mr. Brown, 63, is currently running a write-in campaign against India Walton, a self-described Democratic socialist who stunned the political world in June by winning the Democratic primary here.A general-election victory by Ms. Walton would be history-making on several fronts: She would be the first socialist to lead a major American city in decades, and the first woman — and first Black woman — to lead Buffalo, New York’s second-largest city.Ms. Walton’s early success, however, did not assure her a hearty embrace by state party leadership, as Gov. Kathy Hochul and Jay S. Jacobs, the chairman of the New York State Democratic Committee, declined to endorse her, even as the race entered its final days.That lack of unified, institutional support has given hope to Mr. Brown, who is considered a formidable challenger because of his long presence on the city’s political scene.Still, Ms. Walton’s is the only name that will be printed on ballots; outnumbered in a heavily Democratic town, Republicans are not mounting a candidate nor are any other parties.As a write-in candidate, Mr. Brown faces numerous logistical challenges, including trying to get voters to correctly mark his name on ballots; serious misspellings could disqualify any votes intended for him.So Mr. Brown’s campaign has purchased tens of thousands of ink stamps bearing the mayor’s name, at a cost of approximately $100,000, and has distributed them to a variety of supporters across the city, according to the candidate. Under New York election law, using such a rubber stamp is legal. Mr. Brown has been aggressive about leaning on labor allies — including the powerful Civil Service Employees Association and the Transport Workers Union of America — to get the stamps to voters.Ms. Walton, 39, has been trying to press her inherent advantage of being the only candidate on the ballot, and has employed the help of progressive stars in the party, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who traveled to Buffalo on the first day of early voting to stump for her.“We want to show that postindustrial cities like the city of Buffalo can thrive with progressive policies,” Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, who represents parts of Queens and the Bronx, said in an interview with the Buffalo television station WIVB.“When you talk about capitalism, socialism, et cetera — these are very high-minded debates,” she said. “I think what’s important is we say ‘Where’s the beef?’ What are the policies each candidate is actually proposing?”The congresswoman’s rhetoric underscored some of the challenges that Ms. Walton faces in the general election, including a nonstop battering from Mr. Brown, who has argued that Ms. Walton is inexperienced and that her proposed policies are too extreme for Buffalo.Those attacks have been echoed by some Republicans who have found themselves in the peculiar role as potential kingmakers in a city in which their votes often have little impact.Ms. Walton, a registered nurse making her first run for public office, says that Mr. Brown — a former leader of the state party — has done little to benefit regular Buffalo residents in his four terms, favoring instead deep-pocketed developers who have built a series of projects along the city’s Lake Erie waterfront.She’s been assisted in making that argument by groups like the Working Families Party, which has regularly opposed moderate Democrats like Mr. Brown in favor of younger and more progressive candidates like Ms. Walton, whose campaigns are often invigorated by social justice issues.Ms. Walton has also drawn the support of other prominent national progressives, including Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, as well as downstate figures like the New York City public advocate, Jumaane Williams, who is now officially exploring a run for governor.In the campaign’s closing weeks, Ms. Walton has seen the pace of endorsements from establishment figures pick up, with both of the state’s U.S. senators — Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand — coming out for her.Still, Ms. Hochul’s lack of backing has been a glaring development considering that she is a lifelong resident of the Buffalo area, as well as a candidate for governor who will need to woo the very same left flank of the party that Ms. Walton has galvanized.And in mid-October, when being pressed as to why he would not publicly support Ms. Walton, Mr. Jacobs likened it to a scenario whereby the party would abstain from supporting David Duke, the former leader of the KKK, if Mr. Duke were to win a Democratic primary. His remarks drew a furious response from many elected Democrats, and calls for Mr. Jacobs’s resignation.Mr. Brown represents a more centrist faction of the New York state party, and corporate and business groups have been pushing for his re-election, including real estate interests, which have been pouring money into the campaign via independent expenditure groups.Mr. Brown, who was the city’s first Black mayor, has been unapologetic about accepting the support of Republicans, who are outnumbered nearly two to one in Erie County.Facing political oblivion, Mr. Brown has also mounted a much more aggressive stance in the general election campaign, hitting multiple polling stations last week, and rallying support from local leaders.During the early voting period, which ended Sunday, the Brown campaign also set up “voter education stations” near polling locations to offer guidance on how to write in Mr. Brown’s name.The vigor of Mr. Brown’s write-in campaign stands in stark contrast to his seemingly ambivalent primary bid, when he refused to debate Ms. Walton or truly acknowledge her challenge, apparently assuming that his name recognition and 16 years in office would carry the day.He was wrong: Ms. Walton won handily, riding a surge of support in middle-class neighborhoods, as well as progressive enclaves where her message of racial and economic equity played well.At a fractious debate last week, Mr. Brown blamed his poor performance in the primary on his being distracted by the coronavirus pandemic.He also directly challenged Ms. Walton’s political bona fides, accusing her of wanting to implement ideas that would derail progress in Buffalo, which has seen a surprising increase in its population over the last decade.“I don’t see Ms. Walton as a Democrat,” Mr. Brown said. “I think her ideas for the city of Buffalo are bad at best, and unworkable.”Ms. Walton quickly countered, noting that she had the party line on the ballot. “I won the Democratic primary. Secondly, I am a self-avowed democratic socialist. The first word in that is ‘Democrat.’”While the Buffalo race has garnered widespread attention in an off-year election, there is a very real possibility that Election Day will not result in a quick victory for either candidate.Officials will not be able to declare a winner on Tuesday unless Ms. Walton wins a majority of votes, said Jeremy Zellner, the chairman of the Erie County Democratic Party and a supporter of Ms. Walton who also serves as the Democratic commissioner of the Erie County Board of Elections.If the majority of ballots — particularly a slim majority — are marked with write-in candidates instead, the election could quickly pivot from polling stations to courtrooms, he said, as lawyers begin to challenge whether such ballots were valid or marked with discernible names.(Potentially complicating matters is a third candidate, Benjamin Carlisle, a former Democrat who is also running a write-in campaign.)Also adding to the uncertainty are absentee ballots which will not be counted until at least mid-November, Mr. Zellner said. He added that minor misspellings on ballots would likely not be disqualifying, though he expected many could be carefully scrutinized.“It basically has to do with the intent of the voter,” he said. “If someone writes ‘Gonzo Smith,’ that’s one thing. But if it is ‘B-I-R-O-N,’ most likely that will count” for Mr. Brown.Ms. Walton has been making sure voters know her name as well, telling her personal story with its compelling arc. She had a child as a young teenager, and later earned a GED while pregnant with twins, before serving as a representative for SEIU 1199, the health care union.Her platform in the primary leaned heavily on the notion that the city — which has had pockets of economic vitality under Mr. Brown — should share the wealth, and address its longtime problems with affordable housing, a subpar school system and income disparity, including more than a third of the city’s children living in poverty.She has also distanced herself from any suggestion that she wants to reduce funding to the police, something Mr. Brown has repeatedly accused her of.In the debate, Ms. Walton seemed to be striving to present herself as an able and moderate successor to Mr. Brown, rather than a left-wing alternative, saying she wanted to offer “viable solutions for the profound challenges we face.”“I am resilient,” she said. “Success is what you define it to be for yourself. I am a success. And I am ready.” More