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      US orders immediate stop to some AI chip exports to China; Lloyds profits up but lending margins fall – business live

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      Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.The US has ordered the immediate halt of exports to China of hi-tech computer chips used for artificial intelligence, chipmaker Nvidia has said.Nvidia said the US had brought forward a ban which had given the company 30 days from 17 October to stop shipments. Instead of a grace period, the ban is “effective immediately”, the company said in a statement to US regulators.The company did not say why the ban had been brought forward so abruptly, but it comes amid a deep rivalry between the US and China over who will dominate the AI boom.Nvidia said that shipments of its A100, A800, H100, H800, and L40S chips would be affected. Those chips, which retail at several thousand dollars apiece, are specifically designed for use in datacentres to train AI and large language models.Demand for AI chips has soared as excitement has grown about the capabilities of generative AI, which can produce new text, images and video based on the inputs of huge volumes of data.Nvidia said it “does not anticipate that the accelerated timing of the licensing requirements will have a near-term meaningful impact on its financial results”.Lloyds profits up but competition squeezes marginsIn the UK, Lloyds Banking Group has reported a rise in profits even as it said competition was hitting its margins as mortgage rates fall back.Britain’s biggest bank said it made £1.9bn in profits from July to September, an increase compared to the £576m for the same period last year. The comparison has an important caveat, however: the bank has restated its financials to conform to new accounting rules.Net interest margin – the measure of the difference between the cost of borrowing and what it charges customers when it lends – was 3.08% in the third quarter, down 0.06 percentage points in the quarter “given the expected mortgage and deposit pricing headwinds”, it said.The bank did set aside £800m to deal with rising defaults from borrowers, but said that it was still seeing “broadly stable credit trends and resilient asset quality”.The agendaFilters BETAAn EY-linked auditor to the Adani Group is under scrutiny from India’s accounting regulator, Bloomberg News has reported.The National Financial Reporting Authority, or NFRA, has started an inquiry into, S.R. Batliboi, a member firm of EY in India, Bloomberg said, citing unnamed sources.S.R. Batliboi is the auditor for five Adani companies which account for about half Adani’s revenues.Bloomberg reported that representatives for NFRA and the Adani Group didn’t respond to an emailed request for comments. A representative for EY and S.R. Batliboi declined to comment to Bloomberg.China’s economic slowdown is causing worries at home, as well as in Germany and other big trade partners.A series of Chinese government actions have signalled their concern about slowing growth, which could cause problems for an authoritarian regime.Xi Jinping, China’s president, visited the People’s Bank of China for the first time, according to reports yesterday. “The purpose of the visit was not immediately known,” said Reuters, ominously.State media also reported that China had sharply lifted its 2023 budget deficit to about 3.8% of GDP because of an extra $137bn in government borrowing. That was up from 3%. The Global Times, a state-controlled newspaper, said the move would “benefit home consumption and the country’s economic growth”, citing an unnamed official.Germany’s economic fortunes were better than expected in October, according to a closely watched indicator – but whether it’s overall good news or bad depends on who you ask.The ifo business climate index rose from 85.8 to 86.9 points, higher than the 85.9 expected by economists polled beforehand by Reuters.Germany has been struggling as growth slows in China, a key export market, as well as the costs of switching from Russian gas to fuel its economy. You can read more context here:Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy, is firmly in team glass half empty. She said:
      The small rise in the Ifo business climate index (BCI) in October still left the index in contractionary territory, echoing the downbeat message from the composite PMI released yesterday. This chimes with our view that the German economy is again recession.
      Despite the improvement in October, the bigger picture remains that the German economy is struggling. The Ifo current conditions index, which has a better relationship with GDP than the BCI, is still consistent with GDP contracting by around 1% quarter-on-quarter. This is an even worse picture than that painted by the composite PMI, which fell in October but points to output dropping by “only” 0.5% quarter-on-quarter.
      But journalist Holger Zschaepitz said it looks like things are improving:UK house prices will continue to slide this year and in 2024 and will not start to recover until 2025, Lloyds Banking Group has forecast.The lender, which owns Halifax and is Britain’s largest mortgage provider, said that by the end of 2023 UK house prices will have fallen 5% over the course of the year and are likely to fall another 2.4% in 2024.Those forecasts, which were released alongside its third-quarter financial results on Wednesday, suggest UK house prices will have dropped 11% from their peak last year, when the market was still being fuelled by a rush for larger homes in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.Lloyds said the first signs of growth would only start to emerge in 2025, with its economists predicting a 2.3% increase in house prices that year.You can read the full report here:The Israel-Hamas conflict adds another cloud on the horizon for the global economy, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).Kristalina Georgieva was at “Davos in the desert”, a big conference hosted by Saudi Arabia.The Future Investment Initiative conference was the subject of boycotts five years ago when Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman allegedly ordered the murder of exiled critic Jamal Khasoggi. The distaste of global leaders has apparently faded since, however.Speaking on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Georgieva said (via Reuters):
      What we see is more jitters in what has already been an anxious world. And on a horizon that had plenty of clouds, one more – and it can get deeper.
      The war has been devastating for Israel and Gaza. Hamas killed more than 1,400 people and took more than 220 people as hostages in an assault on Israel. The health ministry in Gaza, which is run by Hamas, said last night that Gaza’s total death toll after 18 days of retaliatory bombing was 5,791 people, including 2,360 children.The broader economic impacts have been relatively limited, but Georgieva said that some neighbouring countries were feeling them:
      Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan. There, the channels of impact are already visible. Uncertainty is a killer for tourists inflows. Investors are going to be shy to go to that place.
      Reckitt, the maker of Dettol bleach and Finish dishwasher products, has missed sales expectations as revenues dropped 3.6% year-on-year in the third quarter.Its shares were down 2.3% on Wednesday morning, despite it also committing to buy back £1bn in shares.It missed expectations because of the comparison with strong sales in the same period last year in its nutrition division, which makes baby milk powder.Kris Licht, Reckitt’s chief executive, said:
      Reckitt delivered a strong quarter with 6.7% like-for-like growth across our hygiene and health businesses and has maintained market leadership in our US nutrition business.
      We are firmly on track to deliver our full year targets, despite some tough prior year comparatives that we continue to face in our US Nutrition business and across our OTC [over-the-counter medicines] portfolio in the fourth quarter.
      Speaking of Deutsche Bank, it posted its own earnings this morning: third-quarter profits dropped by 8%, but that was better than expected by analysts.Shares in Deutsche, which has struggled in the long shadow of the financial crisis, are up 4.2% in early trading.Reuters reported:
      The bank was slightly more optimistic on its revenue outlook for the full year, forecasting it would reach €29bn ($30.73bn), the top end of its previous guidance range, as it upgraded the outlook for revenue at the retail division.
      Net profit attributable to shareholders at Germany’s largest bank was €1.031bn, better than analyst expectations for profit of around €937m.
      Though earnings dropped, it marked the 13th consecutive profitable quarter, a considerable streak in the black after years of hefty losses.
      Here are the opening snaps from across Europe’s stock market indices, via Reuters:
      EUROPE’S STOXX 600 DOWN 0.1%
      FRANCE’S CAC 40 DOWN 0.4%
      SPAIN’S IBEX DOWN 0.3%
      EURO STOXX INDEX DOWN 0.2%
      EURO ZONE BLUE CHIPS DOWN 0.3%
      European indices appeared to be taking their lead from the US, where Google owner Alphabet’s share price dropped in after-hours trading last night. That dragged down futures for US tech companies, even though another tech titan, Microsoft, pleased investors.Analysts led by Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank said:
      Microsoft saw its shares rise +3.95% in after-market trading as revenues of $56.52bn (+13% y/y) beat estimates of $54.54bn and EPS came in at $2.99 (v $2.65 expected). The beat comes on the back of recovering cloud-computing growth with corporate customers spending more than expected. The other megacap, Alphabet, missed on their cloud revenue estimates at $8.4bn (v $8.6bn) with the share price falling -5.93% after hours as operating income and margins both surprised slightly to the downside.
      You can read more about Google’s performance here:We’re off to the races on the London Stock Exchange this morning: and the FTSE 100 has dipped at the open.Shares on London’s blue-chip index are down by 0.15% in the early trades. Lloyds Banking Group shares initially moved higher, but now they are down 2.1% after they flagged increasing competition hitting net interest margins.Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.The US has ordered the immediate halt of exports to China of hi-tech computer chips used for artificial intelligence, chipmaker Nvidia has said.Nvidia said the US had brought forward a ban which had given the company 30 days from 17 October to stop shipments. Instead of a grace period, the ban is “effective immediately”, the company said in a statement to US regulators.The company did not say why the ban had been brought forward so abruptly, but it comes amid a deep rivalry between the US and China over who will dominate the AI boom.Nvidia said that shipments of its A100, A800, H100, H800, and L40S chips would be affected. Those chips, which retail at several thousand dollars apiece, are specifically designed for use in datacentres to train AI and large language models.Demand for AI chips has soared as excitement has grown about the capabilities of generative AI, which can produce new text, images and video based on the inputs of huge volumes of data.Nvidia said it “does not anticipate that the accelerated timing of the licensing requirements will have a near-term meaningful impact on its financial results”.Lloyds profits up but competition squeezes marginsIn the UK, Lloyds Banking Group has reported a rise in profits even as it said competition was hitting its margins as mortgage rates fall back.Britain’s biggest bank said it made £1.9bn in profits from July to September, an increase compared to the £576m for the same period last year. The comparison has an important caveat, however: the bank has restated its financials to conform to new accounting rules.Net interest margin – the measure of the difference between the cost of borrowing and what it charges customers when it lends – was 3.08% in the third quarter, down 0.06 percentage points in the quarter “given the expected mortgage and deposit pricing headwinds”, it said.The bank did set aside £800m to deal with rising defaults from borrowers, but said that it was still seeing “broadly stable credit trends and resilient asset quality”.The agenda More

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      Cannabis firms are cut off from the US financial system, but relief is in sight

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      Imagine that you run a perfectly legal business but are unable to open a simple checking account at a national bank. Believe it or not, that’s the case right now for anyone licensed to sell cannabis in the US. Given the size of the cannabis industry, it’s pretty shocking. But it may be about to change.In the US, 38 states have legalized marijuana for medical use and 23 of them have legalized it for recreational purposes, including three territories and the District of Columbia. An additional eight states have decriminalized its use. Both red and blue states with legalized marijuana laws have collected $15bn in tax revenue between 2014 and 2022, with $3.77bn in tax revenue attributed to 2022 alone.Meanwhile, if you run a cannabis business – one that sells, distributes, manufactures or in some cases serves the industry, you’re not allowed to be a normal business.Meta, Facebook’s parent, only allows “limited” CBD and hemp advertising. Cannabis companies can’t run TV or radio commercials for their products. They are not allowed to conduct any campaigns outside their state as interstate commerce is forbidden. In Ohio – like other states – they can’t run a billboard campaign without prior approval of the state’s board of pharmacy. Many localities have zoning laws that prohibit them from operating. Many insurance carriers are reluctant to serve the industry as do a number of the country’s largest payroll service providers.Cannabis businesses are not allowed to deduct rent, payroll or other expenses that other businesses can write off. They regularly face expanded business licensing requirements. They can’t take advantage of the federal bankruptcy rules. They can’t trademark their products.And then there’s banking. Cannabis businesses can only choose from about 200 independent and community banks. I don’t mean to throw shade on these organizations, because many of them are excellent. But they oftentimes don’t offer online banking, international access, wire transfer, investment options, financial stability and other capabilities of a larger institution. When it comes to the cannabis industry, federally chartered banks like Wells Fargo, PNC Bank, JP Morgan Chase, TD Bank and Key Bank are not playing ball. Because of this, many cannabis businesses receive fewer financial services and have been forced to retain an uncomfortable level of cash, making themselves exposed to theft and crime. The banking industry realizes this but resists.Why is this? Because cannabis is still considered to be an illegal controlled substance, subject to very strict federal laws and, because it’s illegal at the federal level, many large corporations, such as banks, insurance companies and payroll services, remain spooked.It’s no surprise that, despite all the growth, many in the cannabis industry are struggling to make profits. But there’s potentially good news on the horizon. Finally, the federal government may allow banks with federal charters to do business with those in the cannabis industry.At the end of last month the Senate committee on banking, housing and urban affairs moved forward with the Secure and Fair Enforcement Regulation (Safer) Banking Act, which allows banks to conduct business with cannabis companies. The House already passed a similar act, so the Senate committee’s approval is a big deal.“This legislation will help make our communities and small businesses safer by giving legal cannabis businesses access to traditional financial institutions, including bank accounts and small business loans,” the bill’s sponsors said in a joint statement. “It also prevents federal bank regulators from ordering a bank or credit union to close an account based on reputational risk.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionStill, significant hurdles exist. There remain a number of representatives in both the House and Senate who oppose the bill.“This legislation also compromises the integrity of the United States banking system by giving banks government approval to participate in illegal activity, setting a dangerous new precedent,” some Republican senators said recently in a joint statement. “Allowing banking access to a Schedule I drug sets a dangerous legal precedent and will help facilitate money laundering for drug cartels.” This opposition, combined with a leadership void in the House, could derail progress of the bill for the foreseeable future.But I’m more optimistic. The bill is not going so far as to legalize marijuana, so that should appease some of its opponents. And given the strong bipartisan support received in both the Senate and House for the Safer Banking Act, I don’t believe it’s an overreach to expect passage … eventually. When? Who knows.In the meantime, those in the industry must wait. And fight. And deal with restrictions that few other legitimate companies have to face. It’s tough enough running any business. But for those in this game, it’s a whole new level altogether. More

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      The trials of SBF and DJT: Trump isn’t clean on crypto but he did warn us about it

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      The New York fraud trial of Sam Bankman-Fried kicked off this week. The 31-year-old former crypto billionaire faces two substantive counts of wire fraud, for acts allegedly perpetrated against the customers of FTX, the crypto-futures exchange he founded, and five related counts of conspiracy. If convicted on all charges, he faces up to 110 years in prison.As fate would have it, his case is being heard a few buildings away from where one Donald J Trump sits on trial for fraud. Like the 45th president – DJT, if you will – SBF has a tough row to hoe.Even if Bankman-Fried is acquitted, he stares at another trial, slated for March 2024, on five more counts of fraud. The men’s paths remain entwined. At that same moment, Trump will be both deep into the Republican primary and likely standing trial in connection with January 6.Furthermore, filings show that as of early August, Trump held $2.8m in a cryptocurrency wallet, with as much as $500,000 in ethereum, a cryptocurrency. On top of that, his collection of non-fungible tokens generated $4.87m in licensing fees. The NFTs are a collection of virtual trading cards, featuring illustrations of Trump as superhero, cowboy or astronaut. Really.Not that Trump has always been in favour of crypto.“I am not a fan of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air,” he tweeted in 2019.Sound familiar? Prosecutors say Bankman-Fried relied on smoke and mirrors to gain access to political power. According to his indictment, he used customers’ assets “to lobby Congress and regulatory agencies to support legislation and regulation he believed would make it easier for FTX to continue to accept customer deposits and grow”.He is also alleged to have “misappropriated customer money to help fund over $100m in political contributions in advance of the 2022 election”, while seeking to “conceal the source of the funds used for the contributions”.Trump and his party, however, were not the chief recipients of such largesse. Bankman-Fried tended to donate to Democrats. Conservatives were therefore annoyed. They sought to portray Bankman-Fried as a leftist, on top of being a crook. Once upon a time, though, he met Ron DeSantis for no apparent reason other than the fact Florida’s hard-right governor wanted to meet. Now, as a presidential candidate, DeSantis has emerged as a crypto advocate. His campaign continues to sink, however.We know more about such meetings now, thanks in large part to Going Infinite: The Rise and Fall of a New Tycoon, a new book by Michael Lewis, the author of Moneyball, The Big Short and other bestsellers about how capitalism works – and doesn’t.For instance, Jerry Jones, a Republican and owner of the Dallas Cowboys NFL team, showed up at a Beverly Hills party also attended by Hillary Clinton, a passel of Kardashians, Doug Emhoff, the husband of the vice-president, Kamala Harris – and Bankman-Fried.Bankman-Fried had allure. Exactly why continues to puzzle political players. His money doesn’t explain everything. But it does shed light on plenty.In summer 2022, Lewis writes, Bankman-Fried met Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, with the goal of stopping Trump-aligned extremists snagging Republican nominations. It was a high-level meeting – high enough that for one evening, Bankman-Fried even swapped his beloved cargo shorts for a suit.“At that moment, Sam was planning to give $15m to $30m to McConnell to defeat the Trumpier candidates in the Senate races,” Lewis writes.Bankman-Fried also explored paying Trump $5bn not to run in 2024, Lewis writes. Nothing came of that.Now, as Bankman-Fried sits in court, McConnell, 81, remains in the minority, his health in public decline. But McConnell remains a reliable soldier, his hold on his caucus unchanged.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe crypto industry, meanwhile, scrambles to salvage its image from the damage done by Bankman-Fried.“The idea that one man and one company dictated an entire industry was frustrating for a lot of people,” Kara Calvert, head of US policy at Coinbase, recently told Politico. “At the end of the day, the industry is so broad-based. Nobody wants to let the whole future of technological development in the United States be dictated by a criminal.”Bankman-Fried has not been convicted of anything. But it does seem extraordinary that he rose so high so fast, and that so many political leaders were so eager to help.“From the beginning, I had thought that crypto was pretty dumb,” wrote Zeke Faux, an investigative reporter for Bloomberg and a fellow at New America, in Number Go Up, his unflattering take on crypto and Bankman-Fried. “And it turned out to be even dumber than I imagined.“There was no mass movement to actually use crypto in the real world … from El Salvador to Switzerland to the Philippines, all I saw were scams, fraud, and half-baked schemes.”In September 2021, El Salvador made bitcoin legal tender, the first country to do so. The rightwing Heritage Foundation ranks the country’s economy the 114th most free. Freedom House, more mainstream, rates El Salvador partly free. It’s not a flattering ad for crypto.In the US, major advocates include Eric Adams, the mayor of New York; Robert Kennedy Jr, a conspiracy theorist and likely third-party presidential candidate; and Cynthia Lummis, the Wyoming Republican senator who opposed certifying Joe Biden’s 2020 win just hours after the attack on Congress.Such names should tell us something – as should Trump’s crypto holdings mentioned above. But anyone who still believes might also care to recall Trump’s earlier words.“Unregulated crypto assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity,” he tweeted, more than four years ago. “We have only one real currency in the USA … it is by far the most dominant currency anywhere in the world, and it will always stay that way. It is called the United States Dollar!”Strange as it seems to say it, the man had a point. More

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      ‘Trump show is over,’ says New York attorney general as third day of fraud trial ends

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      The New York attorney general, Letitia James, told reporters on Wednesday that “the Trump show is over” as the third day of the former US president’s civil fraud trial wrapped up in Manhattan.James and Trump both returned to the trial a day after Trump ran afoul of the judge by denigrating a key court staffer in a social media post.Outside court, James called Trump’s appearance at the civil trial – which he is not required to attend – a “political stunt” and a “fundraising stop”.Trump has spent the first three days of the trial attacking James and Judge Arthur Engoron in press gatherings outside court. He is expected to return to Mar-a-Lago on Wednesday.“I will not be bullied,” James said. “Justice will be served.”The former US president and Republican frontrunner in the 2024 presidential race is voluntarily taking time out from the campaign trail to attend the trial. James’s lawsuit accuses Trump and his business of deceiving banks, insurers and others by providing financial statements that greatly exaggerated his wealth.Trump formally appealed a judge’s refusal to dismiss James’s civil fraud lawsuit against him and his family business on Wednesday. The appeal was filed as Trump sat in a the courtroom, watching an accountant who used to work for him testify as the state’s first witness.Engoron already has ruled that Trump committed fraud by inflating the values of prized assets including his Trump Tower penthouse. The ruling could, if upheld on appeal, cost Trump control of his signature skyscraper and some other properties.Trump denies any wrongdoing. With familiar rhetoric, on his way into court on Wednesday, he called James “incompetent”, portrayed her as part of a broader Democratic effort to weaken his 2024 prospects and termed the trial “a disgrace”.Trump has frequently vented in the courthouse hallway and on social media about the trial, James and Judge Engoron, also a Democrat.But after he assailed Engoron’s principal law clerk on social media on Tuesday, the judge imposed a limited gag order, commanding all participants in the trial not to hurl personal attacks at court staffers. The judge told Trump to delete the “disparaging, untrue and personally identifying post”, and the former president took it down.The non-jury trial concerns six claims that remained in the lawsuit after Engoron’s pretrial ruling, and the trial is to determine how much Trump might owe in penalties. James is seeking $250m and a ban on Trump doing business in New York.On Wednesday, an accountant who prepared Trump’s financial statements for years was to continue testifying as a witness for the state. James’s lawyers are trying to show that Trump and others at his company had full control over the preparation of the statements.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe accountant, Donald Bender, told the court on Tuesday that the Trump Organization didn’t always supply all the documents needed to produce the statements, despite attesting in letters to the accounting firm that the company had provided all financial records and hadn’t “knowingly withheld” relevant data.During cross-examination, Bender acknowledged he missed a change in information about the size of the Trump Tower apartment.The defense lawyer Jesus Suarez seized on that, telling Bender that Trump’s company and employees were “going through hell” because “you missed it”.Bender responded: “We didn’t screw it up. The Trump Organization made a mistake, and we didn’t catch it.”Trump plans to testify later in the trial.Agencies contributed to this article More

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      Letitia James: the fearless attorney general threatening Trump’s business

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      New York attorney general Letitia James has never shied away from taking on powerful adversaries – from the National Rifle Association to former New York governor Andrew Cuomo.On Monday she will take on her biggest case yet: a fraud trial that threatens the very foundation of Donald Trump’s New York real estate empire.Critics have accused the 64-year-old career prosecutor of using her office, with 1,700 staff and over 700 assistant attorneys general, for political purposes. To others, the Democrat is a heroic figure: the first woman elected as New York’s attorney general and the first Black person to serve in the role. A fearless prosecutor who has taken on cases others would walk away from.Like Trump, “Tish” James was born and raised in New York City. It’s about the only thing they have in common. Raised with her seven siblings in Brooklyn, James attended public schools in the city before getting her law degree at Howard University in Washington DC.She started her law career as a public defender before entering New York politics as a councilmember and then as public advocate, the first Black woman to hold the watchdog role. James’s passions were clear from the start – she filed a record number of suits on behalf of tenants, seniors and people with disabilities. James became New York state attorney general in 2018.Few think her ambitions stop there. Top state prosecutor has often been the jumping off point for a run for New York’s governorship, which James briefly attempted last year.The Trump trial will thrust James further into the spotlight and she is off to an impressive start. James has already claimed one victory in the case. Last week, the New York judge Arthur Engoron ruled the real estate developer had committed fraud for years as he built his empire by inflating the value of his holdings. In an early win for James, Engoron revoked the business licenses of Trump and his adult sons, Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump, essentially barring them from doing business in the state.This week, Engoron will hear arguments on a potential fine, which could be at least $250m.“I come from a long line of very strong, tough women. We stick to our principles and stand up for what we believe in, which is fundamental fairness, which is my raison d’être,” James told Elle Magazine in 2017.As attorney general, she has worked for more funding for pre-trial services, the reform of bail laws for minor offenses, treatments for the mental health crisis, cracking down on ghost guns and defending the state’s gun laws restricting the public carrying of firearms.James has also said she wants to prioritize antitrust investigations and consumer protections, and focus on reducing tenant evictions amid skyrocketing rents in the city and state.Last year, James suspended her campaign for New York governor, saying she wanted to “finish the job” with her ongoing investigations, including overseeing a sexual harassment investigation into former governor Cuomo that led to his resignation, an inquiry into the NRA and fraudulent financial practices of the former president.In interviews during her campaign, James said that not pursuing evidence of wrongdoing by Trump or the NRA would have been a “dereliction of my duty” and rejected claims that her legal pursuits were not on behalf of New Yorkers but her “own personal ambitions”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“I make no apologies, because this is who I am, and this is what I do,” James added.On the same day that she ended her campaign, reports said she was looking to sit Trump for a deposition as part of her civil investigation into his business practices. Trump has called James “a renegade and out of control prosecutor”, dismissed the case as “crazy” and a “witch-hunt”, and invoked his fifth amendment right against self-incrimination 400 times.Trump maintains his innocence and his lawyers are appealing the pre-trial ruling. But outside observers believe this case will be a real test of Trump’s – often successful – bluster.Andrew Lieb, a real estate attorney and legal political analyst, says James is doing no more or less than what attorneys general do. The fact that Trump received a pre-trial ruling in his fraud trial shows just how clear the case against him was.“He was so outrageous, pompous and immune to order and business practices that someone had to do something about it. It was like spitting and saying it’s raining,” Lieb said. “It’s not like he took a $10m property and said it was worth $11m. He took a $10m property and said it was worth over $100m.”James, he says, will go down as an effective attorney general. “She’s effective in that she won. No one remembers how you played the game, they just remember that you won.” More

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      Voter drive: Biden and Trump battle for blue-collar votes in auto heartland

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      Joe Biden became the first sitting US president to join a picket line when he stopped at a General Motors facility just outside Detroit to show support for striking United Auto Workers last week. “Stick with it. You deserve a significant raise,” Biden told the crowd.A day later, Donald Trump told raucous blue-collar supporters at a speech north of Detroit: “Just get your union guys, your leaders, to endorse me and I will take care of the rest.”The tug-of-war remarks represented the unofficial opening salvoes of the 2024 election season as the parties’ likely candidates set out to woo blue-collar voters in Michigan, a critical bloc in a state that’s a must-win in any White House bid.“Politically, Michigan is ground zero right now because of the auto strike,” said Bill Ballenger, a conservative state political analyst. Biden, he said, was seeking to shore up his slipping support among unions, while Trump had spotted a “weakness in Bidenomics” that the former president was set on exploiting as the strike pushes into its third week.Trump won Michigan, an upper midwest swing state, by about 12,000 votes in 2016. Biden took the state by nearly 150,000 votes in the next election. Michigan is a heavily unionized state, and Biden won with 64% support among union members. But August polling found support among Michigan union members hangs at 49%, and Biden and Trump are in effect tied.“Clearly there’s division among the rank and file,” said pollster Bernie Porn, president of Epic MRA, a Michigan-based survey research firm. Political observers say Michigan is very much in play in the 2024 election.The dueling visits showcased two very different visions for America’s future. Trump criticized the Biden administration’s support for the auto industry’s shift to electric vehicles, which unions fear because they require fewer workers to make. “You can be loyal to American labor or you can be loyal to the environmental lunatics,” Trump told the crowd in a meandering, hour-long speech. (Later he insisted he would make “sex changes for children” illegal.)Biden’s minutes’ long pitch zeroed in on the unions: “The fact of the matter is that you guys, the UAW – you saved the automobile industry back in 2008 … You made a lot of sacrifices. But now they’re doing incredibly well. And guess what? You should be doing incredibly well too.”The visits also put on display two competing styles. Despite the historic nature of Biden’s visit, the daytime visit was a low-key, invite-only event among a small crowd of UAW members. The tone was supportive, good-natured. At the nearby Ford Michigan Assembly plant, Biden’s supporters viewed it as a morale boost.Trump, by contrast, set up at night in a non-union shop in Macomb county, an Obama-to-Trump blue-collar swing county. Hundreds of boisterous supporters lined the streets, banging on drums and shouting “Freedom!” and breaking into chants of “USA! USA!” and “Back the blue!” The Trump campaign dismissed Biden’s visit as a “cheap photo op”, and said the rank and file support him, not Biden. Some of his supporters echoed that.“We’ve always known that the blue-collar workers are behind Trump, but the party heads and elites have such a command of the microphone that the floor worker is really underrepresented,” said Trump supporter James Anthony Minnick Jr after attending the former president’s Wednesday speech.Biden’s visit seems to convey an understanding of that, political observers say, but despite that the UAW leadership has been very clear in who it supports.“I see no point in meeting with [Trump] because I don’t think the man has any bit of care about what our workers stand for, what the working class stands for,” the UAW president, Shawn Fain, said before Trump’s visit. “He serves a billionaire class, and that’s what’s wrong with this country.”Biden had attended the UAW picket at Fain’s invitation, but the union has yet to officially endorse anyone, which could signal an understanding of rank-and-file divisions, or could be read as leverage to gain continuing White House support.Scott Malenfant, 47, an Obama-to-Ted Cruz-to-Trump supporter and union rep, was among those on the picket line outside Ford’s Michigan Assembly plant on Tuesday who split from UAW leadership. After Biden’s speech, the 23-year line veteran said Democrats lost him and other union members over the EV transition and their support of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Democrats are “on the record saying those jobs are never coming back”, Malenfant noted.“Trump is the first one who said ‘We’re going to bring these jobs back,’” he added while acknowledging that Republicans are typically anti-union. But Trump was different, he said: “All he cares about is whether the country does well … and at least he’s the one pushing for workers.”Biden’s Tuesday message that auto companies need to reward workers did resonate with some who are undecided, or describe themselves as “not political”, like Lisa Carter, 53, who works in the plant’s stamping department. She has two jobs despite 17 years on the line, and she cannot afford to buy a new Ford.“If you’re for the people, then I’m for you,” Carter said. “And Trump can stay where he’s at because when he was president he said we make too much money.”Biden needs to address the EV concerns, Porn said, and talk to union members about how batteries and chips could be produced by autoworkers in the state. The visit also comes in the wake of another Trump indictment, and Porn said the former president’s mounting legal numbers appear to be a drag on his favorability numbers, which are down to 37%.Some of that may be down to Trump’s ever mounting legal troubles. But those cases are unlikely to shake his diehard supporters “because they see him as he likes to see himself – a victim, a martyr being crucified by the deep state”, said Ballenger.For now, with more than a year to go before the election, Porn and Ballenger each say Biden has the edge in the state despite his concerning poll numbers. But Ballenger warned the race was far from decided. Just like in 2016: “It could be deja vu all over again,” Ballenger said. More

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      ‘Fed up’ US autoworkers expand strikes against GM and Ford

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      The United Auto Workers union escalated its strike against the big three US automakers on Friday as the industrial action entered its third week.In a livestream updateon the strike on Friday, the UAW president, Shawn Fain, said another 7,000 workers would be joining the action. About 25,000 workers are now on strike.Fain said: “We are fed up with corporate greed and we are fed up with corporate excess. We are fed up with breaking our bodies for companies that take more and more and give less and less.”Fain said bargaining with Ford and General Motors had not made meaningful progress in the past week, adding Ford’s Chicago assembly plant and a GM plant in Lansing, Michigan, to the strike. Action at Stellantis was not escalated this week due to progress made in talks.The strike has become a hot-button issue in political circles with Joe Biden and Donald Trump visiting Michigan this week to address autoworkers.“This strike is absolutely about the worker and listening to the worker,” Haley Stevens, a Democrat representing Michigan’s 11th congressional district, told the Guardian. “This strike has opened up new channels to hear from workers in ways that we haven’t seen in a very long time in the country.”Stevens served as chief of staff to the US Auto Rescue Task Force under the Obama administration and has appeared on the strike picket lines in support of autoworkers. She recently reintroduced a bill to protect union autoworkers in Congress.She said the concessions autoworkers made to help the auto industry recover from the 2008 economic recession have not been returned. She also praised the work auto employees did to get the industry through the Covid-19 pandemic.“Now is the time to recognize that work, and their fair share of the profit, and ensure that anyone who works at the automakers is treated fairly, and dealt in to the profits and to the transition that’s under way,” Stevens added.Shaun Collier, a Stellantis assembly worker in Sterling Heights, Michigan, said: “The big three have been making record profits, giving themselves increases, while us UAW members are the ones doing all of the work, putting wear and tear on our bodies, missing our kids’ extracurricular activities because we are forced to be here to build a product we can’t even afford.“All we want is a livable wage, a work-life balance, and job security.”Biden joined the UAW picket line in Michigan on Tuesday, the first sitting president ever to do so.“The fact of the matter is you guys, the UAW … you saved the automobile industry back in 2008 and before. You made a lot of sacrifices, gave up a lot. The companies were in trouble. Now they are doing incredibly well, and guess what? You should be doing incredibly well too,” Biden said.Trump held a rally at a non-union auto parts plant outside of Detroit on Wednesday, coinciding with the Republican presidential primary debate. More