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    Former Fed chair Janet Yellen set to become first female treasury secretary

    Janet Yellen, the first woman to chair the US Federal Reserve, is set to achieve another first, becoming the country’s first female treasury secretary.
    The 74-year-old economist is expected to be named as President-elect Joe Biden’s choice on Tuesday.
    Yellen will take the job during one of the most trying economic times in modern history.
    US unemployment hit a postwar record in April, in the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, and while the jobs situation has improved, the recovery has slowed in recent months as rates of infection have increased.
    Millions remain out of work, and women and people of color have been hit disproportionately hard by the downturn.
    Congress has struggled to reach agreement on a new round of economic spending, the US national debt is at record levels, and relations with the US’s major trading partners are frayed after the Trump administration’s trade wars.
    Donald Trump declined to reappoint Yellen to the Fed chair after his election in 2016, making her the first central bank chief not to serve two terms since the Carter administration. During his campaign Trump said Yellen should be “ashamed” of her policy actions and accused her of keeping interest rates low in order to bolster President Barack Obama’s legacy.
    Cautious and carefully spoken Yellen has made few comments about Trump although when asked last year if she thought Trump “had a grasp” of macroeconomic policy she said: “No I do not.”
    Yellen has recently advocated for more federal spending from Congress to tackle the economic devastation caused by the virus.
    “There is a huge amount of suffering out there. The economy needs the spending,” Yellen said in a September interview.
    Yellen, professor emeritus at the University of California at Berkeley, a former assistant professor at Harvard and a lecturer at the London School of Economics, is an expert in labor markets who has highlighted the economic impact of uneven growth in the jobs market.
    She is married to the Nobel-winning economist and frequent co-author George Akerlof.
    Progressives had been hoping Senator Elizabeth Warren, a staunch critic of Wall Street, might get the job. But with control of the Senate still in the balance, Yellen is a safer pick. After the news broke Warren called Yellen “an outstanding choice.”

    Elizabeth Warren
    (@SenWarren)
    Janet Yellen would be an outstanding choice for Treasury Secretary. She is smart, tough, and principled. As one of the most successful Fed Chairs ever, she has stood up to Wall Street banks, including holding Wells Fargo accountable for cheating working families.

    November 23, 2020

    Biden said last week that his Treasury nominee would be accepted by both the progressive and moderate wings of the Democrat party. Yellen has also in the past attracted bipartisan support, receiving 11 Republican votes for her 2014 confirmation as Fed chair, including the backing of three sitting Republican senators.
    She is also one of the best-connected economists in the world, leading the Fed from 2014 to 2018 after a long career in economic policymaking.
    If appointed, Yellen will not only be the first female Fed chair and treasury secretary, but the first person to have headed both organizations and the White House council of economic advisers. More

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    Fight for $15 minimum wage boosted in Florida but Biden faces tough task

    It has been a long time coming but Hector Rivera is hopeful that one day soon he will be able to take a day off work. The 61-year-old works as a janitor in Miami, Florida, making just over $9 an hour. Because the pay is so low, Rivera works two janitorial jobs and scrambles to find gig jobs on the weekends in order to cover his rent and bills every month.“Trying to survive on this salary is extremely difficult because I’m constantly looking for more work,” said Rivera, a Dominican and one of the millions of Latino and Black Americans who are disproportionately represented in the low-wage sector.On 3 November Rivera, and the millions of Americans fighting for a raise for low-wage workers, were given a boost when Florida passed a resolution to increase its minimum wage to $15 an hour.Raising the minimum wage was a central plank of Joe Biden’s election campaign and Florida’s vote came even as the state voted for Donald Trump. But while workers and activists are cheering the victory, the road ahead for Biden and a raise in the minimum wage looks tough.It’s been eight years since fast-food workers walked off their jobs in New York City and began calling for a $15 minimum wage. In that time the Fight for $15 movement grew to be the largest protest movement for low-wage workers in US history and has won some important victories.Florida is the first state in the south and the eighth state overall to adopt such a measure. And some big corporations including Amazon, Target and Walt Disney have raised, or promised to raise, their minimum wages to $15.After Biden’s win, Senator Elizabeth Warren, a longtime supporter of the movement, urged the incoming Biden administration to use all the “tools in their toolbox” to push a raise through and Biden has promised to back unions who are also pushing hard for a statewide raise for low-wage workers.Rivera was among the low-wage workers who got involved with a union organizing drive for change at his workplace with Service Employees International Union Local 32BJ. The Florida ballot, known as amendment two, will gradually increase the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026 from its current minimum wage set at $8.56 an hour.“With amendment two passing, I’ll be able to spend more time with my family,” said Rivera, who recently spent 35 hours working straight without any sleep. “Hopefully now I’ll be able to take a day off,” Rivera added. “The only way we can live a decent life here in Miami is if they raise our wages because everything is expensive. It’s impossible to save money without making more.”A raise has broad support in the US, even in Republican states. Over 60% of Florida voters approved the measure. In Louisiana, another Republican state where the minimum wage is just $7.25 an hour, a Louisiana State University poll 59% of residents support raising it to $15.Nor is there much evidence that a raise would be bad for business. A UC Berkeley report published in July 2019 found even low-wage areas in the US can afford a $15 minimum wage, which would reduce poverty and have no adverse effects, such as job losses. Most economic research on the subject has demonstrated little to no negative consequences to employment while providing positive gains for the low-wage workforce. The last time Florida increased its state minimum wage in 2004, unemployment dropped and 200,000 jobs were added the following year. More

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    UK budget won’t be balanced this decade, says head of Institute for Fiscal Studies

    The UK’s ravaged public finances are unlikely to be brought into balance before the end of the decade at the earliest thanks to the lasting impact of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).In his Conservative Party speech in October the Chancellor Rishi Sunak said he had a “sacred responsibility” to leave the public finances strong and that “this Conservative government will always balance the books”.Yet, ahead of Mr Sunak’s Spending Review next Wednesday, Paul Johnson, the head of the IFS, told Econ Films’ CoronaNomics show, that this was a distant prospect indeed.“[It] was a very, very strange thing to say because I don’t think there’s any possibility of the books being balanced this decade, if not for longer,” said Mr Johnson.
    The government has borrowed £215bn since April, according to the Office for National Statistics, up from £46bn in the same period in 2019.  The Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s independent forecaster, estimated in August (before the furlough extension was announced) that total borrowing for the full 2020-21 financial year would come in at around £372bn, around 19 per cent of UK GDP.This would be the biggest annual deficit in peacetime.  Most of that borrowing is expected to disappear automatically as the economy ultimately recovers and the emergency support for the economy, such as the furlough scheme, comes to end.But most forecasters, including the Bank of England, now expect the UK economy to be considerably smaller in the middle of the decade than was expected before the crisis, which will open up a “structural” deficit in the public finances, meaning a deficit that will not be automatically closed when the economy is running at normal speed.The size of that deficit will depend on the speed of the recovery and how much extra spending on health in the crisis becomes permanent, but in its “Green Budget” earlier this year the IFS laid out scenarios of public borrowing by 2024-2025, with the optimistic scenario showing a deficit of 3.5 per cent and the pessimistic scenario showing a deficit of  8.5 per cent.Many analysts are pencilling in a long-run structural deficit of around 2 per cent of GDP, or £40bn in today’s money. There has been speculation that Rishi Sunak is examining tax rises in anticipation of needing to take action to repair the public finances and there have been reports the Treasury plans to freeze the pay of non-health public sector employees in 2021-22 in the Spending Review.Yet Mr Johnson, in line with just about every independent economist, argues that the Treasury should not be implementing any tax rises or spending cuts until the economy has recovered, as such consolidation measures, at the moment, would merely make the country’s fiscal hole deeper.“There was some very odd briefing over the summer, where there was lots of press speculation about a budget in the Autumn announcing tax rises for next year, which were supposedly coming from the Treasury, though I find that very hard to believe,” Mr Johnson told CoronaNomics.“Clearly they should not have been – and I’m amazed that they were – talking about that kind of thing at that time. It was clearly an inappropriate moment to be doing that.” More

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    The 'market' won't save us from climate disaster. We must rethink our system | Robert S Devine

    The massive wildfires that have been rampaging across the American west this year are not purely natural disasters. They are partly products of the unnatural disaster of climate change – “unnatural”, in that the ultimate responsibility for global warming belongs not to physics but to our economic system. Nicholas Stern, the former chief economist of the World Bank, calls climate change the “greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen”. Sadly, climate change is only one – albeit a whopper – of the countless market failures that degrade our lives.
    Though it sounds like a generic phrase, “market failure” is actually a technical term. It doesn’t refer to scams like insider trading or corporate fraud. A failure occurs when the marketplace allocates resources in a way that does not optimally deliver wellbeing. We understandably focus a lot of attention on the depredations of greedy tycoons and corporations, but many of the most consequential market failures stem from innate characteristics of our current market system.
    Many of us probably already have a gut feeling that our current market system often fails. In order to build a more sustainable, just and prosperous economy, however, it’s vital that we better comprehend the shortcomings deep in the market’s DNA. Greater awareness would reduce blind faith in the market and enable people to see the market for what it is: a tool. It can be an excellent tool when used for the right job, but relying on the market to deal with something like climate change is like trying to pound nails with a saw.
    One major inherent flaw involves communication. In an ideal version of the market, continuous indirect communication between consumers and producers leads to the best allocation of society’s resources. Consumers make their desires known by the prices they’re willing to pay, and producers convey their costs by the prices they charge.
    However, producers only communicate a narrow range of costs. For example, an oil company will account for typical expenses, like payments to its employees, and then set its prices accordingly. Consumers will receive those price signals and decide whether to buy that company’s gasoline. But markets enable businesses to scrub most social and environmental costs from these signals, which garbles communication with consumers. For instance, the price of gas doesn’t reflect the cost of the revved-up wildfires we suffer due to the additional global warming caused by burning that oil company’s gasoline. Numerous studies estimate that the true cost of gas is two to four times higher than what we pay at the pump.
    Incomplete communication misleads us consumers into buying products laden with hidden costs. Countless goods and services bear the stains of harms such as pollution, habitat destruction, floods, child labor, extinctions and disease. When we fill up at the gas station the price we are charged doesn’t tell us that our purchase increases the odds that a wildfire will burn down our community. Making such partially informed choices is like buying a house having seen only the kitchen.
    Another characteristic of the market that leads to failure is its inability to provide incentives for businesses to produce or protect public goods, such as fire departments or city parks. Most important, the market doesn’t generate the public goods sometimes known as “ecosystem services”, such as nutrient cycling, soil formation, oxygen creation and a livable climate. Many of these essential services operate in the background; like plumbing and wiring, they go unnoticed and unappreciated unless they fail.
    Take the flooding that drowned parts of coastal Louisiana and Mississippi in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina thrashed the Gulf coast. More than 1,800 people died, cherished communities disintegrated, and the price tag swelled to more than $100bn. Much of the devastation occurred because oil and gas development had decimated the coastal marshes that previously had tamed storm surges. The protection those marshes provide is an extremely valuable ecosystem service, yet no entrepreneurs hustle to produce that protection.
    And why would they? The market doesn’t give private businesses a profit motive to produce public goods. For example, even if a company were to restore a marsh, they wouldn’t be able to sell that service because they couldn’t exclude anyone living on that coast from using that protection for free.
    Private restoration companies exist, of course, and some make a profit by rehabilitating marshes. But market forces didn’t spawn these outfits. At some point somebody recognized the value of the marshes and made a conscious choice to try to preserve or restore them. Most likely a number of somebodies made that choice and pressed their government to hire a restoration company. More broadly, environmental and social projects happen when a great many somebodies vote for candidates who support such efforts. Such purposeful collective action is the overarching solution to market failures. Instead of passively counting on supply and demand to provide everything we need, we sometimes need to exert our judgment.
    And there it is, the J-word: “judgment”. Free-enterprise disciples view most efforts to use our collective judgment to shape the economy as central planning that will foul the gears of the market. But banishing judgment about how to allocate our resources will result in a world with plenty of video game consoles and fashionable shoes and precious little biodiversity and climate stability – and, all too soon, biological poverty and climate chaos will also cripple the economy of stuff, and video game consoles and shoes will become scarce, as well.
    Citizens who scorn judgment should note that we’ve exercised some collective judgment to help guide the economy since the advent of government. The problem is that we’re not exercising it enough. In recent decades we’ve gotten out of balance and are leaning too far toward an unrestrained market even when it’s the wrong tool for the job.
    Consider your toaster. It’s loaded with hidden costs that the market doesn’t communicate and that individual consumers can’t be expected to discover. But government (well, good government that pays attention to science) has the expertise to evaluate your toaster. If we citizens decide that we want to address climate change and air pollution, then government can do our bidding by devising energy efficiency standards for our appliances.
    In fact, they did, decades ago. According to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, those regulations have saved more than $1tn to date and have reduced greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of the annual emissions of 800m cars. And we don’t even know the standards are there – hardly the heavy hand of government that haunts free-marketeers’ fever dreams.
    So let’s use our judgment to create an economy that better aligns with our values. Instead of surrendering our autonomy to the soulless mechanics of the market, we can freely choose to grow beyond being mere consumers and become forceful citizens.
    Robert S Devine is the author of Bush Versus the Environment and The Sustainable Economy: The Hidden Costs of Climate Change and the Path to a Prosperous Future More

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    BioNTech chief rejects Trump claim it delayed Covid vaccine news

    The scientist behind the BioNTech/Pfizer coronavirus vaccine has defended his company from Donald Trump’s accusation that it deliberately delayed news of its rapid progress until after the election, saying “we don’t play politics”.
    BioNTech, a German company, and the US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced on Monday that their jointly developed vaccine candidate had exceeded expectations in the crucial phase 3 vaccine trials, proving 90% effective in protecting people from coronavirus infections.
    Quick guide Who in the UK will get the new Covid-19 vaccine first?
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    The UK government’s joint committee on vaccination and immunisation has published a list of groups of people who will be prioritised to receive a vaccine for Covid-19. The list is:
    1. All those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers.
    2. All those 75 years of age and over.
    3. All those 70 years of age and over.
    4. All those 65 years of age and over.
    5. Adults under 65 years of age at high at risk of serious disease and mortality from Covid-19.
    6. Adults under 65 years of age at moderate risk of at risk of serious disease and mortality from Covid-19.
    7. All those 60 years of age and over.
    8. All those 55 years of age and over.
    9. All those 50 years of age and over.
    10. Rest of the population

    The US president criticised the timing of their press release. Trump accused the companies of holding back the good news until after the American elections “because they didn’t have the courage to do it before”.
    But BioNTech’s chief executive, Prof Uğur Şahin, told the Guardian in a wide-ranging interview he only was notified of the outcome of the interim trials on Sunday at 8pm in a call from the Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, who himself had only been informed three minutes earlier by the independent monitoring board.
    “We want to develop this vaccine as quickly as possible, and we have our own system of coordinates,” Şahin said in response to Trump’s accusation. “Every day counts, and we were desperately waiting for the day of the trial results. It couldn’t come early enough.”
    “Pharmaceutical research should never be politicised. It’s a question of integrity. Withholding information would have been unethical. What’s important for us is that we are developing a vaccine and we don’t play politics.”
    Others have criticised the two companies for not holding on to their information long enough. Bourla raised eyebrows when he sold $5.6m (£4.2m) in stock as company shares soared on Monday night.
    Pfizer says the shares were sold via an automated system after they hit a certain price, under a plan set up in August. More

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    UK firms fear for their survival as time runs out to agree non-EU trade deals

    Time has almost run out to roll over EU trade deals with other countries that cover around £80bn of UK imports and exports, leaving businesses guessing as to where they will stand when the Brexit transition period ends on 1 January.Companies that trade with Canada, Mexico, Turkey and Singapore, among others, face quotas and higher tariffs that may make products more expensive for consumers and make UK exports less competitive.Some company directors fear that their businesses will not be able to absorb the extra costs.‘It might be too late for us’Best Textile, based in Liverpool, imports towels, bathrobes, blankets and bedding sets, T-shirts, hoodies and socks, among other products from a manufacturing hub in Turkey. Many of these items will attract tariffs of 12 per cent if a deal isn’t agreed.All of Best Textile’s imports into the UK are made bespoke to order and managing director Ugur Inanc worries that the business may not be viable unless current zero-tariff access continues.“Unfortunately, we don’t have information about post-Brexit trade terms which puts us in difficult situation,” he says.
    “From the beginning of the production to delivery into the UK takes six weeks. If new customs tariffs are added during this period, we cannot ask to our customers to cover it.  “We will have to pay any extra cost that didn’t exist at the beginning of our agreements with our customers. Even when we try to explain our current situation to customers, a new trade agreement with Turkey may cause a problem.“We expect the UK government to continue the current trade deal with Turkey, but it is only our expectation, and this is best scenario for us.  “If a new trade deal means tariffs are introduced, we need to find the solution to save our business. We must be informed about post-Brexit deals in advance otherwise it might be too late for us.”‘It’s a critical period’Chris Gaunt chairs the British Chamber of Commerce in Turkey, having worked in the country for almost two decades. He is hopeful that a last-minute deal with the EU will be done. That would mean trade relations with Turkey remain the same. If a deal isn’t done, bilateral negotiations with Turkey cannot start until the transition period is over.“It is a critical period just now to get an agreement in place,” says Gaunt.“No deal would mean tariffs. It would then be for Turkish exporters to look at how they deal with that with their customers in the UK. It’s not going to be a straightforward acceptance of higher costs by UK companies.An average 12 per cent tariff on textiles, for example, is “not insurmountable” he says, but it’s still, going to increase the cost of Turkish goods entering the UK.
    He points to other aspects that may mitigate some of the damage.“The increase in tariffs would not necessarily be a major deal breaker in my opinion. There are savings in reduced transports costs and lead times, for example.“We are also seeing some interest from companies looking at moving their supply chains from southeast Asia to closer to the UK, and Turkey is a country that could satisfy that. That may be another attraction.”But he hopes a long history of trade between the two nations, and a willingness on both sides to do a deal, will count for something. If there’s no deal with the EU, he envisages a bilateral agreement being signed in around six months.“We are second oldest British chamber of commerce overseas, established in 1887. That says a lot about the trading relationship going back to Ottoman times.“We’re planning for what we expect, and we expect the UK to do a last-minute deal with the EU. That’s in everybody’s interests and that would put everyone at ease.”Some businesses will be ‘really badly hit’David Pearson heads up the international trade team for the East Midlands Chamber of Commerce. Part of the chamber’s work is to act as a customs broker, processing paperwork that will be required on imports after the transition period ends.He fears that, while some firms are prepared and others are belatedly understanding the requirements they will face, others may be in for a shock.
    “The continuity agreements may only cover about 6 per cent of our exports, but equally that’s about £40bn.
    “We can’t treat every business the same. There are some that will be really badly hit if these deals are not in place.
    “If you’re a business that exports several million pounds to countries such as Canada, Turkey and, to a lesser extent Mexico, it makes a big difference to you.“It would be great if we could get them finalised. If they’re not, we want the government to be honest and say ‘we’re not going to get these deals done in time, therefore this will be the impact on your business’.“I suspect that’s not going to happen. They will keep everyone on tenterhooks right until the last minute and then say they’ve not managed it.”
    “Businesses are starting to come round to what they need to do on 1 January. A free trade agreement, which is what the UK is aiming for, will not affect the need to have a customs declaration at the border. There is a misconception there among some firms.
    “It’s not an insignificant burden.” More

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    How can Joe Biden deal with Donald Trump's obstruction in transition?

    The president-elect can learn from Franklin D Roosevelt’s response to Herbert HooverPresidential transitions are never easy, especially when they involve an incumbent president defeated at the polls. But this time the transition occurs in the midst of an unprecedented crisis. The incumbent refuses to acknowledge the vote as a rejection of his policies and has a visceral dislike for the president-elect, who he accuses of dishonesty and dismisses as too frail to assume the duties of office. He tars his successor as a socialist, an advocate of policies that will put the country on the road to ruin.The year was 1932, and the transition from Herbert Hoover to Franklin D Roosevelt occurred in the midst of an unparalleled economic depression and banking crisis. The outgoing president, Hoover, had an intense aversion to his successor, whose incapacity of concern was not any lack of mental acuity, but rather Roosevelt’s partial paralysis. He called FDR a “chameleon on plaid” and accused him of dealing “from the bottom of the deck”. In his campaign and subsequently, Hoover insinuated that FDR’s socialistic tendencies would put the country on a “march to Moscow”. Continue reading… More

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    ‘The risks are now off the table’: Wall Street looks forward to Biden presidency

    Wall Street is supposed to hate uncertainty but as the fight over the presidential contest continues, investors couldn’t be happier.
    If, as appears likely, Joe Biden wins, he will become the first president since George HW Bush to enter office without control of both the House and Senate – an outcome that indicates at least two years of legislative gridlock.
    It’s a scenario Wall Street appears to love. One that may give Republicans in the Senate little incentive to enact a new, larger coronavirus stimulus package that Democrats have hoped for and the power to block tax increases, big spending programs and tougher regulations.
    Stocks jumped again on Thursday, the first time since 1982 that the Dow and S&P 500 rose at least 1% on four straight sessions, giving the stock indices their biggest weekly gains since April, with the Dow up 7.1% week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 7.4% and 9% in the week to date.
    Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, told the Guardian: “There’s definitely some relief that things like tougher tax policy, tougher corporate reforms look to be off the table without Democrats having more control over Congress.
    “Essentially, it’s going to look more like a continuation of the status quo, which is the outcome favoured by most firms,” Jones added.
    Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, attributed some of the gains to the election’s smooth running and, notwithstanding legal challenges, the likelihood of an imminent outcome.
    Looking forward, McMillan told the Guardian, markets were encouraged by prospects that a Biden administration’s more progressive, high spending proposals are less likely to get through a politically split legislature.
    “Biden’s economic plan included substantial new corporate taxes and capital gains taxes, all of which would have been very disruptive to the market,” McMillan said. “The risks from a blue wave and a Green New Deal are now off the table.”
    Wharton professor of finance Jeremy Siegel also welcomed the result, even as the final outcome of the presidential election remained unresolved. “Truthfully that combination is excellent for the economy and it’s excellent for the markets,” Siegel told CNBC on Wednesday
    Market enthusiasm for a split government has historical roots going back decades. In 2018, after voters handed control of the lower chamber to Democrats in the midterm elections, markets soared.
    “The better-performing periods are periods where the houses were split in terms of leadership,” financial adviser Mellody Hobson noted at the time.
    Since Tuesday, markets have also been buoyed by the prospect of government infrastructure spending that could also pump billions of taxpayer dollars into an overhaul of the nation’s energy and transportation systems.
    For big tech, which is facing antitrust investigations under the Trump administration, the political scenario could also be rosy. Ahead of the election, FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) stocks, in particular, showed jitters after months of impressive pandemic gains.
    “The Street appears to have gotten the ‘Goldilocks election outcome’ for tech stocks with no ‘blue wave’ expected (Senate staying red) and a likely Biden White House now on the horizon,” said Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities in an investors note on Thursday.
    “With the Republicans likely to control the Senate, the chances of major legislative changes to antitrust law now is off the table in the eyes of investors which posed the biggest risks to tech stalwarts with a ripple impact across the sector,” Ives added.
    Ives said the likely election outcome was a “green light to buy tech stocks” and predicted that big tech stocks could rally another 10% to 15% into year-end. “We continue to be bullish on owning the secular growth stories for 2021,” he wrote. More