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      in US Politics

      US coronavirus live: number of daily Covid tests drops in threat to contain pandemic

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      733,000 people tested daily in August versus 750,000 in JulyPelosi accuses Trump of ‘openly working to destroy the post office’Warnings that changes to USPS could disenfranchise votersFrom Oakland to the White House? The rise of Kamala HarrisFlu and Covid: winter could bring ‘double-barrel’ outbreak to USSign up to our First Thing newsletter 10.39pm BSTIt’s not exactly clear what the point of this briefing is, apart from for Trump to tell America how great a job he thinks he is doing, while he trails Joe Biden in the polls. Talking of Biden, he says China “will own the United States” if Biden becomes president. He then says he wants college football to come back after several large conferences cancelled their seasons due to Covid-19. He then gives an in-depth analysis of the Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. It’s true that Trevor Lawrence is very good at football, but quite how Trump’s scouting report helps the thousands of people who have had their lives devastated by Covid-19 is beyond me. 10.34pm BSTTrump is early to the podium, which must be a first. He says there has been a “steep decline” in Covid-19 cases across the US over the last week. The man who once suggested injecting disinfectant could be a good cure for Covid-19 then says Americans should use “common sense” treatments for the virus. He insists on calling the Covid-19 the “China virus” as is his tiresome and racist custom. Related: US unemployment claims dip below 1m for first time in 21 weeks Continue reading… More

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      in Elections

      Postal service changes pose threat to voting, says former USPS deputy

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      A former top official at the United States Postal Service (USPS) has warned that recent changes at the agency, now led by a Trump ally, could “disenfranchise” voters as they are implemented just months ahead of an election in which a record number of Americans are expected to vote by mail.Amid reports of significant mail delays, Ronald Stroman, who stepped down earlier this year as the second in command at USPS, said he was concerned about the speed and timing of changes that appeared to be implemented after Louis DeJoy, the new postmaster general, took office in June. USPS faces a financial crisis and every postmaster general is interested in cost savings and efficiency, Stroman said, but the question was how to balance those changes with the public’s needs.“The concern is not only that you’re doing this in a pandemic, but a couple of months before an election with enormous consequences,” said Stroman, now a senior fellow at the Democracy Fund. “If you can’t right the ship, if you can’t correct these fast enough, the consequence is not just, OK, people don’t get their mail, it’s that you disenfranchise people.“Making these changes this close to an election is a high-risk proposition,” he added.Some delays this year have been because USPS workers have been unable to work during the Covid-19 pandemic. But fears increased after DeJoy, a major Trump donor with no prior USPS experience, took over the agency. Shortly after he started at the postal service, the Washington Post and other news organizations obtained internal documents saying the agency was prohibiting overtime and that postal workers should leave mail behind at processing plants if it would cause them to leave late.Mark Jamison, a former postmaster in North Carolina who retired from the agency in 2012, said the idea of leaving first class mail – which includes letters with a regular stamp – was anathema to the culture of USPS. “The rule has always been you clear every piece of first class mail out of a plant every day, period,” he said. “There has never been, never, in the 30 years I worked for the post office, there has never been a time when you curtail first class mail.”Philadelphia residents have reported going upwards of three weeks without mail and postal workers told the Philadelphia Inquirer mail was piling up in local offices. Veterans and employees of the Department of Veterans Affairs have reported mail delays in fulfilling prescriptions. In Minneapolis, USPS temporarily stopped mail-delivery to a high-rise building, home to many low-income and immigrant residents, over concern of Covid-19 spread. In April, some Wisconsin residents reported never receiving ballots they requested for a statewide election. Democrats in Congress have opened an investigation into the delays and asked the USPS inspector general to probe the matter as well.“I mean come on, we’ve got a pandemic, you’re social distancing, people are calling in sick, you’re going to cut out overtime now? That just makes no sense,” Jamison said. “It’s unconscionable what they’re doing.”David Partenheimer, a USPS spokesman, said there was no blanket ban on overtime. The agency declined to say whether employees were being instructed to leave mail behind.There is concern the delays could last into November and disenfranchise many Americans. The majority of US states require absentee ballots to arrive by election day, regardless of when the voter puts them in the mail, in order to be counted. USPS has long advised voters to put their ballots in the mail a week ahead of election day to ensure they arrive in time to be counted (some states continue to allow voters to request a ballot up until days before the election). At least 65,000 ballots were rejected in primaries this year because they arrived too late, according to NPR.USPS denies it is slowing down the mail and DeJoy said the agency had “ample capacity” to deliver mail ballots on time. “While I certainly have a good relationship with the president of the United States, the notion that I would ever make decisions concerning the Postal Service at the direction of the president, or anyone else in the administration, is wholly off-base,” he said on Friday at a meeting of the USPS board of governors.There is also some concern about the cost different states will have to pay to send ballots. Some states send ballots as marketing mail, which is less expensive than first class mail and has an expected delivery time of three to 10 days (first class mail is typically delivered faster). In the past, USPS has quickly moved official election mail regardless of the class of service, but in recent weeks the agency has signaled it will not expedite election mail and election officials will get the service they pay for.Some Democrats have suggested this amounts to a USPS threat to raise postage on mail-in ballots, a characterization USPS strongly disputes.“There are currently no pending changes to the rates and classes of mail impacting ballots,” Martha Johnson, a USPS spokeswoman said in a statement. “The baseless assertion that we intend to raise prices in advance of the upcoming presidential election in order to restrict voting by mail is wholly without merit, and frivolous. The Postmaster General and the organization he leads is fully committed to fulfilling our role in the electoral process.” More

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      in US Politics

      What the weakening dollar means for the global economy

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      A near 10% drop in the value of the US dollar since its March high has given rise to two distinct narratives. The first takes a short-term perspective, focusing on how a depreciation could benefit the US economy and markets; the second takes the long view, fretting over the dollar’s fragile status as the world’s reserve currency. Both narratives contain some truth, but not enough to justify the emerging consensus around them.Several factors have combined to put downward pressure on the greenback (as measured by the DXY index of trade-weighted currencies) in recent weeks, resulting in a depreciation that has reversed almost half of the appreciation of the last 10 years within the space of months.As the US Federal Reserve has loosened monetary policy (actually and prospectively) in response to a worsening economic outlook, the income accruing to dollar-denominated safe havens, such as US government bonds, has declined. And with US-based investments having lost some of their attractiveness, there has been a shift in holdings in favour of emerging markets and Europe (where the European Union last month agreed to pursue deeper fiscal integration).There also are indicators of lower capital inflows into the United States. House purchases by foreigners appear to have decreased again, owing in part to the US government’s embrace of inward-looking policies and the weaponisation of trade and sanction measures.With the exception of Lebanon, Turkey and a few other countries that have experienced even sharper exchange-rate depreciations than the US, most currencies have strengthened against the dollar. But among those with appreciating currencies, the reactions to this generalised phenomenon have been far from uniform.Some countries, particularly in the developing world, have welcomed the reversal, because their previous currency weakness had been contributing to higher import prices, including for foodstuffs. Moreover, a weaker dollar provides them with greater scope to support domestic economic activities through more stimulative fiscal and monetary measures.But the reaction has been less welcoming in the other advanced economies. Japan and eurozone member states, in particular, fear that currency appreciation could threaten their own economic recovery from the Covid-19 shock. Also, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank now have to worry that they are not only reaching the limits of their policy effectiveness, but could also be putting their economies at greater risk of collateral damage and unintended consequences.In the US, meanwhile, the dollar’s depreciation has been welcomed as an overwhelmingly positive development for the economy, at least in the short term. After all, economic textbooks tell us that a weakening dollar boosts US producers’ international and domestic competitiveness relative to foreign competitors, makes the country more attractive for foreign investors and tourism (in price terms), and increases the dollar value of revenue earned overseas by home-based companies. That is also all good for US stock and corporate bond markets, which benefit further from the greater attractiveness of dollar-denominated securities when they are priced in a foreign currency.The longer-term consensus view is less positive for the US. The worry is that dollar depreciation will further erode the currency’s global status, which has already been weakened by the US policies of the past three years – from protectionism and weaponised sanctions to bypassing global standards and the rule of law.The more the dollar’s credibility is eroded, the more the US risks losing the “exorbitant privilege” that comes with issuing the world’s main reserve currency. A country in this position can exchange bits of printed paper or digital entries – currency creation – for the goods and services that other countries produce. It enjoys disproportionate influence over important multilateral decisions and appointments. And it benefits from others’ willingness to outsource to its own institutions the management of their financial wealth.Both of these (partly true) consensus narratives imply further significant dollar depreciation. While the immediate effects are theoretically positive, the practical situation is likely to be different, because so much economic activity is currently impaired by government restrictions and the reluctance of individuals and companies to return to previous consumption and production patterns. Around half of US states have now reversed or halted the process of economic reopening.Moreover, today’s positive market effects demand further qualification beyond the health crisis. Owing to the reliable and ample provision of liquidity, particularly by central banks, most valuations have already decoupled from economic and corporate fundamentals. Under these financial conditions, it is hard to imagine that a dollar depreciation will have any more than a marginal effect on real economic performance.As for the dollar’s role as a reserve currency, I am reminded of a simple principle I learned at university: it is hard to replace something with nothing. At this time, there simply is no other currency that can or will fill the dollar’s shoes. Instead, we will continue to see small pipes being built around the dollar. And, because none of these will be large enough to replace it, the eventual result will be a more fragmented international monetary system.As has happened before, the current consensus views on the dollar will probably end up overstating the long-term implications of short-term movements. Today’s dollar weakness is neither a boon to markets and the US economy nor an augury of the currency’s global downfall. But it is part of a larger, gradual fragmentation of the international economic order. The main factor in that process is the shocking lack of international policy coordination at a time of rising global challenges.• Mohamed El-Erian is chief economic adviser at Allianz. He served as chair of President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council and is a former deputy director at the IMF© Project Syndicate More

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      in US Politics

      Yes, some US small business owners actually support the $600 weekly benefit | Gene Marks

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      About 30 million unemployed Americans are now on tenterhooks waiting to see if the $600-a-week federal unemployment benefit created by the Cares Act will be renewed. As the political row over its efficacy and necessity continues, the House and the Senate remain far apart on a compromise.What shouldn’t be left out of the discussion is an unlikely, yet numerous, group of people who do support the added benefit: small business owners.The issue is complicated.Many I know in the business community have taken issue with the additional $600 federal payment. They complain that a great number of their workers – particularly hourly and part-timers – have avoided returning to the workplace because the benefit provides them with more compensation then they were getting at their job and merely incentivizes them to stop working.But some studies – like this one from a group of Yale University researchers – have found the opposite to be true. The study found “no evidence” that workers receiving the added federal unemployment benefit were disincentivized to work and that “people with more generously expanded benefits also resumed working at a similar or slightly quicker rate than others did”.However, as the Wall Street Journal points out, the study excluded part-time workers and other “short-termers” who make up the vast majority of employees that benefited the most from the federal bump. “A worker in Louisiana who made $2,400 from part-time jobs all of last year would collect $2,516 a month in jobless benefits today – $29 a week from the state plus the $600. An average worker who had made $17 per hour ($680 a week) in Ohio has been able to collect $940 each week with the federal boost.”The debate will continue.But many small business owners remain convinced the payments should continue. Why? Because it has provided a safety net for their employees during a time when their companies couldn’t pay wages due to the country’s self-inflicted economic collapse.“We want them to succeed, and we want to help them grow their careers, and we hope to continue to employ them well into the future,” Mark Frier, a restaurant owner in Vermont told NPR’s Marketplace. “Initially [the federal benefit] was a lifesaver.” Frier is just one of many business owners who have been unable to sustain employee wages – even with help from the paycheck protection program – and who are grateful that there’s an added federal benefit available to help them through these times.Julie Wineinger, the owner of Lulabelle’s Sweet Shop in Washington DC, has gone out of her way to assist her employees in applying for unemployment benefits. She has also run fundraisers – selling ice cream and other products – specifically to raise additional cash in order to help her staff through these difficult times. “Some of my employees are very young, some have to support families,” she told me in a podcast interview. “They didn’t ask for this and I’m going to do my best to do what I can for them.”One of the many benefits of working for a small business is that employees oftentimes develop close relationships with their employers. When bad things happen – a family illness, a financial problem, a global pandemic that causes an unprecedented economic downturn – many small business owners are as much concerned with their employees’ welfare as their own families. Because they are like family.But these same employees are also assets, which is why many small business owners I know are in favor of the additional federal unemployment benefit. Knowing that the benefit is there, they could furlough their staff and not terminate them. Without these checks, those employees who have worked for them for years and gained experience and knowledge of their businesses may be forced to move elsewhere or take other jobs in order to make ends meet. When that happens, small business owners like Wineinger and others lose good people and have to search and train replacements. That creates disruption and added costs.Maybe the added federal benefit does discourage some from going back to work, particularly part-timers and hourly workers. And it is true that many small businesses are finding this situation a frustrating obstacle towards rehiring and getting back to normal. But for many other small business owners, that additional $600 check every week has helped them retain and sustain their employees during an unprecedented national emergency until times – hopefully – get back to normal. More

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      in US Politics

      US Postal Service announces cost-saving changes amid vote-by-mail fears

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      The United States Postal Service (USPS) is implementing cost-saving measures, including a management hiring freeze , the US postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, announced on Friday, amid reports of severe mail delays across the US and concern that Donald Trump is maneuvering to weaken the agency to make it difficult to accommodate an expected influx of mail-in votes.The changes will not result in an immediate reduction of the USPS workforce, the agency said in a statement. USPS added, however, that “to prepare for future changes” it was seeking approval to allow some non-union employees to take a voluntary early retirement. DeJoy, a major Republican donor without any prior USPS experience, said the changes were needed to address the postal service’s “dire” financial situation.Last month, USPS employees were told the agency was prohibiting overtime and employees were instructed to leave mail behind if it delayed them on their routes, according to documents obtained by the Washington Post.In recent weeks, places across the US have reported long delays; some neighborhoods in Philadelphia, for example, reported some residents were going longer than three weeks without receiving mail, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.There are worries mail delays could leave many Americans disenfranchised in the November election. Dozens of states – including key swing states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania – all require ballots to arrive by election night in order to be counted. More than 65,000 mail-in votes have been rejected during the 2020 primaries and observers are worried that slower mail could lead to more people getting disenfranchised this fall.Senator Gary Peters, a Democrat from Michigan, announced on Thursday he was investigating the delays and the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, sent a letter to DeJoy urging him to reverse the changes. Democrats have also asked the USPS inspector general to look into the changes.DeJoy disputed on Friday that the changes at USPS were motivated by partisanship.“While I certainly have a good relationship with the president of the United States, the notion that I would ever make decisions concerning the Postal Service at the direction of the president, or anyone else in the administration, is wholly off-base,” he said Friday. “Despite any assertions to the contrary, we are not slowing down election mail or any other mail.”DeJoy said the postal service had “ample” capacity to deliver election mail and deflected responsibility for any mail delays that could potentially occur. He noted USPS had long had delivery standards in place.“We cannot correct the errors of the election boards if they fail to deploy processes that take our normal processing and delivery standards into account,” he said.USPS has long advised voters to put their ballots in the mail at least a week before election day. But many states allow voters to continue to request ballots within that window, making it unlikely that they can get their ballot delivered in time. While DeJoy seemed to blame local election officials for that problem, state legislators are actually the ones who bear the responsibility for changing the deadlines, said Tammy Patrick, a senior adviser at the Democracy Fund who is an expert in vote-by-mail procedures.In the past, USPS has “bent over backwards” to deliver ballots in a timely way close to election deadlines, Patrick said. But now, she said, the postal service was sending mixed messages about whether or not they would go to such lengths to ensure delivery this fall.“They haven’t said, ‘We are dedicated to election mail, even if it means overtime,’” she said.USPS officials have also signaled recently that they are going to more strictly enforce the delivery times guaranteed by the different classes of mail election officials choose to use for their mailings, Patrick said.Some states, particularly those in the western US that automatically mail ballots to every voter, send their election mail as marketing mail, which allows them to send it at a lower cost. Marketing mail had a guaranteed delivery time of three to 10 days, but USPS has traditionally given prioritized attention to ballots that have an official election mail logo. More recently, Patrick said, USPS officials have emphasized officials will get speed for the delivery they pay for. More

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      in US Politics

      Another 1.18m Americans file for unemployment as benefits expire

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      Another 1.18 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week as economists worry the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits will lead to a sharp drop-off in household spending and set back the US economy’s near-term recovery.Claims dipped last week after two weeks of rises and were the lowest since March but the latest figure from the department of labor marked the 19th week in a row that claims have topped 1m. Before the coronavirus pandemic gripped the US, the record for weekly claims was 695,000 in October 1982.The figures come ahead of Friday’s monthly snapshot of the job market. Economists expect the unemployment rate to have dipped to 10.6% in July from 11.1% in June, a significant drop but still three times the pre-pandemic level.Americans have been receiving an extra $600 in emergency benefits since March as part of the government’s coronavirus stimulus package. But that agreement expired at the end of last month and Congress is split over a possible extension. About 30 million people have been receiving the extra cash and it has accounted for 15% of all weekly wages paid in the US.The expiration of the benefits without any replacement would likely cause a surge in evictions, hunger and poverty as well as having consequences for the wider economy.According to the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) the knock-on effect of removing that cash from the economy could be severe. The EPI estimated 5mn jobs could be lost by July 2021 if it is cut as consumers are forced to cut back on spending.“The $600 benefit is essential for millions of people to get food, to pay rent, to care for their children, to afford basic necessities. If it is cut off, it will mean a sharp decline in their living standards, an increase in poverty, and completely unnecessary suffering,” Heidi Shierholz, EPI senior economist and director of policy, wrote recently.“The spending generated by that $600 is supporting over 5m jobs. In other words, kill the $600 and you will kill 5m jobs – jobs in every single state,” she wrote.A recent paper from the JP Morgan and The University of Chicago argued that allowing the extra payment to expire could “meaningfully reduce” consumption. Eliminating the benefit “could result in large spending cuts and thus potential negative effects on macroeconomic activity”, the authors concluded.If the $600 payments expire and are nor replaced, the authors project that US consumption will 4.2% – a drop that exceeds the entire 2.9% fall in the Great Recession.🚨 new predictions of effects of alternative UI benefit supplements 🚨The UI supplements have expired. Congress is considering a range of options.What will happen to 1) *consumption*2) *UI replacement rates*Thread w/@JoeVavra @pascaljnoel pic.twitter.com/YdENQzgzBY— Peter Ganong (@p_ganong) July 31, 2020 More