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      Your Friday Briefing: A Year of War

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      Also, Nigeria’s upcoming election and healthcare protests in China.Workers reinforced a checkpoint in Kyiv with sandbags.Emile Ducke for The New York TimesOne year of warUkraine is bracing for potential Russian attacks timed to the anniversary of the war today. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has warned of a symbolic “revenge” assault from Russia around the one-year mark of Moscow’s invasion. Schools across Ukraine are holding classes remotely, people have been advised to avoid large gatherings and additional security measures are being put in place. We have updates here.One year on, virtually no one in Ukraine has avoided the violence, destruction and bloodshed of the war, which has killed tens of thousands, left millions homeless and turned entire cities into ruins. But the foreboding that gripped Ukraine in the days before the invasion has long faded.Now, many people in Ukraine said that they had found strength in the shared sacrifice and the collective struggle for survival. Some have become accustomed to the air-raid sirens and warnings. One 30-year-old Ukrainian said those things had become a part of everyday life, “like brushing my teeth.”A global look: The U.S. tried to isolate Russia by imposing sweeping sanctions along with its Western partners. But the rest of the world has taken a more neutral approach to the war, including India and China, as our graphic shows.The latest on weapons: Poland said that it was close to finalizing a deal worth $10 billion to buy additional U.S.-made HIMARS rocket launchers and related equipment, as part of a rapid military buildup. As the West scrambles to find munitions for Ukraine’s Soviet-era weapons, it is turning to arms factories across Eastern Europe.China: Janet Yellen, the U.S. treasury secretary, warned Beijing against helping Russia evade sanctions, at a meeting of G20 finance ministers in India. She also said that the U.S. planned to unveil additional sanctions on Russia.Officials sorted voter cards in Lagos last month, ahead of the election.Pius Utomi Ekpei/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesNigeria votesNigerians head to the polls tomorrow to choose a new president in the most wide-open race in years. The presidential candidates for the two major parties, which have alternated power for over two decades, are facing a surprise, third-party challenger.In the lead-up to voting day, a decision by Nigeria’s government to replace its currency caused chaos. Voters are furious at the governing party over a shortage of new bank notes, and protests could disrupt voting in parts of the country.Lynsey Chutel, our Briefing writer based in Johannesburg, spoke with our West Africa bureau chief, Ruth Maclean, who is in Abuja to cover the election. Here’s what Ruth said about what’s at stake.“When I interviewed Peter Obi, one of the three main candidates, the other day, he described this as an ‘existential election.’ I think that’s how many Nigerians feel, particularly young Nigerians who were involved in the EndSARS movement a couple of years ago, protesting against police violence, but also against everything they saw going wrong in Nigeria. Many of them have left or are trying to leave the country. If their chosen candidate wins, maybe some will stay, or come back,” Ruth said.As populations in wealthy countries grow older, Africa’s median age is getting younger. In Nigeria, half of the population of more than 200 million is 18 and under.“If Nigeria is safe and prosperous, it brightens life for a whole generation of Africans,” Ruth said.A protest against health care cuts in Wuhan last week.Keith Bradsher/The New York TimesHealth care protests in ChinaThousands of seniors in China are protesting abrupt cuts to their health insurance. The changes were enacted by local governments, and highlight their struggle to recover from the costs of implementing the central government’s expensive “zero Covid” policies for nearly three years.One of the most immediate problems is that municipal insurance funds are running out of money. To free up cash, municipalities have started contributing much less to personal health accounts, the insurance that middle-class people use to pay for medicine and outpatient care. Seniors are most vulnerable to the changes, which include higher costs and reduced benefits.Protests have taken place in the northeastern city of Dalian, in Guangzhou, and in Wuhan in central China, where the Covid pandemic began at the end of 2019. Wuhan’s hospitals responded with an effective but expensive effort to contain the outbreak, and are now implementing some of the sharpest cuts to personal health accounts.Context: The cuts are a symptom of China’s overlapping economic struggles. The country is aging rapidly, and more retirees mean more health care needs. Yet the main source of municipal revenue has shriveled as real estate developers buy less public land because of a housing shakeout.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificRescuers at the site of the mine collapse in northern China’s Inner Mongolia.CCTV, via Associated PressRescuers are working to save 53 coal miners who are missing after a mine collapsed in northern China.The European Commission banned TikTok from most of its employees’ phones, citing security concerns.The temporary suspension of Peter Bol, an Australian Olympic runner, over doping allegations has opened a national debate over testing procedures.Around the WorldLawmakers in Mexico gutted the country’s election watchdog, a change that comes ahead of next year’s presidential contest.Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump were subpoenaed by the special counsel investigating Donald Trump.The U.S. nominated Ajay Banga, the former chief executive of Mastercard, to lead the World Bank.Other Big StoriesMaternal mortality rates have fallen in many countries across Asia, but have increased in the U.S. and Europe, the W.H.O. reported.Turkey is scrutinizing Turkish builders after the recent earthquake that killed more than 43,000 people in the country.A British pilot program of a four-day workweek won converts: 92 percent of participating companies plan to continue with the approach.The Week in CultureHarvey Weinstein was sentenced to 16 years in prison for sex crimes in Los Angeles.Alec Baldwin pleaded not guilty to involuntary manslaughter for the fatal shooting of a cinematographer on a film set.The singer R. Kelly was sentenced to 20 years in prison for child sex crimes.A Morning ReadThe new drinks are branded Oleato, which can mean oiled or greaseproof in Italian.Valentina Za/ReutersStarbucks is testing out a new ingredient that it believes will draw the Italian masses to its coffee: olive oil. A golden foam espresso martini is one of five oily options.ARTS AND IDEASChatGPT’s scary banalityWhen the movies imagined A.I., they pictured the wrong disaster, our critic A.O. Scott writes. Instead of the chilling rationality of HAL in “2001: A Space Odyssey,” we got the drearier, very human awfulness of Microsoft’s Sydney. Because when real chatbots finally came about, they learned from what humans have expressed online, which can often be deceitful, irrational and plain old mean.“We’re more or less reconciled to the reality that machines are, in some ways, smarter than we are,” Scott writes. “We also enjoy the fantasy that they might turn out to be more sensitive. We’re therefore not prepared for the possibility that they might be chaotic, unstable and resentful — as messy as we are, or maybe more so.”In China: Tech companies making chatbots are facing hurdles from the government.And in the arts: Science fiction magazines are being flooded with stories written by chatbots. They’re “bad in spectacular ways,” one editor said.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookColin Clark for The New York TimesFor a weekend project, make Swedish cardamom buns.What to Read“Win Every Argument” and “Say the Right Thing” offer different approaches to talking to others.What to WatchIn “Yanagawa,” by the Chinese filmmaker Zhang Lu, two brothers reconnect over a lost love.HealthLearn about the wild world inside your gut.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Bashful (three letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. Have a lovely weekend! — Amelia and LynseyP.S. Will Shortz, our puzzle editor, talked to The New Yorker about his life in crosswords.“The Daily” is on a U.S. Supreme Court case about social media.If you ever want to reach me, I’m available at briefing@nytimes.com. Thanks!  More

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      Your Thursday Briefing: Key Meetings for Biden and Putin

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      Also, another deadly Israeli raid in the West Bank and South Korea’s fight over L.G.B.T.Q. rights.In this photograph, provided by Russian state media, President Vladimir Putin meets with China’s top foreign policy official at the Kremlin.Anton Novoderezhkin/Sputnik, via ReutersBiden and Putin build up alliancesPresident Biden met with leaders from NATO’s eastern flank in Warsaw, while President Vladimir Putin welcomed China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, in Moscow. As Russia’s war in Ukraine appears set to drag on, both are trying to shore up allegiances.Biden reminded Eastern European leaders that they know “what’s at stake in this conflict, not just for Ukraine, but for the freedom of democracies throughout Europe and around the world.” He vowed to defend America’s NATO allies, which are most at risk from Russia’s aggression.In his talks with Wang, Putin noted that President Xi Jinping of China was expected to visit Russia, but indicated that the meeting had yet to be confirmed. The Kremlin is working to keep China in Russia’s corner amid a flurry of diplomacy across Europe by Beijing. The threat of U.S. sanctions looms if China were to increase its economic support for Russia.A pro-war rally: Putin told a crowd of tens of thousands of people gathered at a Moscow stadium that “there is a battle underway on our historical borders, for our people.” It was probably the most public celebration of war that Russia has mounted since the invasion.The battleground: A barrage of Russian missiles struck Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine, and nearly a dozen explosions were reported overnight in Russian-held territory, including in Mariupol, which suggests that Ukraine has increased attacks on Russian positions deep behind the front lines.The aftermath of clashes in the West Bank city of Nablus.Majdi Mohammed/Associated Press10 Palestinians killed in Israeli raidPalestinian officials said at least 10 Palestinians were killed and more than 100 others wounded in an hourslong gun battle between Israeli security forces and armed Palestinian groups in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The region is bracing for more unrest.Israel’s military said that the rare daytime firefight occurred during an operation to arrest Palestinian gunmen in Nablus. Six of the dead were fighters, several armed Palestinian groups said. But four had no known affiliation with any armed faction. Videos circulating on social media seemed to show that at least two people were shot with their backs to gunfire.Palestinian officials say this has been the deadliest start to a year for Palestinians in the West Bank since 2000, prompting comparisons with the Palestinian insurgency known as the second intifada. Nearly 60 Palestinians have been killed so far.The State of the WarBiden’s Kyiv Visit: President Biden traveled covertly to the besieged Ukrainian capital, hoping to demonstrate American resolve and boost shellshocked Ukrainians. But the trip was also the first of several direct challenges to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.Contrasting Narratives: In sharply opposed speeches, Mr. Biden said Mr. Putin bore sole responsibility for the war, while Mr. Putin said Russia had invaded in self-defense. But they agreed the war would not end soon.Nuclear Treaty: Mr. Putin announced that Russia would suspend its participation in the New START nuclear arms control treaty — the last major such agreement remaining with the United States.In the North: A different sort of war game is playing out in northern Ukraine, where Russian shelling is tying up thousands of Ukrainian troops that might otherwise defend against attacks farther south.A heavy toll: Palestinians say there’s an increased readiness among Israeli soldiers to shoot to kill. Israelis attribute the high death toll to a proliferation of guns and an increased readiness among Palestinians to fire instead of surrendering. Analysts said the timing of the raids — during the day instead of during the night, when the army usually conducts its operations — was a factor. During the day, residents are more likely to get caught in the crossfire or join the clashes.A Pride event in Seoul last year.Anthony Wallace/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesSouth Korea’s stalled same-sex equality billL.G.B.T.Q. people in South Korea got a welcome victory this week when a court ordered the national health insurance service to provide spousal coverage to same-sex couples. But a broader bill that aims to prevent discrimination against sexual minorities is being blocked in the National Assembly.The Anti-Discrimination Act, which was first introduced decades ago, has faced tough opposition from a powerful Christian conservative lobby, despite the growing social acceptance of sexual minorities in South Korea. Opponents of the bill say their ranks are growing. They have prayed in public against the bill, flooded politicians’ phones with texts and persuaded school boards to remove books with transgender characters from libraries.Public support: A recent Gallup poll found that about 57 percent of adults in South Korea were in favor of the broader bill. Supporters see the failure to pass it as an example of how laws are out of step with the times.Region: Legislation recognizing same-sex equality has found support in other Asian countries. In Thailand, a law protecting queer rights took effect in 2015. In Taiwan, discrimination against sexual minorities has been illegal for about 15 years.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificThe chip maker announced the factory expansion in December.Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York TimesA Taiwanese computer chip giant’s $40 billion investment in an Arizona factory has stoked apprehension among employees.The disappearance of Bao Fan, a deal maker in China’s tech industry, threatens to upend Beijing’s promise to support private enterprise, our columnist Li Yuan writes.A U.S. judge rejected a bid by families of Sept. 11 victims to seize $3.5 billion in frozen Afghan funds as compensation for their losses.Around the WorldA British court upheld a ruling that stripped a woman of her citizenship after she left the country to join ISIS in Syria as a teenager.The U.S. government could run out of cash by summer if it doesn’t raise the debt limit, according to a new estimate.Nearly all of the U.S. is experiencing ice, snow or unseasonably warm temperatures this week. Air travel has been disrupted.An alligator killed an 85-year-old woman on a walk with her dog in Florida.Science NewsNew research shows that PFAS compounds, linked to cancer, are turning up in wild animal species around the world.In people with advanced H.I.V., mpox has a death rate of about 15 percent, researchers reported.Scientists say a drought in Argentina last year was not directly caused by climate change, but global warming was a factor in the extreme heat that made it worse.A Morning ReadNate Ryan for The New York TimesRaghavan Iyer has by some estimations taught more Americans how to cook Indian food than anyone else. For five years, he has been living with cancer. Now, in his final days, Iyer is building a database of comfort-food recipes, organized by cuisine and medical condition, for other terminally ill patients.He’s also getting ready for the release of his final book, an exploration of curry powder, which comes out next week.ARTS AND IDEASRam Charan, left, and N.T. Rama Rao Jr., dancing during “Naatu Naatu.”DVV EntertainmentHow a dance hit came together“Naatu Naatu,” from the Indian blockbuster “RRR,” is nominated for the Academy Award for best original song, a first for an Indian production.Set in 1920s colonial India, the film features “Naatu Naatu” in a scene where two friends square off against a British bully who wants to eject them from a lawn party. The director, S.S. Rajamouli, conceived the musical number as a kind of fight sequence, with fiery steps instead of punches. (You can watch it here.)The giddy choreography and propulsive rhythm draw from local traditions. The song’s composer used Indian skin drums called duffs, whose sound he compared to the traditional beats of folk songs celebrated in villages. In Telugu, the language of the film, “naatu” means “raw and rustic.”For more: Read our review of “RRR.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookAndrew Scrivani for The New York TimesThese vegan banana cookies are a good breakfast treat.What to Read“Sink,” a memoir, recounts a Black boyhood in Philadelphia.What to Listen toSZA’s “SOS” is now the longest-running No. 1 album by a woman since Adele’s “25” seven years ago.Where to GoSki in Sälen, a snowy Swedish fairy tale.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and here’s a clue: Cried (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. A.O. Scott, The Times’s longtime film critic, will move to the Book Review to write essays and reviews that grapple with literature, ideas and intellectual life.“The Daily” is about U.S. moves to legalize psychedelics as a medical treatment.We welcome your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: Biden Travels to Kyiv

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      Also, another earthquake strikes Turkey and Syria.President Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky visited St. Michael’s monastery in downtown Kyiv.Daniel Berehulak/The New York TimesBiden’s surprise tripPresident Biden took a nearly 10-hour train ride from Poland to Ukraine’s capital to show the U.S.’s “unwavering commitment” to support Ukraine.As air-raid sirens sounded, Biden strolled in the sunshine and visited a monastery in downtown Kyiv with his host, President Volodymyr Zelensky. Biden promised $500 million in additional military aid but did not talk about the advanced weaponry that Ukraine was appealing for.“One year later, Kyiv stands,” Biden said during a news conference with Zelensky just four days ahead of the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion. “And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands.”Biden’s first trip to Ukraine since the war began was shrouded in secrecy. The U.S. alerted Russia about his plans hours before he arrived in Kyiv. Two reporters traveling with Biden agreed to keep details embargoed until the trip was over. Biden was in Kyiv for less than six hours before the Secret Service whisked him out of the city.Today: The contest between Biden and President Vladimir Putin will intensify when the two leaders deliver speeches, several hours and hundreds of miles apart. Putin will deliver a state-of-the-nation address in Moscow. Biden will speak in Warsaw.On the front line: While Russia has relied on prisoners and mercenaries to do some of its fighting, all ranks of society have been mobilized in Ukraine. Among them was a couple who shared a trench on the front line — and died in it.Xi Jinping is trying to keep Russia close and also repair ties with Western powers.Pool photo by Alexei DruzhininWill China help arm Russia?As Russian state media reported that China’s most senior foreign policy official had arrived in Moscow, Beijing bristled against the U.S. claim that it was poised to give Russia “lethal support.” Such a step would be a major shift for China and would transform the war into a struggle between three superpowers.China accused the Biden administration of spreading lies. “It’s the U.S., and not China, that has been incessantly supplying weapons to the battlefield,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said, “and the U.S. is not qualified to issue any orders to China.”The State of the WarPortending a Global Rift: Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said that China is strongly considering giving military aid to Russia, a move that would transform the war into a struggle involving three superpowers.Western Support: Nearly one year into the war, American and European leaders pledged to remain steadfast in their support for Ukraine amid worries about how long their resolve will last.Harris’s Comments: Vice President Kamala Harris declared that the United States had formally concluded that Russia had committed “crimes against humanity” in its invasion of Ukraine.A Russian Mole in Germany?: A director at Germany’s spy service was arrested on suspicion of passing intelligence to Russia. German officials and allies worry just how deep the problem goes.Beijing defended its ties to Moscow and insisted that it was a neutral observer trying only to coax Russia and Ukraine into peace talks. While China has supported Russia in nonmilitary ways, sending it weapons would deeply alarm the U.S. and Europe at a time when Beijing is trying to rebuild global ties after years of pandemic isolation.President Biden has stressed to Xi Jinping, China’s leader, that any such move would have far-reaching consequences. The warnings to China revealed that the Biden administration believes Beijing is close to crossing the line.What’s next: A Kremlin spokesman said that the Chinese official, Wang Yi, may meet with President Vladimir Putin while in Moscow.Many people are traumatized from the earlier quake.Clodagh Kilcoyne/ReutersAnother earthquake strikesA powerful new earthquake shook southern Turkey and northwestern Syria, two weeks after a powerful double tremor killed more than 46,000 people and left more than a million homeless. Here are updates.The 6.3-magnitude quake struck yesterday afternoon in Hatay Province in Turkey, an area that had already suffered widespread damage from collapsed buildings.The new quake spread panic among survivors, many of whom are staying in tents or sleeping in their cars because they remain too scared to go inside any buildings. A district mayor said that people were trapped under the debris: “People are screaming for their lives.” In Syria: People were hospitalized after being hurt in stampedes, the state-run news media reported. In rebel-held territory, the White Helmets, a local rescue organization, also reported stampedes and said people had jumped from balconies to escape buildings.U.S.-Turkey tensions: During a visit to Ankara, Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, pledged to keep helping Turkey recover. But there were few signs of progress on disputes over F-16 sales and NATO.THE LATEST NEWSAround the WorldAmmar Awad/ReutersTens of thousands of protesters gathered in Jerusalem as Israeli lawmakers prepared to hold the first votes on bills that would curb the judiciary’s power.British police found the body of Nicola Bulley, whose disappearance prompted a national debate over privacy and the treatment of missing women.The U.S. and Canadian militaries have ended the search for the remnants of downed U.F.O.s over Alaska and northern Canada.Other Big StoriesSome pieces are believed to have once been worn by Angkor royalty.Cambodia Ministry of Culture & Fine ArtsCambodia said it had recovered 77 gold relics from the collection of a British art dealer, who died in 2020 and was accused of antiquities trafficking.Deaths in U.S. prisons rose nearly 50 percent during the pandemic’s first year, according to data examined by The Times.A doodle appears to show Leonardo da Vinci’s ideas in deconstructing gravity, long before Galileo and Newton.An alligator was found in a Brooklyn lake. It may have been someone’s pet. OpinionsBig tech companies should be liable for the illegal conduct that their platforms enable, Julia Angwin writes.Nicholas Kristof argues that the U.S. should give Ukraine all of the weaponry the country needs to end the war, despite the risk of escalation.A Morning ReadFabio Bucciarelli for The New York TimesThe Duomo, Milan’s beloved landmark, has needed constant care basically since 1386, when construction began.The cathedral is crafted from rare, pink-hued marble that is particularly fragile. Now, climate change and pollution are adding to the challenges of preservation.ARTS AND IDEASNurse burnoutThe pandemic made nursing even harder in the U.S.: Nurses are burned out and exhausted. Some have left the profession. About 43 percent are considering it, according to a recent survey by the American Nurses Foundation.“It’s hard to talk about mental health,” said Kathleen Littleton, one of several trained nurses who spoke to The Times about their challenges. “In nursing, sometimes it’s frowned upon when people say, ‘Oh I feel so burned out.’ It’s almost like a shameful way to approach it.” She now works for an insurance company.Today’s burnout could make for long-term shortages. There’s still high interest in the field, but fewer experienced nurses mean fewer opportunities for students to get in-hospital training. That, in turn, leads to nursing schools not producing enough graduates to fill the gap.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookArmando Rafael for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.These coconut-stuffed pancakes are enjoyed along the western coast of India.What to ReadIn “Every Man a King,” class and racial divisions collide as a Black ex-cop investigates a kidnapping in New York City.What to Watch“All Quiet on the Western Front” won seven BAFTA awards, including best film. Read our review.HealthUse this guide to avoid harmful chemicals in beauty products.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Got rid of (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you tomorrow. — AmeliaP.S. The Times won three George Polk Awards, two for its coverage of the war in Ukraine. I’d love to hear from you. You can write at briefing@nytimes.com. I read every note. More

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      Beware: we could be entering a dangerous new era of US-China relations | Christopher S Chivvis

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      Beware: we could be entering a dangerous new era of US-China relationsChristopher S ChivvisIncidents like the Chinese spying balloon could too easily spiral out of control in the future, ending in disaster Much uncertainty still surrounds China’s balloon spying program and the other mysterious objects that have now been identified over North American airspace. One thing seems certain, however: incidents like these could too easily spiral out of control in the future, ending in disaster. Unless something is done, dangerous waters lie ahead. Unfortunately, both sides are reluctant to do what’s needed.Biden waited long to address the mysterious flying objects. Now we know why | Margaret SullivanRead moreLet’s make no bones about it. It would be better if China didn’t spy on the United States. Any US leader would be hard pressed not to shoot down a Chinese object that the American public has seen flying over US sovereign airspace – as President Biden decided to do on 4 February. But the reality is that events like this will be more and more likely in the next decade as the United States and China bump up against each other globally. The risk of clashes in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have preoccupied military experts for years, but the balloon incident shows they could happen almost anywhere.Unlike the cloak and dagger spying of an earlier age, modern intelligence collection is multi-domain, persistent and global – at least when it comes to the great powers – and everyone is racing to build up their capabilities in new areas like cyber and space, even as they deploy human spies to go after each other’s most precious national secrets. China has been growing not only its military capabilities, but also its intelligence collection platforms. Meanwhile, the US continues to grow its own capabilities. Take just one data point: US reconnaissance flights along Chinese borders are now flying multiple times a day.This makes for a much more crowded military and intelligence operating environment, an increasingly dense jungle where the United States and China are likely to run into each other again and again in the future. When they do, there will be a serious risk of an accident or miscalculation that leads to inadvertent escalation – or even outright war.Inadvertent escalation happens when one nation’s mistake accidentally frightens another into an attack. A pilot could go off course, a government’s internal bureaucratic process might break down, satellites or aircraft could collide, sensors or other equipment could malfunction – to name just a few possibilities. It can also happen if our leaders misjudge how important some piece of military or intelligence equipment is to the other side, target it and mistakenly unleash all holy hell.This time, the damage seems to have been contained. This was in large part because the United States judged the threat to be low early on. But the story might have been different if US leaders had thought otherwise or if they had not been able to figure out whether or not the balloon was a threat in the first place. Containing crises in the future will be much harder if lives are lost or sensitive military and intelligence systems are damaged.During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union developed ways of reducing the risk of inadvertent escalation. Through experience, diplomacy and communication, Moscow and Washington came to understand each other’s boundaries – where, and where not, to step in the jungle. Rules of the road for certain military and intelligence activities emerged. Both sides may have broken the rules sometimes, but they were at least aware of them and this reduced the risk they would go to war by mistake. Washington and Moscow also set up military to military hotlines so that when accidents happened, they could communicate quickly and stop an escalating crisis from spiraling out of control.Of course China’s balloon was spying. States all spy on each other – and we all benefit | Jonathan SteeleRead moreSome analogous arrangements between China and the United States do exist today to prevent potential clashes at sea or in the air from inadvertent escalation. But these arrangements haven’t been working well – a problem recognized among many experts, including some in the White House. A significant part of the blame here falls on Chinese shoulders. Beijing often doesn’t follow the agreed rules and has been reluctant to use the military-military hotlines designed for emergency communication in a crisis. Last week, they refused to use the established hotline on the grounds that this was a civilian incident, even though the balloon was controlled by the Chinese military.But it doesn’t help the situation that the US Congress has been priming for a fight. Condemning China seems to be a rare bipartisan sport these days in Washington. Beijing has brought much of this hostility on itself through its bombastic nationalist turn under President Xi, but Washington’s pugnacious mood makes it all the more likely that US leaders will overreact when the next crisis hits – especially if they misunderstand what’s really going on in Beijing because diplomacy has broken down.Washington’s fighting mood also makes it harder to communicate US red lines and strategic boundaries ahead of time. But this is exactly what’s needed in order to establish the rules of the road that will help avoid future collisions. Getting China to engage constructively on these issues may require a more flexible US approach, including a willingness to talk not just about the security problems that worry the United States, but also the issues that most worry China.A serious diplomatic effort to build these ties could eventually go well beyond crisis management to encompass a broader transparency agenda, information exchanges, verification, safety, arms control and other measures. In the coming years, both sides are certain to seek advantages through intelligence collection, military posturing and other moves, but each side also has a vital interest in preventing an unintended spiral of escalation that could end in catastrophe. Hopefully, this episode can serve as a reminder of the work that lies ahead and how much we stand to lose if we fail to do it.
      Christopher S Chivvis is the director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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      in US Politics

      Object downed by US missile may have been amateur hobbyists’ $12 balloon

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      Object downed by US missile may have been amateur hobbyists’ $12 balloonIllinois hobby group says balloon went missing the day military missile costing $439,000 destroyed unidentified entity nearby01:19A group of amateur balloon enthusiasts in Illinois might have solved the mystery of one of the unknown flying objects shot down by the US military last week, a saga that had captivated the nation.The Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade says one of its hobby craft went “missing in action” over Alaska on 11 February, the same day a US F-22 jet downed an unidentified airborne entity not far away above Canada’s Yukon territory.In a blogpost, the group did not link the two events. But the trajectory of the pico balloon before its last recorded electronic check-in at 12.48am that day suggests a connection – as well as a fiery demise at the hands of a sidewinder missile on the 124th day of its journey, three days before it was set to complete its seventh circumnavigation.Biden says latest objects shot down over US not linked to China spy programRead moreIf that is what happened, it would mean the US military expended a missile costing $439,000 (£365,000) to fell an innocuous hobby balloon worth about $12 (£10).“For now we are calling pico balloon K9YO missing in action,” the group’s website says, noting that its last recorded altitude was 37,928ft (11,560m) while close to Hagemeister island, a 116 sq mile (300 sq km) landmass on the north shore of Bristol Bay.The object above Yukon was the second of three felled on Joe Biden’s orders on successive days last weekend after a Chinese spy balloon – a fourth separate object – was shot down over the Atlantic after it crossed the South Carolina coast on 4 February.US officials said during the week that the three objects shot down after the destruction of the Chinese spy balloon were probably benign and likely to have been commercial or linked to climate research.On Thursday, after several days of pressure from Democratic and Republican lawmakers, and amid an escalating diplomatic row with China, Biden broke his silence. The president said: “Nothing right now suggests they were related to China’s spy balloon program or that they were surveillance vehicles from any other country.”He said they were eliminated because authorities considered they posed a threat to aviation, although some observers say the downings were an overreaction amid political pressure over the discovery of the Chinese balloon.The Illinois brigade’s membership is a “small group of pico balloon enthusiasts” which has been operating since June 2021, according to its website.It says pico balloons have a 32in diameter and 100in circumference, and they have a cruising altitude between 32,000 and 50,000ft, a similar range to commercial aircraft.They contain trackers, solar panels and antenna packages lighter than a small bird, and the balloons are filled using less than a cubic foot of gas. According to Aviation Week, they are small hobby balloons starting at about $12 that allow enthusiasts to combine their interests in high-altitude ballooning and ham radio in an affordable way.Scientific Balloon Solutions founder Ron Meadows, whose Silicon Valley company makes purpose-built pico balloons for hobbyists, educators and scientists, told the publication that he attempted to alert authorities but was knocked back.“I tried contacting our military and the FBI, and just got the runaround, to try to enlighten them on what a lot of these things probably are,” he said. “They’re going to look not too intelligent to be shooting them down.”National security council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that efforts were being made to locate and identify the remains of the objects that were shot down, but the process was hampered by their remote locations and freezing weather.Kirby also said there was “no evidence” that extraterrestrial activity was at play in any of the downed objects, but the president had ordered the formation of an interagency team “to study the broader policy implications for detection, analysis and disposition of unidentified aerial objects that pose either safety or security risks”.TopicsUS militaryUS politicsChinaJoe BidenReuse this content More

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      Spy balloons, UFOs and a standoff with China: Politics Weekly America | podcast

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      This week, Jonathan Freedland and Julian Borger look into why a story about spy balloons launched by China quickly led to the White House having to deny the existence of aliens, and how communication on this could further deepen the wedge between the US and China

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      Archive: CSPAN, Sky News, CBS, CNBC Buy tickets for the Gary Younge live event here. Listen to our episode about the 2024 Senate race in California. Send your questions and feedback to podcasts@theguardian.com. Help support the Guardian by going to theguardian.com/supportpodcasts. More

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      Biden says three objects shot down over US ‘most likely’ private, and not more Chinese spy balloons – live

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      Joe Biden says the intelligence services haven’t determined the purpose of the three objects American planes shot down in recent days, but there’s no sign they were used for surveillance or connected to China.“Our intelligence community is still assessing all three incidences. They’re reporting to me daily and will continue the urgent efforts to do so, and I will communicate that to the Congress,” Biden said in an address from the White House.“We don’t yet know exactly what these three objects were, but nothing right now suggests they were related to China’s spy balloon program, or they were surveillance vehicles from other any other country. The intelligence community’s current assessment is that these three objects were most likely balloons tied to private companies, recreation or research institutions, studying weather or conducting other scientific research.”01:19In a White House address, Joe Biden tried to reassure Americans about what fighter jets shot down over North America in recent days, saying there were no signs the still-unidentified objects were connected to China or used for surveillance. Earlier in the day, a Georgia court released portions of a special grand jury’s report into Donald Trump’s election meddling campaign, which indicated jurors were worried about being lied to, but did not reveal if they think the former president or his allies committed crimes. The ball is now in Atlanta-area district attorney Fani Willis’s court, since she’s using the document to determine the next steps in her investigation of the former president’s attempt to overturn his 2020 election loss in Georgia.Here’s what else happened today:
      Senator John Fetterman checked himself into the hospital to receive treatment for depression. The Democrat’s election in Pennsylvania last November was crucial to the party gaining an outright majority in the Senate.
      Biden wants to speak with China’s president Xi Jinping after the spy balloon incident, though it’s not clear when the leaders plan to jump on the phone.
      Nikki Haley thinks Trump could pass one of the “mental competency tests” she wants to force politicians older than 75 to take.
      Democrats are beginning to worry that Biden is too old to run for re-election.
      A bill to prevent police from using search warrants to access data from menstrual tracking apps failed in Virginia’s legislature, apparently due to interference from Republican governor Glenn Youngkin.
      A theory has emerged from the amateur radio community about what exactly a US jet shot down over Canada’s Yukon territory.The unidentified object, one of three downed by American planes in recent days, may have been a “pico” balloon equipped with a GPS module and a solar panel that was launched from Illinois last October, and in the middle of circumnavigating the earth for the seventh time, according to this report on hobbyist website RTL-SDR.As the article makes clear, the details of the K9YO-15 amateur radio balloon and US and Canadian authorities’ description of the object encountered on 11 February sure seem to line up:.css-cumn2r{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}The launch blog post indicates that the K9YO-15 balloon was flying a silver mylar 32” sphere SAG balloon which appears to be this one from balloons.online. Unlike latex or rubber weather balloons which inflate and stretch as they rise into lower atmospheric pressures, these mylar balloons can’t stretch, so their fully inflated ground size will be the same as their size at high altitudes, meaning the pico balloon won’t get much bigger than 32”. The payload was a GPS module, Arduino, SI5351 used as a WSPR and APRS transmitter and a solar panel, all together weighing 16.4 grams. A pentagon memo notes that the object shot down over Canada was a “small metallic balloon with a tethered payload” which fits the description of the pico balloon exactly.
      The K9YO-15 balloon ceased all WSPR telemetry transmissions while flying just below Alaska since Feb 11 00:18 UTC (just before sunset in Alaska when the solar panels would stop working).
      By using NOAA wind models and the last known location by Alaska, K9YO-15 was projected to have been over Yukon when the US Air Force shot down the unknown balloon object at Feb 11 20:41 UTC (3:41 PM EST / 1:41 PM Yukon time according to Canadian Defense Minister Anand). Reports put the altitude of the shot down object at approximately 40,000ft (~12000 meters), which matches the projected ~11500 meters of K9YO-15. Based on the previous days transmission times, it is suspected that if it were operational, the balloon would have begun transmitting again sometime later in the Yukon afternoon when the sun was stronger, but no transmissions have been seen.A town in Ohio is demanding answers after a train carrying toxic chemicals derailed in their community, but the Guardian’s Lauren Aratani and Michael Sainato report that rail executives refused to provide any in a meeting last night:Nearly two weeks after a train carrying toxic chemicals derailed in East Palestine, Ohio, community members packed a local high school auditorium on Wednesday night wanting answers to their health and safety concerns.Norfolk Southern Corporation, the Atlanta-based operator of the derailed train, ultimately skipped the meeting, which was the first community meeting in the town of 5,000 people since the incident.“We know that many are rightfully angry and frustrated right now. Unfortunately, after consulting with community leaders, we have become increasingly concerned about the growing physical threats to our employees and members of the community around this event stemming from increasing likelihood of the participation of outside parties,” the company said in a statement. “With that in mind, Norfolk Southern will not be in attendance this evening.”Ohio residents demand answers two weeks after toxic chemical train derailmentRead more01:23The New York Times has obtained an email from John Fetterman’s wife to the Democratic senator’s supporters:Email from @giselefetterman to supporters: “our family is in for some difficult days ahead, and we ask for your compassion on the path to recovery.””I’m sad, and worried, as any wife and mother would be.”— Annie Karni (@anniekarni) February 16, 2023
      John Fetterman, the newly elected Democratic senator whose victory in Pennsylvania gave Joe Biden’s allies an outright majority in the chamber after last November’s midterms, has checked himself into the hospital for clinical depression, his office announced.“Last night, Senator John Fetterman checked himself into Walter Reed National Military Medical Center to receive treatment for clinical depression. While John has experienced depression off and on throughout his life, it only became severe in recent weeks,” Fetterman’s chief of staff Adam Jentleson said in a statement.“On Monday, John was evaluated by Dr. Brian P. Monahan, the Attending Physician of the United States Congress. Yesterday, Dr. Monahan recommended inpatient care at Walter Reed. John agreed, and he is receiving treatment on a voluntary basis. After examining John, the doctors at Walter Reed told us that John is getting the care he needs, and will soon be back to himself.”The three recent shootdowns are among the more mysterious national security happenings in recent time, particularly because days have passed since they occurred, and Washington has yet to come out with an explanation of what American jets encountered in the skies.But Joe Biden seems to be preparing Americans for the possibility that the unidentified objects were simply innocuous vessels in the wrong place at the wrong time. While he didn’t say what was shot down in his White House speech today, he did note that he asked American intelligence agencies to look into reports of UFOs.“When I came into office, I instructed our intelligence community to take a broad look at the phenomenon of unidentified aerial objects,” Biden said. “We know that a range of entities including countries, companies and research organizations operate objects at altitudes for purposes that are not nefarious, including legitimate scientific research.”He also noted that “our military and the Canadian military are seeking to recover the debris so we can learn more about these three objects.” There’s no indication there that they’ve managed to get their hands on them yet, even though it’s been days since they were downed.The president announced he would look to speak with China’s leader Xi Jinping in the wake of the downing of a spy balloon belonging to Beijing off American’s eastern coast.“The other thing I want to point out is that we are going to keep our allies and the Congress contemporaneously informed of all we know and all we learn, and I expect to be speaking with President Xi, and I hope we have we are going to get to the bottom, as I make no apologies for taking down that balloon,” Biden said.He also noted that, “Our (experts) have lifted components of the Chinese balloon’s payload off the ocean floor, we’re analyzing them as I speak, and what we learn will strengthen our capabilities.”Biden says the government is coming up with practices to better detect and deal with unknown aerial objects in the wake of the recent shootdowns over North America.“I’ve directed my team to come back to me with sharper rules for how we will deal with these unidentified objects moving forward, distinguishing between those that are likely to pose safety and security risks that necessitate action and those that do not,” Biden said.“But make no mistake: if any object presents a threat to the safety, security of the American people, I will take it down. I’ll be sharing with Congress these classified policy parameters when they’re completed, and they’ll remain classified so we don’t give our roadmap to our enemies to try to evade our defenses.”He also addressed why the United States found itself suddenly responding to three unidentified objects in its airspace just days after shooting down a confirmed Chinese spy balloon.“We don’t have any evidence that there has been a sudden increase in the number of objects in the sky. We’re now just seeing more of them, partially because the steps we’ve taken to increase our radars, to narrow our radars, and we have to keep adapting our approach to dealing with these challenges.”Joe Biden says the intelligence services haven’t determined the purpose of the three objects American planes shot down in recent days, but there’s no sign they were used for surveillance or connected to China.“Our intelligence community is still assessing all three incidences. They’re reporting to me daily and will continue the urgent efforts to do so, and I will communicate that to the Congress,” Biden said in an address from the White House.“We don’t yet know exactly what these three objects were, but nothing right now suggests they were related to China’s spy balloon program, or they were surveillance vehicles from other any other country. The intelligence community’s current assessment is that these three objects were most likely balloons tied to private companies, recreation or research institutions, studying weather or conducting other scientific research.”01:19Joe Biden has started his address about the UFOs shot down over North America in recent weeks, as well as the Chinese spy balloon.Follow along here for the latest. More

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      Competitor or adversary? The west struggles to define its relationship with Beijing

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      Competitor or adversary? The west struggles to define its relationship with BeijingChina, the US’s most vital trade partner and its main long-term competitor, presents the country with a sticky ‘pacing challenge’ If you want to solve a problem, it helps to be able to define it, but when it comes to a problem like China, western leaders have been struggling to find the right words.Liz Truss sought to designate China as a “threat” to Britain, but did not stay prime minister long enough for that to become established policy. Her successor, Rishi Sunak, has opted for the less combative “systemic challenge” but he is under pressure from backbench MPs to follow Truss’s path and call Beijing a “strategic threat”.Sunak has made clear he does not want the UK to be out of step with its allies on the issue, most importantly the US. In Washington, meanwhile, China designation is a delicate and evolving art.China ‘spy balloon’ wakes up world to new era of war at edge of spaceRead moreThe delicacy was apparent when a Chinese balloon sailed over the continental US earlier this month. The US declared the high-altitude airship and its payload to be designed for spying and shot it down once it was safely over the Atlantic. The secretary of state, Antony Blinken, cancelled a long-planned trip to Beijing to address bilateral tensions, but at the same time stressed that channels of communication would be kept open and that the US remained keen on a meeting when conditions allowed. Blinken may meet his counterpart, Wang Yi, as soon as this week, at the Munich security conference.The theme of US-China policy towards the end of the Trump administration was an all-encompassing decoupling, in which China was presented in mostly adversarial terms. Joe Biden has preferred to talk about “stiff competition”. His administration’s national defence strategy paper deemed Russia to be an “acute threat” while China was portrayed as the US’s only long-term “competitor”. In recent weeks, the official catchphrase for Beijing has been the slightly nebulous “pacing challenge”, suggesting the US is the world’s constant frontrunner with China ever closer to its shoulder.The problem with categorising China is that there are multiple aspects to its global role as it expands its presence on the world stage. For that reason, Democratic senator Chris Murphy has warned against digging up old cold war rhetoric.“You can’t use the terminology that we used for our conflict with the Soviet Union for our conflict with China,” Murphy told Foreign Policy. “It is apples and oranges. We had virtually no trade relationship with the Soviet Union. Our most vital trade relationship is with China. So I do worry about a bunch of Cold Warriors and Cold War enthusiasts thinking that you can run a competition with China like you ran a competition with the Soviet Union. It’s not the same thing.”With this in mind, Blinken has adopted a Swiss army penknife multi-tooled approach that is “competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be and adversarial when it must be.”Washington is acutely aware that it has been complacent in its competition with China for global clout, having assumed that better US technology and its democratic model would win the day, only to find that African countries and other parts of the global south were sitting on their hands when the US called for support in the UN general assembly. Last year an old Pacific ally, Solomon Islands, signed a security pact with Beijing, denying entry to a US Coast Guard cutter not long after.The Biden administration now plans to beef up its diplomatic presence in the Pacific, reopening some shuttered missions. It has set up a “China house” in the state department to coordinate analysis and help counter China’s message around the world. On Wednesday, the deputy secretary of state, Wendy Sherman, summed up the new US approach as Washington takes on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the contest for hearts and minds in emerging economies.“It is not to say that the PRC can’t invest or that you should toss them out,” Sherman said at the Brookings Institution. Instead, she said the message will be: “Have your eyes wide open”.“Understand what you’re getting, understand what rules apply, what the norms are. Give us a chance, see what we have to offer. Let us compete and help you develop as a country in the ways that you choose,” Sherman said.As for collaboration with China, she said there was little choice other than to work with Beijing to address the climate emergency.“There is no doubt that we cannot meet the climate challenge without engagement with the PRC,” Sherman said. “It’s just not possible because we are both such large emitters and historic emitters.”At the same time, there are plenty of fields in which the US and China are adversaries. The balloon affair has just added another layer to a constant, escalating intelligence struggle between the two powers, in which Beijing has scored some remarkable successes in recent years, stealing designs for the F-35 fighter jet for example. Chinese hackers also stole the personal details of 22 million federal workers – current, former and prospective.Fears of China’s technological capabilities led Biden to introduce draconian export restrictions on semiconductors in October of last year, in an effort to strangle China’s microchip sector. It came close to an economic declaration of war, but Republicans in Congress are still trying to depict him as “soft on China”, calling on him to ban the TikTok app as a threat to national security. Some red states are considering bans on Chinese nationals buying land.It is in the military arena of course where the stakes are the highest and the risks of a competitive relationship becoming adversarial are greatest. Last week, the Pentagon informed Congress that China now had more missile silos than the US. It was an eye-catching claim, though most of the silos are empty and the US retains a substantial superiority in submarine and airborne launchers. China is estimated by the Federation of American Scientists to have 350 nuclear warheads. Even if that number tripled, as the Pentagon predicts it will, it will still be less than a fifth of the US stockpile.China’s long-term threat will depend ultimately on whether it is developing its military clout simply to deter or to attack, across the Taiwan Strait in particular. At the end of January, the head of US Air Mobility Command, Gen Mike Minihan, told other officers that his “gut” told him the US and China would be at war by 2025. It was an estimate quickly disowned by the rest of the Pentagon leadership, who shied away from such expressions of inevitability.US officials say that Xi Jinping is watching Russia’s military debacle in Ukraine with concern and maybe recalibrating his options. Opinions differ within the administration on how seriously Xi takes his pledge to reunite China, another reason it has wavered over the right terminology.There is agreement for now however that repeatedly deeming China to be a threat risks making matters worse, shaping policy in such a way that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.TopicsChinaUS foreign policyBiden administrationUS politicsAsia PacificXi JinpingfeaturesReuse this content More