Chinese Nationalist Party (Taiwan)

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      Taiwan’s Opposition Picks Hou Yu-ih, a Moderate, for Presidential Race

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      The Kuomintang nominated Hou Yu-ih, a popular mayor who has said little about geopolitical issues, as the party tries to appeal to voters wary of Beijing.Once a dominant political force, Taiwan’s main opposition party lost the last two presidential elections in large part because it has promoted closer ties with China. Now, faced with voters who have been alarmed by Beijing’s aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its hopes on a new type of candidate: a popular local leader with a blank slate on the thorny question of China.The Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, on Wednesday nominated as its presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, a 66-year-old, two-term mayor of New Taipei City and former police chief who has tried to strike a middle ground within the Kuomintang on the island’s relations with China. Mr. Hou launched his bid with a rallying call.“We must unite for victory, especially at this stage when our country is facing fierce and dangerous international circumstances,” Mr. Hou said following the announcement of his nomination. His candidacy sets the stage for a tight race next January that could chart a new course for Taiwan in the big-power standoff between China and the United States and reshape tensions around the Taiwan Strait, one of the world’s most dangerous flash points. Under the seven-year leadership of President Tsai Ing-wen of the governing Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan has come under intensifying military and diplomatic pressure from China and pushed back by bolstering ties with the United States.Within the Kuomintang, Mr. Hou is regarded as a capable administrator with broad appeal, who “would generate the least internal party controversy, align with the general expectations of society and have the highest likelihood of winning in the presidential election,” said Huang Kwei-Bo, a professor of international relations at the National Chengchi University and a former deputy secretary-general of the Nationalist Party.Terry Gou, the founder of the iPhone and electronics manufacturer Foxconn. He was a contender to be Taiwan’s next president, but his lack of political experience lost him the Kuomintang’s nomination.Ann Wang/ReutersMr. Hou’s nomination pits him against Lai Ching-te, the governing party candidate and current vice president. A win for Mr. Lai would likely mean a continuation of China’s policies to freeze out Taiwan from any high-level engagement, as well as Taiwan’s continued closeness with the United States. A victory for Mr. Hou and the Kuomintang could reopen communication channels with China and tamp down military tensions, potentially reducing the pressure on Taiwan to strengthen ties with Washington.Mr. Hou faced tough competition from Terry Gou, the founder of the iPhone and electronics manufacturer Foxconn, who failed despite holding rallies around the island to make his case for nomination. Analysts said Mr. Gou’s lack of experience in politics and his business interests in China made him an unviable candidate for the Kuomintang.The Kuomintang in recent years has struggled to balance its China-friendly leanings with the Taiwan population’s souring sentiment toward Beijing. That juggling act has been complicated by Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong in 2019 and its ramped-up military drills around Taiwan. The governing D.P.P. has positioned itself as a defender of Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy, and pointed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an example of the urgent threat of authoritarian expansionism.But the Kuomintang scored big last year, prevailing in almost two-thirds of local mayoral elections contested, races in which geopolitics matter less than bread-and-butter issues. Mr. Hou handily won his re-election as mayor and has since topped multiple polls within the party for the candidacy.The chairman of the Kuomintang, Eric Chu, second from left, followed by Mr. Hou in the center, and Wayne Chiang, a Taipei mayoral candidate, at an election rally last year.Ann Wang/ReutersUnlike most politicians in Taiwan, Mr. Hou began his career as a police officer, in the 1980s. He rose through the ranks and was a key investigator into the 2004 assassination attempt against President Chen Shui-bian. In 2006, Mr. Chen’s administration promoted Mr. Hou to the position of chief of the island’s police force, the youngest officer ever to serve in the role.In his turn to politics in 2010, he joined hands with Eric Chu, who was then the mayor of New Taipei City. Mr. Hou served as the deputy mayor under Mr. Chu and succeeded Mr. Chu as mayor in 2018. Mr. Chu is now the chairman of the Kuomintang.Supporters of Mr. Hou in New Taipei City say that he takes real actions to improve the lives of residents. Jax Chen, a 28-year-old nonprofit worker, referred to Mr. Hou’s effort to transform a giant, decades-old garbage dump into green park space as one example.“In Taiwan’s political scene, it seems like everyone is just talking too much,” he said. “But if there is a person who is pragmatic with capabilities to enforce policies, I believe it would be great and everyone would be willing to accept the person.”Mr. Hou, right, in 2004, when he was the commissioner of the Criminal Investigation Bureau and a key investigator of the assassination attempt against President Chen Shui-bian.Saeed Khan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesLess well established are Mr. Hou’s views on major geopolitical questions such as how Taiwan should navigate its relationships with China and the United States. China claims Taiwan as its territory, to be absorbed with force if necessary, and accuses the D.P.P. of seeking formal independence. The Kuomintang has asserted that it is the party with the best chance of engaging China and avoiding war.In an apparent effort to thread the needle, Mr. Hou has said he both opposes Taiwan independence and the “one country, two systems” formulation proposed by China to absorb Taiwan. The position eschews two extremes but leaves open a huge number of possible viewpoints on the existential issue of cross-strait relations.The lack of clarity about his stance on China has already been criticized by some observers, a potential disadvantage for him on top of his lack of experience in foreign affairs, said Paul Chao-hsiang Chu, a politics professor at National Taiwan Normal University who studies party politics and voters’ behavior.At the same time, Mr. Hou’s reticence could make him more appealing to centrist voters, said Liao Da-chi, an emeritus professor of political science at the National Sun Yat-Sen University. That is in contrast to Han Kuo-yu, the Kuomintang’s presidential candidate in 2020, who made rousing speeches and pledged to restore closer relations with China but lost in a landslide to President Tsai.Despite vowing to improve relations with China, the Kuomintang’s 2020 presidential candidate, Han Kuo-yu, center, lost to President Tsai Ing-wen.Ritchie B Tongo/EPA, via ShutterstockOverall, Mr. Hou has had very few interactions with the United States, said Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan expert and managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Mr. Hou has said that he has met with officials at the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto embassy for the United States, at least eight times. But American congressional delegations to Taiwan since its reopening have not been able to meet with him.As Beijing stokes tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the Kuomintang’s contact with China has sometimes put it in an awkward position.Earlier this year, just as President Tsai traveled to the United States, Ma Ying-jeou, a former president of Taiwan and an influential leader in the Kuomintang, headed for China on an unofficial trip. Mr. Ma was criticized in Taiwan for appearing to kowtow to China on an inappropriately timed visit. (In retaliation for Ms. Tsai’s visit to the United States, China sent record numbers of military aircraft, as well as naval ships and an aircraft carrier, near Taiwan to conduct military drills.)“To win the election, it is imperative for the Kuomintang to persuade the people that voting for them is the safer and more promising choice in achieving peace,” Dr. Chu said. “At the same time, how it would convince the Taiwanese people they will not betray Taiwan or allow China to completely swallow up Taiwan’s sovereignty presents a significant challenge for Kuomintang.”A Chinese naval vessel near Dongju Island, Taiwan, in April.Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times More

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      Politics Complicates Chinese Reaction to U.S. Visit by Taiwan’s President

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      For Beijing, showing displeasure too openly carries risks, particularly of harming the chances for its preferred party in Taiwan’s coming presidential election.China fired off a volley of condemnations on Thursday after Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, met the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, but it held off from the kind of military escalation that threatened a crisis last summer, when Mr. McCarthy’s predecessor visited Taiwan.China’s angry reaction to the meeting between Ms. Tsai and Mr. McCarthy in California followed weeks of warnings from Beijing, which treats Taiwan as an illegitimate breakaway region whose leaders should be shunned abroad. Despite the combative words, any retaliation by Beijing in coming days may be tempered by the difficult calculations facing China’s leader, Xi Jinping, including over Taiwan’s coming presidential race.Soon after the meeting at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, China’s ministry of defense, foreign ministry and other offices in Beijing issued warnings to Taiwan and the United States.“Do not go down this dark path of ‘riding on the back of the U.S. to seek independence,” said the Chinese Communist Party’s office for Taiwan policy. “Any bid for ‘independence’ will be smashed to pieces by the power of sons and daughters of China opposed to ‘independence’ and advancing unification.”So far though, Beijing’s pugnacious language has not been matched by a big military response like the one last year. After the previous speaker, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan in August in a show of solidarity, China’s People’s Liberation Army held days of miliary exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan.Early Thursday, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense detected one Chinese military plane that entered the “air defense identification zone” off Taiwan — an informal area where aircraft are supposed to declare their presence — and three Chinese navy vessels in seas off the island. Last year, China announced its blockade exercise on the same day that Ms. Pelosi arrived in Taipei.Taiwan military vessels docked at a Navy base in Suao, Taiwan, on Thursday.Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times“China is not doing the kind of saber rattling that they were doing before the Pelosi visit. They haven’t set the stage in the same way,” said Patrick M. Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, who attended a closed-door speech Ms. Tsai gave in New York last week. “They’re going to have their hands close around the throat of Taiwan, but we’ll have to see how they squeeze.”Mr. Xi, anointed last month to a third term as president, wants to deter Taiwan from high-level contacts abroad. Yet he is also trying to improve China’s relations with Western governments, restore economic growth and aid the chances of his favored party in Taiwan’s presidential election in January. An extended military crisis over Taiwan could hurt all three goals, especially the last one.“On the one hand, there’s a desire to signal to Taiwan, to the U.S. and also to Taiwan voters, that efforts to raise Taiwan’s international profile are unacceptable from China’s standpoint,” said Scott L. Kastner, a professor of politics at the University of Maryland. But, he added, “on balance the incentives are for the People’s Republic of China to act with more restraint than usual in the run-up to the election.”China’s ties with Europe, Australia and other Western governments have been damaged by disputes over Covid, Chinese political influence abroad, and Mr. Xi’s ties to Russia. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, is in China this week, and he is among the European leaders who Mr. Xi hopes can be coaxed away from Washington’s hard line on China.President Emmanuel Macron of France is welcomed by Chinese Premier Minister Li Qiang at the Great Hall of the People on Thursday in Beijing.Pool photo by Thibault CamusA menacing display by the People’s Liberation Army could also hurt the presidential hopes of Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Nationalists, which favors stronger ties with China. Ms. Tsai must step down next year, and a crisis in the Taiwan Strait could help galvanize support for her Democratic Progressive Party and undercut the Nationalists’ case for more cooperation with Beijing.“Beijing will want to visibly register its displeasure, lest its leaders be accused at home of tolerating Taiwan’s efforts to move further away from China,” said Ryan Hass, a former adviser on China policy to President Obama and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “At the same time, Beijing also will want to preserve some headroom for further escalation should future circumstances require.”In Beijing and Taipei, memories linger of 1995, when Lee Teng-hui, then president of Taiwan, gave a speech celebrating Taiwan’s democratic transformation while visiting the United States. China condemned Mr. Lee’s visit and responded with military exercises that resumed in 1996. President Lee soundly won another term that year, despite Beijing’s missiles.President Lee Teng-hui of Taiwan delivering a lecture at his alma mater, Cornell University, in 1995. Bob Strong/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIn 2020, Ms. Tsai rebounded from low approval ratings to win a second term after a Beijing-backed crackdown on protests in Hong Kong repulsed voters in Taiwan.“Beijing likely has learned from past experience that whenever it uses tough fire-and-fury rhetoric around Taiwan’s presidential election, usually that invites voter backlash,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist with the Taiwan Studies Program of the Australian National University in Canberra.Still, if Taiwanese voters felt that Ms. Tsai was goading Beijing, that could hurt her standing and her party’s image. Her trip to the United States reflected her careful calculus: She sought to deepen Taiwan’s ties with Washington, while avoiding giving China an excuse for a new round of threatening military exercises.In California, Ms. Tsai thanked the Republican and Democrat lawmakers who attended. “Their presence and unwavering support reassure the people of Taiwan that we are not isolated,” she said, standing next to Mr. McCarthy.Ms. Tsai and Mr. McCarthy at a news conference at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on Wednesday.Philip Cheung for The New York TimesMany in Taiwan, especially supporters of Ms. Tsai’s government, believe that such meetings are important, despite Beijing’s warnings.“Taiwan is already very alone, and it’s very dangerous if we don’t show we have friends, especially the United States,” said Kao Teng-sheng, a businessman in Chiayi, a city in southern Taiwan, who previously ran a factory in southern China. “If she did not meet McCarthy, that would also be dangerous for Taiwan. It would look like we are panicking.”Taiwan’s presidential race is likely to come down to a contest between the Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te, currently the vice president, and a Nationalist contender, possibly Hou You-yi, the popular mayor of New Taipei City. Beijing would prefer a Nationalist leader in Taipei, and over recent days has been hosting, and feting, Ma Ying-jeou, the previous Nationalist president.“In military threats, China’s attitude won’t soften, but it will also invite those like Ma Ying-jeou to China,” said I-Chung Lai, a former director of the China affairs section of the Democratic Progressive Party and now a senior adviser to the Taiwan Thinktank in Tapei.Beijing’s dismal relations with Washington may also factor into Mr. Xi’s calculations. At a summit in November, he and President Biden tried to rein in tensions over technology bans, military rivalry, human rights, and Chinese support for Russia.U.S. President Biden meeting with President Xi Jinping of China in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022.Doug Mills/The New York TimesThose efforts stalled in February after the Biden administration revealed that a Chinese surveillance balloon was floating over the United States, and Mr. Xi affirmed his support for Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian president, during a summit in Moscow, despite the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A new crisis over Taiwan could push the strains between Beijing and Washington to a dangerous limit.Some Taiwanese analysts have said that China may announce some military exercises around Taiwan after Mr. Ma, the visiting former president, returns to Taipei on Friday.Even with Taiwan’s looming election, “if the Chinese Communist Party faces what it believes is a violation of its very core fundamental positions or interests, then it seems it won’t go soft on Taiwan,” said Huang Kwei-Bo, a professor of international relations at the National Chengchi University in Taipei who is a former deputy secretary-general of the Nationalist Party. More

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      Taiwan’s Ex-President, Ma Ying-yeou, Heads to China in a Historic Visit

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      Though his visit is not official, it is nonetheless significant and may offer clues to political calculations on both sides of the increasingly tense Taiwan Strait.TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan’s former president, Ma Ying-jeou, landed in China on Monday in the first visit to the country by any sitting or former Taiwanese leader since China’s civil war ended with the Nationalist government retreating to the island from the mainland in 1949.Though the 12-day visit by Mr. Ma, who was president from 2008 to 2016, is unofficial, it is likely to be watched closely at home and abroad for clues on how Beijing might seek to influence Taiwan, its democratic neighbor, ahead of a presidential election in January. The timing of Mr. Ma’s trip is also noteworthy because he departed just days before Taiwan’s current leader, President Tsai Ing-wen, visits the United States, a trip that has been met with objections by China, which claims Taiwan as its territory.The contrasting destinations highlight what each politician’s party sees as its advantage. Ms. Tsai, of the Democratic Progressive Party, has strengthened U.S.-Taiwan ties during her eight years in office, while the Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, to which Mr. Ma belongs, bills itself as better able to deal with Beijing.President Tsai Ing-wen, right, and Mr. Ma, in 2016 when she was sworn in. Mr. Ma’s efforts to bring Taiwan closer to China had brought citizens out into the streets in protest.Pool photo by Taipei Photojournalists AssociationPresident Tsai will leave Taiwan on Wednesday for a trip to Central America, with what officials have described as transit stops in the United States planned in New York and Los Angeles. Beijing has said it “strongly opposed” Ms. Tsai’s planned U.S. trip and any form of contact between the United States and Taiwan’s authorities. On Saturday, in a blow to Taipei’s international standing shortly before Ms. Tsai’s overseas trip, Honduras announced it was severing diplomatic ties with Taipei in favor of Beijing.In China, news of Mr. Ma’s pending arrival drew praise from the Taiwan Affairs Office. When he landed in Shanghai on Monday, he was welcomed at the airport by officials from that office and the city government. The former president is leading a delegation of Taiwanese students to promote cross-strait educational exchanges, which took off during his presidency, but dwindled in recent years, both because of the pandemic and because of Beijing’s disapproval of Ms. Tsai. Mr. Ma, who declined to comment for this article, will also visit the graves of his ancestors in Hunan Province.“Ma underlining his familial roots in China at the precise moment when Tsai is highlighting U.S.-Taiwan ties will provide very contrasting visuals, and influence Taiwanese voters’ perception of where Taiwan’s two main political parties stand on U.S.-China relations,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Program. “Having served as Taiwan’s president for eight years, his every move will carry political significance, whether he likes it or not.”Beijing’s cultivation of Mr. Ma and the Kuomintang, once the mortal enemy of Mao Zedong’s Communists, is a concession that China must make to Taiwan’s democracy, Mr. Sung said.“Beijing has learned from past experience that whenever it uses fire-and-fury rhetoric against Taiwan, that usually backfires, and helps to elect the very Taiwanese nationalist politicians who are unfavorable to Beijing,” Mr. Sung said. “So, instead, recently Beijing has been seeking to extend an olive branch towards Taiwan, and where possible to lend a hand to what it sees as the relatively Beijing-friendlier voices in Taiwan.”Mr. Ma’s trip to China is the most recent high-profile interaction between China and Kuomintang officials.In February, the newly elected mayor of Taipei, Chiang Wan-an, welcomed a delegation from the Shanghai branch of the Taiwan Affairs Office. Andrew Hsia, a Kuomintang vice chairman, went to China and met with Wang Huning and Song Tao, two key figures in Beijing’s Taiwan strategy.The Kuomintang and its leader, Chiang Kai-shek, were driven off the mainland and to Taiwan in 1949 by the Communists in the war for control of China. In Taiwan, the Kuomintang imposed authoritarian rule and a Chinese identity on the island until 1987, when the government ended 38 years of martial law, opening the way for democracy and the re-emergence of Taiwanese identity.The United States ambassador to China, Patrick J. Hurley, with China’s Nationalist president, Chiang Kai-shek, and his Communist rival Mao Zedong, in 1945, in a photo provided by Taiwan’s Central News Agency.Central News Agency, via Associated PressSince then, relations between the Kuomintang in Taiwan and the Communists in China have warmed, with Mr. Ma at the forefront of the push for closer cross-strait ties.In 2014, his efforts to bring Taiwan closer to China brought citizens out into the streets in protest, and a subsequent election swept Ms. Tsai and her D.P.P. into power in the executive and legislative branches. In 2015, Mr. Ma faced criticism at home for his decision to meet with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Singapore in the first-ever encounter between leaders of the two sides.Roughly half of Taiwan’s voters are unaffiliated with either the Kuomintang or the D.P.P., forcing both parties toward the center of the political spectrum to win votes. For Mr. Ma and the Kuomintang, this means appearing to be in favor of Taiwan’s continued sovereignty, while also having good relations with a Communist Party that claims Taiwan and has not ruled out taking it by force.“I see Ma’s visit as a form of performative politics for Kuomintang voters and potential voters,” said James Lin, a historian of Taiwan at the University of Washington. “This reflects a core Kuomintang foreign policy — they are able to deal with Beijing pragmatically and maintain friendly relations to secure peace for Taiwan.”Amy Chang Chien More