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    Nikki Haley Looks to New Hampshire Primary With a Focus on Independents

    The former South Carolina governor has banked her campaign on the state, buoyed by an influx of cash and an advertising blitz as she looks to rebound from Iowa.Former President Donald J. Trump’s resounding victory in Iowa significantly raises the stakes of next week’s New Hampshire primary for Nikki Haley and the increasingly desperate contingent of Republicans who want to move on from Mr. Trump.While Iowa was largely a foregone conclusion at the top, with a spirited battle only for second place, a small but ever narrowing path still exists for Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, to beat Mr. Trump in New Hampshire. It relies heavily on tens of thousands of independent voters expected to participate in the Republican primary.Ms. Haley, who got a late start in Iowa, has from the beginning banked her campaign on a strong showing in New Hampshire, and has recently been buoyed by an influx of cash from the super PAC supporting her. The demographic makeup of the state is also much more favorable to her than the more rural and conservative Iowa. She has invested significant money and time here — holding 80 events in the state — and has the support of some its top Republicans, including the popular governor, Chris Sununu.“She’s on the ground, she’s in the diner, she’s doing the town halls,” Mr. Sununu said. “She’s answering anybody’s questions. Trump’s not doing that. You’re lucky to get him to fly in once a week to do a rally and then get the heck out of there.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Is Trump Steaming Toward a Candidacy-Sinking Iceberg? Three Writers Look at Iowa and Beyond.

    Frank Bruni, a contributing Opinion writer, hosted a written online conversation with Mike Murphy, a co-director of the Center for the Political Future at the University of Southern California, a former Republican strategist for John McCain and others and a host of the podcast “Hacks on Tap” and Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster and a moderator of the Times Opinion focus group series, to discuss their expectations for the Iowa caucus. They also banter about the road ahead for the G.O.P. primary and what the general election might look like after the primary.Frank Bruni: Mike, Kristen, happy Iowa caucuses. I’m sitting here at my kitchen table in a parka and earmuffs, in honor of the freezing temperatures that caucusgoers are expected to brave. And I thank you for joining me.Have any of the developments of recent days (Donald Trump’s appearance in two different courtrooms, Chris Christie’s exit from the race, the Nikki Haley-Ron DeSantis debate, some other twist) potentially altered the trajectory of the race or set up caucus results that might surprise us?Kristen Soltis Anderson: I doubt that the events of the last few days have done much. This is still Trump’s caucus to lose.Bruni: But will he win as big as some people believe? And if he does stage a blowout, is there only one, or more than one, ticket out of Iowa?Soltis Anderson: I wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump get a majority of votes. And I think there’s only one ticket out of Iowa. DeSantis would need to dominate handily, winning or coming near Trump’s share, to have a prayer of gaining the momentum he’d need to thrive in New Hampshire or South Carolina. Without that, DeSantis has nowhere to go besides looking ahead to 2028.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Republican Presidential Primary: 7 Numbers That Tell the Story

    There’s $46,499,124.63. There’s 3 percent. Here are five other figures that shed light on the dynamics at play before Monday’s caucuses.The only numbers that will truly matter in the Iowa caucuses on Monday will be the number of votes tallied for Donald J. Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy.But there are a number of, well, numbers that help explain the Republican nominating contest. In most polls, Mr. Trump holds a solid lead, while Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis are battling it out far behind in a fight for second place.Here are seven numbers that show how we got here — and what comes next.28 percentage pointsMr. Trump’s lead in the Iowa Poll The bar has been set.In the Iowa Poll released on Saturday evening by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom, Mr. Trump was winning 48 percent of likely caucusgoers. It’s a dominant showing that’s more than the total support measured for Ms. Haley (20 percent) and Mr. DeSantis (16 percent) combined.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Christie’s Exit Should Give Haley a Chance in New Hampshire. Will It Be Enough?

    A group of moderate voters is now available, but it may not put her over the top against Trump.Chris Christie and Nikki Haley on a debate stage last month.Gerald Herbert/Associated PressEight years ago, Chris Christie gave Donald J. Trump the biggest political assist of the 2016 campaign.He eviscerated a surging Marco Rubio on the debate stage just days before the New Hampshire primary. In doing so, he ensured that the Republican mainstream would be divided and allowed Mr. Trump to regain his footing with a win after a loss in Iowa.Mr. Trump won’t be getting the same favor again.On Wednesday, Mr. Christie withdrew from the race. Whatever his intent, by bowing out he has effectively done what he didn’t do eight years ago: step out of the way of a mainstream conservative with moderate appeal, in this case Nikki Haley, who is surging heading into the New Hampshire primary.In the most recent polls, she reached about 30 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. It was a tally that put her within striking distance of Mr. Trump and even made a victory imaginable. But she still trailed by about 12 percentage points, and her path to victory remained quite narrow.With Mr. Christie out of the race, those 12 points don’t look so hard anymore. Mr. Christie has held around 10 percent of the vote in New Hampshire for months, and Ms. Haley and Mr. Trump would essentially be tied in New Hampshire if her support were hypothetically combined with Mr. Christie’s.According to FiveThirtyEight on Wednesday night, Ms. Haley and Mr. Christie’s support added up to 41.5 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, to 42.4 percent for Mr. Trump.Of course, not every one of Mr. Christie’s voters will back Ms. Haley. But in this particular case, there’s good reason to think the preponderance of his voters really will coalesce behind her.Mr. Christie is the only vocal anti-Trump candidate and, not surprisingly, his supporters are the likeliest to be anti-Trump. In a CNN/UNH poll this week, 65 percent of Mr. Christie’s supporters said Ms. Haley was their second choice. In a CBS/YouGov poll last month, 75 percent of Mr. Christie’s supporters in New Hampshire said they would consider Ms. Haley. Just 9 percent said they would consider Mr. Trump.With these numbers, Ms. Haley’s path to victory isn’t like hitting an inside straight — it is fairly straightforward. No, the Christie vote, alone, will probably not be enough. But she has been steadily gaining in the polls and, historically, there’s a lot of precedent for surging candidates to keep gaining — especially over a contest’s final days. With Mr. Trump at just 42 percent of the vote, there’s no reason to think her path is closed off.Of course, a Haley win in New Hampshire would not mean that Mr. Trump’s path to the nomination was in jeopardy. Not even Mr. Christie seems optimistic about her chances; he was heard on a hot mic Wednesday saying “she’s going to get smoked,” presumably referring to Ms. Haley, and he did not endorse her.Her appeal is concentrated among highly educated and moderate voters, who represent an outsize share of the electorate in New Hampshire. She also depends on the support of registered independents — in some other key primary contests, they are not eligible to vote. Back in 2016, moderate candidates who went nowhere nationally — John Kasich, Mr. Christie and Jeb Bush — added up to 34 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. If you add the 11 percent held by Mr. Rubio, a mainstream conservative, that’s 45 percent of the vote that went for establishment candidates. In other words, this state is not representative of the Republican electorate.But this time, the voters who backed those moderate Republicans will have a chance to coalesce behind a single candidate and, in doing so, deal a blow to Mr. Trump. The consequences may mostly prove to be symbolic: a rare Republican rebuke of Mr. Trump and a reminder that the old mainstream of the Republican Party remains to be reckoned with.But there is a chance, albeit a small one, that a Haley win in New Hampshire would prove to be more important. Mr. Trump may face criminal trials in the months ahead. While it seems exceedingly unlikely today, an erosion of his aura of dominance might make him ever so slightly more vulnerable if a trial gets underway. More

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    With Chris Christie Out, Nikki Haley Is Poised to Benefit in New Hampshire

    Ms. Haley has cut into former President Donald J. Trump’s lead in the state where Mr. Christie had spent significant time wooing voters opposed to Mr. Trump.The former New Jersey governor Chris Christie’s decision on Wednesday to drop out of the presidential race shook up a contest for the Republican nomination that had appeared to be former President Donald J. Trump’s for the taking, giving a huge shot of adrenaline to Nikki Haley just five days before ballots begin to be cast in the monthslong nomination fight.The most obviously altered battleground is likely to be New Hampshire, where Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and Mr. Trump’s first ambassador to the United Nations, is within striking distance of the former president. Even without his endorsement, many New Hampshire voters who planned to side with Mr. Christie as an opponent of Mr. Trump’s are likely to flip to Ms. Haley, as is potentially some of Mr. Christie’s leadership team.But the jolt will have much broader implications, argued John Sununu, a former New Hampshire senator and the brother of the current governor, Chris Sununu, both of whom have endorsed Ms. Haley. A contest that has centered on Mr. Trump’s return and the fight between Ms. Haley and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida for second place will now focus squarely on the threat Ms. Haley poses to Mr. Trump’s coronation.A memo that Mr. Trump’s campaign blasted out after Christie’s announcement on Wednesday night did just that, broadcasting what it called internal polling that showed Mr. Trump beating Ms. Haley in a head-to-head contest 56 percent to 40 percent.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Chris Christie Goes Down Swinging at Trump and Pleading With His Party

    Chris Christie closed out his second presidential campaign much as he began it, with a blistering and personal takedown of Donald J. Trump designed to prompt a reckoning in his party.Anticipation had been building all day for the remarks from Mr. Christie, a former governor of New Jersey, after news had spilled out hours earlier that he was telling close allies about his decision.With all three major cable news networks airing the speech live, Mr. Christie used the rare spotlight — something that had largely eluded his campaign — to make an urgent appeal to the better angels of his party. He framed his animosity toward Mr. Trump in sweeping, historical terms and cast himself as the experienced party elder warning of the possible dangers ahead.“Imagine just for a moment if 9/11 had happened with Donald Trump behind the desk,” Mr. Christie said. “The first thing he would have done was run to the bunker to protect himself. He would have put himself first before this country, and anyone who is unwilling to say that he is unfit to be president of the United States is unfit themselves to be president of the United States.”Mr. Trump’s campaign responded with a memo from his pollster, John McLaughlin, who said Mr. Christie “was going to be embarrassed” by the results of the Iowa caucuses on Monday and that he was “widely disliked” by voters in New Hampshire, which will hold its primary on Jan. 23. Mr. Christie had focused his campaign on New Hampshire, but struggled to make himself a contender.Mr. Christie also grappled with his own role in Mr. Trump’s rise, acknowledging that he had capitulated to ambition when he ended his 2016 presidential bid and surprised much of the political establishment at the time by backing Mr. Trump. Mr. Christie described his second campaign as something of a redemption tour.“I would rather lose by telling the truth than lie in order to win, and I feel no differently today, because this is a fight for the soul of our party and the soul of our country,” he said.Mr. Christie paced the stage as he spoke and at times appeared emotional, including when he talked about the supporters who had urged him to remain in the race. His voice cracked when he quoted Benjamin Franklin’s warning that Americans had been given “a republic, if you can keep it.”“Benjamin Franklin’s words were never more relevant in America than they are right now,” Mr. Christie said. “The last time they were this relevant was the Civil War.”Mr. Christie didn’t spare his rivals in the race, saying in public what he had expressed to others in private: that neither Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida nor former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina was going hard enough at Mr. Trump.He said that if Mr. Trump became the nominee, his win would be traceable to the first Republican debate. Mr. Christie was the only candidate on the stage who indicated that he would not support the former president if Mr. Trump were convicted of one of the 91 felony charges he is facing.“I want you to imagine for a second that Jefferson and Hamilton and Adams and Washington and Franklin were sitting here tonight,” Mr. Christie said. “Do you think they could imagine that the country they risked their lives to create would actually be having a conversation about whether a convicted criminal should be president of the United States?”But Mr. Christie’s speech is unlikely to move the needle inside the Republican Party. Many of the party’s most towering figures have tried in recent years without success.In 2016, Mitt Romney used his stature as Republicans’ previous presidential nominee to denounce Mr. Trump as a “fraud” whose promises were “worthless” and who was “playing the American public for suckers.” Mr. Trump won the nomination, and the White House.After the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, spoke from the Senate floor to say Mr. Trump’s supporters involved in the attack had been “fed lies” and “provoked by the president.” Mr. Trump was later acquitted in an impeachment trial in the Senate, a decision supported by Mr. McConnell.Two years ago, Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming, speaking from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, said Mr. Trump was “attempting to unravel the foundations of our constitutional republic” and had “gone to war with the rule of law.”She was unseated by a Trump-backed primary challenger months later.Alyce McFadden More

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    Chris Christie Drops Out of 2024 Presidential Race

    Former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey suspended his presidential campaign on Wednesday, but he undermined his effort to stop Donald J. Trump when he sweepingly dismissed his Republican rivals during a hot-mic moment.Minutes before his announcement in Windham, N.H., Mr. Christie could be heard on the event’s livestream, saying, “She’s going to get smoked, and you and I both know it,” in a reference to Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor. “She’s not up to this.” He added of Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, “DeSantis called me, petrified.”Mr. Trump immediately seized on the remarks, writing on Truth Social that Mr. Christie’s comments about Ms. Haley, who appears to be the most significant obstacle to a Trump victory in New Hampshire, were a “very truthful statement.”In his speech, Mr. Christie did not endorse any of his rivals, nor did he address their prospects against Mr. Trump, dashing the hopes of Republican moderates that his exit would unify remaining members of the party who oppose Mr. Trump.In fact, Mr. Christie denounced his opponents’ long-running public deference to the former president, and offered no positive remarks about their candidacies.“I would rather lose by telling the truth than lie in order to win,” he said. “And I feel no differently today because this is a fight for the soul of our party and the soul of our country.”His departure, which came after mounting pressure from within his party, effectively ends a phase of the Republican presidential contest, removing from the field its most aggressive Trump critic. He was the only prominent contender who declared that Mr. Trump was unfit for office — an argument that all but doomed his candidacy from the start.Nonetheless, Mr. Christie used the final moments of his campaign to unleash one last extended criticism of Mr. Trump, eviscerating his policies, lamenting the direction in which he has taken the country and asserting that he did not have the nation’s best interests at heart.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey was caught on a hot mic saying that a Republican presidential rival was “not up to this,” presumably referring to former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina.“Imagine just for a moment if 9/11 had happened with Donald Trump behind the desk,” Mr. Christie said. “The first thing he would have done was run to the bunker to protect himself. He would have put himself first, before this country.”His speech doubled as a dark warning for a party — and a country — that the former governor portrayed as veering dangerously off course, criticizing “the hate and the division and the selfishness of what our party has become under Donald Trump.”Mr. Christie also acknowledged regret for his actions after Mr. Trump defeated him in the 2016 primary race. Soon afterward, Mr. Christie shocked the political establishment by endorsing Mr. Trump, becoming the first significant former candidate to back him as his march to the nomination picked up pace.“For all the people who have been in this race, who have put their own personal ambition ahead of what’s right, they will ultimately have to answer the same questions that I had to answer after my decision in 2016,” he said. “Those questions don’t ever leave. In fact, they’re really stubborn. They stay.”Despite Mr. Christie’s withering criticisms of his rivals, his decision could turn the primary election in New Hampshire on Jan. 23 into a two-person race between Mr. Trump and Ms. Haley. Her positions on foreign policy, national security and the rule of law broadly overlap with Mr. Christie’s, and she will hope to consolidate never-Trump Republicans and independents behind her.After Mr. Christie’s speech, Ms. Haley praised him as “a friend for many years,” commending him in a statement “on a hard-fought campaign” but making no reference to the hot-mic comments. “I will fight to earn every vote,” she said.On Wednesday, Mr. DeSantis had called Mr. Christie to express his appreciation for his role in the contest, according to two people with knowledge of the call. During their conversation, Mr. Christie mocked Ms. Haley and said she was not up to the task, the people said.Mr. DeSantis wrote on social media on Wednesday, “I agree with Christie that Nikki Haley is ‘going to get smoked.’”Recent polls have shown Ms. Haley narrowing the gap against Mr. Trump in New Hampshire, and her backing combined with Mr. Christie’s support has sometimes equaled or bettered the former president’s. A CNN/University of New Hampshire poll released Tuesday found Mr. Trump with 39 percent support, Ms. Haley with 32 percent and Mr. Christie with 12 percent.Mr. Christie, a former United States attorney, built his candidacy around a prosecutorial argument about his domineering rival’s unsuitability for office. He steadfastly refused to water down his denunciations of Mr. Trump, a onetime ally turned bitter antagonist, even as most of his rivals labored to find a middle ground of praise and subtle contrasts.Mr. Christie and wife Mary Pat Christie hugged supporters after his announcement on Wednesday.Sophie Park for The New York TimesThat bold stance, and Republican voters’ lack of tolerance for it, left Mr. Christie trailing far behind in polls and fund-raising, managing to grab a foothold only in independent-minded New Hampshire. Yet the former governor regularly found himself in the shadow of Ms. Haley in the Granite State during the closing months of the campaign, with Gov. Chris Sununu endorsing Ms. Haley in December and later calling on Mr. Christie to withdraw from the race.For weeks, Mr. Christie rebuffed any suggestion that he should drop out, stressing the argument that his role as Mr. Trump’s chief critic in a dwindling Republican field was vital.As recently as Tuesday, he spoke at length about his reasons for forging ahead.“Let’s say I dropped out of the race right now, and I supported Nikki Haley,” he said. “And then three months from now, four months from now, we get ready to go to the convention. She comes out and is his vice president. What would it look like? What will all the people who supported her at my behest look like when she’s up on a stage in Milwaukee with her hands up like this with Donald Trump?”Mr. Christie’s familiarity with the former president gave him endless ammunition for attacks. He mocked Mr. Trump’s taste for well-done hamburgers and his love of cable news. He called attention to Mr. Trump’s criminal indictments, even as other Republican candidates sought to support the former president through his legal woes.But despite this barrage, Mr. Christie’s condemnation of Mr. Trump never took hold. He made a cringeworthy attempt to nickname his rival “Donald Duck” over Mr. Trump’s ducking of the primary debates. He was drowned out with resounding boos during the first debate when he tried to criticize Mr. Trump.In an attempt to show both expertise in foreign policy and a fearlessness to lead, Mr. Christie embarked on trips to conflict zones in Ukraine and Israel. He vividly recounted atrocities he had learned about in each place to buttress his aggressive support of those countries, though neither overseas venture broke through with voters.As he campaigned, Mr. Christie became more moderate than he had been in the past, either admitting to mistakes like endorsing Mr. Trump or evolving on issues such as same-sex marriage. “I was wrong,” Mr. Christie said of his opposition to such marriages at an event in New Hampshire last month. He peppered his stump speeches with references to former President George W. Bush, hardly a popular figure with today’s Republican base.Betting his entire campaign on New Hampshire, Mr. Christie argued in an interview with The New York Times in September that “once Donald Trump loses in one place, that entire rotted building will crumble.” He held dozens of town halls and other events across the small state, building modest traction and rising in polls, though he never came within striking distance of Mr. Trump. Mr. Christie’s allied super PAC dumped all of its advertising budget — $5.1 million as of Wednesday, according to AdImpact, a media-tracking firm — into the state.Some of Mr. Christie’s supporters expressed disappointment after his event on Wednesday. Toni Pappas, a Hillsborough County commissioner from Manchester, N.H., was one of them, but said, “I think he did something very noble and patriotic.”Tom Barton, a self-described libertarian from Washington, N.H., who planned to vote for Mr. Christie, said he could not see himself supporting another Republican. “They don’t have the courage to tell the truth about Trump,” he said.Still, most Republican voters had remained firmly opposed to Mr. Christie, who trudged on without changing his approach. If anything, his resolve to attack the former president increased.“The future of this country is going to be determined here,” Mr. Christie told a crowd at a New Hampshire brewery in September, clutching an I.P.A. It was a warning he would issue at nearly every campaign stop. “If Donald Trump wins here, he will be our nominee. Everything that happens after that is going to be on our party and on our country. It’s up to you.”Shane Goldmacher More

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    Chris Christie Caught on Hot Mic Before New Hampshire Town Hall

    As speculation about his future in the presidential race swirled, Chris Christie was caught on a hot mic on his campaign’s livestream in a conversation before his scheduled event in Windham, N.H., discussing his Republican rivals in the race.“She’s going to get smoked, and you and I both know it,” Mr. Christie said in the conversation, presumably referring to Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina. “She’s not up to this.”He noted that “she spent $68 million, just on TV, spent $68 million so far,” which is roughly the total that Ms. Haley and her allies have spent on television advertising in the race.Mr. Christie continued: “Fifty-nine million by DeSantis, and we spent 12. I mean, who’s punching above their weight, and who’s getting a return on their investment?”Mr. Christie then said that “DeSantis called me, petrified.”A person replied by speculating that Mr. DeSantis was “probably getting out after Iowa.”The audio on the livestream cut out after a few minutes, and in midsentence. The video stream was taken down moments later. More