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    A Tidal Wave of Change Is Headed for the U.S. Economy

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    When the Covid pandemic hit, factories in China shut down and global shipping traffic slowed. Within a matter of a few weeks, products began disappearing from U.S. store shelves and American firms that depend on foreign materials were going out of business.A similar trend is beginning to play out, but this time the catalyst is President Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to a minimum of 145 percent, an amount so steep that much of the trade between the United States and China has ground to a halt. Fewer massive container ships have been plying the ocean between Chinese and American ports, and in the coming weeks, far fewer Chinese goods will arrive on American shores.While high tariffs on Chinese products have been in place since early April, the availability of Chinese products and the price that consumers pay for them has not changed that much. But some companies are now starting to raise their prices. And experts say that the effects will become more and more obvious in the coming weeks, as a tidal wave of change stemming from canceled orders in Chinese factories works its way around the world to the United States.The number of massive container ships carrying metal boxes of toys, furniture and other products departing China for the United States has plummeted by about a third this month.The reason consumers haven’t felt many of the effects yet is because it takes 20 to 40 days for a container ship to travel across the Pacific Ocean. It then takes another one to 10 days for Chinese goods to make their way by train or truck to various cities around the country, economists at Apollo Global Management wrote in a recent report. That means that the higher tariffs on China that went into effect at the beginning of April are just starting to result in a drop in the number of ships arriving at American ports, a trend that should intensify.By late May or early June, consumers could start to see some empty shelves, and layoffs could occur for retailers and logistics industries. The major effects on the U.S. economy of shutting down trade with China will start to become apparent in the summer of 2025, when the United States might slip into a recession, said Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Adidas Warns Sneakers Will Cost More in the U.S. as Trump’s Tariffs Take Effect

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      The chief of the German sportswear giant said that unpredictability surrounding the tariffs prevented the company from issuing a full-year forecast, but he predicted a price increase for American consumers.The German sportswear company Adidas said on Tuesday that the increase in tariffs would lead to higher prices for its sneakers and sportswear for U.S. customers.“Since we currently cannot produce almost any of our products in the U.S., these higher tariffs will eventually cause higher costs for all our products for the U.S. market,” Bjorn Gulden, the company’s chief executive, said Tuesday on a call with analysts.Mr. Gulden said Adidas had sent extra inventory to the United States to clear customs before tariffs took effect, but he added that the company would eventually feel President Trump’s 10 percent base-line duty increase for all imports.“Cost increases due to higher tariffs will eventually cause price increases,” he said. “But it is currently impossible to quantify these or to conclude what impact this could have on the consumer demand for our products.”Adidas also rerouted some products that were made in China and destined for the United States to other markets, which are expected to become more important for the company in the wake of the growing trade war between the global superpowers.U.S. sales in the first three months of the year increased just 3 percent, because of the phasing out of the last sneakers in the popular Yeezy line, which were developed with the rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, as part of a collaboration that ended in 2022.In Europe, sales increased 14 percent in the first three months of the year, while sales in China grew 13 percent.The company, which is based in Herzogenaurach in southern Germany, said that it was refraining from issuing a profit outlook for the full year, citing the unpredictability that tariffs have caused, which affect many countries, including Indonesia and Vietnam, where Adidas produces many of its shoes and sportswear.“In a ‘normal world,” Mr. Gulden said, the company’s first-quarter results would have led it to raise the outlook for revenue and operating profit for 2025, but “the uncertainty regarding the U.S. tariffs has currently put a stop to this.” More

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      Shein and Temu Will be Hit by Trump’s China Tariffs. Americans Are Worried.

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      The Trump administration’s plan to add steep fees to packages from China will deal a blow to Temu, Shein and some TikTok Shop sellers, worrying American consumers.Tamika Johnson, a 44-year-old in Chicago, posted videos to TikTok this month about her orders from Shein, the Chinese e-commerce giant. She was nervous about potential delivery delays in the face of upcoming tariffs.Her 213,000 followers chimed in as she shared status updates on her purchases of clothing and suitcases, detailing their own plans for last-minute orders and sharing concerns about their shipments.“People are very worried,” Ms. Johnson, who posts to TikTok under the handle @TammyTheBlackPrepper, said in an interview. “I’m trying to stock up on clothes now and the things that I need.”Ms. Johnson is one of many American consumers who have been posting anxiously to TikTok and Reddit about a coming Trump administration-induced change for the Chinese e-commerce companies Shein and Temu, which sell inexpensive items like $8 dresses and $14 wagons. Starting on May 2, the Trump administration is poised to end a trade loophole that enabled the delivery of ultra low-cost goods from Chinese factories straight to Americans’ doorsteps without being subject to duties. That will add steep new fees to packages from Shein and Temu.At least some sellers on TikTok Shop, the popular app’s growing marketplace, and AliExpress, another Chinese e-commerce site, will also take a hit.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump Tariffs Could Raise iPhone Prices, But Affordable Options Remain

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      Even if gadget prices surge, we have plenty of cheaper options, like buying last year’s phone model instead of the latest and greatest.On Friday, amid a tariff-induced frenzy that drove hordes of consumers to panic-buy iPhones, President Trump announced a tariff exemption on electronics like smartphones and computers. For a moment, widespread anxiety about a potential $2,000 iPhone dissipated.But two days later, the Trump administration said smartphones and computers were likely to be hit with new tariffs targeting semiconductors, or chips. More expensive iPhones could come after all! Talk about whiplash.Don’t panic. Even if tariffs did cause the iPhone’s price to surge, we would have plenty of cheaper options, like buying last year’s phone model instead of the latest and greatest.The most important lesson we can learn from the turmoil: The only consistent way to save money on tech is to use devices for as long as possible, which requires maintaining them as you would a car, and upgrading only when you must.“Buy the best and drive it into the ground,” said Ramit Sethi, a personal finance expert. “Holding that item for longer will bring down the overall cost of ownership.”There remains lots of uncertainty around future costs of tech hardware in general. Nintendo this month canceled plans to start taking orders for its game console, the $450 Nintendo Switch 2, to evaluate the impact of tariffs on pricing and availability. Costs of some accessories, like phone chargers, power bricks and cases, have already risen on Amazon.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump’s Tariff Agenda Bets on Americans Giving Up Cheap Goods

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      Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argues that the American dream is about more than cheap televisions, but inflation-weary consumers might disagree.President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are expected to raise the cost of cars, electronics, metals, lumber, pharmaceuticals and other products that American consumers and businesses buy from overseas.But Mr. Trump and his advisers are betting that it can sell an inflation-weary public on a provocative idea: Cheap stuff is not the American dream.“I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American-made cars,” Mr. Trump said on NBC’s Meet the Press show on Sunday in response to fears of foreign car prices spiking.The notion that there is more to life than low-cost imports is an acknowledgment that tariffs could impose additional costs on Americans. It is also a pitch that the burden will be worth it. Mr. Trump’s ability to convince consumers that it is acceptable to pay more to support domestic manufacturing and adhere to his “America First” agenda could determine whether the president’s second term is a success or a calamity.But it is not an easy sell. The onslaught of tariffs has roiled markets and dampened consumer confidence. Auto tariffs that go into effect on Thursday will add a 25 percent tax on imports of cars and car parts, likely upending pricing in the sector. Mr. Trump has already imposed tariffs of 20 percent on Chinese goods and more are expected later this week, when the president announces his “reciprocal” tariffs on major trading partners, including those in Asia and Europe.In confronting anxiety over the trade uncertainty, Mr. Trump and his top economic aides have resorted to asking Americans to think about the bigger picture. They espouse the view that Mr. Trump’s trade wars are necessary to correct decades of economic injustice and that paying a bit more should be a matter of national pride.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops as Inflation Anxiety Soars

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      Policy uncertainty and tariff whiplash are making consumers less confident about the economic outlook and more worried about inflation, new data from the University of Michigan showed on Friday, the latest evidence that Americans are bracing for pain in President Trump’s second term.A new survey released on Friday showed consumer sentiment plummeting 11 percent in March as Americans of all ages, income groups and political affiliations turned even more downbeat about the trajectory for the economy. Consumer confidence has fallen for the third consecutive month, not only about personal finances, but also the job market and stock markets. Since December, sentiment has tumbled 22 percent.“Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors; frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of one’s policy preferences,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers at the University of Michigan.Consumers also revised up their expectations for inflation, both for the year ahead and over a five-year horizon. Over the next 12 months, consumers expect inflation to rise to 4.9 percent, up from a forecast for 4.3 percent last month. Over the longer run, expectations rose to 3.9 percent in what was the largest monthly jump since 1993. According to the latest Consumer Price Index report, inflation stands at 2.8 percent.“This is an horrific report,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Elevated economic policy uncertainty and the sharp drop in stock prices have greatly undermined consumers’ confidence.”The preliminary data comes as President Trump and his top economic advisers have acknowledged that the president’s plans to reshape global trade through aggressive tariffs, to right size government spending and to alter the American immigration system, among other sweeping changes could hurt the economy or even push it into a recession.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Macy’s Earnings Report Details Multimillion-Dollar Accounting Error

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      Analysts see much bigger challenges for the retailer than lax accounting.With just two weeks until Christmas, Macy’s has been operating under a cloud. The retailer shocked Wall Street last month when it said that an employee had “intentionally” hidden more than $150 million over the past few years, forcing the company to delay an earnings report that analysts use to gauge its health as it enters the most important selling season.On Wednesday, Macy’s gave investors a full look at its financials and provided more information about the accounting snafu that involved how it measured the cost of delivering small packages. It found “no material impact” on its previous results, but nonetheless had to revise its accounts going back a few years and lower its forecast for profits this year.Macy’s confirmed in a filing that a single employee, who is no longer with the company, “intentionally made erroneous accounting entries and falsified underlying documentation, to understate delivery expenses” from late 2021 through the third quarter of this year. On a call with analysts, Adrian Mitchell, Macy’s finance chief, said the error was not made for personal financial gain.“This was not theft,” he said. “There was no impact to revenues, and there was no impact to cash or inventories as all vendors were fully paid.”Macy’s said it was taking measures to improve its financial controls, including “re-evaluating the risk of employee circumvention of controls.”Concerns still remain about how the company will turn around its falling sales and fend off activist investors pushing for major changes.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      It’s Not Too Late to Rein In Holiday Spending

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      Research suggests that you’ll spend less than you otherwise would by setting a strict budget — even if you go over the budget.Black Friday and Cyber Monday have come and gone. So you may think that setting limits on holiday spending is a lost cause, right?Not so, said Jamie L. Clark, a certified financial planner in Seattle. The December holidays are still weeks away. “It’s never too late to make a plan.”Chuck Howard, an associate professor of business administration at the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business, said research suggests you’ll spend less by setting a holiday budget that’s “optimistically low.”That’s because even when compliance with budgets is weak, setting stricter, even somewhat unrealistic budgets tends to lead to lower spending, according to a study he helped write on the influence of budgeting on personal spending.Dr. Howard cited this example. Say you usually spend $500 a month dining out. You may think a realistic budget is $400 a month. But if you really want to cut back, you should set a budget of, say, $250. That way, if you spend $350, you’ve still spent much less than you used to.A tight holiday-spending limit serves as a reference point, he said, and even if you surpass it, you’ll probably spend less than if you had set a higher limit or hadn’t set a budget in the first place.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Walmart Stock Rises on Strong Earnings Ahead of Holiday Shopping Season

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      The bellwether retailer reported higher-than-expected sales in its latest quarter and upgraded its forecast for the rest of the year.Walmart has told its workers that it plans to “win” the holiday season. Ahead of the peak shopping period, the nation’s largest retailer appears well positioned, citing “broad-based strength” across its product range.Walmart said Tuesday that U.S. sales increased 5 percent in the third quarter, to $114.9 billion, easily surpassing analysts’ estimates. Sales at its U.S. e-commerce business jumped 22 percent, aided by pickup and delivery options as well as its expanding online advertising and marketplace business.The number of visits and the amount spent per visit both rose, a promising trend for the retailer. Walmart raised its full-year forecast for sales and profit, higher than the estimates it had already increased three months ago.Doug McMillon, Walmart’s chief executive, said the company had “momentum.” “In the U.S., in-store volumes grew, pickup from store grew faster, and delivery from store grew even faster than that,” he said in a statement on Tuesday. The results were somewhat affected by hurricanes and a strike by East Coast port workers, the company said, slightly raising sales but denting profits.Walmart, which brings in millions of customers each week, is a bellwether of U.S. consumer trends. The period between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day can make or break a retailer’s year, and companies are unsure about how freely shoppers will spend in the weeks ahead.Analysts have recently cautioned that Walmart’s success does not necessarily mean the rest of the retail industry will see similarly strong sales.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More