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    ¿Quién controlará el Senado? Los trabajadores de casinos podrían ser la clave

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    Los empleados de la hostelería tienen particular influencia en Nevada, donde el poderoso sindicato culinario de Las Vegas está convocando a sus integrantes para que ayuden a definir las contiendas reñidas.LAS VEGAS — Carlos Padilla caminaba hacia su camioneta pick-up y cargaba un bolso lleno de materiales de campaña y una agenda para moldear el futuro de Estados Unidos. Faltaban veinte días para las elecciones de medio mandato y Padilla, un chef pastelero, se dirigía a la sede de la Unión de Trabajadores Culinarios Local 226.La reunión a la que acababa de asistir había sido mitad sesión de negocios, mitad mitin político. Hubo consignas enérgicas (“¡Dos, dos, seis!”, “Si votamos, ¡ganamos!”) y discursos de políticos que pedían el apoyo de los 400 meseros, cocineros, garroteros y encargados de limpieza que estaban reunidos. Al igual que Padilla, todos pasaron el resto del día tocando las puertas de los votantes en una ciudad que desde hace tiempo ha sido un eje electoral en este estado pendular y en otros lugares.Incluso en el mundo de la mano de obra organizada, los trabajadores de la hospitalidad nunca han sido una gran fuerza. Sin embargo, las visitas de campaña a la sede del sindicato por parte de candidatos presidenciales (Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden) a lo largo de los años dan fe de la identidad inusual de este local que se caracteriza por el poder político.La fuente de ese poder son los 60.000 miembros del sindicato, quienes trabajan en los restaurantes, bares, casinos y hoteles que impulsan la economía de Las Vegas y Reno, ciudades en Nevada. Gracias a los contratos negociados por el sindicato, disfrutan de una seguridad laboral y estabilidad financiera que son poco comunes en la industria de la hospitalidad. Los salarios de los miembros promedian los 26 dólares por hora, según representantes del sindicato, y reciben aumentos cada año. Los empleos cuentan con prestaciones como seguro de salud, capacitación gratuita para avanzar en sus carreras e incluso ayuda para hacer el pago del enganche de una casa.Carlos Padilla, miembro del sindicato Unión de Trabajadores Culinarios Local 226, hacía campaña de puerta a puerta en Las Vegas, en octubre.Saeed Rahbaran para The New York TimesPadilla, de 53 años, está entre los cientos de miembros que toman días libres pagados (otro beneficio contractual) para hacer campaña a favor de los candidatos que el sindicato apoya.“Soy miembro del sindicato desde hace 29 años. He hecho cualquier cosa que me han pedido para ayudar”, comentó.El sindicato local (cuyos miembros a menudo lo llaman solo la Culinaria o 226) no siempre se ha impuesto en las contiendas del estado pendular, o swing state, que es el nombre que reciben los estados en disputa. Sin embargo, la diversidad de sus miembros incluye distritos electorales que los profesionales de la política creen que tienen acceso al poder. Alrededor del 55 por ciento de los miembros son mujeres y el 45 por ciento son inmigrantes. El miembro promedio es una mujer latina de 44 años.Otra gran ventaja es su experiencia en las campañas puerta a puerta. El ejército de trabajadores de la hospitalidad que pertenecen al sindicato ya ha tocado más de 750.000 puertas durante esta temporada de campaña, según los líderes sindicales, quienes creen que pueden influir en la elección a favor de los candidatos en gran medida demócratas que apoyan. Muchos candidatos luchan por su supervivencia política, la más notable es la senadora Catherine Cortez Masto, quien está en una cerrada contienda contra el aspirante republicano Adam Laxalt que podría determinar qué partido controla el Senado.Al preguntarles sobre cómo contrarrestarían la capacidad del sindicato de cambiar la decisión de los votantes, los representantes de la campaña de Laxalt respondieron con un comunicado en el que el candidato culpa a los demócratas de la inflación y los altos precios de la gasolina. “Lucharé por impuestos más bajos”, decía el documento “y lucharé contra los cierres del gobierno y los mandatos que dejan sin empleo a los trabajadores”.Una excepción a la inclinación del sindicato hacia los demócratas fue su respaldo a Brian Sandoval, un republicano, en su campaña de reelección de 2014 por la gubernatura. Sandoval no estuvo de acuerdo con su partido en temas importantes para el sindicato, tales como la reforma migratoria y la Ley de Atención Médica Asequible.Ningún republicano en la legislatura estatal votó por dos proyectos de ley recientes respaldados por el sindicato y relacionados con la pandemia: uno que brinda protecciones en el lugar de trabajo para trabajadores de la industria de la hospitalidad y otro que garantiza su derecho a regresar a sus antiguos trabajos.Barack Obama en la sala del sindicato previo a los caucus presidenciales demócratas de Nevada en 2008, durante su primera campaña electoral a la Casa Blanca. El sindicato lo apoyó. Ozier Muhammad para The New York TimesFundado en 1935, el sindicato se afianzó al reclutar trabajadores de otros lugares para que trabajaran en la desértica y pujante ciudad. Sus filas crecieron junto con la industria del juego de Nevada, y no siempre de forma armónica. Una huelga, que inició en 1991 en el hotel casino Frontier, duró más de seis años.Jim Manley, consultor político que fue ayudante del exsenador Harry Reid, dijo que en 2008 el sindicato se volvió imprescindible al ayudar a Obama a vencer a John McCain por 12 puntos porcentuales en Nevada, a pesar de que McCain era originario del vecino estado de Arizona.Hoy, la industria de la hospitalidad es el principal generador privado de empleos y los miembros del sindicato están enraizados en la estructura de poder del estado. Jacky Rosen, la senadora júnior de Nevada, fue miembro del sindicato y mesera en Caesar’s Palace.Las elecciones de la próxima semana serán las primeras desde la muerte de Reid. Fallecido en diciembre pasado, Reid era un político aguerrido cuya relación cercana con el sindicato resultó mutuamente beneficiosa. “La duda es si la maquinaria de Reid es tan efectiva como lo fue en el pasado”, dijo Manley.Jon Ralston, un periodista veterano de Nevada especializado en política, opinó que, para ganar una elección de medio mandato que parece favorecer a los republicanos, los demócratas de Nevada necesitan que el sindicato aumente la cantidad de votantes demócratas que acudirán a las urnas en el condado de Clark, que incluye a Las Vegas.“Es así de sencillo”, escribió en un mensaje de texto y agregó que el sindicato “tiene los recursos humanos y la experiencia para hacerlo”.Padilla comenzó como chef pastelero en Treasure Island, un casino y hotel, hace casi 30 años, tras mudarse a Las Vegas desde Flagstaff, Arizona. Empezó a interesarse en el trabajo del sindicato cuando su cuñado, un trabajador siderúrgico, lo llevó a un mitin. “Resultó que era la Culinaria la que organizaba el mitin”, dijo. “Estaba impresionado”En los últimos dos años, Padilla ha pasado más tiempo realizando campañas de puerta en puerta que horneando pan o pastelitos. En la antesala de las elecciones de 2020, cuando lo despidieron de su trabajo debido a los cierres por la pandemia, el sindicato le pagó para que hiciera campaña puerta a puerta.Luego se mudó temporalmente a Georgia, donde se unió a otros trabajadores que ayudaron a que Raphael Warnock ganara la segunda vuelta que le dio a los demócratas la mayoría de un voto en el Senado. (Los funcionarios sindicales dijeron que los encuestadores probablemente regresarían a Georgia si la campaña por el Senado llega a una segunda vuelta).La congresista Susie Lee, que está en una reñida contienda por la reelección, se dirigió a los integrantes del sindicato en una visita reciente a su sede. La presentó la senadora Jackie Rosen, de rojo, quien fue mesera y miembro del sindicato.Saeed Rahbaran para The New York Times“La gente a la que elegimos es la gente que nos ayudó a mantener el seguro de salud y las prestaciones de desempleo durante la covid”, dijo Padilla. “Ayudamos a la gente que nos ayuda”.Tenía un mensaje parecido para los votantes en octubre, cuando recorría un barrio de clase obrera en la zona norte de la ciudad. Era en el distrito del Representante Steven Horsford, quien fue líder de la Academia Culinaria de Las Vegas, una escuela para trabajadores de la industria que opera el sindicato.Una votante, Deborah Gallacher, le dijo a Padilla que no sabía si votaría este año pero que Horsford “ha tocado a mi puerta. He votado por él siempre que ha estado en la boleta”.Padilla le respondió, “es momento de volver a hacerlo”.Iba con Rocio Leonardo, de 30 años, trabajadora del Resort y Casino Aria. Leonardo, que de niña se mudó de Guatemala a Las Vegas, también hizo campaña en 2020, aunque no es ciudadana y no puede votar. “Hago esto porque siento que es algo positivo para mis hijos”, dijo.Leonardo se aproximó a una casa que tenía banderas de la Infantería de Marina colgando de la puerta de la cochera. Tocó dos veces la puerta, mientras unos perros ladraban de manera inquietante. La mujer que al final salió a la puerta estaba en una llamada telefónica y lucía molesta, hasta que vio la camiseta del sindicato de Leonardo.“Yo también soy Culinaria”, dijo. “Tienen mi voto”.Mientras se alejaba, Leonardo marcó que la mujer “no estaba en casa” en la base de datos de votantes de su teléfono inteligente con el fin de que un trabajador de la campaña regresara para asegurarse de que vote.Esa perseverancia, aunque es tediosa, ha tenido resultados.Padilla en campaña puerta a puerta con Rocio Leonardo, una trabajadora de Guatemala que no puede votar. “Hago esto porque siento que es algo positivo para mis hijos”.Saeed Rahbaran para The New York TimesTed Pappageorge, el secretario-tesorero del sindicato, indicó que elegir aliados para cargos públicos fortalece la posición del sindicato cuando negocia en nombre de sus miembros. “No hacemos cosas sindicales para poder ganar en la política. Hacemos política para poder ganar en contratos sindicales”.Pappageorge expresó que el sindicato está especialmente motivado en este ciclo electoral, ya que los contratos de cinco años con empleadores de la gran mayoría de sus miembros en Las Vegas concluirán el año próximo. “Vamos a tener negociaciones realmente difíciles”, afirmó. “Creemos que podríamos tener huelgas”.El sindicato también está presionando a los políticos locales para que apoyen un programa que busca combatir el rápido ascenso de los costos de las viviendas. Leonardo señaló que el año pasado los caseros aumentaron la renta mensual de la casa que comparte con su esposo y cuatro hijos de 900 a 1400 dólares.“Pensé que era un error”, dijo.Padilla, que tiene tres hijos, comenta los costos de vivienda con todos los votantes que puede. Dice que cuando sus caseros aumentaron el precio del alquiler en 400 dólares, le dijeron: “No hay ninguna ley en Nevada que indique que no podemos aumentar la renta tanto como lo deseemos”.Durante un breve descanso en la campaña puerta a puerta, Padilla comenzó a reflexionar. “Por eso, me tomo esta elección muy en serio”, aseveró. “Siempre hay una lucha”.Brett Anderson empezó a colaborar con la sección Food en julio de 2019. Fue crítico de restaurantes y redactor de reportajes en The Times-Picayune, en Nueva Orléans, de 2000 a 2019. Ha ganado tres premios James Beard, entre ellos el Premio Jonathan Gold a la Voz Local y en 2017 fue nombrado reportero del año de Eater por su cobertura del acoso sexual en la industria de los restaurantes. @BrettEats More

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      How These Las Vegas Workers Could Swing the Nevada Midterm Election

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      Hospitality workers enjoy unusual clout in Nevada, where the powerful Las Vegas culinary union is rallying members to tip close races.LAS VEGAS — Carlos Padilla walked to his pickup truck with a shoulder bag full of campaign literature and an agenda for shaping the future of the country. It was 20 days before the midterm elections, and Mr. Padilla, a pastry chef, was on his way out of the headquarters of the Culinary Workers Union 226.The meeting he’d just attended was part business session, part political rally. There were energizing chants (“2-2-6!” “We vote, we win!”) and speeches from politicians pleading for the support of the 400 assembled servers, cooks, bussers and guest room attendants. Like Mr. Padilla, all would spend the rest of the day knocking on voters’ doors in a city that has long been an electoral pivot in this swing state, and beyond.Even in the world of organized labor, hospitality workers have never been much of a force. But campaign visits to the union hall by presidential candidates — Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden — over the years attest to this local’s unusual brand: political power.The source of that power is the union’s 60,000 members, who work in the restaurants, bars, casinos and hotels that drive the economies of Las Vegas and Reno. Thanks to union-negotiated contracts, they enjoy job security and financial stability that are uncommon in hospitality businesses. Wages for members of the local average $26 per hour, according to union officials, and rise every year. The jobs come with health insurance, free training for career advancement and even help in making a down payment on a home.Carlos Padilla, a pastry chef at the Treasure Island casino-hotel, handed campaign literature to Deborah Gallacher, a prospective voter.Saeed Rahbaran for The New York TimesMr. Padilla, 53, is among the hundreds of members who take paid leaves of absence from their jobs (another contract provision) to campaign for candidates the union supports.“I’m a 29-year union member,” Mr. Padilla said. “Anything they’ve ever asked me to do to help, I’ve done.”The local — often referred to by members simply as Culinary, or 226 — hasn’t always prevailed in this swing state’s races. But its diverse membership includes constituencies that political professionals believe hold the keys to power. About 55 percent of members are women, and 45 percent are immigrants. The average member is a 44-year-old Latina.Canvassing expertise is another big advantage. The union’s army of hospitality workers has already knocked on more than 750,000 doors this campaign season, according to union leaders, who believe they can tip the election in favor of the largely Democratic slate they’re currently supporting. Many candidates are fighting for their political lives, most notably Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, who is in a tight race against the Republican challenger Adam Laxalt that could determine which party controls the Senate.Asked how they would counteract the union’s ability to turn out voters, Mr. Laxalt’s campaign responded with a statement blaming Democrats for inflation and high gasoline prices. “I will fight for lower taxes,” it read, “and I will fight against government shutdowns and mandates that put workers out of a job.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.A Pivotal Test in Pennsylvania: A battle for blue-collar white voters is raging in President Biden’s birthplace, where Democrats have the furthest to fall and the most to gain.Governor’s Races: Democrats and Republicans are heading into the final stretch of more than a dozen competitive contests for governor. Some battleground races could also determine who controls the Senate.Biden’s Agenda at Risk: If Republicans capture one or both chambers of Congress, the president’s opportunities on several issues will shrink. Here are some major areas where the two sides would clash.Ohio Senate Race: Polls show Representative Tim Ryan competing within the margin of error against his G.O.P. opponent, J.D. Vance. Mr. Ryan said the race would be “the upset of the night,” but there is still a cold reality tilting against Democrats.One exception to the union’s Democratic tilt was its endorsement of Brian Sandoval, a Republican, in his 2014 re-election campaign for governor. Mr. Sandoval broke with his party on issues important to the union, like immigration reform and the Affordable Care Act.No Republicans in the state legislature voted for two recent union-backed, pandemic-related bills — one that provides workplace protections for hospitality workers, and one that guarantees their right to return to their old jobs.Barack Obama spoke at the union hall before the Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses in 2008, during his first run for the White House. The union endorsed him.Ozier Muhammad for The New York TimesFounded in 1935, the union established itself by recruiting workers from elsewhere to take jobs in this burgeoning desert city. Its ranks grew alongside Nevada’s gambling industry, not always harmoniously. One strike, which began in 1991 at the Frontier casino-hotel, lasted more than six years.Jim Manley, a political consultant who was an aide to former Senator Harry Reid, said the union became impossible to ignore in 2008, when it helped Mr. Obama beat John McCain by 12 percentage points in Nevada, even though Mr. McCain was from neighboring Arizona.Today, the hospitality industry is Nevada’s biggest private employer, and union members are entrenched in the state’s power structure. Jacky Rosen, Nevada’s junior senator, is a former union member and Caesar’s Palace server.Next week’s elections will be the first since the death last December of Mr. Reid, a political brawler whose close relationship with the union was mutually beneficial. “The question is whether the Reid machine is as effective as it was in the past,” Mr. Manley said.To win in a midterm election that seems to favor Republicans, Nevada Democrats need the union to drive up Democratic voter turnout in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, said Jon Ralston, a veteran Nevada political journalist.“It’s that simple,” he wrote in a text message, adding that the union “has the bodies and experience to do it.”Mr. Padilla started as a pastry chef at Treasure Island, a casino and hotel, nearly 30 years ago, after moving to Las Vegas from Flagstaff, Ariz. He became interested in union work when his brother-in-law, an iron worker, took him to a rally. “Turned out it was Culinary that was holding this rally,” he said. “I was in awe.”In the past two years, Mr. Padilla has spent more time canvassing than baking bread and pastries. In the run-up to the 2020 elections, when he was laid off from his job because of pandemic shutdowns, the union paid him to canvass door-to-door.He then moved temporarily to Georgia, where he joined other hospitality workers helping Raphael Warnock win a tight runoff election that gave Democrats a one-vote Senate majority. (Union officials said canvassers would likely return to Georgia if the current Senate race goes to a runoff.)Representative Susie Lee, who is in a tight re-election battle, addressing members during a recent visit to the union hall. She was introduced by Senator Jacky Rosen (in red), a former union member and Caesar’s Palace server.Saeed Rahbaran for The New York Times“The people we elected are the people who helped us keep our health insurance and unemployment benefits during Covid,” Mr. Padilla said. “We help the people who help us.”He brought a similar message to voters in October as he canvassed in a working-class neighborhood on the north side of town. It was in the district of Representative Steven Horsford, a former head of the Culinary Academy of Las Vegas, a school for hospitality workers run by the union.One voter, Deborah Gallacher, told Mr. Padilla that she didn’t know yet if she would vote this year, but that Mr. Horsford “has knocked on my door. I voted for him every time he’s been on the ticket.”Mr. Padilla responded, “It’s time again.”He worked alongside Rocio Leonardo, 30, a room cleaner at Aria Resort & Casino. Ms. Leonardo, who moved to Las Vegas from Guatemala as a child, also campaigned in 2020, although she is not a citizen and can’t vote. “I do this because it feels like something positive for my children,” she said.Ms. Rocio approached a house with Marine Corps and prisoner of war flags hanging from the garage. She knocked twice on the door, as dogs barked ominously. The woman who finally came to the door was on a phone call and looked upset — until she saw Ms. Rocio’s union T-shirt.“I’m Culinary, too,” she said. “You’ve got my vote.”Walking away, Ms. Leonardo marked the woman as “not home” in the voter database on her smartphone, so a campaign worker would return to make sure she voted.Such persistence, while often tedious in practice, has delivered results.Mr. Padilla canvassing with Rocio Leonardo, a hotel room cleaner from Guatemala who can’t vote. “I do this because it feels like something positive for my children,” she said.Saeed Rahbaran for The New York TimesElecting allies to public office strengthens the union’s hand when negotiating on behalf of its members, said Ted Pappageorge, the union’s secretary-treasurer. “We don’t do union stuff so we can win in politics,” he said. “We do politics so we can win in union contracts.”The union is especially motivated this election cycle, Mr. Pappageorge said, because the five-year contracts with employers for the vast majority of its Las Vegas members will expire next year. “We’re going to have really difficult negotiations,” he said. “We think we may have strikes.”The union is also pushing local politicians to support a program to combat the fast-rising cost of housing. Last year, Ms. Leonardo said landlords raised the monthly rent for the house she shares with her husband and four children to $1,400 a month, from $900.“I thought it was a typo,” she said.Mr. Padilla, a father of three, brings up housing costs with as many voters as he can. When landlords raised his rent by $400 last year, he said they told him, “There’s no law in Nevada that says they can’t raise the rent as much as they want.”During a brief break from canvassing, he shook his head in dismay. “I take this election seriously because of that,” he said. “There’s always a fight.”Follow New York Times Cooking on Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok and Pinterest. Get regular updates from New York Times Cooking, with recipe suggestions, cooking tips and shopping advice. More

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      Democrats Have a Whole Lot Riding on Nevada

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      LAS VEGAS — Nevada has long been a bellwether in national elections. The caricature of a casino on every block and a slot machine in every grocery store has given way to the reality of a diverse state with growing minority populations and a widening urban-rural divide that is a microcosm of America.The truth is — and never could it be more resonant than this year — for Democrats, as goes Nevada, so goes the nation. Nevada has a closely fought contest for governor, with the Democratic incumbent, Steve Sisolak, facing Joe Lombardo, sheriff of the most populous county. And its congressional races could help determine partisan control of both chambers: In three of its four House races and in the contest for U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbents are in tight battles.For Democrats, Nevada holds promise and peril. It is truly a purple state, and Democrats are hoping to hold together a tenuous multiracial coalition and keep at bay a Republican Party determined to flip the state red.The pressure is particularly acute for Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto. Across the country, from Georgia to Pennsylvania to Arizona, Senate races are neck and neck, and Nevada is no different; a very slight Democratic advantage has given way to pretty much a dead heat. If this seat gives Senate control to the Republicans, it could change the direction of the country on major public policy issues, including abortion, and most obviously, on confirming judges.Ms. Cortez Masto faces Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general who is embraced by both Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell and is the son and grandson of Republican senators. The challenges for Ms. Cortez Masto reflect struggles for Democrats across the country — worries over inflation and the economy, a distinct urban-rural split among the electorate, an opponent who has endorsed Mr. Trump’s baseless claims of a stolen election and, especially for the first Latina elected to the Senate, a need for robust support from Hispanic voters.She has emphasized the achievements of Democrats in Congress — especially the infrastructure bill, the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, and their impact on manufacturing and other jobs. And she has also focused on abortion as part of her outreach to Latino voters, since a majority of Hispanics in the state support abortion rights.Ms. Cortez Masto might as well be running in three states in one: Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, represented about 70 percent of the vote in the 2020 presidential elect (Joe Biden won it by just under nine points); Washoe County, which includes Reno, has just under 20 percent (Mr. Biden won here by 4.5 points); and 15 rural counties, many of which Mr. Trump won with over 70 percent of the vote.She will benefit from an electoral machine built by Harry Reid, the longtime senator who died last year, that Democrats in the rest of the country have looked at with envy. For years, that machine has reliably registered voters and then turned them out. The question this year is if it will be enough to overcome significant economic and electoral headwinds.Adam Jentleson, who worked closely with Mr. Reid, wrote last year that the Nevada Democratic machine “focused on the tough work of building coalitions between organized labor and progressive groups and invested in the nuts and bolts of politics, like voter registration.”In 2016, Mr. Reid’s operation helped Ms. Cortez Masto win by 2.5 points. It is a model for Democratic state operations: It has helped produce Democratic victories in cycles since 2008 (with 2014 an outlier red wave year) for presidential as well as most midterm elections, when the national party often struggles to get its full coalition to the polls.The turnout next month will be a critical test of how that machine operates in the first elections since its founder’s death. Mr. Reid was a unique figure. His ability to raise money for candidates kept the machine humming.Since Mr. Reid’s death, the Nevada model — the Reid machine in coordination with the Democratic Party — has shown some cracks. The Reid machine, now in the hands of Ms. Cortez Masto and Governor Sisolak, and the party have clashed over money and policy direction on everything from support for Israel to primary endorsements. Young activists, keen on pulling the party to the left, have taken up positions in the party itself, alienating Reid operatives.What this likely means for Ms. Cortez Masto and other Democrats in Nevada is that they cannot expect to have the kind of overwhelming fund-raising advantage that they have been used to.That is not the only concern for Democrats. Despite her heritage, Ms. Cortez Masto is fighting to maintain a grip on a majority of Latino voters, who will account for 15 percent to 20 percent of the general electorate.Ms. Cortez Masto had never worn her ethnicity on her sleeve, but she has been emphasizing it in this race. Her campaign has significantly ramped up its Latino voter contact efforts, hiring a Spanish-speaking press secretary, holding events in the community and announcing during Hispanic Heritage Month that 200 Latino leaders had endorsed her.Ms. Cortez Masto’s personal story, as a pioneering Latina legislator, is a ubiquitous element of her pitch. In her ads, she has emphasized her family, including a grandfather from Mexico — Mexican immigrants make up a majority of the Latino population in the state.She will also depend on another turnout machine: the Culinary Workers Union, which is at least half Hispanic and represents tens of thousands of casino employees. The union is expected to knock on over one million doors for this election, about twice as many as it did in 2020.Since the Dobbs decision overturning Roe, Ms. Cortez Masto has been relentlessly using abortion to attack Mr. Laxalt, who supports an abortion ban after 13 weeks of pregnancy. Still, like many Democrats in purple states, she remains vulnerable. In a recent poll, Ms. Cortez Masto led Mr. Laxalt by 19 points among Hispanics, but nearly a third of that demographic was undecided. When she won in 2016, she was estimated to have won over 60 percent of Hispanics, which is well above where she is polling right now.Nevada observers on both sides of the aisle say she is running the best campaign in the state. Her ads are sharp, her social media presence ubiquitous and her campaign disciplined. Ms. Cortez Masto, who has long prided herself on being a workhorse, has shown an indomitability that would have impressed Mr. Reid. She also has adopted her mentor’s fund-raising prowess, having much more cash on hand than Mr. Laxalt.Most years, she would be considered a favorite. But this year, nearly all of the numbers in Nevada tilt toward the Republicans. President Biden’s approval ratings here are just over 40 percent. Unemployment is still high relative to the rest of the country, and inflation continues to take a bite out of paychecks. And a Democratic registration advantage has eroded as nonpartisan registration has expanded.Republicans now see the Nevada Senate race as one of their best shots at gaining control of the Senate, with Ms. Cortez Masto vulnerable. If she prevails, her campaign could provide a blueprint for Democrats elsewhere, especially in the Mountain West and Southwest, on the way to 2024.Nevada, once again, could be the neon beacon for the country.Jon Ralston is the chief executive of The Nevada Independent.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More