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    Abolish the Penny?

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    Inside an intractable problem inside America’s change purses. I have good news and I have bad news. Actually, I have crazy news and I have bad news. Actually, all the news I have is bad, but some of it is also crazy. Before you become totally freaked out, all the news I’m describing here is about pennies; it’s nothing life and death. But you do need to buckle up.If you are reading this and live in America, or used to live in America, or maybe just went to America one time many years ago, then you are almost certainly performing unpaid labor for the U.S. government and have been for years. How? By storing some of the billions of pennies the U.S. Mint makes every year that virtually no one uses.Why are we still making tons (many thousands of tons) of pennies if no one uses them? That’s a sensible question with a psychotic answer: We have to keep making all these pennies — over $45 million worth last year — because no one uses them. In fact, it could be very bad if we did.When you insert a quarter into a soda machine, that quarter eventually finds its way back to a bank, from which it can be redistributed to a store’s cash register and handed out as change — maybe even to you, who can put it into a soda machine again and start the whole process over. That’s beautiful. (Please be mindful of your soft drink consumption.)But few of us ever spend pennies. We mostly just store them. The 1-cent coins are wherever you’ve left them: a glass jar, a winter purse, a RAV4 cup holder, a five-gallon water cooler dispenser, the couch. Many of them are simply on the ground. But take it from me, a former cashier: Cashiers don’t have time to scrounge on the sidewalk every time they need to make change. That is where the Mint comes in. Every year it makes a few billion more pennies to replace the ones everyone is thoughtlessly, indefinitely storing and scatters them like kudzu seeds across the nation.You — a scientist of some kind, possibly — might think an obvious solution now presents itself: Why not encourage people to use the pennies they have lying around instead of manufacturing new ones every year? We can’t! Or, anyway, we’d better not. According to a Mint report, if even a modest share of our neglected pennies suddenly returned to circulation, the result would be a “logistically unmanageable” dilemma for Earth’s wealthiest nation. As in, the penny tsunami could overwhelm government vaults.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      China’s First Quarter Results Show Growth Propelled by Its Factories

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      China’s big bet on manufacturing helped to counteract its housing slowdown in the first three months of the year, but other countries are worried about a flood of Chinese goods.The Chinese economy grew more than expected in the first three months of the year, new data shows, as China built more factories and exported huge amounts of goods to counter a severe real estate crisis and sluggish spending at home.To stimulate growth, China, the world’s second-largest economy, turned to a familiar tactic: investing heavily in its manufacturing sector, including a binge of new factories that have helped to propel sales around the world of solar panels, electric cars and other products. But China’s bet on exports has worried many foreign countries and companies. They fear that a flood of Chinese shipments to distant markets may undermine their manufacturing industries and lead to layoffs.On Tuesday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said the economy grew 1.6 percent in the first quarter over the previous three months. When projected out for the entire year, the first-quarter data indicates that China’s economy was growing at an annual rate of about 6.6 percent.“The national economy made a good start,” said Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the statistics bureau, while cautioning that “the foundation for stable and sound economic growth is not solid yet.”Retail sales increased at a modest pace of 4.7 percent compared with the first three months of last year, and were particularly weak in March. We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Honor Roberto Clemente With a Coin, Congressman Says

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      The right fielder for the Pittsburgh Pirates deserves to be commemorated with a coin, Representative Adriano Espaillat says.Good morning. It’s Thursday. Today we’ll find out why a congressman from the Bronx is pressing for a coin to commemorate a baseball player from the Pittsburgh Pirates. We’ll also see what to expect as Donald Trump’s civil fraud trial moves into its final phase.Preston Stroup/Associated PressRepresentative Adriano Espaillat has introduced 49 bills in this session of Congress. One would direct colleges to send information about hate crimes to the federal Department of Education. Another would simplify the requirements for federal assistance after disasters like Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico in 2017.Yet another bill would authorize a coin commemorating Roberto Clemente, the superlative right fielder who played for only one team in 18 years in the major leagues, the Pittsburgh Pirates.Why is a congressman from the Bronx cheering on a star of a team that beat the Yankees in the World Series?“I watched him play,” Espaillat said, before talking about how deep the Pirates’ stadium was when Clemente played there — 457 feet to the center-field wall.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      Javier Milei y sus similitudes con Donald Trump

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      Se hizo famoso denigrando personas en la televisión. Lanza duros ataques contra sus críticos en línea. Porta un revoltoso corte de cabello que se ha convertido en meme. Y hoy es el líder de la extrema derecha de su país.Donald Trump, y su ascenso a la presidencia estadounidense en 2016, comparte algunas similitudes sorprendentes con el hombre detrás del momento que se desarrolla en la actualidad en Argentina, la nueva sensación política del país, Javier Milei.Milei, un economista libertario y comentarista televisivo, solía ser visto como un actor secundario en la contienda presidencial argentina, al que ni los medios de noticias ni sus rivales tomaban en serio. Pero actualmente, tras una campaña impetuosa y desde una postura de outsider basada en la promesa de que solo él puede solucionar los profundos problemas económicos del país, es el favorito para ganar los comicios este mismo domingo o pasar a una segunda vuelta el próximo mes.Milei, de 52 años, ya ha trastocado la política de su país de 46 millones de habitantes. Sus promesas de eliminar el banco central de Argentina y abandonar su moneda en favor del dolar estadounidense han dominado el debate nacional, y al mismo tiempo han ayudado a impulsar un mayor colapso en el valor del peso argentino.Sin embargo, ha sido su estilo político belicoso el que le ha ganado comparaciones con Trump, así como una preocupación generalizada en Argentina y la región sobre el daño que su gobierno podría infligir en la tercera economía más grande de América Latina.Milei ha atacado a la prensa y al papa; ha declarado que el cambio climático forma parte de la “agenda socialista”; calificó a China, el segundo socio comercial más importante de Argentina, de asesina; prometió la desregulación del mercado legal de armas; afirmó que es víctima de un fraude electoral; cuestionó las elecciones presidenciales más recientes en Estados Unidos y Brasil; y sugirió que los disturbios de extrema derecha que siguieron a esos procesos electorales habían sido complots de la izquierda.Milei rodeado de seguidores en Salta, Argentina. Su campaña impetuosa y desde una perspectiva de outsider lo ha convertido en uno de los favoritos para las elecciones del domingo.Sarah Pabst para The New York Times“Muy claramente es un mini Trump”, dijo Federico Finchelstein, un argentino que dirige el departamento de historia en la New School en Nueva York y estudia a la extrema derecha en todo el mundo.Milei, Trump y Jair Bolsonaro, expresidente de Brasil, son todos practicantes destacados de la corriente moderna de la política de extrema derecha, dijo Finchelstein, marcada por la vulgaridad, los ataques a las instituciones, el descrédito de los medios de comunicación, la desconfianza en la ciencia, el culto a la personalidad y el narcisismo.“Trump es un ícono de esta nueva forma de populismo extremo”, afirmó Finchelstein. “Y Milei quiere emularlo”.Milei ha aceptado con beneplácito las comparaciones con Trump, a quien ha llamado “uno de los mejores presidentes” en la historia de Estados Unidos. Ha utilizado gorras con el eslogan en inglés de “Make Argentina Great Again” (“Haz que Argentina sea grande de nuevo”) y, al igual que Trump, ha forjado su campaña en mayor parte en las redes sociales. Y en los dos meses previos a la votación del domingo, le concedió una entrevista a una personalidad televisiva estadounidense: el expresentador de Fox News, Tucker Carlson.El grupo de campaña de Milei rechazó repetidas solicitudes de entrevista con The New York Times.Partidarios de Milei en la sede de su partido en Salta. El uso de Milei de las redes sociales lo ha hecho especialmente popular entre los argentinos jóvenes.Sarah Pabst para The New York TimesCon dos maestrías en economía, Milei puede llegar a sonar como profesor en ocasiones, cuando opina sobre la política monetaria y una corriente del libertarismo que sigue llamada anarcocapitalismo.Ha llamado al Estado “una organización criminal” que “vive de una fuente coactiva de ingresos llamada impuestos”. Además, afirma que lo impulsa una misión de reducir el gobierno y eliminarlo de las vidas de las personas, comenzando con el banco central argentino.Sus ideales libertarios también lo han hecho menos conservador en algunos temas sociales. Ha dicho que mientras el Estado no tenga que pagar por ello, podría apoyar la legalización de las drogas, la inmigración abierta, el trabajo sexual, los derechos de las personas trans, el matrimonio igualitario y la venta de órganos.Sin embargo, ha calificado al aborto de “asesinato” y ha prometido someterlo a referendo en Argentina, donde ha sido legal desde 2020.Milei sorprendió a las encuestadoras en agosto cuando ganó las elecciones primarias de Argentina, con cerca del 30 por ciento de los votos. Desde entonces ha liderado en las encuestas, superando a sus dos principales rivales: Sergio Massa, político de centroizquierda y ministro de Economía del país; y Patricia Bullrich, exministra de Seguridad de derecha.Milei ha recibido una cobertura periodística casi general durante la campaña, tanto por sus propuestas económicas radicales como por su personalidad excéntrica. Es un autoproclamado profesor de sexo tántrico con cinco perros mastines clonados. Su novia es una imitadora profesional de una de sus archirrivales políticos. Su directora de campaña y principal asesora política es su hermana.Un dólar con la imagen de Donald Trump en la oficina de uno de los asesores de Milei. El candidato ha elogiado la presidencia de Trump.Sarah Pabst para The New York TimesAl igual que Trump, Milei habla sobre la importancia de la imagen, como cuando le dijo a Carlson que su pasado como portero de fútbol semiprofesional y cantante de una banda de versiones de The Rolling Stones conforman una “combinación atractiva en términos de producto televisivo”. Milei hace casi siempre la misma mirada con el ceño y los labios fruncidos en todas las selfies que se toma con los votantes, lo que también hace recordar a Trump.El estilo característico de Milei —una chaqueta de cuero, una melena indomable y patillas largas— está diseñado para evocar al personaje de los cómics Wolverine, según Lilia Lemoine, una artista de cosplay profesional quien también es la estilista de Milei y se está postulando para el Congreso en su fórmula. Esto, según Lemoine, es porque, al igual que Wolverine, “él es un antihéroe”.El resultado es una legión de seguidores que se asemeja a un culto. En un evento reciente en Salta, una ciudad en el noroeste montañoso de Argentina, Milei iba en la caja de una camioneta mientras miles de votantes se empujaban para verlo de cerca. Sus partidarios llevaban pelucas despeinadas, repartían billetes falsos de 100 dólares con su cara y exhibían arte de sus perros, cuatro de los cuales llevan nombres de economistas conservadores.“Sí, todos lo califican por loco, por todo, pero qué mejor que un loco para que saque adelante el país”, dijo María Luisa Mamani, de 57 años, dueña de una carnicería. “Porque los que estuvieron cuerdos no hicieron nada”.Los argentinos han sobrellevado una de las peores crisis financieras del país.Sarah Pabst para The New York TimesMilei tuvo una aparición breve pero no habló. En realidad, el evento fue en gran medida un escenario para generar contenido para redes sociales creado por influentes en edad universitaria a los que no se les paga y que viajan con Milei y lo graban.Ellos lo han ayudado a construir una enorme presencia en línea así como una intensa base de simpatizantes jóvenes. (La edad legal para votar en Argentina es de 16 años).Luján López Villa, un estudiante de último año de bachillerato de 20 años, proveniente de a pequeña localidad de Chicoana, dijo que Milei tenía un apoyo casi unánime entre sus compañeros de clase, porque era el candidato “cool”, a pesar de las advertencias de sus profesores de que sus planes para dolarizar la economía eran peligrosos.“Nos quieren cambiar el pensamiento para no votarlo”, dijo. “Igual lo seguimos”.No sorprende que los argentinos estén ansiosos por un cambio. Décadas de mala gestión económica, gran parte de ella en manos del movimiento peronista en el poder, del que Massa es parte, han sumido a la Argentina en un agujero financiero.En abril de 2020, al inicio de la pandemia, con un dólar se compraban unos 80 pesos; un día de la semana pasada, ese mismo dólar podía comprar más de 1000 pesos. Esas cifras están basadas en un tipo de cambio no oficial que refleja mejor la visión del mercado sobre el peso, parte de un sistema bizantino de controles cambiarios que el gobierno utiliza para tratar de mantener los dólares estadounidenses en el país.Seguidores de Milei en Salta. Quiere reducir el gobierno, empezando por eliminar el banco central de Argentina.Sarah Pabst para The New York TimesMilei quiere eliminar esas regulaciones cuando sea presidente, en parte haciendo una transición al dólar.Tanto Milei como varios economistas han dicho que dolarizar la economía muy probablemente requiera de decenas de miles de millones de dólares, pero no se sabe con certeza dónde podría Argentina obtener una inversión de esa escala. El país ya tiene problemas para pagar una deuda de 44.000 millones de dólares al Fondo Monetario Internacional.Milei tampoco tendría mucho apoyo en el Congreso para la dolarización, aunque ha afirmado que tiene pensado someter el tema a un referendo nacional.Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, exviceministro de Economía de Argentina durante un gobierno de izquierda, afirmó que si Milei lograra la dolarización, resolvería en gran medida la inflación, pero produciría una serie de otros problemas, incluida la disminución de los salarios reales, una mayor tasa de desempleo y menor flexibilidad para suavizar los efectos de las crisis económicas.Milei también ha expresado su compromiso con implementar cambios a favor del mercado y con una presencia menor del gobierno, y ha prometido: reducir los impuestos; eliminar regulaciones; privatizar las industrias estatales; cambiar la educación pública a un sistema basado en vouchers y la atención de salud pública a un sistema basado en seguros; reducir el número de ministerios federales de 18 a ocho; y recortar el gasto federal en un 15 por ciento del producto interno bruto de Argentina.Estos profundos recortes del gasto requerirían reducciones significativas en las pensiones, la educación y la seguridad pública, dijo Alvarez Agis. “No creo que estén discutiendo los números de manera seria”, dijo.Carteles de campaña en Salta para otro de los candidatos principales en la elección del domingo, Sergio Massa, el ministro de Economía de centroizquierda.Sarah Pabst para The New York TimesTras meses de campañas de los candidatos, este domingo será la prueba que determinará si los votantes están dispuestos a darle una oportunidad a Milei. Podría ganar las elecciones de forma directa con el 45 por ciento de los votos, o con el 40 por ciento si tiene un margen de diferencia de al menos 10 puntos porcentuales. Si ningún candidato obtiene algunas de esas condiciones, la contienda irá a una segunda vuelta el 19 de noviembre, entre los dos candidatos con más votos.Aunque ganó las elecciones primarias, Milei siguió afirmando que hubo fraude electoral y que sus rivales se robaron boletas de su partido de los establecimientos de votación, evitando que los ciudadanos votaran por él. Milei también afirmó que se encontraron boletas de su partido escondidas en una escuela. Su partido no proporcionó ninguna prueba.Milei dijo que su partido había puesto la denuncia ante las autoridades electorales, pero los funcionarios electorales la cuestionaron.“No hubo denuncia ni impugnación, ni que ocurriera robo de boletas de modo sistemático”, declaró la Cámara Nacional Electoral de Argentina a través de un comunicado. “Nos preocupa que se hagan declaraciones así sin acompañarlas con presentaciones judiciales para investigar”.El equipo de campaña de Milei dijo que había reclutado a 100.000 voluntarios para monitorear las mesas el día de las elecciones. Pero en una entrevista televisiva el jueves, Milei afirmó que todavía le preocupaba el robo de votos.Milei afirmó que el presunto fraude en las primarias le había costado al menos varios puntos porcentuales de apoyo. “Hay unos que dicen que son dos puntos y medio, otros dicen que son tres. Y otros que dicen cinco”, dijo. “Sea al número que sea, puede ser determinante”.Natalie Alcoba More

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      Javier Milei, a ‘Mini-Trump,’ Could Be Argentina’s Next President

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      He made his name disparaging people on television. He levels harsh attacks against critics online. He sports an unruly hairdo that has become a meme. And he is now the leader of his country’s far right.Donald J. Trump, and his rise to the American presidency in 2016, shares some striking similarities with the man behind the moment unfolding in Argentina, the nation’s new political sensation, Javier Milei.Mr. Milei, a libertarian economist and television pundit, was once seen as a sideshow in Argentina’s presidential race, not taken seriously by the news media or his opponents. Now — after a brash, outsider campaign based on a promise that he alone can fix the nation’s deep economic woes — he is the favorite to win the election outright on Sunday or head to a runoff next month.Mr. Milei, 52, has already upended the politics of this nation of 46 million. His pledges to eliminate Argentina’s central bank and ditch its currency for the U.S. dollar have dominated the national conversation, while also helping to fuel a further collapse in the value of the Argentine peso.But it has been his bellicose political style that has attracted comparisons with Mr. Trump, as well as widespread concern in Argentina and beyond about the damage his government could inflict on Latin America’s third-largest economy.Mr. Milei has attacked the press and the pope; declared climate change part of “the socialist agenda”; called China, Argentina’s second-largest trade partner, an “assassin”; pledged looser controls on guns; claimed he is the victim of voter fraud; questioned the most recent presidential elections in the United States and Brazil; and suggested that the far-right riots that followed those votes were leftist plots.Mr. Milei surrounded by supporters in Salta, Argentina. His brash, outsider campaign has made him a favorite in Sunday’s election. Sarah Pabst for The New York Times“He is quite clearly a mini-Trump,” said Federico Finchelstein, an Argentine who chairs the history department at the New School in New York and studies the far right around the world.Mr. Milei, Mr. Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s former president, are all leading practitioners of the modern strain of far-right politics, Mr. Finchelstein said, marked by vulgarity, attacks on institutions, discrediting of the news media, distrust of science, a cult of personality and narcissism.“Trump is an icon of this new form of extreme populism,” Mr. Finchelstein said. “And Milei wants to emulate him.”Mr. Milei has embraced comparisons to Mr. Trump, whom he has called “one of the best presidents in the history of the United States.” He has worn “Make Argentina Great Again” hats and, much like Mr. Trump, waged his campaign largely on social media. And in the two months before Sunday’s vote, he granted an interview to one American broadcast personality: the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.Mr. Milei’s campaign declined repeated requests for an interview with The New York Times.Supporters of Mr. Milei in the headquarters of his party in Salta. Mr. Milei’s use of social media has made him especially popular among younger Argentines.Sarah Pabst for The New York TimesWith two master’s degrees in economics, Mr. Milei can sound professorial at times, opining on monetary policy and a strain of libertarianism he follows called anarcho-capitalism.He has called the state “a criminal organization” that collects taxes “at gunpoint.” And he says he is driven by a mission to shrink government and remove it from people’s lives, starting with Argentina’s central bank.His libertarian ideals have also made him less conservative on some social issues. He has said that as long as the state doesn’t have to pay for it, he could support drug legalization, open immigration, sex work, transgender rights, same-sex marriage and selling organs.Abortion, however, he calls “murder” and promises to put it to a referendum in Argentina, where it has been legal since 2020.Mr. Milei surprised pollsters in August when he won Argentina’s open primaries with about 30 percent of the vote. He has since led his two main challengers in the polls: Sergio Massa, Argentina’s center-left economy minister; and Patricia Bullrich, a right-wing former security minister.Mr. Milei has received nearly blanket news coverage during the campaign, both for his radical economic proposals and his eccentric personality. He is a self-proclaimed tantric-sex teacher with five cloned mastiff dogs. His girlfriend is a professional impersonator of one of his political archrivals. And his campaign manager and chief political adviser is his sister.A dollar note with Donald J. Trump’s image in the office of one of Mr. Milei’s advisers. The candidate has praised Mr. Trump’s tenure as president in the United States. Sarah Pabst for The New York TimesLike Mr. Trump, he speaks about the importance of image, telling Mr. Carlson that his past as a semipro soccer goalie and a singer in a Rolling Stones cover band “make for an attractive television product.” Mr. Milei makes nearly the same furrowed-brow, pursed-lip look for every selfie with voters, also calling to mind Mr. Trump.Mr. Milei’s signature look — a leather jacket, an untamable mop of hair and long sideburns — is designed to conjure the comic-book character Wolverine, according to Lilia Lemoine, a professional cosplay performer who is Mr. Milei’s stylist and is running for Congress on his ticket. Because, like Wolverine, she said, “he is an antihero.”The result is a cultlike following. At a recent event in Salta, a city in Argentina’s mountainous northwest, Mr. Milei rode in a truck bed as thousands of voters pushed in for a closer look. Supporters wore messy wigs, passed out fake $100 bills with his face and displayed art of his dogs, four of which are named for conservative economists.“Yes, everyone describes him as crazy, for everything, but who better than a crazy person to move the country forward?” said María Luisa Mamani, 57, a butcher-shop owner. “Because the sane ones didn’t do anything.”Argentines have weathered one of the country’s worst financial crises.Sarah Pabst for The New York TimesMr. Milei appeared briefly but did not speak. Instead, the event was largely a stage for social-media content created by unpaid college-age influencers who travel with Mr. Milei and film him.They have helped him build an enormous online presence and intense youth following. (The legal voting age in Argentina is 16.) Luján López Villa, 20, a high school senior in the small town of Chicoana, said Mr. Milei had near-unanimous support among her classmates, largely because he was the “cool” candidate, despite warnings from teachers that his plans to dollarize the economy are dangerous.“They want to change our minds,” she said. “We’re going to keep following him.”It is no surprise that Argentines are eager for change. Decades of economic mismanagement, much of it in the hands of Mr. Massa’s incumbent Peronist party, have plunged Argentina into a big financial hole.In April 2020, at the start of the pandemic, $1 bought about 80 pesos; one day last week, $1 bought more than 1,000 pesos. Those figures are under an unofficial exchange rate that best reflects the market’s view of the peso, part of a byzantine system of currency controls the government uses to try to keep U.S. dollars in the country.Supporters of Mr. Milei in Salta. He wants to shrink government, starting with getting rid of Argentina’s central bank.Sarah Pabst for The New York TimesMr. Milei wants to discard those rules as president, partly by switching to dollars.Both Mr. Milei and economists have said that dollarizing the economy will most likely require tens of billions of dollars, but it is not clear where Argentina could get such an investment. The country is struggling to pay a $44 billion debt to the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Milei would also not have much congressional support for dollarization, though he has said that he would put the issue to a national referendum.Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, Argentina’s former deputy economy minister under a leftist administration, said that if Mr. Milei could dollarize, it would mostly solve inflation — but produce a host of other problems, including a decrease in real wages, higher unemployment and less flexibility to soften the effects of economic downturns.Mr. Milei has also promised a pro-market, small-government overhaul, including pledges to: lower taxes; slash regulations; privatize state industries; shift public education to a voucher-based system and public health care to insurance based; reduce the number of federal ministries to eight from 18; and cut federal spending by 15 percent of Argentina’s gross domestic product.Such deep spending cuts would require significant reductions to pensions, education and public safety, Mr. Alvarez Agis said. “I don’t think that they are discussing numbers in a serious way,” he said.Campaign signs in Salta for another top candidate in Sunday’s election, Sergio Massa, Argentina’s center-left economy minister.Sarah Pabst for The New York TimesAfter months of campaigning by the candidates, Sunday will test whether voters are ready to take a chance on Mr. Milei. He could win the election outright with 45 percent of the vote, or 40 percent with a margin of at least 10 percentage points. If no candidate reaches any of those thresholds, the race will go to a runoff on Nov. 19 between the top two finishers.Even though Mr. Milei won the primary, he still claimed fraud, saying rivals stole his parties’ ballots from polling stations, preventing citizens from voting for him. Mr. Milei also said his party’s ballots were found in the trash at a school. His party did not provide any evidence.Mr. Milei said his party had complained to election officials, but election officials disputed that.“There was no complaint or challenge, nor was there any systematic ballot theft,” Argentina’s electoral court said in a statement. “We are concerned that such statements are made without accompanying legal filings to investigate.”Mr. Milei’s campaign said it had recruited 100,000 volunteers to monitor polling stations on Election Day. But in a television interview on Thursday, Mr. Milei said he was still worried about stolen votes.He claimed that the alleged fraud in the primaries had cost him at least several percentage points of support. “Some say two and a half points, others say three, and others say five,” he said. “Whatever the number is, it may be decisive.”Natalie Alcoba More

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      in Elections

      En Argentina, Javier Milei asciende y el peso se hunde

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      Javier Milei se ha convertido en el favorito en las elecciones argentinas de este mes al prometer dolarizar la economía. En respuesta, el peso argentino se desploma.Javier Milei sigue siendo solamente un candidato a la presidencia de Argentina. Pero ya está provocando él solo un choque financiero en una de las mayores economías de América Latina.El valor de la moneda argentina está cayendo en picada por las críticas de Milei, un libertario de extrema derecha que se ha convertido en el principal candidato presidencial al prometer sustituir el peso argentino por el dólar estadounidense.El lunes, Milei prosiguió sus ataques contra el peso al desaconsejar a los argentinos que realicen inversiones en esta moneda. “El peso es la moneda que emite el político argentino y por ende no puede valer ni excremento”, dijo en un conocido programa de radio. “Esa basura no sirve ni para abono”.Solo el lunes, la tasa de cambio no oficial del peso, que refleja la valoración de la moneda por parte del mercado e impulsa los precios en Argentina, cayó el 7 por ciento, y luego otro 10 por ciento el martes por la tarde.A esa tasa de cambio no oficial, el martes por la tarde, con un dólar se compraban 1035 pesos, la primera vez que el peso rebasó la barrera de los 1000 pesos frente al dólar. Antes de que Milei ganara las elecciones primarias el 14 de agosto, con un dólar se compraban 660 pesos. En abril de 2020, al comienzo de la pandemia, la cifra era de 80 pesos.La escalada de la crisis llevó al Banco Central de la República Argentina, que Milei ha prometido cerrar, a emitir una declaración extraordinaria el lunes por la tarde: “Argentina mantiene un sistema financiero líquido y solvente” y añadió que respalda los depósitos bancarios argentinos.El martes, las principales asociaciones bancarias del país instaron a los candidatos a “mostrar responsabilidad en sus campañas y declaraciones públicas”.Milei, un economista excéntrico que quiere poner de cabeza el gobierno y el sistema financiero del país, es el favorito en las elecciones presidenciales argentinas del 22 de octubre, aunque las encuestas dan a entender que la contienda podría llegar a una segunda vuelta en noviembre.Su ascenso ha dominado la conversación a nivel nacional y ha acelerado la caída del peso.La mañana después de que Milei sorprendiera al país al quedar primero en las primarias presidenciales de agosto, las presiones del mercado obligaron al gobierno a devaluar el peso un 20 por ciento.Simpatizantes de Milei durante un mitin de campaña el mes pasado en San Martín, ArgentinaLuis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesLos comentarios de Milei están generando “una disparada en la inflación o un eventual problema bancario, que es lo que él está alentando”, dijo Marina Dal Poggetto, economista argentina y exanalista del Banco Central de su país. “Lo que estás viendo es un inicio de una corrida que puede frenar o no. Hay que ver lo que pasa el 22 de octubre. Todavía Milei no ganó”.Milei ha aceptado comparaciones con Donald Trump y Jair Bolsonaro, expresidente de extrema derecha de Brasil, y ha sido noticia por negar el papel del ser humano en el cambio climático, criticar duramente al papa y por sus promesas de prohibir el aborto y legalizar la venta de órganos humanos.Pero la pieza central de su campaña han sido sus lecciones, a veces con tono catedrático, sobre política económica, diseñadas para persuadir a los votantes de que él es el único que puede arreglar la galopante inflación de Argentina.El país se encuentra inmerso en una de sus peores crisis financieras en décadas, con una inflación anual que supera ya el 120 por ciento y precios que cambian a la semana, o incluso más rápido, en muchas tiendas y restaurantes.Con los precios tan altos, los argentinos deben viajar con fajos grandes de billetes, que cada día valen menos. El gobierno argentino emitió este año un billete de 2000 pesos, pero ya vale menos de 2 dólares.Para comprar artículos costosos, como propiedades o automóviles, los argentinos pagan con billetes de 100 dólares estadounidenses. Para conseguir esos billetes, a menudo tienen que comprarlos a cambistas ilegales que ofrecen dólares en el centro de Buenos Aires como si fueran narcotraficantes, porque el gobierno federal, escaso de dólares, ha impuesto límites estrictos a la cantidad de la divisa que la gente puede comprar a la semana.Sergio Massa, ministro de Economía argentino y principal oponente de Milei, lo acusó el lunes de intentar deliberadamente desestabilizar la moneda argentina para causar estragos antes de la votación. “Por un voto más, está timbeando el ahorro de la gente”, dijo Massa, un político de centro-izquierda del partido que ha dirigido el país durante 16 de los últimos 20 años.El martes, Patricia Bullrich, candidata presidencial de centroderecha, culpó tanto a Milei como al gobierno actual en una entrevista durante una visita de campaña. Afirmó que el gobierno estaba tratando de bajar los impuestos sin recortar el gasto, mientras que Milei estaba empeorando la situación.El martes, Milei respondió a las críticas de que sus comentarios estaban agravando la crisis económica con un video que publicó en línea con una recopilación de sus intervenciones en las que compara el peso con excremento a lo largo de años de apariciones televisivas. “Es vergonzonzo el espectáculo que están dando los políticos tratando de obtener rédito político del descalabro económico inventando responsabilidades”, dijo. “Si quieren encontrar a los responsables mírense en el espejo, sinvergüenzas”.En un acto con empresarios celebrado la semana pasada, Milei afirmó que cuanto menor fuera el valor del peso, más fácil sería dolarizar Argentina.Si es elegido presidente, es probable que Milei enfrente grandes dificultades para llevar a cabo sus propuestas. Milei ha dicho que probablemente necesitará una inyección de 40.000 millones de dólares para cambiar la moneda oficial de Argentina, aunque no está claro que pueda conseguir tanto dinero. Argentina ya tiene dificultades para pagar su deuda de 44.000 millones de dólares con el Fondo Monetario Internacional.Sergio Massa, ministro de Economía de Argentina y principal oponente de Milei, lo ha acusado de intentar desestabilizar deliberadamente la moneda argentinaAgustin Marcarian/ReutersMilei también ha dicho que el Congreso argentino tendría que aprobar muchas de sus propuestas, que incluyen profundos recortes del gasto público, la eliminación de muchos impuestos y la privatización de todas las empresas estatales del país.Es probable que su incipiente partido político, La Libertad Avanza, controle una pequeña parte de los escaños del Congreso, lo que lo obligaría a forjar alianzas con otros partidos a los que ha calificado de criminales.Argentina lleva décadas lidiando con una inflación alta, y tuvo un episodio de hiperinflación en la década de 1980, cuando los clientes se apresuraban a comprar artículos antes de que los dependientes que llevaban etiquetadoras de precios pudieran hacer otra ronda de aumentos. Pero la escalada de precios, impulsada por una moneda débil, ha vuelto en los dos últimos años.Algunos de los problemas de Argentina se deben a factores económicos mundiales, como la pandemia y la guerra en Ucrania, pero en gran parte, según los economistas, se deben a que el gobierno ha gastado más de la cuenta para pagar universidades, salud, energía y transporte público gratuitos o muy subvencionados. Para financiar todo eso, Argentina ha impreso a menudo más pesos.El resultado ha sido una creciente falta de confianza en la moneda, que ha obligado al gobierno a crear más de una decena de tasas de cambio distintas para el peso, porque su propia tasa de cambio oficial ya no refleja la valoración del mercado.Las nuevas tasas incluyen una para los turistas, otra para los exportadores de soja y otra para los argentinos que viajaban a Catar para ver a su selección nacional de fútbol ganar el Mundial de 2022. El llamado Dólar Blue es la tasa paralela más importante —fijada por un pequeño grupo de empresas financieras y que aparece en vivo en los noticieros de televisión— y es la forma en que la mayoría de los argentinos transfiere sus pesos a dólares en el mercado clandestino.El martes, buscando apaciguar algunos temores del mercado, el gobierno consolidó varias de esas tasas en una nueva que al menos un contador denominó Dólar Elecciones.Natalie Alcoba More

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      In Argentina, a Far-Right Candidate Rises and the Peso Plunges

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      Javier Milei has become the favorite in Argentina’s election this month by pledging to dollarize the economy. In response, the Argentine peso is crashing.Javier Milei is still just a candidate to be president of Argentina. But he is already single-handedly delivering one of Latin America’s biggest economies a financial shock.The value of Argentina’s currency is plummeting under criticism by Mr. Milei, a hard-right libertarian who has become the leading presidential candidate by promising to replace the Argentine peso with the U.S. dollar.On Monday, Mr. Milei continued his attacks on the peso by discouraging Argentines from holding any investments in the currency. “The peso is the currency issued by the Argentine politician and therefore is worth less than excrement,” he said on a popular radio show. “That trash is not even good as manure.”The peso’s unofficial rate, which reflects the market’s valuation of the currency and drives prices in Argentina, fell nearly 7 percent on Monday alone, reducing its value by about 15 percent over a week.At that unofficial rate, $1 bought 945 pesos as of Tuesday morning. Before Mr. Milei won a primary election on Aug. 14, $1 bought 660 pesos. In April 2020, at the start of the pandemic, the figure was 80 pesos.The escalating crisis prompted Argentina’s Central Bank, which Mr. Milei has promised to shutter, to issue an extraordinary statement on Monday afternoon that “Argentina maintains a liquid and solvent financial system” and that it backs Argentine bank deposits.Mr. Milei, an eccentric economist who wants to upend the country’s government and financial system, is the front-runner in Argentina’s presidential election on Oct. 22, though the race, polls suggest, could still go to a November runoff.His ascent has dominated the national conversation and accelerated the peso’s decline.The morning after Mr. Milei surprised the nation by finishing first in presidential primaries in August, market pressures forced the government to devalue the peso by 20 percent.Supporters of Mr. Milei during a campaign rally last month in San Martín, Argentina.Luis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Milei’s comments are causing “a spike in inflation or an eventual banking problem, which is what he is encouraging,” said Marina Dal Poggetto, an Argentine economist and former analyst at Argentina’s Central Bank. “What you are seeing is the beginning of a run that may or may not stop. We have to see what happens on October 22. Milei still hasn’t won.”Mr. Milei has embraced comparisons to Donald J. Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s former far-right president, and has made headlines for his denials of the role of humans in climate change, his harsh criticisms of the pope and his aims to ban abortion and legalize sales of human organs.But the centerpiece of his campaign has been his sometimes professorial lectures on economic policy designed to persuade voters that he alone can fix Argentina’s soaring inflation.The country is in the midst of one of its worst financial crises in decades, with annual inflation now topping 120 percent and prices at many stores and restaurants changing weekly, if not faster.Sergio Massa, Argentina’s finance minister and Mr. Milei’s principal opponent, accused Mr. Milei on Monday of deliberately trying to destabilize Argentina’s currency to wreak havoc ahead of the vote. “In order to gain one more vote, he is gouging people’s savings,” said Mr. Massa, a center-left politician from the party that has led the country for 16 of the past 20 years.At an event with business leaders last week, Mr. Milei said that the lower the value of the peso, the easier it would be to dollarize Argentina.If elected president, Mr. Milei is likely to face major challenges in accomplishing his proposals. Mr. Milei has said that he will likely need a $40 billion infusion of dollars to switch Argentina’s official currency, though it is unclear he would get that much money. Argentina is already struggling to pay its $44 billion debt to the International Monetary Fund.Sergio Massa, Argentina’s finance minister and Mr. Milei’s principal opponent, has accused Mr. Milei of deliberately trying to destabilize Argentina’s currency.Agustin Marcarian/ReutersMr. Milei has also said that Argentina’s Congress would have to approve many of his proposals, which include deep cuts to government spending, the elimination of many taxes and privatizing all of the nation’s state companies.His nascent Liberty Advances political party would likely control a small share of the seats in Congress, forcing him to forge alliances with other parties that he has labeled criminal.Argentina has struggled with high inflation for decades, including a bout of hyperinflation in the 1980s when customers were rushing to buy items before clerks wielding price guns could make another round of increases. But spiking prices, driven by the weak currency, have roared back over the past two years.Some of Argentina’s problems have been driven by global economic factors, like the pandemic and the Ukraine war, but much of it, economists say, is because the government has overspent to pay for free or deeply subsidized universities, health care, energy and public transportation. To finance all that, Argentina has often printed more pesos.The result has been an increasing lack of confidence in the currency, which has forced the government to create more than a dozen separate exchange rates for the peso, because its own official rate no longer reflects the market’s valuation.The new rates include one for tourists, one for soybean exporters and one for Argentines who were traveling to Qatar to watch their national football team win the 2022 World Cup. The so-called Blue Dollar is the most important parallel rate — set by a small group of financial companies and listed live on television news programs — and is how most Argentines transfer their pesos to dollars on the underground market.On Tuesday, seeking to assuage some market fears, the government consolidated several of those rates into a new rate that at least one accountant called the Election Dollar.Natalie Alcoba More

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      In Argentina, the U.S. Dollar Could Soon Become King

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      Americans complain that inflation has eroded the value of their money, but the U.S. dollar looks lovely to the people of Argentina, where consumer prices rose 124 percent in August from a year earlier. The threat of hyperinflation has become a central issue in the presidential election on Oct. 22, which The Times has described as “a new test of the strength of the far right around the world.” The leading candidate in the race, which could go to a November runoff, is a radical libertarian who promises to bring rising prices under control by getting rid of the peso and fully dollarizing the Argentine economy.Buena idea, o mala?I’ll get to the pros and cons of dollarization in a minute, but first a few words on why Argentines would even consider such a drastic step. Argentina is blessed with abundant natural resources. Early in the 20th century, it was richer than Germany or France. “Until the 1930s, the French used the phrase ‘riche comme un Argentin’ to describe the foolishly rich,” the economists Edward L. Glaeser, Rafael Di Tella and Lucas Llach wrote in the Latin American Economic Review in 2018.But Argentina’s economy has been stunted by disastrous economic policies and chronic political instability. There were periods of military rule, hyperinflation, defaults on external debt, protectionism and under-industrialization. Argentina has been a democracy since 1983 but successive governments, whether left- or right-leaning, haven’t managed to match neighbors such as Chile, Uruguay and Brazil in bringing down inflation and stabilizing finances.That record of failure is written on the currency. Since 1970, Argentina has burned through several currencies: the peso ley, the peso argentino, the austral and now the peso convertible. Today there is no single exchange rate with the dollar that all residents can use. As colorfully explained recently in The Buenos Aires Herald, there is the official, or “wholesale,” exchange rate, for international trade; the savers’ exchange rate, which is supposedly for savers but is not widely accessible; and the “blue” dollar, which is essentially the black-market rate. Foreign tourists can buy pesos at yet another rate, the M.E.P., short for Mercado Electrónico de Pagos. There are even temporary exchange rates, such as the Vaca Muerta rate, which is named after where it was announced last month (not because it’s for buying or selling dead cows).Javier Milei, who leads the polls in the presidential race, wants to chuck the whole rickety system, abolish the central bank and adopt the U.S. dollar, as three smaller Latin American countries — Ecuador, El Salvador and Panama — have already done.Milei, it’s important to say, has extreme and I would argue insupportable stands on a number of issues. He wants to drastically cut taxes and spending, as The Times wrote, “including by charging people to use the public health care system; closing or privatizing all state-owned enterprises; and eliminating the health, education and environment ministries.” He is an economist and a member of the legislature who has large dogs named Milton Friedman, Robert Lucas and Murray Rothbard.But let’s separate the message from the messenger and look at the dollarization proposal on its merits. The biggest plus is that it would most likely get rid of Argentina’s high inflation overnight. The money available for spending inside Argentina would be only the dollars that the country already has in reserves or manages to acquire by, say, running trade surpluses with the United States or borrowing. The general price level can’t rise if there is no increase in the supply of dollars, unless the velocity of circulation increases. As Milton Friedman (the economist, not the dog) once said, “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”Dollarizing the economy is like locking oneself in handcuffs and then throwing away the key. It’s an act of desperation when nothing else works.And like most acts of desperation, dollarization has big drawbacks. By switching to dollars, Argentina would effectively adopt the monetary policy of the United States, thus losing the ability to raise or lower interest rates to suit local conditions. It would lose the profit known as seigniorage that comes from printing money. And dollarization wouldn’t solve the structural problems that have caused high inflation, such as government overspending, as Guillermo Ortiz, a former governor of Mexico’s central bank, told reporters in September.This week I interviewed Iván Werning, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who grew up in Argentina and earned his bachelor’s and master’s degrees there before getting a doctorate at the University of Chicago. With two graduate students who are fellow Argentines, he has written two recent papers about dollarization, which he calls a “dangerous delusion,” and has wrestled with opponents on X, formerly Twitter.Werning isn’t persuaded that dollarization really would tie the government’s hands. In an email to me, he pointed out that Argentina tried once before to link to the dollar, through currency board “convertibility,” but abandoned the program in 2002. “Argentina could reissue the peso in short order, in a manner similar to how its provinces have issued government pesos in the past to pay for bills,” he wrote. Ecuador, he said, has found “creative accounting ways” to loosen the constraint of its dollarization, such as having the central bank finance the treasury.The Argentine government doesn’t have enough dollars to replace all of its pesos at current exchange rates, even at the unofficial “blue” rate, Werning told me by phone. There are rich people with lots of dollars squirreled away abroad, but that doesn’t help the ordinary Argentine, he said. So in his view, if the conversion were done today, there could be an extreme shortage of money in the economy, which would most likely cause a deep recession because prices and wages would not adjust smoothly to the dollar scarcity. Postponing the conversion could make matters worse, by triggering an anticipatory burst of inflation, he added.The problem could be solved if Argentina were able to raise more dollars, but in that case it probably wouldn’t need to dollarize in the first place, he said.Understandably frustrated by years of dysfunction, the Argentine people are looking for a quick fix for inflation, Werning told me. But the quick fix would have bad consequences in the long term, he said. He prefers more conventional solutions such as bringing government budgets closer into balance. On that score, he is slightly hopeful.“Today there’s a lot more consensus” about the need to reduce spending, Werning said. The message is coming not just from Milei, the extreme libertarian, but also from Patricia Bullrich, a center-right candidate who served in the cabinet of Mauricio Macri. Even Sergio Massa, a candidate who is the economy minister in the current, center-left government of Albert Fernandez, has talked about cutting spending, although “his actions do not match his words,” Werning said. Whether any of the candidates would be as resolute in office, when anti-austerity protests begin, is another question. But Werning said, “If ever there was a chance” for righting Argentina’s finances, “it might be now.”The Readers WriteDonald Trump and his lawyers persist in re-arguing points and generally annoying the judge because they hope to elicit an intemperate response that could be read as bias. I am a trial lawyer, and I have seen this happen. Because this is a bench trial, a mistrial would take a real circus breaking out. But they may be able to argue on appeal that Trump was denied a fair trial.James M. MillerSarasota, Fla.Your opinion on the “fix” for our budget problem is spot on, but lawmakers’ concern about job security exceeds their willingness to do the best job for the country. And so we languish with incidental actions that appear helpful but don’t make the real change we need.Kathy CrosbyGrand Rapids, Mich.Quote of the Day“America is ungovernable; those who have served the revolution have plowed the sea.”— Simón Bolívar, South American revolutionary leader, in 1830, as quoted by Sheldon Liss and Peggy Liss in “Man, State, and Society in Latin American History” (1972) More

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      Turkey’s Next President Will Win an Economy in Peril

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      A surge in government spending before the election this month and pressure on the country’s currency could hit the economy in coming months, experts say.Inflation in Turkey remains stubborn at 44 percent. Consumers have watched their paychecks buy less and less food as the months tick by. And now, government largess and efforts to prop up the currency are threatening economic growth and could push the country into recession.It’s a tough challenge for whoever wins the runoff election for the presidency on Sunday. And it’s an especially complicated one if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains in power because his policies, including some aimed at securing his re-election, have exacerbated the problems.“The relatively strong economy of the past several quarters has been the product of unsustainable policies, so there will most likely be a contraction or recession,” said Brad W. Setser, an expert in global trade and finance at the Council on Foreign Relations.“Working Turks will feel poorer when the lira falls in value,” he said of the local currency. “People will find it harder to find a job and harder to get a salary that covers the cost of living.”In the run-up to the election, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rolled out a range of policies aimed at blunting the immediate effects of inflation on voters. Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesEconomic turmoil in Turkey, one of the world’s 20 largest economies, could echo internationally because of the country’s broad network of global trade ties. It will also likely dominate the immediate agenda of whichever candidate prevails in the runoff election on May 28.During Mr. Erdogan’s first 10 years in power, he oversaw dramatic economic growth that transformed Turkish cities and lifted millions of people out of poverty. But some of those gains have been eroded in recent years. The national currency has lost 80 percent of its value against the dollar since 2018. And annual inflation, which reached more than 80 percent at its peak last year, has come down but was still 44 percent last month, leaving many feeling poorer.While economic orthodoxy usually calls for raising interest rates to combat inflation, Mr. Erdogan has insisted on doing the opposite, repeatedly reducing them, which economists say has exacerbated the problem.During his election campaign, Mr. Erdogan showed no intention of changing his policies, doubling down on his belief that low interest rates would help the economy grow by providing cheap credit to increase Turkish manufacturing and exports.“We will work relentlessly until we make Turkey one of the 10 largest economies in the world,” he said at an election rally this month. “If today there is a reality in Turkey that does not allow its pensioners, workers and civil servants to be crushed under inflation, we succeeded by standing back to back with you.”In other rallies, he vowed to continue lowering interest rates and to bring down inflation.“You will see as the interest rates go down, so will inflation” he told supporters in Istanbul in April.In the run-up to the election, with the cost-of-living crisis on many voters’ minds, Mr. Erdogan launched a range of expensive policies aimed at blunting the immediate effects of inflation on voters. He repeatedly raised the minimum wage, increased civil servant salaries and changed regulations to allow millions of Turks to receive early government pensions. All of those commitments must be honored by whomever wins the election, meaning greater government spending into the future.Exacerbating the economic stress is the vast damage caused by the powerful earthquakes that destroyed large parts of southern Turkey in February. In March, a government assessment put the damage at $103 billion, or about 9 percent of this year’s gross domestic product.Rubble of buildings destroyed in Kahramanmaras, Turkey, by the earthquakes that struck in March.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesAt the same time, the government has heavily intervened to slow the decline of the Turkish lira, mostly by selling foreign currency reserves. During one week in early May, the reserves declined by $7.6 billion to $60.8 billion, according to central bank data, the largest such decline in more than two decades.To address that, Mr. Erdogan has reached agreements with countries including Qatar, Russia and Saudi Arabia that would help shore up reserves in Turkey’s central bank. Saudi Arabia announced a $5 billion deposit in March, and Russia agreed to delay at least some of Turkey’s payment for natural gas imports until after the election.The terms of most of these agreements have not been made public, but economists said they were part of a short-term strategy by Mr. Erdogan more focused on winning the election than on ensuring the country’s long-term financial health.Should Mr. Erdogan win, as many analysts expect he will, few expect him to dramatically change course.“I don’t think the current government has a plan to fix this because they don’t admit that these problems are due to policy mistakes,” said Selva Demiralp, a professor of economics at Koc University in Istanbul. “I don’t see a way out for the current government.”A vegetable market in Kayseri, Turkey. Inflation has left many Turkish people feeling poorer.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesMr. Erdogan came out ahead in the first round of elections on May 14 with 49.2 percent of the vote but fell short of the majority needed to win outright. The main opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, won 45 percent, and a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, won 5.2 percent. Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Kilicdaroglu will compete in the runoff.Most analysts give Mr. Erdogan an edge because of his strong showing in the first round and the likelihood that he will inherit significant votes from Mr. Ogan, who formally endorsed Mr. Erdogan on Monday. Mr. Erdogan’s political party and its allies also maintained their majority in Parliament, allowing Mr. Erdogan to argue that voters should choose him to avoid a divided government.If Mr. Erdogan sticks to the status quo, economists expect the currency to sink further, the government to impose restrictions on foreign-currency withdrawals and the state to run short of foreign currency to pay its bills.In its campaign, the political opposition promised to follow more orthodox economic policies, including raising interest rates to bring down inflation and restoring the independence of the central bank, whose policies are widely believed to be overseen by Mr. Erdogan himself.A market in Istanbul. Whichever candidate wins Turkey’s runoff election will face a significant economic crisis.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesBut if he becomes president, Mr. Kilicdaroglu will inherit a financial situation that will require immediate attention, economic advisers to opposition parties have said.In addition to honoring the additional spending added by Mr. Erdogan in recent months, a new administration would need to respect his financial arrangements with other countries, the terms of many of which are not clear.“What are the political terms? What are the financial terms?” said Kerim Rota, who is in charge of economic policy for Gelecek Party, a member of the opposition coalition. “Unfortunately, none of those numbers are reflected in the Turkish statistics.”If it came to power, the opposition would need both short- and medium-term plans to bolster the government’s finances and restore the confidence of investors, he said. But restricting its ability to maneuver would be the majority in parliament led by Mr. Erdogan’s party and its allies.“We need a very credible medium-term program, but the question is if the majority of the parliament is on the A.K.P. side, how can you manage a five-year program?” he said, using another name for Mr. Erdogan’s party.Gulsin Harman More