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    A Tidal Wave of Change Is Headed for the U.S. Economy

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    When the Covid pandemic hit, factories in China shut down and global shipping traffic slowed. Within a matter of a few weeks, products began disappearing from U.S. store shelves and American firms that depend on foreign materials were going out of business.A similar trend is beginning to play out, but this time the catalyst is President Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to a minimum of 145 percent, an amount so steep that much of the trade between the United States and China has ground to a halt. Fewer massive container ships have been plying the ocean between Chinese and American ports, and in the coming weeks, far fewer Chinese goods will arrive on American shores.While high tariffs on Chinese products have been in place since early April, the availability of Chinese products and the price that consumers pay for them has not changed that much. But some companies are now starting to raise their prices. And experts say that the effects will become more and more obvious in the coming weeks, as a tidal wave of change stemming from canceled orders in Chinese factories works its way around the world to the United States.The number of massive container ships carrying metal boxes of toys, furniture and other products departing China for the United States has plummeted by about a third this month.The reason consumers haven’t felt many of the effects yet is because it takes 20 to 40 days for a container ship to travel across the Pacific Ocean. It then takes another one to 10 days for Chinese goods to make their way by train or truck to various cities around the country, economists at Apollo Global Management wrote in a recent report. That means that the higher tariffs on China that went into effect at the beginning of April are just starting to result in a drop in the number of ships arriving at American ports, a trend that should intensify.By late May or early June, consumers could start to see some empty shelves, and layoffs could occur for retailers and logistics industries. The major effects on the U.S. economy of shutting down trade with China will start to become apparent in the summer of 2025, when the United States might slip into a recession, said Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      ‘So Eager to Get Back’: Travelers Pour Into a Reopened Heathrow

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      Information boards showed that most flights would leave on time, but the lines at ticketing counters signaled that many travelers were in for more delays.Throngs of passengers anxious to get on their way surged into Heathrow Airport in London on Saturday, a day after a power blackout closed the airport and forced thousands to delay their trips.As information boards flickered back to life, an army of extra airport staff members, dressed in purple, sprang into action to help people as they walked through the terminal doors.Ganesh Suresh, a 25-year-old student who was trying to get home to Bangalore, India, was among those who secured a coveted seat on a Saturday flight. After his Air India flight was canceled, his parents booked new tickets on Virgin Atlantic, while he spent the night at a friend’s place in Birmingham, England.“I was so eager to get back,” Mr. Suresh said. He sheepishly admitted to yelling at his parents in frustration during the height of the shutdown chaos. “I might apologize to them when I get back.”Travelers, diverted or rebooked, arrived early, with trains and other transport routes to the airport reopened. A day earlier, the airport’s roads were empty except for police cars.A Heathrow representative said on Saturday that the airport was “open and fully operational,” adding that the extra flights on the day’s schedule could accommodate 10,000 extra passengers. At the airport, information boards showed that most flights would leave on time, but the snaking lines at ticketing counters signaled that many travelers were in for more frustrating delays.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Chanel Takes Its Métiers d’Art Show to China, for 1,100 Guests.

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      The house goes all out for its V.I.C.s.What do you do if you are a fashion house possessed of the most coveted open designer job in the business, the subject of manic rumors and speculation, with the world watching every move you make for a hint of announcements to come?If you are Chanel, you hold the first mega-show of a European luxury brand in Hangzhou, China, invite about 1,100 guests, including Tilda Swinton, Lupita Nyong’o, Liu Wen and about 600 local V.I.C.s — very important clients — and get on with business as usual.Meaning, in this case, you offer a bit of glamorous outreach to a customer segment that, after years of explosive growth, has been very publicly slowing down, sending the fortunes of many global fashion brands dropping. Chanel, the second largest luxury brand in the world, with 2023 revenues of almost $20 billion, has not been immune.And if the V.I.C.s — which is to say, clients who spend at least $20,000, and possibly up to $500,000, a year with the company — won’t go to the brand, the brand will go to them.“To come to China after Covid was one of our top priorities,” said Bruno Pavlovsky, Chanel’s president for fashion. “We started seriously to plan it nine months ago. It’s the right time to focus on our Chinese customers.”After all, he acknowledged: “At the moment, we have less customers in our boutiques. We have less what they call one-timers. But we are still very powerful and very successful with our V.I.C.s. And what we are doing here is trying to create a unique experience and a bond.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Yelloh, Formerly Schwan’s Home Delivery, Closes

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      Yelloh, the frozen food delivery service formerly called Schwan’s Home Delivery, which had once been known for its reach with rural Americans and its direct-to-consumer business model, is closing its doors on Friday after decades of decline.Minnesota-based Yelloh was born on March 18, 1952 when its founder, Marvin Schwan, delivered 14 gallons of ice cream. The service’s popularity exploded over the years and later foods frozen at their peak made it onto the menu. At its peak, the company delivered meals and ice cream across 48 states, but critics and experts said the company became frozen in time, ceding ground to competitors and modernity.The Schwan’s name lives on in frozen foods (Red Baron, Freschetta, and Mrs. Smith’s are among their many brands) — that side of the business was sold to CJ CheilJedan, a South Korean company, in 2019. But on Nov. 8, Yelloh permanently parked its fleet of refrigerated trucks that, with their yellow décor, were once instantly recognizable in small towns across America. Friday’s closure means that about 1,100 people across 13 states will be out of a job.In a statement, the company said it made its decision because of “multiple insurmountable business challenges,” including “economic and market forces, as well as changing consumer lifestyles.”Michael Ziebell, a Yelloh board member who spent 22 years with the company and previously held leadership roles, said the shuttering was devastating, calling it a very hard and very emotional decision.But, he said, it was not sudden.In an interview with The New York Times, Mr. Ziebell said demographic and market issues began plaguing the company in the late 1980s and early ’90s; with fewer people home as drivers came, the relationships between drivers and customers that had been built over decades began to diminish. Then came membership stores like Costco, which could compete on frozen food price and quality, and on top of that regulatory changes added restrictions to their truck operations. It was “the perfect storm,” he said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Victims of Stanford Financial’s Fraud Scheme May Soon Be Paid. Some Already Sold Their Claim.

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      Not having much insight into what may happen next in the case of a fraud orchestrated by Robert Allen Stanford, many of the victims sold the rights to any future payout.It’s been 15 years since Thomas Swingle first learned that about $1 million of his family’s savings had gone up in smoke, after the financier Robert Allen Stanford was exposed for having sold billions in fraudulent certificates of deposit to investors around the world.The memory of those days is still painful.“It was literally a life-changing event,” Mr. Swingle, 72, said of the $7 billion scheme that unraveled in early 2009. “It is like someone hit you in the chest with a sledgehammer.”Now, victims of Mr. Stanford’s company, Stanford Financial, are on the verge of recouping some of their losses, but Mr. Swingle and his wife, Cindy Finch, have to contend with another decision they made: In 2021, they agreed to sell their claim to any future settlement to an investment fund for around $60,000.That means they won’t get a penny of the funds that are about to be disbursed. Instead, it’ll all go to the claim buyer.It’s a decision fraud victims have to agonize over in the wake of a big financial scam: Large investors offer them cash in exchange for the rights to any future payment. Many small investors who don’t have much insight into what might happen next may feel they don’t have a choice but to settle for a quick lump sum, rather than wait for a future payment that may never come.When Mr. Swingle and Ms. Finch sold their claim, he said, it appeared Stanford’s defrauded customers were unlikely to get anything back at all. Had the couple held on to the rights, they might be able to claim as much as $350,000.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Disney and DirecTV Reach Deal, Ending ESPN Blackout

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      The agreement ends a two-week dispute that had prevented many of DirecTV’s 11 million customers from watching programs like Monday Night Football.Disney and DirecTV said on Saturday that they had reached an agreement that will allow channels like ESPN and ABC to return to the satellite TV service.The deal ends a two-week blackout that prevented many of DirecTV’s 11 million customers from viewing programs like Monday Night Football and the U.S. Open tennis tournament as the two sides haggled over terms of a new distribution agreement.The pact was struck in time to avoid alienating viewers who wanted to watch college football on ESPN and the Emmys, which will air on Sunday on Disney’s ABC broadcast network.“DirecTV and Disney have a longstanding history of connecting consumers to the best entertainment,” the companies said in a joint statement. “And this agreement furthers that commitment by recognizing both the tremendous value of Disney’s content and the evolving preferences of DirecTV’s customers.”One of the big sticking points in negotiations over the last week was whether Disney — which spends lavishly on shows for the Disney+ streaming service — could continue to charge DirecTV high rates for traditional TV content. DirecTV argued that Disney was shortchanging its traditional TV customers by expecting the same fees for what is effectively less content.Under the terms of the new agreement, Disney’s streaming services, including Disney+, will be offered to DirecTV customers in select packages. That compromise has now become common in cable deals, with similar agreements reached by the cable giant Charter with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery.The dispute between DirecTV and Disney underscored the harsh economic realities experienced by satellite TV networks, which do not have products like broadband internet that make their services harder to abandon.The deal will also allow DirecTV customers to watch the Disney Channel, Freeform, the FX networks and the National Geographic channels. Though the contract is still being finalized, service was restored on Saturday morning to DirecTV customers.DirecTV’s agreement with Disney comes amid reports that the company is working on a much larger deal that would transform the company. Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that DirecTV is negotiating a merger with Dish, another TV provider, in a deal that would create a satellite TV giant. More

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      New Real Estate Rules Sow Confusion, at Least in Short Term

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      Changes in how real estate commissions are advertised and paid went into effect this weekend. Buyers and even some agents aren’t sure what they mean.An hour before the open house on Saturday afternoon, a real estate agent paced across the dark bamboo floors, straightening the throw blanket, fluffing the pillows and lighting a scented candle.The last-minute sprucing at the $1.2 million condo in Jersey City, N.J., was exactly what agents have done at open houses for decades before this weekend.The difference now is the information they are required to disclose and where they can disclose it when it comes to real estate commissions — a charge that had hovered between 5 to 6 percent of the sales price, and until now was typically paid by the seller and split between the seller’s agent and the buyer’s agent.The changes that went into effect this weekend decouple the two commissions: Sellers are no longer expected to pay buyers’ commissions, though they can still choose to do so, and the proposed commission split can no longer be advertised on the online database commonly used to sell homes, the M.L.S.The new rules went into effect across the United States as part of a $418 million settlement agreement with the National Association of Realtors, a powerful real estate trade group that was successfully sued by a group of homeowners in Missouri who argued that the longtime practice requiring them to pay agents’ commissions led to inflated fees. Brokerages have spent months trying to educate agents and consumers on the looming changes.But when they were implemented nationwide this Saturday, buyers remained befuddled.Sarthak Jain, left, and his wife, Aditi Maheshwari, touring a duplex in Jersey City alongside their Realtor.Andres Kudacki for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Is Your Flight Delayed by the Tech Outage? Here’s What You Need to Know.

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      While service is slowly recovering, flights have been delayed and canceled worldwide. Here’s information on the most affected airlines and airports, passengers’ rights and how to reach airline customer service.Travel plans across the world were thrown into disarray on Friday, as a global technology outage disrupted businesses and services — including air travel — leaving thousands of flights canceled or delayed across the United States and beyond.While service was slowly recovering by midmorning Eastern time, the ripple effect was still snarling travel plans as delayed and canceled flights created a buildup of passengers waiting at airports, and some planes and crews out of position.“The anxiety is getting up a little,” said Adonis Ajayi, 35, at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on Friday morning. Mr. Ajayi was on his way to Key West, Fla., for a long weekend and said he had been checking social media constantly for flight updates — his flight had been delayed for nearly three hours. “I’ve never seen anything of this scale.”The outage was caused by a flawed update from the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, whose software is used globally by scores of industries to protect Microsoft systems. Messages posted on social media by travelers worldwide showed flights grounded, some terminal monitors down and crowds of stranded passengers waiting at airport gates and customer service desks. Some passengers at one airport in India had to stand in long lines to obtain handwritten boarding passes.Which airports have been hit the worst?In the United States, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International, the world’s busiest airport, appeared to have the most flights affected by the outage on Friday morning, with more than 230 incoming and outgoing flights canceled and more than 370 flights delayed, according to FlightAware, a real-time flight tracker.Many other airports, including hubs in New York, Chicago and Charlotte, N.C., also appeared to experience significant disruption.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      AT&T Offers $5 Credit After Widespread Service Outage

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      Thousands of customers lost service on Thursday when the telecommunications company ran into problems while trying to expand its network, the company’s chief executive said.AT&T will offer a $5 credit to customers affected by a widespread outage on Thursday that was caused by technical issues the company encountered while trying to expand its network, its chief executive said on Sunday.The outage, which started around 3:30 a.m. Eastern time, temporarily cut off connections for users across the United States.Some of the affected cities included Atlanta, Los Angeles and New York, according to Downdetector.com, which tracks user reports of telecommunication and internet disruptions.At its peak, the site had received about 70,000 reports of disrupted service for AT&T. Service was fully restored after about seven hours.“No matter the timing, one thing is clear — we let down many of our customers, including many of you and your families,” the chief executive of AT&T, John T. Stankey, wrote in a letter dated Sunday. “For that, we apologize.”In an effort to “make it right” AT&T is offering customers a $5 credit on their AT&T Wireless account, according to the company’s website.“For the portion of consumer and small business customers most impacted by the outage, we are automatically applying an account credit to compensate them for the inconvenience they experienced,” the company said.It will take one to two billing cycles for the credit to appear, depending on when a customer’s bill closes, the company said.Prepaid customers will have options available if they were affected, Mr. Stankey wrote, but did not specifically identify those options.AT&T also said it was “working closely” with Mid-Market and Enterprise customers, which are internet plans for businesses, to address their concerns.It was not immediately clear how much the credits would amount to in lost revenue. A company representative could not be reached on Sunday.In a statement, AT&T emphasized that the outage wasn’t caused by a cyberattack.“Our initial review of the cause of Thursday’s outage indicates it was due to the application and execution of an incorrect process used while working to expand our network,” Mr. Stankey wrote in his letter.The credit is meant to refund customers for the day that the service was lost, he wrote.“I believe that crediting those customers for essentially a full day of service is the right thing to do,” Mr. Stankey wrote. More