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      Brace Yourself. Trump’s Trade War With China Will Get Even Uglier.

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      Voters elected Donald Trump in part because they wanted a fighter. But increasingly it seems that in international trade, he’s good at shaking his fist for the cameras but utterly outclassed when he steps into the boxing ring.Indeed, Trump may be more dangerous to his own side of a trade war than to the other guy.Even after Trump’s climb-down — declaring a 90-day pause on many of the “Liberation Day” levies that sent the stock market reeling — America’s tariff rates remain the highest in more than 90 years. They amount to an enormous tax hike on consumers, with researchers previously estimating that they might add something like $1,700 in costs per year to a middle-income American family. They’re a reason many economists fear that the United States is slipping into a recession.The most heated trade war is with China, and it’s there that I fear Trump has particularly miscalculated. He seems to be waiting for President Xi Jinping to cry uncle and demand relief, but that’s unlikely; instead, it may be the United States that will be most desperate to end the trade conflict.China does have serious internal economic challenges, including widespread underemployment and a deflationary loop with no end in sight. The trade war could cost China millions of jobs, and that raises some risks of political instability.Yet it’s also true that China has prepared for this trade war. I’m guessing some Chinese factories are already printing “Made in Vietnam” labels and preparing to ship goods through third countries. And China will fight with weapons that go far beyond tariffs.China buys agricultural products and airplanes from America, and it can almost certainly get what it needs elsewhere. But where is the United States going to get rare-earth minerals, essential for American industry and the military-industrial base?We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      European Central Bank Cuts Rates Amid ‘Exceptional’ Tariff Uncertainty

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      Policymakers lowered rates a quarter point and said that the region’s growth outlook had “deteriorated” because of rising trade tensions.The European Central Bank cut interest rates on Thursday as policymakers grappled with heightened economic uncertainty, particularly from President Trump’s chaotic trade policies, that is expected to weaken the region’s economy.Policymakers, who set rates for the 20 countries that use the euro, lowered their key rate a quarter point to 2.25 percent. It was the seventh consecutive cut since June as the economic outlook has darkened and inflation has slowed.The region faces the dual challenges of tariffs on goods sent to the United States and diminished demand for exports to other countries as trade uncertainty weighs on the global economy. Europe’s largest economy, Germany, is heavily oriented toward exports.“The economic outlook is clouded by exceptional uncertainty,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the central bank, said on Thursday at a news conference in Frankfurt, adding that all members of the bank’s Governing Council unanimously agreed to the rate cut.Mr. Trump has raised tariffs on nearly all imports to the United States from most countries to 10 percent, increasing the specter of a global trade war. There are also higher tariffs on certain goods like cars and steel, while a trade war with China has pushed import levies between each country above 100 percent.There is still the threat that higher tariffs will once again be imposed on dozens of countries after Mr. Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs expires. The Trump administration is negotiating with countries, but the European Union could face a 20 percent tariff again.

      Source: European Central BankBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      IMF Warns Trump Tariffs Will Weaken Economy and Increase Inflation

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      Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned in a speech that protectionism erodes productivity.The world economy is expected to grow slower this year and experience higher inflation than previously anticipated, according to new forecasts to be released by the International Monetary Fund that will show the global fallout of the U.S. trade war.The growth projections, to be released early next week, will offer the clearest indication to date of the damage that President Trump’s economic policies are having on global output. Since taking office in January, Mr. Trump has imposed a wide range of tariffs on most of America’s trading partners, while ratcheting levies even higher on imports from China, Canada and Mexico.“Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession,” Kristalina Georgieva, the I.M.F. managing director, said on Thursday in a speech ahead of the spring meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank. “We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”Ms. Georgieva’s comments added to a growing chorus of top economic officials, including the heads of the Federal Reserve and the World Bank, who have sounded alarms this week about the potential harm that Mr. Trump’s policies could cause.The European Central Bank on Thursday lowered interest rates, saying that “the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.” Central bankers, finance ministers and other policymakers will gather in Washington next week as they continue to grapple with how to respond.Ms. Georgieva was careful in her criticism of the Trump administration’s policies, which have created widespread uncertainty for businesses and are disrupting international supply chains. But she made clear her concerns about the costs of protectionism.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      W.T.O. Projects Sharp Pullback in Global Trade, Citing Trump’s Tariffs

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      The World Trade Organization forecast on Wednesday that President Trump’s trade policies would shave nearly three percentage points off the volume of global trade in goods this year, as tariffs raise the price of U.S. imports, invite retaliation and slow economic activity.At the start of the year, the W.T.O. expected goods trading to continue growing roughly in line with the global economy, expanding by 2.7 percent. Now it expects it to contract by 0.2 percent instead. That’s a sharp drop from last year, when goods trade grew by 2.9 percent.Mr. Trump has introduced a suite of tariffs, including a 10 percent tariff on most of the world, a minimum tariff of 145 percent on U.S. imports from China, levies on goods from Canada and Mexico and sector-specific tariffs targeting steel, aluminum and vehicles. The Trump administration says this will help bring manufacturing back to the United States and boost the economy, though many economists have predicted the tariffs will instead be a drag on economic activity.The W.T.O., a Geneva-based group that monitors patterns in global trade and coordinates trade negotiations and disputes among its members, said that the estimates were based on the tariff situation as of Monday, and that trade could shrink further “if the situation deteriorates.”The tariffs will have the biggest impact on trade in North America, the group said, where it expects exports will plummet 12.6 percent and imports will drop 9.6 percent in 2025. Asia will be the next most affected, but Asia and Europe will still post modest growth in both exports and imports, the group forecasts.The group said global trade was particularly at risk from the potential return of Mr. Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs.” The president paused those tariffs last week for 90 days, and the Trump administration is now trying to negotiate trade deals with individual countries.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Amazon Sellers Struggle with Trump’s Tariff Plans

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      When President Trump announced tariffs this month on goods from all over the world, Jing and Eddie Levine, who sell party supplies on Amazon, were on a flight home to Chicago after visiting suppliers in Asia.Amazon was the center of their life. They met at a conference for Amazon sellers in 2016 and had their first kiss at another Amazon conference two years later. They moved in together and grew their business, Treasures Gifted. When they married in 2022, they threw an Amazon-themed wedding, with guests assigned Amazon product numbers instead of table numbers.The Levines tried to make sense of the news. The giant poster that Mr. Trump pointed to during a Rose Garden ceremony on April 2 showed that China would be hit with large tariffs, but so would every country they had just visited — and almost every country on the planet, for that matter.“Thank God the Wi-Fi on the plane was not bad this time,” Mr. Levine said, “because I would have had a heart attack.”The balloons, plates and decorations that the Levines import are just a speck in the trillions of dollars in goods that swirl around the globe. A week after Mr. Trump announced his so-called reciprocal tariffs, he pulled them back for most countries for at least 90 days, while sending tariffs on China even higher.Countries or major companies may be able to lobby the president for a break, as he seemed to give Apple and other electronics makers over the weekend. But the best the Levines of the world can do is wait for news updates and hope their plans haven’t been shredded by Mr. Trump’s vision for unraveling decades of global trade. And like thousands of other small-business owners who sell online, the Levines are struggling to adapt to an e-commerce system that let them tap into international markets but that is now on the verge of falling apart.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Shein and Temu Will be Hit by Trump’s China Tariffs. Americans Are Worried.

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      The Trump administration’s plan to add steep fees to packages from China will deal a blow to Temu, Shein and some TikTok Shop sellers, worrying American consumers.Tamika Johnson, a 44-year-old in Chicago, posted videos to TikTok this month about her orders from Shein, the Chinese e-commerce giant. She was nervous about potential delivery delays in the face of upcoming tariffs.Her 213,000 followers chimed in as she shared status updates on her purchases of clothing and suitcases, detailing their own plans for last-minute orders and sharing concerns about their shipments.“People are very worried,” Ms. Johnson, who posts to TikTok under the handle @TammyTheBlackPrepper, said in an interview. “I’m trying to stock up on clothes now and the things that I need.”Ms. Johnson is one of many American consumers who have been posting anxiously to TikTok and Reddit about a coming Trump administration-induced change for the Chinese e-commerce companies Shein and Temu, which sell inexpensive items like $8 dresses and $14 wagons. Starting on May 2, the Trump administration is poised to end a trade loophole that enabled the delivery of ultra low-cost goods from Chinese factories straight to Americans’ doorsteps without being subject to duties. That will add steep new fees to packages from Shein and Temu.At least some sellers on TikTok Shop, the popular app’s growing marketplace, and AliExpress, another Chinese e-commerce site, will also take a hit.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      China Girds for Economic Stress of Trump’s Tariffs

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      The economy grew steadily from January through March, but U.S. tariffs pose a risk for China in the coming weeks and months.President Trump’s tariffs have been good for China’s economic growth. At least they were over the first three months of the year, as the country’s factories raced to ship exports ahead of the trade restrictions.China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported on Wednesday that the country’s gross domestic product grew 1.2 percent from the last three months of 2024. If that pace continues, the Chinese economy will expand at an annual rate of 4.9 percent.But whether China can maintain that growth is shrouded in uncertainty.Pinned down by tariffs that threaten to freeze trade with its biggest customer, China’s economy is facing one of its greatest challenges in years.Growth in the early months of this year was propelled by rapidly rising exports and the manufacturing investment and production necessary to support those exports. Sales of electric cars, household appliances, consumer electronics and furniture were also strong because of ever-widening government subsidies for buyers.Then on April 2, Mr. Trump started escalating tariffs, which reached an extraordinary 145 percent for more than half of China’s exports to the United States.Mr. Trump’s first two rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods, 10 percent in February and again in March, had little immediate effect on exports. China’s overall exports in March rose 12.4 percent in dollar terms from a year earlier, as some exporters appeared to rush shipments to docks before tariffs could go even higher.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Hong Kong Suspends Packages to the U.S., Wading Into the Trump Trade War

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      The move comes before President Trump’s planned imposition of new tariffs on small packages sent to the United States from Hong Kong and China.Wading into the trade war, Hong Kong said on Wednesday that its postal service will no longer send packages to the United States.It is the city’s first move in a spiraling tit-for-tat trade war between China and the United States that is reordering global shipping routes.President Trump this month ordered the closure of a loophole that allowed retailers to send clothes and goods from China and Hong Kong, a special administrative region, to the United States without having to pay tariffs. After that change takes effect on May 2, United States Customs and Border agents will begin to collect previously exempted tariffs on shipments worth less $800.Hongkong Post said it would immediately stop accepting surface postal items containing goods to the United States. It said it was taking the action in response to President Trump’s tariffs.“The U.S. is unreasonable, bullying and imposing tariffs abusively,” the postal service said in a statement posted to the Hong Kong government’s website.The postal service said it would contact senders who posted packages with goods that have not yet been shipped, to return the packages and refund their postage.“The public in Hong Kong should be prepared to pay exorbitant and unreasonable fees due to the U.S.’s unreasonable and bullying acts,” it said. More