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O Brasil pode ter finalmente se livrado da loucura de Bolsonaro
SÃO PAULO, Brasil — Quatro anos de loucura chegaram praticamente ao fim. Em um segundo turno tenso, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva prevaleceu sobre o presidente Jair Bolsonaro, com 50,9 por cento dos votos. Exceto por uma reviravolta dramática — o temível golpe que há meses paira sobre o país, por exemplo — Lula se tornará, em 1 de janeiro, o presidente do Brasil.Não foi fácil. O último mês foi um resumo da era Bolsonaro. Houve uma quantia desenfreada de desinformação. (A campanha de Lula teve até de confirmar, em resposta a boatos insanos que circularam nas mídias sociais, que o candidato “não tem pacto nem jamais conversou com o diabo.”) Houve ampla discussão sobre canibalismo, maçonaria e o sistema político supostamente preferível da Idade Média. E, é claro, houve a ameaça de violência política, aparentemente encorajada pelo topo.Finalmente, para o bem da nossa saúde mental coletiva, podemos dizer que Bolsonaro foi derrotado. Não é que o Brasil esteja fortemente alinhado com Lula e a política de centro-esquerda do Partido dos Trabalhadores, que governou o país por 13 anos, terminando em 2016. É mais que os últimos quatro anos de gestão Bolsonaro nos mostraram o quão baixo uma nação pode ir, e estamos desesperados para emergir desse pântano de desalento político.Há muita coisa dessa gestão que não vai deixar saudades — a negligência assassina, a corrupção arraigada, o fanatismo. Um dos maiores alívios será não precisar mais participar de discussões loucas. O Brasil, enfim, pode voltar a ter uma aparência de sanidade.É difícil acreditar no quanto o debate público mudou. Nove anos atrás, os brasileiros foram às ruas para pedir a gratuidade no transporte público. Quão longe estamos desse tipo de mentalidade cívica hoje? Agora passamos boa parte do tempo garantindo (de uma forma cada vez mais exasperada) que a virologia de fato existe e a mudança climática não é uma farsa globalista.Temos medo de ir às ruas protestar e dar ao governo um motivo para tentar um golpe. Achamos que qualquer cidadão passando em um automóvel pode estar armado. Sabemos que usar vermelho será visto como uma declaração política. (Recentemente um cardeal católico brasileiro foi levado a prestar contas sobre suas vestimentas tradicionais, o que mostra que nem mesmo o clero está acima de qualquer suspeição.) Não ousamos discutir as notícias com os vizinhos, por medo do que eles poderão dizer. Os elevadores nunca estiveram tão silenciosos.A verdade é que a sociedade brasileira sempre foi dominada por forças conservadoras. Nenhum dos avanços das últimas duas décadas veio com facilidade — o programa de assistência social Bolsa Família, as cotas nas universidades e no setor público, ou o casamento entre pessoas do mesmo sexo. Todos foram recebidos com escárnio, se não com total indignação, pela maior parte dos conservadores. Mas foram batalhas travadas entre a centro-esquerda e a centro-direita, que então eram suficientemente razoáveis para se empenhar em um debate democrático. Isso mudou quando Bolsonaro entrou na cena política nacional. Primeiro aos poucos, e então de modo súbito, uma barragem de extremismo de direita reprimido se rompeu.Dia após dia, a integridade do debate público se liquefez em alegações conspiratórias, impulsionadas pelas mídias sociais e encorajadas por Bolsonaro. Fomos obrigados a gastar nosso tempo combatendo publicamente a teoria de que vacinas contêm nanobots ou que, como o presidente declarou, a floresta amazônica “não pega fogo.” Toda essa energia, que podia ser gasta exigindo a melhoria do sistema público de saúde ou uma resposta mais enérgica à mudança climática, foi, em vez disso, dissipada no combate a tolices obscuras.Mas Bolsonaro não nos deu outra chance, inclusive até o momento das eleições. Não há dúvida de que ele tinha como meta a autocracia e iria aproveitar qualquer oportunidade de se manter no poder; a necessidade de derrotá-lo se tornou uma prioridade absoluta, tomando precedência sobre qualquer outra preocupação. Isso explica a amplitude da coalizão em torno da candidatura de Lula, que incluiu até antigos oponentes da centro-direita. A batalha eleitoral foi reduzida a um binarismo: contra ou a favor de Bolsonaro.Na realidade, não é assim tão simples. De um lado, não há solução tangível para o quanto as redes sociais parecem empurrar os cidadãos a posições extremas, aprofundando a polarização. De outro, os políticos endossados por Bolsonaro agora são parte estabelecida do cenário político. O povo elegeu mais de uma dúzia de governadores que apoiam Bolsonaro, das 27 unidades da federação, e seu partido obteve maioria no Senado após ganhar oito dos 27 assentos à disposição. (Muitos dos novos senadores, que ficarão no poder pelos próximos oito anos, são ex-ministros da gestão Bolsonaro.) A extrema direita também aumentou sua influência no Congresso: o partido do presidente ganhou 99 assentos na Câmara, formada por 513 deputados. Jair Bolsonaro pode até deixar o cargo, mas o bolsonarismo está longe de acabar.Isso representa sérios desafios à próxima gestão. Não só porque uma extrema direita encorajada será um obstáculo constante para o lado de Lula, mas também porque irá forçá-lo a recorrer aos partidos do Centrão, abrindo caminho para a troca de favores — muitas vezes corrupta — que desfigurou a democracia brasileira desde sua concepção. Ainda assim, a oportunidade para uma nova trajetória política nacional não pode ser menosprezada. Após ocupar a Presidência do país, a extrema direita pode ser empurrada de volta às margens da política. No mínimo teremos um governo mais preocupado com o aumento da desigualdade e da fome, em vez do número de seguidores em suas motociatas de apoio. Só isso já é um alívio.De modo crucial, os brasileiros poderão voltar a discutir assuntos mais urgentes do país, como o déficit de moradia, a educação pública, a polícia militar e o racismo. Talvez também possamos falar de coisas que nos interessam e nos surpreendem, que nos dão satisfação. (Tartarugas e astronomia, alguém?) Depois de tudo o que passamos, merecemos algum respiro dessa loucura.Vanessa Barbara é a editora do sítio literário A Hortaliça, autora de dois romances e dois livros de não-ficção em português, e escritora de opinião do The New York Times. More
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Your Monday Briefing: Seoul Mourns Halloween Crush Victims
Plus Russia halts Ukrainian grain shipments and Brazilians vote for their next president.A man paid his respects at the memorial site of the crowd crush in Seoul on Sunday.Chang W. Lee/The New York TimesAt least 150 dead in SeoulAt least 150 people were killed in Seoul after they were crushed in a Halloween crowd on Saturday. Most were in their teens and 20s, and women significantly outnumbered men among the victims. South Koreans are trying to understand how the crowd crush happened now that most of the victims have been identified. Witnesses said they saw almost no crowd control and scant police presence in the hours leading up to the tragedy, even though people were filling the streets. The crush happened in Itaewon, a popular nightlife district, on the first Halloween after most pandemic-related social distancing measures were lifted.As the night grew more frenetic and the mass of revelers swelled, many of them crammed into an alleyway barely 11 feet wide, in a bottleneck of human traffic that made it difficult to breathe and move. From within the crowd came calls to “push, push” and a big shove. Then, they began to fall, a tangle of too many bodies, compressed into too small of a space.Toll: At a community center where family members had been awaiting news, wrenching wails followed dreaded confirmations. Shin Su-Bin, 25, is among the dead. Her family had been calling her phone that night to no answer.Details: Among those killed in Itaewon, Seoul’s most diverse neighborhood, were citizens of the U.S., China, Iran, Norway and Uzbekistan. Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea’s president, has declared a weeklong period of national mourning.Context: The tragedy is one of the deadliest peacetime accidents in South Korea’s history. In recent years, it has been eclipsed only by the Sewol ferry sinking in 2014, where more than 300 people died — including 250 high school students.Friends and relatives helped Anna Moroz, 80, salvage what she could from her home in Ukraine.Ivor Prickett for The New York TimesRussia pulls back from grain dealOn Saturday, Russia withdrew from a deal that had allowed grain to be exported from Ukrainian ports, upending an agreement that was intended to alleviate a global food crisis. Yesterday, the U.N. and Turkey pushed to revive the deal, which they helped broker.Russia’s move came hours after a drone attack on its Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, which Russia blamed on Ukraine. Russia said it could no longer ensure the security of cargo ships taking grain from Ukrainian ports and would suspend the agreement’s implementation “for an indefinite period.”The State of the WarGrain Deal: After accusing Ukraine of attacking its ships in Crimea, Russia withdrew from an agreement allowing the export of grain from Ukrainian ports. The move jeopardized a rare case of wartime coordination aimed at lowering global food prices and combating hunger.Turning the Tables: With powerful Western weapons and deadly homemade drones, Ukraine now has an artillery advantage over Russia in the southern Kherson region, erasing what had been a critical asset for Moscow.Fears of Escalation: President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia repeated the unfounded claim that Ukraine was preparing to explode a so-called dirty bomb, as concerns rose in the West that the Kremlin was seeking a pretext to escalate the war.A Coalition Under Strain: President Biden is facing new challenges keeping together the bipartisan, multinational coalition supporting Ukraine. The alliance has shown signs of fraying with the approach of the U.S. midterm elections and a cold European winter.The grain deal, which was signed in July, also aimed to lower food prices. Russia’s move jeopardized a rare case of wartime coordination, which ended a five-month Russian blockade. The deal allowed more than 9.2 million tons of grain and foodstuffs to be exported again. Many were bound for poor countries.Reaction: The U.S. accused Russia of using food as a weapon. “It’s really outrageous to increase starvation,” President Biden said on Saturday. Fighting: With Western weaponry, Ukraine now has a front line advantage in the south. Despite the slog of mud season, its army keeps advancing.Toll: Ukraine’s children face years of trauma.Brazil’s vote is one of Latin America’s most important in decades. Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesBrazilians choose their new presidentVoters headed to the polls yesterday to cast their ballots in a presidential runoff. Polls closed just before this newsletter was sent, and results are still coming. Here are live results and an overview of the race.Voters faced a stark choice after an ugly campaign. Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist, seeks a second term as president. He faces Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the once-incarcerated former leader who vows to revive leftist policies.The vote carries major consequences for the Amazon, and thus the entire planet. Bolsonaro gutted the agencies tasked with protecting the rainforest, leading to increased deforestation. Da Silva has vowed to eradicate illegal logging and mining.It is also a test for democracy. Bolsonaro has spent years attacking Brazil’s democratic institutions, including a sustained effort to undermine its election systems. In so doing, he has destroyed public trust in the elections.What’s next: If Bolsonaro loses, will he accept his defeat?Details: Brazil’s elections chief ordered the head of the country’s highway police to answer allegations that he had ordered traffic stops, particularly of buses transporting voters to the polls, in an effort to suppress turnout.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificDozens of Australians, many of whom are children, remain in the camps.Ivor Prickett for The New York TimesSeventeen Australians have returned home from Islamic State detention camps in northeast Syria, where they had lived since 2019. Dozens remain at the camps.At least 70 people were killed after a suspension bridge collapsed in the western Indian state of Gujarat yesterday.Flooding and landslides left at least 45 people dead in the Philippines.Kazuki Takahashi, who created Yu-Gi-Oh!, died in July. New details have been released: The 60-year-old drowned while trying to save others.Around the WorldElon Musk took charge of Twitter and quickly ordered layoffs. My colleagues analyzed the deal on “Hard Fork,” our podcast.Israel will hold its Parliamentary elections tomorrow. Benjamin Netanyahu is the leading candidate.At least 100 people died in the deadliest terrorist attack in Somalia in five years.The U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband was attacked in their home. He is expected to heal, but the encounter highlights fears of growing political violence in the U.S. Other Big StoriesRishi Sunak, Britain’s new prime minister, married into a secretive $800 million fortune, which might not fit within his party’s views.The U.S. released Guantánamo’s oldest prisoner, a 75-year-old businessman who was held for nearly two decades without being charged with a crime.Census data revealed that more than one in five Canadians is an immigrant. Polls show the nation approves.Tom Brady and Gisele Bündchen divorced after 13 years of marriage.A Morning ReadThis year, parts of Riyadh, the Saudi capital, looked like creatures from a haunted house had escaped and taken over the city.Tamir Kalifa for The New York TimesUntil recently, Saudi Arabia banned Halloween, which was viewed as suspicious and pagan. But this past weekend, the kingdom hosted a government-sponsored “horror weekend” — not strictly speaking a Halloween festival, but certainly conveniently timed.Clowns and goblins filled the streets, and costume shops sold out almost as fast as employees could restock the shelves. “Saudi is changing,” said a young man going as a wizard.UP FOR DEBATEShould daylight saving time end?Mexico City (and most of the rest of Mexico) would stop springing forward and falling back.Marco Ugarte/Associated PressLast week, Mexico’s Senate voted to end daylight saving time for most of the country, prioritizing morning light. In March, the U.S. Senate took the opposite approach when it unanimously passed legislation to make daylight saving time permanent. (The House has not found consensus.)Each side of the debate carries strong opinions. The business community generally supports keeping daylight saving time: Many retailers and outdoor industries say that extra afternoon light can boost sales because people have more time to spend money after work or school.But many scientists believe that doing away with it, as Mexico is poised to do, is better for human health. They argue that aligns more closely with the sun’s progression — and, therefore, with the body’s natural clock.Mexico’s Senate seems to agree. “This new law seeks to guarantee the human right to health and increase safety in the mornings, procure the well-being and productivity of the population, and contribute to saving electric energy,” the body said on Twitter.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookChristopher Simpson for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.Start your week off right with this simple salted-caramel rice pudding for dessert.What to Watch“The Novelist’s Film,” by the South Korean director Hong Sang-soo, is a study in small moments and chance encounters.Tech TipA latecomers’ guide to TikTok.TravelThe next time you’re in Mexico City, tour the former houses of Frida Kahlo, Diego Rivera and Leon Trotsky.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Hair colorer (three letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. Happy Halloween, and see you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Jenna Russell, a longtime reporter at The Boston Globe, will be our next New England bureau chief.Start your week with this narrated long read about animal voyages. And here is Friday’s edition of “The Daily,” on Brazil’s elections.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More
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Brazil’s Runoff Faces ‘Spiritual Warfare’ for Evangelical Voters
As the race between Brazil’s right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro, and his leftist challenger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, tightened, Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies intensified their courting of a voting bloc key to his campaign: evangelical Christians.In the days leading to Sunday’s runoff election, the country was awash in harsh attacks against Mr. da Silva that were meant in part to sway evangelical voters, who make up by some estimates roughly 30 percent of the population and have become key supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro.The president likely needs this bloc, which tends to be more conservative than other religious groups in Brazil, to vote for him in significant numbers if he is to win a second term.Mr. Bolsonaro won more than 60 percent of the evangelical vote in his first campaign for the presidency in 2018 and received a similar percentage during the first round of voting in this election cycle.Evangelicals are the only religious group that has clear political representation in Congress, and they vote as a bloc on certain conservative topics.Bolsonaro supporters in recent weeks accused Mr. da Silva of being a Satanist who would close churches if he won and described him as a supporter of abortion rights, the legalization of drugs and “gender ideology,” a movement to re-examine the concept of gender.Mr. Bolsonaro amplified some of these claims. “When someone is in favor of abortion, as Lula is in favor, the guy turns on the yellow light,” the president said in a recent interview on a podcast, warning voters to be wary of Mr. da Silva.Mr. da Silva, who has said he is opposed to abortion rights and the legalization of drugs, recently had to clarify that he does not have a pact with the devil. (He has not given a position on “gender ideology.”)Mr. Bolsonaro has also drawn the backing of evangelical pastors who have used their pulpits to pressure their congregants to vote for the president.“The speeches within the churches say that this is not an election, but spiritual warfare,” said Vinicius do Valle, a political scientist and the leader of the Observatory of Evangelicals, an organization studying their impact on Brazilian society.Mr. da. Silva’s allies have fired back with their own attacks on Mr. Bolsonaro’s character, including trying to link him to freemasonry and questioning his sexual morals by pointing to a video in which he suggests sexual interest in teenage girls.Mr. Bolsonaro has also been accused of cannibalism because of another video, a 2016 interview with The New York Times in which he talks of eating an Indigenous person.Mr. da Silva, who has said that he has “never used religion in his campaign,” recently met with evangelical leaders and called Mr. Bolsonaro a “compulsive liar.” More
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Segunda vuelta en Brasil: lo que hay que saber
La votación se realizará tras una larga y dura campaña política que enfrenta a dos figuras políticas importantes en una contienda que ha puesto a prueba la democracia del país.Los brasileños acudirán a las urnas el domingo para elegir a un nuevo presidente en una disputada segunda vuelta entre dos candidatos que ofrecen visiones marcadamente distintas para el futuro de la democracia más grande de América Latina.El presidente de derecha, Jair Bolsonaro, ha movilizado a sus simpatizantes en torno a lo que califica como un ataque de la izquierda a los valores familiares y las libertades individuales. Ha caracterizado como enemigos a los académicos, los medios de comunicación e incluso a instituciones democráticas como el Congreso brasileño y el Supremo Tribunal Federal.El candidato de izquierda Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, quien es expresidente de la nación, ha prometido que gobernará para todos los brasileños y que devolverá el país a un pasado más próspero, aunque su propia historia de escándalos por corrupción ha dividido a los votantes.Durante la primera vuelta realizada el 2 de octubre, Da Silva obtuvo alrededor de seis millones de votos más que Bolsonaro —quien quedó en segundo lugar—, pero no alcanzó el umbral del 50 por ciento necesario para evitar una segunda vuelta. A Bolsonaro le fue mucho mejor de lo que habían pronosticado las encuestas, lo que sugiere que la contienda del domingo podría estar reñida.El domingo, la autoridad electoral comenzará a publicar los resultados después del cierre de las urnas, a las 4:00 p. m. hora del Este. El nuevo presidente prestará juramento el 1 de enero.El Times cubrirá las elecciones en vivo durante todo el día.Una parte de la selva amazónica es incendiada para extender las áreas de pastoreo de ganado en 2019, cerca de la ciudad de Porto Velho, en el estado de Rondônia.Victor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Cuáles son los temas políticos más importantes?La elección sucede en un momento crucial para Brasil, en el que el aumento de los precios de los alimentos y el combustible, junto con una dolorosa desaceleración económica, han hecho que la vida sea más difícil para muchos brasileños. Alrededor de 33 millones de los 217 millones de habitantes del país padecen hambre. La pobreza se ha incrementado, lo que ha revertido décadas de progreso social y económico.Las preocupaciones ambientales y climáticas también ocupan un lugar preponderante. Bajo el gobierno de Bolsonaro —quien ha debilitado las protecciones ambientales y ha defendido la idea de que la selva tropical debería estar abierta a la minería, la ganadería y la agricultura— la deforestación en la Amazonía ha alcanzado niveles históricos en 15 años. La destrucción de la Amazonía y sus efectos en los esfuerzos para evitar una crisis climática ha convertido a Brasil en un paria global.También hay cuestionamientos persistentes sobre la salud de la democracia de Brasil. Bolsonaro ha sembrado dudas sobre la integridad del sistema electoral: ha afirmado, sin pruebas, que las máquinas electrónicas de votación del país pueden ser manipuladas. Bolsonaro ha dicho que, si pierde el domingo, solo será porque hubo fraude.Esto ha alimentado las preocupaciones —tanto en el país como en el extranjero— de que una potencial derrota de Bolsonaro pueda impulsarlo a atizar a sus millones de seguidores y pedirles que salgan a las calles a exigir que permanezca en el poder.Un desfile militar a favor del presidente Jair Bolsonaro en agostoVictor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Qué propone Bolsonaro?Bolsonaro ha prometido pagos en efectivo de alrededor de 113 dólares mensuales a las familias necesitadas, en lo que sería una extensión de una política temporal creada para aliviar las dificultades generadas por la pandemia.Continuar con ese programa, el cual remplazó una iniciativa similar pero menos generosa presentada por Da Silva, tiene como objetivo “reducir la pobreza y contribuir al crecimiento económico sostenible”, según el plan político oficial de Bolsonaro.En vísperas de las elecciones, Bolsonaro ha realizado un gran gasto en asistencia social y subsidios de combustible.También se comprometió a crear empleos a través de la eliminación de trámites burocráticos, recorte de impuestos e inversión en tecnología. En otro guiño a los líderes empresariales, quienes le brindaron un apoyo vital durante su primera contienda a la presidencia, Bolsonaro afirmó que mantendrá una estrategia de libre mercado y que mantendrá bajo control la deuda pública.Repitiendo la retórica que hace cuatro años le ganó el apoyo de los votantes ultraconservadores y evangélicos, Bolsonaro también ha prometido defender a “la familia”: se opondrá al aborto legal y a la educación trans en las escuelas.Bolsonaro también ha prometido expandir las políticas de mano dura contra el crimen y se comprometió a ampliar aún más el acceso a las armas de fuego, una política a la que le atribuye una reducción de los delitos violentos en todo Brasil.A retrato del expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, un político de izquierda que contiende por la presidencia contra Bolsonaro, en São PauloVictor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Qué propone Da Silva?Da Silva lideró una era dorada de crecimiento durante sus dos periodos en la presidencia, cuando un auge impulsado por las materias primas convirtió a Brasil en una historia de éxito mundial. Da Silva ha prometido devolver el país a esos días de gloria.El candidato de izquierda ha prometido aumentarles los impuestos a los ricos e incrementar el gasto público, “metiendo a la gente en el presupuesto”. Sus planes incluyen una gran cantidad de programas sociales, como un vale mensual de 113 dólares para competir con el propuesto por Bolsonaro. Las familias pobres con niños recibirán adicionalmente otros 28 dólares mensuales por cada niño menor de 6 años.También ha prometido ajustar el salario mínimo de Brasil de acuerdo con la inflación y reactivar un plan de vivienda para los pobres, además de garantizar la seguridad alimentaria para las personas que padecen hambre.Da Silva, quien fue sindicalista, planea impulsar el crecimiento y “crear oportunidades de empleo” a través de la inversión en infraestructura. Sin embargo, también tiene planeado invertir en una “economía ecológica” y ha advertido que Brasil debe hacer la transición a sistemas energéticos y alimentarios más sostenibles.En cuanto a la Amazonía, ha afirmado que tomará medidas enérgicas contra los delitos ambientales cometidos por milicias, acaparadores de tierras, madereros y otros.Electores hacían fila para votar en la primera vuelta este mes en Brasilia, BrasilDado Galdieri para The New York Times¿Qué ha sucedido desde la primera vuelta?En la primera vuelta, Da Silva obtuvo el 48 por ciento de los votos, mientras que Bolsonaro recibió el 43 por ciento, superando significativamente las proyecciones de las encuestas preelectorales y planteando dudas sobre la credibilidad de las encuestadoras.Ese desacierto de los sondeos también le dio credibilidad a las afirmaciones de Bolsonaro de que las encuestas no reflejan con precisión su popularidad.Los sondeos previos a la votación del domingo muestran a Da Silva con una ventaja estrecha sobre Bolsonaro. Ambos candidatos están intensificando sus esfuerzos para apuntalar el apoyo de los votantes.Da Silva se ha centrado en proyectar un tono más moderado y forjar alianzas con candidatos presidenciales de centro que no pasaron la primera vuelta, como una forma de obtener parte de los 10 millones de votantes que los apoyaron.Bolsonaro se ha acercado a los gobernadores de derecha en los tres estados más poblados de Brasil, con la intención de convertir respaldos políticos en votos. También ha reclutado a líderes religiosos en su búsqueda por ampliar su ventaja entre los votantes evangélicos.Sin embargo, gran parte de la campaña —la cual ya está marcada por la desinformación y los feroces ataques en línea— se ha convertido en un festival de insultos y difamaciones en el que se debate poco sobre los desafíos que enfrentará el próximo líder del país.Bolsonaro ha intentado vincular a su rival con el satanismo, lo que impulsó a Da Silva a emitir un comunicado en el que confirmó que “no tiene un pacto” con el diablo. Por su parte, Da Silva ha aprovechado la difusión de videos poco halagadores de Bolsonaro que lo vinculan con la masonería, el canibalismo y la pedofilia.Inspectores del Tribunal Electoral realizan pruebas finales en máquinas de votación electrónica en São Paulo.Victor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Cómo funciona el proceso de votación?Los brasileños emitirán sus votos en máquinas electrónicas de votación, un sistema que ha estado vigente durante más de dos décadas y que ha sido el foco de las denuncias de Bolsonaro sobre el riesgo de fraude electoral.Unos 156 millones de brasileños cumplen con los requisitos para votar en las elecciones. Votar en Brasil es obligatorio, aunque la multa por no hacerlo es menor a un dólar y es mayormente simbólica. En la primera vuelta, la participación rondó el 79 por ciento.La participación por lo general suele ser menor en la segunda vuelta porque la eliminación de candidatos tras la primera vuelta mitiga el entusiasmo de algunos votantes. Algunos votantes más pobres que se inclinarían a favorecer a Da Silva también podrían quedarse en casa porque el costo de trasladarse hacia un centro electoral en un país tan grande puede llegar a ser un desincentivo. More
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Bolsonaro vs. Lula: What to Know About Brazil’s Runoff Election
The vote comes after a long and ugly campaign that pits two major political figures against each other in race that has tested the country’s democracy.Brazilians will head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president in a bruising runoff between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the future of Latin America’s biggest democracy.The right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro, has rallied supporters around what he calls a leftist attack on family values and individual liberties. He has cast academics, the media and even democratic institutions, including Brazil’s Congress and Supreme Court, as enemies.The leftist challenger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former president, has vowed to govern for all Brazilians, while returning the country to a more prosperous past, though his own history of corruption scandals has divided voters.During the first round of voting on Oct. 2, Mr. da Silva drew about six million more votes than Mr. Bolsonaro, who came in second, but he fell short of the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff. Mr. Bolsonaro did far better than pollsters had predicted, suggesting that Sunday’s race could be close.On Sunday, the electoral authority will start releasing results after polls close at 4 p.m. E.S.T. The new president will be sworn in on Jan. 1. The Times will be covering the election live all day.A section of the Amazon rainforest being burned to expand areas for cattle grazing in 2019, near the city of Porto Velho, in the state of Rondônia.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesWhat are the issues?The election comes at a crucial moment for Brazil, where surging food and fuel prices, coupled with a painful economic slowdown, have made life harder for many Brazilians. About 33 million of the country’s 217 million people are experiencing hunger, while poverty has surged, reversing decades of social and economic progress.Environmental and climate worries also loom large. Deforestation in the Amazon has hit 15-year highs under Mr. Bolsonaro, who has weakened environmental protections and argued that the rainforest should be opened to mining, ranching and agriculture. The Amazon’s destruction — and its effects on the efforts to avert a climate crisis — has turned Brazil into a global outcast.There are also lingering questions about the health of Brazil’s democracy. Mr. Bolsonaro has sowed doubts about the integrity of the electoral system, claiming without evidence that the country’s electronic voting machines can be rigged. If he loses on Sunday, he has said, it would only be because of fraud.This has fueled worries — at home and abroad — that a potential loss for Mr. Bolsonaro may prompt him to rally his millions of supporters, calling on them to take to the streets and demand that he remain in power.A military parade for President Jair Bolsonaro in August.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesWhat does Mr. Bolsonaro propose?Mr. Bolsonaro has promised to hand out cash payments of about $113 a month to needy families, extending a temporary policy originally created to ease the pandemic’s blow.Continuing the program, which replaced a similar but less generous initiative introduced under Mr. da Silva, is meant to “reduce poverty and contribute to sustainable economic growth,” according to Mr. Bolsonaro’s official policy plan.Ahead of the election, Mr. Bolsonaro has spent heavily on welfare and fuel subsidies.He has also pledged to create jobs by eliminating bureaucratic red tape, slashing taxes and investing in technology. In a further nod to business leaders, who provided him vital support during his first run for president, Mr. Bolsonaro said he would maintain a free market approach and keep public debt in check.Echoing the rhetoric that won him support from ultraconservative and evangelical voters four years ago, Mr. Bolsonaro also promises to defend “the family,” opposing legal abortion and transgender education in schools. Mr. Bolsonaro also promises to expand tough-on-crime policies, pledging to further expand access to firearms, a policy he credits for a drop in violent crime across Brazil.A banner in São Paulo in support of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist who is challenging Mr. Bolsonaro. Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesWhat does Mr. da Silva propose?Mr. da Silva oversaw a golden era of growth during his two terms in office, when a commodity-fueled boom turned Brazil into a global success story. He promises to return the country to those glory days.The leftist candidate vows to raise taxes on the rich and boost public spending, “putting the people in the budget.” His plans include a slew of social programs, such as a $113 monthly cash voucher rivaling the one proposed by Mr. Bolsonaro. Poor families with children will also receive another $28 per month for each child under 6.Mr. da Silva has also promised to adjust Brazil’s minimum wage in step with inflation and revive a housing plan for the poor, while guaranteeing food security for people facing hunger.A former trade unionist, Mr. da Silva plans to kick start growth and “create work and employment opportunities” by spending on infrastructure. But he also plans to invest in a “green economy,” warning that Brazil must shift to more sustainable energy and food systems.On the Amazon, Mr. da Silva has signaled that he will crack down on environmental crimes by militias, land grabbers, loggers and others.Voters lining up during the first round of voting this month in Brasília, Brazil.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesWhat has happened since the first vote?In the first round of voting, Mr. da Silva won 48 percent of the vote, while Mr. Bolsonaro received 43 percent of the vote, significantly outperforming pre-election polls and raising questions about the credibility of polling firms.The flawed polls also gave credence to Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims that the surveys did not accurately reflect his popularity.Polls heading into Sunday’s vote show Mr. da Silva with a narrowing lead over Mr. Bolsonaro with both candidates intensifying efforts to shore up voter support.Mr. da Silva has focused on striking a more moderate tone and forging alliances with centrist presidential candidates who did not make it out of the first round as a way to win over some of the 10 million voters who cast ballots for them.Mr. Bolsonaro has cozied up to right-wing governors in Brazil’s three most populous states, seeking to turn political endorsements into votes. He has also enlisted religious leaders in his quest to widen his advantage among evangelical voters.Still, much of the campaign — already marked by misinformation and vicious online attacks — has devolved into mudslinging with little discussion of the challenges the country’s next leader will face.Mr. Bolsonaro’s has tried to tie his rival to Satanism, prompting Mr. da Silva to issue a statement confirming that he “does not have a pact” with the devil. Mr. da Silva, for his part, has seized on unflattering videos of Mr. Bolsonaro that link him to freemasonry, cannibalism and pedophilia.Electoral Court inspectors carry out final tests on electronic voting machines in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesHow does the vote work?Brazilians will cast ballots on electronic voting machines, a system that has been in place for more than two decades and that has been the focus of Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims about the risk of election fraud.Some 156 million Brazilians are eligible to cast a ballot in the election. Voting in Brazil is compulsory, though the fine for not casting a ballot is less than a dollar and mostly symbolic. In the first round, turnout was roughly 79 percent.Turnout typically falls in the second round because the elimination of candidates after the first round dampens enthusiasm among some voters. Some poorer voters who would tend to favor Mr. da Silva might also sit out the runoff because the cost of getting to the polls in such a sprawling country can be a disincentive. More
- in Elections
Brazil Confronts a Momentous Bolsonaro vs. Lula Election
Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday in an election between two political heavyweights that could have global repercussions.RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil on Sunday faces a crossroads.After months of pitches to voters, the nation will decide one of Latin America’s most important elections in decades, picking between the two biggest names in modern Brazilian politics and their polar visions for the country.The choice for Brazilians is whether to give President Jair Bolsonaro a second term, emboldening and empowering him to carry out a far-right mandate for the nation, or whether to bring back former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and return Brazil to a leftist track.Yet the stakes are far higher than simply a contest between the left and the right.The election carries major consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which is crucial to the health of the planet. Mr. Bolsonaro has gutted the agencies tasked with protecting the forest, leading to soaring deforestation, while Mr. da Silva has promised to eradicate illegal logging and mining.Brazil’s economy, once the world’s sixth largest, has flatlined over the past decade. Mr. Bolsonaro pledges to pursue deregulation and privatization to try to jump-start activity, while Mr. da Silva has made his central pitch about feeding and housing the poor, whose numbers have climbed during the pandemic.Mr. da Silva has run on promises to feed and house the poor, and to eradicate illegal logging and mining in the Amazon rain forest.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesThe vote is a test of the enduring strength of the right-wing populism that swept across many countries in recent years. Mr. Bolsonaro is one of the biggest remaining faces of that movement, but he is trying to withstand a recent clear shift to the left across Latin America.And then there is the concern for the health of one of the world’s biggest democracies. Mr. Bolsonaro has spent years attacking Brazil’s democratic institutions, including a sustained effort to undermine its voting system, leading millions of Brazilians to lose faith in the integrity of their nation’s elections.Now, much of the country is wondering: If the president loses the election, will he accept it?After Mr. da Silva led in the first round of voting earlier this month, many polls suggest the race has narrowed. The two men have split this country of 217 million people nearly down the middle, with many voters on each side viewing the choice as an existential one for the nation.“We have a population completely divided between two worlds,” said Malu Gaspar, a political columnist for O Globo, one of Brazil’s biggest newspapers. “So I have a lot of anticipated frustration that this is the most important election of our time, and yet we will come out of it with a lot of more problems than when we went in.”The close race, high stakes and deep polarization have led to an ugly campaign. Misinformation has soared in recent weeks, with supporters of Mr. da Silva accusing Mr. Bolsonaro of being a cannibal and a pedophile, while Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters have called Mr. da Silva a gang leader, a communist and a Satanist who wants to close the nation’s churches.Supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro during a rally at a church square in Rio de Janeiro on Thursday.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesElection officials have tried to intervene, ordering posts and videos off the internet that they say are false. Those efforts have slowed the deluge of misleading information, but they have also become their own controversy, drawing a swell of complaints of unfair refereeing, particularly from Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies.The debates between the two candidates devolved into name calling and disputes over their past versus their plans for the future. And there has been a spate of political violence, with countless beatings and at least two killings connected to the election.This week, the violence and claims of censorship from the right collided when the authorities tried to arrest a right-wing congressman whom the Supreme Court had ordered not to speak publicly because, it said, he had attacked Brazil’s democratic institutions. He responded by shooting at the police and throwing a grenade, injuring two officers. He is now in jail.With a victory on Sunday, Mr. da Silva would complete a stunning political revival. The former shoeshine boy and metalworker with a fifth-grade education rose to become Brazil’s president in 2003. He then used a commodity boom and the discovery of offshore oil to reshape the country, lifting 20 million Brazilians out of extreme poverty. By the time he left office in 2010, he had an 80 percent approval rating.But things quickly turned south for him, his leftist Workers Party and Brazil. His handpicked successor’s interventions into the economy helped plunge Brazil into a recession from which it has never fully recovered, and then a corruption investigation revealed a sprawling kickback scheme that had festered deep inside the Brazilian government under his party’s control.Mr. da Silva in 2018, when a prison sentence for corruption ended his last presidential campaign. His conviction was later overturned. Lalo de Almeida for The New York TimesNearly 300 people were eventually arrested in the scheme, including Mr. da Silva. He was sentenced to 22 years in prison on charges that he accepted a condo and home improvements from companies bidding on government contracts. But after 17 months, he was released and his convictions were later nullified after the Supreme Court ruled that the judge in his cases was biased. While Mr. da Silva was not cleared of wrongdoing, the decision allowed him to run for president again.Mr. Bolsonaro is a former Army captain who served three decades in Congress as a fringe far-right lawmaker known for extreme statements. In 2018, in the wake of Mr. da Silva’s prison sentence, Mr. Bolsonaro rode the global wave of right-wing populism to the presidency, promising to root out what he called the corruption of Brazil’s leftists.His four years since have been tumultuous. He has attacked judges, journalists, political rivals and environmentalists, while also publicly doubting the science behind Covid-19. He pushed unproven drugs during the pandemic and delayed in buying vaccines. The coronavirus killed nearly 700,000 people in Brazil, the second-highest official toll, after the United States.Yet despite the turmoil, Mr. Bolsonaro’s support has endured. He far outperformed polls’ expectations in the first round of voting on Oct. 2, and while recent polls have shown Mr. da Silva still in the lead, Mr. Bolsonaro was within striking distance.The president’s base is a bloc known as “beef, bibles and bullets,” representing people connected to the agribusiness industry, evangelical movement, and law enforcement and the military. Under a slogan of “God, homeland, family and freedom,” he has focused his pitch on warnings about the left trying to change what he calls Brazilians’ traditional way of life.Mr. Bolsonaro as a federal legislator in his office in 2017. Behind him are the portraits of Brazil’s leaders during the military dictatorship.Lalo de Almeida for The New York TimesIn his closing pitch to voters in the first presidential debate this month, Mr. Bolsonaro did not mention the economy, and instead accused the left of wanting to legalize drugs and abortion, abolish private property and force children to learn about “gender ideology” and use unisex bathrooms. “We don’t want a country of retrogression, corruption, thievery and disrespect for our religion,” he said.Mr. da Silva has built a broad coalition in recent months, from the center-right to the far left, with people concerned about what might happen under a second Bolsonaro term. But he has maintained Brazil’ working class as his base and built his platform around taxing the rich and expanding services for the poor. His stump speech has highlighted a promise that all Brazilians deserve a top cut of meat and a cold beer.“Let’s get back to fixing this country, and let’s get back to eating and drinking a beer at weekend barbecues,” he said. Mr. Bolsonaro “goes crazy because he thinks only he can, but we want to eat at the barbecues, too.”The campaign, however, has also had a more worrisome element. For more than a year, Mr. Bolsonaro has warned that he may not accept a loss. He has claimed, without credible evidence, that Brazil’s electronic voting system is rife with fraud and that the left is set on rigging the vote. As a result, three out of four of his supporters say they trust the voting system only a little or not at all.Electoral Court inspectors packing up voting machines after testing them in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesOver the past week, Mr. Bolsonaro has also begun to claim other kinds of fraud. His campaign has accused radio stations of playing far more ads from Mr. da Silva, which would violate election laws, but the evidence the campaign produced was incomplete and quickly shown to be flawed. Brazil’s election chief, whom Mr. Bolsonaro has called biased, dismissed the accusations.Yet Mr. Bolsonaro’s son, a congressman, suggested this week that the vote should be delayed because of the alleged fraud, and Mr. Bolsonaro himself is complaining that it is more proof of an unfair election.“It’s fraud. It interferes with the results of the election,” Mr. Bolsonaro told reporters on Wednesday. “I am a victim once again.”André Spigariol contributed reporting from Brasília. More
