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      Your Tuesday Briefing: Texas Reels From Mass Shootings

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      Also, evacuation orders in occupied Ukraine.A memorial to shooting victims outside a shopping mall near Dallas, Texas.Cooper Neill for The New York TimesTexas shaken by mass shootingsThirteen people have been killed in mass shootings in Texas in the past two weeks. The mass murders have fueled a new openness to gun regulation among some Texans, but Republican lawmakers have shown no interest in taking action to address the violence.In fact, Texas has increased access to guns during the past two years even as the state endured more than a dozen mass killings, including a shooting at a school in Uvalde, where a gunman killed 19 children and two adults. The state did away with its permit requirements to carry handguns. It also lowered the age to carry handguns to 18 from 21.While less supportive of stricter gun regulation than Americans as a whole, Texans support some limited gun control measures, polls show. Over the past few years views on guns among Republican voters in Texas have appeared to moderate somewhat.But Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, said that there would be no new effort by his administration to limit access to firearms, because it would not work.Recent shootings: On Sunday, a gunman killed eight people in a mall outside Dallas, before the police killed him. The gunman may have espoused white supremacist ideology; authorities are examining a social media profile, rife with hate-filled rants against women and Black people, that they believe belonged to him. A week earlier, five people were killed after they asked their neighbor to stop shooting in his front yard.The national picture: A nonprofit group has counted more than 200 mass shootings in the U.S. this year.Russian shelling damaged this building in the Zaporizhzhia region.Andriy Andriyenko/Associated PressRussia prepares for a counteroffensiveWith heavy fighting expected very soon, Russian officials in some occupied areas of Ukraine have ordered evacuations. But some Ukrainians there are staying, and residents described an atmosphere of confusion, defiance and scarcity.About 70,000 people were expected to move from the Zaporizhzhia region after officials issued evacuation orders for 18 towns and villages. The region is one of the areas along the long front line where Ukraine could try to break through the Russian defenses.But while the evacuation was described as mandatory, there appeared to be little effort to force people to leave. In Zaporizhzhia, in fact, few people appeared to be heeding the orders. More than a dozen people there, and in the Kherson region, told our colleagues that gas stations were running dry, grocery store shelves were emptying and A.T.M.s were out of cash.Fighting: In Zaporizhzhia, there was no indication of a Russian withdrawal, Ukrainian military officials and Western military analysts said. Instead, Russia’s troops are expanding defensive fortifications — a sign that they are digging in for coming battles.Other updates from the war:Russia launched a large wave of attack drones at Kyiv overnight. Ukraine said it had shot all of them down. Russia’s celebrations for Victory Day today have been scaled back because of security concerns. President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to address the nation.Investigators inspected the scene of the deadly hospital fire in Beijing.Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesChina hospital fire exposes elder care shortfallA fire at a hospital in southern Beijing last month left at least 29 dead, many of them older people with disabilities who had been at the facility for months, and in some cases years. The hospital was not licensed to provide long-term elder care.The tragedy exposed a serious problem: the country’s supply of nursing home beds has not kept pace with its rapidly aging population. The authorities have recognized the urgency of addressing the shortage, but many obstacles remain.The stigma against retirement facilities abounds in a culture that emphasizes children’s duties toward their parents. Public facilities have long waiting lists, and private ones can be prohibitively expensive. In addition, getting a facility licensed to offer elder care in the first place is a complicated bureaucratic process, leading some private companies to operate underground.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificA local police officer said the boat was “overcrowded.” Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAt least 22 people, many of them children, died in the Indian state of Kerala when a tourist boat capsized.China’s foreign minister met with the U.S. ambassador to China in Beijing yesterday, a sign of a possible thaw in relations.Other Big StoriesAs Britain’s coronation celebrations ended, there were signs that both the nation and its royal family were preparing for a new era.Israel’s court crisis is at the front line of a longstanding dispute between ultra-Orthodox Jews and those who support religious pluralism and secularism.Floods and landslides have killed more than 400 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo. More rain is expected in the coming days.Wildfires have burned almost 1 million acres in Western Canada.Here is King Charles’s official portrait. The photographer had just minutes to capture the image.A Morning ReadCalla Kessler for The New York TimesFor canine experts, an invitation to be a judge at the Westminster Dog Show is an honor and a serious responsibility. In all, more than 2,500 dogs are competing, with the Best in Show prize to be awarded today in New York City.“It’s harder to become a dog judge than a brain surgeon, to tell you the truth,” a veteran judge said.ARTS AND IDEASDancers practiced in Hawaii last month.Brendan George Ko for The New York TimesPreserving the “heartbeat” of HawaiiIn the imaginations of many outside Hawaii, hula may conjure images of coconut bras and cellophane skirts, a misunderstanding perpetuated by pop cultural representations in film and television.But hula is an ancient and often sacred dance, one of the ways Native Hawaiians documented their history, mythology, religion and knowledge. And the Merrie Monarch Festival is hula’s Olympics.For the last 60 years, the festival, held in the sleepy town of Hilo, has helped reclaim Hawaii’s native culture, language and identity. The festivities honor King David Kalakaua, who assumed the throne of Hawaii in 1871, and is credited with reviving many ancient practices, most notably, hula, which he called “the heartbeat of the Hawaiian people.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookRyan Liebe for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne.Lime and habaneros make this saltfish buljol, a Caribbean cod dish, taste spiky and bright.What to WatchIn “Slava Ukraini,” Bernard-Henri Lévy documents the war in the second half of 2022.What to Read“King: A Life” is the first major biography of Martin Luther King, Jr., in decades.ParentingTips to help a teen with insomnia.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Pig food (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you tomorrow. — Amelia and JustinP.S. The Times won two Pulitzers for our reporting in Ukraine and on Jeff Bezos.“The Daily” is on the U.S. Supreme Court.We welcome your feedback. You can reach us at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      In Erdogan’s Turkey, a Building System Fatally Weakened by Corruption

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      The building began convulsing at 4:17 a.m. Firat Yayla was awake in bed, scrolling through videos on his phone. His mother was asleep down the hall.The region along Turkey’s border with Syria was known for earthquakes, but this apartment complex was new, built to withstand disaster. It was called Guclu Bahce, or Mighty Garden. Mr. Yayla’s own cousin had helped build it. He and his business partner had boasted that the complex could withstand even the most powerful tremor.So, as the earth heaved for more than a minute, Mr. Yayla, 21, and his 62-year-old mother, Sohret Guclu, a retired schoolteacher, remained inside.At that very moment, though, Mr. Yayla’s cousin, the developer, was leaping for safety from a second-story balcony.Sohret Guclu, a retired schoolteacher, was asleep in her home in Antakya, Turkey, when the quake hit.via Firat YaylaWhat Mr. Yayla and his mother had not known was that the system to ensure that buildings were safely constructed to code had been tainted by money and politics. That system prioritized speed over rules and technical expertise.A New York Times investigation found that a developer won zoning approval for the project after donating more than $200,000 to a local soccer club, where the mayor is an honorary president. Then, when residents raised alarms that the blueprints did not match what had been built, they received no satisfying reply from the local government. The building inspector said that, even after the project had failed its inspection, the developers used political influence to get the doors open.The apartment complex, in the southern Turkish city of Antakya, was a concrete and stone representation of a patronage system that has flourished under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he has propelled a construction boom across Turkey for the past two decades.Undeterred by warnings that the breakneck development lacked sufficient engineering oversight, officials in the capital, Ankara, gave local politicians more power to issue construction licenses for large projects without scrutiny from independent professionals.Basic suggestions never took off — that civil engineers should have to pass a certification exam, for instance.Rescue workers at the site of the collapsed Guclu Bahce building. About 65 people died there.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesThat building spree turned middle-class landowners like the Guclus, for whom the Guclu Bahce complex was named, into developers and landlords. Mr. Erdogan, who will stand for re-election on May 14, used construction as a vessel for economic growth and a symbol of Turkey’s progress. Local politicians from all parties benefited from the jobs, housing and off-the-books payments that commonly flowed from it all.Mr. Erdogan’s office referred questions to the environmental ministry, which did not respond to requests for comment.The Feb. 6 earthquake revealed the shaky foundation on which so much growth was built. More than 50,000 people died as buildings toppled, crumbled or pancaked. Guclu Bahce, the mighty earthquake-proof complex, was among them. An estimated 65 people died there.“So many died because they were told that the safest place was inside, and they should not try to leave during an earthquake,” said Fatma Oguz, whose sister died in the collapse.For the Guclu family, several of whom lived in the building, the collapse created a fatal rift. Survivors have turned on each other amid a lawsuit, a criminal investigation and a bitter search for answers:Were the buildings doomed to fall by nature of a powerful earthquake? Or did someone cut corners? Who can be held accountable in a system in which blueprints cannot be trusted and nobody agrees on whether the building passed inspection? The inspector says somebody forged his signature. It is unclear if the final project was up to code, and the developers cannot agree on who actually built anything.As the building shook in February, Mr. Yayla called out to his mother to stay in her room and get on the floor next to her bed. He did the same. They would ride this out safely.Then came a fierce thud, and the columns holding up the bedroom ceiling snapped.‘Money From Our Friends’Family members say the land, covered in fig trees, had been theirs for three generations.By 2015, buildings were popping up all around, a testament to a Turkish economy that had been growing about 7 percent a year.Mehmet Guclu, a young developer with a civil engineering degree, approached his relatives with a plan. Look around, he told them. Somebody’s going to develop this parcel. Better to keep it in the family, to be landlords, to make money.“He convinced us that he’d build the most magnificent project in our family name,” said Yusuf Guclu, another cousin who lived in the complex. He said that Mehmet had promised to protect against the earthquakes everyone in the region knew to expect.Mehmet Guclu, then in his 30s, was a charismatic striver with a luxe aesthetic, known for incorporating sleek finishes and expensive materials like marble. He had already built some of the tallest buildings in Antakya.The extended family had dreamed of exactly this opportunity for years.The complex was to be a centerpiece of the community — five towers, complete with luxury apartments, retail shops, a pool and a high-end gym.Mehmet’s career had taken off quickly, in part because of Turkey’s low barriers to entry for civil engineering graduates. Unlike in the United States and United Kingdom, graduates in Turkey do not need to pass certification exams or complete on-the-job training to become an engineer. Architectural trade groups have called for such requirements for years.The Guclu Bahce complex in May 2020, before residents moved in. The development attracted doctors, teachers, judges and politicians, some of whom bought multiple properties as investments.Google Maps“University educates you. It doesn’t train you,” said Mustafa Erdik, an earthquake engineering professor at Bogazici University in Istanbul. “We have to bring in professional engineering.”Getting a project started often hinges on unwritten rules that can be as important as technical expertise. In this part of southern Turkey, for example, contractors have known for years that a donation to the local soccer club can move a project along, said Hikmet Cincin, the former head of the soccer club. Antakya’s mayor at the time, Lutfu Savas, serves as the club’s honorary president.After discussions with that mayor, Mehmet Guclu gave the club more than half a million lira, more than $200,000 at the time, according to a person involved in the construction process who spoke on condition of anonymity because of an ongoing investigation.Mr. Savas denied profiting from Guclu Bahce’s construction and said the donation had not been tied to the project. “If we ask for money from our friends,” he said of gifts to the soccer club, “it’s for the benefit of everyone.”He called himself an honest politician in a corrupt system. He said developers commonly made payments to circumvent bureaucratic approvals. Most build whatever they want and assume it will be approved, he said. He blamed Mr. Erdogan and his political party for fostering this culture.But Mr. Savas, himself a former member of Mr. Erdogan’s party, was adamant that was not the case with Guclu Bahce.Mr. Savas says he has little memory of the particulars. What is clear is that the project rolled along in the following years, and the foundation was laid in summer 2017.But the earth in that part of Turkey is not ideal for building, particularly in an earthquake zone, said Serkan Koc, a member of the Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects.“These areas shouldn’t have been turned into construction zones,” he said. Soft soil, for example, will amplify an earthquake. Mr. Koc said Turkish environmental officials should have assessed the whole area before the building boom.“Although the ministry had the authority to inspect, they didn’t” he said. The environmental ministry did not respond to requests for comment.As Mr. Guclu’s new project moved forward, the only limitations seemed to be financial. Soon after the foundation was poured, his money dried up. He turned to a prominent developer, Servet Altas, to help see it through.Mr. Altas became the public face of the project. His initials, in red and blue, would later adorn the low wall ringing the complex.Sales PitchSohret Guclu had been eager for a steady income to supplement her modest state pension. So she swapped her land deeds for ownership of six apartments and a retail storefront.She had raised two boys in an old, crumbling apartment building. Her new home was to be a four-bedroom unit with an airy living room and kitchen — one of the largest in the complex.Guclu Bahce’s apartments were among the region’s most expensive, costing as much as $160,000. But Mr. Altas promised upscale amenities and unparalleled safety, former residents said.“If there were an earthquake right now, I would run inside,” Mr. Altas repeatedly said, recalled Ertugrul Sahbaz, a building manager for the complex.Guclu Bahce attracted doctors, teachers, judges and politicians. Songul Oguz and her husband bought a $117,000 apartment after a sales agent said that the building’s strong foundation and reinforced steel bars could withstand even a 10-magnitude earthquake, Ms. Oguz’s sister recalled. It would take 10 days for Ms. Oguz’s body to be pulled from the wreckage.Mr. Altas, wearing a plaid jacket and bow tie, joined government officials for a jubilant opening ceremony in late 2019. They smiled and posed with a pair of 10-foot gold scissors that were later recorded by Guinness World Records as the world’s largest. Mr. Altas thanked Mr. Guclu for his engineering work and his own son for working as one of the architects.Servet Altas, center, at a ribbon-cutting ceremony during the opening of the apartment complex.Mehmet Bayrak/Hatay-IhaFew have argued that these developers knowingly put people in deadly buildings. Mr. Guclu’s own family lived there, after all, as did Mr. Altas’s son. Turkey deemed Mr. Guclu a qualified engineer, and the local government — measured by the number of officials at the grand opening — supported the project.But the chest-thumping and fanfare were premature. The buildings failed a final inspection, according to court testimony. The nature of the violations is murky, but Ismail Ozturk, a building inspector, testified this year that his company had raised concerns with the local authorities.Mr. Ozturk testified that the contractors had leveraged “close connections” in the city government to overcome the failed inspection. The city mayor at the time, Ismail Kimyeci, who belongs to Mr. Erdogan’s party, denied any special treatment. He said the government’s final approval had been a formality. “The inspection firm plays the most important role here,” Mr. Kimyeci said.Mr. Ozturk’s signature does appear on a certification document. Through his lawyer, he said it had been forged.In a functioning system, there would be no ambiguity about who had approved a project. But Turkey’s system is built on ambiguity. The Erdogan government has, for decades, weakened independent, expert construction oversight and fought proposals to toughen standards.Turkey’s chamber of civil engineers, for example, has argued for years that experienced engineers are stretched too thin to adequately supervise construction projects. The group has called for every project to get a dedicated engineer. That idea, which could have slowed down construction, went nowhere. The Erdogan government sued the group in 2015, blocking it from issuing its own, stricter certifications for engineers.Lawmakers also privatized the building inspection process, sidelining Turkey’s engineering and architectural union. And while the government in 2019 eliminated a rule allowing contractors to pick their inspectors, mayors still hold power to push past potential issues.Guclu Bahce’s opening was delayed. Discrepancies existed between the blueprints and what was built, Mr. Ozturk said in testimony after the earthquake. Some former residents, too, said that they had picked up on such differences and sent a letter to the city raising concerns.One resident said the dispute centered on the very building in which Mr. Yayla slept the night of the earthquake — the first to collapse. The resident said that the building had featured an extra floor, a penthouse with a terrace that had not appeared in the plans.The resident, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid being dragged into a criminal and civil dispute, said he had helped broker a meeting between Mr. Altas and the city’s current mayor, Izzettin Yilmaz, to find a solution.Mr. Yilmaz, a member of Mr. Erdogan’s party, acknowledged in an interview that he had met with Mr. Altas. But he said the purpose was to tell the contractor that he was not interested in taking bribes. Gossip was swirling, he said, and he wanted to make things clear: “I told him: ‘No one requested a payment from you.’”Through his lawyer, though, Mr. Altas, denied meeting with the mayor. What’s more, Mr. Altas — who took credit at the opening ceremony for building the complex — now denies involvement with the construction or the planning. That was Mehmet Guclu’s responsibility, he said.Despite claiming no involvement, Mr. Altas said he was certain that the complex matched the blueprints.There is no indication in Mr. Ozturk’s testimony that anything was done to assess the design changes. Residents said the city promised to investigate, but they never heard back.Whether this discrepancy played any role in Guclu Bahce’s collapse and whether the inspection was adequate are among many questions being asked in the government’s criminal investigation and a family lawsuit.But the city ultimately awarded occupancy permits and residents finally moved into their apartments in 2021. Guclu Bahce sprang to life, with a health club, a home goods store and a chicken shop.For almost two years, nobody looked back or gave further thought to the construction process.Cries in the DarknessLying on the floor next to his bed, Firat Yayla thought immediately of his cousin’s assurances about the building’s sturdiness. His confidence lasted less than a minute, though, until he heard the sound of crumbling concrete.The wall next to him was caving in.As the 7.8-magnitude earthquake continued for about 90 seconds, the building fell sideways. Steel bars knifed out from the concrete, and he began slipping toward them.The lights went out, and Mr. Yayla was sure he was going to die.The next thing he registered was the sound of car alarms. His foot was wedged in a crack and he couldn’t move under the weight of a giant wall. He could barely breathe but managed to call into the darkness.“Mom!” he shouted. “Are you OK?”She called back. “Firat! Firat! Firat!”But her cries weakened, and then went quiet.“Please help me!” he shouted over and over.A resident helped free Mr. Yayla from the rubble. He survived without serious injuries. Mehmet Guclu survived his jump from the balcony with little more than an injured finger.Firat Yayla, 21, was rescued without serious injuries from the ruins of Guclu Bahce. His mother did not make it.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesSohret Guclu died, along with more than five dozen other residents.Members of the Guclu family have sued the contractors and the inspection company, alleging construction flaws. Among those they accuse of wrongdoing is Mehmet Guclu, the cousin on whom they had pinned so many hopes.Sohret’s brother, Yusuf Guclu, said family members were angry at a system of back-scratching and favor-trading that had papered over potential problems.That system had worked in his family’s favor. The Guclus had lived the Turkish dream, converting their land into a cash cow thanks to a relative’s expertise and connections. Now, Yusuf’s sister was dead and his family was accepting donated clothing.“We’ve lost everything,” he said.Mr. Altas was arrested and jailed pending the outcome of the investigation. He has not been charged with a crime. Through his lawyer, he said he had only bankrolled the project.Mr. Ozturk, the inspector, has also been arrested but not charged. He denies signing off on the project.And, in a meeting with The Times, Mr. Guclu appeared shellshocked. He said he would consider speaking publicly about the building, the lawsuit and his family.But with a warrant out for his arrest, Mr. Guclu soon stopped returning messages.The last time he was in contact, he was working on a government construction project — part of Mr. Erdogan’s well-publicized plan to rebuild the region swiftly.The Guclu Bahce complex, which fell sideways, after the quake. Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesBeril Eski More

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      Will This Earthquake Be Erdogan’s Undoing?

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      ADIYAMAN, Turkey — Beneath each fresh mound in this rapidly expanding graveyard lies a tragedy. One morning at dawn, Zeki Karababa told me about his.Karababa’s brother, Hamit; Hamit’s wife, Fatma; and two children, Ahmet, 10, and Evra, 3, had been crushed when their apartment building crumbled in the earthquake.But that was just the beginning.“For three days there were no professional rescuers,” Karababa told me. By the time they found his relatives, all four were dead.“I took the bodies with my bare hands,” he said, weeping. “Nobody came to help us.”It is a refrain I heard over and over in the week I spent traversing southeastern Turkey last month. The country is struggling to recover from an earthquake whose wrath defies superlatives: 50,000 dead in Turkey and Syria and countless families homeless. The World Bank estimates that the quake caused $34.2 billion in physical damage in Turkey, or roughly 4 percent of the country’s G.D.P.Turkey’s government, led by the increasingly autocratic President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has tried to portray the unbearable losses as the inevitable result of a biblical catastrophe that no one could have prepared for. But few people I spoke to were buying that.“There is nothing natural about this disaster,” Ali Aslan, a volunteer rescue worker in Adiyaman, told me. “The state failed these people. They didn’t have to die like this.”In all of the death and destruction, nothing has been shaken more thoroughly than the Turkish people’s faith in their government. The quake has undermined Erdogan’s strongman image and exposed the core contradiction of autocratic rule: A government that insists on its own omnipotence and competence will inevitably disappoint when it is nowhere to be seen in the face of disaster. The implicit trade — freedom for safety and security — begins to look like a very bad bargain indeed.This is not the first time the Turkish people have had to confront this reality. For generations, Turkish citizens had been told that the government — “devlet baba,” or father state — would keep them safe. Few people have gotten more out of this promise than Erdogan. He rose to power in the aftermath of Turkey’s last devastating earthquake, which hit near Istanbul in 1999 and killed more than 17,000 people. Just as they did last month, victims lay under the rubble for days awaiting rescue from a government that showed up too late or not at all.“I am not saying that the civil defense organization collapsed,” a Turkish lawmaker said at the time. “It did not exist. I saw that there was not the slightest bit of preparation.”Survivors of the earthquake stand in line to get aid at a distribution point in Adiyaman.Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York TimesThe government response was “a declaration of bankruptcy for the Turkish political and economic system,” a cabinet member declared in a speech. “All ideological arguments were flattened by the earthquake,” he said. “Lying under the ruins is the Turkish political and administrative system.”The state’s compact with the Turkish people had been broken. The disastrous response was seen by many as a result of the corrupt governance and decadent indifference of the elite, and it led to the eventual defeat of the secular, nationalist establishment that had held power in Ankara since the founding of the Turkish state. Erdogan had been Istanbul’s mayor and was a loud critic of the government at the time. His new political party, the Justice and Development Party, took power, led by pious business owners who said they wanted to improve the lot of the average citizen, not line their own pockets.But more than 20 years have passed, and now the tables have turned. If it took roughly eight decades for the old elite to wear out their welcome with corruption and overreach, Erdogan and his party have achieved the same ignominy in two.“In any modern setting, when something bad happens to you, you expect the state to show up,” said Selim Koru, a leading analyst of Turkish affairs. “Somebody is supposed to answer the call. And when that doesn’t happen, people just get very, very upset.”There are lots of very angry people in Turkey right now. “Lies, lies and more lies, it has been 20 years, resign,” Turkish football fans recently shouted.It wasn’t supposed to be this way.Erdogan and his party came to power promising good governance and public safety in the aftermath of the Istanbul quake. His government embarked on a frenzy of building, and construction supercharged the Turkish economy. Per capita G.D.P. nearly tripled between 2003 and its peak in 2013. In just about every city, towers of apartment blocks mushroomed. Cranes dotted the skylines.But many of those buildings held deadly secrets that only now have spilled out. Idris Bedirhanoglu, a professor of civil engineering at Dicle University in southern Turkey, explained to me how contractors routinely cut corners and the government let them get away with it. They might skimp on cement or substitute smooth river stones for commercially made crushed gravel, making for a weaker aggregate. A builder might put in thinner rebar.In 2018 Erdogan extended what was known as “zoning amnesty” to buildings that did not meet stringent code requirements. The action was intended as an election year sop to voters who had expanded their homes and businesses illegally, and he touted this in remarks he gave in the city of Kahramanmaras. That city would be one of the hardest hit by this year’s earthquake.What’s left of an area in Hatay, Turkey, after the quake.Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York TimesErdogan’s rise to power after the 1999 Istanbul disaster was paralleled by a surge in civic activity. Many people felt abandoned by a paternalistic government. Turkish intellectuals and activists formed and bolstered their own civil society organizations aimed at helping one another through all manner of difficulties. A lot of the organizing was done by professional associations of architects and engineers and others worried about not just building safety but also the use of public space and the environmental impacts of the building frenzy that accompanied Erdogan’s rise. These groups did not want a new, paternalistic state to take the place of the old one. They wanted greater participation in a truly democratic civic sphere.In Erdogan’s first decade in power, he was broadly hailed as a champion of openness and democracy. Turkey was seeking European Union membership and burnishing its democratic credentials. Erdogan emphasized freedom of religion, which had been repressed in the old secular regime, and freedom of expression. Most critically, he managed to contain Turkey’s military and all but eliminate its meddling in political life.But ultimately Erdogan began refashioning the old centralized state as an even more powerful instrument that he alone could wield. Over the past decade, and with increasing speed since a 2016 coup plot was put down, Erdogan has squeezed civil society groups, brought the independent press to heel and prosecuted his political opponents. He has steadily accrued power, culminating in a 2017 referendum that moved Turkey from a parliamentary system to a strong executive system, giving him greater control over the judiciary and legislature.He centralized disaster relief under a new government agency known as AFAD, and in a decision that calls to mind George W. Bush’s appointment of the head of the International Arabian Horse Association to lead FEMA two years before Hurricane Katrina, Erdogan named a theologian with little experience in disaster relief to head AFAD’s relief efforts, according to local media reports.Erdogan has joined a growing club of elected autocrats who came to power in truly democratic elections only to slowly insulate themselves from political competition. For such men there is no need to declare oneself the leader for life — it is much better to follow the frog-in-boiling-water approach. Bit by bit, destroy the independence of institutions, civil society, the media. Drain the legislature of its oversight power. Bend the judiciary to your will. Use the law to remove popular competitors from the playing field of politics. Slowly, then all at once, you are the only person who can win an election.Zeki Karababa mourns the death of his brother Hamit and Hamit’s wife and children, all killed when their apartment building collapsed in the earthquake.Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York TimesIt is happening in India and in Hungary, and many feared that Brazil was headed in this direction, until the last election. The natural end point of this process — unfettered one-man rule despite regular elections — is on display most tragically in Russia, where a madman who answers to no one controls what is reportedly the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. But Civicus, an organization that tracks the health of civil society across the globe, gives Turkey the same rating as Russia: repressed.In the concentration of this power, however, lie the seeds of destruction. If the president controls all the levers of power, who else can he blame when the response to a disaster goes awry? In a world where we expect more disasters, not fewer, this is an extraordinary vulnerability.“To build his strongman rule he weakened institutions, and those weak institutions came back to haunt him,” said Gonul Tol, director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute. “It really undermined his ability to govern and deliver.”It would be foolish to try to predict with any certainty how the earthquake and its aftermath will affect Erdogan’s political fortunes. The country needs rebuilding, and Erdogan is nothing if not a committed builder. Dueling polls disagree about whether his popularity has dipped since the quake.Erdogan also has lots of friends on the global stage. His handling of the cataclysm on his doorstep in Syria, which could easily have undone a less savvy leader, has raised Turkey’s stature, making him ever more indispensable in a new, multipolar world. Turkey is a NATO member that nevertheless has warming ties with Russia, making it a crucial and sometimes frustrating player in the Ukraine crisis.But as Erdogan well knows, disaster changes the trajectory of history in sudden and unexpected ways. The country is in the midst of an economic crisis, in part driven by Erdogan’s highly unorthodox policy of keeping interest rates low despite inflation soaring at one point beyond 85 percent. A poll before the earthquake found that more than 70 percent of young Turks want to leave the country, and that percentage is certain to rise. Even before the quake, Erdogan’s poll numbers were slipping.Meanwhile, the fractured Turkish opposition has become more united. New polling numbers reported this week show a double-digit lead for the opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. He has pledged to return the country to its parliamentary system and decentralize power.Last week, Erdogan indicated that elections would happen on schedule. Right now, Turkey simmers with grief and rage. The last time there was a massive quake, that grief and rage were channeled into the possibility of a new compact between citizen and state in Turkey and a rejection of the centralized, autocratic style of the previous regime. If Erdogan and his party, despite a promising start, have crushed that dream, the elections in May, assuming they are allowed to proceed freely and fairly, could offer another rare chance for the Turkish people to try again.“I think this is the last exit for Turkish democracy,” Gonul Tol said. “The stakes are really high.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Anger Over Quake Response Challenges Erdogan Ahead of Election

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      A furor is building among some survivors over the government’s handling of the crisis. “I have been voting for this government for 20 years, and I’m telling everyone about my anger,” said one. “I will never forgive them.”GAZIANTEP, Turkey — A powerful earthquake struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, killing more than 17,000 people, exposing government incompetence and fueling an economic crisis. Amid the turmoil, a young, charismatic politician rode a wave of public anger to become prime minister in 2003.That politician was Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Now, as president, Mr. Erdogan faces challenges similar to those that brought down his predecessors — posing what is perhaps the greatest threat of his two decades in power to his political future.The deadliest earthquake to strike Turkey in almost a century killed at least 20,000 people this past week, with the bodies of countless others still buried in the rubble. It hit after a year of persistently high inflation that has impoverished Turkish families, leaving many with scarce resources to bounce back.The quake’s aftermath has highlighted how much Mr. Erdogan has reshaped the Turkish state, analysts said. Critics accuse him of pushing the country toward autocracy by weakening civil rights and eroding the independence of state institutions, like the Foreign Ministry and the central bank. And in a series of moves aimed at undercutting his rivals and centralizing control, he has restricted institutions like the army that could have helped with the earthquake response while stocking others with loyalists.Mr. Erdogan acknowledged on Friday that his government’s initial response to the disaster had been slow, and anger was building among some survivors, a sentiment that could hamper his bid to remain in power in elections expected on May 14.“I have been voting for this government for 20 years, and I’m telling everyone about my anger,” said Mikail Gul, 53, who lost five family members in a building collapse. “I will never forgive them.”Residents searched for their relatives in a collapsed building in Kahramanmaras, near the epicenter of the quake, on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesMr. Erdogan assessed the earthquake damage in Kahramanmaras on Wednesday.Adem Altan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe president, who faced harsh criticism in 2021 over his government’s failure to control disastrous wildfires, has long portrayed himself as a leader in touch with the common citizen. He visited communities hit hard by the quake in recent days. Dressed in black, his face grim, he visited the wounded and comforted people who had lost their homes and emphasized the magnitude of the crisis.“We are face to face with one of the greatest disasters in our history,” he said on Friday during a visit to Adiyaman Province. “It is a reality that we could not intervene as fast as we wished.”The 7.8 magnitude earthquake — the most powerful in Turkey in decades — and hundreds of aftershocks toppled buildings along a 250-mile-long swath in the south, destroying thousands of buildings and causing billions of dollars in damage. Across the border in Syria, nearly 4,000 dead have been counted, a toll that is expected to rise significantly.“This is the largest-scale disaster that Turkey has to manage, and, inevitably, this will create a backlash against the government,” said Sinan Ulgen, the director of Edam, an Istanbul-based think tank. “But much will depend on how effectively it can address the needs of the affected population.”A man mourning the death of his father in Kahramanmaras on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesMany residents of the disaster zone have expressed frustration with the government’s response, saying that in some areas, the state was nowhere to be seen during the initial aftermath.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesThe Turkish government has begun an extensive aid operation, dispatching 141,000 aid and rescue workers to search for the dead and wounded, to distribute food, blankets and diapers and to erect tents for the tens of thousands of homeless, many of them sleeping in cars to avoid the subzero winter chill.Deadly Quake in Turkey and SyriaA 7.8-magnitude earthquake on Feb. 6, with its epicenter in Gaziantep, Turkey, has become one of the deadliest natural disasters of the century.A Devastating Event: The quake, one of the deadliest since 2000, rippled through neighboring countries; an area along the Syrian-Turkish border was hit particularly hard.From the Scene: Thousands of people have been killed, and dozens of cities have been gutted. Here is how witnesses described the disaster.A Desperate Search: When buildings fell in Antakya, Turkey, families poured in from all over to help. Videos capture the dig for survivors.Syrian Refugees: Millions of people fled the war in Syria for the safety of neighboring Turkey. Now, those killed in the quake are being returned home.Nevertheless, many survivors have expressed frustration with the government’s response, saying the state was nowhere to be found during the initial aftermath, leaving residents alone to find shelter and free trapped loved ones from collapsed buildings.The scarcity of trained rescue squads and heavy machinery during the critical first days most likely increased the death toll because many people who could have been saved were not.When government agencies arrived, residents said, their equipment seemed insufficient and they failed to coordinate the efforts of volunteers who were already struggling to help survivors.For two days after the quake, Mr. Gul said his family lacked food and water and felt helpless amid the destruction.“The house next to us collapsed and there was a girl inside saying, ‘Save me! save me!’” he said.The girl was saved, but Mr. Gul and his relatives had to dig out their five dead family members, he said.He had worked in Germany for 20 years, funneling his savings into 10 apartments in the city of Kahramanmaras, near the quake’s epicenter, so he could live off the rent. But all of the apartments were destroyed, and he has to start over.“I don’t know what I’m going to do,” he said.Distributing aid in the southern city of Antakya on Wednesday.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesTurkish soldiers joined a rescue operation in Kahramanmaras on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesDuring his two decades as prime minister and president, Mr. Erdogan has argued that changes to the way Turkey was run were necessary to protect it from a range of domestic and foreign threats, including military coups and terrorist groups.He has also restricted the army, which played a key role in the government’s response to the 1999 earthquake.Turker Erturk, a former Navy admiral who was a commander in the crisis center set up after that quake, said in an interview that the army had swiftly intervened. But in the years since, Mr. Erdogan’s government had limited that ability and the army had stopped planning and training for it, he said.After Monday’s quake, the government called on the army only after public criticism, according to Mr. Erturk.“It is because of one-man rule,” he said. “In authoritarian governments, those decisions are made at the very top, and they wait for his commands.”On Friday, the army said in a tweet that its soldiers had been helping “from the first day” and now had more than 25,000 soldiers deployed. But their presence has not been obvious in many of the hardest-hit areas.Leading the government’s earthquake response is the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, or AFAD, which critics say Mr. Erdogan has stocked with loyalists and empowered at the expense of other organizations, like the Turkish Red Crescent.AFAD, the agency leading the government’s earthquake response, set up shelters for the homeless on the edge of Antakya on Thursday.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesA family gathered around a fire to stay warm in Antakya on Wednesday.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe earthquake has also led to increased scrutiny of the government’s use of construction codes aimed at preventing buildings from collapsing, according to analystsAlthough no one can predict the precise timing of an earthquake, seismologists have been warning for years that a big one was expected in this region.Three days before the quake, a prominent geologist, Naci Gorur, wrote on Twitter that he was concerned that other seismic activity in Turkey had put pressure on the faults near the epicenter of Monday’s tremor. He even posted a map pinning some of the locations that would be the hardest hit if his predictions came to pass.After the quake, he tweeted again, saying: “As geologists, we grew exhausted of repeating that this earthquake was coming. No one even cared what we were saying.”Following the 1999 quake, Turkey strengthened its construction codes to make buildings more earthquake resistant.But the zone devastated by the recent quakes is dotted with areas where some buildings survived while others nearby — some relatively new — completely collapsed, raising questions about whether some contractors had cut corners.A damaged artist’s studio in Antakya.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesThe body of an earthquake victim at the entrance to a mosque in Antakya.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesAt one collapsed apartment block this week, volunteer construction workers spotted what they said was inferior rebar and they broke up chunks of concrete with their hands, saying it was poor quality.In the days since, a lawyers’ association has asked prosecutors in Kahramanmaras to identify contractors who built buildings that collapsed and inspectors who checked them so they can be investigated for possible criminal violations. Prosectors in Gaziantep have started collecting rubble samples for their own investigation.The earthquake left behind billions of dollars in damage, and government plans will require billions more at a time when the state budget is already strained.Before the quake, Mr. Erdogan’s government unleashed billions of dollars in new spending aimed at cushioning the blow of high inflation to citizens before the election, a cash injection that some economists predicted could tip the country into recession this year.On top of economic hardship, the earthquake will deepen Turks’ distress, and not in a way that makes them feel that they are contributing to a greater cause, said Selim Koru, an analyst at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey.“This, by its nature, comes out of nowhere, and it makes people even more miserable, and not just in the earthquake zone,” he said. “The economy is going to suffer, and I’m not sure it gives that suffering any meaning.”Searching for clothing in a donation pile in Antakya.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesWatching the search and rescue operation in Antakya.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe earthquake’s proximity to the presidential and parliamentary elections that must be held on or before June 18 could lead to other challenges.The Reuters news agency quoted an unnamed Turkish official on Thursday as saying the earthquake’s devastation posed “serious difficulties” for the vote. It was the first hint that the government could seek to postpone it.Trying to unseat Mr. Erdogan is a coalition of six opposition parties that want to bolster the economy and restore independence to state institutions. They have already started trying to turn the quake response into an election issue.But even some angry voters still trust Mr. Erdogan.“We failed this test,” said Ismail Ozaslan, 58, a long-haul truck driver in a park in Gaziantep where part of his family was cramped inside a tent. “We are like patients left to die. There is no management here.”But his criticism of local and national officials, whom he accused of corruption and neglect, stopped short of Mr. Erdogan.“It’s like a building where the roof is strong but the pillars are rotten,” he said. “We don’t have a chance other than Erdogan. May God grant him a long life.”The damaged Kurtulus mosque in Gaziantep.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesSafak Timur More

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      Protestas en Perú: Aumenta a 47 el número de muertos

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      En un solo día se registraron al menos 17 muertes en el sur del país. “Lo que ocurrió ayer realmente fue una masacre”, dijo una activista de derechos humanos.LIMA — Un joven estudiante de medicina con su uniforme de trabajo, desesperado, cuenta su familia, por ayudar a los manifestantes heridos. Un hombre de 22 años que finalmente había ahorrado lo suficiente para estudiar mecánica. Un vendedor de helados que volvía a casa tras un largo día de trabajo.Ninguno participó en las manifestaciones que han consumido a Perú durante un mes. Pero todos murieron el lunes en el sur del país, víctimas de lo que se convirtió en el día más mortífero de enfrentamientos entre manifestantes y fuerzas gubernamentales desde que el país estalló en violencia el mes pasado.En cuestión de horas, al menos 17 civiles y un policía fallecieron en el caos de las manifestaciones, según la Defensoría del Pueblo del país, una oleada de violencia extraordinaria que complicó el intento de la nueva presidenta de estabilizar el país.Las muertes, en la ciudad de Juliaca, cerca de la frontera con Bolivia, provocaron un repudio generalizado hacia las fuerzas de seguridad peruanas, que parecen ser responsables de la mayoría de los fallecimientos, y han sido acusadas por manifestantes y grupos de derechos humanos de usar la fuerza letal de forma indiscriminada contra civiles.“Él estaba con la ropa uniformada, como todos los médicos, para que sean reconocidos y no los ataquen”, dijo Milagros Samillan, de 27 años, hermana del residente médico muerto, un aspirante a neurocirujano llamado Marco Samillan, de 31 años. “Pero aun así la policía los ha atacado a matar”.Marco Samillan, de 31 años, estudiante de medicina asesinado en las protestas de Juliaca, Perú.Milagros SamillanEl martes, Jennie Dador, secretaria ejecutiva de la Coordinadora Nacional de Derechos Humanos de Perú, un grupo de rendición de cuentas, responsabilizó de las muertes del lunes al “uso indiscriminado de la fuerza” por parte de las fuerzas de seguridad del Estado.“Lo que ocurrió ayer realmente fue una masacre”, comentó. “Fueron asesinatos extrajudiciales”.Perú, el quinto país más poblado de América Latina, ha sido escenario de manifestaciones violentas desde mediados de diciembre, cuando el entonces presidente de izquierda del país, Pedro Castillo, quien había prometido atender los viejos problemas de la pobreza y la desigualdad, intentó disolver el Congreso y gobernar por decreto. La medida fue condenada de manera generalizada como una acción inconstitucional, Castillo fue detenido y su vicepresidenta fue juramentada en su lugar.Los partidarios de Castillo, muchos de ellos provenientes de regiones rurales desfavorecidas, rápidamente tomaron las calles para pedir nuevas elecciones generales y varios de ellos afirmaron que se les había arrebatado el derecho a ser gobernados por el hombre que habían elegido para el cargo solamente un año antes.La violencia del lunes en la ciudad de Juliaca, al sur del país, marcó el enfrentamiento más mortífero entre civiles y actores armados en Perú en al menos dos décadas, cuando el país salió de una dictadura y de una lucha prolongada y brutal contra una guerrilla violenta, un conflicto que dejó al menos 70.000 personas muertas, muchas de ellas civiles.Las convulsiones violentas en Perú se producen en un momento en el que Sudamérica enfrenta amenazas importantes en muchas de sus democracias , y cuando las encuestas muestran niveles excepcionalmente bajos de confianza en las instituciones gubernamentales, los políticos y los medios de comunicación.El domingo, simpatizantes de Jair Bolsonaro, el expresidente de extrema derecha de Brasil, asaltaron el Congreso y otros edificios de la capital, impulsados por la creencia de que las elecciones que Bolsonaro perdió en octubre habían estado amañadas. En la vecina Bolivia, estallaron protestas en Santa Cruz, centro económico del país, tras la detención del gobernador de la oposición, cuyos partidarios afirman que está siendo perseguido por el gobierno en el poder.El ministro del Interior de Perú, Víctor Rojas, dijo que las protestas en Juliaca habían comenzado de manera pacífica pero que se volvieron violentas alrededor de las 3 p. m., cuando aunos 9000 manifestantes intentaron tomar el control del aeropuerto y personas con armas improvisadas y explosivos atacaron a la policía.La policía antidisturbios se enfrentaba el lunes a los manifestantes en Puno.Juan Carlos Cisneros/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesEn medio de los disturbios, las imágenes de la televisión local mostraron a personas destruyendo las oficinas de los fiscales y un supermercado en Juliaca e incendiando la casa de un legislador de un partido de la oposición.Rojas aseguró que las fuerzas de seguridad habían actuado dentro de los límites legales para defenderse. Fue “imposible controlar a la turba”, dijo.Los enfrentamientos en Juliaca elevan el número de fallecidos a nivel nacional desde la destitución de Castillo a al menos 47 personas, según la Defensoría del Pueblo de Perú. Casi todos los muertos han sido civiles, aseguró el organismo: 39 personas que murieron en medio de las protestas, junto a un oficial de policía y siete que fallecieron en accidentes de tránsito relacionados con el caos o como resultado de los bloqueos de los manifestantes.Las manifestaciones comenzaron en el país poco después de que, el 7 de diciembre, las autoridades detuvieran a Castillo por cargos de rebelión. Algunas protestas en el último mes han sido pacíficas; en otros casos, los manifestantes han usado hondas para arrojar piedras, bloqueado carreteras en vías cruciales, quemado edificios gubernamentales y tomado aeropuertos.Cuando la nueva presidenta, Dina Boluarte, exaliada de Castillo, declaró en diciembre el estado de emergencia, los militares salieron a las calles para mantener el orden.Cientos de policías y civiles han resultado heridosManifestantes ayudaban a un hombre herido durante un enfrentamiento con las fuerzas de seguridad el lunes en Juliaca.Hugo Courotto/ReutersEl derramamiento de sangre más reciente en Perú ocurrió en la región de Puno, una zona predominantemente indígena del país, luego de que miles de personas de comunidades aimaras alejadas llegaran masivamente a la ciudad de Juliaca.Muchas exigen que Castillo regrese a la presidencia, un reclamo que resulta políticamente inviable en la capital, Lima, y una medida que sería ilegal.La petición principal es que se celebren nuevas elecciones generales, que según las autoridades electorales podrían realizarse tan pronto como a fines de este año. El Congreso, integrado por muchos representantes reacios a ceder sus escaños, rechazó un lapso tan ajustado, pero apoyó una propuesta para una votación en abril de 2024.Hasta la tarde del martes, Boluarte aún no había hecho comentarios sobre los disturbios desde que confirmó la muerte del primer civil un día antes, cuando pareció exasperada con las demandas de los manifestantes.“Lo único que estaba en mi mano era el adelanto de elecciones, y ya lo propusimos”, dijo Boluarte el lunes en un evento. “En paz y orden todo se puede lograr, en mitad de la violencia y el caos se complica más, se hace difícil”.El primer ministro Alberto Otárola, en rueda de prensa, culpó a Castillo y a sus aliados de la muerte de los manifestantes, al afirmar que habían incitado a ataques violentos destinados a desestabilizar al gobierno de Boluarte.“Ellos son los responsables”, dijo, “y no nuestros policías”. Ni tampoco “los ciudadanos que aterrorizados ven cómo estas hordas de delincuentes pretenden soliviantar el estado de derecho”.El martes, Otárola dijo que la región de Puno estaría sujeta a tres días de toque de queda a partir de las 8 p. m.Manifestantes se enfrentan a las fuerzas de seguridad el lunes en Juliaca, Perú.Hugo Courotto/ReutersA raíz de la violencia, las Naciones Unidas, el embajador británico en Perú y otros actores internacionales emitieron declaraciones en las que pedían explícitamente a las fuerzas de seguridad peruanas que respetaran los derechos humanos.Estados Unidos, que ha expresado en repetidas ocasiones su apoyo al gobierno de Boluarte y anunció la semana pasada una nueva financiación de ocho millones de dólares para Perú destinada a apoyar los esfuerzos en la lucha contra el narcotráfico, fue menos directo.“Es urgente que se tomen medidas para detener esta dolorosa situación de violencia y evitar la pérdida de más vidas humanas”, escribió en Twitter la embajadora estadounidense en Perú, Lisa Kenna.Tras la llegada de los primeros nueve cadáveres a un hospital de Juliaca el lunes por la tarde, Enrique Sotomayor, médico funcionario del hospital, dijo a los medios de comunicación locales que todos habían recibido disparos de proyectiles de armas de fuego lo suficientemente potentes como para dañar gravemente los órganos internos.Samillan, el aspirante a neurocirujano, esperaba abrir algún día un hospital que atendiera a personas de escasos recursos económicos, dijo su hermana. Estaba haciendo su internado en un hospital de Juliaca y el lunes, junto con otros voluntarios, había salido a la calle para ayudar a los manifestantes heridos.Hablando por teléfono mientras se encontraba en un patio frente a la morgue del hospital, Samillan dijo que su hermano había recibido dos disparos.“Todo fue tan rápido, tan sangriento que hasta ahorita estoy sin creer todo lo que está pasando”, dijo.Una foto familiar de Samillan, en el centroMilagros SamillanSamillan dijo que su hermano era “una persona que le gusta ayudar a la gente, que muchas veces él ha venido diciendo: ‘Yo voy a apoyar a la gente. No importa que pierda la vida’. Lamentablemente, se hizo real eso, ¿no?”.Pidió la renuncia de Boluarte.“El pueblo no la quiere”, dijo.Roger Cayo, de 22 años, siempre quiso estudiar mecánica, pero no podía costearlo, dijo su único hermano, Mauro Cayo. Este año por fin había ahorrado suficiente para hacerlo. Esos planes se truncaron cuando el lunes recibió un disparo en la cabeza mientras pasaba junto a las protestas.“Aquí nos encontramos todos los dolientes”, dijo Cayo, que esperaba para recoger el cuerpo de su hermano. Por teléfono, se oía de fondo el sonido de un llanto.Gabriel Omar López, de 35 años, fue la primera persona muerta a manos de la policía el lunes. Su esposa declaró al diario La República que le habían disparado en medio del caos tras un día vendiendo helados en la calle.El martes, la policía identificó al suboficial muerto como José Luis Soncco, y el Ministerio del Interior dijo que había muerto después de que los manifestantes atacaran un vehículo policial, se apoderaran de armas e incendiaran el auto.Los manifestantes han asegurado que marcharán a Lima en los próximos días, mientras que el gobierno ha prometido introducir nuevas medidas para restablecer el orden. Muchos peruanos temen una nueva ola de violencia.El gobierno ha anunciado el envío de una delegación de altos funcionarios a Puno para entablar un diálogo. Pero no está claro con quién hablarán. El lunes, el ministro del Interior, Rojas, dijo que no había encontrado a nadie en Puno dispuesto a hablar con él.“En el Ejecutivo tenemos todas las ganas de hacer las cosas bien, queremos enmendar errores”, pero los manifestantes “cerraron la puerta” al diálogo, dijo.“Hay compatriotas muertos, ese es el objetivo de ellos. Crear caos sobre el caos”, dijo Rojas.Julie Turkewitz es la jefa de la oficina de los Andes y da cobertura a Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Perú, Surinam y Guyana. Antes de trasladarse a Sudamérica, fue corresponsal nacional en el oeste de Estados Unidos. @julieturkewitz More

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      Death Toll in Peru Rises to 47 Amid Extraordinary Violence

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      “What happened yesterday was really a massacre,” said one human rights activist.LIMA, Peru — A young medical student in his work uniform, desperate, his family said, to help injured protesters. A 22-year old man who had finally saved up enough to study mechanics. An ice cream vendor returning home after a long day of work.None took part in the demonstrations that have consumed Peru for a month. But all were killed in southern Peru on Monday, casualties in what became the deadliest day of clashes between protesters and government forces since the country erupted in violence last month.In a matter of hours, at least 17 civilians and one police officer were killed in the chaos of demonstrations, according to the country’s ombudsman office, an extraordinary spasm of violence that complicated the new president’s attempt to stabilize the country.The killings, in the city of Juliaca, near the border with Bolivia, drew widespread condemnation of Peruvian security forces, which appear to be responsible for most of the deaths, and have been accused by protesters and human rights groups of using lethal force indiscriminately against civilians.“He was in uniform, like all the doctors, so that they would be recognized and not attacked,” said Milagros Samillan, 27, the sister of the dead medical resident, an aspiring neurosurgeon named Marco Samillan, 31. “But the police still attacked them to kill.”Marco Samillan, 31, a medical student killed in the protests in Juliaca, Peru.Milagros SamillanOn Tuesday, Jennie Dador, executive secretary of the National Human Rights Coordinator of Peru, an accountability group, blamed “indiscriminate use of force” by state security forces for Monday’s deaths.“What happened yesterday was really a massacre,’’ she said. “These were extrajudicial killings.”Peru, the fifth-most-populous nation in Latin America, has been the scene of violent demonstrations since early December, when the country’s leftist president, Pedro Castillo, who had promised to address longstanding issues of poverty and inequality, attempted to dissolve Congress and rule by decree. The move was widely condemned as unconstitutional and Mr. Castillo was arrested and replaced by his vice president.Supporters of Mr. Castillo, many of them living in impoverished rural regions, quickly took to the streets to demand new general elections, with many claiming they had been stripped of the right to be governed by the man they had voted into office just one year earlier.The violence in Juliaca on Monday marked the deadliest single clash between civilians and armed actors in Peru in at least two decades, when the country emerged from a dictatorship as well as from a long and brutal fight with a violent guerrilla group, a conflict that left at least 70,000 people dead, many of them civilians.The political convulsion in Peru come as South America faces significant threats to many of its young democracies, with polls showing exceptionally low levels of trust in government institutions, politicians and the media.On Sunday, supporters of Brazil’s former far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, stormed Congress and other buildings in the capital, fueled by a belief that the election Mr. Bolsonaro lost in October had been rigged. And in nearby Bolivia, protests have erupted in the economic hub of Santa Cruz following the arrest of the opposition governor, whose supporters claim he is being persecuted by the ruling government.Peru’s interior minister, Victor Rojas, said that the protests in Juliaca had begun peacefully on Monday but turned violent around 3 p.m., when about 9,000 protesters tried to take control of the local airport and people armed with makeshift guns and explosives attacked police officers.The riot police clashing with protesters in Puno on Monday.Juan Carlos Cisneros/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAmid the unrest, local television images showed people vandalizing the offices of public prosecutors and a supermarket in Juliaca and setting fire to the house of a lawmaker from an opposition party.Mr. Rojas claimed that security forces had acted within legal limits to defend themselves. “It became impossible to control the mob,” he said.The clashes in Juliaca raise the death toll since Mr. Castillo’s ouster to at least 47 people, according to the nation’s ombudsman. Nearly all of the dead have been civilians, the office said, with 39 killed, along with one police officer, amid protests and seven killed in traffic accidents related to the unrest or as a result of protesters’ blockades.The country’s demonstrations began shortly after authorities arrested Mr. Castillo on charges of rebellion on Dec. 7. Over the last month, some protests have been peaceful; in other cases marchers have used slingshots to fling rocks, set up roadblocks on vital highways, burned government buildings and taken over airports.When the new president, Dina Boluarte, a former ally of Mr. Castillo’s, declared a state of emergency in December, the military took to the streets to maintain order.Hundreds of police officers and civilians have been injured.Demonstrators assisting a man injured during a clash with security forces on Monday in Juliaca.Hugo Courotto/ReutersThe most recent bloodshed occurred in the region of Puno, a heavily Indigenous part of Peru, after villagers from remote Aymara communities arrived by the thousands in the city of Juliaca.Many were calling for Mr. Castillo to be returned to office, a political nonstarter in the capital of Lima, and a move that would be illegal.The chief demand is new general elections, which the electoral authorities said could happen as early as late this year. Congress has rejected such a tight time frame, with many representatives reluctant to give up their seats, but has backed a proposal for a vote in April 2024.By Tuesday afternoon, Ms. Boluarte still had not commented on the unrest since confirming the first civilian killed a day earlier, when she sounded exasperated with protesters’ demands.“The only thing in my hands is bringing forward elections — and we’ve already proposed it,” Ms. Boluarte said at an event on Monday. “During peace, anything can be achieved, but amid violence and chaos it gets harder.”Prime Minister Alberto Otárola, at a news conference, blamed Mr. Castillo and his allies for the deaths of the protesters, saying that they had incited violent attacks meant to destabilize Ms. Boluarte’s government.“They are who is responsible,” he said, “not our police, and not citizens who have been terrorized to see how these hordes of criminals try to undermine our rights.”On Tuesday, Mr. Otárola said the region of Puno would be subject to three days of curfew beginning at 8 p.m.Demonstrators clashing with security forces on Monday in Juliaca, Peru.Hugo Courotto/ReutersIn the wake of the violence, the United Nations, the British ambassador in Peru and other international players issued statements explicitly calling on Peruvian security forces to respect human rights.The United States, which has repeatedly expressed support for Ms. Boluarte’s government and last week announced $8 million in new funding for Peru to support efforts to fight drug trafficking, was less direct.“It is urgent that measures are taken to stop this painful situation of violence and avoid the loss of more human lives,” the U.S. ambassador to Peru, Lisa Kenna, wrote on Twitter.After the first nine bodies arrived at a hospital in Juliaca on Monday afternoon, Dr. Enrique Sotomayor, a hospital official, told local media that all had been shot with projectiles from firearms strong enough to seriously damage internal organs.Mr. Samillan, the aspiring neurosurgeon, hoped to one day open a hospital that would serve people with few economic resources, his sister said. He was completing an internship at a hospital in Juliaca, and on Monday, he and other volunteers had gone to the streets to help wounded protesters, she said.Speaking on the phone as she stood in a courtyard outside the hospital morgue, Ms. Samillan said her brother had been shot twice.“Everything was so fast, so bloody that even now I can’t believe everything that’s happening,” she said.A family photo of Mr. Samillan, center.Milagros SamillanMs. Samillan said her brother was “a person who likes to help people. And many times he has said: ‘I am going to support the people. It doesn’t matter if I lose my life.’ Unfortunately that became real, didn’t it?”She called for the resignation of Ms. Boluarte.“The people don’t want her,” she said.Roger Cayo, 22, always wanted to study mechanics, but he couldn’t afford it, said his only brother, Mauro Cayo. This year he had finally saved up enough money to go. Those plans were dashed when he was shot in the head on Monday while passing by the protests.“Right now we are all mourners here,” said Mr. Cayo, who was waiting to collect his brother’s body. On the phone, the sound of crying was audible in the background.Gabriel Omar López, 35, was the first person reported dead by the police on Monday. His wife told a newspaper, La República, that he had been shot amid the chaos after a day selling ice cream in the streets.On Tuesday, the police identified the dead officer as José Luis Soncco, and the Interior Ministry said he had died after protesters attacked a police vehicle, seized weapons and set the vehicle on fire.Protesters have vowed to march to Lima in the coming days, while the government has promised to introduce new measures to restore order. Many Peruvians fear a fresh wave of violence.The government said a delegation of high-ranking officials was being deployed to Puno to establish dialogue. But it was unclear whom they would speak with. On Monday, the interior minister, Mr. Rojas, said he was unable to find anyone in Puno willing to talk with him.“In the executive branch, we want to do things right, we want to fix our mistakes,” but the protesters have “closed the door” to dialogue, he said.“Their purpose is to create chaos,” Mr. Rojas said. “They were seeking these deaths.” More

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      Your Monday Briefing: Seoul Mourns Halloween Crush Victims

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      Plus Russia halts Ukrainian grain shipments and Brazilians vote for their next president.A man paid his respects at the memorial site of the crowd crush in Seoul on Sunday.Chang W. Lee/The New York TimesAt least 150 dead in SeoulAt least 150 people were killed in Seoul after they were crushed in a Halloween crowd on Saturday. Most were in their teens and 20s, and women significantly outnumbered men among the victims. South Koreans are trying to understand how the crowd crush happened now that most of the victims have been identified. Witnesses said they saw almost no crowd control and scant police presence in the hours leading up to the tragedy, even though people were filling the streets. The crush happened in Itaewon, a popular nightlife district, on the first Halloween after most pandemic-related social distancing measures were lifted.As the night grew more frenetic and the mass of revelers swelled, many of them crammed into an alleyway barely 11 feet wide, in a bottleneck of human traffic that made it difficult to breathe and move. From within the crowd came calls to “push, push” and a big shove. Then, they began to fall, a tangle of too many bodies, compressed into too small of a space.Toll: At a community center where family members had been awaiting news, wrenching wails followed dreaded confirmations. Shin Su-Bin, 25, is among the dead. Her family had been calling her phone that night to no answer.Details: Among those killed in Itaewon, Seoul’s most diverse neighborhood, were citizens of the U.S., China, Iran, Norway and Uzbekistan. Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea’s president, has declared a weeklong period of national mourning.Context: The tragedy is one of the deadliest peacetime accidents in South Korea’s history. In recent years, it has been eclipsed only by the Sewol ferry sinking in 2014, where more than 300 people died — including 250 high school students.Friends and relatives helped Anna Moroz, 80, salvage what she could from her home in Ukraine.Ivor Prickett for The New York TimesRussia pulls back from grain dealOn Saturday, Russia withdrew from a deal that had allowed grain to be exported from Ukrainian ports, upending an agreement that was intended to alleviate a global food crisis. Yesterday, the U.N. and Turkey pushed to revive the deal, which they helped broker.Russia’s move came hours after a drone attack on its Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, which Russia blamed on Ukraine. Russia said it could no longer ensure the security of cargo ships taking grain from Ukrainian ports and would suspend the agreement’s implementation “for an indefinite period.”The State of the WarGrain Deal: After accusing Ukraine of attacking its ships in Crimea, Russia withdrew from an agreement allowing the export of grain from Ukrainian ports. The move jeopardized a rare case of wartime coordination aimed at lowering global food prices and combating hunger.Turning the Tables: With powerful Western weapons and deadly homemade drones, Ukraine now has an artillery advantage over Russia in the southern Kherson region, erasing what had been a critical asset for Moscow.Fears of Escalation: President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia repeated the unfounded claim that Ukraine was preparing to explode a so-called dirty bomb, as concerns rose in the West that the Kremlin was seeking a pretext to escalate the war.A Coalition Under Strain: President Biden is facing new challenges keeping together the bipartisan, multinational coalition supporting Ukraine. The alliance has shown signs of fraying with the approach of the U.S. midterm elections and a cold European winter.The grain deal, which was signed in July, also aimed to lower food prices. Russia’s move jeopardized a rare case of wartime coordination, which ended a five-month Russian blockade. The deal allowed more than 9.2 million tons of grain and foodstuffs to be exported again. Many were bound for poor countries.Reaction: The U.S. accused Russia of using food as a weapon. “It’s really outrageous to increase starvation,” President Biden said on Saturday. Fighting: With Western weaponry, Ukraine now has a front line advantage in the south. Despite the slog of mud season, its army keeps advancing.Toll: Ukraine’s children face years of trauma.Brazil’s vote is one of Latin America’s most important in decades. Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesBrazilians choose their new presidentVoters headed to the polls yesterday to cast their ballots in a presidential runoff. Polls closed just before this newsletter was sent, and results are still coming. Here are live results and an overview of the race.Voters faced a stark choice after an ugly campaign. Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist, seeks a second term as president. He faces Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the once-incarcerated former leader who vows to revive leftist policies.The vote carries major consequences for the Amazon, and thus the entire planet. Bolsonaro gutted the agencies tasked with protecting the rainforest, leading to increased deforestation. Da Silva has vowed to eradicate illegal logging and mining.It is also a test for democracy. Bolsonaro has spent years attacking Brazil’s democratic institutions, including a sustained effort to undermine its election systems. In so doing, he has destroyed public trust in the elections.What’s next: If Bolsonaro loses, will he accept his defeat?Details: Brazil’s elections chief ordered the head of the country’s highway police to answer allegations that he had ordered traffic stops, particularly of buses transporting voters to the polls, in an effort to suppress turnout.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificDozens of Australians, many of whom are children, remain in the camps.Ivor Prickett for The New York TimesSeventeen Australians have returned home from Islamic State detention camps in northeast Syria, where they had lived since 2019. Dozens remain at the camps.At least 70 people were killed after a suspension bridge collapsed in the western Indian state of Gujarat yesterday.Flooding and landslides left at least 45 people dead in the Philippines.Kazuki Takahashi, who created Yu-Gi-Oh!, died in July. New details have been released: The 60-year-old drowned while trying to save others.Around the WorldElon Musk took charge of Twitter and quickly ordered layoffs. My colleagues analyzed the deal on “Hard Fork,” our podcast.Israel will hold its Parliamentary elections tomorrow. Benjamin Netanyahu is the leading candidate.At least 100 people died in the deadliest terrorist attack in Somalia in five years.The U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband was attacked in their home. He is expected to heal, but the encounter highlights fears of growing political violence in the U.S. Other Big StoriesRishi Sunak, Britain’s new prime minister, married into a secretive $800 million fortune, which might not fit within his party’s views.The U.S. released Guantánamo’s oldest prisoner, a 75-year-old businessman who was held for nearly two decades without being charged with a crime.Census data revealed that more than one in five Canadians is an immigrant. Polls show the nation approves.Tom Brady and Gisele Bündchen divorced after 13 years of marriage.A Morning ReadThis year, parts of Riyadh, the Saudi capital, looked like creatures from a haunted house had escaped and taken over the city.Tamir Kalifa for The New York TimesUntil recently, Saudi Arabia banned Halloween, which was viewed as suspicious and pagan. But this past weekend, the kingdom hosted a government-sponsored “horror weekend” — not strictly speaking a Halloween festival, but certainly conveniently timed.Clowns and goblins filled the streets, and costume shops sold out almost as fast as employees could restock the shelves. “Saudi is changing,” said a young man going as a wizard.UP FOR DEBATEShould daylight saving time end?Mexico City (and most of the rest of Mexico) would stop springing forward and falling back.Marco Ugarte/Associated PressLast week, Mexico’s Senate voted to end daylight saving time for most of the country, prioritizing morning light. In March, the U.S. Senate took the opposite approach when it unanimously passed legislation to make daylight saving time permanent. (The House has not found consensus.)Each side of the debate carries strong opinions. The business community generally supports keeping daylight saving time: Many retailers and outdoor industries say that extra afternoon light can boost sales because people have more time to spend money after work or school.But many scientists believe that doing away with it, as Mexico is poised to do, is better for human health. They argue that aligns more closely with the sun’s progression — and, therefore, with the body’s natural clock.Mexico’s Senate seems to agree. “This new law seeks to guarantee the human right to health and increase safety in the mornings, procure the well-being and productivity of the population, and contribute to saving electric energy,” the body said on Twitter.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookChristopher Simpson for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.Start your week off right with this simple salted-caramel rice pudding for dessert.What to Watch“The Novelist’s Film,” by the South Korean director Hong Sang-soo, is a study in small moments and chance encounters.Tech TipA latecomers’ guide to TikTok.TravelThe next time you’re in Mexico City, tour the former houses of Frida Kahlo, Diego Rivera and Leon Trotsky.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Hair colorer (three letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. Happy Halloween, and see you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Jenna Russell, a longtime reporter at The Boston Globe, will be our next New England bureau chief.Start your week with this narrated long read about animal voyages. And here is Friday’s edition of “The Daily,” on Brazil’s elections.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      There Are Two Americas Now: One With a B.A. and One Without

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      The Republican Party has become crucially dependent on a segment of white voters suffering what analysts call a “mortality penalty.”This penalty encompasses not only disproportionately high levels of so-called deaths of despair — suicide, drug overdoses and alcohol abuse — but also across-the-board increases in several categories of disease, injury and emotional disorder.“Red states are now less healthy than blue states, a reversal of what was once the case,” Anne Case and Angus Deaton, economists at Princeton, argue in a paper they published in April, “The Great Divide: Education, Despair, and Death.”Case and Deaton write that the correlation between Republican voting and life expectancy “goes from plus-0.42 when Gerald Ford was the Republican candidate — healthier states voted for Ford and against Carter — to minus-0.69 in 2016 and –0.64 in 2020. States classified as the least healthy voted for Trump and against Biden.”Case and Deaton contend that the ballots cast for Donald Trump by members of the white working class “are surely not for a president who will dismantle safety nets but against a Democratic Party that represents an alliance between minorities — whom working-class whites see as displacing them and challenging their once solid if unperceived privilege — and an educated elite that has benefited from globalization and from a soaring stock market, which was fueled by the rising profitability of those same firms that were increasingly denying jobs to the working class.”Carol Graham, a senior fellow at Brookings, described the erosion of economic and social status for whites without college degrees in a 2021 paper:From 2005 to 2019, an average of 70,000 Americans died annually from deaths of despair (suicide, drug overdose, and alcohol poisoning). These deaths are concentrated among less than college educated middle-aged whites, with those out of the labor force disproportionately represented. Low-income minorities are significantly more optimistic than whites and much less likely to die of these deaths. This despair reflects the decline of the white working class. Counties with more respondents reporting lost hope in the years before 2016 were more likely to vote for Trump.Lack of hope, in Graham’s view, “is a central issue. The American dream is in tatters and, ironically, it is worse for whites.” America’s high levels of reported pain, she writes, “are largely driven by middle-aged whites. As there is no objective reason that whites should have more pain than minorities, who typically have significantly worse working conditions and access to health care, this suggests psychological pain as well as physical pain.”There are, Graham argues,long-term reasons for this. As blue-collar jobs began to decline from the late 1970s on, those displaced workers — and their communities — lost their purpose and identity and lack a narrative for going forward. For decades whites had privileged access to these jobs and the stable communities that came with them. Primarily white manufacturing and mining communities — in the suburbs and rural areas and often in the heartland — have the highest rates of despair and deaths. In contrast, more diverse urban communities have higher levels of optimism, better health indicators, and significantly lower rates of these deaths.In contrast to non-college whites, Graham continued,minorities, who had unequal access to those jobs and worse objective conditions to begin with, developed coping skills and supportive community ties in the absence of coherent public safety nets. Belief in education and strong communities have served them well in overcoming much adversity. African Americans remain more likely to believe in the value of a college education than are low-income whites. Minority communities based in part on having empathy for those who fall behind, meanwhile, have emerged from battling persistent discrimination.Over the past three years, however, there has been a sharp increase in drug overdose deaths among Black men, Graham noted in an email:The “new” Black despair is less understood and perhaps more complex. A big factor is simply Fentanyl for urban Black men. Plain and simple. But other candidates are Covid and the hit the African American communities took; Trump and the increase of “acceptance” for blatant and open racism; and, for some, George Floyd and continued police violence against blacks. There is also a phenomenon among urban Black males that has to do with longer term despair: nothing to lose, weak problem-solving skills, drug gangs and more.The role of race and gender in deaths of despair, especially drug-related deaths, is complex. Case wrote in an email:Women have always been less likely to kill themselves with drugs or alcohol, or by suicide. However, from the mid-1990s into the 20-teens, for whites without a four-year college degree, death rates from all three causes rose in parallel between men and women. So the level has always been higher for men, but the trend (and so the increase) was very similar between less-educated white men and women. For Blacks and Hispanics the story is different. Deaths of Despair were falling for less educated Black and Hispanic men from the early 1990s to the 20-teens and were constant over that period (at a much lower rate) for Black and Hispanic women without a B.A. After the arrival of Fentanyl as a street drug in 2013, rates started rising for both Black and Hispanic men and women without a B.A., but at a much faster rate for men.In their October 2014 study, “Economic Strain and Children’s Behavior,” Lindsey Jeanne Leininger, a professor at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business, and Ariel Kalil, a professor of public policy at the University of Chicago, found a striking difference in the pattern of behavioral problems among white and Black children from demographically similar families experiencing the financial strains of the 2008 Great Recession:Specifically, we found that economic strain exhibited a statistically significant and qualitatively large association with White children’s internalizing behavior problems and that this relationship was not due to potentially correlated influences of objective measures of adverse economic conditions or to mediating influences of psychosocial context. Furthermore, our data provide evidence that the relationship between economic strain and internalizing problems is meaningfully different across White and Black children. In marked contrast to the White sample, the regression-adjusted relationship between economic strain and internalizing behaviors among the Black sample was of small magnitude and was statistically insignificant.Kalil elaborated on this finding in an email: “The processes through which white and Black individuals experience stress from macroeconomic shocks are different,” she wrote, adding that the “white population, which is more resourced and less accustomed to being financially worried, is feeling threatened by economic shocks in a way that is not very much reflective of their actual economic circumstances. In our study, among Black parents, what we are seeing is basically that perceptions of economic strain are strongly correlated with actual income-to-needs.”This phenomenon has been in evidence for some time.A 2010 Pew Research Center study that examined the effects of the Great Recession on Black and white Americans reported that Black Americans consistently suffered more in terms of unemployment, work cutbacks and other measures, but remained far more optimistic about the future than whites. Twice as many Black as white Americans were forced during the 2008 recession to work fewer hours, to take unpaid leave or switch to part-time, and Black unemployment rose from 8.9 to 15.5 percent from April 2007 to April 2009, compared with an increase from 3.7 to 8 percent for whites.Despite experiencing more hardship, 81 percent of Black Americans agreed with the statement “America will always continue to be prosperous and make economic progress,” compared with 59 percent of whites; 45 percent of Black Americans said the country was still in recession compared with 57 percent of whites. Pew found that 81 percent of the Black Americans it surveyed responded yes when asked “Is America still a land of prosperity?” compared with 59 percent of whites. Asked “will your children’s future standard of living be better or worse than yours?” 69 percent of Black Americans said better, and 17 percent said worse, while 38 percent of whites said better and 29 percent said worse.There are similar patterns for other measures of suffering.In “Trends in Extreme Distress in the United States, 1993-2019,” David G. Blanchflower and Andrew J. Oswald, economists at Dartmouth and the University of Warwick in Britain, note that “the proportion of the U.S. population in extreme distress rose from 3.6 percent in 1993 to 6.4 percent in 2019. Among low-education midlife white persons, the percentage more than doubled, from 4.8 percent to 11.5 percent.”Blanchflower and Oswald point out that “something fundamental appears to have occurred among white, low-education, middle-aged citizens.”Employment prospects play a key role among those in extreme distress, according to Blanchflower and Oswald. A disproportionately large share of those falling into this extreme category agreed with the statement “I am unable to find work.”In her 2020 paper, “Trends in U.S. Working-Age non-Hispanic White Mortality: Rural-Urban and Within-Rural Differences,” Shannon M. Monnat, a professor of sociology at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School, explained that “between 1990-92 and 2016-18, the mortality rates among non-Hispanic whites increased by 9.6 deaths per 100,000 population among metro males and 30.5 among metro females but increased by 70.1 and 65.0 among nonmetro (rural and exurban) males and females, respectively.”Monnat described these differences as a “nonmetro mortality penalty.”For rural and exurban men 25 to 44 over this same 28-year period, she continued, “the mortality rate increased by 70.1 deaths per 100,000 population compared to an increase of only 9.6 among metro males ages 25-44, and 81 percent of the nonmetro increase was due to increases in drugs, alcohol, suicide, and mental/behavioral disorders (the deaths of despair).”The divergence between urban and rural men pales, however, in comparison with women. “Mortality increases among nonmetro females have been startling. The mortality growth among nonmetro females was much larger than among nonmetro males,” especially for women 45 to 64, Monnat writes. Urban white men saw 45-64 deaths rates per 100,000 fall from 850 to 711.1 between 1990 and 2018, while death rates for rural white men of the same age barely changed, 894.8 to 896.6. In contrast, urban white women 45-64 saw their death rate decline from 490.4 to 437.6, while rural white women of that age saw their mortality rate grow from 492.6 to 571.9.In an email, Monnat emphasized the fact that Trump has benefited from a bifurcated coalition:The Trump electorate comprises groups that on the surface appear to have very different interests. On the one hand, a large share of Trump supporters are working-class, live in working-class communities, have borne the brunt of economic dislocation and decline due to economic restructuring. On the other hand, Trump has benefited from major corporate donors who have interests in maintaining large tax breaks for the wealthy, deregulation of environmental and labor laws, and from an economic environment that makes it easy to exploit workers. In 2016 at least, Trump’s victory relied not just on rural and small-city working-class voters, but also on more affluent voters. Exit polls suggested that a majority of people who earned more than $50,000 per year voted for Trump.In a separate 2017 paper, “More than a rural revolt: Landscapes of despair and the 2016 Presidential election,” Monnat and David L. Brown, a sociologist at Cornell, argue:Work has historically been about more than a paycheck in the U.S. American identities are wrapped up in our jobs. But the U.S. working-class (people without a college degree, people who work in blue-collar jobs) regularly receive the message that their work is not important and that they are irrelevant and disposable. That message is delivered through stagnant wages, declining health and retirement benefits, government safety-net programs for which they do not qualify but for which they pay taxes, and the seemingly ubiquitous message (mostly from Democrats) that success means graduating from college.Three economists, David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson of M.I.T., the University of Zurich and Harvard, reported in their 2018 paper, “When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men,” on the debilitating consequences for working-class men of the “China shock” — that is, of sharp increases in manufacturing competition with China:Shocks to manufacturing labor demand, measured at the commuting-zone level, exert large negative impacts on men’s relative employment and earnings. Although losses are visible throughout the earnings distribution, the relative declines in male earnings are largest at the bottom of the distribution.Such shocks “curtail the availability and desirability of potentially marriageable young men along multiple dimensions: reducing the share of men among young adults and increasing the prevalence of idleness — the state of being neither employed nor in school — among young men who remain.”These adverse trends, Autor, Dorn and Hanson report, “induce a differential and economically large rise in male mortality from drug and alcohol poisoning, H.I.V./AIDS, and homicide” and simultaneously “raise the fraction of mothers who are unwed, the fraction of children in single-headed households, and the fraction of children living in poverty.”I asked Autor for his thoughts on the implications of these developments for the Trump electorate. He replied by email:Many among the majority of American workers who do not have a four-year college degree feel, justifiably, that the last three decades of rapid globalization and automation have made their jobs more precarious, scarcer, less prestigious, and lower paid. Neither party has been successful in restoring the economic security and standing of non-college workers (and yes, especially non-college white males). The roots of these economic grievances are authentic, so I don’t think these voters should be denigrated for seeking a change in policy direction. That said, I don’t think the Trump/MAGA brand has much in the way of substantive policy to address these issues, and I believe that Democrats do far more to protect and improve economic prospects for blue-collar workers.There is some evidence that partisanship correlates with mortality rates.In their June 2022 paper, “The Association Between Covid-19 Mortality And The County-Level Partisan Divide In The United States,” Neil Jay Sehgal, Dahai Yue, Elle Pope, Ren Hao Wang and Dylan H. Roby, public health experts at the University of Maryland, found in their study of county-level Covid-19 mortality data from Jan. 1, 2020, through Oct. 31, 2021, that “majority Republican counties experienced 72.9 additional deaths per 100,000 people.”The authors cites studies showing that “counties with a greater proportion of Trump voters were less likely to search for information about Covid-19 and engage in physical distancing despite state-level mandates. Differences in Covid-19 mortality grew during the pandemic to create substantial variation in death rates in counties with higher levels of Trump support.”Sehgal and his colleagues conclude from their analysis that “voting behavior acts as a proxy for compliance with and support for public health measures, vaccine uptake, and the likelihood of engaging in riskier behaviors (for example, unmasked social events and in-person dining) that could affect disease spread and mortality.”In addition, the authors write:Local leaders may be hesitant to implement evidence-based policies to combat the pandemic because of pressure or oversight from state or local elected officials or constituents in more conservative areas. Even if they did institute protective policies, they may face challenges with compliance because of pressure from conservative constituents.For the past two decades, white working-class Americans have faced a series of economic dislocations similar to those that had a devastating impact on Black neighborhoods starting in the 1960s, as the Harvard sociologist William Julius Wilson described them in his 1987 book, “The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, the Underclass, and Public Policy.”How easy would it be to apply Wilson’s description of “extraordinary rates of black joblessness,” disordered lives, family breakdown and substance abuse to the emergence of similar patterns of disorder in white exurban America? How easy to transpose Black with white or inner city and urban with rural and small town?It is very likely, as Anne Case wrote in her email, that the United States is fast approaching a point whereEducation divides everything, including connection to the labor market, marriage, connection to institutions (like organized religion), physical and mental health, and mortality. It does so for whites, Blacks and Hispanics. There has been a profound (not yet complete) convergence in life expectancy by education. There are two Americas now: one with a B.A. and one without.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More