More stories

  • in

    China Building Fire Kills at Least 39, With Others Trapped

    The site in southeastern China housed an internet cafe and an educational center, state media said.A fire in a commercial building in southeastern China killed at least 39 people on Wednesday, as emergency workers raced to rescue people still trapped inside.The fire broke out around 3:30 p.m. local time in Xinyu, a city in Jiangxi Province, in the basement of a building that housed an internet cafe on the ground floor and an educational center upstairs, according to Chinese state media and a local government announcement.A video posted on social media by the Communist Party-affiliated outlet Beijing News showed thick black smoke billowing out of windows.Other videos posted by social media users on Wednesday, of what appeared to be the same building, showed people jumping from upper floors to a mattress on the ground outside, and a boy climbing down a ladder, wearing a backpack.At least nine people were injured, and after 8 p.m., rescue workers were still searching for people inside, according to a post by China Central Television, the state broadcaster, on the social media platform Weibo.In response to the fire, Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, called for “deep reflection” on the tragedy’s cause, state media said. He noted that this was “yet another major production safety accident that has happened recently.”On Friday, a fire at a kindergarten and elementary school dorm in central China’s Henan Province killed 13 people. While the state broadcaster did not identify the victims of that fire, some state-affiliated news media said that they had been in the same third-grade class.A fire at a mall in Xinyu also killed two people in late December.Research was contributed by More

  • in

    ISIS Affiliate Claims Deadly Attack at Political Rally in Pakistan

    The death toll from Sunday’s suicide bombing, which targeted a political rally near the border with Afghanistan, rose to at least 54 people, an official said.The Islamic State affiliate in South Asia claimed responsibility on Monday for a suicide bombing in northwest Pakistan that killed dozens of people and injured about 200 more, in the latest bloody sign of the deteriorating security situation in the country.The death toll from the explosion on Sunday, which targeted a political rally in the Bajaur district near Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan, rose to at least 54 people, Shaukat Abbas, a senior officer at the provincial police’s counterterrorism department, said on Monday.The Islamic State affiliate, known as the Islamic State Khorasan, or ISIS-K, claimed on Monday that a suicide bomber had carried out the attack, characterizing it as part of the group’s war against democracy as a system of government, according to the SITE Intelligence Group.The blast was among the deadliest terrorist attacks in months in Pakistan, where some militant groups operating along the border with Afghanistan have become more active over the past year. The rise in violence represents a grim shift: Since 2014, when security forces carried out a major military operation to flush militants out of Pakistan, the country has experienced relative calm.But several high-profile attacks this year — including a bombing in Peshawar that killed more than 100 people and an hourslong assault on the police headquarters in the port city of Karachi — have sent shock waves across the country, with scenes of bloodshed that seemed to announce militancy’s return to Pakistan.The attacks have raised questions about whether Pakistan’s security establishment can stamp out militancy without the American air and other military support it relied on during the 2014 security operation. The violence has also stoked tensions between Pakistani officials and the Taliban administration in Afghanistan, which the Pakistani authorities have accused of providing haven to some militant groups. Taliban officials have denied that claim.“The attack in Bajaur unquestionably presents a significant escalation of ISK’s growing capacity and aggressive stance in northwest Pakistan — a region which is already home to many other militant factions,” said Amira Jadoon, the co-author of “The Islamic State in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Strategic Alliances and Rivalries,” using another abbreviation for the Islamic State affiliate.“It also shows ISK’s continued ability to access and operate on both sides of the border, as it has done so in the past.”On Monday, funeral processions took place in several villages in the Bajaur district to bury victims of the attack.Khuram Parvez/ReutersAt least three people suspected of being involved in the attack have been arrested so far, the local police chief, Nazir Khan, told news outlets. They were being interrogated by intelligence and law enforcement agencies, he added.On Monday, funeral processions took place in most villages in the Bajaur district as dozens of families gathered to bury victims of the attack. Even those not mourning loved ones were shaken by the attack and its aftermath, residents said.Shakir Ali, a shopkeeper who volunteered to take the injured to the hospital, said the screams and cries echoing across the area after the explosion were still ringing in his head on Monday. In the immediate aftermath of the attack, almost everyone who passed him was covered in blood, he recalled.“It was difficult for us to determine who was injured and who was not,” he said.The attack — among the first by a militant group on a political rally in the country this year — stirred concerns about whether the country’s deteriorating security situation will affect the next general election, expected in the fall.The election is seen as critical to restoring political stability to a country that has been rocked by mass protests and unrest since Imran Khan was forced out as prime minister in a vote of no-confidence in April last year.Security personnel guarding the site of a bomb blast on Monday.Abdul Majeed/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesPaving the way for the election this fall, the current government is expected to dissolve Parliament in August and hand over power to a caretaker government that will oversee the election process. The establishment of a caretaker government is constitutionally required to carry out a general election.While it is unlikely that ISIS-K has the capacity to significantly disrupt the elections, many security experts are concerned that the Pakistani Taliban — a militant group also known as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or the T.T.P. — may try to target campaign rallies or voting sites, analysts say.The T.T.P. — which is an ideological twin and ally of the Taliban in Afghanistan — frequently attacked political rallies during Pakistan’s 2008 and 2013 election seasons and the group has seen a resurgence since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021.“The question is how is the T.T.P. planning to sabotage the coming election season,” said Asfandyar Mir, a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace. “So far, indicators are that it won’t — but that can change.”Salman Masood More

  • in

    Greece Continues Search for Migrants After Crowded Ship Capsizes

    The authorities revised the official toll of the deadly shipwreck down by one, to 78, but there are fears that hundreds of people may be missing.The grim search by Greek authorities for migrants after the country’s deadliest shipwreck in years moved into a second day on Thursday, though the prospects of finding survivors was slim and hundreds were feared to be missing after their fishing ship capsized about 50 miles off the coast.Scores of bodies were recovered from the sea and 104 people were rescued on Wednesday, after their vessel foundered in the Mediterranean Sea, off the southern coast of Greece, five days after setting sail from Libya bound for Italy.As several vessels helped gather the bodies from the sea, the Greek Shipping Ministry lowered the number of confirmed deaths by one, to 78, on Thursday morning after a count at the port of Kalamata, but the full toll is believed to be much higher.Survivors have told Greek officials that as many as 500 people were aboard, according to a Shipping Ministry official, who spoke on a condition of anonymity in keeping with the ministry’s past practice.Panagiotis Nikas, the regional governor for the Peloponnese region, told Greek news outlets on Wednesday that some survivors had suggested as many 750 passengers were on the ship, adding that the claim was being checked.Photographs of the vessel, a fishing trawler, taken by a Greek Coast Guard helicopter on Tuesday showed it to be hugely overcrowded with people none of whom appeared to be wearing life vests.Emergency workers rushed some survivors on stretchers to a nearby tent to receive medical aid.Hellenic Coastguard, via Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesA C-130 transport plane aided the search overnight, according to the ministry, launching flares into the night sky to illuminate the sea and trace any survivors, but no one was found.Officials have conceded that any hopes of finding additional survivors, or even victims, are remote, because the boat sank in one of the deepest spots of the Mediterranean, where the seabed is at a depth of 4,000 meters, or about 2.5 miles.Nevertheless, the efforts continued on Thursday. “There is no plan to stop the search,” Nikolaos Alexiou, a spokesman for the Greek Coast Guard, told state television. “We’re continuing and the search will broaden.”The survivors will be moved to a state camp in Malakasa, north of Athens, as soon as processing by coast guard officials has been completed, the migration ministry said. The authorities were questioning several people from the ship who were believed to be smugglers, state television reported.The survivors, all men, are believed to be from Syria, Egypt and Pakistan. It remained unclear how many women and children might be among the missing.The tragedy unfolded as Greece is preparing for a general election on June 25, and it has prompted political leaders to suspend campaigning as a caretaker government announced three days of national mourning.The migration issue is already very sensitive in Greece, especially in light of the government’s tactics aimed at deterring migration, an approach that has widespread support but has been roundly criticized by rights groups.Greece is a major destination for migrants trying to make their way to Europe, and the sinking was the deadliest such episode off its coast since before 2015, when 70 people died after a boat carrying migrants sank near the island off Lesbos, according to the International Organization for Migration. More

  • in

    Greece Elections: New Democracy on Track to Win Most Votes

    Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s New Democracy party did not win enough votes to form a one-party government. But he appeared to rule out talks to form a coalition, setting the stage for a second vote in weeks.The party of Greece’s conservative prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, was on track to win a decisive victory in the general election on Sunday but fell short of the majority required to lead a one-party government, setting the stage for another ballot within weeks since Mr. Mitsotakis appeared to rule out forming a governing coalition.Mr. Mitsotakis described the preliminary outcome as a “political earthquake” that called for an “experienced hand to the helm” of Greece, and said that any negotiations with fractious potential coalition partners would only lead to a dead end.With 93.7 percent of the votes counted on Sunday night and his party, New Democracy, leading the opposition Syriza by 20 percentage points, Mr. Mitsotakis greeted a crowd of cheering supporters outside his party’s office in Athens.“We kept the country upright and we’ve laid the foundations for a better nation,” he said. “We will fight the next battle together so that at the next elections what we already decided on, an autonomous New Democracy, will be realized.”New Democracy had captured 40.8 percent of the votes by Sunday night, preliminary results showed, after calling on Greeks to opt for economic and political stability over “chaos” in a tense campaign. The center-left Syriza party, led by former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, under whose tenure Greece came close to leaving the eurozone in 2015, landed in second place, with 20.7 percent of the votes. The socialist Pasok-Kinal party took third place, securing 11.6 percent.Mr. Tsipras said in a statement that he had called to congratulate Mr. Mitsotakis on his victory, and that his party would convene to discuss the result given that a second election appeared all but assured.On Monday, when the final result is clear, the leading party will get a mandate to try to form a government. But it appeared most likely that the prime minister will not explore that option, leading to a new election, possibly in June or early July.New Democracy was on track to win 145 seats in the 300-seat Parliament, with 72 seats for Syriza, preliminary results showed. Syriza’s poor performance spurred speculation in the Greek news media about the center-left party’s future.Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis addressed supporters at his party’s headquarters in Athens on Sunday.Thanassis Stavrakis/Associated Press“It reflects the utter collapse of Syriza’s strategy, its perpetual rightward drift, a hegemonic position on the left that deepened confusion and demoralization,” said Seraphim Seferiades, a professor of politics and history at Panteion University in Athens.He also noted the high abstention in the vote, over 40 percent: Turnout stood at 60 percent, preliminary results showed.Three factors added to the ambiguity of the election on Sunday: the one in 10 undecided voters; the roughly 440,000 young people who were eligible to vote for the first time; and the 3 percent of the electorate that had backed a party founded by the jailed spokesman of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, which was banned from running.The absence of an outright winner had been expected, since the election was conducted under a system of simple proportional representation, which makes it hard for a single party to take power. Any second vote would be held under a different system, which grants bonus seats to the winning party, giving New Democracy a better chance of forming an independent government.In his campaign speech in Athens on Friday night, Mr. Mitsotakis pointed to his government’s success in increasing growth (now at twice the eurozone average), attracting investment and bolstering the country’s defenses amid a testy period with neighboring Turkey.“This is not the time for experiments that lead nowhere,” he said, adding that achieving an investment grade rating, which would allow Greece to lower its borrowing costs, required a stable government.Mr. Mitsotakis was also unapologetic about Greece’s tough stance on migration, which has included heightened border controls and has led to a 90 percent drop in migrant arrivals since 2015. While his government has come under fire by human rights groups for illegally pushing back migrants at sea and creating camps with prisonlike conditions, many Greeks have welcomed the reduced influx. Migrants overwhelmed Greece’s resources at the peak of Europe’s migration crisis.“Greece has borders, and those borders must be guarded,” Mr. Mitsotakis declared on Friday to a crowd of cheering supporters waving Greek flags.Former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, leader of the leftist Syriza party, at a polling station in Athens on Sunday.Aris Messinis/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Tsipras, for his part, had campaigned for change. He highlighted a perceived abuse of power by the current administration, including a wiretapping scandal, and drew attention to the rising cost of living, which opinion polls show is most voters’ key concern.Before casting his ballot on Sunday, Mr. Tsipras called on Greeks to “leave behind an arrogant government that doesn’t feel the needs of the many.”His message was convincing to Elisavet Dimou, 17, who voted for the first time on Sunday in a central Athens school. She said she had been swayed by Syriza’s promise of “change” and “justice.”“Syriza made mistakes, too, but they didn’t spy on half the country,” she said, referring to reports that the wiretapping scandal had swept up dozens of politicians, journalists and entrepreneurs.Another factor in her choice of Syriza was the fatal train crash in central Greece in February that killed 57 people, including many students. “They had their whole lives ahead of them, and they died because those in power didn’t care enough to fix the trains,” she said.Public outrage over the crash briefly dented New Democracy’s lead in opinion polls, but that edged back up as supporters were apparently comforted by promises of continued stability and prosperity.One supporter, Sakis Farantakis, a 54-year-old hair salon owner, said: “They’re far from perfect, but it’s the only safe choice. We’ve moved on; why go backwards to uncertainty?”Mr. Mitsotakis has argued that a one-party government would be preferable to a coalition deal to ensure stability and reassure investors. Economic growth has taken hold in Greece after a decade-long financial crisis that ended in 2018.Voters outside a polling station in Athens on Sunday.Petros Giannakouris/Associated PressHe has little choice of partners. The socialist Pasok party had been regarded as the only realistic candidate for a coalition with New Democracy. But Mr. Mitsotakis’s admission last year that Greece’s state surveillance agency had spied on Pasok’s leader, Nikos Androulakis, strained ties between the men and cast a shadow over any prospects for cooperation.A leftist-led administration had been another possibility. Syriza had been courting Pasok for a coalition that would most likely require a third party, probably Mera25. That party, led by Yanis Varoufakis, Mr. Tsipras’s former finance minister, appeared not to have gained a foothold in Parliament with most of the votes counted.Mr. Androulakis had kept his intentions unclear, declaring that both parties were unreliable and that neither Mr. Mitsotakis nor Mr. Tsipras should lead any coalition government. Mr. Androulakis called to congratulate Mr. Mitsotakis late Sunday. More

  • in

    Your Tuesday Briefing: Texas Reels From Mass Shootings

    Also, evacuation orders in occupied Ukraine.A memorial to shooting victims outside a shopping mall near Dallas, Texas.Cooper Neill for The New York TimesTexas shaken by mass shootingsThirteen people have been killed in mass shootings in Texas in the past two weeks. The mass murders have fueled a new openness to gun regulation among some Texans, but Republican lawmakers have shown no interest in taking action to address the violence.In fact, Texas has increased access to guns during the past two years even as the state endured more than a dozen mass killings, including a shooting at a school in Uvalde, where a gunman killed 19 children and two adults. The state did away with its permit requirements to carry handguns. It also lowered the age to carry handguns to 18 from 21.While less supportive of stricter gun regulation than Americans as a whole, Texans support some limited gun control measures, polls show. Over the past few years views on guns among Republican voters in Texas have appeared to moderate somewhat.But Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, said that there would be no new effort by his administration to limit access to firearms, because it would not work.Recent shootings: On Sunday, a gunman killed eight people in a mall outside Dallas, before the police killed him. The gunman may have espoused white supremacist ideology; authorities are examining a social media profile, rife with hate-filled rants against women and Black people, that they believe belonged to him. A week earlier, five people were killed after they asked their neighbor to stop shooting in his front yard.The national picture: A nonprofit group has counted more than 200 mass shootings in the U.S. this year.Russian shelling damaged this building in the Zaporizhzhia region.Andriy Andriyenko/Associated PressRussia prepares for a counteroffensiveWith heavy fighting expected very soon, Russian officials in some occupied areas of Ukraine have ordered evacuations. But some Ukrainians there are staying, and residents described an atmosphere of confusion, defiance and scarcity.About 70,000 people were expected to move from the Zaporizhzhia region after officials issued evacuation orders for 18 towns and villages. The region is one of the areas along the long front line where Ukraine could try to break through the Russian defenses.But while the evacuation was described as mandatory, there appeared to be little effort to force people to leave. In Zaporizhzhia, in fact, few people appeared to be heeding the orders. More than a dozen people there, and in the Kherson region, told our colleagues that gas stations were running dry, grocery store shelves were emptying and A.T.M.s were out of cash.Fighting: In Zaporizhzhia, there was no indication of a Russian withdrawal, Ukrainian military officials and Western military analysts said. Instead, Russia’s troops are expanding defensive fortifications — a sign that they are digging in for coming battles.Other updates from the war:Russia launched a large wave of attack drones at Kyiv overnight. Ukraine said it had shot all of them down. Russia’s celebrations for Victory Day today have been scaled back because of security concerns. President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to address the nation.Investigators inspected the scene of the deadly hospital fire in Beijing.Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesChina hospital fire exposes elder care shortfallA fire at a hospital in southern Beijing last month left at least 29 dead, many of them older people with disabilities who had been at the facility for months, and in some cases years. The hospital was not licensed to provide long-term elder care.The tragedy exposed a serious problem: the country’s supply of nursing home beds has not kept pace with its rapidly aging population. The authorities have recognized the urgency of addressing the shortage, but many obstacles remain.The stigma against retirement facilities abounds in a culture that emphasizes children’s duties toward their parents. Public facilities have long waiting lists, and private ones can be prohibitively expensive. In addition, getting a facility licensed to offer elder care in the first place is a complicated bureaucratic process, leading some private companies to operate underground.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificA local police officer said the boat was “overcrowded.” Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAt least 22 people, many of them children, died in the Indian state of Kerala when a tourist boat capsized.China’s foreign minister met with the U.S. ambassador to China in Beijing yesterday, a sign of a possible thaw in relations.Other Big StoriesAs Britain’s coronation celebrations ended, there were signs that both the nation and its royal family were preparing for a new era.Israel’s court crisis is at the front line of a longstanding dispute between ultra-Orthodox Jews and those who support religious pluralism and secularism.Floods and landslides have killed more than 400 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo. More rain is expected in the coming days.Wildfires have burned almost 1 million acres in Western Canada.Here is King Charles’s official portrait. The photographer had just minutes to capture the image.A Morning ReadCalla Kessler for The New York TimesFor canine experts, an invitation to be a judge at the Westminster Dog Show is an honor and a serious responsibility. In all, more than 2,500 dogs are competing, with the Best in Show prize to be awarded today in New York City.“It’s harder to become a dog judge than a brain surgeon, to tell you the truth,” a veteran judge said.ARTS AND IDEASDancers practiced in Hawaii last month.Brendan George Ko for The New York TimesPreserving the “heartbeat” of HawaiiIn the imaginations of many outside Hawaii, hula may conjure images of coconut bras and cellophane skirts, a misunderstanding perpetuated by pop cultural representations in film and television.But hula is an ancient and often sacred dance, one of the ways Native Hawaiians documented their history, mythology, religion and knowledge. And the Merrie Monarch Festival is hula’s Olympics.For the last 60 years, the festival, held in the sleepy town of Hilo, has helped reclaim Hawaii’s native culture, language and identity. The festivities honor King David Kalakaua, who assumed the throne of Hawaii in 1871, and is credited with reviving many ancient practices, most notably, hula, which he called “the heartbeat of the Hawaiian people.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookRyan Liebe for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne.Lime and habaneros make this saltfish buljol, a Caribbean cod dish, taste spiky and bright.What to WatchIn “Slava Ukraini,” Bernard-Henri Lévy documents the war in the second half of 2022.What to Read“King: A Life” is the first major biography of Martin Luther King, Jr., in decades.ParentingTips to help a teen with insomnia.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Pig food (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you tomorrow. — Amelia and JustinP.S. The Times won two Pulitzers for our reporting in Ukraine and on Jeff Bezos.“The Daily” is on the U.S. Supreme Court.We welcome your feedback. You can reach us at briefing@nytimes.com. More

  • in

    In Erdogan’s Turkey, a Building System Fatally Weakened by Corruption

    The building began convulsing at 4:17 a.m. Firat Yayla was awake in bed, scrolling through videos on his phone. His mother was asleep down the hall.The region along Turkey’s border with Syria was known for earthquakes, but this apartment complex was new, built to withstand disaster. It was called Guclu Bahce, or Mighty Garden. Mr. Yayla’s own cousin had helped build it. He and his business partner had boasted that the complex could withstand even the most powerful tremor.So, as the earth heaved for more than a minute, Mr. Yayla, 21, and his 62-year-old mother, Sohret Guclu, a retired schoolteacher, remained inside.At that very moment, though, Mr. Yayla’s cousin, the developer, was leaping for safety from a second-story balcony.Sohret Guclu, a retired schoolteacher, was asleep in her home in Antakya, Turkey, when the quake hit.via Firat YaylaWhat Mr. Yayla and his mother had not known was that the system to ensure that buildings were safely constructed to code had been tainted by money and politics. That system prioritized speed over rules and technical expertise.A New York Times investigation found that a developer won zoning approval for the project after donating more than $200,000 to a local soccer club, where the mayor is an honorary president. Then, when residents raised alarms that the blueprints did not match what had been built, they received no satisfying reply from the local government. The building inspector said that, even after the project had failed its inspection, the developers used political influence to get the doors open.The apartment complex, in the southern Turkish city of Antakya, was a concrete and stone representation of a patronage system that has flourished under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he has propelled a construction boom across Turkey for the past two decades.Undeterred by warnings that the breakneck development lacked sufficient engineering oversight, officials in the capital, Ankara, gave local politicians more power to issue construction licenses for large projects without scrutiny from independent professionals.Basic suggestions never took off — that civil engineers should have to pass a certification exam, for instance.Rescue workers at the site of the collapsed Guclu Bahce building. About 65 people died there.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesThat building spree turned middle-class landowners like the Guclus, for whom the Guclu Bahce complex was named, into developers and landlords. Mr. Erdogan, who will stand for re-election on May 14, used construction as a vessel for economic growth and a symbol of Turkey’s progress. Local politicians from all parties benefited from the jobs, housing and off-the-books payments that commonly flowed from it all.Mr. Erdogan’s office referred questions to the environmental ministry, which did not respond to requests for comment.The Feb. 6 earthquake revealed the shaky foundation on which so much growth was built. More than 50,000 people died as buildings toppled, crumbled or pancaked. Guclu Bahce, the mighty earthquake-proof complex, was among them. An estimated 65 people died there.“So many died because they were told that the safest place was inside, and they should not try to leave during an earthquake,” said Fatma Oguz, whose sister died in the collapse.For the Guclu family, several of whom lived in the building, the collapse created a fatal rift. Survivors have turned on each other amid a lawsuit, a criminal investigation and a bitter search for answers:Were the buildings doomed to fall by nature of a powerful earthquake? Or did someone cut corners? Who can be held accountable in a system in which blueprints cannot be trusted and nobody agrees on whether the building passed inspection? The inspector says somebody forged his signature. It is unclear if the final project was up to code, and the developers cannot agree on who actually built anything.As the building shook in February, Mr. Yayla called out to his mother to stay in her room and get on the floor next to her bed. He did the same. They would ride this out safely.Then came a fierce thud, and the columns holding up the bedroom ceiling snapped.‘Money From Our Friends’Family members say the land, covered in fig trees, had been theirs for three generations.By 2015, buildings were popping up all around, a testament to a Turkish economy that had been growing about 7 percent a year.Mehmet Guclu, a young developer with a civil engineering degree, approached his relatives with a plan. Look around, he told them. Somebody’s going to develop this parcel. Better to keep it in the family, to be landlords, to make money.“He convinced us that he’d build the most magnificent project in our family name,” said Yusuf Guclu, another cousin who lived in the complex. He said that Mehmet had promised to protect against the earthquakes everyone in the region knew to expect.Mehmet Guclu, then in his 30s, was a charismatic striver with a luxe aesthetic, known for incorporating sleek finishes and expensive materials like marble. He had already built some of the tallest buildings in Antakya.The extended family had dreamed of exactly this opportunity for years.The complex was to be a centerpiece of the community — five towers, complete with luxury apartments, retail shops, a pool and a high-end gym.Mehmet’s career had taken off quickly, in part because of Turkey’s low barriers to entry for civil engineering graduates. Unlike in the United States and United Kingdom, graduates in Turkey do not need to pass certification exams or complete on-the-job training to become an engineer. Architectural trade groups have called for such requirements for years.The Guclu Bahce complex in May 2020, before residents moved in. The development attracted doctors, teachers, judges and politicians, some of whom bought multiple properties as investments.Google Maps“University educates you. It doesn’t train you,” said Mustafa Erdik, an earthquake engineering professor at Bogazici University in Istanbul. “We have to bring in professional engineering.”Getting a project started often hinges on unwritten rules that can be as important as technical expertise. In this part of southern Turkey, for example, contractors have known for years that a donation to the local soccer club can move a project along, said Hikmet Cincin, the former head of the soccer club. Antakya’s mayor at the time, Lutfu Savas, serves as the club’s honorary president.After discussions with that mayor, Mehmet Guclu gave the club more than half a million lira, more than $200,000 at the time, according to a person involved in the construction process who spoke on condition of anonymity because of an ongoing investigation.Mr. Savas denied profiting from Guclu Bahce’s construction and said the donation had not been tied to the project. “If we ask for money from our friends,” he said of gifts to the soccer club, “it’s for the benefit of everyone.”He called himself an honest politician in a corrupt system. He said developers commonly made payments to circumvent bureaucratic approvals. Most build whatever they want and assume it will be approved, he said. He blamed Mr. Erdogan and his political party for fostering this culture.But Mr. Savas, himself a former member of Mr. Erdogan’s party, was adamant that was not the case with Guclu Bahce.Mr. Savas says he has little memory of the particulars. What is clear is that the project rolled along in the following years, and the foundation was laid in summer 2017.But the earth in that part of Turkey is not ideal for building, particularly in an earthquake zone, said Serkan Koc, a member of the Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects.“These areas shouldn’t have been turned into construction zones,” he said. Soft soil, for example, will amplify an earthquake. Mr. Koc said Turkish environmental officials should have assessed the whole area before the building boom.“Although the ministry had the authority to inspect, they didn’t” he said. The environmental ministry did not respond to requests for comment.As Mr. Guclu’s new project moved forward, the only limitations seemed to be financial. Soon after the foundation was poured, his money dried up. He turned to a prominent developer, Servet Altas, to help see it through.Mr. Altas became the public face of the project. His initials, in red and blue, would later adorn the low wall ringing the complex.Sales PitchSohret Guclu had been eager for a steady income to supplement her modest state pension. So she swapped her land deeds for ownership of six apartments and a retail storefront.She had raised two boys in an old, crumbling apartment building. Her new home was to be a four-bedroom unit with an airy living room and kitchen — one of the largest in the complex.Guclu Bahce’s apartments were among the region’s most expensive, costing as much as $160,000. But Mr. Altas promised upscale amenities and unparalleled safety, former residents said.“If there were an earthquake right now, I would run inside,” Mr. Altas repeatedly said, recalled Ertugrul Sahbaz, a building manager for the complex.Guclu Bahce attracted doctors, teachers, judges and politicians. Songul Oguz and her husband bought a $117,000 apartment after a sales agent said that the building’s strong foundation and reinforced steel bars could withstand even a 10-magnitude earthquake, Ms. Oguz’s sister recalled. It would take 10 days for Ms. Oguz’s body to be pulled from the wreckage.Mr. Altas, wearing a plaid jacket and bow tie, joined government officials for a jubilant opening ceremony in late 2019. They smiled and posed with a pair of 10-foot gold scissors that were later recorded by Guinness World Records as the world’s largest. Mr. Altas thanked Mr. Guclu for his engineering work and his own son for working as one of the architects.Servet Altas, center, at a ribbon-cutting ceremony during the opening of the apartment complex.Mehmet Bayrak/Hatay-IhaFew have argued that these developers knowingly put people in deadly buildings. Mr. Guclu’s own family lived there, after all, as did Mr. Altas’s son. Turkey deemed Mr. Guclu a qualified engineer, and the local government — measured by the number of officials at the grand opening — supported the project.But the chest-thumping and fanfare were premature. The buildings failed a final inspection, according to court testimony. The nature of the violations is murky, but Ismail Ozturk, a building inspector, testified this year that his company had raised concerns with the local authorities.Mr. Ozturk testified that the contractors had leveraged “close connections” in the city government to overcome the failed inspection. The city mayor at the time, Ismail Kimyeci, who belongs to Mr. Erdogan’s party, denied any special treatment. He said the government’s final approval had been a formality. “The inspection firm plays the most important role here,” Mr. Kimyeci said.Mr. Ozturk’s signature does appear on a certification document. Through his lawyer, he said it had been forged.In a functioning system, there would be no ambiguity about who had approved a project. But Turkey’s system is built on ambiguity. The Erdogan government has, for decades, weakened independent, expert construction oversight and fought proposals to toughen standards.Turkey’s chamber of civil engineers, for example, has argued for years that experienced engineers are stretched too thin to adequately supervise construction projects. The group has called for every project to get a dedicated engineer. That idea, which could have slowed down construction, went nowhere. The Erdogan government sued the group in 2015, blocking it from issuing its own, stricter certifications for engineers.Lawmakers also privatized the building inspection process, sidelining Turkey’s engineering and architectural union. And while the government in 2019 eliminated a rule allowing contractors to pick their inspectors, mayors still hold power to push past potential issues.Guclu Bahce’s opening was delayed. Discrepancies existed between the blueprints and what was built, Mr. Ozturk said in testimony after the earthquake. Some former residents, too, said that they had picked up on such differences and sent a letter to the city raising concerns.One resident said the dispute centered on the very building in which Mr. Yayla slept the night of the earthquake — the first to collapse. The resident said that the building had featured an extra floor, a penthouse with a terrace that had not appeared in the plans.The resident, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid being dragged into a criminal and civil dispute, said he had helped broker a meeting between Mr. Altas and the city’s current mayor, Izzettin Yilmaz, to find a solution.Mr. Yilmaz, a member of Mr. Erdogan’s party, acknowledged in an interview that he had met with Mr. Altas. But he said the purpose was to tell the contractor that he was not interested in taking bribes. Gossip was swirling, he said, and he wanted to make things clear: “I told him: ‘No one requested a payment from you.’”Through his lawyer, though, Mr. Altas, denied meeting with the mayor. What’s more, Mr. Altas — who took credit at the opening ceremony for building the complex — now denies involvement with the construction or the planning. That was Mehmet Guclu’s responsibility, he said.Despite claiming no involvement, Mr. Altas said he was certain that the complex matched the blueprints.There is no indication in Mr. Ozturk’s testimony that anything was done to assess the design changes. Residents said the city promised to investigate, but they never heard back.Whether this discrepancy played any role in Guclu Bahce’s collapse and whether the inspection was adequate are among many questions being asked in the government’s criminal investigation and a family lawsuit.But the city ultimately awarded occupancy permits and residents finally moved into their apartments in 2021. Guclu Bahce sprang to life, with a health club, a home goods store and a chicken shop.For almost two years, nobody looked back or gave further thought to the construction process.Cries in the DarknessLying on the floor next to his bed, Firat Yayla thought immediately of his cousin’s assurances about the building’s sturdiness. His confidence lasted less than a minute, though, until he heard the sound of crumbling concrete.The wall next to him was caving in.As the 7.8-magnitude earthquake continued for about 90 seconds, the building fell sideways. Steel bars knifed out from the concrete, and he began slipping toward them.The lights went out, and Mr. Yayla was sure he was going to die.The next thing he registered was the sound of car alarms. His foot was wedged in a crack and he couldn’t move under the weight of a giant wall. He could barely breathe but managed to call into the darkness.“Mom!” he shouted. “Are you OK?”She called back. “Firat! Firat! Firat!”But her cries weakened, and then went quiet.“Please help me!” he shouted over and over.A resident helped free Mr. Yayla from the rubble. He survived without serious injuries. Mehmet Guclu survived his jump from the balcony with little more than an injured finger.Firat Yayla, 21, was rescued without serious injuries from the ruins of Guclu Bahce. His mother did not make it.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesSohret Guclu died, along with more than five dozen other residents.Members of the Guclu family have sued the contractors and the inspection company, alleging construction flaws. Among those they accuse of wrongdoing is Mehmet Guclu, the cousin on whom they had pinned so many hopes.Sohret’s brother, Yusuf Guclu, said family members were angry at a system of back-scratching and favor-trading that had papered over potential problems.That system had worked in his family’s favor. The Guclus had lived the Turkish dream, converting their land into a cash cow thanks to a relative’s expertise and connections. Now, Yusuf’s sister was dead and his family was accepting donated clothing.“We’ve lost everything,” he said.Mr. Altas was arrested and jailed pending the outcome of the investigation. He has not been charged with a crime. Through his lawyer, he said he had only bankrolled the project.Mr. Ozturk, the inspector, has also been arrested but not charged. He denies signing off on the project.And, in a meeting with The Times, Mr. Guclu appeared shellshocked. He said he would consider speaking publicly about the building, the lawsuit and his family.But with a warrant out for his arrest, Mr. Guclu soon stopped returning messages.The last time he was in contact, he was working on a government construction project — part of Mr. Erdogan’s well-publicized plan to rebuild the region swiftly.The Guclu Bahce complex, which fell sideways, after the quake. Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesBeril Eski More

  • in

    Will This Earthquake Be Erdogan’s Undoing?

    ADIYAMAN, Turkey — Beneath each fresh mound in this rapidly expanding graveyard lies a tragedy. One morning at dawn, Zeki Karababa told me about his.Karababa’s brother, Hamit; Hamit’s wife, Fatma; and two children, Ahmet, 10, and Evra, 3, had been crushed when their apartment building crumbled in the earthquake.But that was just the beginning.“For three days there were no professional rescuers,” Karababa told me. By the time they found his relatives, all four were dead.“I took the bodies with my bare hands,” he said, weeping. “Nobody came to help us.”It is a refrain I heard over and over in the week I spent traversing southeastern Turkey last month. The country is struggling to recover from an earthquake whose wrath defies superlatives: 50,000 dead in Turkey and Syria and countless families homeless. The World Bank estimates that the quake caused $34.2 billion in physical damage in Turkey, or roughly 4 percent of the country’s G.D.P.Turkey’s government, led by the increasingly autocratic President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has tried to portray the unbearable losses as the inevitable result of a biblical catastrophe that no one could have prepared for. But few people I spoke to were buying that.“There is nothing natural about this disaster,” Ali Aslan, a volunteer rescue worker in Adiyaman, told me. “The state failed these people. They didn’t have to die like this.”In all of the death and destruction, nothing has been shaken more thoroughly than the Turkish people’s faith in their government. The quake has undermined Erdogan’s strongman image and exposed the core contradiction of autocratic rule: A government that insists on its own omnipotence and competence will inevitably disappoint when it is nowhere to be seen in the face of disaster. The implicit trade — freedom for safety and security — begins to look like a very bad bargain indeed.This is not the first time the Turkish people have had to confront this reality. For generations, Turkish citizens had been told that the government — “devlet baba,” or father state — would keep them safe. Few people have gotten more out of this promise than Erdogan. He rose to power in the aftermath of Turkey’s last devastating earthquake, which hit near Istanbul in 1999 and killed more than 17,000 people. Just as they did last month, victims lay under the rubble for days awaiting rescue from a government that showed up too late or not at all.“I am not saying that the civil defense organization collapsed,” a Turkish lawmaker said at the time. “It did not exist. I saw that there was not the slightest bit of preparation.”Survivors of the earthquake stand in line to get aid at a distribution point in Adiyaman.Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York TimesThe government response was “a declaration of bankruptcy for the Turkish political and economic system,” a cabinet member declared in a speech. “All ideological arguments were flattened by the earthquake,” he said. “Lying under the ruins is the Turkish political and administrative system.”The state’s compact with the Turkish people had been broken. The disastrous response was seen by many as a result of the corrupt governance and decadent indifference of the elite, and it led to the eventual defeat of the secular, nationalist establishment that had held power in Ankara since the founding of the Turkish state. Erdogan had been Istanbul’s mayor and was a loud critic of the government at the time. His new political party, the Justice and Development Party, took power, led by pious business owners who said they wanted to improve the lot of the average citizen, not line their own pockets.But more than 20 years have passed, and now the tables have turned. If it took roughly eight decades for the old elite to wear out their welcome with corruption and overreach, Erdogan and his party have achieved the same ignominy in two.“In any modern setting, when something bad happens to you, you expect the state to show up,” said Selim Koru, a leading analyst of Turkish affairs. “Somebody is supposed to answer the call. And when that doesn’t happen, people just get very, very upset.”There are lots of very angry people in Turkey right now. “Lies, lies and more lies, it has been 20 years, resign,” Turkish football fans recently shouted.It wasn’t supposed to be this way.Erdogan and his party came to power promising good governance and public safety in the aftermath of the Istanbul quake. His government embarked on a frenzy of building, and construction supercharged the Turkish economy. Per capita G.D.P. nearly tripled between 2003 and its peak in 2013. In just about every city, towers of apartment blocks mushroomed. Cranes dotted the skylines.But many of those buildings held deadly secrets that only now have spilled out. Idris Bedirhanoglu, a professor of civil engineering at Dicle University in southern Turkey, explained to me how contractors routinely cut corners and the government let them get away with it. They might skimp on cement or substitute smooth river stones for commercially made crushed gravel, making for a weaker aggregate. A builder might put in thinner rebar.In 2018 Erdogan extended what was known as “zoning amnesty” to buildings that did not meet stringent code requirements. The action was intended as an election year sop to voters who had expanded their homes and businesses illegally, and he touted this in remarks he gave in the city of Kahramanmaras. That city would be one of the hardest hit by this year’s earthquake.What’s left of an area in Hatay, Turkey, after the quake.Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York TimesErdogan’s rise to power after the 1999 Istanbul disaster was paralleled by a surge in civic activity. Many people felt abandoned by a paternalistic government. Turkish intellectuals and activists formed and bolstered their own civil society organizations aimed at helping one another through all manner of difficulties. A lot of the organizing was done by professional associations of architects and engineers and others worried about not just building safety but also the use of public space and the environmental impacts of the building frenzy that accompanied Erdogan’s rise. These groups did not want a new, paternalistic state to take the place of the old one. They wanted greater participation in a truly democratic civic sphere.In Erdogan’s first decade in power, he was broadly hailed as a champion of openness and democracy. Turkey was seeking European Union membership and burnishing its democratic credentials. Erdogan emphasized freedom of religion, which had been repressed in the old secular regime, and freedom of expression. Most critically, he managed to contain Turkey’s military and all but eliminate its meddling in political life.But ultimately Erdogan began refashioning the old centralized state as an even more powerful instrument that he alone could wield. Over the past decade, and with increasing speed since a 2016 coup plot was put down, Erdogan has squeezed civil society groups, brought the independent press to heel and prosecuted his political opponents. He has steadily accrued power, culminating in a 2017 referendum that moved Turkey from a parliamentary system to a strong executive system, giving him greater control over the judiciary and legislature.He centralized disaster relief under a new government agency known as AFAD, and in a decision that calls to mind George W. Bush’s appointment of the head of the International Arabian Horse Association to lead FEMA two years before Hurricane Katrina, Erdogan named a theologian with little experience in disaster relief to head AFAD’s relief efforts, according to local media reports.Erdogan has joined a growing club of elected autocrats who came to power in truly democratic elections only to slowly insulate themselves from political competition. For such men there is no need to declare oneself the leader for life — it is much better to follow the frog-in-boiling-water approach. Bit by bit, destroy the independence of institutions, civil society, the media. Drain the legislature of its oversight power. Bend the judiciary to your will. Use the law to remove popular competitors from the playing field of politics. Slowly, then all at once, you are the only person who can win an election.Zeki Karababa mourns the death of his brother Hamit and Hamit’s wife and children, all killed when their apartment building collapsed in the earthquake.Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York TimesIt is happening in India and in Hungary, and many feared that Brazil was headed in this direction, until the last election. The natural end point of this process — unfettered one-man rule despite regular elections — is on display most tragically in Russia, where a madman who answers to no one controls what is reportedly the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. But Civicus, an organization that tracks the health of civil society across the globe, gives Turkey the same rating as Russia: repressed.In the concentration of this power, however, lie the seeds of destruction. If the president controls all the levers of power, who else can he blame when the response to a disaster goes awry? In a world where we expect more disasters, not fewer, this is an extraordinary vulnerability.“To build his strongman rule he weakened institutions, and those weak institutions came back to haunt him,” said Gonul Tol, director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute. “It really undermined his ability to govern and deliver.”It would be foolish to try to predict with any certainty how the earthquake and its aftermath will affect Erdogan’s political fortunes. The country needs rebuilding, and Erdogan is nothing if not a committed builder. Dueling polls disagree about whether his popularity has dipped since the quake.Erdogan also has lots of friends on the global stage. His handling of the cataclysm on his doorstep in Syria, which could easily have undone a less savvy leader, has raised Turkey’s stature, making him ever more indispensable in a new, multipolar world. Turkey is a NATO member that nevertheless has warming ties with Russia, making it a crucial and sometimes frustrating player in the Ukraine crisis.But as Erdogan well knows, disaster changes the trajectory of history in sudden and unexpected ways. The country is in the midst of an economic crisis, in part driven by Erdogan’s highly unorthodox policy of keeping interest rates low despite inflation soaring at one point beyond 85 percent. A poll before the earthquake found that more than 70 percent of young Turks want to leave the country, and that percentage is certain to rise. Even before the quake, Erdogan’s poll numbers were slipping.Meanwhile, the fractured Turkish opposition has become more united. New polling numbers reported this week show a double-digit lead for the opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. He has pledged to return the country to its parliamentary system and decentralize power.Last week, Erdogan indicated that elections would happen on schedule. Right now, Turkey simmers with grief and rage. The last time there was a massive quake, that grief and rage were channeled into the possibility of a new compact between citizen and state in Turkey and a rejection of the centralized, autocratic style of the previous regime. If Erdogan and his party, despite a promising start, have crushed that dream, the elections in May, assuming they are allowed to proceed freely and fairly, could offer another rare chance for the Turkish people to try again.“I think this is the last exit for Turkish democracy,” Gonul Tol said. “The stakes are really high.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

  • in

    Anger Over Quake Response Challenges Erdogan Ahead of Election

    A furor is building among some survivors over the government’s handling of the crisis. “I have been voting for this government for 20 years, and I’m telling everyone about my anger,” said one. “I will never forgive them.”GAZIANTEP, Turkey — A powerful earthquake struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, killing more than 17,000 people, exposing government incompetence and fueling an economic crisis. Amid the turmoil, a young, charismatic politician rode a wave of public anger to become prime minister in 2003.That politician was Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Now, as president, Mr. Erdogan faces challenges similar to those that brought down his predecessors — posing what is perhaps the greatest threat of his two decades in power to his political future.The deadliest earthquake to strike Turkey in almost a century killed at least 20,000 people this past week, with the bodies of countless others still buried in the rubble. It hit after a year of persistently high inflation that has impoverished Turkish families, leaving many with scarce resources to bounce back.The quake’s aftermath has highlighted how much Mr. Erdogan has reshaped the Turkish state, analysts said. Critics accuse him of pushing the country toward autocracy by weakening civil rights and eroding the independence of state institutions, like the Foreign Ministry and the central bank. And in a series of moves aimed at undercutting his rivals and centralizing control, he has restricted institutions like the army that could have helped with the earthquake response while stocking others with loyalists.Mr. Erdogan acknowledged on Friday that his government’s initial response to the disaster had been slow, and anger was building among some survivors, a sentiment that could hamper his bid to remain in power in elections expected on May 14.“I have been voting for this government for 20 years, and I’m telling everyone about my anger,” said Mikail Gul, 53, who lost five family members in a building collapse. “I will never forgive them.”Residents searched for their relatives in a collapsed building in Kahramanmaras, near the epicenter of the quake, on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesMr. Erdogan assessed the earthquake damage in Kahramanmaras on Wednesday.Adem Altan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe president, who faced harsh criticism in 2021 over his government’s failure to control disastrous wildfires, has long portrayed himself as a leader in touch with the common citizen. He visited communities hit hard by the quake in recent days. Dressed in black, his face grim, he visited the wounded and comforted people who had lost their homes and emphasized the magnitude of the crisis.“We are face to face with one of the greatest disasters in our history,” he said on Friday during a visit to Adiyaman Province. “It is a reality that we could not intervene as fast as we wished.”The 7.8 magnitude earthquake — the most powerful in Turkey in decades — and hundreds of aftershocks toppled buildings along a 250-mile-long swath in the south, destroying thousands of buildings and causing billions of dollars in damage. Across the border in Syria, nearly 4,000 dead have been counted, a toll that is expected to rise significantly.“This is the largest-scale disaster that Turkey has to manage, and, inevitably, this will create a backlash against the government,” said Sinan Ulgen, the director of Edam, an Istanbul-based think tank. “But much will depend on how effectively it can address the needs of the affected population.”A man mourning the death of his father in Kahramanmaras on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesMany residents of the disaster zone have expressed frustration with the government’s response, saying that in some areas, the state was nowhere to be seen during the initial aftermath.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesThe Turkish government has begun an extensive aid operation, dispatching 141,000 aid and rescue workers to search for the dead and wounded, to distribute food, blankets and diapers and to erect tents for the tens of thousands of homeless, many of them sleeping in cars to avoid the subzero winter chill.Deadly Quake in Turkey and SyriaA 7.8-magnitude earthquake on Feb. 6, with its epicenter in Gaziantep, Turkey, has become one of the deadliest natural disasters of the century.A Devastating Event: The quake, one of the deadliest since 2000, rippled through neighboring countries; an area along the Syrian-Turkish border was hit particularly hard.From the Scene: Thousands of people have been killed, and dozens of cities have been gutted. Here is how witnesses described the disaster.A Desperate Search: When buildings fell in Antakya, Turkey, families poured in from all over to help. Videos capture the dig for survivors.Syrian Refugees: Millions of people fled the war in Syria for the safety of neighboring Turkey. Now, those killed in the quake are being returned home.Nevertheless, many survivors have expressed frustration with the government’s response, saying the state was nowhere to be found during the initial aftermath, leaving residents alone to find shelter and free trapped loved ones from collapsed buildings.The scarcity of trained rescue squads and heavy machinery during the critical first days most likely increased the death toll because many people who could have been saved were not.When government agencies arrived, residents said, their equipment seemed insufficient and they failed to coordinate the efforts of volunteers who were already struggling to help survivors.For two days after the quake, Mr. Gul said his family lacked food and water and felt helpless amid the destruction.“The house next to us collapsed and there was a girl inside saying, ‘Save me! save me!’” he said.The girl was saved, but Mr. Gul and his relatives had to dig out their five dead family members, he said.He had worked in Germany for 20 years, funneling his savings into 10 apartments in the city of Kahramanmaras, near the quake’s epicenter, so he could live off the rent. But all of the apartments were destroyed, and he has to start over.“I don’t know what I’m going to do,” he said.Distributing aid in the southern city of Antakya on Wednesday.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesTurkish soldiers joined a rescue operation in Kahramanmaras on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesDuring his two decades as prime minister and president, Mr. Erdogan has argued that changes to the way Turkey was run were necessary to protect it from a range of domestic and foreign threats, including military coups and terrorist groups.He has also restricted the army, which played a key role in the government’s response to the 1999 earthquake.Turker Erturk, a former Navy admiral who was a commander in the crisis center set up after that quake, said in an interview that the army had swiftly intervened. But in the years since, Mr. Erdogan’s government had limited that ability and the army had stopped planning and training for it, he said.After Monday’s quake, the government called on the army only after public criticism, according to Mr. Erturk.“It is because of one-man rule,” he said. “In authoritarian governments, those decisions are made at the very top, and they wait for his commands.”On Friday, the army said in a tweet that its soldiers had been helping “from the first day” and now had more than 25,000 soldiers deployed. But their presence has not been obvious in many of the hardest-hit areas.Leading the government’s earthquake response is the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, or AFAD, which critics say Mr. Erdogan has stocked with loyalists and empowered at the expense of other organizations, like the Turkish Red Crescent.AFAD, the agency leading the government’s earthquake response, set up shelters for the homeless on the edge of Antakya on Thursday.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesA family gathered around a fire to stay warm in Antakya on Wednesday.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe earthquake has also led to increased scrutiny of the government’s use of construction codes aimed at preventing buildings from collapsing, according to analystsAlthough no one can predict the precise timing of an earthquake, seismologists have been warning for years that a big one was expected in this region.Three days before the quake, a prominent geologist, Naci Gorur, wrote on Twitter that he was concerned that other seismic activity in Turkey had put pressure on the faults near the epicenter of Monday’s tremor. He even posted a map pinning some of the locations that would be the hardest hit if his predictions came to pass.After the quake, he tweeted again, saying: “As geologists, we grew exhausted of repeating that this earthquake was coming. No one even cared what we were saying.”Following the 1999 quake, Turkey strengthened its construction codes to make buildings more earthquake resistant.But the zone devastated by the recent quakes is dotted with areas where some buildings survived while others nearby — some relatively new — completely collapsed, raising questions about whether some contractors had cut corners.A damaged artist’s studio in Antakya.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesThe body of an earthquake victim at the entrance to a mosque in Antakya.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesAt one collapsed apartment block this week, volunteer construction workers spotted what they said was inferior rebar and they broke up chunks of concrete with their hands, saying it was poor quality.In the days since, a lawyers’ association has asked prosecutors in Kahramanmaras to identify contractors who built buildings that collapsed and inspectors who checked them so they can be investigated for possible criminal violations. Prosectors in Gaziantep have started collecting rubble samples for their own investigation.The earthquake left behind billions of dollars in damage, and government plans will require billions more at a time when the state budget is already strained.Before the quake, Mr. Erdogan’s government unleashed billions of dollars in new spending aimed at cushioning the blow of high inflation to citizens before the election, a cash injection that some economists predicted could tip the country into recession this year.On top of economic hardship, the earthquake will deepen Turks’ distress, and not in a way that makes them feel that they are contributing to a greater cause, said Selim Koru, an analyst at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey.“This, by its nature, comes out of nowhere, and it makes people even more miserable, and not just in the earthquake zone,” he said. “The economy is going to suffer, and I’m not sure it gives that suffering any meaning.”Searching for clothing in a donation pile in Antakya.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesWatching the search and rescue operation in Antakya.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe earthquake’s proximity to the presidential and parliamentary elections that must be held on or before June 18 could lead to other challenges.The Reuters news agency quoted an unnamed Turkish official on Thursday as saying the earthquake’s devastation posed “serious difficulties” for the vote. It was the first hint that the government could seek to postpone it.Trying to unseat Mr. Erdogan is a coalition of six opposition parties that want to bolster the economy and restore independence to state institutions. They have already started trying to turn the quake response into an election issue.But even some angry voters still trust Mr. Erdogan.“We failed this test,” said Ismail Ozaslan, 58, a long-haul truck driver in a park in Gaziantep where part of his family was cramped inside a tent. “We are like patients left to die. There is no management here.”But his criticism of local and national officials, whom he accused of corruption and neglect, stopped short of Mr. Erdogan.“It’s like a building where the roof is strong but the pillars are rotten,” he said. “We don’t have a chance other than Erdogan. May God grant him a long life.”The damaged Kurtulus mosque in Gaziantep.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesSafak Timur More