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      Harris y Trump están empatados en Míchigan y Wisconsin, según las encuestas

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      La contienda se ha estrechado en dos de los estados disputados del norte, según las encuestas de The New York Times/Siena College.[Estamos en WhatsApp. Empieza a seguirnos ahora]La vicepresidenta Kamala Harris y el expresidente Donald Trump están en una contienda aún más apretada en los estados en disputa de Míchigan y Wisconsin que hace solo siete semanas, según las nuevas encuestas de The New York Times y Siena College.La ventaja de Harris de principios de agosto se ha visto ligeramente reducida por la fortaleza de Trump en cuestiones económicas, según las encuestas, un hecho potencialmente preocupante para la vicepresidenta, dado que la economía sigue siendo el tema más importante para los votantes.A menos de 40 días de las elecciones, la contienda está esencialmente empatada en Míchigan, con Harris recibiendo el 48 por ciento de apoyo entre los votantes probables y Trump obteniendo el 47 por ciento, bien dentro del margen de error de la encuesta. En Wisconsin, un estado donde las encuestas suelen exagerar el apoyo a los demócratas, Harris tiene un 49 por ciento, frente al 47 por ciento de Trump.Los sondeos también revelan que Harris aventaja en nueve puntos porcentuales a Trump en el segundo distrito electoral de Nebraska, cuyo único voto electoral podría ser decisivo en el Colegio Electoral. En un escenario posible, el distrito podría dar a Harris exactamente los 270 votos electorales que necesitaría para ganar las elecciones si ganara Míchigan, Wisconsin y Pensilvania, y Trump capturara los estados en disputa del Cinturón del Sol, donde las encuestas de Times/Siena muestran que está por delante.El Times y el Siena College también analizaron la contienda presidencial en Ohio, que no se considera un estado en disputa para obtener la Casa Blanca, pero tiene una de las contiendas senatoriales más competitivas del país. Trump lidera por seis puntos en Ohio, mientras que el senador demócrata Sherrod Brown aventaja a su oponente republicano, Bernie Moreno, por cuatro puntos.How the polls compare More

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      To Beat Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Needs to Answer One Question

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      Kamala Harris is at the halfway point between when she officially became the Democratic presidential nominee and Election Day. Her ascent has been remarkable. She is beating Donald Trump in most national polls and is in statistical dead heats in every battleground state.But she has more work to do. According to a recent New York Times poll, 31 percent of voters expressed the desire to know more about her. To win in 37 days, there is one question she needs to answer: Why? Why do you want to be the president, why are you the right leader for this moment and why does it matter to voters? She has proved her credentials, prosecuted the case against Mr. Trump and clarified some policy views, but not her why. That’s what the American people want to know about her.It’s a fundamental question — and one that stumps too many political candidates.How she answers will determine whether she can convince those undecided voters and drive record turnout among Democratic base voters. My suggestion for the vice president: Go big and take more calculated risks.First, cut back on the incessant focus on Mr. Trump. By now, almost everyone who could be persuaded by the case against him has heard it.Second, trade the massive rallies for smaller, town-hall-style events in battleground states. While rallies are meant to entertain, town halls create the conditions for Ms. Harris to dig into her why and directly address voters, without the pressure for applause lines.The town hall format plays to Ms. Harris’s strengths. I served as Ms. Harris’s communications director in her early days in the White House, and the leader I witnessed in those late-night meetings in the West Wing was compassionate, funny and warm. She sees people and has a heart for their circumstances, hopes and dreams. Those qualities are what make her the right leader for this moment and are her greatest contrast points with Mr. Trump. The intimate setting of a town hall will expose voters to those qualities and add more dimensions to what already excites them about her.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Harris, at the Border, Shows Democrats’ Hard-Line Evolution on Immigration

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      On her first trip to the southern border as the Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris delivered one of her party’s toughest speeches on immigration and border policy in a generation. Even as she did, she tried to paint former President Donald J. Trump as a feckless chaos agent without the ability to deliver the hard-line results he has promised.Ms. Harris vowed to carry on President Biden’s crackdown on asylum and to impose order on the southern border, demonstrating how much the politics of immigration have shifted for Democrats. Just one presidential cycle ago, Ms. Harris and most other candidates in the party’s primary race had promised to decriminalize illegal border crossings.Ms. Harris’s remarks on Friday in the border town of Douglas, Ariz., laid out a vision that makes clear that her party — and the nation — continue to back away from the long-held American promise of protection to desperate people fleeing poverty and violence abroad no matter how they enter the United States.“The United States is a sovereign nation, and I believe we have a duty to set rules at our border and to enforce them,” Ms. Harris said. “I take that responsibility very seriously.”In political terms, her visit to Arizona — a critical battleground state where she narrowly trails Mr. Trump in polls — represented an attempt to toughen her image on immigration, an issue on which surveys show that many voters favor the former president.On Friday, she spoke at a community college on a stage adorned with signs that read “Border Security and Stability.” Before her speech, she visited U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s port of entry in Douglas, walking along a section of border wall that the Obama administration built in 2012. Border agents also briefed her on efforts to stop fentanyl smuggling.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      These Are the People Running for NYC Mayor Against Adams

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      Now that Mayor Eric Adams has been indicted, his path to re-election in New York is likely to become much more difficult.Mr. Adams is running for a second term in a competitive Democratic primary next June. Already, four prominent Democrats have entered the race, arguing that Mr. Adams is a poor manager and has not addressed the city’s affordability crisis. And even more challengers may enter the race.So far, the field includes Brad Lander, the city’s left-leaning comptroller who recently pledged to end street homelessness for severely mentally ill people, and Scott Stringer, a former city comptroller who has focused on affordable housing and whose 2021 mayoral campaign was derailed by allegations of sexual misconduct.There is also Zellnor Myrie, a state senator from Brooklyn who is proposing free “universal after-school” programs, and Jessica Ramos, a state senator from Queens who has focused on affordability and is friendly with unions.Zohran Mamdani, a state assemblyman from Queens who is weighing entering the race, wants to stop rent increases that have taken place under Mr. Adams. And former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, who resigned in 2021 after facing a series of sexual harassment allegations, is also considering running, and has focused this year on combating antisemitism.If Mr. Adams resigns, the city’s public advocate, Jumaane Williams, would become acting mayor and might run for the job on a permanent basis. Mr. Williams is a left-leaning former City Council member from Brooklyn who has been a fierce critic of Mr. Adams, assailing the mayor’s aggressive policing strategy.Mr. Adams’s approval rating was already dismal before his indictment. In a Quinnipiac poll taken last December, only 28 percent of New Yorkers approved of the job he was doing — the lowest rating for any New York City mayor in a Quinnipiac survey since it began polling the city in 1996.Mr. Adams, a former police officer who ran for mayor on a public safety message, won by a slim margin in the 2021 Democratic primary. He beat his closest challenger, Kathryn Garcia, the city’s former sanitation commissioner, by roughly 7,200 votes. More

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      What Happens if Eric Adams Resigns?

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      If Mayor Eric Adams were to resign, New York City’s public advocate, Jumaane Williams, would become the acting mayor.Mr. Williams, a left-leaning Democrat from Brooklyn, has served as public advocate since winning a special election in 2019. He was re-elected to a full term in 2021 and ran unsuccessfully for governor the next year.Mr. Williams has been a fierce critic of Mr. Adams, assailing the mayor’s aggressive policing strategy and pushing to end solitary confinement in city jails. Mr. Williams has also cast doubts about the mayor’s ability to govern amid a swirl of federal investigations.Within three days of becoming mayor, Mr. Williams would name a date for a special election to pick a new mayor, according to the city’s charter. The nonpartisan election could be held within 90 days. The city’s relatively new ranked-choice voting system, in which voters can rank multiple candidates, would be used.No public advocate has become acting mayor before. Only two mayors have resigned — Jimmy Walker in 1932 and William O’Dwyer in 1950 — both after corruption scandals. The office of public advocate was created in 1993.Mr. Williams said recently that he was exhausted and angered by the troubling headlines about Mr. Adams and his administration, arguing that the municipal corruption scandals appeared to be “the worst since Tammany Hall.”“I’m not sure how you continue to govern with, every day, more corrupt arrests, more corrupt suspicions,” he said.Mr. Adams has insisted that he will not resign. The mayor recently told reporters that more than 700,000 people had voted for him in the 2021 election.“I was elected by the people of the city, and I’m going to fulfill my obligation to the people of this city,” he said.On Wednesday, after news of his indictment was made public, the mayor made it clear that his stance had not changed.“I always knew that if I stood my ground for New Yorkers that I would be a target — and a target I became,” Mr. Adams said in a statement. “If I am charged, I am innocent and I will fight this with every ounce of my strength and spirit.” More

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      Trump Gets a Lift From Arizona Ticket-Splitters Backing a Democrat for Senate

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      Representative Ruben Gallego, the Democratic candidate for Senate, leads in this key contest, a New York Times/Siena College poll found, while Kamala Harris trails Donald Trump.Former President Donald J. Trump appears to be benefiting from ticket-splitters in Arizona, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday, a finding that highlights his strength with Latino and younger voters as well as the unique weaknesses of the Republican nominee for Senate.The poll found Representative Ruben Gallego, the Democratic candidate for Senate, leading Kari Lake, a close ally of Mr. Trump’s, by six percentage points, even as Mr. Trump has opened up a five-point lead in the state over Vice President Kamala Harris.Such a scenario would represent a notable degree of ticket-splitting, perpetuating a trend captured by surveys throughout this election cycle. Democratic Senate candidates in a number of swing states, including Arizona and Nevada, have consistently polled ahead of the top of the ticket, especially when President Biden was the party’s standard-bearer. As Ms. Harris’s nomination has made the election more competitive, the gap between her and those down-ballot Democrats has narrowed — but the trend persists in most races in swing states.“Donald Trump creates his own weather, and he has a coalition supporting him like no other Republican nominee in our lifetime — perhaps ever — in Arizona,” said Stan Barnes, a former Republican state lawmaker who is now a political consultant there. He pointed to the support Mr. Trump has garnered from young people and voters of color, who traditionally lean Democratic, in surveys this year. “He’s breaking out of that rule, and it does not translate down-ballot,” he said.In 2022, Ms. Lake angered many traditionally Republican voters during her divisive governor’s race, feuding with the governor at the time, Doug Ducey, a conservative Republican, and angering supporters of Senator John McCain, who died in 2018, by saying her political rise “drove a stake through the heart of the McCain machine.” She further alienated some Republicans by filing a series of lawsuits after she lost her election, claiming that it had been stolen.This year, she has tried to change tactics, courting the moderate wing of the Republican Party in Arizona. But old grievances die hard.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Congress Unveils Short-Term Spending Deal

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      Speaker Mike Johnson dropped his demands for proof-of-citizenship voting requirements to strike a deal that includes more money for the Secret Service and funds the government through Dec. 20.Congressional leaders from both parties unveiled a short-term agreement to fund the government on Sunday, after Speaker Mike Johnson abandoned demands for a longer-term deal that also included new proof-of-citizenship requirements for voter registration.The deal, which extends federal appropriations through Dec. 20, includes an additional $231 million to help the beleaguered Secret Service protect candidates during the upcoming presidential election and into next year. According to the Treasury Department, the United States has spent about $6.3 trillion in fiscal 2024, which ends on Sept. 30.The timeline of the deal allows Congress to sidestep a government shutdown during the campaign season, but it all but ensures that spending disputes will dominate the lame-duck period between the election and the inauguration of a new Congress in January.“While I am pleased bipartisan negotiations quickly led to a government funding agreement free of cuts and poison pills, this same agreement could have been done two weeks ago,” Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, said in a statement heralding the temporary spending patch — known as a continuing resolution — and blaming Republicans for dragging their heels. “Instead, Speaker Johnson chose to follow the MAGA way and wasted precious time.”In a letter on Sunday to his colleagues explaining why he was forced to take the deal, Mr. Johnson wrote, “A continuing resolution is the only option that remains.” He promised to put it to a floor vote this week.Mr. Johnson had made it a personal crusade to include in the spending package legislation requiring people to prove their U.S. citizenship when registering to vote, arguing it was necessary to prevent fraud, despite scant evidence of noncitizens voting. That requirement, known as the SAVE Act, was also supported by the hard right and by former President Donald J. Trump, who called on Congress not to pass a spending plan without “every ounce” of the proposal.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More