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      Malliotakis Defends N.Y.C. House Seat, Toppling Familiar Democratic Foe

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      Representative Nicole Malliotakis defended her seat on Tuesday against Max Rose, the Democrat whom she unseated two years ago, preserving her status as the lone Republican in New York City’s House delegation, according to The Associated Press.Ms. Malliotakis was widely expected to win re-election in New York’s 11th Congressional District, which encompasses Staten Island and a section of southern Brooklyn, and is the most conservative-leaning in the city.Shortly after The A.P.’s race call, at around 9:45 p.m., Ms. Malliotakis led Mr. Rose by more than 26 percentage points. She held a significant lead with voters in Staten Island, which makes up the bulk of the district.In Ms. Malliotakis’s re-election campaign, she followed her party’s strategy of focusing on the economy and public safety, pinning rising inflation and crime on Democratic leaders and, by extension, on Mr. Rose.In particular, she focused on changes to New York’s bail laws made by state Democrats in 2019, which she blamed for an uptick in crime. Though Mr. Rose was not involved, she noted that he had voiced support for the principles behind bail reform in the past.Mr. Rose focused his campaign heavily on abortion access, arguing that Ms. Malliotakis would support further restrictions in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. He also tried to link Ms. Malliotakis to far-right factions of her party, zeroing in on her voting against certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election after the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.But Ms. Malliotakis, a former state assemblywoman, was able to build on the success she found in 2020, when she beat Mr. Rose by about six percentage points, and kept the seat in Republican hands after it flipped parties in each of the previous two elections. More

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      Voting Takes Center Stage During US Midterm Elections

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      “I want to do everything I can to use my voice to create the kind of democracy that deserves to exist,” one voter said.They had been assured that they were wasting their time. That the fix was in. That a fair outcome was impossible, what with all that Democratic ballot-rigging — or was it Republican voter suppression?But millions of Americans gave voting a go anyway on Tuesday, dutifully turning up across the country to cast ballots at schoolhouses, libraries and V.F.W. posts.After a campaign marked by the direst of claims, it was, in its way, a small act of faith.“It’s going a little bit too far left,” said one voter, Lucas Boyd, 43, explaining what had brought him to a polling place in Haymarket, Va. “We are trying to bring it back to a middle ground, and that is really why I came today.”Cheryl Arnold, who was also casting a ballot in Haymarket, had a different outcome in mind. A sales worker in her 50s, she said her aim was “not furthering the Republican agenda.”But she and Mr. Boyd, a software salesman, shared at least one fundamental belief: that voting might make a difference.“I want to do everything I can to use my voice to create the kind of democracy that deserves to exist,” Ms. Arnold said.A voter dropping off a ballot in American Fork, Utah, on Tuesday.Kim Raff for The New York TimesStill, it was an Election Day of unusual tensions, in keeping with a campaign in which accusations of voting fraud were sometimes cast even before the ballots themselves were, and in which some private citizens took it upon themselves to take up arms and “guard” absentee ballot boxes.“I definitely know where the exits are,” said one poll worker in Flagstaff, Ariz., Brittany Montague. “Now more than ever, we’re so polarized, and there isn’t a lot of trust in the system.”In Arizona on Tuesday morning, reports of dozens of malfunctioning ballot-counting machines in Maricopa County prompted a surge of voter fraud claims across right-wing media.“None of this indicates any fraud,” said Bill Gates, chairman of the Maricopa County board of supervisors, a Republican. “This is a technical issue.”A video captured election workers trying to reassure voters.“No one’s trying to deceive anybody,” one poll worker says.“No, not on Election Day. No, that would never happen,” the person recording the video replies sarcastically.Even before the day began, more than 40 million Americans had cast early ballots, and millions more were joining them on Tuesday.In Michigan, the abortion issue was a big draw at the polls. After the Supreme Court decision reversing Roe v. Wade, Michigan was one of five states that had abortion-related measures on the ballot. In Birmingham, an affluent community outside Detroit, a slow stream of people turned out to vote on Proposal 3, a ballot measure to protect abortion rights.Outside the Baldwin Public Library, where Birmingham city workers had turned metered parking into “voter-only parking” for the day, Alexandra Ayaub said supporting the measure was her main reason for voting.“Michigan should be a safe place for women,” said Ms. Ayaub, 31, who described herself as leaning Democratic.In nearby Warren, Rosemary Sobol also said the initiative was her main motivation for voting — even if she was still undecided.“I’m not completely anti-abortion, but I’m also a Catholic,” said Ms. Sobol, an 81-year-old retired principal. “It’s a very hard decision.”For some voters, it was a day to reconsider past positions.Andrew O’Connell said that he had been born into a Democratic family and that he had long taken pride in switching up his votes between the parties, but at 6:30 Tuesday morning, he could be seen standing outside a busy polling location on Staten Island holding a sign displaying all of the Republicans on the ballot. Everything changed with the social unrest in 2020, he said.“I believe safety took a back seat back when the protests were going on,” Mr. O’Connell said. “We sat back and watched that happen and some folks didn’t think there was anything wrong with it.”A family voting in Miami Beach, Fla., on Tuesday.Scott McIntyre for The New York TimesFor other voters, it was a day to reconsider life choices — like where to live.When Albert Latta, 67, left a polling place in Kenosha, Wis., he had a weary look. The most important issue for him in this election? “Honesty,” he said.Mr. Latta said that he had voted Democratic in the races for governor and the Senate and that he was so tired of deception from Republicans — on election integrity, among other issues, he said — that he was considering picking up and moving across the state line into the blue of Illinois.“How Wisconsin goes in this election may have a lot to do with that decision,” he said. “I call today’s vote the biggest I.Q. test this country has ever taken.”For some voters, a hop across state lines, it appeared, might not do the trick.In the city of Folsom, in one of liberal California’s more conservative regions, John Butruce, 66, offered a fairly succinct synopsis of his take on things before casting his ballot.“I don’t like the taxes, I don’t like the inflation, I don’t like the crime,” Mr. Butruce said. “I don’t like the state of the country or the state of the state.”In Kenosha, where voters were deciding whether to re-elect Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, the shadow of the demonstrations and riots that tore through the city in August 2020 after a police shooting loomed large.“I just want to get him out,” said Abraham Gloria, 40. “He could have stopped what happened with the riots, and he didn’t.”But as she headed into a church in Kenosha to vote, Phyllis Sheets, 60, said she was supporting the Democrats. Democracy, she said, depended on it.“I’m tired of people co-signing foolishness,” Ms. Sheets said. “It’s like people are drinking the silly juice around here: conspiracy theories, not conceding elections, QAnon, Jan. 6. It’s not American.”Christine Grant looking over information while filling out her ballot in Detroit on Tuesday.Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesNot everyone was thinking about this election, even as it was still unfolding. They were too busy talking about the next one, and news of a “very big announcement” from a Republican politician in Florida.In Warren, Mich., Mike Smith, 58, had just one quibble.“I hope he comes back sooner than 2024,” Mr. Smith said. “I still don’t accept 2020.”Word that Donald J. Trump might soon make formal what has long been expected played out at polling sites across a polarized country to a mix of elation and fear.“I am terrified,” said Liz Lambert, 57, a marketing manager in Scottsdale, Ariz., clutching a coffee cup as she headed to work after casting her ballot. “This country has been through enough. We need stability and maturity and leadership.”In Haymarket, Va., Gloria Ugbaja declined to get engaged by a possible Trump announcement about another run for president.“I thought it was a distraction,” said Ms. Ugbaja, 47, who works in health care management.“Whether he announces or not is his business,” she said. “Every American has to keep moving forward. Whether he tries to run or not, it indirectly does not affect what the average American has to do on a daily basis.”Reporting was contributed by More

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      Election Day in New York: Who’s Running and How to Vote

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      Democrats are aiming to keep control of the governor’s mansion, the State Legislature and a majority of New York’s House seats, but Republicans seem to have momentum.An unusually frenetic midterms election cycle in New York will come to an end on Tuesday, when voters across the state fill out their ballots in a number of competitive races that have the power to reshape the state’s political future.With Democrats anxiously trying to hold on to their thin majority in Congress and Republicans eager to take power, New York has become a key battleground, with a handful of races that could be key in determining control of the House of Representatives.The State Legislature is also being contested, with Republicans hoping to erase the Democrats’ supermajority, as are other statewide races including the re-election bid of Letitia James, the state attorney general.But perhaps no contest on New York’s ballots has been more dramatic than the unexpectedly tight governor’s race. Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat who took office 14 months ago, entered with a significant war chest and a sizable lead in polls. But her Republican challenger, Representative Lee Zeldin, has chipped away at Ms. Hochul’s advantages, surprising Democrats in a liberal state that hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office since 2002.Over the last several months, The New York Times has covered the issues at the heart of the governor’s race and the moneyed forces behind the candidates and has examined how New York has been roiled by the political debates dividing the country.As voters head to the polls, here is a guide to what is likely to weigh on their minds.The candidates for governorMs. Hochul, 64, became New York’s first female governor last year after her predecessor, Andrew M. Cuomo, resigned. A moderate Democrat from Buffalo, Ms. Hochul was not particularly well known outside western New York before she became governor.Not long after assuming office, Ms. Hochul moved quickly to rally state party leaders behind her. As she dominated her primary campaign, she amassed a huge fund-raising haul for the general election.Gov. Kathy Hochul is in an unexpectedly tight race.Tom Brenner for The New York TimesMr. Zeldin, 42, has represented eastern Long Island in Congress since 2014. He was favored by party leaders in his primary but had to fight off challengers in a four-way race before turning his focus to defeating Ms. Hochul.He has surged in the polls over the last two months, surprising Democrats. But behind his rise are years of planning, well-timed alliances with powerful Republicans, an embrace of former President Donald J. Trump and a knack for reinvention.The issuesMr. Zeldin has mostly focused his campaign for governor on crime and public safety in New York City. He has accused Ms. Hochul of being too lenient on crime and has focused heavily on repealing the state’s bail laws, which many Republicans and moderate Democrats, including the city’s mayor, Eric Adams, have blamed for an uptick in crime, though available data do not show a clear link.Mr. Zeldin has also denounced efforts by progressive Democrats in Albany and New York City to overhaul the criminal justice system and has vowed to fire Manhattan’s district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, if elected.Ms. Hochul earlier this year worked with the State Legislature to tighten the bail laws but has said that Mr. Zeldin is overly focused on the issue. With polls showing Mr. Zeldin’s message appearing to resonate, she has in recent weeks trumpeted her push to strengthen New York’s so-called red flag laws and tried to limit where New Yorkers can carry a concealed firearm. Mr. Zeldin opposes limiting access to guns.Representative Lee Zeldin has focused on crime and public safety.Brittainy Newman for The New York TimesThe candidates have also battled over how to boost safety on the city’s subway, which is controlled by New York’s governor. Violent crimes on the subway this year are only about 2.6 percent of New York City’s total, but the rate of such crimes — murder, rape, felony assault and robbery — per subway ride has more than doubled since 2019Ms. Hochul has also tried to draw a sharp contrast with Mr. Zeldin after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn a constitutional right to abortion. Earlier this year, she announced a $35 million fund to expand abortion access in New York and moved to put the right to abortion in the State Constitution.Mr. Zeldin voted consistently to limit abortion rights in Congress. But as he has tried to win support from moderate Democrats, he has pledged not to change the state’s existing laws.Following the moneyAs the race between Ms. Hochul and Mr. Zeldin has become more competitive, both candidates have attracted a flurry of outside spending.Mr. Zeldin has benefited from more than $11 million spent by Ronald S. Lauder, the billionaire cosmetics heir who has been backing conservative causes in the state. Mr. Lauder’s money has largely gone to two super PACs, which the state’s top elections watchdog is investigating over charges that they improperly coordinated with Mr. Zeldin’s campaign.Ms. Hochul has spent the last year putting together a $50 million war chest, often through fund-raising events that Republicans frequently attacked as ethically questionable. Many of her donations have come from the gambling industry, which is eagerly awaiting new licenses for casinos in and around New York City.She has also been taking money from appointees to boards and commissions, despite an executive order designed to prevent such donations.A quick guide to House racesMany states in the country used their redistricting process to lower the number of truly competitive House districts. But after an attempted Democratic gerrymander led to a court battle and new maps, New York has more competitive races than might be expected.They include:Three House seats on Long Island, in suburban swing districts where Republicans hope to chip away at recent Democratic support.The rematch in Staten Island and southern Brooklyn, where former Representative Max Rose is distancing himself from national Democrats in a bid to defeat Representative Nicole Malliotakis, the Republican who unseated him in 2020.The fight in the 17th District in the Hudson Valley, where Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, a Democrat who controls the party’s House campaign arm, appears vulnerable.A neighboring seat near Poughkeepsie, where Representative Pat Ryan, a Democrat, who won a special election just months ago, is trying to win a neighboring seat.A Syracuse-area district that is a rare chance for Democrats to flip a Republican-held seat by appealing to moderate voters.When and where to votePolls will be open on Election Day from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. You can find your polling place at voterlookup.elections.ny.gov, a State Board of Elections website. If you live in New York City, you can also call 1-866-VOTE-NYC.Absentee ballots must be returned by mail, with a postmark no later than Nov. 8, or in person at a polling site or a county Board of Elections office by 9 p.m. on Election Day.Voters who encounter any difficulties can call the attorney general’s election protection hotline at 1-866-390-2992. More

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      How to Watch Election Night Like a Pro

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      Strategists are watching a few East Coast races that could be called early, offering a rough road map to the entire country.Want to know how the story of the 2022 midterms is going to end as soon as possible on election night? Strategists in both parties are zeroing in on a handful of East Coast races that could be called early in the evening, giving us a rough road map to the entire country. (Here’s when to expect the results in every state.)The simplest strategy is to follow three House races in Virginia that will function on Tuesday like a gauge along a flood-prone coastal plain — telling us whether this election will be a red ripple, a red wave, a red tsunami or something closer to a modest blue riptide. Polls close there at 7 p.m. Eastern.Red ripple: The most vulnerable Democrat in Virginia is Representative Elaine Luria, a former Navy commander whose district is the military- and veteran-heavy area around Virginia Beach. Biden won the area by 1.9 percentage points in 2020, but during last year’s race for governor in Virginia, it went Republican by double digits. Watch Virginia Beach County, which swung from a five-point victory for Democrats in 2020 to an eight-point loss a year later.If Luria survives, Democrats will be ecstatic. It might mean that a few Republicans, like Representatives Steve Chabot of Ohio or Don Bacon of Nebraska, are in trouble.Red wave: Next up is Representative Abigail Spanberger, a former C.I.A. officer who faces Yesli Vega, the daughter of Salvadoran refugees. The district includes a mix of suburban and rural areas southwest of Washington. Republicans think they have a shot at ousting Spanberger even though Biden won the area by 6.8 percentage points in 2020.Remember: Rural areas usually count faster, so Spanberger will appear to be way down before the most populous county in her district, Prince William, tallies its votes. Take note of just how easily Republicans are winning in Spanberger’s rural counties. Last year, Glenn Youngkin carried Greene County by 36 percentage points on the way to the governor’s mansion.Red tsunami: If Representative Jennifer Wexton, the Democratic incumbent in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, loses to Hung Cao, a Navy veteran who is running for office for the first time, Democrats are in for a brutal night. The only remaining question will be just how brutal — Biden won the upscale Virginia exurban area by 18.1 percentage points, though Youngkin closed that gap against Terry McAuliffe in 2021.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Final Landscape: As candidates make their closing arguments, Democrats are bracing for potential losses even in traditionally blue corners of the country as Republicans predict a red wave.The Battle for Congress: With so many races on edge, a range of outcomes is still possible. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, breaks down four possible scenarios.Voting Worries: Even as voting goes smoothly, fear and suspicion hang over the process, exposing the toll former President Donald J. Trump’s falsehoods have taken on American democracy.If Wexton hangs on but Luria and Spanberger lose, Republicans will still pop the Moët early: Of the 88 House seats deemed even remotely competitive this year, there are 45 more districts where Democrats won a smaller share of the vote in 2020 — 26 of which are currently held by the party.Many or all of them could flip. A suburban Democrat like Representative Angie Craig in Minnesota would need to worry, as would once-comfortable Democratic incumbents in West Coast states like California.Virginia could also provide clues to the national mood of Black voters, whose tepid enthusiasm for Biden has worried Democrats. Sean Trende, a political analyst who served as a special master during Virginia’s redistricting process, suggested looking at the returns in Hampton City and Surry Counties to gain insight into how turnout among Black voters in both urban and rural areas is shaping up.A seven-point swing in Spanberger’s district would also suggest that polls have been overstating Democrats’ support elsewhere. In that scenario, some Democratic governors might fall: Tony Evers in Wisconsin, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, even Tim Walz in Minnesota. It would signal that Republicans are likely to retake the Senate, where they need to flip just one seat.But, but, but …With apologies to Tip O’Neill, all politics is national now. But local factors — unique demographics, strong and weak candidates, well-run and hapless campaigns — still matter at the margins, where races are often won and lost.There are otherwise vulnerable Democrats like Representative Marcy Kaptur of Ohio and Representative Chris Pappas of New Hampshire who might stave off defeat because they face flawed Republican opponents. In a wave year, though, even those seemingly fortunate Democrats might go down.“If Marcy loses, we lose every single seat Trump won and probably every seat Biden won by 2 or less,” said Brian Stryker, a Democratic pollster at Impact Research. That’s 14 seats.There are also comparatively strong Republican candidates elsewhere along the East Coast like Allan Fung, who could win an open seat in Rhode Island that Biden won by more than 14 points. And if George Logan, a Republican business executive, defeats Representative Jahana Hayes, a Democrat, in staunchly blue northwestern Connecticut, it would suggest that Republicans are persuading Democratic voters to break ranks.What if Luria loses and Spanberger wins, but just barely? Pour yourself a cup of coffee and settle in. Things are going to get interesting.The Senate: Brace for uncertaintyWhile most analysts in both parties expect Republicans to win the House fairly easily, it will probably be much longer before the balance of power in the Senate becomes clear.Polling in most, if not all, of the major competitive Senate races is within the margin of error, suggesting the results could be close in either direction.And because rural counties tend to count the fastest, it might initially look as if Republicans are far ahead in many states until more Democratic votes are tallied in populous urban areas.The Associated Press and the major TV networks use mathematical models to determine the winner before all the votes are in. But this year, a definitive outcome could take days to unfold, Democrats have cautioned leaders of the news media in a recent round of briefings.Supporters of Mehmet Oz, the Republican Senate candidate, at an event on Sunday in Bethlehem, Pa.Hilary Swift for The New York TimesPennsylvania, for one, mandates that in-person ballots be counted before mail-in and absentee votes. If the Senate race there between Mehmet Oz and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman turns out to be as close as the polling indicates, every one of those late-counted votes could matter. In New Hampshire, election officials are warning that a surge of write-in votes could slow the count.In 2020, the Senate special election in Arizona came down to just 78,806 votes, though The A.P. declared Mark Kelly the winner on election night. In Georgia, Jon Ossoff was behind Senator David Perdue by about the same number. But since neither candidate reached 50 percent, they went to a runoff two months later.Democrats did not secure their majority until the runoff contests on Jan. 5, 2021, when both Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, who ran in a special election against Senator Kelly Loeffler, narrowly defeated their Republican opponents.We could be headed for another runoff in Georgia if neither candidate wins an outright majority. And if Democrats win three of the other battleground races elsewhere, control of the Senate will again come down to the Peach State. Can Warnock bank enough votes in the sprawling Atlanta suburbs to offset the rural strength of his rival, Herschel Walker?Counties to watchWhile you’re waiting, here are some places to home in on:New Hampshire: It’s smaller than the other states, and could be the one where we first learn the winner. Here, the county to monitor is Hillsborough, which Hillary Clinton and Senator Maggie Hassan both lost narrowly in 2016. Biden then flipped it convincingly in 2020. Home to Manchester and Nashua and their suburbs, it’s the state’s most populous county.Nevada: The state has only two significant urban areas: Clark County, home of Las Vegas and a Democratic stronghold; and Washoe County, home of Reno and a swing region. When Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Joe Heck to win her Senate seat in 2016, she lost every county but Clark — where she bested him by more than 82,000 votes. Two years later, Jacky Rosen won big in Clark County and defeated Senator Dean Heller, the Republican incumbent, in Washoe County, too. If Cortez Masto isn’t running up the score in Vegas, big-time, she probably won’t win.Arizona: Statewide races are won and lost in Maricopa County, which contains Phoenix and 62 percent of the state’s population. In 2020, Kelly won it by around 80,000 votes. The state’s other major population center is deep-blue Tucson, while Mohave, Pinal and Yavapai Counties are typically shades of red. Watch the outcome in State Senate District 4, a swing seat in Paradise Valley, a suburb of Phoenix — the results there could signal larger trends.Pennsylvania: The state’s recent bellwether has been northwestern Erie County, which Biden flipped after Clinton lost it to Donald Trump in 2016. But the suburbs around Philadelphia are where Democratic candidates typically try to run up huge margins over their Republican opponents. Pay attention to blue-collar Bucks County in particular — Oz has campaigned heavily there. Biden won it by 4.4 percentage points in 2020.Ohio: Keep an eye on the returns in Delaware County, a suburb of Columbus that has trended blue in recent years even as the state as a whole has turned deep red. If J.D. Vance wins big here, it’s over. And according to Stryker, the Democratic pollster, if Representative Tim Ryan isn’t within two or three percentage points of Vance in Delaware, “weaker Democratic candidates are probably getting their clocks cleaned in the suburbs.”What to readAs the nation prepares for another Election Day, suspicion and fear have become embedded in the mechanics of American democracy and voter intimidation has crept up to levels not seen for decades, Nick Corasaniti and Charles Homans write.In his newsletter The Tilt, Nate Cohn explores the battle for Congress and lays out four potential scenarios that could unfold tomorrow night.Kate Zernike examines how, while the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade outraged many women and galvanized them heading into the midterms, men remain passive by comparison.Attorney General Merrick Garland has tried to show that the Justice Department can operate above partisanship. But Donald Trump’s apparent plan to make an early announcement of a 2024 presidential bid is testing that approach, Katie Benner writes.Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: The U.S. Midterms Loom

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      Plus a warning at COP27 and Kherson in distress.Since 1934, nearly every president has lost seats in his first midterm election.Nic Antaya for The New York TimesA U.S. midterms overviewAmericans will finish voting in midterm elections today, which could change the balance of power in state and federal legislative bodies, influence foreign policy and foreshadow the 2024 presidential race.Many races are teetering on a knife’s edge, but Democrats are bracing for losses even in traditionally blue areas. Republican control of the House, Senate or both could embolden the far-right and lawmakers in Washington who traffic in conspiracy theories and falsehoods. Here are four potential election outcomes.Democrats have depicted Republicans as extreme, while Republicans have portrayed Democrats as out of touch on inflation and immigration. Crime is a key issue: Many Americans think there’s a surge in violence, which could benefit Republicans, even though experts disagree on the data.It could also further politicize the U.S. approach to Iran and the war in Ukraine and allow Republicans to slow the torrent of aid to Kyiv. That could benefit Moscow: Russian trolls have stepped up efforts to spread misinformation before the midterms, which researchers say is an attempt to influence the outcome.2024: Donald Trump — who may announce a run soon — and Gov. Ron DeSantis, the top stars of the Republican Party, held competing rallies in Florida. And President Biden, who hoped to heal America’s divides, faces a polarized nation.Cost: These midterms have shattered all spending records for federal and state elections in a nonpresidential year, surpassing $16.7 billion.Many countries and companies have made only halting progress toward previous climate goals.Mohammed Salem/ReutersLosing “the fight of our lives”António Guterres, the U.N. secretary general, gave a stark warning in his opening remarks at yesterday’s COP27 session. “We are in the fight of our lives, and we are losing,” he said. “We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator.”“Loss and damage” — code words for the question of which countries will pay for the effects of climate change — is a key agenda item. Guterres issued an impassioned plea to help Pakistan and other vulnerable countries.The State of the WarKherson Braces for Battle: Civilians and Kremlin-appointed occupation officials have fled the city in southern Ukraine, but Russian troops appear to be digging in for an intense fight. Here’s why control of Kherson matters so much to both sides.Infrastructure Attacks: As they struggle to maintain an electricity grid heavily damaged by Russian missiles, officials in Kyiv say they have begun planning for a once unthinkable possibility: a complete blackout that would force the evacuation of the Ukrainian capital.On the Diplomatic Front: The Group of 7 nations announced that they would work together to rebuild critical infrastructure in Ukraine that has been destroyed by Russia’s military and to defend such sites from further attacks.Refugees: The war has sent the numbers of Ukrainians seeking shelter in Europe soaring, pushing asylum seekers from other conflicts to the end of the line.For the first time, “funding arrangements” for loss and damage were included on the formal agenda of the climate talks, overcoming longstanding objections from the U.S. and the E.U. Costs: On Sunday, the World Meteorological Organization said that the planet had most likely witnessed its warmest eight years on record. And famous glaciers are disappearing.Tactics: Activists want a “fossil fuel nonproliferation treaty.” The U.N. also called for an extension of early warning systems, which could save millions from climate disasters. And Belize is working to protect its coral reefs — and simultaneously reduce its debt. Egypt: Protesters are notably absent as Egypt cracks down on dissent. And Alaa Abd El Fattah, one of the country’s most prominent activists, is intensifying a hunger strike to press for his release from prison.A damaged residential building in the region of Kherson.Hannibal Hanschke/EPA, via ShutterstockHard times in KhersonRussian forces are stepping up efforts to make life unbearable for civilians in the occupied southern region of Kherson.Power was cut Sunday night, and Ukrainians say Russian troops have destroyed electrical infrastructure and have placed mines around water towers. An exiled Ukrainian official said that repairs are impossible without specialists and equipment. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, said that Russia was planning more mass strikes on energy infrastructure.Kherson City is the only regional capital to be captured by Russia, and a battle for its control has loomed for months. Its loss would be a major blow to Moscow, and Ukraine says it has no evidence that Russian forces will abandon the region.Ukraine: The military has reclaimed over 100 towns and villages in the region since it began a counteroffensive in August.Russia: Kremlin-appointed authorities ordered the “evacuation” of all civilians there last month, and occupation officials have reduced their presence. Since then, Russian personnel have shuttered essential services and looted the city, according to residents and Ukrainian officials.Other updates:Russia’s Parliament is poised to pass laws that intensify an L.G.B.T.Q. crackdown.Polls across Europe show a slight dip in popular support for Ukraine, but backing remains strong.THE LATEST NEWSAround the WorldHoward Schultz, the interim chief executive of Starbucks, said that the company was “highly concerned and humbled by the environment.”Valerie Plesch for The New York TimesChief executives seem to think a recession is nigh: Of the 409 S&P 500 companies that have held analyst calls this quarter, the word has come up 165 times.Italy’s hard-right government is taking a harder stand against migrants: Authorities are refusing to let men leave a ship that arrived from Libya.Other Big StoriesMeta is said to be planning the biggest layoffs in its history this week.Jimmy Kimmel will host the Oscars in March.A man in Philadelphia ate 40 chickens in 40 days. He’s done now, though the last few days were intense: “My body is ready to repair,” he told The Times.A Morning ReadMelanie Jones, a biologist at the University of British Columbia, Okanagan, is skeptical about the idea.Jennilee Marigomen for The New York TimesThe concept of a “wood-wide web” has overturned conventional views of forests. Instead of competing for resources, the theory goes, trees collaborate and communicate underground through fungal filaments.Although those findings influence Hollywood and forest management discussions alike, the theory is up for debate. Most experts believe that organisms whose members sacrifice their own interests for the community rarely evolve, a result of the powerful force of natural selection.Lives lived: Ela Bhatt was a champion of gender equality who secured protections for millions of Indian women in the work force. She died at 89.TAIWAN DISPATCHA new life for old bomb sheltersThis bunker has been converted into a temple.Lam Yik Fei for The New York TimesPeople in Keelung, a port city in Taiwan, have prepared for war for hundreds of years: The city had its first foreign attack, by the Dutch, in 1642.Those anxieties have left a mark on Keelung, which has the highest density of air-raid shelters of any city on the highly fortified island. Kitchens connect to underground passageways that tunnel into the sandstone. Rusty gates at the ends of alleys lead to dark maws that are filled with memories of war, and sometimes trash or bats — or an altar or restaurant annex.Now, some of the city’s nearly 700 bomb shelters are being renovated and turned into cultural oases. Some are part of restaurants, while others sprout murals or altars.“It’s a space for life,” said a breakfast shop owner who uses her bunker for storage. “And a space for death.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookJoe Lingeman for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Cyd Raftus McDowell.If you’re celebrating Thanksgiving, try yuca purée. If you’re not, the Brazilian-inspired dish is still a satisfying and creamy side.What to Watch“Mood,” a genre-bending BBC America series, explores online sex work.What to ReadIn his new book, Bob Dylan riffs on 66 songs. Dwight Garner writes that the prose sounds “a lot like his own song lyrics, so much so that part of me wanted this to be a new record instead.”The CosmosAstronomers have found Earth’s closest known black hole. It’s dormant, at least for now.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Tempted with bait (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. My colleague Alexandra Berzon discussed election deniers and the U.S. midterm elections on NPR’s “Fresh Air.”“The Daily” is about the Democrats’ fight for white working class voters.You can always reach us at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      We Don’t Know What Will Happen on Election Day, but We Do Know How We’ll Feel About It

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      Gail Collins: OK, Bret — it’s elections week! Tell me the one outcome you’re most hoping to see and the one you’re most dreading.Bret Stephens: The idea of Herschel Walker being elected a United States senator is the political equivalent of E.L. James, the author of “Fifty Shades of Grey,” being awarded the Nobel Prize for literature: the preposterous elevation of the former equals the total debasement of the latter.On the other hand, and despite my reservations about him, I’m rooting for Lee Zeldin for New York governor. Our state is overtaxed, underpoliced and chronically misgoverned, and I’d like to see it the other way around. And a Republican victory in New York might finally jolt the Democratic Party into getting serious about crime and urban decay.You?Gail: Zeldin is awful. There are New York Republicans you could imagine running the state well, and there are New York Republicans who will inevitably create a mess of political polarization and stalled services. Mr. Z is definitely in that category.Bret: I would be more inclined to agree with you about the overly Trumpy Zeldin — until I consider his opponent, the uninspired, ethically challenged and insipid Kathy Hochul.Gail: In my rooting-for category, I’m going to bring up Senator Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire — just so I can mention her dreadful opponent, Don Bolduc. He’s long been known as an opponent of legal protections for transgender people. Last week, he claimed schools were giving out litter boxes to support kids who identify as cats. Which is, um … not true.Who’s your most-to-be-avoided?Bret: I’m with you on Hassan, a conscientious and bipartisan legislator. Who — I am amazed to say — might lose on Tuesday. As for my most-to-be-avoided? I’d have to go with Arizona’s Blake Masters. He gives me the sense of being the love child of Ayn Rand and Hans Gruber, the Alan Rickman character in “Die Hard.”Gail: I adore it when you get mean about people like ol’ Blake.Bret: Actually, that’s probably unfair to Gruber, who had a twinkle-in-the-eye panache that made his villainy interesting and often funny. Masters is neither interesting nor funny, and his only talent seems to consist in sucking up to rich guys.Gail: You would be referring to Peter Thiel, billionaire co-founder of PayPal and backer of rancid Republicans.Bret: And Donald Trump — assuming he’s actually rich. Let me ask you a different question: Is there any Republican in this whole election cycle you might see yourself supporting?Gail: This goes back to the question I’ve been wrestling with since the world watched that Fetterman-Oz debate.There are plenty of decent Republicans running for Senate, and some who are smarter than their Democratic opponents. And at least one Republican who can out-debate a Democrat who’s recovering from a stroke. But they all share one thing — they’d immediately vote to put their party in power.Bret: They do tend to do that.Gail: And that’s the crucial question this season — which party will be in charge? Right now the partisan rift is so deep you really have to decide which side you want to run the show and let that be your guide.Does that make sense to you?Bret: Yes and no. I powerfully sympathize with the impulse to oppose everyone who belongs to the party of Trump. But the idea of voting for your own side, no matter how lousy the candidate, also explains how Republicans talk themselves into voting for Trump, Walker, Bolduc, Masters and the rest of the evil clown parade. Parties should not be rewarded by voters when they sink to the lowest common denominator.But … predictions! Any upsets you see coming?Gail: When I worry about election results my thoughts almost always turn to Arizona, land of the you-never-can-tell voter. You’ve got Senator Mark Kelly neck-and-neck with Blake Masters. The only positive thing I can think of to say about Masters is that he hasn’t yet expressed any deep concern about litter boxes in public schools.But the most terrifying Arizona race is for governor, where Kari Lake, a former TV anchor and current election denier, appears to be leading Katie Hobbs, the responsible but sorta boring secretary of state. Do not want to imagine the vote-counting crisis there in 2024 if Lake wins.Bret: I’m going to venture that Lake is going to win handily and that Masters will win by a hair.Gail: Aaauuughhh.Bret: Part of my overall prediction that Democrats will wake up on Wednesday morning with a powerful impulse to move to Canada or Belgium to take advantage of their permissive assisted-suicide programs.Gail: And what would your own reaction be, pray tell? I know you theoretically support the Republican Senate agenda, but I’ve noticed you find a lot of the Republican senators kinda … repulsive.Bret: Again, very mixed feelings. Seeing the Republican Party go from bad to worse is depressing and scary. But as long as Joe Biden is president they won’t be able to do much except embarrass themselves.If there’s one saving grace for me here, it’s the faint hope that a Republican majority in at least one house of Congress will pump the brakes on spending. Our gross national debt is $31 trillion and rising. And it’s going to cost more to service as interest rates rise.Gail: I’m touched to hear you express such confidence that the Republicans we’ve seen on the hustings this year are going to be able to come up with a smart plan to completely redo government spending.Bret: Fair point.Gail: My first response to the idea of sane Republican spending policy is sad giggles.But I do feel obliged to offer at least one suggestion. The best way to tackle debt issues is not to cancel Covid relief or stop fixing the nation’s infrastructure. Tax the folks who can afford it, like those pharmaceutical billionaires who’ve done so very well off the pandemic.Bret: Not sure these billionaires could pay off so many trillions in debt, even if we confiscated every penny they have.Gail: It would be a start, and I suspect that even under a very serious new tax plan they’d be left with enough coins in their pockets to allow them to soldier on.But speaking of good/bad government spending plans, what do you think about recent Republican calls to cut back on Social Security and Medicare entitlements?Bret: The devil is in the details. Regarding Social Security, it was designed in the 1930s, when the typical life expectancy was around 60. It’s now around 76. The program is predicted to be insolvent in about 13 years if we do nothing to change it. My basic view is that we should honor our promises to those now benefiting from Social Security, pare back the promises to younger workers and eliminate them completely for those who haven’t yet spent decades paying into them.How about you?Gail: I say leave Social Security alone. It was meant to help protect Americans who reach retirement age, give them a reliable cushion to make their old age comfortable or at least bearable. Can’t do much better than that.The fact that it’s seen as a plan for everybody — not just a program to aid the poor — gives it a special survivability. And on the fairness end, wealthy folk who don’t need it will give a good chunk back when it’s taxed as part of their income.Bret: True, but it’s still going broke.Gail: Of course I’m not crazy enough to say the government can never touch Social Security if its finances get truly shaky. I just want to be sure whoever’s doing the fixing is dedicated to protecting the basic concept.And Medicare — oh gosh, Bret, let’s save Medicare for next week. It can be our postelection calming mechanism.Bret: Gail, I don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but any thoughts on the news that Trump is very likely to declare his candidacy for president later this month?Gail: Now that was the immediate postelection conversation I was yearning to avoid. Of course we knew it was going to happen, but, gee, don’t you think he could have let us have the holidays off?Bret: I know very little about what goes on in Trump’s mind, but I think we can safely say that giving either of us a break isn’t high on his list of priorities.The silver lining here is that if Democrats take the kind of electoral drubbing I suspect they will on Tuesday, it should help concentrate their minds. Time for President Biden to give up on the idea — or fantasy, really — that he’s going to run for re-election and devote his time to saving Ukrainians, Iranians and Taiwanese from tyranny as the centerpiece of his presidential legacy.Gail: I’m with you in the Joe-Don’t-Run camp.Bret: Time also for party strategists to start thinking a whole lot harder about how they lost the working-class vote and how they can recapture it. Time, finally, for Democratic politicians to focus on middle-class fears about crime, education and inflation, not progressive obsessions with social justice and language policing.Who knows? Maybe that’s just the wake-up call we all need if we’re going to keep Trump in Mar-a-Lago.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      John Fetterman and the Fight for White Working-Class Voters

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      Nina Feldman and Dan Powell and Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | StitcherFor the Democrats to hold on to power in Washington, they have to do what President Biden did in Pennsylvania two years ago: Break the Republican Party’s grip on the white working-class vote, once the core of the Democratic base. In tomorrow’s midterm election, no race better encapsulates that challenge than the Pennsylvania Senate candidacy of John Fetterman.Is the plan working or is this crucial group of voters now a lost cause for the Democrats?On today’s episodeShane Goldmacher, a national political reporter for The New York Times.John Fetterman, the Democratic Senate candidate for Pennsylvania, embodies the party’s hope of winning back white working-class voters.Christopher Dolan/The Times-Tribune, via Associated PressBackground readingAmong white working-class voters in places like northeast Pennsylvania, the Democratic Party has both the furthest to fall and the most to gain.In the final days of the Pennsylvania Senate race, Mr. Fetterman has acknowledged that his recovery from a stroke remains a work in progress, leaning into the issue with a mix of humor, sarcasm and notes of empathy. There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.Shane Goldmacher More

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      Confidence, Anxiety and a Scramble for Votes Two Days Before the Midterms

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      As candidates made their closing arguments on Sunday, Democrats braced for potential losses even in traditionally blue corners of the country while Republicans predicted a red wave.DELAWARE COUNTY, Pa. — The turbulent midterm campaign rolled through its final weekend on Sunday as voters — buffeted by record inflation, worries about their personal safety and fears about the fundamental stability of American democracy — showed clear signs of preparing to reject Democratic control of Washington and embrace divided government.As candidates sprinted across the country to make their closing arguments to voters, Republicans entered the final stretch of the race confident they would win control of the House and possibly the Senate. Democrats steeled themselves for potential losses even in traditionally blue corners of the country.On Sunday, President Biden campaigned for Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York in a Yonkers precinct where he won 80 percent of the vote in 2020, signaling the deep challenges facing his party two years after he claimed a mandate to enact a sweeping domestic agenda. Former President Donald J. Trump addressed supporters in Miami, another sign of Republican optimism that the party could flip Florida’s most populous urban county for the first time in two decades.In the rally at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, N.Y., Mr. Biden characterized Election Day and the coming 2024 campaign as “inflection points” for the next 20 years. Voters, he said, had a clear choice between two “fundamentally different visions of America.”Mr. Trump, meanwhile, took the stage for about 90 minutes to blast Democrats as being soft on crime, re-litigate grievances about his presidency and the 2020 election, and boast that he has motivated Hispanic voters, especially in Florida, to shift toward the Republican Party.“We need a landslide so big that the radical left cannot rig or steal it,” he said, minutes before a rainstorm soaked the crowd. “We are going to take back America.”The appearances represented an unusual capstone to an extraordinary campaign — the first post-pandemic, post-Roe, post-Jan. 6 national election in a fiercely divided country shaken by growing political violence and lies about the last major election.While a majority of voters name the economy as their top concern, nearly three-quarters of Americans believe democracy is in peril, with most identifying the opposing party as the major threat. Should Republicans sweep the House contests, their control could empower the party’s right wing, giving an even bigger bullhorn to lawmakers who traffic in conspiracy theories and falsehoods like Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Matt Gaetz of Florida.A gas station in Mineral County, Nev., had gas prices well above $5 a gallon last week. A majority of voters say the economy is their top concern.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesA central question for Democrats is whether such a distinctive moment overrides fierce historical headwinds. Since 1934, nearly every president has lost seats in his first midterm election. And typically, voters punish the party in power for poor economic conditions — dynamics that point toward Republican gains.After days of campaigning across rural Nevada, Adam Laxalt, the Republican challenging Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, rallied supporters in and around Las Vegas this weekend, predicting a “red wave” that is “deep and wide.” Mr. Laxalt noted that Mr. Biden did not campaign in Nevada this year and blamed him for the state’s 15 percent inflation.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.House Democrats: Several moderates elected in 2018 in conservative-leaning districts are at risk of being swept out. That could cost the Democrats their House majority.A Key Constituency: A caricature of the suburban female voter looms large in American politics. But in battleground regions, many voters don’t fit the stereotype.Crime: In the final stretch of the campaigns, politicians are vowing to crack down on crime. But the offices they are running for generally have little power to make a difference.Abortion: The fall of Roe v. Wade seemed to offer Democrats a way of energizing voters and holding ground. Now, many worry that focusing on abortion won’t be enough to carry them to victory.“He’s going to call you anti-democratic for using the democratic system to give us a change,” he told supporters on Saturday in Clark County, the state’s largest county. “But that change is coming.”The midterm’s final landscape hinted that voters were prioritizing fiscal worries over more existential fears about democracy or preserving abortion rights. From liberal northeastern suburbs to Western states, Republican strategists, lawmakers and officials now say they could flip major parts of the country and expand their margins in Southern and Rust Belt states that have been fertile ground for their party for much of the last decade.There were also some early signs that key parts of the coalition that boosted Democrats to victory in 2018 and 2020 — moderate suburban white women and Latino voters — were swinging toward Republican candidates. Top Democratic officials made 11th-hour efforts to shore up their base. Vice President Kamala Harris made stops in Chicago to help Illinois Democrats. The first lady, Jill Biden, traveled to Houston on Sunday, trying to lift party turnout in Harris County, a stronghold for Democrats in Texas.In the House, where Republicans need to flip five seats to control the chamber, the party vied for districts in Democratic bastions, including in Rhode Island, exurban New York, Oregon and California. Republican strategists touted their surprisingly close standing in governor’s races in longer-shot blue states like New York, New Mexico and Oregon.At the same time, the Senate remains a tossup, with candidates locked in near dead-even races in three states — Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania — and tight races in at least another four. Republicans need just one additional seat to win control.“Everyone on the Republican side should be optimistic,” said Senator Rick Scott, a Florida Republican and the head of the Republican Senate campaign arm. Mr. Scott predicted his party would flip the chamber, going beyond the 51 seats needed for control. “If you look at the polls now, we have every reason to think we’ll be over 52.”Lt. Gov. John Fetterman with supporters at a rally in Pittsburgh on Saturday.Ruth Fremson/The New York TimesTwo supporters of Senator Raphael Warnock greeted each other at one of his events in Monroe, Ga., on Thursday.Nicole Craine for The New York TimesFor months, Democratic candidates in key races have outpaced Mr. Biden’s low approval ratings, aided by flawed Republican opponents who had been boosted to primary victories by Mr. Trump. Continuing to outrun the leader of their party grew more difficult as perceptions of the economy worsened and as Republican groups unleashed a fall ad blitz accusing their opponents of being weak on crime.“It’s a close race — it’s a jump ball for sure,” Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the Democrat running for Senate in Pennsylvania against Mehmet Oz, the television personality, told a group of supporters in suburban Philadelphia.Dr. Oz and Mr. Fetterman both spent time in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, battling, in particular, in the crucial swing suburbs. A day after joining Mr. Trump at a rally in the Pittsburgh exurbs, Dr. Oz campaigned with Senator Susan Collins of Maine and Representative Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, two more moderate Republicans.In Georgia, the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley told supporters not to feed into national headlines about Republicans’ strength, as she campaigned with Herschel Walker, the Republican nominee, in the conservative northwest Atlanta exurbs.“Don’t listen to this red wave stuff they’re talking to you about. The win that will happen in Georgia will simply be based on turnout,” she said. “Do more of us show up than they do?”And in the Las Vegas suburbs, former President Bill Clinton appeared with Ms. Cortez Masto to urge a crowd of labor union members to warn their family and friends not to cast a protest vote for Republicans, who he said would be “terrible” for working-class people.“They’re gambling that they have this magic moment where we’ll all be so mad, we’ll stop thinking,” he said. “Between now and Tuesday, people here could change the outcome of this election.”Cheri Beasley, a Democrat running for Senate in North Carolina in a tight race against Representative Ted Budd, spoke to voters in Charlotte, N.C., in September.Logan R. Cyrus for The New York TimesIn the House, the question is how large next year’s Republican majority will be. Some strategists have increased their estimates of how many seats the G.O.P. will gain from a handful to more than 25, which is well over the threshold for control of the chamber. Some of the Democratic challenges are structural: Republicans could pick up three seats just from redistricting according to some estimates, and a wave of Democratic retirements means more than a dozen seats in competitive districts lack incumbents to defend them. Paired with the number of seats leaning Republican or considered tossups, those obstacles are the makings of a landslide if undecided voters break decisively for the party out of power.“It’s not a surprise that this is a tough cycle,” said Sean Patrick Maloney, the head of the Democratic House campaign arm, who is in danger of losing his seat in New York’s Hudson Valley, which Mr. Biden won by 10 percentage points. “We’re very much aware of what we’re up against.”In governor’s races, Republican candidates modeled after Mr. Trump face decidedly mixed prospects, reflecting their party’s struggles with his continued influence. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida seemed poised for re-election, while Kari Lake, the Republican nominee in Arizona, faces a tough battle. Doug Mastriano, the far-right nominee in Pennsylvania, was expected to lose, but Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia and Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio, both of whom clashed with Mr. Trump, appear to have solidified their hold.Kari Lake addressed reporters at a campaign event on Friday, alongside other Republican candidates at the U.S.-Mexico border in Sierra Vista, Ariz.Rebecca Noble for The New York TimesSupporters of Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida gathered at a campaign event in Coconut Creek, Fla., on Friday. Scott McIntyre for The New York TimesIn some ways, the congressional elections are less consequential than some of the state elections, given that Mr. Biden will still be in the White House to block Republican legislation. In Wisconsin and North Carolina, the party is on the verge of breakthroughs in state legislatures that would give it almost total control of their governments.If Republicans gain just a handful of House and Senate seats in North Carolina, Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, faces the prospect of a Republican supermajority, rendering his veto pen obsolete to stop policies like a state abortion ban. If Republicans flip only one of the two State Supreme Court seats up for re-election Tuesday, a Republican-controlled high court could ratify even more gerrymandered state legislative maps that would lock in Republican control for the foreseeable future.“Yes, we’re concerned about it because the Republicans got to draw their own districts,” Mr. Cooper said. “We know this is a very purple, 50-50 state, yet we have a situation with unfair maps of maybe a supermajority.”But the chaotic events of the post-Trump era along with questions about the very mechanics of elections have injected a heavy dose of uncertainty into the outcome of the 2022 midterms.Democratic strategists have been enthusiastic about early voting, saying that it matched or was higher than the turnout two years ago when the party swept the House. More than 30 million ballots have been cast already, exceeding the 2018 total, and the Democratic advantage is 11 percentage points nationwide, even better than in 2018, according to Tom Bonier, the chief executive of TargetSmart, a firm that analyzes political data.But Republican candidates have followed Mr. Trump’s lead in denouncing mail voting and encouraging their voters to cast their ballots on Election Day. So those early Democratic numbers could be swamped by Republican votes on Tuesday.New Yorkers cast their ballots during early voting at a polling station at John Jay High School in Brooklyn on Saturday. More than 30 million ballots have been cast already.Ahmed Gaber for The New York TimesRepublicans, meanwhile, point to polling averages that crept toward the G.O.P. in the final week. But a number of the polls were conducted by Republican-leaning firms, which could influence the outcome of those surveys. And after several cycles of polling underestimating Trump voters, it’s unclear whether pollsters have correctly captured the electorate. “I’ve never been one who has put my bets on any poll, because I think particularly at this time people are not sharing where they are,” said Senator Patty Murray, a Democrat of Washington, who is facing a tough re-election battle in her blue state.Hispanic voters are likely to play a crucial role in Tuesday’s election, though both sides remain uncertain how much the landscape has shifted. In two of the states that are likely to determine control of the Senate — Nevada and Arizona — they make up roughly 20 percent of the electorate. Latinos also account for more than 20 percent of registered voters in more than a dozen hotly contested House races, including in California, Colorado, Florida and New Mexico.“The data itself right now is a picture of uncertainty,” said Carlos Odio, who runs Equis, a Democratic-leaning research firm that focuses on Latino voters. “We’re not seeing further decline for Democratic support, but the party has relied on very high margins in the past.”The audience watched former President Barack Obama at a Democratic rally in Las Vegas on Tuesday. Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesKatie Glueck More