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      Fetterman-Oz Debate Tonight: What to Watch

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      The Pennsylvania Senate debate on Tuesday between Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican, and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, is likely to be among the most widely viewed of all midterm debates. It is a clash of two large personalities, who have by turns mocked and scathingly attacked one another, over matters trivial (fresh vegetables) and deeply serious (violent crime).Interest in the debate, for a contest that is critical to control of the Senate, is sky-high as polls show the race tightening two weeks before Election Day, and because of Mr. Fetterman’s recovery from a stroke two days before the May primary.The 60-minute debate will be broadcast at 8 p.m. Eastern time from a TV studio in Harrisburg, Pa. There will be no live audience. Here is what to watch for:How Fetterman soundsMr. Fetterman still has difficulty processing spoken words, and he will read the two moderators’ questions and Dr. Oz’s responses on large monitors with closed captions. The Fetterman campaign warns that the accommodation could slow down his responses, and it worries that Republicans will try to make snippets of the debate go viral with Mr. Fetterman’s pauses and dropped or slurred words. The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.Florida Governor’s Debate: Gov. Ron DeSantis and Charlie Crist, his Democratic challenger,  had a rowdy exchange on Oct. 24. Here are the main takeaways from their debate.Strategy Change: In the final stretch before the elections, some Democrats are pushing for a new message that acknowledges the economic uncertainty troubling the electorate.Last Dance?: As she races to raise money to hand on to her embattled House majority, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is in no mood to contemplate a Democratic defeat, much less her legacy.Secretary of State Races: Facing G.O.P. candidates who spread lies about the 2020 election, Democrats are outspending them 57-to-1 on TV ads for their secretary of state candidates. It still may not be enough.Major style differencesDon’t expect quick-witted repartee. The candidates have big differences in style. Dr. Oz spent 13 years as a TV host and has transitioned from an empathetic broadcast persona into a political candidate with sharp, succinct attack lines. Mr. Fetterman, even before his stroke, was a so-so debater with a meandering, regular-guy speaking style.Oz’s shift away from Fetterman’s healthA month ago, the Oz campaign was mockingly calling attention to Mr. Fetterman’s refusal to commit to a series of debates (a spokeswoman said he might not have had a stroke if he’d eaten his vegetables). But after the intense focus on the Democrat’s health appeared to produce a backlash, Dr. Oz’s camp now says it will stick to the candidates’ policy differences and to highlight what it calls Mr. Fetterman’s “extremism.”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Who’s the real Pennsylvanian?Mr. Fetterman will likely attack his opponent as a “Hollywood doctor” who owns several houses, only moved to the state in 2020 and has poured $23 million of his fortune into the race. Dr. Oz may come back with the defense that he earned his fortune, while Mr. Fetterman received an allowance from his family until he was nearly 50. (He collected only a token salary as mayor of Braddock, Pa., for 13 years.)Attacks over abortionPerhaps Mr. Fetterman’s strongest issue against Dr. Oz, and one crucial in the battle for suburban voters, is Dr. Oz’s right-wing tack on abortion since he entered politics. Look for Mr. Fetterman to call attention to a statement Dr. Oz made that life begins at conception and terminating a pregnancy any time is “still murder.” A focus on crimeThis is the issue that Dr. Oz has leaned into most aggressively, accusing Mr. Fetterman of coddling criminals because of his advocacy for clemency for long-incarcerated men convicted of murder. Dr. Oz calls him “the most pro-murderer candidate” in the country. Viewers may hear Dr. Oz name individuals and their crimes for whom Mr. Fetterman advocated clemency. The focus on crime, especially homicides and street violence in Philadelphia, is meant to stir fears by voters outside the city. How will Mr. Fetterman defend his leadership of the state pardons board and his support for criminal justice reform?Energy and frackingWestern Pennsylvania has major reserves of natural gas. Because Mr. Fetterman cultivates an appeal to blue-collar union voters, especially in the Pittsburgh region, Dr. Oz will most likely seek to undermine him by attacking his past opposition to fracking, which provides thousands of jobs. Mr. Fetterman supports fracking now, but as recently as 2018 he opposed it. More

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      Pelosi’s Last Dance? Speaker Sprints Across U.S. as Republicans Close In.

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      The speaker, busy raising millions, is in no mood to contemplate a Democratic defeat in November, much less discuss her legacy.DOWNERS GROVE, Ill. — It has long been known that Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the first woman to hold the post second in line to the presidency, does not sleep much. These days, as she races in and out of cities across the nation in a grueling, nonstop push for campaign money to hang on to her embattled House majority, even her bedtime hours are consumed with thoughts of how to win.“I don’t count sheep at night; I count districts,” Ms. Pelosi, a California Democrat and longtime party leader, said during a closing blitz across the Midwest on behalf of battleground House candidates crucial to any remaining hope that Democrats have of surviving a Republican onslaught. “I go one by one by one.”The big question is whether she can count to 218, the number required to maintain control of the House — and one that a growing number of independent handicappers believe is out of reach for Democrats.Even as she follows every twist and turn on the House map, the reality is that this could well be Ms. Pelosi’s final trip around the track as party leader. The majority she has built and carefully nurtured — not once, but twice — is in jeopardy of falling under the weight of public fears about crime and inflation along with heavy Republican campaign spending and the traditional midterm drag on a president’s party in Congress.But if this is her final race, Ms. Pelosi is running through the tape, trying to ensure her candidates have the resources to compete as Republicans pour on the cash. Ms. Pelosi is an 82-year-old juggernaut in Armani, behaving as if holding the House rests in her hands alone. In some ways it does; she is not only the well-established national face of the House majority, but is also by far its most prolific fund-raiser.“My time is money,” Ms. Pelosi said as she lamented the opportunity cost of talking to a reporter when she could be working her cellphone instead.The lifetime returns on Ms. Pelosi’s investment of time and energy are staggering. Since assuming the party’s House leadership in 2002, she has brought in $1.25 billion for Democrats, according to a party tally, including $42.7 million in the third quarter of this year alone. Her haul so far this election cycle is $276 million, reaped at more than 400 events. Just this month, she has visited more than 20 cities. (After a three-day, four-state Midwestern swing last week, she departed on Sunday for a quick trip to Croatia for meetings on Ukraine.)The tour that touched down last week in Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota and Illinois generated $380,000 that went directly into the accounts of Democrats in some of the toughest races in the nation, must-wins that could benefit from a final burst of cash. Ms. Pelosi — sometimes better known for the legislative acrobatics she has often performed to keep her party’s agenda on track and Democrats united behind it — is now in constant campaign mode, regularly holding Zoom calls with candidates and briefings for thousands of volunteers.Her energy level amazes and inspires her troops.“When I wake up in the morning and feel a little bit tired, I think of Nancy Pelosi,” said Representative Brenda Lawrence, 68, a retiring Michigan Democrat who introduced the speaker at a private fund-raising reception with labor and civic leaders along Detroit’s riverfront. “I put the lipstick on and say, ‘We’ve got to go.’”To Republicans, the speaker remains a favored weapon to deploy against vulnerable candidates, although they have done so with mixed results. They lace their campaign ads and fund-raising appeals with calls to “fire Pelosi” as they try to link the liberal congresswoman from San Francisco to targeted Democrats in conservative-leaning districts, such as Representative Abigail Spanberger in north-central Virginia.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.A G.O.P. Advantage: Republicans appear to be gaining an edge in the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains why the mood of the electorate has shifted.Ohio Senate Race: Tim Ryan, the Democrat who is challenging J.D. Vance, has turned the state into perhaps the country’s unlikeliest Senate battleground.Losing Faith in the System: As democracy erodes in Wisconsin, many of the state’s citizens feel powerless. But Republicans and Democrats see different culprits and different risks.Secretary of State Races: Facing G.O.P. candidates who spread lies about the 2020 election, Democrats are outspending them 57-to-1 on TV ads for their secretary of state candidates. It still may not be enough.“Abigail Spanberger votes 100 percent with Pelosi,” said a recent attack ad from a Republican group with ties to Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, who hopes to succeed Ms. Pelosi next year. “It is like having our very own Pelosi mini-me.”Among Americans at large, Ms. Pelosi remains a polarizing figure who can provoke a sharp backlash, one Republicans constantly try to capitalize on. She is not the most charismatic speaker and can be abrupt and impatient with the media. But on the campaign trail, she exhibits a single-mindedness that has won her the deep allegiance of most of her colleagues.On the ground, Democrats enthusiastically embrace the speaker during her visits, welcoming not only the financial help but also the attention she can bring to local projects and the benefits of party policies. Her folk-hero status among Democrats was only elevated by a recently revealed behind-the-scenes video from the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol showing her pressing for more help from the military to put down the attack, threatening to punch out Donald J. Trump, and checking on the well-being of Vice President Mike Pence — all while opening a sausage snack with her teeth.As she campaigned last week, she carried in her purse a sausage wrapped with a bow presented to her by a fan.“She is masterful,” said Representative Haley Stevens, a Michigan Democrat who appeared with Ms. Pelosi to promote the benefits of Democratic climate change legislation for an electric vehicle battery start-up in her district just outside Detroit. The new company is providing well-paying jobs now and the possibility of American-produced batteries later..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.“I don’t think we should run away from accomplishments, and I also don’t think we should run away from Democratic leaders,” Ms. Stevens said.As she hopscotches the states with an entourage of staff members and security, Ms. Pelosi rejects the suggestion that late-breaking trends seem to favor Republicans, even though polls and election analysts clearly show that Democrats are in increasing trouble. She has zero patience for reminders that history shows the president’s party almost always loses seats in the midterms, and she levels a steely stare at the mere mention that her time as speaker may be drawing to a close.“Forget that,” she said in an interview, dismissing the dark talk of Democratic defeat as ill-informed punditry. “We are talking about the future. I don’t care about what happened in 1946.”Ms. Pelosi joined Representative Haley Stevens, Democrat of Michigan, on a tour of an energy company focused on electric vehicle batteries in Novi, Mich., last week.Sylvia Jarrus for The New York Times“I don’t think we should run away from accomplishments, and I also don’t think we should run away from Democratic leaders,’’ Ms. Stevens said.Sylvia Jarrus for The New York TimesData aside, Ms. Pelosi said she simply finds it hard to fathom that Republicans could actually win.“Part of it is, I cannot believe anybody would vote for these people,” she said, describing Republicans’ midterm campaign strategy as “endless lying and endless money.”In Illinois, Ms. Pelosi flew in for a handful of candidates she needed to get over the finish line, including Representatives Sean Casten of Illinois and Frank Mrvan from a nearby Indiana district, and candidates Nikki Budzinski and Eric Sorensen, both running for open seats in Illinois.Posing for cellphone pictures with anyone who sought one, Ms. Pelosi used the venue of a sleek work space in a downtown skyscraper to make the case for her contenders and warn of the threat posed by a Republican takeover.“The urgency of saving our democracy is real,” Ms. Pelosi said, adding that she hated to be a “fearmonger,” but that the moment required it.Ms. Pelosi signing a book during a round table with reproductive rights supporters in Downers Grove, Ill.Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesMs. Pelosi listening to Representative Sean Casten speak. Mr. Casten is among a handful of Illinois Democrats running in tight elections.Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesThen she traveled to this western suburb represented by Mr. Casten to meet with health care professionals at a sprawling medical complex and hear about the dangers posed by new restrictions on abortion, even in a state where the procedure is still allowed. Ms. Pelosi frequently emphasizes that Republican goals go beyond limiting access to abortion to restrictions on contraception, noting that just a handful of House Republicans supported a Democratic measure this summer guaranteeing access to birth control.“What right does a judge or a member of Congress have to come to the kitchen table of America’s families and weigh in on size and timing of the family?” she asked during her appearance at Advocate Good Samaritan Hospital, portraying women as the key to the election.“Your right to choose is on the ballot,” she told the group of doctors, medical workers and abortion rights advocates. “If women vote, women will win.”In an interview, Ms. Pelosi disputed the idea that abortion was fading as a driving issue after giving Democrats a lift following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June. But she hopes that view lulls Republicans into complacency.“You think that. You go think that,” she said of Republicans. “I can tell you, it is not in the rearview mirror.”What is to become of Ms. Pelosi should Democrats fall short? Will she step aside and conclude an iconic 35-year career in office, sparking an internal power struggle? In securing the speakership in 2019, she pledged she would not pursue that post after her term ending in January, but she has recently balked at questions on the subject, saying she is focused first on the midterms.“Do you think I would respond to that question?” the speaker asked when pressed about whether she harbored any feeling that she was on a valedictory tour.For Ms. Pelosi, the frenzied journey to Nov. 8 is not a last hurrah — it’s just her latest sprint to the finish.“Conventional wisdom says we might want to go to the beach,” she said. “No, you go to the fight.”“There is one answer,” she added. “Win.” More

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      Four Takeaways From the DeSantis-Crist Debate in Florida’s Governor Race

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      Gov. Ron DeSantis and Charlie Crist, his Democratic challenger, debated for the only time in the Florida governor’s race on Monday, a rowdy exchange featuring a raucous crowd and a slew of culture war issues that have dominated the state’s political discourse.Mr. Crist, a former congressman and governor with plenty of debate experience, gave a polished performance as he went on the attack. But no single moment from Mr. Crist seemed like it would upend the dynamics of the contest. Public polls show Mr. DeSantis, a Republican, comfortably ahead in the race, a rarity for Florida, which until recently had some of the tightest contests in the nation.The debate, initially scheduled for Oct. 12, was postponed because of Hurricane Ian, a destructive Category 4 storm that struck Southwest Florida on Sept. 28, killing more than 100 people.The moderator, Liz Quirantes of WPEC, struggled to keep quiet the audience in Fort Pierce, which regularly applauded, cheered, jeered and interrupted the exchanges. Some of Ms. Quirantes’s questions, which she said came from viewers, appeared to be leading the candidates toward conservative points of view. WPEC is a CBS affiliate owned by the Sinclair Broadcast Group.Here are four takeaways:The DeSantis White House speculation isn’t going away.Mr. Crist repeatedly cast Mr. DeSantis as more interested in running for president in 2024 than in governing Florida.“Governor DeSantis has taken his eye off the ball,” Mr. Crist said, accusing the governor of focusing on national issues and fund-raising outside the state. (Mr. DeSantis has far out-raised Mr. Crist.)Twice, Mr. Crist asked Mr. DeSantis point-blank if he would serve a full, four-year term if re-elected. Mr. DeSantis ignored the question as the moderator noted that the candidates had agreed not to ask each other questions.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.A G.O.P. Advantage: Republicans appear to be gaining an edge in the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains why the mood of the electorate has shifted.Ohio Senate Race: Tim Ryan, the Democrat who is challenging J.D. Vance, has turned the state into perhaps the country’s unlikeliest Senate battleground.Losing Faith in the System: As democracy erodes in Wisconsin, many of the state’s citizens feel powerless. But Republicans and Democrats see different culprits and different risks.Secretary of State Races: Facing G.O.P. candidates who spread lies about the 2020 election, Democrats are outspending them 57-to-1 on TV ads for their secretary of state candidates. It still may not be enough.“The only worn-out old donkey I’m looking to put out to pasture is Charlie Crist,” Mr. DeSantis said.The governor frequently turned his attention to President Biden, the Democrat he would most likely challenge if he were to seek the presidency, and tried to tie him to Mr. Crist. Mr. Biden’s approval rating is underwater in Florida, though the president still plans to travel to the state to rally for Mr. Crist and other Democrats next week.“Charlie Crist has voted with Joe Biden 100 percent of the time to give us these inflationary policies and to drive up the costs of everything that we’re doing,” Mr. DeSantis said.The partisan crowd was raucous inside the debate on Monday night, as well as outside the theater beforehand.Marco Bello/ReutersThe death toll from Hurricane Ian became a sticking point.At least 114 people died because of Hurricane Ian in Florida, making it the deadliest storm in the state in almost 90 years. Many of the dead were older or vulnerable people who became trapped in their homes or cars and drowned. The New York Times found that Lee County, home to the hard-hit city of Fort Myers, did not follow its own plans for evacuating people ahead of the hurricane.Mr. Crist accused Mr. DeSantis of not using his bully pulpit to encourage people to get out before the storm made landfall — and noted that more than 82,000 Floridians have died during the coronavirus pandemic under Mr. DeSantis’s watch.“Whether it comes to Covid or it comes to the hurricane, Ron ignored science,” Mr. Crist said.Mr. DeSantis countered that evacuations are mandated by county officials and not by the state. “Our message was, ‘Listen to your locals,’” he said. “It’s ultimately a local decision. But I stand by every one of our local counties.”Neither Mr. DeSantis nor Mr. Crist answered the question about whether there should be limits on construction along the Florida coast given the increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. Mr. Crist blamed Mr. DeSantis for allowing the state’s property insurance market to fray; Mr. DeSantis countered that insurance rates had risen because of excessive lawsuits.DeSantis made false and misleading statements about abortion.It was clear from the start that Mr. Crist was eager to talk about abortion, one of Democrats’ preferred topics in an otherwise unfavorable election cycle. The first question was about housing policy, but he began by saying the election was “a stark contrast between somebody who believes in a woman’s right to choose” and Mr. DeSantis, who signed a 15-week abortion ban that, Mr. Crist emphasized, includes no exceptions for rape and incest.Later, asked whether abortion should be banned after a specific week in pregnancy, Mr. DeSantis made a number of false or misleading claims.He accused Mr. Crist of supporting abortion “up until the moment of birth.” That is a common Republican claim, but abortion until the moment of birth doesn’t exist, even in states without gestational limits. He also said Mr. Crist supported “dismemberment abortions,” a pejorative term for procedures performed later in pregnancy that, when they do happen, are often prompted by medical emergencies or severe fetal abnormalities. (More than 92 percent of abortions in the United States are performed much earlier, in the first trimester.)‘Culture war’ issues took up a lot of bandwidth.More than perhaps any other sitting governor, Mr. DeSantis has used issues like race and transgender rights to stir up his conservative base.That was on display in Monday’s debate, in which he gave a graphic and inaccurate description of gender-affirming care for transgender children, suggesting falsely that doctors were “mutilating” minors. In reality, gender-affirming care — which major medical associations, including pediatric associations, endorse — primarily involves social support, nonpermanent treatments like puberty blockers (which Mr. DeSantis also denounced), and hormonal treatments.Mr. Crist responded by bringing the topic, once again, back to abortion: “This reminds me of your position on a woman’s right to choose,” he said. “You think you know better than any physician or any doctor or any woman in a position to make decisions about their own personal health.”In a segment on education, Mr. DeSantis also repeated his frequent claims that Democrats like Mr. Crist want to teach white children to view themselves as oppressors because of their race. He acknowledged that it was important for history curriculums to include “all of American history,” including slavery and segregation, but said: “I’m proud of our history. I don’t want to teach kids to hate our country.”Mr. Crist scoffed at the idea that children were being taught to hate themselves or each other, saying, “I don’t know where you get that idea” — and then accusing Mr. DeSantis of focusing on the issue to avoid talking about abortion. More

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      How a Democrat in Suburban Minneapolis Made His District Blue

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      Dean Phillips, a congressman in suburban Minneapolis, has made his seat safely Democratic thanks in part to his unconventional style and in part to the shifting political landscape.BLOOMINGTON, Minn. — It’s a little after 2 p.m., and beads of sweat are forming on the brow of Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota. He’s wielding a two-foot crowbar to yank up rotten floorboards in the kitchen of a century-old home along Minnehaha Creek in Minneapolis, and working fast.“How can you not love this?” Phillips, now upstairs, exclaims as he prepares to saw a hole in the wall of the house’s newly redesigned master bedroom. Despite his staff’s efforts to warn him, he steps on a nail. It’s a short one, thankfully, that doesn’t pierce the sole of his sneaker, and he gets right back to it.Welcome to “On the Job With Dean” — unconventional politicking for an unconventional politician, a suburban Democratic lawmaker whose fortunes say a lot about American politics in 2022. On this particular autumn day, Phillips is moonlighting with a demolition crew for a local contractor, part of a series of odd jobs he takes on, he told me, to feel grounded.In an age when political outsiders are often held up as breaths of fresh air and career politicians are widely reviled, Phillips, a 53-year-old liquor and ice cream entrepreneur whose grandmother was “Dear Abby” and whose mother was a clothier for Prince, labors hard not to look like a traditional pol. Campaign rallies are not his thing. On any given day, you might find him mixing drinks at an ax-throwing bar inside the Mall of America, dipping “witches’ fingers” at a candy factory or driving a 20-ton snowplow through a serpentine training course.In 2018, he flipped this district, a mostly upper-middle-class area of single-family homes and shopping malls that hugs the western border of Minneapolis, to Democratic control for the first time since 1960. His Republican opponent, Erik Paulsen, had won the district by 14 percentage points just two years earlier.Phillips working in a house in Minneapolis during one of his “On the Job With Dean” outings, in which he takes on various types of odd jobs so that, he says, he feels grounded in his district.Blake Hounshell/The New York TimesPhillips ran a nostalgia-infused campaign calling for civility and “conversation,” while ruthlessly defining Paulsen as a no-show with a memorable, documentary-style ad featuring a man dressed in a Bigfoot suit.“I thought I was good at hiding,” Bigfoot muses. “Then Erik Paulsen comes along.”Phillips won by 12 points in 2018, then again by the same margin in 2020. Since then, Republicans have essentially given up on the seat — a silent tribute due in part to his astute political instincts, in part to widespread aversion to Donald Trump in Minnesota and in part to the deeper demographic shifts that presaged Phillips’s 2018 win.“It was a Mitt Romney district,” said Abou Amara, a Democratic strategist in Minneapolis. “Most of those Republicans aren’t coming back.”A tale of two suburbsRepublican operatives are focusing instead on winning back what is proving to be more fertile territory this year: the nearby Second Congressional District, held by Representative Angie Craig.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.A G.O.P. Advantage: Republicans appear to be gaining an edge in the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains why the mood of the electorate has shifted.Ohio Senate Race: Tim Ryan, the Democrat who is challenging J.D. Vance, has turned the state into perhaps the country’s unlikeliest Senate battleground.Losing Faith in the System: As democracy erodes in Wisconsin, many of the state’s citizens feel powerless. But Republicans and Democrats see different culprits and different risks.Secretary of State Races: Facing G.O.P. candidates who spread lies about the 2020 election, Democrats are outspending them 57-to-1 on TV ads for their secretary of state candidates. It still may not be enough.Also a former business executive, Craig holds positions that are almost identical to Phillips’s. But she is much more conventional in style, which might help explain her plight.While Phillips seems almost driven to prove that “No Labels”-style centrism does not have to be boring and poll-tested, Craig appears determined to hunker down and play by the old rules. That caution has made her more vulnerable to the gale-force national winds bearing down on generic Democrats in swing districts across the country.But the deeper differences between their two districts are more important, which says a lot about how America’s two major political parties see their shifting fortunes in suburbia in these midterms — often, but wrongly, described as an undifferentiated campaign battleground.On the surface, the two districts look similar, with income levels that are roughly the same. But Craig’s, which stretches to the Wisconsin border, is larger and less dense. It includes more blue-collar and rural voters, and has long been the more culturally conservative of the two.The biggest gap may be in education levels: Nearly 52 percent of residents in Phillips’s district have at least a college degree, while only 42 percent of those in Craig’s do, a figure more comparable to other swing districts nationally. Phillips’s district is slightly more diverse, too: Nearly 13 percent of residents there were born abroad, versus just over 9 percent in Craig’s district.Those subtle distinctions are enough to give Republicans an opening. So while both seats have swung toward Democrats in the Trump era, Craig’s race has become one of the most hotly contested and most expensive campaigns in the country, with more than $10 million pouring in from outside Republican groups. By contrast, Phillips and his opponent have spent about $200,000 combined — essentially nothing.This year, in a freakish reprise of what happened in 2020, one of Craig’s opponents, the candidate of the Legal Marijuana Now party, died in early October. So not only must she contend with a Republican adversary, Tyler Kistner, who is well-funded and has decent name recognition after coming up just 2.2 percentage points short of Craig in 2020, but the deceased marijuana candidate also remains on the ballot and threatens to siphon votes from her left.Phillips’s “Government Repair Truck” offers “coffee and conversation” to would-be constituents.Blake Hounshell/The New York TimesCan Democrats rebrand?An heir to a local liquor company who co-founded the gelato business Talenti, then sold it to Unilever in 2014 for a tidy profit, Phillips approaches politics like a branding exercise. And in his mind, Democrats have a branding problem.From Talenti, he learned to appreciate the power of nostalgia for a simpler time in America, he told me — but not, he stressed, of the exclusionary Make America Great Again variety.In 2018, he began traveling around the district in a vintage 1960s delivery van called the “Government Repair Truck,” offering “coffee and conversation” to would-be constituents. It became a campaign signature, and “everyone’s invited” became his tagline and unofficial motto. (There was also, briefly, the barely seaworthy “Government Repair Pontoon Boat.” And soon, the “Government Repair Ice Shed” will be hauled onto the frozen surface of Lake Minnetonka for ice fishing.)When Phillips was growing up, his stepfather made him work in the warehouse of their alcohol business, and he learned the art of retail politics, he said, while going on sales calls to liquor stores.“My dad always said that selling starts with listening,” Phillips told me as we ate French fries and Juicy Lucy cheeseburgers, a Minneapolis delicacy that, judging from his slim frame, he rarely eats. On sales calls, he made sure to ask what varieties of liquor were hot and adjust his pitch accordingly.“On the Job With Dean” is just one of several branded “series,” as his team calls them, in Phillips’s political arsenal.There’s also “Surprise and Delight,” where Phillips drops off doughnuts and hoovers up scraps of intel from police and fire units, such as the latest local trends in recruitment of new officers and firefighters, car theft and ambulance calls; “Civics 101,” in which he delivers a guest lecture on democracy at high schools; and “Common Ground,” a two-hour event moderated by a licensed marriage counselor and featuring four liberals and four conservatives who are paired together, then told to come up with solutions to thorny public policy problems.Phillips seems to recognize, however, that merely changing the packaging of run-of-the-mill Democratic positions is not enough. He co-sponsored a bill this year to fund the police, and his House office in Washington made sure I knew about it. This summer, he became the first Democrat in Congress to call for President Biden not to run in 2024, a position he took, he told me, because it’s “what I believe.”Some in the Minnesota Democratic Party are urging Phillips to run for Senate, in the much-rumored event that one of the state’s two incumbent Democrats retires soon. As many as 10 candidates are likely to run, local Democrats said, given how rarely those seats open up.At our lunch, Phillips confessed his worry that running for Senate would pull him away from the kind of local engagement “I find joy in most.” It would also force him to raise millions of dollars, a task he abhors, and to travel constantly. Senator Amy Klobuchar, a close Phillips ally, once promised to visit all of Minnesota’s 87 counties every year, an exhausting vow that has become the new statewide campaign standard. But Phillips didn’t rule it out entirely.For the moment, he is running for a House leadership position — co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, a sleepy group whose influence is hard to identify, positive or otherwise. He is campaigning for the job in typical Phillips fashion, most recently by handing out custom-branded packets of wildflower seeds on the House floor that say “Let’s Grow!” on the packaging.Earlier, as we pulled up to the snowplow course, Phillips showed me a years-old photograph of him sitting at the desk of Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont, for whom he interned in 1989. It took him years to screw up the courage to tell Leahy, who is now retiring, that he had sneaked into the senator’s office while he was out of town.“That’s the first time I sat in a place of power,” he recalled. “And I liked the feeling.”What to readDemocratic candidates are struggling to find a closing message on the economy that both acknowledges voters’ troubles while making the case that the party in power, not Republicans, holds the solutions, Jonathan Weisman and Neil Vigdor report.“Most political races are about authenticity on some level: who tries too hard, who doesn’t try hard enough, who can read the electorate without staring,” Matt Flegenheimer writes. Tim Ryan, he says, “has made Ohio perhaps the country’s unlikeliest Senate battleground by taking this premise to its logical extreme.”John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania, faces twin challenges in his debate on Tuesday night against Mehmet Oz: making the case for his policies while convincing voters he is healthy enough to serve, write Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Trip Gabriel.For the first time in 70 years, America’s largest majority Black city may not send a Black representative to Washington. Clyde McGrady reports from Detroit.Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

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      Fearing a New Shellacking, Democrats Rush for Economic Message

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      Democratic candidates, facing what increasingly looks like a reckoning in two weeks, are struggling to find a closing message on the economy that acknowledges the deep uncertainty troubling the electorate while making the case that they, not the Republicans, hold the solutions.For some time, the party’s candidates and strategists have debated whether to hit inflation head on or to heed warnings that any shift toward an economic message would be ending the campaign on the strongest possible Republican ground. Since midsummer, when the Supreme Court repealed Roe v. Wade, Democrats had hoped that preserving the 50-year-old constitutional right to an abortion and castigating Republican extremism could get them past the worst inflation in 40 years.That is looking increasingly like wishful thinking.On Monday, Democrats unveiled new messages that appeared to switch tacks, incorporating achievements of the past two years with expressions of sympathy on the economy and dire warnings for what Republicans might bring.Former Representative Steve Israel, who headed the House Democrats’ campaign arm in a strong cycle of 2012 and weak one in 2014, said the dispute over how to address voters’ economic distress was essentially being resolved in favor of trying to accomplish a political feat that he said would be the trickiest he has ever seen: Democrats would continue to hammer Republicans on abortion and their ties to former President Donald J. Trump to boost turnout among their core supporters, while simultaneously trying to win over undecided voters whose biggest concerns are inflation and crime.“There was a narrative at one point that this was a Roe v. Wade election,” said Representative Tom Malinowski of New Jersey, whose district, newly drawn to lean Republican, has made him one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents in the House. “I never thought it was going to be that simple.”On Friday, four veteran Democratic strategists published a piece in The American Prospect, the liberal magazine, that pleaded with Democrats to find a new message that acknowledges the pain of rising prices and answers voter concerns. To do that, they argued, candidates need to convey their legislative successes while setting up culprits other than themselves: Republicans who voted against popular measures like capping the price of insulin, and wealthy corporations that are jacking up prices and reaping more profits.Voters “want to know you understand what is going on in their lives,” the strategists wrote. “They want to know you are helping with their No. 1 problem and have a plan. They want to know the difference between Democrats and Republicans when they cast their votes.” The piece was written by Patrick Gaspard, president of the liberal Center for American Politics; Stanley Greenberg and Celinda Lake, veteran Democratic pollsters; and Mike Lux, a senior White House aide under President Bill Clinton.Ms. Lake, in an interview on Saturday, said Democratic strategists were “extremely concerned” that the wave of support the party saw over the summer was evaporating at the worst possible time. But she insisted there was time, with barely two weeks to go, to correct course.“A lot of candidates aren’t really clear about what the economic message is,” she said. “What we need to do is set up a more vivid contrast. People are getting more pessimistic about the economy.”To some Democrats, liberals and moderates alike, the reluctance of frontline candidates to talk up the party’s achievements has been maddening. Faiz Shakir, a longtime political adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders, the progressive mainstay from Vermont, called a campaign built around abortion and former President Donald J. Trump “political malpractice.”Representative Nancy Pelosi during a news conference on the Inflation Reduction Act.Shuran Huang for The New York TimesIn two years, the party has passed a trillion-dollar infrastructure bill, a generous tax credit for parents that brought child poverty to historic lows, legislation that made good on the popular, longstanding promise to allow Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices, and the biggest investment in clean energy in history — all achievements that could be framed as helping people cope with rising prices.An ad launched on Monday by a Democratic super PAC in the Minnesota district of moderate Representative Angie Craig makes that point. And Mr. Sanders pressed it on Sunday, on CNN’s “State of the Union,” saying Republicans have said little about what they would do, and what they have said — like forcing cuts to entitlements like Medicare and Social Security and extending Mr. Trump’s 2017 tax cuts — would be unpopular, make the problem worse, or both.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.A G.O.P. Advantage: Republicans appear to be gaining an edge in the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains why the mood of the electorate has shifted.Ohio Senate Race: Tim Ryan, the Democrat who is challenging J.D. Vance, has turned the state into perhaps the country’s unlikeliest Senate battleground.Losing Faith in the System: As democracy erodes in Wisconsin, many of the state’s citizens feel powerless. But Republicans and Democrats see different culprits and different risks.Secretary of State Races: Facing G.O.P. candidates who spread lies about the 2020 election, Democrats are outspending them 57-to-1 on TV ads for their secretary of state candidates. It still may not be enough.“They want to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid at a time when millions of seniors are struggling to pay their bills,” Mr. Sanders said. “Do you think that’s what we should be doing? Democrats should take that to them.”But for the party in control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, finding an effective message will be difficult, if not impossible. Republicans are evincing no fears of any Democratic shifts.“Democrats are out of time and out of solutions when it comes to fixing the rising costs they handed voters — now they’re going to pay the price at the ballot box,” said Michael McAdams, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of House Republicans.In the 2010 midterms, then-President Barack Obama barnstormed the country with a message that Republicans had driven the country’s economy into a ditch, and Democrats had pulled the car out. Then voters delivered what Mr. Obama himself called a “shellacking,” giving Republicans 63 total seats in the House and seven in the Senate, the largest shift since 1948.David Axelrod, Mr. Obama’s chief political adviser, recalled telling the president-elect in 2008 that Democrats would face a reckoning in 2010 after two successive wave elections and the most dire financial crisis since the Depression. After Democrats passed a huge economic stimulus bill, other economic measures like legislation to help consumers trade in their “clunker” cars for more efficient models, and a landmark regulation of Wall Street, they could say they had made progress on the economy.“But people didn’t feel the car was out of the ditch yet,” Mr. Axelrod said, “and they were looking to the guy who was in there now.”The lesson of 2010 was not to avoid the subject but to acknowledge the pain and set up a choice. Two years later, with the economic shock of the financial crisis still lingering, the Obama campaign made fighting for the middle class the central message of a re-election bid against a Republican candidate, Mitt Romney, who was painted as the essence of the out-of-touch plutocrat.“It was never going to work to not talk about the economy,” Mr. Axelrod said. “That’s sort of like, ‘How was the play otherwise, Mrs. Lincoln?’”If voter anguish in 2022 is similar to 2010, the economic issues are different. Unemployment is at record lows in several states. The issue is more a shortage of workers than a shortage of jobs. Wage growth is robust. But inflation — which lends itself to an attendant fear of the future and pervasive sense of falling behind — is a particularly destabilizing force. It helped topple Liz Truss, the British prime minister, after only six chaotic weeks, and helped usher in an Italian government that descends from Mussolini’s fascism.Ms. Truss’s support collapsed after her conservative economic plan of tax cuts skewed to the rich sent financial markets in a tailspin. The British pound also sank to near record lows against the dollar, and economists warned of still worse inflation. Representative Ro Khanna, a liberal Democrat from California, said Democrats needed to harness that experience to point out that Republican leaders have a similar economic plan if they take control of Congress.“The Republicans are running on an explicit promise of extending Trump’s tax cuts,” he said. “We have to frame the election as a choice on the economy.”Mr. Khanna was campaigning for Democrats in South Carolina on Saturday. He said the party’s candidates needed to answer the inflation question by hammering home the argument that Republican fiscal policies translate to tax cuts for the wealthy and sending jobs overseas.“We’ve got to do a better job having a clear economic message,” Mr. Khanna said. “I don’t think we can say, ‘Woe is me. Gas prices are going up.’”But Republicans, out of power, with no responsibility for much of the legislation of the Biden era, have a ready answer, which they have used with success: All those “achievements” created the inflation problem, by stoking consumer demand at a time when supply could not keep up. The U.S. economy was not prepared for a rapid shift from fossil fuels, their argument goes, so Democratic efforts to address climate change sent gas prices soaring. And Democratic promises for still more government assistance will only keep prices rising.Senator Mike Lee, a Utah Republican in an unexpectedly competitive re-election fight, has taken to quoting the Nobel Prize-winning conservative economist Milton Friedman on inflation repeatedly: “Consumers don’t produce it. Producers don’t produce it. The trade unions don’t produce it. Foreign sheikhs don’t produce it. Oil imports don’t produce it. What produces it is too much government spending.”That may be oversimplified in today’s strange economy. Some price increases were triggered by supply chains snarled by the pandemic that created pent-up consumer demand after periods of confinement and shuttered factories and shipping industries that were slow to return to peak production. Tight energy supplies and ensuing gas price increases are far more attributable to the war in Ukraine than any domestic energy legislation. Inflation is a global problem that is worse in Europe and Britain than in the United States.A gas station in Wilkes-Barre, Pa.Aimee Dilger/ReutersBut most economists do believe some Democratic bills — especially the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan — exacerbated the problem. The $1,400 checks that most American households received in 2021 have been forgotten. Their contribution to an overheated consumer economy has not.The latest Republican attack ads hit inflation and economic uncertainty hard and lay the blame on Democratic malfeasance, not the complexities of international commerce and conflict.“Democrats spent two years completely ignoring the country’s single-most pressing issue because they have nothing to say. They know their policies made inflation worse and they own this economic tsunami,” said Dan Conston, head of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a powerful super PAC aligned with the House Republican leadership.Mr. Axelrod said the Democrats’ secret weapon could be their opponents. For all the campaign ads harping on economic issues, many Republican candidates are using extreme language to spotlight more contentious issues: national abortion legislation, denying the validity of the 2020 election, and impeaching President Biden. Given some of the loudest voices in the G.O.P. seem uninterested in economic struggles, voters may not see the opposition party as a credible alternative.But, Ms. Lake said, the Democrats need to make that case.“There’s time; there’s money,” she said. “We’re going to be spending tens of millions of dollars on advertising in the next two weeks, and there’s vulnerability on the Republican side, but only if we articulate the contrast.” More

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      Murkowski Says She Will Rank Peltola First on Her Ballot in Alaska

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      ANCHORAGE — Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, a centrist Republican facing a tough re-election campaign, plans on ranking Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat, first on her ballot this November, crossing party lines to back the incumbent in her race to serve a full term in the House.Sitting in a quiet backstage corner behind exhibitions and vendors at the Alaska Federation of Natives convention this weekend, Ms. Murkowski confirmed to The New York Times on Saturday her support for Ms. Peltola, who earlier this year overcame a chaotic field of four dozen candidates to finish the remainder of Representative Don Young’s term after he died in March.Ms. Murkowski declined to say whether or how she would rank Ms. Peltola’s challengers: Sarah Palin, the former Republican governor and vice-presidential candidate, or Nicholas Begich III, a conservative member of an Alaskan liberal dynasty, both registered Republican candidates, or Chris Bye, a libertarian. Under Alaska’s new ranked-choice system, voters can rank their preferred candidates, which are counted until at least one candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote.Ms. Murkowski brushed off the significance of her comment, describing it as “Lisa being honest” and adding that she was primarily focused on her own race, where she is fending off Kelly Tshibaka, a right-wing challenger endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump and the state’s Republican Party. Ms. Murkowski has also retained broad support from Alaska Native voters in the state, and they proved crucial to her write-in campaign in 2010. (Ms. Peltola told The Washington Post she also planned on voting for Ms. Murkowski, and they posed together for a photo at the convention.)“Alaskans are going to go through the same process that I am, which is evaluating people, looking at their values and whether they represent them, and they will make that determination going forward,” Ms. Murkowski said.But the comment underscored the broad coalition Ms. Peltola is assembling in her bid to remain the sole representative for the state’s 734,000 people, after being sworn in last month as the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress. At the convention, Ms. Peltola was feted with raucous cheers and emotional prayer songs and tributes, as attendees rang cowbells and waved cutouts of her face at the very mention of her name.“We are in Mary’s house, and I know this,” Ms. Palin proclaimed at a candidate forum at the convention. “Doggone it, I never have anything, like, to gripe about — I just wish she’d convert on over to the other party.”Ms. Palin, while quick to lavish Ms. Peltola, her longtime friend, with praise, made no mention of Mr. Begich, who also appeared and who siphoned away some conservative voters in the primary. More

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      Fetterman’s Debate Challenges: Selling Policies and Proving He’s Fit to Serve

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      WASHINGTON — When John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania, faces his Republican opponent in a high-stakes debate on Tuesday night, he will face twin challenges: making the case for his policies while convincing voters he is healthy enough to serve.The debate, the first and only in a race that could determine whether Democrats keep control of the Senate, will look different than any other. Two 70-inch monitors above the heads of the moderators — scrolling the text of their questions, as well as transcribing the answers, attacks and ripostes of the Republican, Dr. Mehmet Oz — will be visible to TV watchers whenever a camera pans to the moderators.Mr. Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor, needs the accommodations because the stroke he had in May left him with an auditory processing disorder, a condition that affects the brain’s ability to filter and interpret sounds, his primary care doctor said last week. He uses closed captioning to follow conversations. Sometimes his speech is halting. Sometimes he stumbles over his words. But he has “no work restrictions,” the doctor said.Democrats say this makes him seem relatable. Disability rights activists say Mr. Fetterman has been a victim of prejudice from Republicans and reporters who focus more on his health than the issues. But Mr. Fetterman — who also has a heart condition that his cardiologist says was exacerbated by his failure to seek care and take medicine — was cagey about answering health questions in the early months of his campaign, which has left him open to bipartisan criticism about a lack of transparency.“He handled the issue badly at first because he was evasive for months, and that’s changed,” said Shanin Specter, a politically active Philadelphia lawyer (and the son of former Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania), who said he is not supporting either candidate. “He should be more worried about the electorate’s concerns about his evasion than about his capacity.”The race pits Mr. Fetterman, a tall, tattooed figure who favors hoodies and shorts and casts himself as a working man, against Dr. Oz, a former TV celebrity — and newcomer to Pennsylvania residency — who was scolded by senators in 2014 for using his TV show to promote foods and dietary supplements that falsely promised weight loss. Dr. Oz has been endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump, who has said his long television run was proof of his political viability.The general election contest has tightened in recent days, as once-skeptical Republican voters fall in line with Dr. Oz. Polls show Mr. Fetterman’s solid lead has nearly vanished this month.Dr. Mehmet Oz’s campaign spent months taunting and openly mocking Mr. Fetterman as mentally unfit to hold office.Laurence Kesterson/Associated PressThe Oz campaign spent months taunting and openly mocking Mr. Fetterman as mentally unfit to hold office. But now, amid a social media backlash from some voters as well as disability rights activists, Dr. Oz and his allies are shifting course. They have insisted the debate will be about policies, not health.“I don’t think that viewers are tuning into this debate to learn about John Fetterman’s health status,” said Barney Keller, a senior strategist for Dr. Oz. “I think they’ll tune into the debate to learn about the contrast between the candidates on the issues.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.A G.O.P. Advantage: Republicans appear to be gaining an edge in the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains why the mood of the electorate has shifted.Ohio Senate Race: Tim Ryan, the Democrat who is challenging J.D. Vance, has turned the state into perhaps the country’s unlikeliest Senate battleground.Losing Faith in the System: As democracy erodes in Wisconsin, many of the state’s citizens feel powerless. But Republicans and Democrats see different culprits and different risks.Secretary of State Races: Facing G.O.P. candidates who spread lies about the 2020 election, Democrats are outspending them 57-to-1 on TV ads for their secretary of state candidates. It still may not be enough.Mr. Fetterman has long sought to turn the Oz campaign’s attacks on his health to his advantage. “Recovering from a stroke in public isn’t easy,” he recently wrote on Twitter. “But in January, I’m going to be much better — and Dr. Oz will still be a fraud.”Still, Democrats worry that any off-key moment by Mr. Fetterman could go viral and affect the outcome of the race.“We are prepared for Oz’s allies and right-wing media to circulate malicious viral videos after the debate that try to paint John in a negative light because of awkward pauses, missing some words, and mushing other words together,” Rebecca Katz, Mr. Fetterman’s senior communications adviser, and Brendan McPhillips, his campaign manager, wrote in a memo on Monday.Although Mr. Fetterman has sat for one-on-one interviews with news outlets using closed captioning, the debate will move much faster — with cross-talk and interruptions — and it is unclear how the technology that Mr. Fetterman relies on will keep up, and how he will respond.His auditory processing issues mean that he typically avoids situations when voices and noise come from multiple directions. He has held no free-for-all meetings with voters or a gaggle of reporters..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Ahead of the debate, the Fetterman campaign sought to lower expectations. “John is five months post-stroke and Oz has spent the last two decades literally in a TV studio; if there’s a home-field advantage, it’s definitely his,’’ said Ms. Katz, who is overseeing his debate preparations.In an earlier debate during the Democratic primary race that predated Mr. Fetterman’s stroke, he was considered the least verbally dexterous of the three candidates, though he went on to win the nomination easily.“Please remember that John did not get where he is by winning debates, or being a polished speaker,” Ms. Katz said. “He got here because he connects with Pennsylvanians.”Mr. Fetterman, who had a stroke days before the Democratic primary in May, later had a pacemaker and defibrillator implanted to address atrial fibrillation — an irregular heart rhythm — which was the underlying cause of the stroke. In June, the campaign released a statement from Mr. Fetterman’s cardiologist, Dr. Ramesh R. Chandra, that said the candidate also has cardiomyopathy, a weakened heart muscle.In a letter released last week, Mr. Fetterman’s primary care doctor, Dr. Clifford Chen, said he is “recovering well” from his stroke. He is continuing to get speech therapy, which experts say is standard treatment for an auditory processing disorder. Experts also say such disorders often improve with time, and do not render a person unable to hold public office.Research shows that people who have had strokes improve more rapidly in the beginning, said Dr. Clinton Wright, director of the division of clinical research at the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke. But Mr. Wright said the data show that patients can continue to improve a year after the stroke.“This is a teachable moment,” said Jean Hall, director of the Institute for Health and Disability Policy Studies at the University of Kansas. “My question would be, What if his stroke had resulted in him being deaf and he needed a sign language interpreter?”Medical experts say that is an apt comparison, though auditory processing disorders have nothing to do with hearing. Rather, people with such disorders have a hard time processing small sound differences in words, because their brains don’t hear sounds in the usual way. Closed captioning makes conversations easier to follow.“Auditory processing has nothing to do with a person’s intelligence or the ideas in their head or their thoughts,” said Dr. Peter Turkeltaub, a neurologist and director of the Cognitive Recovery Lab at Georgetown University Medical Center. “It’s just the input and output: Can you connect those ideas to the words you are hearing, and then can you take the ideas and connect them to your own words?”People with disabilities have long held public office. Franklin D. Roosevelt used a wheelchair, although he tried to hide it from the public. Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas, Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois and Representative Jim Langevin of Rhode Island also use wheelchairs.But visible physical limitations are easier to explain to voters, said Lisa Iezzoni, a professor at Harvard Medical School who researches health disparities on people with disabilities. Because voters can’t clearly see Mr. Fetterman’s disability, however, he must fight “this perception that his mind was altered in some way.”In Mr. Fetterman’s first live television interview since his stroke, which was broadcast on Oct. 11 by NBC News, the reporter Dasha Burns told viewers that before the formal interview, Mr. Fetterman seemed not to follow her attempts at small talk without his monitor.“Quite frankly, it really infuriated me,” said Judy Heumann, a longtime leader in the disability rights movement, who helped pass the Americans With Disabilities Act in 1990 and later served in both the Clinton and Obama administrations. “Voters should be looking at what he’s doing and what he’s saying, and not whether he uses a communications device.”Over the weekend, Dr. Oz steered the conversation away from Mr. Fetterman’s health toward his policies. “I just want him to show up on Tuesday so we can talk to Pennsylvania about our policies, and let them see how extreme his positions have been,” he told Fox News.The Fetterman campaign believes that Dr. Oz and his allies in the right-wing news media went too far in calling attention for months to Mr. Fetterman’s sometimes halting speech and fumbling for words. They say it might work to Mr. Fetterman’s advantage, by lowering expectations for his performance.“Even if he stumbles on a few words here and there, I don’t think it’s a big deal to voters,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist. “There’s a lot more opportunity than risk for John Fetterman in this debate.”Dr. Iezzoni, the Harvard professor, said the debate would be a referendum on voters as well. The World Health Organization, she said, has described having a disability as a “universal human experience.” Seeing Mr. Fetterman use closed captioning — and answer questions in a halting, not necessarily fluent way — will test the public’s tolerance for differences, she said.“It will be interesting to know whether the public has empathy for human frailty, which we all experience in some way or another,” she said. “Will they be willing to look past it or do they demand perfection?”Katie Glueck More

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      Frustrated With Polling? Pollsters Are, Too

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      Mr. Bui is the deputy graphics director for Opinion. From 2015 to 2022, he was a graphics editor for the Upshot. Pollsters are holding their breath. Their time-tested method of randomly dialing up people isn’t working like it used to. Voter turnout in the last two national elections was a blowout compared to years past. […] More