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      Why I’m Cheering Tuesday’s Results

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      I am overjoyed by the results of the midterm election so far, not just because there was no overwhelming Republican wave, but also because America rejected, generally speaking, the path to its own demise.It rejected punditry.The election underscored how meaningless and misleading so much of the prognosticating on competitive races has become. So much of it is just chatter, people guessing, people spinning data into hard facts.Too many pundits want to be the smart one who sees something in the numbers that others miss. They want to be diviners, but end up being deliverers of misinformation. And their misdirection is infectious. Group-think sets in as pundits begin to absorb and repeat what they’ve heard from other pundits. For the public, the preponderance of sources and repetition of the same tired points lends credence to assumptions that are baseless.We were led to believe that momentum had shifted decidedly toward Republicans in the last few weeks. It hadn’t. There was no Red Wave. There were no massive gains for Republicans. We are still waiting to see if they will take control of the House, and the Senate may stay in Democratic hands.We were led to believe that Hispanics were defecting from Democrats in shocking numbers. The truth appears to have been more nuanced. According to exit polls, which we always have to take with a grain of salt, the slippage may have been about 5 percent in some parts of the country, but some candidates (like Beto O’Rourke in Texas) held on to Hispanics at the same rate President Biden did in 2020, or even increased that level of support (like Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada).We were led to believe that Black men were also drifting away from the Democrats. That’s not entirely true. Look at Georgia, where the great fear was that Black men wouldn’t vote for Stacey Abrams: A slightly higher percentage voted for her in this election in that state than voted for Biden in 2020, according to exit polls.We were told that Biden and the Democrats had made a huge mistake by focusing so much attention on abortion and a fragile democracy at the expense of crime and the economy. That, too, was wrong. Abortion was a tremendously animating issue in this election, and voters rebuffed many prominent election deniers in the night’s biggest, most competitive races.In fact, you could say that voters rebuffed Trumpism itself — and the lie that the 2020 election was stolen. It may be too optimistic to say the fever broke, but Tuesday night, we saw enough people in enough states shake it off, allowing us to imagine a day when Trump no longer dominates the Republican Party.That day may come soon. Ron DeSantis rode his horrendous “anti-woke” campaign to a solid victory in Florida, and, sensing Trump’s weakness, will most likely be emboldened in his efforts to challenge him in 2024. To be clear, DeSantis is no improvement from Trump. In many ways, he could be worse. But I also doubt that he can scale the theatrical intolerance he is practicing in Florida up into a national campaign capable of beating the Democrats.DeSantis is still fighting a battle against the 2020 summer of protests. That will feel incredibly stale and out of touch by 2024. His fame is rooted in bullying schoolteachers, students and librarians. And although I never underestimate the cynicism of many voters, Trump has a sinister charisma that De‌‌Santis lacks. The camera hates DeSantis. I don’t believe he can exert the galvanizing effect that Trump could. And finally, as a person who strongly believes that Black people have a real chance to consolidate political power in Southern states and dramatically alter the political landscape, it was incredibly encouraging to see so many Black candidates come so close to victory (like Cheri Beasley in North Carolina) or even win (like Wes Moore in Maryland).The Black people in these states are feeling their power, and they are applying pressure at the polls. Do I believe Beasley — and other Black Democrats like Stacey Abrams — should have won this time? Yes. But am I also encouraged by what their narrow losses portend for the future? Absolutely.Black people keep moving from cities in the North and West back to the South. Eventually, in spite of voter suppression efforts, the hurdle will be cleared. There will be more candidates like Wes Moore, the first Black governor of his state in the South, and that is where the truly transformative change will begin.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected] The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTopinion), and Instagram. More

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      With House Majority in Play, a New Class Takes Shape

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      The Republican ranks grew more extreme and slightly more diverse, while Democrats added several young liberals to their caucus.WASHINGTON — Whoever holds the House majority in January, the new lawmakers will include a fresh crop of Republican election deniers, including a veteran who attended the “Stop the Steal” rally at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021; a handful of G.O.P. members of color; and a diverse group of young Democratic progressives.As vote counting continued across the country on Wednesday, with Republicans grasping to take control and Democrats outperforming expectations in key races, the contours of a new class of lawmakers began to emerge.It featured a sizable contingent of Republicans who have questioned or denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election, many of them hailing from safely red districts, adding to an already influential extreme right in the House. At least 140 of the House Republicans who won election this week are election deniers, at least 15 of them new additions.A handful of Black and Latina Republicans also won, adding a touch more diversity to a mostly white, male conference — though far less than leaders had hoped as many candidates they had recruited for their potential to appeal to a broader set of voters in competitive districts fell short.For Democrats, the election ushered in younger, more diverse members to fill the seats of departing incumbents. Many of those candidates had held state offices or previously sought seats in Congress and are expected to back many of the priorities of the Democratic left wing.Here are some of the new faces:Kristen Zeis for The New York TimesThe RepublicansJen A. Kiggans, a Navy veteran and state senatorAs a woman with military experience, Ms. Kiggans was regarded by Republicans as a prime recruit to put up against a centrist Democrat in a conservative-leaning area. She defeated Representative Elaine Luria on the Eastern Shore of Virginia, propelled in part by state redistricting that tilted the district more decisively to the right.She focused her campaign narrowly on inflation and public safety, and was bolstered by top Republicans, including Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the minority leader who is running to become speaker should his party retake the House, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin. That suggested that she would be more likely to serve as an acolyte to Republican leaders than a thorn in their sides.But though she ran as a mainstream candidate, Ms. Kiggans declined throughout her campaign to say whether she believed Mr. Biden was legitimately elected.Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesDerrick Van Orden, a veteran at the Capitol on Jan. 6.A retired Navy SEAL who rallied at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Mr. Van Orden flipped a key seat for Republicans in western Wisconsin, in a largely rural district currently held by Representative Ron Kind, a 13-term centrist Democrat who did not seek re-election.Who Will Control Congress? Here’s When We’ll Know.Card 1 of 4Much remains uncertain. More

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      2022 Midterm Elections: What We Know So Far

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      Listen and follow ‘The Run-Up’Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Amazon MusicThe votes are still being tallied across the country — but we’re starting to get a picture of what these midterms were all about, and where American politics might be headed. Astead Herndon joins Michael Barbaro, host of “The Daily,” to sift through early midterm election results.Photo Illustration: The New York Times; Photo: Anna Watts for The New York TimesOn today’s episodeMichael Barbaro, host of “The Daily.”Additional resourcesFollow live updates on the midterms and results from top races.Lt. Gov. John Fetterman beat Mehmet Oz after a rocky campaign in Pennsylvania, surprising the G.O.P. and even Democrats.Election skeptics are winning races across the country. So far, nearly 200 Republicans who questioned or denied the results from 2020 have been elected.CreditsThis episode of “The Run-Up” is hosted by More

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      The Republican Wave That Wasn’t

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      Rachel Quester, Rob Szypko, Nina Feldman and Sydney Harper and Paige Cowett, Lisa Chow, M.J. Davis Lin and Dan Powell and Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | StitcherIn the early hours of Wednesday, control of both the House and Senate remained uncertain.Going into the midterms, some analysts expected a repudiation of the Democrats and a surge of Republican victories. But this “red wave” did not materialize. Today, we try to make sense of the surprising results. On today’s episodeAstead W. Herndon, a national political reporter for The New York Times.At the polls in Staten Island on Tuesday. Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York held off her Republican challenger.Anna Watts for The New York TimesBackground readingAs the results continue to come in, follow the latest updates here. There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.Astead W. Herndon More

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      The House Hangs in the Balance, as Fetterman’s Win Boosts Senate Democrats

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      Republican hopes of an emphatic repudiation of President Biden had morphed into a district-by-district slog by Wednesday. But the party still had multiple paths to a House majority.Democrats displayed unexpected resilience in the 2022 midterms, flipping a Republican-held Senate seat in Pennsylvania and rebuffing G.O.P. candidates in a wide array of House seats. But the party’s excruciatingly narrow margins in both chambers meant the battle for power on Capitol Hill remained undecided early Wednesday morning.In the House, Republicans have a multitude of pathways to seize control from Democrats, needing to flip just five seats, and G.O.P. leaders expressed bold confidence about their chances overnight.“When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority,” Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the House Republican leader, predicted to supporters at 2 a.m. Yet when he spoke, only a single House Democratic incumbent had been formally defeated, a sign of how the night fell far short of Republican expectations. A number of Democrats were trailing in races that were still too close to call, including the chairman of the Democratic House campaign arm, Representative Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, whom Mr. McCarthy predicted would ultimately lose. The 2022 midterms were hard-fought — over crime, inflation, abortion, immigration and democracy itself — and the results so far reflect a deeply yet closely divided nation. For Republicans, their hopes of an emphatic repudiation of President Biden and his party had morphed into a district-by-district slog.Republican majorities in one or both chambers would usher in a new era of divided government at a turbulent moment in American politics, all but freezing the Democratic policy agenda for the second half of Mr. Biden’s first term and very likely signaling the start of endless investigations into the administration.On the Friday before the election, Mr. Biden warned in unusually blunt terms what the future would look like if Republicans took both the House and Senate. “It’s going to be a horrible two years,” Mr. Biden said in a Chicago speech to donors.In the weeks before the election, Democrats had been forced to spend time, energy and money deep in blue territory, in liberal parts of California and New York, where Mr. Biden had won with ease two years ago. The tilt of the battleground map was widely seen as a sign of Mr. Biden’s unpopularity.Yet on Tuesday, Democrats mounted a stiff defense in a remarkably diverse set of geographic and demographic corners of America. Incumbents fended off Republican challengers in an upscale suburb in Kansas, a sprawling exurban district in Northern Virginia, a conservative-leaning seat that encompassed Toledo in northwestern Ohio and a district in Central Michigan that drew more than $25 million in outside spending.Representative Mayra Flores, a Republican from South Texas, began Tuesday posting an image on Twitter of a cresting red wave. “TODAY’S FORECAST,” she captioned it. Sixteen hours later, she had an update: “The RED WAVE did not happen.” She had just been defeated by Representative Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat.Overall across the country, Election Day seemed to have unfolded smoothly for millions of Americans. But in some communities, lawsuits were filed and scattered problems were reported, including technical glitches that disrupted ballot counting in Arizona’s Maricopa County.The closeness of the races across the nation and the slow counting process in many states, including California, injected a high level of uncertainty into where the final margin in the House would land. For Mr. McCarthy, a slim majority would complicate both his path to the House speakership and his ability to govern should Republicans take control.John Fetterman and his family after winning the Senate race in Pennsylvania early Wednesday morning.Ruth Fremson/The New York TimesThe biggest win of the night belonged to a Democrat: John Fetterman, the sweatshirt-wearing lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, who defeated Dr. Mehmet Oz in a fierce battle for Senate that cost hundreds of millions of dollars. “I am so humbled,” Mr. Fetterman said after 1 a.m., delivering a victory speech in a black hoodie.His win brightened Democrats’ chances to keep hold of a 50-50 Senate where the party did not have a single seat to spare. The Pennsylvania seat that Mr. Fetterman won is currently held by a Republican, the retiring Senator Pat Toomey. Now, in order to keep the Senate majority, Republicans must flip two other Democratic-held seats, with three potential opportunities still uncalled as of early Wednesday: Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.In Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, led Herschel Walker, a Republican former football star, with nearly all of the vote counted early Wednesday morning. But Mr. Warnock was hovering shy of the 50 percent threshold he would need to avoid a runoff in December.In other key Senate races, Senator Maggie Hassan, Democrat of New Hampshire, won re-election, while two Republicans whom Donald J. Trump had endorsed and helped win primaries — Representative Ted Budd of North Carolina and the best-selling author J.D. Vance in Ohio — both won as well.Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, comfortably won re-election despite facing a Democratic challenger, Representative Val Demings, who was fueled by $73 million in campaign contributions.Florida was a bright spot for Republicans. Mr. McCarthy boasted of winning four House seats there. And Gov. Ron DeSantis coasted to re-election, with his race called by The Associated Press just minutes after the polls closed.The results cemented the fact that the once-battleground state has shifted decidedly to the right in recent years. Nowhere was that clearer than in the heavily Hispanic and populous Miami-Dade County, where Mr. Rubio and Mr. DeSantis were both ahead; Mr. Biden had carried that same county in 2020 even while losing the state.In a victory speech, Mr. DeSantis, who is considered a possible 2024 candidate for president, said Republicans had “rewritten the political map” of the state.Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida greeted the crowd alongside his wife Casey after winning the Florida governor’s race during his election night party in Tampa, Fla., on Tuesday.Scott McIntyre for The New York TimesTwo Democratic candidates for governor once seen as rising stars in the party — Beto O’Rourke in Texas and Stacey Abrams in Georgia — were defeated.But Democrats scored notable successes in other governor’s races, especially in presidential swing states where Republicans had nominated a candidate who had embraced the election denialism espoused by Mr. Trump. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Gov. Tony Evers of Wisconsin turned back such Republican challengers. In Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, the state’s attorney general, dispatched his far-right opponent.In Arizona, Kari Lake, another Trump-aligned Republican, was locked in a race that was too close to call with Katie Hobbs, the Democratic secretary of state.The Democrats also won back the governorships of Massachusetts and Maryland from departing anti-Trump Republicans.The victories came even as polls showed Democrats were battling intense national headwinds, with voters deeply concerned about the economy and inflation. Republicans sought at every turn to tie Democratic candidates to their national party, while Democrats often portrayed their opponents as far outside the political mainstream, especially on issues of abortion.Some Democratic strategists believe the party’s efforts to make abortion one of the defining issues of 2022, after the Supreme Court overturned nearly 50 years of precedent and eliminated the federal right to an abortion in June, had strengthened the party’s hand, galvanizing the Democratic base. Even before the polls closed, people close to the White House were already bracing for Republican-led investigations on Capitol Hill, as far-right members — including Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who was stripped of her committee assignments by Democrats — could join the powerful House Oversight Committee, which has broad subpoena power. “There will be voters in my race who vote for change because of the economy,” said Representative Tom Malinowski, Democrat of New Jersey. “That doesn’t mean they’re voting for chaos. That doesn’t mean they’re voting for Marjorie Taylor Greene to spend the next two years burning down the House of Representatives.”He was trailing early Wednesday, but the race remained uncalled. More

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      Malliotakis Defends N.Y.C. House Seat, Toppling Familiar Democratic Foe

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      Representative Nicole Malliotakis defended her seat on Tuesday against Max Rose, the Democrat whom she unseated two years ago, preserving her status as the lone Republican in New York City’s House delegation, according to The Associated Press.Ms. Malliotakis was widely expected to win re-election in New York’s 11th Congressional District, which encompasses Staten Island and a section of southern Brooklyn, and is the most conservative-leaning in the city.Shortly after The A.P.’s race call, at around 9:45 p.m., Ms. Malliotakis led Mr. Rose by more than 26 percentage points. She held a significant lead with voters in Staten Island, which makes up the bulk of the district.In Ms. Malliotakis’s re-election campaign, she followed her party’s strategy of focusing on the economy and public safety, pinning rising inflation and crime on Democratic leaders and, by extension, on Mr. Rose.In particular, she focused on changes to New York’s bail laws made by state Democrats in 2019, which she blamed for an uptick in crime. Though Mr. Rose was not involved, she noted that he had voiced support for the principles behind bail reform in the past.Mr. Rose focused his campaign heavily on abortion access, arguing that Ms. Malliotakis would support further restrictions in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. He also tried to link Ms. Malliotakis to far-right factions of her party, zeroing in on her voting against certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election after the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.But Ms. Malliotakis, a former state assemblywoman, was able to build on the success she found in 2020, when she beat Mr. Rose by about six percentage points, and kept the seat in Republican hands after it flipped parties in each of the previous two elections. More

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      Voting Takes Center Stage During US Midterm Elections

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      “I want to do everything I can to use my voice to create the kind of democracy that deserves to exist,” one voter said.They had been assured that they were wasting their time. That the fix was in. That a fair outcome was impossible, what with all that Democratic ballot-rigging — or was it Republican voter suppression?But millions of Americans gave voting a go anyway on Tuesday, dutifully turning up across the country to cast ballots at schoolhouses, libraries and V.F.W. posts.After a campaign marked by the direst of claims, it was, in its way, a small act of faith.“It’s going a little bit too far left,” said one voter, Lucas Boyd, 43, explaining what had brought him to a polling place in Haymarket, Va. “We are trying to bring it back to a middle ground, and that is really why I came today.”Cheryl Arnold, who was also casting a ballot in Haymarket, had a different outcome in mind. A sales worker in her 50s, she said her aim was “not furthering the Republican agenda.”But she and Mr. Boyd, a software salesman, shared at least one fundamental belief: that voting might make a difference.“I want to do everything I can to use my voice to create the kind of democracy that deserves to exist,” Ms. Arnold said.A voter dropping off a ballot in American Fork, Utah, on Tuesday.Kim Raff for The New York TimesStill, it was an Election Day of unusual tensions, in keeping with a campaign in which accusations of voting fraud were sometimes cast even before the ballots themselves were, and in which some private citizens took it upon themselves to take up arms and “guard” absentee ballot boxes.“I definitely know where the exits are,” said one poll worker in Flagstaff, Ariz., Brittany Montague. “Now more than ever, we’re so polarized, and there isn’t a lot of trust in the system.”In Arizona on Tuesday morning, reports of dozens of malfunctioning ballot-counting machines in Maricopa County prompted a surge of voter fraud claims across right-wing media.“None of this indicates any fraud,” said Bill Gates, chairman of the Maricopa County board of supervisors, a Republican. “This is a technical issue.”A video captured election workers trying to reassure voters.“No one’s trying to deceive anybody,” one poll worker says.“No, not on Election Day. No, that would never happen,” the person recording the video replies sarcastically.Even before the day began, more than 40 million Americans had cast early ballots, and millions more were joining them on Tuesday.In Michigan, the abortion issue was a big draw at the polls. After the Supreme Court decision reversing Roe v. Wade, Michigan was one of five states that had abortion-related measures on the ballot. In Birmingham, an affluent community outside Detroit, a slow stream of people turned out to vote on Proposal 3, a ballot measure to protect abortion rights.Outside the Baldwin Public Library, where Birmingham city workers had turned metered parking into “voter-only parking” for the day, Alexandra Ayaub said supporting the measure was her main reason for voting.“Michigan should be a safe place for women,” said Ms. Ayaub, 31, who described herself as leaning Democratic.In nearby Warren, Rosemary Sobol also said the initiative was her main motivation for voting — even if she was still undecided.“I’m not completely anti-abortion, but I’m also a Catholic,” said Ms. Sobol, an 81-year-old retired principal. “It’s a very hard decision.”For some voters, it was a day to reconsider past positions.Andrew O’Connell said that he had been born into a Democratic family and that he had long taken pride in switching up his votes between the parties, but at 6:30 Tuesday morning, he could be seen standing outside a busy polling location on Staten Island holding a sign displaying all of the Republicans on the ballot. Everything changed with the social unrest in 2020, he said.“I believe safety took a back seat back when the protests were going on,” Mr. O’Connell said. “We sat back and watched that happen and some folks didn’t think there was anything wrong with it.”A family voting in Miami Beach, Fla., on Tuesday.Scott McIntyre for The New York TimesFor other voters, it was a day to reconsider life choices — like where to live.When Albert Latta, 67, left a polling place in Kenosha, Wis., he had a weary look. The most important issue for him in this election? “Honesty,” he said.Mr. Latta said that he had voted Democratic in the races for governor and the Senate and that he was so tired of deception from Republicans — on election integrity, among other issues, he said — that he was considering picking up and moving across the state line into the blue of Illinois.“How Wisconsin goes in this election may have a lot to do with that decision,” he said. “I call today’s vote the biggest I.Q. test this country has ever taken.”For some voters, a hop across state lines, it appeared, might not do the trick.In the city of Folsom, in one of liberal California’s more conservative regions, John Butruce, 66, offered a fairly succinct synopsis of his take on things before casting his ballot.“I don’t like the taxes, I don’t like the inflation, I don’t like the crime,” Mr. Butruce said. “I don’t like the state of the country or the state of the state.”In Kenosha, where voters were deciding whether to re-elect Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, the shadow of the demonstrations and riots that tore through the city in August 2020 after a police shooting loomed large.“I just want to get him out,” said Abraham Gloria, 40. “He could have stopped what happened with the riots, and he didn’t.”But as she headed into a church in Kenosha to vote, Phyllis Sheets, 60, said she was supporting the Democrats. Democracy, she said, depended on it.“I’m tired of people co-signing foolishness,” Ms. Sheets said. “It’s like people are drinking the silly juice around here: conspiracy theories, not conceding elections, QAnon, Jan. 6. It’s not American.”Christine Grant looking over information while filling out her ballot in Detroit on Tuesday.Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesNot everyone was thinking about this election, even as it was still unfolding. They were too busy talking about the next one, and news of a “very big announcement” from a Republican politician in Florida.In Warren, Mich., Mike Smith, 58, had just one quibble.“I hope he comes back sooner than 2024,” Mr. Smith said. “I still don’t accept 2020.”Word that Donald J. Trump might soon make formal what has long been expected played out at polling sites across a polarized country to a mix of elation and fear.“I am terrified,” said Liz Lambert, 57, a marketing manager in Scottsdale, Ariz., clutching a coffee cup as she headed to work after casting her ballot. “This country has been through enough. We need stability and maturity and leadership.”In Haymarket, Va., Gloria Ugbaja declined to get engaged by a possible Trump announcement about another run for president.“I thought it was a distraction,” said Ms. Ugbaja, 47, who works in health care management.“Whether he announces or not is his business,” she said. “Every American has to keep moving forward. Whether he tries to run or not, it indirectly does not affect what the average American has to do on a daily basis.”Reporting was contributed by More

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      Election Day in New York: Who’s Running and How to Vote

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      Democrats are aiming to keep control of the governor’s mansion, the State Legislature and a majority of New York’s House seats, but Republicans seem to have momentum.An unusually frenetic midterms election cycle in New York will come to an end on Tuesday, when voters across the state fill out their ballots in a number of competitive races that have the power to reshape the state’s political future.With Democrats anxiously trying to hold on to their thin majority in Congress and Republicans eager to take power, New York has become a key battleground, with a handful of races that could be key in determining control of the House of Representatives.The State Legislature is also being contested, with Republicans hoping to erase the Democrats’ supermajority, as are other statewide races including the re-election bid of Letitia James, the state attorney general.But perhaps no contest on New York’s ballots has been more dramatic than the unexpectedly tight governor’s race. Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat who took office 14 months ago, entered with a significant war chest and a sizable lead in polls. But her Republican challenger, Representative Lee Zeldin, has chipped away at Ms. Hochul’s advantages, surprising Democrats in a liberal state that hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office since 2002.Over the last several months, The New York Times has covered the issues at the heart of the governor’s race and the moneyed forces behind the candidates and has examined how New York has been roiled by the political debates dividing the country.As voters head to the polls, here is a guide to what is likely to weigh on their minds.The candidates for governorMs. Hochul, 64, became New York’s first female governor last year after her predecessor, Andrew M. Cuomo, resigned. A moderate Democrat from Buffalo, Ms. Hochul was not particularly well known outside western New York before she became governor.Not long after assuming office, Ms. Hochul moved quickly to rally state party leaders behind her. As she dominated her primary campaign, she amassed a huge fund-raising haul for the general election.Gov. Kathy Hochul is in an unexpectedly tight race.Tom Brenner for The New York TimesMr. Zeldin, 42, has represented eastern Long Island in Congress since 2014. He was favored by party leaders in his primary but had to fight off challengers in a four-way race before turning his focus to defeating Ms. Hochul.He has surged in the polls over the last two months, surprising Democrats. But behind his rise are years of planning, well-timed alliances with powerful Republicans, an embrace of former President Donald J. Trump and a knack for reinvention.The issuesMr. Zeldin has mostly focused his campaign for governor on crime and public safety in New York City. He has accused Ms. Hochul of being too lenient on crime and has focused heavily on repealing the state’s bail laws, which many Republicans and moderate Democrats, including the city’s mayor, Eric Adams, have blamed for an uptick in crime, though available data do not show a clear link.Mr. Zeldin has also denounced efforts by progressive Democrats in Albany and New York City to overhaul the criminal justice system and has vowed to fire Manhattan’s district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, if elected.Ms. Hochul earlier this year worked with the State Legislature to tighten the bail laws but has said that Mr. Zeldin is overly focused on the issue. With polls showing Mr. Zeldin’s message appearing to resonate, she has in recent weeks trumpeted her push to strengthen New York’s so-called red flag laws and tried to limit where New Yorkers can carry a concealed firearm. Mr. Zeldin opposes limiting access to guns.Representative Lee Zeldin has focused on crime and public safety.Brittainy Newman for The New York TimesThe candidates have also battled over how to boost safety on the city’s subway, which is controlled by New York’s governor. Violent crimes on the subway this year are only about 2.6 percent of New York City’s total, but the rate of such crimes — murder, rape, felony assault and robbery — per subway ride has more than doubled since 2019Ms. Hochul has also tried to draw a sharp contrast with Mr. Zeldin after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn a constitutional right to abortion. Earlier this year, she announced a $35 million fund to expand abortion access in New York and moved to put the right to abortion in the State Constitution.Mr. Zeldin voted consistently to limit abortion rights in Congress. But as he has tried to win support from moderate Democrats, he has pledged not to change the state’s existing laws.Following the moneyAs the race between Ms. Hochul and Mr. Zeldin has become more competitive, both candidates have attracted a flurry of outside spending.Mr. Zeldin has benefited from more than $11 million spent by Ronald S. Lauder, the billionaire cosmetics heir who has been backing conservative causes in the state. Mr. Lauder’s money has largely gone to two super PACs, which the state’s top elections watchdog is investigating over charges that they improperly coordinated with Mr. Zeldin’s campaign.Ms. Hochul has spent the last year putting together a $50 million war chest, often through fund-raising events that Republicans frequently attacked as ethically questionable. Many of her donations have come from the gambling industry, which is eagerly awaiting new licenses for casinos in and around New York City.She has also been taking money from appointees to boards and commissions, despite an executive order designed to prevent such donations.A quick guide to House racesMany states in the country used their redistricting process to lower the number of truly competitive House districts. But after an attempted Democratic gerrymander led to a court battle and new maps, New York has more competitive races than might be expected.They include:Three House seats on Long Island, in suburban swing districts where Republicans hope to chip away at recent Democratic support.The rematch in Staten Island and southern Brooklyn, where former Representative Max Rose is distancing himself from national Democrats in a bid to defeat Representative Nicole Malliotakis, the Republican who unseated him in 2020.The fight in the 17th District in the Hudson Valley, where Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, a Democrat who controls the party’s House campaign arm, appears vulnerable.A neighboring seat near Poughkeepsie, where Representative Pat Ryan, a Democrat, who won a special election just months ago, is trying to win a neighboring seat.A Syracuse-area district that is a rare chance for Democrats to flip a Republican-held seat by appealing to moderate voters.When and where to votePolls will be open on Election Day from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. You can find your polling place at voterlookup.elections.ny.gov, a State Board of Elections website. If you live in New York City, you can also call 1-866-VOTE-NYC.Absentee ballots must be returned by mail, with a postmark no later than Nov. 8, or in person at a polling site or a county Board of Elections office by 9 p.m. on Election Day.Voters who encounter any difficulties can call the attorney general’s election protection hotline at 1-866-390-2992. More